Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 222056
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT BLASTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MAINLY WIND LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED WELL EAST INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO OUR AREA
ON THURSDAY. BUT FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA ALLOWING FOR A LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA
BRINGING A RETURNED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 15-17C RANGE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE LACKING SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL DOWN FRIDAY BUT
READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MAIN TAKE AWAY FROM THE EXTENDED MODELS IS THAT THERE IS MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THIS RUN AND THAT THERE IS
DEFINITELY A PATTERN SHIFT IN PROGRESS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC AND MORE JET ENERGY BUILDING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHERE A RIDGE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE LATEST GFS RUN FLIP-FLOPPED OFF ITS PREVIOUS TROF FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME AND TRENDED TOWARD THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY HAS TRENDED SLOWER LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PROGRESSIVE TROF PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENERGY IS DIS-JOINTED AND A
DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE SO KEPT LOWER ELEVATION
LOW WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. HEIGHTS
INCREASE ON TUESDAY UNDER PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. JET STREAM OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL PUSH A GOOD DEAL OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AND CAP TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER AREA OF
WEAK ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SURGE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT. KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR THIS FEATURE AND
CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN LIMIT HEATING HOLDING TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FOR THE LATER EXTENDED THE GFS HAD DEVELOPED A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THE LATEST RUNS
HAVE FLOPPED TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THOSE HOPING FOR MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER...THE CFS LONG RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET FOR MOST AREAS. WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT INCLUDING THE KLVM TAF SITE. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/070 048/064 042/070 043/059 036/054 032/056 040/058
    00/B    10/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    12/W
LVM 041/068 045/063 041/069 043/052 031/049 030/053 036/054
    00/N    11/N    10/U    13/W    32/W    11/U    22/W
HDN 038/073 043/070 038/072 040/062 035/055 029/058 036/060
    00/B    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    12/W
MLS 037/072 043/068 041/070 042/063 038/053 030/056 037/056
    00/U    00/B    00/B    02/W    21/N    11/U    12/W
4BQ 037/071 042/069 039/071 045/062 037/054 031/056 036/058
    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    12/W
BHK 035/070 041/067 037/065 040/061 036/051 028/051 035/054
    00/U    00/B    00/B    02/W    21/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 032/072 041/068 037/073 040/063 032/053 026/057 029/059
    00/B    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/U    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 221549
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
949 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT IS WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE DAY. A FEW
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS...BUT
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

OVERALL SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

TROF CROSSING THE REGION WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY. BEST ENERGY
AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROF...WHICH IS
WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP IN THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
TODAY...AS TROF PUSHES EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING/NIGHT...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMUP TO THE
AREA. THIS RIDGING DOES SLIP OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...ALLOWING A RETURN OF SHALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOWE TO THE
REGION BYT THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OPENS THE DOOR FOR
SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE TO REACH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FACING
SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH / ABSAROKEE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. DID INCREASE MOUNTAIN POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
KEPT ISOLATED DUE SHORT WINDOW FOR PRECIP AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIFT NORTH W/ MID LEVEL WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS AS
THIS OCCURS. OTHERWISE OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD
TURN A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY BEHIND WEAK FROPA...THEN SATURDAY
SHOULD TURN WARMER AGAIN AS OVERALL FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF PAC
COAST TROF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH OF
THESE DAYS...IE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN SHIFT IS IN STORE BEGINNING SUNDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED PAC
TROF IS KICKED THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COUPLE COOLER DAYS
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEAR IN STORE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW/COOLER AIR ALOFT...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ORGANIZATION WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH A LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS SHOULD SUFFICE
FOR THESE PERIODS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER OUR CWA NEXT
TUESDAY...SO AM COMFORTABLE KEEPING POPS A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR DAY 7. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL TO MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL...HIGHS SOMEWHERE NEAR 60F ON SUNDAY THEN IN THE 50S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

EVOLUTION OF FLOW IN THE PACIFIC IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS WE GET INTO
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE EASE OUR WAY
INTO A PATTERN SHIFT. TROF NEAR 35N 170E WILL INTERACT W/ TROPICAL
STORM ANA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
FLOW WILL APPROACH THE PAC COAST AND EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW WILDLY VARYING POSSIBILITIES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES...SO MUST STRESS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OUR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES HALLOWEEN.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 042/070 047/066 042/073 044/058 036/055 034/058
    1/U 00/B    10/B    00/U    12/W    22/W    11/B
LVM 061 039/067 043/065 041/072 041/055 031/052 030/055
    0/U 00/N    11/B    10/U    23/W    22/W    11/B
HDN 067 038/073 043/070 038/074 040/060 034/056 031/059
    1/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 065 037/072 043/068 041/070 042/062 034/054 030/056
    0/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 065 037/071 042/069 039/072 042/061 034/053 030/057
    1/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 062 035/070 040/067 037/066 041/060 033/050 028/054
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/W    11/B
SHR 065 034/072 040/071 036/076 038/060 031/053 025/058
    1/U 00/B    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 220906
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
306 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

OVERALL SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

TROF CROSSING THE REGION WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY. BEST ENERGY
AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROF...WHICH IS
WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP IN THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
TODAY...AS TROF PUSHES EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING/NIGHT...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMUP TO THE
AREA. THIS RIDGING DOES SLIP OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...ALLOWING A RETURN OF SHALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE
REGION BY THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OPENS THE DOOR FOR
SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE TO REACH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FACING
SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH / ABSAROKEE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
DID INCREASE MOUNTAIN POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT
ISOLATED DUE SHORT WINDOW FOR PRECIP AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIFT NORTH W/ MID LEVEL WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS AS
THIS OCCURS. OTHERWISE OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD
TURN A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY BEHIND WEAK FROPA...THEN SATURDAY
SHOULD TURN WARMER AGAIN AS OVERALL FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF PAC
COAST TROF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH OF
THESE DAYS...IE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN SHIFT IS IN STORE BEGINNING SUNDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED PAC
TROF IS KICKED THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COUPLE COOLER DAYS
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEAR IN STORE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW/COOLER AIR ALOFT...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ORGANIZATION WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH A LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS SHOULD SUFFICE
FOR THESE PERIODS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER OUR CWA NEXT
TUESDAY...SO AM COMFORTABLE KEEPING POPS A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR DAY 7. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL TO MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL...HIGHS SOMEWHERE NEAR 60F ON SUNDAY THEN IN THE 50S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

