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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011510
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
910 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL
READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE SHORT-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EXCEPT THE WRF WAS
THE OUTLIER IN HOW IT HANDLED THE PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING S OUT OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TONIGHT. WILL
DISCUSS THIS MORE BELOW.

UPPER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. MIXING WILL BE UP TO AROUND 750 MB
WHICH PUTS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS VORTICITY DROPS S OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WRF TRIES TO BRING THIS
FEATURE INTO E MT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MON
AND MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE VORTICITY INTO SD/NE. THE WRF
SHIFTS THE WAVE W INTO WY AND SE MT. AS A RESULT...THE WRF
GENERATES SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SE ZONES...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
ARE DRY. WILL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE WOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MON. MIXING WILL BE UP TO
750-700 MB SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MON NIGHT
UNDER THE RIDGE.

CONTEMPLATED THE NEED FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WAS
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL NOT SUPPORT IT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN A STRONGER LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS WHICH PROMOTES BETTER
MIXING AND GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY BUT STILL LEFT A HINT OF
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY BEGINS A COOLING TREND WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ON SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF THE
LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION PATTERN. SUSPECT THAT
MAY SEE MORE THUNDER ACTIVITY THIS ROUND GIVEN ADDITIONAL SOLAR
INSOLATION POTENTIAL. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 038/068 042/075 046/079 049/080 051/075 048/064
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    44/W
LVM 059 031/068 037/074 039/077 043/078 043/072 043/063
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    23/T    44/W
HDN 063 035/068 037/075 041/081 043/082 045/076 044/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    44/W
MLS 063 039/070 042/076 046/081 049/081 052/078 049/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
4BQ 060 034/067 037/074 041/080 045/082 048/079 047/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    34/W
BHK 061 036/068 040/074 043/076 045/078 048/075 045/066
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    23/W
SHR 058 033/063 035/070 038/076 040/079 042/073 041/065
    0/U 00/U    10/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010837
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
237 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE SHORT-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EXCEPT THE WRF WAS
THE OUTLIER IN HOW IT HANDLED THE PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING S OUT OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TONIGHT. WILL
DISCUSS THIS MORE BELOW.

UPPER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. MIXING WILL BE UP TO AROUND 750 MB
WHICH PUTS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS VORTICITY DROPS S OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WRF TRIES TO BRING THIS
FEATURE INTO E MT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MON
AND MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE VORTICITY INTO SD/NE. THE WRF
SHIFTS THE WAVE W INTO WY AND SE MT. AS A RESULT...THE WRF
GENERATES SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SE ZONES...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
ARE DRY. WILL SIDE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE WOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MON. MIXING WILL BE UP TO
750-700 MB SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MON NIGHT
UNDER THE RIDGE.

CONTEMPLATED THE NEED FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WAS
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL NOT SUPPORT IT SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN A STRONGER LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS WHICH PROMOTES BETTER
MIXING AND GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY BUT STILL LEFT A HINT OF
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY BEGINS A COOLING TREND WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ON SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF THE
LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION PATTERN. SUSPECT THAT
MAY SEE MORE THUNDER ACTIVITY THIS ROUND GIVEN ADDITIONAL SOLAR
INSOLATION POTENTIAL. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 038/068 042/075 046/079 049/080 051/075 048/064
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    44/W
LVM 059 031/068 037/074 039/077 043/078 043/072 043/063
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    23/T    44/W
HDN 063 035/068 037/075 041/081 043/082 045/076 044/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    44/W
MLS 063 039/070 042/076 046/081 049/081 052/078 049/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
4BQ 060 034/067 037/074 041/080 045/082 048/079 047/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    34/W
BHK 061 036/068 040/074 043/076 045/078 048/075 045/066
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    23/W
SHR 058 033/063 035/070 038/076 040/079 042/073 041/065
    0/U 00/U    10/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010340
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
940 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

