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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 060253
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
853 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUE TO SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING OVER WESTERN ZONES IN VICINITY OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE
JET...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER CENTRAL AREAS TO ADJUST FOR
THIS. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA LOWERED POPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT DUE TO SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES THAT IS TRAPPED IN THE COLDER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO 2 MILES AT TIMES IN SOME AREAS
DUE TO THE SMOKE. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE EXPECT A SMALL
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT AND LEFT GOING TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IN PLACE. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL SEE MORE
SUN TOMORROW BUT TRAPPED LAYER OF SMOKE WILL STAY WITH US.
CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC AS TIME WITH
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE REGION. IT HAS
BROUGHT SUBSTANTIAL SMOKE INTO THE REGION WHICH IS COMBINING WITH
LIGHT PRECIP TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD
START A DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
MONTANA BUT HEIGHTS ARE SLOW TO REBOUND TONIGHT SO STILL THINK
SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
DESPITE A COOL NIGHT ON TAP...DO NOT EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT
SMOKE WILL KEEP HAZY CONDITIONS AROUND.

MONDAY A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. A BIT BETTER MIXING AND SUNNIER
SKIES WILL BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BUT STILL 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ENOUGH LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT PLAINS LOOK DRY.

TUESDAY A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR OUT OF CANADA. WARMER START AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPERATURES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL SOME RETURN FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN PUSH WILL
GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES AND COULD SEE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS THE WAVE SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
OVERNIGHT. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS ON ALLOWING
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BUT SHEAR FIELDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

OVERVIEW...SOMEWHAT MODEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD EACH DAY...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN A WARMING
TREND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12 UTC MODELS REMAINED IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A BACKING OF THE
FLOW ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE WEST COAST AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT TRANSITION WILL BE A DRIVING FORCE BEHIND
THE WARMING TREND...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE 90 F
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND RESULTANT PATH OF THE PACIFIC-BASED TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 00 UTC RUN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION.
LOW END POPS FOR THE PLAINS STILL SEEM TO BE THE BEST ROUTE FOR
NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THAT SAID...AT SOME STAGE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND I THINK WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW TRACK OVER OUR REGION RAISING THE THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...LINGERING TOWARDS MORNING AROUND SHERIDAN. MVFR TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/076 056/083 058/081 059/089 063/092 063/089 062/090
    31/K    01/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 049/077 049/081 051/080 052/087 055/089 055/085 054/087
    40/K    13/T    22/T    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 055/078 056/086 057/084 058/092 060/095 061/092 060/091
    30/K    01/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 055/076 055/084 058/082 059/091 063/095 065/092 064/089
    30/K    01/B    12/T    11/U    22/T    23/T    22/T
4BQ 056/075 055/082 057/082 059/089 062/094 063/090 062/088
    41/K    02/T    33/T    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 054/071 051/078 055/079 056/086 060/092 061/089 060/084
    30/K    01/B    13/T    11/U    22/T    23/T    22/T
SHR 052/072 051/079 054/078 054/086 056/089 056/086 056/086
    42/W    13/T    22/T    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 060253
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
853 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUE TO SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING OVER WESTERN ZONES IN VICINITY OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE
JET...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER CENTRAL AREAS TO ADJUST FOR
THIS. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA LOWERED POPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT DUE TO SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES THAT IS TRAPPED IN THE COLDER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO 2 MILES AT TIMES IN SOME AREAS
DUE TO THE SMOKE. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE EXPECT A SMALL
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT AND LEFT GOING TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IN PLACE. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL SEE MORE
SUN TOMORROW BUT TRAPPED LAYER OF SMOKE WILL STAY WITH US.
CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC AS TIME WITH
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE REGION. IT HAS
BROUGHT SUBSTANTIAL SMOKE INTO THE REGION WHICH IS COMBINING WITH
LIGHT PRECIP TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD
START A DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
MONTANA BUT HEIGHTS ARE SLOW TO REBOUND TONIGHT SO STILL THINK
SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
DESPITE A COOL NIGHT ON TAP...DO NOT EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT
SMOKE WILL KEEP HAZY CONDITIONS AROUND.

MONDAY A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. A BIT BETTER MIXING AND SUNNIER
SKIES WILL BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BUT STILL 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ENOUGH LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT PLAINS LOOK DRY.

TUESDAY A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR OUT OF CANADA. WARMER START AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPERATURES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL SOME RETURN FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN PUSH WILL
GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES AND COULD SEE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS THE WAVE SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
OVERNIGHT. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS ON ALLOWING
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BUT SHEAR FIELDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

OVERVIEW...SOMEWHAT MODEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD EACH DAY...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN A WARMING
TREND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12 UTC MODELS REMAINED IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A BACKING OF THE
FLOW ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE WEST COAST AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT TRANSITION WILL BE A DRIVING FORCE BEHIND
THE WARMING TREND...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE 90 F
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND RESULTANT PATH OF THE PACIFIC-BASED TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 00 UTC RUN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION.
LOW END POPS FOR THE PLAINS STILL SEEM TO BE THE BEST ROUTE FOR
NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THAT SAID...AT SOME STAGE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND I THINK WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW TRACK OVER OUR REGION RAISING THE THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...LINGERING TOWARDS MORNING AROUND SHERIDAN. MVFR TO
IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/076 056/083 058/081 059/089 063/092 063/089 062/090
    31/K    01/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 049/077 049/081 051/080 052/087 055/089 055/085 054/087
    40/K    13/T    22/T    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 055/078 056/086 057/084 058/092 060/095 061/092 060/091
    30/K    01/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 055/076 055/084 058/082 059/091 063/095 065/092 064/089
    30/K    01/B    12/T    11/U    22/T    23/T    22/T
4BQ 056/075 055/082 057/082 059/089 062/094 063/090 062/088
    41/K    02/T    33/T    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 054/071 051/078 055/079 056/086 060/092 061/089 060/084
    30/K    01/B    13/T    11/U    22/T    23/T    22/T
SHR 052/072 051/079 054/078 054/086 056/089 056/086 056/086
    42/W    13/T    22/T    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 052103
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
303 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC AS TIME WITH
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE REGION. IT HAS
BROUGHT SUBSTANTIAL SMOKE INTO THE REGION WHICH IS COMBINING WITH
LIGHT PRECIP TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD
START A DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
MONTANA BUT HEIGHTS ARE SLOW TO REBOUND TONIGHT SO STILL THINK
SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
DESPITE A COOL NIGHT ON TAP...DO NOT EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT
SMOKE WILL KEEP HAZY CONDITIONS AROUND.

MONDAY A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. A BIT BETTER MIXING AND SUNNIER
SKIES WILL BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BUT STILL 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ENOUGH LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT PLAINS LOOK DRY.

TUESDAY A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR OUT OF CANADA. WARMER START AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPERATURES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL SOME RETURN FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN PUSH WILL
GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES AND COULD SEE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS THE WAVE SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
OVERNIGHT. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS ON ALLOWING
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BUT SHEAR FIELDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

OVERVIEW...SOMEWHAT MODEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD EACH DAY...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN A WARMING
TREND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12 UTC MODELS REMAINED IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A BACKING OF THE
FLOW ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE WEST COAST AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT TRANSITION WILL BE A DRIVING FORCE BEHIND
THE WARMING TREND...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE 90 F
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND RESULTANT PATH OF THE PACIFIC-BASED TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 00 UTC RUN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION.
LOW END POPS FOR THE PLAINS STILL SEEM TO BE THE BEST ROUTE FOR
NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THAT SAID...AT SOME STAGE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND I THINK WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW TRACK OVER OUR REGION RAISING THE THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY AND
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...MIXED WITH AREAS OF VFR
CEILINGS. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL BUT TURN
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
SPEEDS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/076 056/083 058/081 059/089 063/092 063/089 062/090
    31/K    01/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 049/077 049/081 051/080 052/087 055/089 055/085 054/087
    40/K    13/T    22/T    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 055/078 056/086 057/084 058/092 060/095 061/092 060/091
    20/K    01/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 055/076 055/084 058/082 059/091 063/095 065/092 064/089
    30/K    01/B    12/T    11/U    22/T    23/T    22/T
4BQ 056/075 055/082 057/082 059/089 062/094 063/090 062/088
    71/K    02/T    33/T    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 054/071 051/078 055/079 056/086 060/092 061/089 060/084
    30/K    01/B    13/T    11/U    22/T    23/T    22/T
SHR 052/072 051/079 054/078 054/086 056/089 056/086 056/086
    62/W    13/T    22/T    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 052103
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
303 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC AS TIME WITH
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE REGION. IT HAS
BROUGHT SUBSTANTIAL SMOKE INTO THE REGION WHICH IS COMBINING WITH
LIGHT PRECIP TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD
START A DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
MONTANA BUT HEIGHTS ARE SLOW TO REBOUND TONIGHT SO STILL THINK
SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
DESPITE A COOL NIGHT ON TAP...DO NOT EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT
SMOKE WILL KEEP HAZY CONDITIONS AROUND.

MONDAY A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. A BIT BETTER MIXING AND SUNNIER
SKIES WILL BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BUT STILL 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ENOUGH LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT PLAINS LOOK DRY.