EVOLUTION OF FLOW IN THE PACIFIC IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS WE GET INTO
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE EASE OUR WAY
INTO A PATTERN SHIFT. TROF NEAR 35N 170E WILL INTERACT W/ TROPICAL
STORM ANA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
FLOW WILL APPROACH THE PAC COAST AND EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW WILDLY VARYING POSSIBILITIES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES...SO MUST STRESS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OUR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES HALLOWEEN.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND TUESDAY EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY...WITH 15 TO 25 KT GUSTS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 042/070 047/066 042/073 044/058 036/055 034/058
    1/B 00/B    10/B    00/U    12/W    22/W    11/B
LVM 061 039/067 043/065 041/072 041/055 031/052 030/055
    1/B 00/N    11/B    10/U    23/W    22/W    11/B
HDN 067 038/073 043/070 038/074 040/060 034/056 031/059
    1/B 00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 065 037/072 043/068 041/070 042/062 034/054 030/056
    1/B 00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 065 037/071 042/069 039/072 042/061 034/053 030/057
    1/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 062 035/070 040/067 037/066 041/060 033/050 028/054
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/W    11/B
SHR 065 034/072 040/071 036/076 038/060 031/053 025/058
    1/B 00/B    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 220235
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
835 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH YELLOWSTONE COUNTY THIS HOUR WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES THROUGH THE
EVENING ADJUSTING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PLACING HIGHEST POPS TO BILLINGS EAST. SOME LIGHTNING NOTED IN THE
EAST AND ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH REMAINDER OF EVENING
AS WELL. THAT SAID...I DO NOT EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO GET MORE
THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDRETHS AT BEST. BEST FORCING EXITS OUR
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD BE SUNNY BEHIND SYSTEM
FOR TOMORROW WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER MONTANA. STRONGEST
WINDS SO FAR THIS EVENING WERE IN LIVINGSTON AREA WITH A 57 MPH
GUST. BIG TIMBER AND REEDPOINT BOTH HAD 43 MPH GUSTS...LOGAN
AIRPORT HIT A 43 MPH GUST AS WELL WITH 46 RECORDED HERE AT OUR
OFFICE ON THE WESTSIDE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SURFACE OBS SHOWING THE COLD HAEV MOVED THROUGH LIVINGSTON WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR AS PRESSURE RISES ARE OBSERVED JUST WEST OF
BILLINGS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THRUST OF THE FRONT IS IN THE VICNITY
OF BOZEMAN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS GALLATIN COUNTY AND NORTHERN PARK COUNTY AND
ARE QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-
ROUNDUP LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING
AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
LOOK TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK AS WINDY AS LAST WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. 700MB WINDS ARE ONLY
25 TO 35 KTS TONIGHT THROUGHW WEDNESAY WITH 850MB WINDS 25 TO 35
KTS TONIGHT AND 20 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...GUSTS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH A FEW POSSIBLY CLOSE
TO 50 MPH.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY BUT STIL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND TROUGHINESS TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROS THE EAST. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOWING RIDGING TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS MONTANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
DURING THE AFTERNOON....HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BY THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA RESULTING IN LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COMBINED WITH A DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST ARE OF A MINOR NATURE. OVERALL A MORE PROGRESSIVE FALL
PATTERN IS STARTING TO DEVELOP PUSHING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA
EVERY FEW DAYS...THOUGH STILL NO STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON
THE HORIZON THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY HAS A DECENT MOISTURE FEED ASSOCIATED WITH
IT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY.
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING WEST
COAST TROF. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY BUT AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY APPROACHES WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PREVENT MORE THAN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THOUGH IT COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHERE STRONG PULSE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM
THE 70S SATURDAY TOWARD MORE SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROF
KICKS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS
ON TUESDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHES OVER THE AREA MID WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH LIVINGSTON...WHERE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...GUST 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BEFORE
DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 042/070 047/066 041/073 044/057 036/055 035/058
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B    11/B
LVM 040/061 039/067 043/065 041/072 041/055 031/053 032/055
    31/B    00/N    01/B    10/U    13/W    21/B    11/B
HDN 043/067 038/073 043/070 038/074 040/060 034/057 032/059
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B    11/B
MLS 045/065 037/072 043/069 041/070 042/062 033/054 031/056
    51/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B
4BQ 044/065 037/071 042/069 040/073 042/061 034/054 031/056
    41/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/U
BHK 044/062 035/070 040/067 038/067 041/059 032/050 029/052
    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/U
SHR 041/065 034/072 040/071 037/076 038/060 030/055 027/057
    21/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 212332
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
532 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING UVV
FIELDS FROM BILLINGS TO FOOTHILLS. LOWERED EVENING POPS HERE AND
RAISED THEM TO OUR EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE LOSES INFLUENCE. CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS SUPPORT THIS CHANGE AS WELL. ALSO EXPANDED EVENING
POPS FURTHER EAST AS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN WARM
SECTOR IN POWDER RIVER/CARTER COUNTIES. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SURFACE OBS SHOWING THE COLD HAEV MOVED THROUGH LIVINGSTON WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR AS PRESSURE RISES ARE OBSERVED JUST WEST OF
BILLINGS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THRUST OF THE FRONT IS IN THE VICNITY
OF BOZEMAN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS GALLATIN COUNTY AND NORTHERN PARK COUNTY AND
ARE QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-
ROUNDUP LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING
AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
LOOK TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK AS WINDY AS LAST WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. 700MB WINDS ARE ONLY
25 TO 35 KTS TONIGHT THROUGHW WEDNESAY WITH 850MB WINDS 25 TO 35
KTS TONIGHT AND 20 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...GUSTS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH A FEW POSSIBLY CLOSE
TO 50 MPH.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY BUT STIL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND TROUGHINESS TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROS THE EAST. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOWING RIDGING TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS MONTANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
DURING THE AFTERNOON....HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BY THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA RESULTING IN LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COMBINED WITH A DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST ARE OF A MINOR NATURE. OVERALL A MORE PROGRESSIVE FALL
PATTERN IS STARTING TO DEVELOP PUSHING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA
EVERY FEW DAYS...THOUGH STILL NO STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON
THE HORIZON THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY HAS A DECENT MOISTURE FEED ASSOCIATED WITH
IT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY.
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING WEST
COAST TROF. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY BUT AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY APPROACHES WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PREVENT MORE THAN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THOUGH IT COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHERE STRONG PULSE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM
THE 70S SATURDAY TOWARD MORE SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROF
KICKS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS
ON TUESDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHES OVER THE AREA MID WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
30 TO 40KTS AT TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 042/070 047/066 041/073 044/057 036/055 035/058
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B    11/B
LVM 040/061 039/067 043/065 041/072 041/055 031/053 032/055
    31/B    00/N    01/B    10/U    13/W    21/B    11/B
HDN 043/067 038/073 043/070 038/074 040/060 034/057 032/059
    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B    11/B
MLS 045/065 037/072 043/069 041/070 042/062 033/054 031/056
    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B
4BQ 044/065 037/071 042/069 040/073 042/061 034/054 031/056
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/U
BHK 044/062 035/070 040/067 038/067 041/059 032/050 029/052
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/U
SHR 041/065 034/072 040/071 037/076 038/060 030/055 027/057
    21/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 212129
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
329 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS GALLATIN COUNTY AND NORTHERN PARK COUNTY
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND ARE QUICKLY MOVING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN- BILLINGS- ROUNDUP LINE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING AS BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. MAIN IMPACT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS WINDY AS LAST
WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. 700MB WINDS ARE ONLY 25 TO 35 KTS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB WINDS 25 TO 35 KTS TONIGHT AND 20 TO
25 KTS WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 50
MPH.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW RIDGING TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON....HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
RESULTING IN LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COMBINED WITH A DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST ARE OF A MINOR NATURE. OVERALL A MORE PROGRESSIVE FALL
PATTERN IS STARTING TO DEVELOP PUSHING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA
EVERY FEW DAYS...THOUGH STILL NO STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON
THE HORIZON THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY HAS A DECENT MOISTURE FEED ASSOCIATED WITH
IT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY.
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING WEST
COAST TROF. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY BUT AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY APPROACHES WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PREVENT MORE THAN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THOUGH IT COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHERE STRONG PULSE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM
THE 70S SATURDAY TOWARD MORE SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROF
KICKS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS
ON TUESDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHES OVER THE AREA MID WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
30 TO 40KTS AT TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 042/070 047/066 041/073 044/057 036/055 035/058
    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B    11/B
LVM 040/061 039/067 043/065 041/072 041/055 031/053 032/055
    51/B    00/N    01/B    10/U    13/W    21/B    11/B
HDN 043/067 038/073 043/070 038/074 040/060 034/057 032/059
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B    11/B
MLS 045/065 037/072 043/069 041/070 042/062 033/054 031/056
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B
4BQ 044/065 037/071 042/069 040/073 042/061 034/054 031/056
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/U
BHK 044/062 035/070 040/067 038/067 041/059 032/050 029/052
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/U
SHR 041/065 034/072 040/071 037/076 038/060 030/055 027/057
    21/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211526
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
926 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WITH THIS UPDATE. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO
IS PROVIDING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. HAVE TWEAKED SKY
COVER TO REPRESENT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAN SUNNY FROM
BILLINGS WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED FROM BILLINGS TO LIVINGSTON SO HAVE
INCREASED WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING AND TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 4O TO 50 MPH.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BILLINGS WESTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH PARK AND
WHEATLAND COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE FACT THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IDAHO/WYOMING BORDER. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS REMAINING
CONSISTENT...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH GREATEST IMPACTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INCREASING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVED SHOWER POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COMBIN WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIP. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 00Z AND EXIT
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT CROSSES THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO OF 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WESTERN
ZONES WILL ONLY REACH 60S WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER
WILL SEE HIGHS APPROACH AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS...AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO LOW TO MID 60S UNDER THE REDEVELOPING RIDGE.