LOWERED POPS GIVEN RADAR TRENDS. STILL LEFT SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP NEAR THE NORTHEAST-FACING SLOPES IN MY SOUTHERN CWA DUE TO
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. CLEARING SKIES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ADDITIONAL CLEARING TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO A LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. AT THIS TIME THINK THAT FOG
WOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF BILLINGS WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND A SMALLER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED. REST OF
FORECAST LEFT UNCHANGED. RMS/MEIER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE VERY COOL AND
SOMETIMES WET WEATHER THE PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY BE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING SUN
ACROSS THE EAST WAS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH CU BY LATE MORNING
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING AS PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE. THE CU FIELD
WILL QUICKLY ERODE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND SHERIDAN AREAS. GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES...FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS AND ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE AND BIG HORN RIVER AREAS EAST TO MILES CITY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY & MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM EACH
DAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...SOMETHING THE AREA HAS NOT SEEN IN OVER
A WEEK. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...


MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY.
REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION MENTION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS AND HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DURING
THIS PERIOD. NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY
THURSDAY WITH UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT AND UNSTABLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEGIN TO INTRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR
TO BE COOLER AND WETTER AS UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA
AND DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE DOMINATES OUR REGION. CONTINUED WITH
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO NORMAL. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...


CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. SOME LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL CAUSE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT.
A SMALL AREA OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SOUTH OF KBIL COULD
GENERATE SOME LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. RMS/MEIER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/061 039/066 042/074 046/076 048/077 049/072 046/064
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
LVM 031/060 030/066 036/072 039/075 042/076 043/071 042/061
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
HDN 034/062 035/066 037/074 040/077 042/079 044/074 044/065
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
MLS 036/063 038/069 040/074 045/078 048/078 050/074 048/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
4BQ 032/060 034/064 037/072 040/077 044/078 046/075 045/065
    00/U    01/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
BHK 031/061 036/067 039/072 041/074 043/075 046/071 043/062
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
SHR 028/059 032/065 034/068 037/072 040/075 041/071 040/062
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    45/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302113
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE VERY COOL AND
SOMETIMES WET WEATHER THE PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY BE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING SUN
ACROSS THE EAST WAS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH CU BY LATE MORNING
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING AS PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE. THE CU FIELD
WILL QUICKLY ERODE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND SHERIDAN AREAS. GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES...FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS AND ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE AND BIG HORN RIVER AREAS EAST TO MILES CITY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY & MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM EACH
DAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...SOMETHING THE AREA HAS NOT SEEN IN OVER
A WEEK. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY.
REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION MENTION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS AND HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DURING
THIS PERIOD. NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY
THURSDAY WITH UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT AND UNSTABLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEGIN TO INTRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR
TO BE COOLER AND WETTER AS UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA
AND DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE DOMINATES OUR REGION. CONTINUED WITH
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO NORMAL. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE NOTED
INTO THE EVENING INTO THE FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KLVM.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/061 039/066 042/074 046/076 048/077 049/072 046/064
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
LVM 031/060 030/066 036/072 039/075 042/076 043/071 042/061
    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
HDN 034/062 035/066 037/074 040/077 042/079 044/074 044/065
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
MLS 036/063 038/069 040/074 045/078 048/078 050/074 048/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
4BQ 032/060 034/064 037/072 040/077 044/078 046/075 045/065
    10/U    01/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
BHK 031/061 036/067 039/072 041/074 043/075 046/071 043/062
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
SHR 028/059 032/065 034/068 037/072 040/075 041/071 040/062
    30/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    45/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302113
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE VERY COOL AND
SOMETIMES WET WEATHER THE PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY BE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING SUN
ACROSS THE EAST WAS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH CU BY LATE MORNING
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING AS PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE. THE CU FIELD
WILL QUICKLY ERODE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND SHERIDAN AREAS. GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES...FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS AND ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE AND BIG HORN RIVER AREAS EAST TO MILES CITY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY & MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM EACH
DAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...SOMETHING THE AREA HAS NOT SEEN IN OVER
A WEEK. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY.
REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION MENTION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS AND HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DURING
THIS PERIOD. NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY
THURSDAY WITH UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT AND UNSTABLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEGIN TO INTRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR
TO BE COOLER AND WETTER AS UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA
AND DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE DOMINATES OUR REGION. CONTINUED WITH
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO NORMAL. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE NOTED
INTO THE EVENING INTO THE FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KLVM.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/061 039/066 042/074 046/076 048/077 049/072 046/064
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
LVM 031/060 030/066 036/072 039/075 042/076 043/071 042/061
    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
HDN 034/062 035/066 037/074 040/077 042/079 044/074 044/065
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
MLS 036/063 038/069 040/074 045/078 048/078 050/074 048/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
4BQ 032/060 034/064 037/072 040/077 044/078 046/075 045/065
    10/U    01/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
BHK 031/061 036/067 039/072 041/074 043/075 046/071 043/062
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
SHR 028/059 032/065 034/068 037/072 040/075 041/071 040/062
    30/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    45/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301535
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
935 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITH
THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPPER LOW OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOME ENERGY AND CLOUDS NORTHWEST ACROSS
WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS IS BATTLING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE THAT ARE MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHERN ROSEBUD...CUSTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES. A COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE OCCURRING AS WELL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS.
AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
THESE AREAS THAT MAY SEE A BIT OF SUN.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
WHERE SUNSHINE OCCURS...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE COUNTERACTED A BIT
BETTER WITH RISING HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH WAS NOT CASE
ON FRIDAY. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES NO OTHER UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z
WAS WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND SNOW
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AS WELL AS OVER WY. MODELS
DRIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NE TODAY AND ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS ACTUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE N AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP. MODELS HAD MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...RETREATING SW THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COLUMN. DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THE MODELS
DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FROM KBIL W AND S. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE
SOURCE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W AND S THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED
POPS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SHERIDAN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING THE
MOISTURE S OF THE AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING W AND S OF
KBIL...THEN HAD SOME LOW LINGERING MOUNTAIN POPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA ON SUN. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. DETAILS ON IMPACTS FROM THIS
CHANGE ARE UNCERTAIN AS GFS KEEPS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF ENERGY
WELL DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS AN INTERACTION
WHICH COULD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN MONTANA. EITHER WAY
PRETTY DISTINCT CHANGE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER AND THEN BY NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO
MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSHR. ALL FOOTHILLS WILL BE
FAVORED FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED...INCLUDING KSHR AND KLVM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 036/060 038/065 040/070 044/073 046/075 047/072
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
LVM 050 032/058 031/065 036/069 038/073 040/074 042/070
    3/W 20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
HDN 056 034/062 035/066 037/071 039/074 041/076 043/074
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
MLS 059 036/063 038/068 040/072 043/075 047/076 048/073
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 054 032/060 034/064 037/070 039/074 042/075 044/073
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 057 032/062 035/066 037/070 040/072 042/072 043/069
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 049 031/057 032/061 034/065 036/069 038/072 040/070
    6/W 30/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300822
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
222 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z
WAS WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND SNOW
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AS WELL AS OVER WY. MODELS
DRIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NE TODAY AND ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS ACTUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE N AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP. MODELS HAD MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...RETREATING SW THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COLUMN. DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THE MODELS
DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FROM KBIL W AND S. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE
SOURCE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W AND S THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED
POPS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SHERIDAN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING THE
MOISTURE S OF THE AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING W AND S OF
KBIL...THEN HAD SOME LOW LINGERING MOUNTAIN POPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA ON SUN. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. DETAILS ON IMPACTS FROM THIS
CHANGE ARE UNCERTAIN AS GFS KEEPS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF ENERGY
WELL DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS AN INTERACTION
WHICH COULD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN MONTANA. EITHER WAY
PRETTY DISTINCT CHANGE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER AND THEN BY NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO
MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSHR. FOOTHILLS WILL
BE FAVORED FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE CEILINGS OF 4KFT TO 7KFT CAN BE EXPECTED. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052 036/060 038/065 040/070 044/073 046/075 047/072
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
LVM 050 032/058 031/065 036/069 038/073 040/074 042/070
    3/W 20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
HDN 056 034/062 035/066 037/071 039/074 041/076 043/074
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
MLS 059 036/063 038/068 040/072 043/075 047/076 048/073
    1/E 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 054 032/060 034/064 037/070 039/074 042/075 044/073
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 057 032/062 035/066 037/070 040/072 042/072 043/069
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 049 031/057 032/061 034/065 036/069 038/072 040/070
    8/W 30/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300822
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
222 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z
WAS WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND SNOW
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AS WELL AS OVER WY. MODELS
DRIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NE TODAY AND ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS ACTUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE N AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP. MODELS HAD MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...RETREATING SW THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COLUMN. DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THE MODELS
DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FROM KBIL W AND S. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE
SOURCE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W AND S THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED
POPS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SHERIDAN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING THE
MOISTURE S OF THE AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING W AND S OF
KBIL...THEN HAD SOME LOW LINGERING MOUNTAIN POPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA ON SUN. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. DETAILS ON IMPACTS FROM THIS
CHANGE ARE UNCERTAIN AS GFS KEEPS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF ENERGY
WELL DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS AN INTERACTION
WHICH COULD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN MONTANA. EITHER WAY
PRETTY DISTINCT CHANGE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER AND THEN BY NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO
MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSHR. FOOTHILLS WILL
BE FAVORED FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE CEILINGS OF 4KFT TO 7KFT CAN BE EXPECTED. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052 036/060 038/065 040/070 044/073 046/075 047/072
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
LVM 050 032/058 031/065 036/069 038/073 040/074 042/070
    3/W 20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
HDN 056 034/062 035/066 037/071 039/074 041/076 043/074
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
MLS 059 036/063 038/068 040/072 043/075 047/076 048/073
    1/E 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 054 032/060 034/064 037/070 039/074 042/075 044/073
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 057 032/062 035/066 037/070 040/072 042/072 043/069
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 049 031/057 032/061 034/065 036/069 038/072 040/070
    8/W 30/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300234
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
834 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
DYNAMIC UPPER LOW IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN EASTERN COLORADO...BUT
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT UP THRU WY INTO OUR
CWA THIS EVENING...FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA
OF PV ALONG THE WY/ID BORDER. THIS IS PRODUCING MAINLY INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS SO FAR BUT THERE ARE A FEW WEAK ECHOES ON BLX RADAR IN
BIG HORN COUNTY UP THRU TREASURE COUNTY...AS WELL AS OVER OUR SW
MTNS. MAIN AREA OF LOW POPS OVER OUR MTNS/FOOTHILLS LOOKS GOOD FOR
TONIGHT BUT HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF SPRINKLES TO CENTRAL PARTS
INCLUDING BILLINGS. STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR
CWA BUT OUR SOUTH WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PCPN BY
TOMORROW. FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MINOR POP
ADJUSTMENTS...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND HAVE RAISED EXPECTED FORECAST LOWS JUST A BIT. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HI RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