TUESDAY A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR OUT OF CANADA. WARMER START AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPERATURES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL SOME RETURN FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CANADIAN PUSH WILL
GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES AND COULD SEE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS THE WAVE SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
OVERNIGHT. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS ON ALLOWING
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BUT SHEAR FIELDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT SO DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

OVERVIEW...SOMEWHAT MODEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD EACH DAY...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN A WARMING
TREND BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12 UTC MODELS REMAINED IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A BACKING OF THE
FLOW ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE WEST COAST AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT TRANSITION WILL BE A DRIVING FORCE BEHIND
THE WARMING TREND...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE 90 F
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND RESULTANT PATH OF THE PACIFIC-BASED TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 00 UTC RUN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION.
LOW END POPS FOR THE PLAINS STILL SEEM TO BE THE BEST ROUTE FOR
NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THAT SAID...AT SOME STAGE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND I THINK WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW TRACK OVER OUR REGION RAISING THE THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY AND
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...MIXED WITH AREAS OF VFR
CEILINGS. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL BUT TURN
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
SPEEDS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/076 056/083 058/081 059/089 063/092 063/089 062/090
    31/K    01/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 049/077 049/081 051/080 052/087 055/089 055/085 054/087
    40/K    13/T    22/T    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 055/078 056/086 057/084 058/092 060/095 061/092 060/091
    20/K    01/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 055/076 055/084 058/082 059/091 063/095 065/092 064/089
    30/K    01/B    12/T    11/U    22/T    23/T    22/T
4BQ 056/075 055/082 057/082 059/089 062/094 063/090 062/088
    71/K    02/T    33/T    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 054/071 051/078 055/079 056/086 060/092 061/089 060/084
    30/K    01/B    13/T    11/U    22/T    23/T    22/T
SHR 052/072 051/079 054/078 054/086 056/089 056/086 056/086
    62/W    13/T    22/T    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 051541
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
941 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
MUCH COOLER AIR HAS POURED INTO THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH SMOKE
AND CLOUDS DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH TODAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND DUE TO A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT LOOKING AT GLASGOW SOUNDING LOOKS
PRETTY CLEAR THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA HAS ENDED. CURRENT DAYTIME FORECAST APPEARS TO
BE TRENDING A BIT DRIER THAN EARLIER THAT AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST A
BIT WETTER..BUT THATS ONLY BASED ON NAM12 SO WILL WAIT FOR GFS TO
MAKE CHANGES ABOUT TONIGHT FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MT WHERE STRONG WAVE ROTATING AROUND
CANADIAN UPPER LOW HAS TRIGGERED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS AND WAS THROUGH JUDITH GAP PER STRONG PRESSURE RISES
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 08Z. MESOSCALE MODELS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION AND BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS INTO FALLON
COUNTY BY 15Z. KBHK SOUNDING FROM THE WRF HAD ABUNDANT ELEVATED
CAPE AND DECENT SHEAR THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE WATCHING FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THERE EARLY.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAD THE COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM KBIL
W BEFORE 12Z. SE MT WAS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 15Z. WRF
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT SE MT WILL HAVE AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY AIDED BY THE MORNING PREFRONTAL
CONDITIONS. SREF ALSO HAD DECENT CAPES OVER SE MT...AREAS S OF
KBIL AND THE SW MOUNTAINS. SE MT WILL ALSO BE UNDER FAVORABLE
SHEAR TODAY BASED ON THE SREF. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ROUNDING THE CANADIAN LOW BRINGS UPPER
DIVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND SHORTWAVES PRODUCE Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO 1-1.5
INCHES BEHIND THE FRONT...AIDED BY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE S.
ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE
MODELS...THEN INCREASED AFTERNOON POPS DUE TO GOOD SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING OVER SE
MT...AREAS S OF KBIL AND THE SW MOUNTAINS. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WILL FORECAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE SE...BUT DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING IN THE E...WILL
LEAVE SEVERE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL PUT OUT AN HWO
AND WEATHER STORY ADVERTISING THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S W AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S E. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED A BREEZY DAY
WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS SO INCREASED WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

LIFT DECREASES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND AIRMASS WILL BE
STABLE...SO HAD DECREASING POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF
THIS WEEK...AND WE ARE STILL ADVERTISING A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS ON
MANY DAYS. THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE REMAINED IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A
BACKING OF THE FLOW ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES
INTO THE WEST COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT TRANSITION WILL BE
A DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WARMING TREND...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS
BACK ABOVE 90 F BEGINNING THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND RESULTANT PATH OF THE PACIFIC-BASED TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND IS
UNCERTAIN. THE 00 UTC ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED...BUT ALSO
STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE 00 UTC GFS OWING TO STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...AT THIS JUNCTURE BOTH OF
THOSE IDEAS ARE COVERED BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A
COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND AN OVERNIGHT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TOO.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 054/076 054/083 059/083 060/092 064/092 063/090
    5/W 31/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 064 048/077 047/081 051/082 052/090 056/089 056/087
    6/W 32/W    13/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 068 054/078 053/086 058/086 058/095 061/095 061/092
    5/W 21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 070 054/075 052/084 058/084 060/093 064/095 065/092
    5/W 21/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
4BQ 070 055/075 052/083 058/082 058/090 062/094 064/090
    6/T 71/B    11/B    22/T    11/U    22/T    22/T
BHK 069 053/071 048/079 055/079 055/087 060/091 062/087
    7/T 31/B    01/B    22/T    11/U    12/T    23/T
SHR 070 052/072 049/079 054/078 054/088 057/089 057/087
    5/W 52/W    13/T    32/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 051541
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
941 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
MUCH COOLER AIR HAS POURED INTO THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH SMOKE
AND CLOUDS DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH TODAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND DUE TO A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT LOOKING AT GLASGOW SOUNDING LOOKS
PRETTY CLEAR THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA HAS ENDED. CURRENT DAYTIME FORECAST APPEARS TO
BE TRENDING A BIT DRIER THAN EARLIER THAT AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST A
BIT WETTER..BUT THATS ONLY BASED ON NAM12 SO WILL WAIT FOR GFS TO
MAKE CHANGES ABOUT TONIGHT FORECAST. UPDATES SENT. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MT WHERE STRONG WAVE ROTATING AROUND
CANADIAN UPPER LOW HAS TRIGGERED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS AND WAS THROUGH JUDITH GAP PER STRONG PRESSURE RISES
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 08Z. MESOSCALE MODELS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION AND BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS INTO FALLON
COUNTY BY 15Z. KBHK SOUNDING FROM THE WRF HAD ABUNDANT ELEVATED
CAPE AND DECENT SHEAR THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE WATCHING FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THERE EARLY.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAD THE COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM KBIL
W BEFORE 12Z. SE MT WAS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 15Z. WRF
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT SE MT WILL HAVE AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY AIDED BY THE MORNING PREFRONTAL
CONDITIONS. SREF ALSO HAD DECENT CAPES OVER SE MT...AREAS S OF
KBIL AND THE SW MOUNTAINS. SE MT WILL ALSO BE UNDER FAVORABLE
SHEAR TODAY BASED ON THE SREF. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ROUNDING THE CANADIAN LOW BRINGS UPPER
DIVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND SHORTWAVES PRODUCE Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO 1-1.5
INCHES BEHIND THE FRONT...AIDED BY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE S.
ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE
MODELS...THEN INCREASED AFTERNOON POPS DUE TO GOOD SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING OVER SE
MT...AREAS S OF KBIL AND THE SW MOUNTAINS. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WILL FORECAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE SE...BUT DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING IN THE E...WILL
LEAVE SEVERE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL PUT OUT AN HWO
AND WEATHER STORY ADVERTISING THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S W AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S E. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED A BREEZY DAY
WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS SO INCREASED WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

LIFT DECREASES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND AIRMASS WILL BE
STABLE...SO HAD DECREASING POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF
THIS WEEK...AND WE ARE STILL ADVERTISING A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS ON
MANY DAYS. THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE REMAINED IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A
BACKING OF THE FLOW ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES
INTO THE WEST COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT TRANSITION WILL BE
A DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WARMING TREND...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS
BACK ABOVE 90 F BEGINNING THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND RESULTANT PATH OF THE PACIFIC-BASED TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND IS
UNCERTAIN. THE 00 UTC ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED...BUT ALSO
STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE 00 UTC GFS OWING TO STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...AT THIS JUNCTURE BOTH OF
THOSE IDEAS ARE COVERED BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A
COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND AN OVERNIGHT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TOO.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 054/076 054/083 059/083 060/092 064/092 063/090
    5/W 31/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 064 048/077 047/081 051/082 052/090 056/089 056/087
    6/W 32/W    13/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 068 054/078 053/086 058/086 058/095 061/095 061/092
    5/W 21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 070 054/075 052/084 058/084 060/093 064/095 065/092
    5/W 21/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
4BQ 070 055/075 052/083 058/082 058/090 062/094 064/090
    6/T 71/B    11/B    22/T    11/U    22/T    22/T
BHK 069 053/071 048/079 055/079 055/087 060/091 062/087
    7/T 31/B    01/B    22/T    11/U    12/T    23/T
SHR 070 052/072 049/079 054/078 054/088 057/089 057/087
    5/W 52/W    13/T    32/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 050904
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MT WHERE STRONG WAVE ROTATING AROUND
CANADIAN UPPER LOW HAS TRIGGERED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS AND WAS THROUGH JUDITH GAP PER STRONG PRESSURE RISES
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 08Z. MESOSCALE MODELS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION AND BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS INTO FALLON
COUNTY BY 15Z. KBHK SOUNDING FROM THE WRF HAD ABUNDANT ELEVATED
CAPE AND DECENT SHEAR THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE WATCHING FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THERE EARLY.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAD THE COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM KBIL
W BEFORE 12Z. SE MT WAS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 15Z. WRF
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT SE MT WILL HAVE AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY AIDED BY THE MORNING PREFRONTAL
CONDITIONS. SREF ALSO HAD DECENT CAPES OVER SE MT...AREAS S OF
KBIL AND THE SW MOUNTAINS. SE MT WILL ALSO BE UNDER FAVORABLE
SHEAR TODAY BASED ON THE SREF. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ROUNDING THE CANADIAN LOW BRINGS UPPER
DIVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND SHORTWAVES PRODUCE Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO 1-1.5
INCHES BEHIND THE FRONT...AIDED BY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE S.
ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE
MODELS...THEN INCREASED AFTERNOON POPS DUE TO GOOD SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING OVER SE
MT...AREAS S OF KBIL AND THE SW MOUNTAINS. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WILL FORECAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE SE...BUT DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING IN THE E...WILL
LEAVE SEVERE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL PUT OUT AN HWO
AND WEATHER STORY ADVERTISING THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S W AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S E. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED A BREEZY DAY
WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS SO INCREASED WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