FIRE WEATHER WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN TODAY. RH VALUES WILL FALL
TO TEENS AND 20 PERCENT RANGE AS TEMPERATURES RISE IN A
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER
SOME BEFORE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE DEVELOPING SITUATION. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF WRINKLES. PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME WHICH WILL IMPACT THE PAC NW DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD MAY SAG ENOUGH TO BRING THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND CRAZIES
SOME LIGHT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT TO DROP INTO OUR AREA REDUCING TEMPS A BIT FOR
FRIDAY. RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TO START THE WEEKEND. THOUGH IT IS
SEVERAL DAYS OFF YET...PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO APPROACH SOME RECORD HIGHS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF IS KICKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THOUGH MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE DETAILS...LOWER
HEIGHTS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW/COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING US THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PCPN AS RAIN.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS EACH OF THESE
DAYS...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY.
REMARKABLY...BILLINGS HAS NOT EXPERIENCED A COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAY SINCE OCTOBER 3RD.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL FOLLOW THE
COLD FRONT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 045/065 043/071 048/067 043/072 044/059 037/055
    2/T 31/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
LVM 069 040/061 040/067 044/065 042/070 042/056 034/053
    3/T 50/N    00/N    01/B    11/N    22/W    22/W
HDN 079 043/067 038/073 043/069 039/074 039/061 035/057
    0/B 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 078 045/065 038/072 044/068 041/070 041/060 035/053
    0/U 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/N    22/W
4BQ 081 044/065 037/071 042/069 039/072 042/060 035/054
    0/U 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 078 044/062 036/069 041/067 038/066 039/058 033/049
    0/U 12/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 080 040/065 034/073 039/072 037/075 038/060 032/055
    0/B 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211526
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
926 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WITH THIS UPDATE. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO
IS PROVIDING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. HAVE TWEAKED SKY
COVER TO REPRESENT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAN SUNNY FROM
BILLINGS WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED FROM BILLINGS TO LIVINGSTON SO HAVE
INCREASED WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING AND TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 4O TO 50 MPH.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BILLINGS WESTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH PARK AND
WHEATLAND COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE FACT THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IDAHO/WYOMING BORDER. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS REMAINING
CONSISTENT...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH GREATEST IMPACTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INCREASING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVED SHOWER POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COMBIN WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIP. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 00Z AND EXIT
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT CROSSES THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO OF 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WESTERN
ZONES WILL ONLY REACH 60S WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER
WILL SEE HIGHS APPROACH AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS...AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO LOW TO MID 60S UNDER THE REDEVELOPING RIDGE.