BY SATURDAY...THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW AND AREA OF VORTICITY TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE FIRST LOW WILL EJECT A FEW AREAS OF
VORTICITY...AS WELL AS AN AREA OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS WYOMING
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF MONTANA MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING TO
RAPID CITY AND AREAS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LIKELY POPS FOR THE SHERIDAN
AREA SO WE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND
SHIFT SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING JUST A CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDA AS THE
ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN
WYOMING MONDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS TAKES THE LOW AND VORT AREA INTO
MINNESOTA. POPS WERE NOT ADDED INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS SHOWER CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST ISSUANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
SATURDAY AND MIDDLE 50S TO POSSIBLY 60 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS
ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITH DRY AND
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DOES SHOW A
SHORTWAVE WITH SHOWERS WORKING NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
CWA ON MONDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS 12Z GFS
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW A DRY
SCENARIO.

SURFACE FLOWS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND THE REST
OF THE WEEK PROMOTING BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
THE 70S OR BETTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY,
WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THURSDAY, EXPANDING EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SHOWERS FOR THU-FRI,
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WINDS LOOK LIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL THIS EVENING...EXPANDING
TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MVFR TO
TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND WEST OF KMLS LATE TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR -SHRA WILL BE VC KSHR ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RMS/STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/053 036/060 039/065 041/071 044/074 046/075 047/072
    13/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
LVM 034/051 032/057 032/065 036/071 039/074 041/074 042/070
    22/W    21/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    12/W    22/W
HDN 035/056 034/061 035/066 037/071 039/075 041/076 044/074
    13/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
MLS 039/059 036/063 039/067 040/072 044/075 046/075 048/073
    11/E    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
4BQ 035/055 032/059 034/064 037/071 040/074 042/075 044/075
    23/W    10/U    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
BHK 036/056 032/060 036/065 037/070 041/072 042/073 043/070
    01/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
SHR 035/050 028/058 032/060 034/066 036/070 038/073 040/071
    36/W    31/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292052
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
252 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HI RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

BY SATURDAY...THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW AND AREA OF VORTICITY TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE FIRST LOW WILL EJECT A FEW AREAS OF
VORTICITY...AS WELL AS AN AREA OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS WYOMING
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF MONTANA MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING TO
RAPID CITY AND AREAS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LIKELY POPS FOR THE SHERIDAN
AREA SO WE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND
SHIFT SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING JUST A CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN
WYOMING MONDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS TAKES THE LOW AND VORT AREA INTO
MINNESOTA. POPS WERE NOT ADDED INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS SHOWER CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST ISSUANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
SATURDAY AND MIDDLE 50S TO POSSIBLY 60 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS
ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITH DRY AND
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DOES SHOW A
SHORTWAVE WITH SHOWERS WORKING NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
CWA ON MONDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS 12Z GFS
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW A DRY
SCENARIO.

SURFACE FLOWS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND THE REST
OF THE WEEK PROMOTING BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
THE 70S OR BETTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY,
WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THURSDAY, EXPANDING EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SHOWERS FOR THU-FRI,
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WINDS LOOK LIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST AND
SOUTH OF KBIL THIS EVENING...THEN EXPANDING TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA AFTER 06Z SAT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AFTER 12Z SAT NEAR KSHR.
CONDITIONS COULD BE MVFR SOUTH AND WEST OF KMLS AFTER 08Z SATURDAY.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/053 036/060 039/065 041/071 044/074 046/075 047/072
    23/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
LVM 034/051 032/057 032/065 036/071 039/074 041/074 042/070
    32/W    21/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    12/W    22/W
HDN 035/056 034/061 035/066 037/071 039/075 041/076 044/074
    23/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
MLS 038/059 036/063 039/067 040/072 044/075 046/075 048/073
    11/E    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
4BQ 035/055 032/059 034/064 037/071 040/074 042/075 044/075
    23/W    10/U    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
BHK 035/056 032/060 036/065 037/070 041/072 042/073 043/070
    01/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
SHR 035/050 028/058 032/060 034/066 036/070 038/073 040/071
    46/W    31/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292052
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
252 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS BROAD TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HI RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

BY SATURDAY...THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW AND AREA OF VORTICITY TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE FIRST LOW WILL EJECT A FEW AREAS OF
VORTICITY...AS WELL AS AN AREA OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS WYOMING
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF MONTANA MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING TO
RAPID CITY AND AREAS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS EXCEPT FOR CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LIKELY POPS FOR THE SHERIDAN
AREA SO WE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND
SHIFT SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING JUST A CHANCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN
WYOMING MONDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS TAKES THE LOW AND VORT AREA INTO
MINNESOTA. POPS WERE NOT ADDED INTO OUR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS SHOWER CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST ISSUANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
SATURDAY AND MIDDLE 50S TO POSSIBLY 60 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCATIONS
ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WITH DRY AND
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF DOES SHOW A
SHORTWAVE WITH SHOWERS WORKING NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR
CWA ON MONDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS 12Z GFS
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLES AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW A DRY
SCENARIO.