LIFT DECREASES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND AIRMASS WILL BE
STABLE...SO HAD DECREASING POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF
THIS WEEK...AND WE ARE STILL ADVERTISING A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS ON
MANY DAYS. THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE REMAINED IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A
BACKING OF THE FLOW ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES
INTO THE WEST COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT TRANSITION WILL BE
A DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WARMING TREND...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS
BACK ABOVE 90 F BEGINNING THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND RESULTANT PATH OF THE PACIFIC-BASED TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND IS
UNCERTAIN. THE 00 UTC ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED...BUT ALSO
STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE 00 UTC GFS OWING TO STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...AT THIS JUNCTURE BOTH OF
THOSE IDEAS ARE COVERED BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A
COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND AN OVERNIGHT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TOO.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 054/076 054/083 059/083 060/092 064/092 063/090
    6/W 31/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 070 048/077 047/081 051/082 052/090 056/089 056/087
    6/W 32/W    13/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 073 054/078 053/086 058/086 058/095 061/095 061/092
    7/T 31/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 075 054/075 052/084 058/084 060/093 064/095 065/092
    6/W 21/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
4BQ 078 055/075 052/083 058/082 058/090 062/094 064/090
    7/T 41/B    11/B    22/T    11/U    22/T    22/T
BHK 073 053/071 048/079 055/079 055/087 060/091 062/087
    7/T 31/B    01/B    22/T    11/U    12/T    23/T
SHR 074 052/072 049/079 054/078 054/088 057/089 057/087
    8/T 62/W    13/T    32/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 050904
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MT WHERE STRONG WAVE ROTATING AROUND
CANADIAN UPPER LOW HAS TRIGGERED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS AND WAS THROUGH JUDITH GAP PER STRONG PRESSURE RISES
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 08Z. MESOSCALE MODELS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION AND BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS INTO FALLON
COUNTY BY 15Z. KBHK SOUNDING FROM THE WRF HAD ABUNDANT ELEVATED
CAPE AND DECENT SHEAR THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE WATCHING FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THERE EARLY.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAD THE COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM KBIL
W BEFORE 12Z. SE MT WAS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 15Z. WRF
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT SE MT WILL HAVE AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY AIDED BY THE MORNING PREFRONTAL
CONDITIONS. SREF ALSO HAD DECENT CAPES OVER SE MT...AREAS S OF
KBIL AND THE SW MOUNTAINS. SE MT WILL ALSO BE UNDER FAVORABLE
SHEAR TODAY BASED ON THE SREF. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ROUNDING THE CANADIAN LOW BRINGS UPPER
DIVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND SHORTWAVES PRODUCE Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO 1-1.5
INCHES BEHIND THE FRONT...AIDED BY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE S.
ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE
MODELS...THEN INCREASED AFTERNOON POPS DUE TO GOOD SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING OVER SE
MT...AREAS S OF KBIL AND THE SW MOUNTAINS. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WILL FORECAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE SE...BUT DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING IN THE E...WILL
LEAVE SEVERE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL PUT OUT AN HWO
AND WEATHER STORY ADVERTISING THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S W AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S E. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED A BREEZY DAY
WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS SO INCREASED WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

LIFT DECREASES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND AIRMASS WILL BE
STABLE...SO HAD DECREASING POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF
THIS WEEK...AND WE ARE STILL ADVERTISING A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS ON
MANY DAYS. THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE REMAINED IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A
BACKING OF THE FLOW ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES
INTO THE WEST COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT TRANSITION WILL BE
A DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WARMING TREND...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS
BACK ABOVE 90 F BEGINNING THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND RESULTANT PATH OF THE PACIFIC-BASED TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND IS
UNCERTAIN. THE 00 UTC ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED...BUT ALSO
STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE 00 UTC GFS OWING TO STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...AT THIS JUNCTURE BOTH OF
THOSE IDEAS ARE COVERED BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A
COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND AN OVERNIGHT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TOO.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 054/076 054/083 059/083 060/092 064/092 063/090
    6/W 31/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 070 048/077 047/081 051/082 052/090 056/089 056/087
    6/W 32/W    13/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 073 054/078 053/086 058/086 058/095 061/095 061/092
    7/T 31/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 075 054/075 052/084 058/084 060/093 064/095 065/092
    6/W 21/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
4BQ 078 055/075 052/083 058/082 058/090 062/094 064/090
    7/T 41/B    11/B    22/T    11/U    22/T    22/T
BHK 073 053/071 048/079 055/079 055/087 060/091 062/087
    7/T 31/B    01/B    22/T    11/U    12/T    23/T
SHR 074 052/072 049/079 054/078 054/088 057/089 057/087
    8/T 62/W    13/T    32/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 050904
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MT WHERE STRONG WAVE ROTATING AROUND
CANADIAN UPPER LOW HAS TRIGGERED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS AND WAS THROUGH JUDITH GAP PER STRONG PRESSURE RISES
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 08Z. MESOSCALE MODELS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION AND BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS INTO FALLON
COUNTY BY 15Z. KBHK SOUNDING FROM THE WRF HAD ABUNDANT ELEVATED
CAPE AND DECENT SHEAR THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE WATCHING FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THERE EARLY.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAD THE COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM KBIL
W BEFORE 12Z. SE MT WAS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 15Z. WRF
SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT SE MT WILL HAVE AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
CAPE THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY AIDED BY THE MORNING PREFRONTAL
CONDITIONS. SREF ALSO HAD DECENT CAPES OVER SE MT...AREAS S OF
KBIL AND THE SW MOUNTAINS. SE MT WILL ALSO BE UNDER FAVORABLE
SHEAR TODAY BASED ON THE SREF. WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ROUNDING THE CANADIAN LOW BRINGS UPPER
DIVERGENCE TO THE AREA AND SHORTWAVES PRODUCE Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO 1-1.5
INCHES BEHIND THE FRONT...AIDED BY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE S.
ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE
MODELS...THEN INCREASED AFTERNOON POPS DUE TO GOOD SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING OVER SE
MT...AREAS S OF KBIL AND THE SW MOUNTAINS. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WILL FORECAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE SE...BUT DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING IN THE E...WILL
LEAVE SEVERE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL PUT OUT AN HWO
AND WEATHER STORY ADVERTISING THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S W AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING
TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S E. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED A BREEZY DAY
WITH 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS SO INCREASED WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

LIFT DECREASES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND AIRMASS WILL BE
STABLE...SO HAD DECREASING POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION MON AND MON NIGHT
BRINGING CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

WE REMAIN CONFIDENT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF
THIS WEEK...AND WE ARE STILL ADVERTISING A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS ON
MANY DAYS. THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE REMAINED IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A
BACKING OF THE FLOW ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES
INTO THE WEST COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT TRANSITION WILL BE
A DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WARMING TREND...WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS
BACK ABOVE 90 F BEGINNING THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND RESULTANT PATH OF THE PACIFIC-BASED TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND IS
UNCERTAIN. THE 00 UTC ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED...BUT ALSO
STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE 00 UTC GFS OWING TO STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...AT THIS JUNCTURE BOTH OF
THOSE IDEAS ARE COVERED BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A
COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND AN OVERNIGHT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TOO.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 054/076 054/083 059/083 060/092 064/092 063/090
    6/W 31/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 070 048/077 047/081 051/082 052/090 056/089 056/087
    6/W 32/W    13/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 073 054/078 053/086 058/086 058/095 061/095 061/092
    7/T 31/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 075 054/075 052/084 058/084 060/093 064/095 065/092
    6/W 21/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
4BQ 078 055/075 052/083 058/082 058/090 062/094 064/090
    7/T 41/B    11/B    22/T    11/U    22/T    22/T
BHK 073 053/071 048/079 055/079 055/087 060/091 062/087
    7/T 31/B    01/B    22/T    11/U    12/T    23/T
SHR 074 052/072 049/079 054/078 054/088 057/089 057/087
    8/T 62/W    13/T    32/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 050235
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
835 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES PUSHED INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MILES CITY MADE IT TO 102 JUST
BEFORE A THUNDERSTORM MOVED THROUGH COOLING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
90S. THAT FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR BIG TIMBER TO
SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO NEAR BAKER. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
TURNED NORTHERLY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY TRENDED SLIGHTLY
COOLER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS JUST MOVING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AT THIS TIME AND WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA ARE IN THE 50S AT THIS HOUR. AS THIS COLDER CANADIAN AIR
MOVES IN WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE. LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW STORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT
30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS EVENING BUT QUITE DRY INITIALLY SO
BEST CHANCE FOR A EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED AND HAVE A
THREAT TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHEAST. TIMING OF THIS
FRONT IS AROUND 10 PM FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...11
PM FOR A HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE AND THEN MIDNIGHT
FOR LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 30 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST ALBERTA
DRIVING THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IS GOING TO MOVE DUE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THIS
DEPARTING LOW WILL PHASE WITH A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH WILL HELP DEEPEN
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WAVE
BEGINS TO DEPART THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS ALLOWS DRYING
TO BEGIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MAX OUT
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE MULTIPLE HOURS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MOSTLY
LIGHT.

MONDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED COOL WEATHER BUT THE AIRMASS WILL DRY
OUT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND LIMIT
MIXING HELPING SLOW DOWN ANY WARMUP. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION. AS A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY ON TO THE WEST COAST IT WILL PHASE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER STREAM
WILL SHIFT OFF THROUGH CANADA AND THAT UPPER LOW ON THE WEST COAST
WILL SINK SOUTH DOWN THE COAST RESULTING IN SOME RIDGING ACROSS
OUR REGION AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WILL MEAN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT BUT LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
MAY FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING
DETAILS AS NECESSARY. BT/REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/068 054/076 055/084 059/084 061/092 065/092 063/090
    25/W    21/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 057/068 048/078 049/084 051/083 053/090 056/089 055/087
    25/W    32/T    22/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 062/071 054/078 055/086 058/086 059/095 062/094 061/092
    25/W    21/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 064/072 054/076 054/084 058/085 060/093 064/094 065/090
    36/W    21/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T
4BQ 064/076 055/075 053/083 058/083 059/090 062/093 063/090
    27/T    31/B    11/B    22/T    11/U    22/T    23/T
BHK 062/071 053/072 050/079 055/080 056/087 060/090 061/085
    26/T    31/B    01/B    22/T    11/U    12/T    23/T
SHR 060/070 051/073 051/080 054/080 054/088 057/088 057/087
    17/T    41/B    22/T    32/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 050235
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
835 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES PUSHED INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MILES CITY MADE IT TO 102 JUST
BEFORE A THUNDERSTORM MOVED THROUGH COOLING TEMPS BACK INTO THE
90S. THAT FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR BIG TIMBER TO
SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO NEAR BAKER. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
TURNED NORTHERLY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY TRENDED SLIGHTLY
COOLER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS JUST MOVING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AT THIS TIME AND WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA ARE IN THE 50S AT THIS HOUR. AS THIS COLDER CANADIAN AIR
MOVES IN WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE. LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW STORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT
30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS EVENING BUT QUITE DRY INITIALLY SO
BEST CHANCE FOR A EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED AND HAVE A
THREAT TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHEAST. TIMING OF THIS
FRONT IS AROUND 10 PM FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...11
PM FOR A HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE AND THEN MIDNIGHT
FOR LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 30 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST ALBERTA
DRIVING THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IS GOING TO MOVE DUE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THIS
DEPARTING LOW WILL PHASE WITH A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH WILL HELP DEEPEN
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WAVE
BEGINS TO DEPART THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS ALLOWS DRYING
TO BEGIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MAX OUT
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE MULTIPLE HOURS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MOSTLY
LIGHT.

MONDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED COOL WEATHER BUT THE AIRMASS WILL DRY
OUT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND LIMIT
MIXING HELPING SLOW DOWN ANY WARMUP. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION. AS A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY ON TO THE WEST COAST IT WILL PHASE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER STREAM
WILL SHIFT OFF THROUGH CANADA AND THAT UPPER LOW ON THE WEST COAST
WILL SINK SOUTH DOWN THE COAST RESULTING IN SOME RIDGING ACROSS
OUR REGION AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WILL MEAN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT BUT LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
MAY FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING
DETAILS AS NECESSARY. BT/REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/068 054/076 055/084 059/084 061/092 065/092 063/090
    25/W    21/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 057/068 048/078 049/084 051/083 053/090 056/089 055/087
    25/W    32/T    22/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 062/071 054/078 055/086 058/086 059/095 062/094 061/092
    25/W    21/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 064/072 054/076 054/084 058/085 060/093 064/094 065/090
    36/W    21/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T
4BQ 064/076 055/075 053/083 058/083 059/090 062/093 063/090
    27/T    31/B    11/B    22/T    11/U    22/T    23/T
BHK 062/071 053/072 050/079 055/080 056/087 060/090 061/085
    26/T    31/B    01/B    22/T    11/U    12/T    23/T
SHR 060/070 051/073 051/080 054/080 054/088 057/088 057/087
    17/T    41/B    22/T    32/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 042130
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
330 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS EVENING BUT QUITE DRY INITIALLY SO
BEST CHANCE FOR A EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED AND HAVE A
THREAT TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHEAST. TIMING OF THIS
FRONT IS AROUND 10 PM FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...11
PM FOR A HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE AND THEN MIDNIGHT
FOR LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 30 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST ALBERTA
DRIVING THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IS GOING TO MOVE DUE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THIS
DEPARTING LOW WILL PHASE WITH A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH WILL HELP DEEPEN
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WAVE
BEGINS TO DEPART THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS ALLOWS DRYING
TO BEGIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MAX OUT
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE MULTIPLE HOURS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MOSTLY
LIGHT.

MONDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED COOL WEATHER BUT THE AIRMASS WILL DRY
OUT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND LIMIT
MIXING HELPING SLOW DOWN ANY WARMUP. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION. AS A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY ON TO THE WEST COAST IT WILL PHASE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER STREAM
WILL SHIFT OFF THROUGH CANADA AND THAT UPPER LOW ON THE WEST COAST
WILL SINK SOUTH DOWN THE COAST RESULTING IN SOME RIDGING ACROSS
OUR REGION AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WILL MEAN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT BUT LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY FOLLOW
THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS
NECESSARY. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/068 054/076 055/084 059/084 061/092 065/092 063/090
    25/W    21/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 057/068 048/078 049/084 051/083 053/090 056/089 055/087
    25/W    32/T    22/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 062/071 054/078 055/086 058/086 059/095 062/094 061/092
    25/W    21/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 064/072 054/076 054/084 058/085 060/093 064/094 065/090
    36/W    21/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T
4BQ 064/076 055/075 053/083 058/083 059/090 062/093 063/090
    27/T    31/B    11/B    22/T    11/U    22/T    23/T
BHK 062/071 053/072 050/079 055/080 056/087 060/090 061/085
    26/T    31/B    01/B    22/T    11/U    12/T    23/T
SHR 060/070 051/073 051/080 054/080 054/088 057/088 057/087
    27/T    41/B    22/T    32/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 042130
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
330 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS EVENING BUT QUITE DRY INITIALLY SO
BEST CHANCE FOR A EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED AND HAVE A
THREAT TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AND BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHEAST. TIMING OF THIS
FRONT IS AROUND 10 PM FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT...11
PM FOR A HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE AND THEN MIDNIGHT
FOR LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 30 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST ALBERTA
DRIVING THIS DRAMATIC CHANGE IS GOING TO MOVE DUE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THIS
DEPARTING LOW WILL PHASE WITH A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH WILL HELP DEEPEN
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WAVE
BEGINS TO DEPART THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS ALLOWS DRYING
TO BEGIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MAX OUT
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE MULTIPLE HOURS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MOSTLY
LIGHT.

MONDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED COOL WEATHER BUT THE AIRMASS WILL DRY
OUT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND LIMIT
MIXING HELPING SLOW DOWN ANY WARMUP. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION. AS A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY ON TO THE WEST COAST IT WILL PHASE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER STREAM
WILL SHIFT OFF THROUGH CANADA AND THAT UPPER LOW ON THE WEST COAST
WILL SINK SOUTH DOWN THE COAST RESULTING IN SOME RIDGING ACROSS
OUR REGION AFTER MIDWEEK. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WILL MEAN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT BUT LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY FOLLOW
THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS
NECESSARY. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/068 054/076 055/084 059/084 061/092 065/092 063/090
    25/W    21/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 057/068 048/078 049/084 051/083 053/090 056/089 055/087
    25/W    32/T    22/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 062/071 054/078 055/086 058/086 059/095 062/094 061/092
    25/W    21/B    11/B    21/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 064/072 054/076 054/084 058/085 060/093 064/094 065/090
    36/W    21/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T
4BQ 064/076 055/075 053/083 058/083 059/090 062/093 063/090
    27/T    31/B    11/B    22/T    11/U    22/T    23/T
BHK 062/071 053/072 050/079 055/080 056/087 060/090 061/085
    26/T    31/B    01/B    22/T    11/U    12/T    23/T
SHR 060/070 051/073 051/080 054/080 054/088 057/088 057/087
    27/T    41/B    22/T    32/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041534
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HOT DAY ON TRACK. WATCHING WIND SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
MONITORING AIRMASS BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS FIRST PUSH WILL STALL
BEFORE IT GETS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. NO UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THIS PACKAGE...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK
ZONAL FLOW TODAY...IN BETWEEN CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A MONSOONAL RIDGE TO THE S. ONLY WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. WRF SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN INVERTED-V PROFILE
OVER THE AREA...SIGNALING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DID
AGREE ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS SO WILL HAVE A
POP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S GIVEN MIXING ABOVE 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE +12 TO +16 DEGREES C. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK JET DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT S INTO THE AREA BY 06Z. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY BASED ON DRY SOUNDINGS AND A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CIN OVER THE AREA...SO HAVE LOWERED EVENING POPS. KBHK
SOUNDING DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH CIN AS OTHER AREAS AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH MAY HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SO WILL KEEP
A LOW POP THERE. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY 12Z SUN. ECMWF WAS HOLDING UP THE FRONT AND WAS THE
OUTLIER SO WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF DISTRIBUTION...SO USED A COMPROMISE AND
KEPT POPS LOW. WOULD NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPES WILL BE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. REGARDING WINDS...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 MB/3HR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN MOST FIREWORK
CELEBRATIONS WILL BE OVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE JET DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN
EVENING...AND SHORTWAVES WITH INCREASED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS STILL HAD QPF DISCREPANCIES ON
SUN...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE OVER AN INCH AND THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS
WERE NOT UNSTABLE...SO WILL GO WITH SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER.
MIXING WILL BARELY GET TO 700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE
FACTORS TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. THE GFS AND WRF PUSH PRECIPITATION S OF THE AREA DURING SUN
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP QPF OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/WRF
SOLUTIONS AND DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL...MAINLY
LOW-END OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE LARGE
SCALE...A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BREAK DOWN BY LATE
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES INLAND. THE NET RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO BE BUILDING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A TRANSITION BACK TO A WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE
90 F BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER EARLY-WEEK HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE IDEA
OF A STRONGER NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEY OFFERED UP SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO
LATE-WEEK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...WE HELD FORECAST POPS
MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...AND BASED OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON A 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY FOLLOW
THE FRONT AS WELL...MAINLY AFTER 06 UTC. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 060/070 052/077 056/084 058/083 060/090 063/091
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 095 054/071 046/078 050/084 051/082 053/088 056/088
    1/U 23/W    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
HDN 099 059/073 052/079 055/087 057/085 059/092 062/094
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 098 060/073 051/076 054/085 058/084 060/091 064/092
    0/U 23/W    11/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 095 060/077 053/076 054/084 058/083 060/089 063/092
    1/U 24/W    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 092 058/073 050/072 050/078 054/079 056/086 060/087
    0/U 24/W    21/B    02/T    32/T    21/B    22/T
SHR 092 056/071 049/073 052/081 054/079 054/086 057/087
    0/U 24/W    31/B    22/T    33/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041534
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HOT DAY ON TRACK. WATCHING WIND SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
MONITORING AIRMASS BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS FIRST PUSH WILL STALL
BEFORE IT GETS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. NO UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THIS PACKAGE...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK
ZONAL FLOW TODAY...IN BETWEEN CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A MONSOONAL RIDGE TO THE S. ONLY WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. WRF SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN INVERTED-V PROFILE
OVER THE AREA...SIGNALING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DID
AGREE ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS SO WILL HAVE A
POP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S GIVEN MIXING ABOVE 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE +12 TO +16 DEGREES C. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK JET DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT S INTO THE AREA BY 06Z. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY BASED ON DRY SOUNDINGS AND A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CIN OVER THE AREA...SO HAVE LOWERED EVENING POPS. KBHK
SOUNDING DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH CIN AS OTHER AREAS AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH MAY HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SO WILL KEEP
A LOW POP THERE. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY 12Z SUN. ECMWF WAS HOLDING UP THE FRONT AND WAS THE
OUTLIER SO WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF DISTRIBUTION...SO USED A COMPROMISE AND
KEPT POPS LOW. WOULD NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPES WILL BE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. REGARDING WINDS...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 MB/3HR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN MOST FIREWORK
CELEBRATIONS WILL BE OVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE JET DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN
EVENING...AND SHORTWAVES WITH INCREASED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS STILL HAD QPF DISCREPANCIES ON
SUN...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE OVER AN INCH AND THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS
WERE NOT UNSTABLE...SO WILL GO WITH SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER.
MIXING WILL BARELY GET TO 700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE
FACTORS TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. THE GFS AND WRF PUSH PRECIPITATION S OF THE AREA DURING SUN
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP QPF OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/WRF
SOLUTIONS AND DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL...MAINLY
LOW-END OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE LARGE
SCALE...A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BREAK DOWN BY LATE
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES INLAND. THE NET RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO BE BUILDING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A TRANSITION BACK TO A WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE
90 F BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER EARLY-WEEK HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE IDEA
OF A STRONGER NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEY OFFERED UP SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO
LATE-WEEK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...WE HELD FORECAST POPS
MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...AND BASED OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON A 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY FOLLOW
THE FRONT AS WELL...MAINLY AFTER 06 UTC. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 060/070 052/077 056/084 058/083 060/090 063/091
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 095 054/071 046/078 050/084 051/082 053/088 056/088
    1/U 23/W    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
HDN 099 059/073 052/079 055/087 057/085 059/092 062/094
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 098 060/073 051/076 054/085 058/084 060/091 064/092
    0/U 23/W    11/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 095 060/077 053/076 054/084 058/083 060/089 063/092
    1/U 24/W    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 092 058/073 050/072 050/078 054/079 056/086 060/087
    0/U 24/W    21/B    02/T    32/T    21/B    22/T
SHR 092 056/071 049/073 052/081 054/079 054/086 057/087
    0/U 24/W    31/B    22/T    33/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041534
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HOT DAY ON TRACK. WATCHING WIND SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
MONITORING AIRMASS BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS FIRST PUSH WILL STALL
BEFORE IT GETS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. NO UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THIS PACKAGE...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK
ZONAL FLOW TODAY...IN BETWEEN CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A MONSOONAL RIDGE TO THE S. ONLY WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. WRF SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN INVERTED-V PROFILE
OVER THE AREA...SIGNALING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DID
AGREE ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS SO WILL HAVE A
POP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S GIVEN MIXING ABOVE 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE +12 TO +16 DEGREES C. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK JET DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT S INTO THE AREA BY 06Z. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY BASED ON DRY SOUNDINGS AND A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CIN OVER THE AREA...SO HAVE LOWERED EVENING POPS. KBHK
SOUNDING DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH CIN AS OTHER AREAS AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH MAY HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SO WILL KEEP
A LOW POP THERE. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY 12Z SUN. ECMWF WAS HOLDING UP THE FRONT AND WAS THE
OUTLIER SO WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF DISTRIBUTION...SO USED A COMPROMISE AND
KEPT POPS LOW. WOULD NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPES WILL BE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. REGARDING WINDS...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 MB/3HR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN MOST FIREWORK
CELEBRATIONS WILL BE OVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE JET DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN
EVENING...AND SHORTWAVES WITH INCREASED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS STILL HAD QPF DISCREPANCIES ON
SUN...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE OVER AN INCH AND THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS
WERE NOT UNSTABLE...SO WILL GO WITH SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER.
MIXING WILL BARELY GET TO 700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE
FACTORS TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. THE GFS AND WRF PUSH PRECIPITATION S OF THE AREA DURING SUN
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP QPF OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/WRF
SOLUTIONS AND DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL...MAINLY
LOW-END OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE LARGE
SCALE...A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BREAK DOWN BY LATE
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES INLAND. THE NET RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO BE BUILDING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A TRANSITION BACK TO A WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE
90 F BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER EARLY-WEEK HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE IDEA
OF A STRONGER NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEY OFFERED UP SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO
LATE-WEEK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...WE HELD FORECAST POPS
MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...AND BASED OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON A 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY FOLLOW
THE FRONT AS WELL...MAINLY AFTER 06 UTC. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 060/070 052/077 056/084 058/083 060/090 063/091
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 095 054/071 046/078 050/084 051/082 053/088 056/088
    1/U 23/W    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
HDN 099 059/073 052/079 055/087 057/085 059/092 062/094
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 098 060/073 051/076 054/085 058/084 060/091 064/092
    0/U 23/W    11/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 095 060/077 053/076 054/084 058/083 060/089 063/092
    1/U 24/W    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 092 058/073 050/072 050/078 054/079 056/086 060/087
    0/U 24/W    21/B    02/T    32/T    21/B    22/T
SHR 092 056/071 049/073 052/081 054/079 054/086 057/087
    0/U 24/W    31/B    22/T    33/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041534
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HOT DAY ON TRACK. WATCHING WIND SHIFTS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
MONITORING AIRMASS BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS FIRST PUSH WILL STALL
BEFORE IT GETS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. NO UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THIS PACKAGE...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK
ZONAL FLOW TODAY...IN BETWEEN CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A MONSOONAL RIDGE TO THE S. ONLY WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. WRF SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN INVERTED-V PROFILE
OVER THE AREA...SIGNALING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DID
AGREE ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS SO WILL HAVE A
POP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S GIVEN MIXING ABOVE 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE +12 TO +16 DEGREES C. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK JET DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT S INTO THE AREA BY 06Z. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY BASED ON DRY SOUNDINGS AND A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CIN OVER THE AREA...SO HAVE LOWERED EVENING POPS. KBHK
SOUNDING DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH CIN AS OTHER AREAS AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH MAY HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SO WILL KEEP
A LOW POP THERE. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY 12Z SUN. ECMWF WAS HOLDING UP THE FRONT AND WAS THE
OUTLIER SO WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF DISTRIBUTION...SO USED A COMPROMISE AND
KEPT POPS LOW. WOULD NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPES WILL BE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. REGARDING WINDS...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 MB/3HR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN MOST FIREWORK
CELEBRATIONS WILL BE OVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE JET DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN
EVENING...AND SHORTWAVES WITH INCREASED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS STILL HAD QPF DISCREPANCIES ON
SUN...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE OVER AN INCH AND THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS
WERE NOT UNSTABLE...SO WILL GO WITH SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER.
MIXING WILL BARELY GET TO 700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE
FACTORS TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. THE GFS AND WRF PUSH PRECIPITATION S OF THE AREA DURING SUN
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP QPF OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/WRF
SOLUTIONS AND DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL...MAINLY
LOW-END OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE LARGE
SCALE...A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BREAK DOWN BY LATE
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES INLAND. THE NET RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO BE BUILDING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A TRANSITION BACK TO A WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE
90 F BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER EARLY-WEEK HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE IDEA
OF A STRONGER NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEY OFFERED UP SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO
LATE-WEEK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...WE HELD FORECAST POPS
MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...AND BASED OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON A 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY FOLLOW
THE FRONT AS WELL...MAINLY AFTER 06 UTC. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 060/070 052/077 056/084 058/083 060/090 063/091
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 095 054/071 046/078 050/084 051/082 053/088 056/088
    1/U 23/W    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
HDN 099 059/073 052/079 055/087 057/085 059/092 062/094
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 098 060/073 051/076 054/085 058/084 060/091 064/092
    0/U 23/W    11/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 095 060/077 053/076 054/084 058/083 060/089 063/092
    1/U 24/W    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 092 058/073 050/072 050/078 054/079 056/086 060/087
    0/U 24/W    21/B    02/T    32/T    21/B    22/T
SHR 092 056/071 049/073 052/081 054/079 054/086 057/087
    0/U 24/W    31/B    22/T    33/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040853
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THIS PACKAGE...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK
ZONAL FLOW TODAY...IN BETWEEN CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A MONSOONAL RIDGE TO THE S. ONLY WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. WRF SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN INVERTED-V PROFILE
OVER THE AREA...SIGNALING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DID
AGREE ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS SO WILL HAVE A
POP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S GIVEN MIXING ABOVE 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE +12 TO +16 DEGREES C. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK JET DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT S INTO THE AREA BY 06Z. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY BASED ON DRY SOUNDINGS AND A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CIN OVER THE AREA...SO HAVE LOWERED EVENING POPS. KBHK
SOUNDING DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH CIN AS OTHER AREAS AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH MAY HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SO WILL KEEP
A LOW POP THERE. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY 12Z SUN. ECMWF WAS HOLDING UP THE FRONT AND WAS THE
OUTLIER SO WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF DISTRIBUTION...SO USED A COMPROMISE AND
KEPT POPS LOW. WOULD NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPES WILL BE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. REGARDING WINDS...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 MB/3HR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN MOST FIREWORK
CELEBRATIONS WILL BE OVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE JET DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN
EVENING...AND SHORTWAVES WITH INCREASED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS STILL HAD QPF DISCREPANCIES ON
SUN...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE OVER AN INCH AND THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS
WERE NOT UNSTABLE...SO WILL GO WITH SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER.
MIXING WILL BARELY GET TO 700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE
FACTORS TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. THE GFS AND WRF PUSH PRECIPITATION S OF THE AREA DURING SUN
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP QPF OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/WRF
SOLUTIONS AND DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL...MAINLY
LOW-END OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE LARGE
SCALE...A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BREAK DOWN BY LATE
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES INLAND. THE NET RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO BE BUILDING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A TRANSITION BACK TO A WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE
90 F BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER EARLY-WEEK HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE IDEA
OF A STRONGER NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEY OFFERED UP SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO
LATE-WEEK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...WE HELD FORECAST POPS
MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...AND BASED OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON A 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY FOLLOW
THE FRONT AS WELL...MAINLY AFTER 06 UTC. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 060/070 052/077 056/084 058/083 060/090 063/091
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 095 054/071 046/078 050/084 051/082 053/088 056/088
    1/U 23/W    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
HDN 099 059/073 052/079 055/087 057/085 059/092 062/094
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 098 060/073 051/076 054/085 058/084 060/091 064/092
    0/U 23/W    11/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 095 060/077 053/076 054/084 058/083 060/089 063/092
    1/U 24/W    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 092 058/073 050/072 050/078 054/079 056/086 060/087
    0/U 24/W    21/B    02/T    32/T    21/B    22/T
SHR 092 056/071 049/073 052/081 054/079 054/086 057/087
    0/U 24/W    31/B    22/T    33/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040853
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THIS PACKAGE...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK
ZONAL FLOW TODAY...IN BETWEEN CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A MONSOONAL RIDGE TO THE S. ONLY WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. WRF SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN INVERTED-V PROFILE
OVER THE AREA...SIGNALING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DID
AGREE ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS SO WILL HAVE A
POP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S GIVEN MIXING ABOVE 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE +12 TO +16 DEGREES C. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK JET DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT S INTO THE AREA BY 06Z. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY BASED ON DRY SOUNDINGS AND A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CIN OVER THE AREA...SO HAVE LOWERED EVENING POPS. KBHK
SOUNDING DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH CIN AS OTHER AREAS AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH MAY HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SO WILL KEEP
A LOW POP THERE. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY 12Z SUN. ECMWF WAS HOLDING UP THE FRONT AND WAS THE
OUTLIER SO WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF DISTRIBUTION...SO USED A COMPROMISE AND
KEPT POPS LOW. WOULD NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPES WILL BE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. REGARDING WINDS...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 MB/3HR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN MOST FIREWORK
CELEBRATIONS WILL BE OVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE JET DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN
EVENING...AND SHORTWAVES WITH INCREASED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS STILL HAD QPF DISCREPANCIES ON
SUN...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE OVER AN INCH AND THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS
WERE NOT UNSTABLE...SO WILL GO WITH SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER.
MIXING WILL BARELY GET TO 700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE
FACTORS TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. THE GFS AND WRF PUSH PRECIPITATION S OF THE AREA DURING SUN
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP QPF OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/WRF
SOLUTIONS AND DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL...MAINLY
LOW-END OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE LARGE
SCALE...A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BREAK DOWN BY LATE
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES INLAND. THE NET RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO BE BUILDING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A TRANSITION BACK TO A WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE
90 F BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER EARLY-WEEK HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE IDEA
OF A STRONGER NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEY OFFERED UP SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO
LATE-WEEK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...WE HELD FORECAST POPS
MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...AND BASED OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON A 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY FOLLOW
THE FRONT AS WELL...MAINLY AFTER 06 UTC. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 060/070 052/077 056/084 058/083 060/090 063/091
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 095 054/071 046/078 050/084 051/082 053/088 056/088
    1/U 23/W    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
HDN 099 059/073 052/079 055/087 057/085 059/092 062/094
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 098 060/073 051/076 054/085 058/084 060/091 064/092
    0/U 23/W    11/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 095 060/077 053/076 054/084 058/083 060/089 063/092
    1/U 24/W    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 092 058/073 050/072 050/078 054/079 056/086 060/087
    0/U 24/W    21/B    02/T    32/T    21/B    22/T
SHR 092 056/071 049/073 052/081 054/079 054/086 057/087
    0/U 24/W    31/B    22/T    33/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040853
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THIS PACKAGE...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK
ZONAL FLOW TODAY...IN BETWEEN CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A MONSOONAL RIDGE TO THE S. ONLY WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. WRF SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN INVERTED-V PROFILE
OVER THE AREA...SIGNALING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DID
AGREE ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS SO WILL HAVE A
POP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S GIVEN MIXING ABOVE 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE +12 TO +16 DEGREES C. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK JET DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT S INTO THE AREA BY 06Z. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY BASED ON DRY SOUNDINGS AND A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CIN OVER THE AREA...SO HAVE LOWERED EVENING POPS. KBHK
SOUNDING DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH CIN AS OTHER AREAS AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH MAY HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SO WILL KEEP
A LOW POP THERE. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY 12Z SUN. ECMWF WAS HOLDING UP THE FRONT AND WAS THE
OUTLIER SO WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF DISTRIBUTION...SO USED A COMPROMISE AND
KEPT POPS LOW. WOULD NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPES WILL BE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. REGARDING WINDS...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 MB/3HR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN MOST FIREWORK
CELEBRATIONS WILL BE OVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE JET DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN
EVENING...AND SHORTWAVES WITH INCREASED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS STILL HAD QPF DISCREPANCIES ON
SUN...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE OVER AN INCH AND THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS
WERE NOT UNSTABLE...SO WILL GO WITH SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER.
MIXING WILL BARELY GET TO 700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE
FACTORS TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. THE GFS AND WRF PUSH PRECIPITATION S OF THE AREA DURING SUN
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP QPF OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/WRF
SOLUTIONS AND DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL...MAINLY
LOW-END OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE LARGE
SCALE...A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BREAK DOWN BY LATE
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES INLAND. THE NET RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO BE BUILDING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A TRANSITION BACK TO A WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE
90 F BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER EARLY-WEEK HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE IDEA
OF A STRONGER NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEY OFFERED UP SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO
LATE-WEEK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...WE HELD FORECAST POPS
MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...AND BASED OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON A 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY FOLLOW
THE FRONT AS WELL...MAINLY AFTER 06 UTC. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 060/070 052/077 056/084 058/083 060/090 063/091
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 095 054/071 046/078 050/084 051/082 053/088 056/088
    1/U 23/W    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
HDN 099 059/073 052/079 055/087 057/085 059/092 062/094
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 098 060/073 051/076 054/085 058/084 060/091 064/092
    0/U 23/W    11/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 095 060/077 053/076 054/084 058/083 060/089 063/092
    1/U 24/W    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 092 058/073 050/072 050/078 054/079 056/086 060/087
    0/U 24/W    21/B    02/T    32/T    21/B    22/T
SHR 092 056/071 049/073 052/081 054/079 054/086 057/087
    0/U 24/W    31/B    22/T    33/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040853
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR THIS PACKAGE...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK
ZONAL FLOW TODAY...IN BETWEEN CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND A MONSOONAL RIDGE TO THE S. ONLY WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. WRF SOUNDINGS SHOWED AN INVERTED-V PROFILE
OVER THE AREA...SIGNALING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DID
AGREE ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS SO WILL HAVE A
POP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S GIVEN MIXING ABOVE 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE +12 TO +16 DEGREES C. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