FIRE WEATHER WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN TODAY. RH VALUES WILL FALL
TO TEENS AND 20 PERCENT RANGE AS TEMPERATURES RISE IN A
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER
SOME BEFORE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE DEVELOPING SITUATION. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF WRINKLES. PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME WHICH WILL IMPACT THE PAC NW DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD MAY SAG ENOUGH TO BRING THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND CRAZIES
SOME LIGHT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT TO DROP INTO OUR AREA REDUCING TEMPS A BIT FOR
FRIDAY. RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TO START THE WEEKEND. THOUGH IT IS
SEVERAL DAYS OFF YET...PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO APPROACH SOME RECORD HIGHS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF IS KICKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THOUGH MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE DETAILS...LOWER
HEIGHTS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW/COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING US THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PCPN AS RAIN.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS EACH OF THESE
DAYS...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY.
REMARKABLY...BILLINGS HAS NOT EXPERIENCED A COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAY SINCE OCTOBER 3RD.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL FOLLOW THE
COLD FRONT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 045/065 043/071 048/067 043/072 044/059 037/055
    2/T 31/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
LVM 069 040/061 040/067 044/065 042/070 042/056 034/053
    3/T 50/N    00/N    01/B    11/N    22/W    22/W
HDN 079 043/067 038/073 043/069 039/074 039/061 035/057
    0/B 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 078 045/065 038/072 044/068 041/070 041/060 035/053
    0/U 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/N    22/W
4BQ 081 044/065 037/071 042/069 039/072 042/060 035/054
    0/U 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 078 044/062 036/069 041/067 038/066 039/058 033/049
    0/U 12/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 080 040/065 034/073 039/072 037/075 038/060 032/055
    0/B 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211526
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
926 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WITH THIS UPDATE. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO
IS PROVIDING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. HAVE TWEAKED SKY
COVER TO REPRESENT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAN SUNNY FROM
BILLINGS WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED FROM BILLINGS TO LIVINGSTON SO HAVE
INCREASED WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING AND TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 4O TO 50 MPH.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BILLINGS WESTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH PARK AND
WHEATLAND COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE FACT THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IDAHO/WYOMING BORDER. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS REMAINING
CONSISTENT...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH GREATEST IMPACTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INCREASING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVED SHOWER POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COMBIN WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIP. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 00Z AND EXIT
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT CROSSES THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO OF 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WESTERN
ZONES WILL ONLY REACH 60S WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER
WILL SEE HIGHS APPROACH AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS...AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO LOW TO MID 60S UNDER THE REDEVELOPING RIDGE.

FIRE WEATHER WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN TODAY. RH VALUES WILL FALL
TO TEENS AND 20 PERCENT RANGE AS TEMPERATURES RISE IN A
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER
SOME BEFORE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE DEVELOPING SITUATION. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF WRINKLES. PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME WHICH WILL IMPACT THE PAC NW DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD MAY SAG ENOUGH TO BRING THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND CRAZIES
SOME LIGHT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT TO DROP INTO OUR AREA REDUCING TEMPS A BIT FOR
FRIDAY. RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TO START THE WEEKEND. THOUGH IT IS
SEVERAL DAYS OFF YET...PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO APPROACH SOME RECORD HIGHS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF IS KICKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THOUGH MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE DETAILS...LOWER
HEIGHTS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW/COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING US THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PCPN AS RAIN.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS EACH OF THESE
DAYS...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY.
REMARKABLY...BILLINGS HAS NOT EXPERIENCED A COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAY SINCE OCTOBER 3RD.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL FOLLOW THE
COLD FRONT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 045/065 043/071 048/067 043/072 044/059 037/055
    2/T 31/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
LVM 069 040/061 040/067 044/065 042/070 042/056 034/053
    3/T 50/N    00/N    01/B    11/N    22/W    22/W
HDN 079 043/067 038/073 043/069 039/074 039/061 035/057
    0/B 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 078 045/065 038/072 044/068 041/070 041/060 035/053
    0/U 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/N    22/W
4BQ 081 044/065 037/071 042/069 039/072 042/060 035/054
    0/U 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 078 044/062 036/069 041/067 038/066 039/058 033/049
    0/U 12/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 080 040/065 034/073 039/072 037/075 038/060 032/055
    0/B 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211526
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
926 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
WITH THIS UPDATE. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO
IS PROVIDING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA. SATELLITE
SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD. HAVE TWEAKED SKY
COVER TO REPRESENT MORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAN SUNNY FROM
BILLINGS WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED FROM BILLINGS TO LIVINGSTON SO HAVE
INCREASED WINDS FOR THOSE AREAS INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TODAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING AND TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 4O TO 50 MPH.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BILLINGS WESTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH PARK AND
WHEATLAND COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE FACT THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IDAHO/WYOMING BORDER. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS REMAINING
CONSISTENT...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH GREATEST IMPACTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INCREASING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVED SHOWER POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COMBIN WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIP. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 00Z AND EXIT
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT CROSSES THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO OF 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WESTERN
ZONES WILL ONLY REACH 60S WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER
WILL SEE HIGHS APPROACH AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS...AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO LOW TO MID 60S UNDER THE REDEVELOPING RIDGE.

FIRE WEATHER WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN TODAY. RH VALUES WILL FALL
TO TEENS AND 20 PERCENT RANGE AS TEMPERATURES RISE IN A
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER
SOME BEFORE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE DEVELOPING SITUATION. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF WRINKLES. PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME WHICH WILL IMPACT THE PAC NW DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD MAY SAG ENOUGH TO BRING THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND CRAZIES
SOME LIGHT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT TO DROP INTO OUR AREA REDUCING TEMPS A BIT FOR
FRIDAY. RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TO START THE WEEKEND. THOUGH IT IS
SEVERAL DAYS OFF YET...PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO APPROACH SOME RECORD HIGHS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF IS KICKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THOUGH MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE DETAILS...LOWER
HEIGHTS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW/COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING US THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PCPN AS RAIN.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS EACH OF THESE
DAYS...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY.
REMARKABLY...BILLINGS HAS NOT EXPERIENCED A COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAY SINCE OCTOBER 3RD.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL FOLLOW THE
COLD FRONT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 045/065 043/071 048/067 043/072 044/059 037/055
    2/T 31/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
LVM 069 040/061 040/067 044/065 042/070 042/056 034/053
    3/T 50/N    00/N    01/B    11/N    22/W    22/W
HDN 079 043/067 038/073 043/069 039/074 039/061 035/057
    0/B 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 078 045/065 038/072 044/068 041/070 041/060 035/053
    0/U 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/N    22/W
4BQ 081 044/065 037/071 042/069 039/072 042/060 035/054
    0/U 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 078 044/062 036/069 041/067 038/066 039/058 033/049
    0/U 12/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 080 040/065 034/073 039/072 037/075 038/060 032/055
    0/B 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210849
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
249 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS REMAINING
CONSISTENT...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH GREATEST IMPACTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INCREASING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVED SHOWER POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COMBIN WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIP. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 00Z AND EXIT
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT CROSSES THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO OF 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WESTERN
ZONES WILL ONLY REACH 60S WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER
WILL SEE HIGHS APPROACH AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS...AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO LOW TO MID 60S UNDER THE REDEVELOPING RIDGE.