SURFACE FLOWS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND THE REST
OF THE WEEK PROMOTING BETTER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
THE 70S OR BETTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY,
WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE
THURSDAY, EXPANDING EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SHOWERS FOR THU-FRI,
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WINDS LOOK LIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST AND
SOUTH OF KBIL THIS EVENING...THEN EXPANDING TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA AFTER 06Z SAT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AFTER 12Z SAT NEAR KSHR.
CONDITIONS COULD BE MVFR SOUTH AND WEST OF KMLS AFTER 08Z SATURDAY.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/053 036/060 039/065 041/071 044/074 046/075 047/072
    23/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
LVM 034/051 032/057 032/065 036/071 039/074 041/074 042/070
    32/W    21/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    12/W    22/W
HDN 035/056 034/061 035/066 037/071 039/075 041/076 044/074
    23/W    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/W
MLS 038/059 036/063 039/067 040/072 044/075 046/075 048/073
    11/E    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
4BQ 035/055 032/059 034/064 037/071 040/074 042/075 044/075
    23/W    10/U    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
BHK 035/056 032/060 036/065 037/070 041/072 042/073 043/070
    01/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/W
SHR 035/050 028/058 032/060 034/066 036/070 038/073 040/071
    46/W    31/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291548
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
948 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO PRECIP CHANCES
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING THAT IS ROTATING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. HOWEVER...BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT...THE WARM SUN WILL ALLOW CU
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE CLEARING
AREAS. IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE AT
TIMES TODAY...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IF ANY OF DURING THE
PAST 6 DAYS. HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS QUITE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT ANY SUNSHINE WILL MAKE THINGS A BIT UNSTABLE.
THEREFORE...I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS AROUND BILLINGS EASTWARD TO THE
DAKOTA BORDERS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 12
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. UPPER LOWS WERE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...OVER W MT AND THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THE W MT LOW
WASHES OUT WHILE THE FOUR-CORNERS LOW MOVES ENE TODAY SENDING ONLY
WEAK VORTICITY INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE PROGS SHOWED ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIMITED QPF CONFINED TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
ALSO WERE OVERDOING THEIR QPF OVER WY EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS
BACKED OFF POPS TODAY AND CONFINED THEM TO OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THE WRF AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SO ADDED THIS TO
THE FORECAST. HRRR SHOWED POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION W OF KBIL THIS
MORNING AND THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE WITH LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER KBIL...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

THE FOUR-CORNERS LOW WILL MOVE INTO KS/NE TONIGHT AND ENERGY WILL
BE LIMITED OVER THE AREA. MODELS DID TRY TO BRING SOME MOISTURE N
TOWARD THE AREA AROUND THE LOW. QPF CONTINUED TO BE CONFINED TO
AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SO WENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.
BROUGHT SMALL CHANCES INTO FAR SE MT TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORS.
SAT WAS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER KS/NE AND A
RIDGE SETTLING N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FORMING A REX BLOCK. TRIMMED BACK INHERITED POPS TO LOW CHANCES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. HAD HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY...CLOSEST TO GOOD MOISTURE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND
MOISTURE GETS SUPPRESSED S. HAD POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE EVENING THEN LOWERED THEM OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH MIXING TO ONLY AROUND 800
MB AND 850 TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +8 DEGREES C. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO ALBERTA WILL
BEGIN TO DRY THE AIRMASS OUT ON SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY BUT WARMING TO
NORMAL ON MONDAY. SURFACE FLOWS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON
TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK PROMOTING BETTER MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE 70S OR BETTER OR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EVOLVES INTO MORE OF A LONG
WAVE RIDGE ASSURING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK
RELATIVELY LITE. BORSUM.
&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 037/053 037/059 037/065 041/071 044/074 046/074
    2/W 12/W    10/B    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 051 034/051 034/056 032/065 036/072 039/073 041/073
    2/W 32/W    21/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 055 035/056 034/061 035/066 038/071 039/075 041/074
    2/W 12/W    10/B    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 056 038/059 036/063 037/067 041/071 044/074 045/073
    2/W 11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 051 035/055 032/059 034/064 038/070 040/073 042/072
    2/W 22/W    10/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 053 035/057 033/061 035/065 038/069 040/070 041/069
    2/W 11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
SHR 052 035/051 032/056 032/060 035/066 036/070 038/071
    2/W 25/W    31/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290816
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
216 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. UPPER LOWS WERE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...OVER W MT AND THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THE W MT LOW
WASHES OUT WHILE THE FOUR-CORNERS LOW MOVES ENE TODAY SENDING ONLY
WEAK VORTICITY INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE PROGS SHOWED ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIMITED QPF CONFINED TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
ALSO WERE OVERDOING THEIR QPF OVER WY EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS
BACKED OFF POPS TODAY AND CONFINED THEM TO OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THE WRF AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SO ADDED THIS TO
THE FORECAST. HRRR SHOWED POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION W OF KBIL THIS
MORNING AND THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE WITH LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER KBIL...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