WEAK JET DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT S INTO THE AREA BY 06Z. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY BASED ON DRY SOUNDINGS AND A LARGE
AMOUNT OF CIN OVER THE AREA...SO HAVE LOWERED EVENING POPS. KBHK
SOUNDING DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH CIN AS OTHER AREAS AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH MAY HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION IN THAT AREA SO WILL KEEP
A LOW POP THERE. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY 12Z SUN. ECMWF WAS HOLDING UP THE FRONT AND WAS THE
OUTLIER SO WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF DISTRIBUTION...SO USED A COMPROMISE AND
KEPT POPS LOW. WOULD NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AS CAPES WILL BE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. REGARDING WINDS...PRESSURE RISES WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 MB/3HR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN MOST FIREWORK
CELEBRATIONS WILL BE OVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE JET DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN
EVENING...AND SHORTWAVES WITH INCREASED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS STILL HAD QPF DISCREPANCIES ON
SUN...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE OVER AN INCH AND THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE SCATTERED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUNDINGS
WERE NOT UNSTABLE...SO WILL GO WITH SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER.
MIXING WILL BARELY GET TO 700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE
FACTORS TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. THE GFS AND WRF PUSH PRECIPITATION S OF THE AREA DURING SUN
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP QPF OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/WRF
SOLUTIONS AND DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL...MAINLY
LOW-END OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE LARGE
SCALE...A PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BREAK DOWN BY LATE
WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROUGH NUDGES INLAND. THE NET RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO BE BUILDING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A TRANSITION BACK TO A WESTERLY
OR EVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE
90 F BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER EARLY-WEEK HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S. THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE IDEA
OF A STRONGER NORTHWEST-FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEY OFFERED UP SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO
LATE-WEEK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...WE HELD FORECAST POPS
MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...AND BASED OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON A 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY FOLLOW
THE FRONT AS WELL...MAINLY AFTER 06 UTC. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 060/070 052/077 056/084 058/083 060/090 063/091
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 095 054/071 046/078 050/084 051/082 053/088 056/088
    1/U 23/W    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
HDN 099 059/073 052/079 055/087 057/085 059/092 062/094
    1/U 23/W    21/B    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T
MLS 098 060/073 051/076 054/085 058/084 060/091 064/092
    0/U 23/W    11/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 095 060/077 053/076 054/084 058/083 060/089 063/092
    1/U 24/W    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 092 058/073 050/072 050/078 054/079 056/086 060/087
    0/U 24/W    21/B    02/T    32/T    21/B    22/T
SHR 092 056/071 049/073 052/081 054/079 054/086 057/087
    0/U 24/W    31/B    22/T    33/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040217
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
817 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. WILL SEE SOME RESIDUAL
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IN STORE. SMOKE FILTERING IN FROM
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO
GOING FORECAST. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SATELLITE SHOWING A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THEM MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING. BIG PICTURE SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND IT INTO NORTHERN BC. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD SATURDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURES OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL FALL THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY. THIS WILL SET UP FOR BETTER MIXING SATURDAY WITH
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S. IT
WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR HIGH ELEVATION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

BIG STORY NUMBER ONE IS THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE
CANADIAN SYSTEM AT THE GUSTY WINDS IT WILL BRING WITH IT. TIMING
IS INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE FOR LATE EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR THE BILLINGS AREA. BELIEVE THE
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT FIREWORKS DISPLAYS IN
BILLINGS AND LAUREL...COULD BE A BIT MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR FOLKS
ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER. STILL WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT EXPECT NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS TO
KEEP SOME OF THE STRONGEST WIND FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
EXCEPTION WE ARE WATCHING TO THIS WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO FORM OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND HELP
ACCELERATE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. OTHER CONCERN IS ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG OR ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA.
DO NOT THINK THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH SO BEST CHANCE
FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE IN AREAS WHERE THE FRONTAL UPSLOPE MAY HELP
RELEASE SOME BRIEF CONVECTION OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HEADING INTO
WYOMING.

BIG STORY NUMBER TWO IS HOW COLD ITS GOING TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUIDANCE INDICATES ENOUGH CLOUD AND UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION MAY BE
AROUND TO LIMIT INSOLATION AND GFS IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UPWARD AND HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS. ONE QUESTION WITH THE NORTHERLY PUSH OF THIS SYSTEM IS
WHETHER IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE INTO THE AREA.
SUSPECT COMBINATION OF LESS FIRE ACTIVITY UNDER THE AIRMASS AND
PRECIPITATION HELPING CLEAN THE ATMOSPHERE OUT A BIT SHOULD LIMIT
THIS IMPACT. BORSUM


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO A
WESTERLY LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND SOUTHERN ZONES. AT MIDWEEK...A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND PRODUCING
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE GFS IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH DYNAMICS
MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THIS PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF IS
KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER US LONGER AND IS THUS DRIER AT
MIDWEEK...THEN WETTER AT END OF THE WORK WEEK. THUS...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE...I KEPT THE POPS ON THE
PLAINS GENERALLY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THUS KEPT FORECASTS NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPS AND POPS. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS PRONOUNCED.
REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/096 060/070 057/078 057/085 059/083 060/088 062/089
    11/U    34/T    22/T    21/B    23/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 055/095 054/071 050/078 051/083 052/082 054/087 055/086
    11/U    24/T    22/T    24/T    33/T    34/T    42/T
HDN 061/098 059/072 056/080 057/087 058/086 059/090 061/091
    11/U    34/T    21/B    11/B    23/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 063/097 061/073 054/077 056/086 058/084 060/090 064/090
    10/U    34/T    11/B    01/U    22/T    23/T    32/T
4BQ 062/095 060/071 056/077 057/084 059/084 060/088 062/089
    11/U    25/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    23/T    32/T
BHK 060/092 058/070 052/073 052/080 054/079 056/085 059/085
    00/U    25/T    21/B    01/B    32/T    23/T    32/T
SHR 057/092 056/068 052/074 053/081 054/081 054/085 057/085
    10/U    24/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 032053
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SATELLITE SHOWING A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THEM MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING. BIG PICTURE SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND IT INTO NORTHERN BC. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD SATURDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURES OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL FALL THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY. THIS WILL SET UP FOR BETTER MIXING SATURDAY WITH
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S. IT
WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR HIGH ELEVATION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

BIG STORY NUMBER ONE IS THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE
CANADIAN SYSTEM AT THE GUSTY WINDS IT WILL BRING WITH IT. TIMING
IS INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE FOR LATE EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR THE BILLINGS AREA. BELIEVE THE
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT FIREWORKS DISPLAYS IN
BILLINGS AND LAUREL...COULD BE A BIT MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR FOLKS
ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER. STILL WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT EXPECT NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS TO
KEEP SOME OF THE STRONGEST WIND FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
EXCEPTION WE ARE WATCHING TO THIS WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO FORM OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND HELP
ACCELERATE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. OTHER CONCERN IS ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG OR ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA.
DO NOT THINK THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH SO BEST CHANCE
FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE IN AREAS WHERE THE FRONTAL UPSLOPE MAY HELP
RELEASE SOME BRIEF CONVECTION OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HEADING INTO
WYOMING.

BIG STORY NUMBER TWO IS HOW COLD ITS GOING TO BE BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUIDANCE INDICATES ENOUGH CLOUD AND UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION MAY BE
AROUND TO LIMIT INSOLATION AND GFS IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UPWARD AND HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS. ONE QUESTION WITH THE NORTHERLY PUSH OF THIS SYSTEM IS
WHETHER IT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE INTO THE AREA.
SUSPECT COMBINATION OF LESS FIRE ACTIVITY UNDER THE AIRMASS AND
PRECIPITATION HELPING CLEAN THE ATMOSPHERE OUT A BIT SHOULD LIMIT
THIS IMPACT. BORSUM


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO A
WESTERLY LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND SOUTHERN ZONES. AT MIDWEEK...A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND PRODUCING
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE GFS IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH DYNAMICS
MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THIS PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF IS
KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER US LONGER AND IS THUS DRIER AT
MIDWEEK...THEN WETTER AT END OF THE WORK WEEK. THUS...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE...I KEPT THE POPS ON THE
PLAINS GENERALLY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THUS KEPT FORECASTS NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPS AND POPS. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 23 AND 06 UTC...MAINLY
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS PRONOUNCED ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THAN IT
HAS BEEN THE LAST DAY OR TWO. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/096 060/070 057/078 057/085 059/083 060/088 062/089
    11/U    34/T    22/T    21/B    23/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 055/095 054/071 050/078 051/083 052/082 054/087 055/086
    11/U    24/T    22/T    24/T    33/T    34/T    42/T
HDN 061/098 059/072 056/080 057/087 058/086 059/090 061/091
    11/U    34/T    21/B    11/B    23/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 063/097 061/073 054/077 056/086 058/084 060/090 064/090
    10/U    34/T    11/B    01/U    22/T    23/T    32/T
4BQ 062/095 060/071 056/077 057/084 059/084 060/088 062/089
    11/U    25/T    21/B    11/B    22/T    23/T    32/T
BHK 060/092 058/070 052/073 052/080 054/079 056/085 059/085
    00/U    25/T    21/B    01/B    32/T    23/T    32/T
SHR 057/092 056/068 052/074 053/081 054/081 054/085 057/085
    10/U    24/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031527
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
927 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SMOKE MIXING OUT A BIT QUICKER OVER
EASTERN MONTANA DUE TO A NORTHWESTERLY PUSH ACROSS ALBERTA
WEAKENING THE SMOKE PUSH INTO THE LOWER 48. STILL WILL BE HAZY BUT
EXPECT BETTER SUNLIGHT TO FURTHER MIX OUT THE SMOKE. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE WERE TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
ONE WAS MOVING E INTO W CENTRAL MT AND THE OTHER ONE WAS A
STREAMWISE WAVE MOVING SE THROUGH E MT. MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE WESTERN WAVE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. KLVM SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORMS...SO INCLUDED
POPS THERE. POPS FOR THE E WERE A LITTLE TRICKIER GIVEN LIMITED
LIFT. THE KBHK SOUNDING SUPPORTED CONVECTION AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WERE GOING WITH SOME LOW POPS SO HAVE INCLUDED KBHK IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO KBHK THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
HAZE/FOG PRESENT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.

MODELS KEPT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THIS EVENING SO HAVE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z. CHANCES FOR EASTERN CONVECTION WILL
END AS THE EASTERN WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WRAPS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. MIXING WILL AGAIN
REACH AT LEAST 700 MB AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE +12 TO +16
DEGREES C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT
BE STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS. MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE QPF WITH THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. STROVE FOR A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AFTER 06Z BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE FROM
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET. NOT MUCH CAPE WAS
FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT SO CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS DID NOT LOOK GUSTY UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT BY
WHICH TIME FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS WILL BE WINDING DOWN. REGARDING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SINCE THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT
NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF HEADLINING THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AND DISCUSSING THE IMPACTS IN SOCIAL MEDIA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL END ON A MUCH COOLER NOTE...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S F IN THE WAKE
OF SATURDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY TOO THANKS TO UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-KT 300-MB JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE 00 UTC
GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AND THUS SUPPORTIVE OF
EVEN COOLER-THAN-ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF.
WE HELD POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
NOW GIVEN THOSE DISPARITIES.

NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FEATURE A WARMING TREND AND SEVERAL LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PROGRESSIVE 500-MB FLOW.
THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
THAT TIME PERIOD MAY BE FAVORED FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR-TYPE VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 06 UTC...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 063/096 060/072 057/080 059/085 058/079 058/082
    0/B 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 090 055/095 054/073 050/081 053/085 053/077 051/082
    2/T 11/U    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 092 061/098 059/074 056/082 057/088 058/082 058/083
    0/B 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 089 063/097 061/075 054/079 057/086 059/081 058/082
    0/U 10/U    24/T    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 088 062/095 060/073 056/079 058/086 060/081 059/081
    0/U 11/U    24/T    21/B    12/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 084 060/092 058/072 052/074 053/082 057/078 055/077
    2/T 00/U    24/T    21/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 087 057/092 056/070 052/077 054/082 055/078 054/080
    1/B 10/U    24/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031527
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
927 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SMOKE MIXING OUT A BIT QUICKER OVER
EASTERN MONTANA DUE TO A NORTHWESTERLY PUSH ACROSS ALBERTA
WEAKENING THE SMOKE PUSH INTO THE LOWER 48. STILL WILL BE HAZY BUT
EXPECT BETTER SUNLIGHT TO FURTHER MIX OUT THE SMOKE. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE WERE TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
ONE WAS MOVING E INTO W CENTRAL MT AND THE OTHER ONE WAS A
STREAMWISE WAVE MOVING SE THROUGH E MT. MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE WESTERN WAVE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. KLVM SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORMS...SO INCLUDED
POPS THERE. POPS FOR THE E WERE A LITTLE TRICKIER GIVEN LIMITED
LIFT. THE KBHK SOUNDING SUPPORTED CONVECTION AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WERE GOING WITH SOME LOW POPS SO HAVE INCLUDED KBHK IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO KBHK THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
HAZE/FOG PRESENT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.

MODELS KEPT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THIS EVENING SO HAVE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z. CHANCES FOR EASTERN CONVECTION WILL
END AS THE EASTERN WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WRAPS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. MIXING WILL AGAIN
REACH AT LEAST 700 MB AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE +12 TO +16
DEGREES C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT
BE STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS. MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE QPF WITH THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. STROVE FOR A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AFTER 06Z BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE FROM
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET. NOT MUCH CAPE WAS
FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT SO CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS DID NOT LOOK GUSTY UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT BY
WHICH TIME FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS WILL BE WINDING DOWN. REGARDING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SINCE THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT
NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF HEADLINING THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AND DISCUSSING THE IMPACTS IN SOCIAL MEDIA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL END ON A MUCH COOLER NOTE...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S F IN THE WAKE
OF SATURDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY TOO THANKS TO UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-KT 300-MB JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE 00 UTC
GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AND THUS SUPPORTIVE OF
EVEN COOLER-THAN-ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF.
WE HELD POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
NOW GIVEN THOSE DISPARITIES.

NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FEATURE A WARMING TREND AND SEVERAL LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PROGRESSIVE 500-MB FLOW.
THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
THAT TIME PERIOD MAY BE FAVORED FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR-TYPE VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 06 UTC...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 063/096 060/072 057/080 059/085 058/079 058/082
    0/B 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 090 055/095 054/073 050/081 053/085 053/077 051/082
    2/T 11/U    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 092 061/098 059/074 056/082 057/088 058/082 058/083
    0/B 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 089 063/097 061/075 054/079 057/086 059/081 058/082
    0/U 10/U    24/T    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 088 062/095 060/073 056/079 058/086 060/081 059/081
    0/U 11/U    24/T    21/B    12/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 084 060/092 058/072 052/074 053/082 057/078 055/077
    2/T 00/U    24/T    21/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 087 057/092 056/070 052/077 054/082 055/078 054/080
    1/B 10/U    24/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030841
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
241 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE WERE TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
ONE WAS MOVING E INTO W CENTRAL MT AND THE OTHER ONE WAS A
STREAMWISE WAVE MOVING SE THROUGH E MT. MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE WESTERN WAVE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. KLVM SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORMS...SO INCLUDED
POPS THERE. POPS FOR THE E WERE A LITTLE TRICKIER GIVEN LIMITED
LIFT. THE KBHK SOUNDING SUPPORTED CONVECTION AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WERE GOING WITH SOME LOW POPS SO HAVE INCLUDED KBHK IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO KBHK THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
HAZE/FOG PRESENT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.

MODELS KEPT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THIS EVENING SO HAVE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z. CHANCES FOR EASTERN CONVECTION WILL
END AS THE EASTERN WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WRAPS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. MIXING WILL AGAIN
REACH AT LEAST 700 MB AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE +12 TO +16
DEGREES C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT
BE STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS. MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE QPF WITH THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. STROVE FOR A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AFTER 06Z BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE FROM
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET. NOT MUCH CAPE WAS
FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT SO CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS DID NOT LOOK GUSTY UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT BY
WHICH TIME FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS WILL BE WINDING DOWN. REGARDING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SINCE THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT
NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF HEADLINING THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AND DISCUSSING THE IMPACTS IN SOCIAL MEDIA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL END ON A MUCH COOLER NOTE...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S F IN THE WAKE
OF SATURDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY TOO THANKS TO UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-KT 300-MB JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE 00 UTC
GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AND THUS SUPPORTIVE OF
EVEN COOLER-THAN-ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF.
WE HELD POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
NOW GIVEN THOSE DISPARITIES.

NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FEATURE A WARMING TREND AND SEVERAL LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PROGRESSIVE 500-MB FLOW.
THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
THAT TIME PERIOD MAY BE FAVORED FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR-TYPE VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 06 UTC...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 063/096 060/072 057/080 059/085 058/079 058/082
    0/B 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 090 055/095 054/073 050/081 053/085 053/077 051/082
    2/T 11/U    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 092 061/098 059/074 056/082 057/088 058/082 058/083
    0/U 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 089 063/097 061/075 054/079 057/086 059/081 058/082
    0/K 10/U    24/T    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 088 062/095 060/073 056/079 058/086 060/081 059/081
    0/K 11/U    24/T    21/B    12/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 084 060/092 058/072 052/074 053/082 057/078 055/077
    2/T 00/U    24/T    21/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 087 057/092 056/070 052/077 054/082 055/078 054/080
    1/B 10/U    24/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030841
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
241 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE WERE TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
ONE WAS MOVING E INTO W CENTRAL MT AND THE OTHER ONE WAS A
STREAMWISE WAVE MOVING SE THROUGH E MT. MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE WESTERN WAVE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. KLVM SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORMS...SO INCLUDED
POPS THERE. POPS FOR THE E WERE A LITTLE TRICKIER GIVEN LIMITED
LIFT. THE KBHK SOUNDING SUPPORTED CONVECTION AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WERE GOING WITH SOME LOW POPS SO HAVE INCLUDED KBHK IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO KBHK THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
HAZE/FOG PRESENT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.

MODELS KEPT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THIS EVENING SO HAVE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z. CHANCES FOR EASTERN CONVECTION WILL
END AS THE EASTERN WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WRAPS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. MIXING WILL AGAIN
REACH AT LEAST 700 MB AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE +12 TO +16
DEGREES C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT
BE STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS. MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE QPF WITH THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. STROVE FOR A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AFTER 06Z BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE FROM
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET. NOT MUCH CAPE WAS
FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT SO CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS DID NOT LOOK GUSTY UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT BY
WHICH TIME FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS WILL BE WINDING DOWN. REGARDING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SINCE THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT
NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF HEADLINING THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AND DISCUSSING THE IMPACTS IN SOCIAL MEDIA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL END ON A MUCH COOLER NOTE...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S F IN THE WAKE
OF SATURDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY TOO THANKS TO UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-KT 300-MB JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE 00 UTC
GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AND THUS SUPPORTIVE OF
EVEN COOLER-THAN-ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF.
WE HELD POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
NOW GIVEN THOSE DISPARITIES.

NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FEATURE A WARMING TREND AND SEVERAL LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PROGRESSIVE 500-MB FLOW.
THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
THAT TIME PERIOD MAY BE FAVORED FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR-TYPE VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 06 UTC...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 063/096 060/072 057/080 059/085 058/079 058/082
    0/B 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 090 055/095 054/073 050/081 053/085 053/077 051/082
    2/T 11/U    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 092 061/098 059/074 056/082 057/088 058/082 058/083
    0/U 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 089 063/097 061/075 054/079 057/086 059/081 058/082
    0/K 10/U    24/T    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 088 062/095 060/073 056/079 058/086 060/081 059/081
    0/K 11/U    24/T    21/B    12/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 084 060/092 058/072 052/074 053/082 057/078 055/077
    2/T 00/U    24/T    21/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 087 057/092 056/070 052/077 054/082 055/078 054/080
    1/B 10/U    24/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030841
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
241 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE WERE TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
ONE WAS MOVING E INTO W CENTRAL MT AND THE OTHER ONE WAS A
STREAMWISE WAVE MOVING SE THROUGH E MT. MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE WESTERN WAVE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. KLVM SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORMS...SO INCLUDED
POPS THERE. POPS FOR THE E WERE A LITTLE TRICKIER GIVEN LIMITED
LIFT. THE KBHK SOUNDING SUPPORTED CONVECTION AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WERE GOING WITH SOME LOW POPS SO HAVE INCLUDED KBHK IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO KBHK THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
HAZE/FOG PRESENT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.

MODELS KEPT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THIS EVENING SO HAVE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z. CHANCES FOR EASTERN CONVECTION WILL
END AS THE EASTERN WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WRAPS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. MIXING WILL AGAIN
REACH AT LEAST 700 MB AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE +12 TO +16
DEGREES C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT
BE STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS. MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE QPF WITH THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. STROVE FOR A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AFTER 06Z BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE FROM
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET. NOT MUCH CAPE WAS
FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT SO CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS DID NOT LOOK GUSTY UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT BY
WHICH TIME FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS WILL BE WINDING DOWN. REGARDING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SINCE THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT
NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF HEADLINING THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AND DISCUSSING THE IMPACTS IN SOCIAL MEDIA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL END ON A MUCH COOLER NOTE...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S F IN THE WAKE
OF SATURDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY TOO THANKS TO UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-KT 300-MB JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE 00 UTC
GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AND THUS SUPPORTIVE OF
EVEN COOLER-THAN-ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF.
WE HELD POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
NOW GIVEN THOSE DISPARITIES.

NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FEATURE A WARMING TREND AND SEVERAL LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PROGRESSIVE 500-MB FLOW.
THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
THAT TIME PERIOD MAY BE FAVORED FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR-TYPE VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 06 UTC...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 063/096 060/072 057/080 059/085 058/079 058/082
    0/B 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 090 055/095 054/073 050/081 053/085 053/077 051/082
    2/T 11/U    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 092 061/098 059/074 056/082 057/088 058/082 058/083
    0/U 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 089 063/097 061/075 054/079 057/086 059/081 058/082
    0/K 10/U    24/T    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 088 062/095 060/073 056/079 058/086 060/081 059/081
    0/K 11/U    24/T    21/B    12/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 084 060/092 058/072 052/074 053/082 057/078 055/077
    2/T 00/U    24/T    21/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 087 057/092 056/070 052/077 054/082 055/078 054/080
    1/B 10/U    24/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030841
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
241 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE WERE TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
ONE WAS MOVING E INTO W CENTRAL MT AND THE OTHER ONE WAS A
STREAMWISE WAVE MOVING SE THROUGH E MT. MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE WESTERN WAVE WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. KLVM SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORMS...SO INCLUDED
POPS THERE. POPS FOR THE E WERE A LITTLE TRICKIER GIVEN LIMITED
LIFT. THE KBHK SOUNDING SUPPORTED CONVECTION AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES WERE GOING WITH SOME LOW POPS SO HAVE INCLUDED KBHK IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE. ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO KBHK THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
HAZE/FOG PRESENT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. MIXING TO NEAR 700 MB
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.

MODELS KEPT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THIS EVENING SO HAVE POPS
OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z. CHANCES FOR EASTERN CONVECTION WILL
END AS THE EASTERN WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE WRAPS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. MIXING WILL AGAIN
REACH AT LEAST 700 MB AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE +12 TO +16
DEGREES C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT
BE STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS. MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE QPF WITH THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. STROVE FOR A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AFTER 06Z BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE FROM
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET. NOT MUCH CAPE WAS
FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT SO CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS DID NOT LOOK GUSTY UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT BY
WHICH TIME FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS WILL BE WINDING DOWN. REGARDING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SINCE THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH AT
NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF HEADLINING THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AND DISCUSSING THE IMPACTS IN SOCIAL MEDIA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL END ON A MUCH COOLER NOTE...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S F IN THE WAKE
OF SATURDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY TOO THANKS TO UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-KT 300-MB JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE 00 UTC
GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION AND THUS SUPPORTIVE OF
EVEN COOLER-THAN-ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THAN THE ECMWF.
WE HELD POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
NOW GIVEN THOSE DISPARITIES.

NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FEATURE A WARMING TREND AND SEVERAL LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PROGRESSIVE 500-MB FLOW.
THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO
THAT TIME PERIOD MAY BE FAVORED FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR-TYPE VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15 AND 06 UTC...MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 063/096 060/072 057/080 059/085 058/079 058/082
    0/B 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 090 055/095 054/073 050/081 053/085 053/077 051/082
    2/T 11/U    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 092 061/098 059/074 056/082 057/088 058/082 058/083
    0/U 11/U    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 089 063/097 061/075 054/079 057/086 059/081 058/082
    0/K 10/U    24/T    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 088 062/095 060/073 056/079 058/086 060/081 059/081
    0/K 11/U    24/T    21/B    12/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 084 060/092 058/072 052/074 053/082 057/078 055/077
    2/T 00/U    24/T    21/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 087 057/092 056/070 052/077 054/082 055/078 054/080
    1/B 10/U    24/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
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