FIRE WEATHER WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN TODAY. RH VALUES WILL FALL
TO TEENS AND 20 PERCENT RANGE AS TEMPERATURES RISE IN A
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER
SOME BEFORE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE DEVELOPING SITUATION. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF WRINKLES. PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME WHICH WILL IMPACT THE PAC NW DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD MAY SAG ENOUGH TO BRING THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND CRAZIES
SOME LIGHT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT TO DROP INTO OUR AREA REDUCING TEMPS A BIT FOR
FRIDAY. RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TO START THE WEEKEND. THOUGH IT IS
SEVERAL DAYS OFF YET...PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO APPROACH SOME RECORD HIGHS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF IS KICKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THOUGH MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE DETAILS...LOWER
HEIGHTS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW/COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING US THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PCPN AS RAIN.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS EACH OF THESE
DAYS...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY.
REMARKABLY...BILLINGS HAS NOT EXPERIENCED A COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAY SINCE OCTOBER 3RD.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL FOLLOW THE
COLD FRONT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 045/065 043/071 048/067 043/072 044/059 037/055
    2/T 31/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
LVM 069 040/061 040/067 044/065 042/070 042/056 034/053
    3/T 50/N    00/N    01/B    11/N    22/W    22/W
HDN 079 043/067 038/073 043/069 039/074 039/061 035/057
    0/U 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 078 045/065 038/072 044/068 041/070 041/060 035/053
    0/U 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/N    22/W
4BQ 081 044/065 037/071 042/069 039/072 042/060 035/054
    0/U 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 078 044/062 036/069 041/067 038/066 039/058 033/049
    0/U 12/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 080 040/065 034/073 039/072 037/075 038/060 032/055
    0/B 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210849
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
249 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS REMAINING
CONSISTENT...BRINGING A STRONG DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH GREATEST IMPACTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INCREASING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN EARLY IN THE DAY. THE
SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVED SHOWER POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL
COMBIN WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE
REGION...WHICH WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIP. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 00Z AND EXIT
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT CROSSES THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO OF 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WESTERN
ZONES WILL ONLY REACH 60S WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER
WILL SEE HIGHS APPROACH AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. COLD AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS...AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO LOW TO MID 60S UNDER THE REDEVELOPING RIDGE.

FIRE WEATHER WILL BE OF SOME CONCERN TODAY. RH VALUES WILL FALL
TO TEENS AND 20 PERCENT RANGE AS TEMPERATURES RISE IN A
PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER
SOME BEFORE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE DEVELOPING SITUATION. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF WRINKLES. PACIFIC
MOISTURE PLUME WHICH WILL IMPACT THE PAC NW DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD MAY SAG ENOUGH TO BRING THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND CRAZIES
SOME LIGHT PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT TO DROP INTO OUR AREA REDUCING TEMPS A BIT FOR
FRIDAY. RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TO START THE WEEKEND. THOUGH IT IS
SEVERAL DAYS OFF YET...PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO APPROACH SOME RECORD HIGHS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF IS KICKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THOUGH MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE DETAILS...LOWER
HEIGHTS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW/COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING US THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL KEEP
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PCPN AS RAIN.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS EACH OF THESE
DAYS...OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY.
REMARKABLY...BILLINGS HAS NOT EXPERIENCED A COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAY SINCE OCTOBER 3RD.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY...WITH
AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING A SHIFT TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL FOLLOW THE
COLD FRONT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 045/065 043/071 048/067 043/072 044/059 037/055
    2/T 31/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
LVM 069 040/061 040/067 044/065 042/070 042/056 034/053
    3/T 50/N    00/N    01/B    11/N    22/W    22/W
HDN 079 043/067 038/073 043/069 039/074 039/061 035/057
    0/U 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 078 045/065 038/072 044/068 041/070 041/060 035/053
    0/U 32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/N    22/W
4BQ 081 044/065 037/071 042/069 039/072 042/060 035/054
    0/U 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 078 044/062 036/069 041/067 038/066 039/058 033/049
    0/U 12/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 080 040/065 034/073 039/072 037/075 038/060 032/055
    0/B 22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210253
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
853 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE NEEDED TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH UPPER JET ORIENTED N-S
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO N CA.
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A GRADUALLY MOISTENING SW FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES TOWARD SW ID. RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF JET WILL SLIDE E TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS EVENING ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
OVER ID AND FAR W MT. OTHER ECHOES WERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN SE ID/NW WY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR SHOWED SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z...BUT
GFS AND WRF TIME-HEIGHTS KEPT IT DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT. THE MORNING POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LOOKED GOOD. WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20C TONIGHT. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING CLOUDS
WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES
IN THE GAP AREAS BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES
GIVEN THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

NEW WRF HAD THE COLD FRONT REACHING SE MT BY 00Z WED WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES POST-FRONTALLY. THIS WAS IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND CURRENT FORECAST. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT
THE MOMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH READINGS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WAS BEING
PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS SITTING JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL GENERATE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH NOW...AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS LESS...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOKS BETTER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WAS MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND THE
GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO IT
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. 850-700MB WINDS WERE NOW PROGGED AT 35KTS...SO BUMPED
WINDS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS MUCH OVER 40 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OUT WEST. THE GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONGER
WINDS IN THE HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS WERE
STILL NOT PROJECTED THAT HIGH...ONLY 35KTS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO REFLECT SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH.

HUMIDIITIES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HUMIDITIES MIGHT ACTUALLY
SLIDE JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN TO KEEP
A CHECK ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS HOWEVER.

THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT COOL
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE BUT
STILL MAX OUT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL
BE VOID OF SHOWER CHANCES AS THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...SO BUMPED WINDS UP. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST...OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO BUCKLE AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH JET AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BOTH DAYS
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING OUR AREA DRY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INLAND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE SO WINDS WILL JUST BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 045/065 043/071 048/069 043/071 044/060 037/055
    02/W    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
LVM 041/069 040/061 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/058 034/053
    03/W    50/N    00/N    00/B    11/U    22/W    21/B
HDN 042/079 043/067 038/071 043/071 039/072 039/062 035/057
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 041/078 045/065 038/071 044/069 041/069 041/062 035/054
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B
4BQ 042/081 044/065 037/070 042/071 040/071 042/062 035/054
    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B
BHK 038/078 044/062 036/068 041/067 038/066 039/059 033/049
    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 038/080 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/063 032/055
    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210253
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
853 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE NEEDED TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH UPPER JET ORIENTED N-S
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO N CA.
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A GRADUALLY MOISTENING SW FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES TOWARD SW ID. RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF JET WILL SLIDE E TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS EVENING ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
OVER ID AND FAR W MT. OTHER ECHOES WERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN SE ID/NW WY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR SHOWED SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z...BUT
GFS AND WRF TIME-HEIGHTS KEPT IT DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT. THE MORNING POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LOOKED GOOD. WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20C TONIGHT. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING CLOUDS
WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES
IN THE GAP AREAS BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES
GIVEN THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