THE FOUR-CORNERS LOW WILL MOVE INTO KS/NE TONIGHT AND ENERGY WILL
BE LIMITED OVER THE AREA. MODELS DID TRY TO BRING SOME MOISTURE N
TOWARD THE AREA AROUND THE LOW. QPF CONTINUED TO BE CONFINED TO
AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SO WENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.
BROUGHT SMALL CHANCES INTO FAR SE MT TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORS.
SAT WAS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER KS/NE AND A
RIDGE SETTLING N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FORMING A REX BLOCK. TRIMMED BACK INHERITED POPS TO LOW CHANCES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. HAD HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY...CLOSEST TO GOOD MOISTURE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND
MOISTURE GETS SUPPRESSED S. HAD POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE EVENING THEN LOWERED THEM OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH MIXING TO ONLY AROUND 800
MB AND 850 TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +8 DEGREES C. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO ALBERTA WILL
BEGIN TO DRY THE AIRMASS OUT ON SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY BUT WARMING TO
NORMAL ON MONDAY. SURFACE FLOWS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON
TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK PROMOTING BETTER MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE 70S OR BETTER OR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EVOLVES INTO MORE OF A LONG
WAVE RIDGE ASSURING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK
RELATIVELY LITE. BORSUM.
&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING
IS IN LOWER AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS BUT DO NOT EXPECT TERMINAL
SITES TO BE IMPACTED. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT REMAINING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 037/053 037/059 037/065 041/071 044/074 046/074
    1/B 12/W    10/B    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 051 034/051 034/056 032/065 036/072 039/073 041/073
    2/W 32/W    21/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 055 035/056 034/061 035/066 038/071 039/075 041/074
    1/B 12/W    10/B    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 056 038/059 036/063 037/067 041/071 044/074 045/073
    1/B 11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 051 035/055 032/059 034/064 038/070 040/073 042/072
    1/E 22/W    10/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 053 035/057 033/061 035/065 038/069 040/070 041/069
    1/E 11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
SHR 052 035/051 032/056 032/060 035/066 036/070 038/071
    1/B 25/W    31/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
727 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING THIS EVENING AS WE
APPROACH SUNSET AND LOSE WHAT LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING WE HAD. MAIN
BAND OF LIGHT PCPN AS OF 720 PM IS FROM NEAR MILES CITY TO NORTH
OF GREAT FALLS...IE ONLY A SMALL PART OF OUR CWA...AS WEAK
EASTERLY ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS CONFINED TO THIS REGION. DESCENT HAS
OVERTAKEN MOST OF OUR REGION WITH WEAK CUT OFF LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MT...AND MAIN WESTERN CONUS LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. SHALLOW INSTABILITY DOES EXIST IN OUR CWA HOWEVER...
EXTENDING TO ONLY ABOUT 700MB...AND THIS ALONG WITH EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST A RISK OF ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THRU THE NIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOG AND WILL KEEP PATCHY WORDING ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
IN RESPONSE TO A STUBBORN UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER
THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY. A VERY COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP A LOW STRATUS DECK AND
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND EAST PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA WHERE LIVINGSTON AND BAKER ARE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH
AREAS IN BETWEEN ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WELL LATELY
BUT THEY DO SHOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY MID EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP CHANCES GOING FROM HIGHER CHANCES THIS EVENING TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SATURATED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG SO THIS
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY...A LARGE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
ENTIRE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER
COLORADO FRIDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. DYNAMICS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS LOOK TO STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH OF MONTANA FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SHOWER
CHANCE FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ROTATING SOME ENERGY NORTHWEST
INTO WYOMING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING BUT MODELS DO
BRING THE NORTHERN EDGE AS FAR NORTH AS THE MONTANA/WYOMING
BORDER. SO AFTER A BREAK FOR THE MOST PART IN THE PRECIP
FRIDAY...CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-EKALAKA LINE.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE A BIT MILDER WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 50S WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM AS A REX BLOCK
KEEPS MOST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. AN OMEGA BLOCK IS THEN FORECAST
TO DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
THE OMEGA BLOCK TO SHIFT EAST SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STP
&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS THE BEST FORCING LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE RECENT PRECIPITATION PROVIDING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GILSTAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/052 035/054 037/059 037/065 041/071 044/074 046/073
    22/W    23/W    22/W    11/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 028/052 032/054 034/056 032/065 037/073 039/073 041/074
    23/W    33/W    32/W    10/U    10/U    00/U    11/B
HDN 030/054 036/054 035/060 035/066 037/071 040/075 041/073
    22/W    24/W    22/W    11/U    11/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 033/054 038/056 038/062 038/068 041/071 045/074 045/072
    22/W    12/W    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 031/050 035/051 034/059 034/065 039/070 040/073 042/071
    22/W    34/W    21/B    11/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 031/051 035/056 034/060 035/065 038/069 040/070 040/069
    21/E    22/W    11/U    00/U    10/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 029/052 034/051 031/054 032/061 035/067 037/070 038/071
    22/W    37/W    42/W    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282132
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
332 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
IN RESPONSE TO A STUBBORN UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER
THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY. A VERY COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP A LOW STRATUS DECK AND
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND EAST PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA WHERE LIVINGSTON AND BAKER ARE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH
AREAS IN BETWEEN ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WELL LATELY
BUT THEY DO SHOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY MID EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP CHANCES GOING FROM HIGHER CHANCES THIS EVENING TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SATURATED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG SO THIS
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY...A LARGE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
ENTIRE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER
COLORADO FRIDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. DYNAMICS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS LOOK TO STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH OF MONTANA FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SHOWER
CHANCE FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ROTATING SOME ENERGY NORTHWEST
INTO WYOMING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING BUT MODELS DO
BRING THE NORTHERN EDGE AS FAR NORTH AS THE MONTANA/WYOMING
BORDER. SO AFTER A BREAK FOR THE MOST PART IN THE PRECIP
FRIDAY...CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-EKALAKA LINE.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE A BIT MILDER WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 50S WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM AS A REX BLOCK
KEEPS MOST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. AN OMEGA BLOCK IS THEN FORECAST
TO DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
THE OMEGA BLOCK TO SHIFT EAST SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BROUGHT MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. WITH
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/052 035/054 037/059 037/065 041/071 044/074 046/073
    32/W    23/W    22/W    11/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 028/052 032/054 034/056 032/065 037/073 039/073 041/074
    43/W    33/W    32/W    10/U    10/U    00/U    11/B
HDN 031/054 036/054 035/060 035/066 037/071 040/075 041/073
    32/W    24/W    22/W    11/U    11/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 033/054 038/056 038/062 038/068 041/071 045/074 045/072
    22/W    12/W    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 032/050 035/051 034/059 034/065 039/070 040/073 042/071
    22/W    34/W    21/B    11/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 031/051 035/056 034/060 035/065 038/069 040/070 040/069
    11/E    22/W    11/U    00/U    10/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 029/052 034/051 031/054 032/061 035/067 037/070 038/071
    32/W    37/W    42/W    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





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