NEW WRF HAD THE COLD FRONT REACHING SE MT BY 00Z WED WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES POST-FRONTALLY. THIS WAS IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND CURRENT FORECAST. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT
THE MOMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH READINGS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WAS BEING
PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS SITTING JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL GENERATE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH NOW...AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS LESS...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOKS BETTER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WAS MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND THE
GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO IT
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. 850-700MB WINDS WERE NOW PROGGED AT 35KTS...SO BUMPED
WINDS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS MUCH OVER 40 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OUT WEST. THE GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONGER
WINDS IN THE HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS WERE
STILL NOT PROJECTED THAT HIGH...ONLY 35KTS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO REFLECT SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH.

HUMIDIITIES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HUMIDITIES MIGHT ACTUALLY
SLIDE JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN TO KEEP
A CHECK ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS HOWEVER.

THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT COOL
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE BUT
STILL MAX OUT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL
BE VOID OF SHOWER CHANCES AS THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...SO BUMPED WINDS UP. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST...OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO BUCKLE AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH JET AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BOTH DAYS
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING OUR AREA DRY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INLAND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE SO WINDS WILL JUST BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 045/065 043/071 048/069 043/071 044/060 037/055
    02/W    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
LVM 041/069 040/061 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/058 034/053
    03/W    50/N    00/N    00/B    11/U    22/W    21/B
HDN 042/079 043/067 038/071 043/071 039/072 039/062 035/057
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 041/078 045/065 038/071 044/069 041/069 041/062 035/054
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B
4BQ 042/081 044/065 037/070 042/071 040/071 042/062 035/054
    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B
BHK 038/078 044/062 036/068 041/067 038/066 039/059 033/049
    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 038/080 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/063 032/055
    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210253
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
853 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE NEEDED TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH UPPER JET ORIENTED N-S
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO N CA.
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A GRADUALLY MOISTENING SW FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES TOWARD SW ID. RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF JET WILL SLIDE E TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS EVENING ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
OVER ID AND FAR W MT. OTHER ECHOES WERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN SE ID/NW WY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR SHOWED SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z...BUT
GFS AND WRF TIME-HEIGHTS KEPT IT DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT. THE MORNING POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LOOKED GOOD. WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20C TONIGHT. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING CLOUDS
WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES
IN THE GAP AREAS BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES
GIVEN THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

NEW WRF HAD THE COLD FRONT REACHING SE MT BY 00Z WED WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES POST-FRONTALLY. THIS WAS IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND CURRENT FORECAST. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT
THE MOMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH READINGS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WAS BEING
PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS SITTING JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL GENERATE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH NOW...AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS LESS...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOKS BETTER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WAS MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND THE
GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO IT
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. 850-700MB WINDS WERE NOW PROGGED AT 35KTS...SO BUMPED
WINDS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS MUCH OVER 40 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OUT WEST. THE GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONGER
WINDS IN THE HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS WERE
STILL NOT PROJECTED THAT HIGH...ONLY 35KTS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO REFLECT SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH.

HUMIDIITIES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HUMIDITIES MIGHT ACTUALLY
SLIDE JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN TO KEEP
A CHECK ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS HOWEVER.

THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT COOL
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE BUT
STILL MAX OUT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL
BE VOID OF SHOWER CHANCES AS THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...SO BUMPED WINDS UP. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST...OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO BUCKLE AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH JET AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BOTH DAYS
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING OUR AREA DRY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INLAND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE SO WINDS WILL JUST BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 045/065 043/071 048/069 043/071 044/060 037/055
    02/W    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
LVM 041/069 040/061 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/058 034/053
    03/W    50/N    00/N    00/B    11/U    22/W    21/B
HDN 042/079 043/067 038/071 043/071 039/072 039/062 035/057
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 041/078 045/065 038/071 044/069 041/069 041/062 035/054
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B
4BQ 042/081 044/065 037/070 042/071 040/071 042/062 035/054
    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B
BHK 038/078 044/062 036/068 041/067 038/066 039/059 033/049
    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 038/080 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/063 032/055
    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210253
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
853 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE NEEDED TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH UPPER JET ORIENTED N-S
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO N CA.
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A GRADUALLY MOISTENING SW FLOW
OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES TOWARD SW ID. RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF JET WILL SLIDE E TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS EVENING ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
OVER ID AND FAR W MT. OTHER ECHOES WERE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN SE ID/NW WY EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR SHOWED SOME POSSIBLE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z...BUT
GFS AND WRF TIME-HEIGHTS KEPT IT DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT. THE MORNING POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LOOKED GOOD. WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20C TONIGHT. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING CLOUDS
WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES
IN THE GAP AREAS BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES
GIVEN THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

NEW WRF HAD THE COLD FRONT REACHING SE MT BY 00Z WED WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES POST-FRONTALLY. THIS WAS IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND CURRENT FORECAST. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT
THE MOMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH READINGS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WAS BEING
PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS SITTING JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL GENERATE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH NOW...AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS LESS...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOKS BETTER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WAS MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND THE
GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO IT
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. 850-700MB WINDS WERE NOW PROGGED AT 35KTS...SO BUMPED
WINDS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS MUCH OVER 40 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OUT WEST. THE GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONGER
WINDS IN THE HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS WERE
STILL NOT PROJECTED THAT HIGH...ONLY 35KTS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO REFLECT SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH.

HUMIDIITIES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HUMIDITIES MIGHT ACTUALLY
SLIDE JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN TO KEEP
A CHECK ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS HOWEVER.

THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT COOL
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE BUT
STILL MAX OUT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL
BE VOID OF SHOWER CHANCES AS THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...SO BUMPED WINDS UP. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST...OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO BUCKLE AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH JET AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BOTH DAYS
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING OUR AREA DRY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INLAND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE SO WINDS WILL JUST BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 045/065 043/071 048/069 043/071 044/060 037/055
    02/W    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
LVM 041/069 040/061 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/058 034/053
    03/W    50/N    00/N    00/B    11/U    22/W    21/B
HDN 042/079 043/067 038/071 043/071 039/072 039/062 035/057
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 041/078 045/065 038/071 044/069 041/069 041/062 035/054
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B
4BQ 042/081 044/065 037/070 042/071 040/071 042/062 035/054
    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B
BHK 038/078 044/062 036/068 041/067 038/066 039/059 033/049
    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 038/080 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/063 032/055
    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202037
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
237 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT
THE MOMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH READINGS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WAS BEING
PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS SITTING JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL GENERATE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH NOW...AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS LESS...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOKS BETTER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WAS MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND THE
GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO IT
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. 850-700MB WINDS WERE NOW PROGGED AT 35KTS...SO BUMPED
WINDS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS MUCH OVER 40 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OUT WEST. THE GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONGER
WINDS IN THE HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS WERE
STILL NOT PROJECTED THAT HIGH...ONLY 35KTS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO REFLECT SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH.

HUMIDIITIES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HUMIDITIES MIGHT ACTUALLY
SLIDE JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN TO KEEP
A CHECK ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS HOWEVER.

THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT COOL
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE BUT
STILL MAX OUT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL
BE VOID OF SHOWER CHANCES AS THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...SO BUMPED WINDS UP. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST...OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO BUCKLE AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH JET AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BOTH DAYS
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING OUR AREA DRY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INLAND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE SO WINDS WILL JUST BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 045/065 043/071 048/069 043/071 044/060 037/055
    02/W    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
LVM 041/069 040/061 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/058 034/053
    03/W    50/N    00/N    00/B    11/U    22/W    21/B
HDN 042/079 043/067 038/071 043/071 039/072 039/062 035/057
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 041/078 045/065 038/071 044/069 041/069 041/062 035/054
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B
4BQ 042/081 044/065 037/070 042/071 040/071 042/062 035/054
    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B
BHK 038/078 044/062 036/068 041/067 038/066 039/059 033/049
    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 038/080 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/063 032/055
    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202037
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
237 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT
THE MOMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH READINGS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WAS BEING
PUSHED EAST BY AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE
WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS SITTING JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN ZONES AND INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY EVENING. THIS...ALONG WITH AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WILL GENERATE ASCENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING FARTHER NORTH NOW...AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS LESS...BUT THE CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOKS BETTER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WAS MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND THE
GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO IT
APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. 850-700MB WINDS WERE NOW PROGGED AT 35KTS...SO BUMPED
WINDS UP TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS MUCH OVER 40 MPH
WITH THE EXCEPTION OUT WEST. THE GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR STRONGER
WINDS IN THE HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. 700MB WINDS WERE
STILL NOT PROJECTED THAT HIGH...ONLY 35KTS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO REFLECT SOME GUSTS TO 45MPH.

HUMIDIITIES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HUMIDITIES MIGHT ACTUALLY
SLIDE JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL ZONES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RECOVER WELL ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN TO KEEP
A CHECK ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS HOWEVER.

THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT COOL
DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE BUT
STILL MAX OUT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL
BE VOID OF SHOWER CHANCES AS THE FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT A SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE
INCREASING WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...SO BUMPED WINDS UP. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

ALTHOUGH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST...OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THURSDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW DIGS A BIT SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
THE FLOW TO BUCKLE AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH JET AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BOTH DAYS
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING OUR AREA DRY ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE INLAND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE SO WINDS WILL JUST BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A GUSTY DAY.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL SUNDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 045/065 043/071 048/069 043/071 044/060 037/055
    02/W    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
LVM 041/069 040/061 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/058 034/053
    03/W    50/N    00/N    00/B    11/U    22/W    21/B
HDN 042/079 043/067 038/071 043/071 039/072 039/062 035/057
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 041/078 045/065 038/071 044/069 041/069 041/062 035/054
    00/U    32/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B
4BQ 042/081 044/065 037/070 042/071 040/071 042/062 035/054
    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B
BHK 038/078 044/062 036/068 041/067 038/066 039/059 033/049
    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    22/W
SHR 038/080 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/063 032/055
    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201523
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY
PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVE AGREEMENT AND A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVELY
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPACT WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY LIFT OUT OF
IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID
RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND APPARENT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST...BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG...AS 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED AT AROUND 30KTS. HOWEVER...FAVORED LOCATIONS...HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON...WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TIMING OF THE
DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD LEND ITSELF WELL TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 IN SOME
AREAS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH/EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER TIME WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BECOMING DOMINANT. HAVE
RAISED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND SHOULD SEE GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAY BUT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY MINOR ISSUE COULD BE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT ON FRIDAY...A RESULT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AS WE STAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FAIRLY HIGH
HEIGHTS.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER NOW IN SUGGESTING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY...AS TROF OFF THE COAST IS KICKED
THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INCLUDING
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PACIFIC FLOW WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND DROPPED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/077 046/066 044/071 048/069 043/071 044/061
    0/U 01/B    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 075 041/070 040/062 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/059
    0/U 03/W    50/B    00/N    00/B    01/U    22/W
HDN 078 042/077 043/066 039/071 043/071 039/072 039/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 076 041/076 045/066 041/071 044/069 041/069 041/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 077 042/079 045/064 038/070 042/071 040/071 042/063
    0/U 00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 073 038/076 044/063 037/068 041/067 038/066 039/060
    0/U 00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
SHR 079 038/079 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/064
    0/U 00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201523
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY
PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVE AGREEMENT AND A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVELY
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPACT WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY LIFT OUT OF
IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID
RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND APPARENT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST...BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG...AS 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED AT AROUND 30KTS. HOWEVER...FAVORED LOCATIONS...HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON...WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TIMING OF THE
DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD LEND ITSELF WELL TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 IN SOME
AREAS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH/EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER TIME WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BECOMING DOMINANT. HAVE
RAISED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND SHOULD SEE GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAY BUT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY MINOR ISSUE COULD BE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT ON FRIDAY...A RESULT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AS WE STAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FAIRLY HIGH
HEIGHTS.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER NOW IN SUGGESTING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY...AS TROF OFF THE COAST IS KICKED
THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INCLUDING
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PACIFIC FLOW WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND DROPPED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/077 046/066 044/071 048/069 043/071 044/061
    0/U 01/B    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 075 041/070 040/062 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/059
    0/U 03/W    50/B    00/N    00/B    01/U    22/W
HDN 078 042/077 043/066 039/071 043/071 039/072 039/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 076 041/076 045/066 041/071 044/069 041/069 041/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 077 042/079 045/064 038/070 042/071 040/071 042/063
    0/U 00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 073 038/076 044/063 037/068 041/067 038/066 039/060
    0/U 00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
SHR 079 038/079 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/064
    0/U 00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200839
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
239 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVE AGREEMENT AND A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVELY
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPACT WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY LIFT OUT OF
IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID
RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND APPARENT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST...BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG...AS 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED AT AROUND 30KTS. HOWEVER...FAVORED LOCATIONS...HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON...WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TIMING OF THE
DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD LEND ITSELF WELL TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 IN SOME
AREAS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH/EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER TIME WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BECOMING DOMINANT. HAVE
RAISED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND SHOULD SEE GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAY BUT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY MINOR ISSUE COULD BE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT ON FRIDAY...A RESULT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AS WE STAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FAIRLY HIGH
HEIGHTS.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER NOW IN SUGGESTING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY...AS TROF OFF THE COAST IS KICKED
THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INCLUDING
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PACIFIC FLOW WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND DROPPED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/077 046/066 044/071 048/069 043/071 044/061
    0/U 01/B    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 075 041/070 040/062 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/059
    0/U 03/W    50/B    00/N    00/B    01/U    22/W
HDN 078 042/077 043/066 039/071 043/071 039/072 039/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 076 041/076 045/066 041/071 044/069 041/069 041/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 077 042/079 045/064 038/070 042/071 040/071 042/063
    0/U 00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 073 038/076 044/063 037/068 041/067 038/066 039/060
    0/U 00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
SHR 079 038/079 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/064
    0/U 00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200839
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
239 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVE AGREEMENT AND A STRONGER AND
MORE DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BUT VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. RELATIVELY
GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER. INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL IMPACT WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY LIFT OUT OF
IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...COMBINING
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID
RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND APPARENT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST...BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG...AS 850MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED AT AROUND 30KTS. HOWEVER...FAVORED LOCATIONS...HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON...WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TIMING OF THE
DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY SHOULD LEND ITSELF WELL TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 IN SOME
AREAS. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

TUESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH/EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRYING WILL OCCUR OVER TIME WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING BECOMING DOMINANT. HAVE
RAISED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS A BIT AND SHOULD SEE GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20 KTS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
TUESDAY BUT WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY MINOR ISSUE COULD BE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT ON FRIDAY...A RESULT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER AS WE STAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND FAIRLY HIGH
HEIGHTS.

MODELS COMING TOGETHER NOW IN SUGGESTING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY...AS TROF OFF THE COAST IS KICKED
THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY ENERGY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INCLUDING
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PACIFIC FLOW WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND DROPPED
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 047/077 046/066 044/071 048/069 043/071 044/061
    0/U 01/B    41/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 075 041/070 040/062 040/068 044/067 042/069 042/059
    0/U 03/W    50/B    00/N    00/B    01/U    22/W
HDN 078 042/077 043/066 039/071 043/071 039/072 039/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 076 041/076 045/066 041/071 044/069 041/069 041/063
    0/U 00/U    32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
4BQ 077 042/079 045/064 038/070 042/071 040/071 042/063
    0/U 00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
BHK 073 038/076 044/063 037/068 041/067 038/066 039/060
    0/U 00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B
SHR 079 038/079 040/065 034/072 039/073 037/073 038/064
    0/U 00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200547
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1147 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

TEMPS ARE COOLING OFF QUICKLY AGAIN TONIGHT. MADE A QUICK UPDATE
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL LOCATION AROUND THE THE
REGION WHERE READING WERE EITHER VERY CLOSE TO OR COLDER THAN
INHERITED FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT...INCLUDING BUT LIMITED TO
KSHR...KBHK...AND KLVM. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. 850MB WINDS WERE PROGGED AT 30KTS...SO ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY..THEY SHOULD NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY
STRONG. LOCATIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WILL
LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT 700MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30KTS WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
LESS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DO DIVERGE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A TREASURE TO BIG HORN COUNTY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.

WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STRONGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE READINGS COOL CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. RICHMOND


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/076 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/071 044/070 045/063
    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 037/074 047/069 040/063 040/068 044/068 043/069 043/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    10/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 041/077 044/076 043/067 040/072 043/072 041/072 040/065
    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 042/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/071 041/069 042/065
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 042/076 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071 043/066
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 036/072 042/075 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066 040/064
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 034/078 041/078 040/066 035/071 039/073 038/073 039/068
    00/U    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200547
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1147 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

TEMPS ARE COOLING OFF QUICKLY AGAIN TONIGHT. MADE A QUICK UPDATE
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL LOCATION AROUND THE THE
REGION WHERE READING WERE EITHER VERY CLOSE TO OR COLDER THAN
INHERITED FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT...INCLUDING BUT LIMITED TO
KSHR...KBHK...AND KLVM. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. 850MB WINDS WERE PROGGED AT 30KTS...SO ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY..THEY SHOULD NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY
STRONG. LOCATIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WILL
LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT 700MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30KTS WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
LESS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DO DIVERGE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A TREASURE TO BIG HORN COUNTY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.

WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STRONGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE READINGS COOL CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. RICHMOND


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/076 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/071 044/070 045/063
    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 037/074 047/069 040/063 040/068 044/068 043/069 043/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    10/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 041/077 044/076 043/067 040/072 043/072 041/072 040/065
    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 042/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/071 041/069 042/065
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 042/076 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071 043/066
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 036/072 042/075 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066 040/064
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 034/078 041/078 040/066 035/071 039/073 038/073 039/068
    00/U    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200232
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE WAS PLANNED THIS
EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND IR SATELLITE HAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER NE AND FAR NW
MT...ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO MODERATE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LEE TROUGHING WAS DEVELOPING OVER MT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. GRADIENT DID NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG GAP FLOW AND TEMPERATURES IN THE PARK WILL NOT BE THAT
LOW...SO GAP WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG. EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BASED ON THE ABOVE FACTORS...AND
GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST REFLECTED THIS IDEA. SKY COVER AND
WINDS ALSO LOOKED REASONABLE.

EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON MON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SW AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. 850MB WINDS WERE PROGGED AT 30KTS...SO ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY..THEY SHOULD NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY
STRONG. LOCATIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WILL
LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT 700MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30KTS WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
LESS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DO DIVERGE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A TREASURE TO BIG HORN COUNTY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.

WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STRONGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE READINGS COOL CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. RICHMOND


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/076 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/071 044/070 045/063
    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 041/074 047/069 040/063 040/068 044/068 043/069 043/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    10/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 041/077 044/076 043/067 040/072 043/072 041/072 040/065
    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 042/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/071 041/069 042/065
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 043/076 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071 043/066
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 039/072 042/075 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066 040/064
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 039/078 041/078 040/066 035/071 039/073 038/073 039/068
    00/U    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities