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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 182132
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
332 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
AND ISOLATED STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MID EVENING HOURS.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S F BEHIND THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND
THUS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 500-1000 J/KG IN SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MT PER RAP-BASED SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA. HEIGHT FALLS
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SEVERAL STORMS FROM THE ID PANHANDLE TO AROUND
LIVINGSTON AS OF 21 UTC. WE EXPECT FURTHER EXPANSION OF THAT STORM
ACTIVITY AS IT PROPAGATES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND SO WE
ARE CARRYING LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL
WY THIS EVENING. RECENT HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO MATCH THIS IDEA AND SO
WE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTIONS TO BUILD THE EVENING FORECAST. SOME
RISK OF STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS EXISTS WITH 0-6-KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. WELL-ORGANIZED...PERSISTENT CELLS WITH 50
DBZ HEIGHTS OVER 25 THOUSAND FEET AGL AND/OR BASE VELOCITIES OF 50
KT OR BETTER AT HEIGHTS UNDER 2000 FT AGL MAY NEED SEVERE THUNDER-
STORM WARNINGS...THOUGH WE NEED TO STRESS THAT WILL BE AN ISOLATED
OCCURRENCE AT MOST. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS WILL EXIST
OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TOO...BUT MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN MT.

A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FRI AND BY SAT HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE RISING STEADILY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRY FORECAST IN MOST AREAS FRI EXCEPT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AS NONE OF
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SIMULATED ANY PRECIPITATION AND SOUNDINGS FROM
THOSE MODELS SHOWED STABLE PROFILES WITH A MID-LEVEL INVERSION. WE
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80 F FRI IN A WELL-MIXED AIR MASS AND IN THE 70S
F SAT WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN A MORE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

RELATIVELY WARM...LOW-KEY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND WE ACCORDINGLY LEANED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
12 UTC GUIDANCE TO BUILD THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATABASE. WE DO HAVE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PLAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN MT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN RESPECT TO POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ACROSS WY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING A BIT NORTH WITH THAT FEATURE AND AN IN-HOUSE SET OF MOS-
BASED POP DATA SUPPORTED LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE
IT WILL BE UNDERCUTTING MEAN RIDGING ALOFT WHICH ITSELF LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME AS A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. OBSCURATION OVER AREA MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/080 052/075 049/076 053/075 054/077 054/078 054/079
    61/B    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    12/T
LVM 051/078 043/077 043/076 047/077 049/078 048/079 049/079
    61/N    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    21/B    22/T
HDN 058/082 050/077 045/078 052/078 052/078 052/080 052/081
    61/B    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    12/T
MLS 061/082 051/075 045/076 052/078 054/076 053/079 053/081
    42/T    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    21/U    11/B
4BQ 061/082 051/076 046/076 053/076 054/075 052/079 052/082
    42/T    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 060/080 049/074 041/073 047/076 051/072 049/076 050/078
    32/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    21/U    11/B
SHR 058/080 048/076 045/077 051/073 049/075 049/078 050/080
    62/T    20/U    00/U    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 182132
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
332 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
AND ISOLATED STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MID EVENING HOURS.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S F BEHIND THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND
THUS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 500-1000 J/KG IN SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MT PER RAP-BASED SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA. HEIGHT FALLS
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SEVERAL STORMS FROM THE ID PANHANDLE TO AROUND
LIVINGSTON AS OF 21 UTC. WE EXPECT FURTHER EXPANSION OF THAT STORM
ACTIVITY AS IT PROPAGATES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND SO WE
ARE CARRYING LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL
WY THIS EVENING. RECENT HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO MATCH THIS IDEA AND SO
WE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTIONS TO BUILD THE EVENING FORECAST. SOME
RISK OF STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS EXISTS WITH 0-6-KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. WELL-ORGANIZED...PERSISTENT CELLS WITH 50
DBZ HEIGHTS OVER 25 THOUSAND FEET AGL AND/OR BASE VELOCITIES OF 50
KT OR BETTER AT HEIGHTS UNDER 2000 FT AGL MAY NEED SEVERE THUNDER-
STORM WARNINGS...THOUGH WE NEED TO STRESS THAT WILL BE AN ISOLATED
OCCURRENCE AT MOST. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS WILL EXIST
OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TOO...BUT MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN MT.

A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER FRI AND BY SAT HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE RISING STEADILY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRY FORECAST IN MOST AREAS FRI EXCEPT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT IN THE MORNING AS NONE OF
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SIMULATED ANY PRECIPITATION AND SOUNDINGS FROM
THOSE MODELS SHOWED STABLE PROFILES WITH A MID-LEVEL INVERSION. WE
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80 F FRI IN A WELL-MIXED AIR MASS AND IN THE 70S
F SAT WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN A MORE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

RELATIVELY WARM...LOW-KEY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND WE ACCORDINGLY LEANED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
12 UTC GUIDANCE TO BUILD THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATABASE. WE DO HAVE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PLAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN MT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN RESPECT TO POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ACROSS WY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING A BIT NORTH WITH THAT FEATURE AND AN IN-HOUSE SET OF MOS-
BASED POP DATA SUPPORTED LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE
IT WILL BE UNDERCUTTING MEAN RIDGING ALOFT WHICH ITSELF LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME AS A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. OBSCURATION OVER AREA MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/080 052/075 049/076 053/075 054/077 054/078 054/079
    61/B    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    12/T
LVM 051/078 043/077 043/076 047/077 049/078 048/079 049/079
    61/N    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    21/B    22/T
HDN 058/082 050/077 045/078 052/078 052/078 052/080 052/081
    61/B    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    12/T
MLS 061/082 051/075 045/076 052/078 054/076 053/079 053/081
    42/T    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    21/U    11/B
4BQ 061/082 051/076 046/076 053/076 054/075 052/079 052/082
    42/T    10/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 060/080 049/074 041/073 047/076 051/072 049/076 050/078
    32/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    21/U    11/B
SHR 058/080 048/076 045/077 051/073 049/075 049/078 050/080
    62/T    20/U    00/U    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 181554
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

WE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TODAY WHILE INCREASING THE
POPS SOMEWHAT IN MANY AREAS IN RESPECT TO THE SHIELD OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS
MORNING. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES TOWARD MILES CITY...BUT RADAR TRENDS ARE ENOUGH FOR US
TO INCREASE POPS THAT DIRECTION AFTER 18 UTC TOO. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN THE ID PANHANDLE AND SO
WE DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH LOWERING HIGHS RIGHT NOW...BUT
IF CLOUDS LINGER TOO LONG THEN OUR FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM LIVINGSTON TOWARD BILLINGS. WE
WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON BECAUSE THE CHANCE OF
ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WE ATTAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...EXITING
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE
AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE THAT LIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALREADY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FOR AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WESTWARD. BEST UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DECENT CAPES DEVELOP FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LINGERED SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL
TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PRE-FRONTAL MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INTO E/SE MONTANA WHERE
RECORDS IN THE MID 90S WILL BE APPROACHED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND SYSTEM...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS FELL OUT OF AGREEMENT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN. ALSO NOTED THAT THE GFS
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED INCREASING SPREAD BEGINNING ON MON AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DURING CERTAIN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A DRY RIDGE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL. THINGS START TO FALL APART ON MON WHEN AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING PRECIPITATION N INTO
MT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OVER WY. WENT WITH A
MODEL COMPROMISE AND HAD SOME MOUNTAIN POPS. ON TUE...THE ECMWF
BROUGHT THE LOW INTO E MT WHILE THE LOW BECAME DIFFUSE ON THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS WETTER THAN THE GFS. THUS WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE WITH POPS ACROSS THE S. BOTH MODELS THEN HAD A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FOR WED THROUGH THU BUT HANDLED THE
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. THIS WAS A PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MODELS CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN-TO-RUN. KEPT WED DRY FOR
NOW AND SPREAD POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND CRAZYS
TODAY WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NE BIG HORNS TODAY AND
WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/080 051/076 051/074 052/074 053/076 054/076
    5/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 083 052/078 044/077 044/077 044/075 047/077 048/076
    5/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    11/U
HDN 088 057/082 050/078 048/077 053/076 050/078 053/079
    4/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 088 059/082 051/076 047/076 050/076 051/076 055/077
    4/T 42/T    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 092 059/082 050/077 047/075 051/075 051/075 052/076
    1/B 33/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 057/081 049/075 044/072 045/072 047/073 051/076
    2/T 33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 091 056/079 048/076 046/075 049/073 046/074 049/076
    2/T 43/T    20/U    00/U    22/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 181554
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

WE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TODAY WHILE INCREASING THE
POPS SOMEWHAT IN MANY AREAS IN RESPECT TO THE SHIELD OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS
MORNING. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES TOWARD MILES CITY...BUT RADAR TRENDS ARE ENOUGH FOR US
TO INCREASE POPS THAT DIRECTION AFTER 18 UTC TOO. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN THE ID PANHANDLE AND SO
WE DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH LOWERING HIGHS RIGHT NOW...BUT
IF CLOUDS LINGER TOO LONG THEN OUR FORECAST IS STILL TOO WARM OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM LIVINGSTON TOWARD BILLINGS. WE
WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON BECAUSE THE CHANCE OF
ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WE ATTAIN.
SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...EXITING
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE
AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE THAT LIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALREADY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FOR AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WESTWARD. BEST UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DECENT CAPES DEVELOP FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LINGERED SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL
TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PRE-FRONTAL MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INTO E/SE MONTANA WHERE
RECORDS IN THE MID 90S WILL BE APPROACHED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND SYSTEM...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS FELL OUT OF AGREEMENT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN. ALSO NOTED THAT THE GFS
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED INCREASING SPREAD BEGINNING ON MON AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DURING CERTAIN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A DRY RIDGE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL. THINGS START TO FALL APART ON MON WHEN AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING PRECIPITATION N INTO
MT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OVER WY. WENT WITH A
MODEL COMPROMISE AND HAD SOME MOUNTAIN POPS. ON TUE...THE ECMWF
BROUGHT THE LOW INTO E MT WHILE THE LOW BECAME DIFFUSE ON THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS WETTER THAN THE GFS. THUS WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE WITH POPS ACROSS THE S. BOTH MODELS THEN HAD A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FOR WED THROUGH THU BUT HANDLED THE
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. THIS WAS A PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MODELS CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN-TO-RUN. KEPT WED DRY FOR
NOW AND SPREAD POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND CRAZYS
TODAY WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NE BIG HORNS TODAY AND
WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/080 051/076 051/074 052/074 053/076 054/076
    5/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 083 052/078 044/077 044/077 044/075 047/077 048/076
    5/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    11/U
HDN 088 057/082 050/078 048/077 053/076 050/078 053/079
    4/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 088 059/082 051/076 047/076 050/076 051/076 055/077
    4/T 42/T    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 092 059/082 050/077 047/075 051/075 051/075 052/076
    1/B 33/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 057/081 049/075 044/072 045/072 047/073 051/076
    2/T 33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 091 056/079 048/076 046/075 049/073 046/074 049/076
    2/T 43/T    20/U    00/U    22/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180902
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
302 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...EXITING
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE
AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE THAT LIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALREADY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FOR AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WESTWARD. BEST UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DECENT CAPES DEVELOP FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LINGERED SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL
TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PRE-FRONTAL MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INTO E/SE MONTANA WHERE
RECORDS IN THE MID 90S WILL BE APPROACHED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND SYSTEM...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS FELL OUT OF AGREEMENT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN. ALSO NOTED THAT THE GFS
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED INCREASING SPREAD BEGINNING ON MON AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DURING CERTAIN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A DRY RIDGE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL. THINGS START TO FALL APART ON MON WHEN AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING PRECIPITATION N INTO
MT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OVER WY. WENT WITH A
MODEL COMPROMISE AND HAD SOME MOUNTAIN POPS. ON TUE...THE ECMWF
BROUGHT THE LOW INTO E MT WHILE THE LOW BECAME DIFFUSE ON THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS WETTER THAN THE GFS. THUS WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE WITH POPS ACROSS THE S. BOTH MODELS THEN HAD A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FOR WED THROUGH THU BUT HANDLED THE
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. THIS WAS A PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MODELS CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN-TO-RUN. KEPT WED DRY FOR
NOW AND SPREAD POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND CRAZYS
THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NE BIG HORNS.
EXPECT AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/080 051/076 051/074 052/074 053/076 054/076
    3/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 085 052/078 044/077 044/077 044/075 047/077 048/076
    4/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    11/U
HDN 090 057/082 050/078 048/077 053/076 050/078 053/079
    3/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 091 059/082 051/076 047/076 050/076 051/076 055/077
    2/T 42/T    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 094 059/082 050/077 047/075 051/075 051/075 052/076
    1/B 33/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 090 057/081 049/075 044/072 045/072 047/073 051/076
    2/T 33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 091 056/079 048/076 046/075 049/073 046/074 049/076
    2/T 43/T    20/U    00/U    22/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180902
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
302 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...EXITING
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE
AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THERE IS AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE THAT LIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALREADY THIS MORNING THAT COULD
RESULT IN SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION FOR AREAS FROM BILLINGS
WESTWARD. BEST UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
DECENT CAPES DEVELOP FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LINGERED SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL
TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...PRE-FRONTAL MIXING TODAY WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S INTO E/SE MONTANA WHERE
RECORDS IN THE MID 90S WILL BE APPROACHED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND SYSTEM...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS FELL OUT OF AGREEMENT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN. ALSO NOTED THAT THE GFS
SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED INCREASING SPREAD BEGINNING ON MON AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DURING CERTAIN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A DRY RIDGE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL. THINGS START TO FALL APART ON MON WHEN AN UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING PRECIPITATION N INTO
MT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OVER WY. WENT WITH A
MODEL COMPROMISE AND HAD SOME MOUNTAIN POPS. ON TUE...THE ECMWF
BROUGHT THE LOW INTO E MT WHILE THE LOW BECAME DIFFUSE ON THE GFS.
AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF WAS WETTER THAN THE GFS. THUS WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE WITH POPS ACROSS THE S. BOTH MODELS THEN HAD A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FOR WED THROUGH THU BUT HANDLED THE
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. THIS WAS A PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MODELS CHANGING THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM RUN-TO-RUN. KEPT WED DRY FOR
NOW AND SPREAD POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND CRAZYS
THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NE BIG HORNS.
EXPECT AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/080 051/076 051/074 052/074 053/076 054/076
    3/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 085 052/078 044/077 044/077 044/075 047/077 048/076
    4/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    11/U
HDN 090 057/082 050/078 048/077 053/076 050/078 053/079
    3/T 42/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 091 059/082 051/076 047/076 050/076 051/076 055/077
    2/T 42/T    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 094 059/082 050/077 047/075 051/075 051/075 052/076
    1/B 33/T    10/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 090 057/081 049/075 044/072 045/072 047/073 051/076
    2/T 33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 091 056/079 048/076 046/075 049/073 046/074 049/076
    2/T 43/T    20/U    00/U    22/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180221
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
821 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELL WHICH
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL FROM REED POINT TO NORTH OF COLUMBUS HAS
WEAKENED. ADJUSTED POPS TO CARRY THIS LINE EASTWARD THE REST OF
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN EXTENT OF LINE CLOSER TO DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

A LINE OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR / IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
REDUCED VIS IN HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. GUSTY WINDS TO 30KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    13/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    22/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180221
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
821 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELL WHICH
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL FROM REED POINT TO NORTH OF COLUMBUS HAS
WEAKENED. ADJUSTED POPS TO CARRY THIS LINE EASTWARD THE REST OF
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN EXTENT OF LINE CLOSER TO DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

A LINE OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR / IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
REDUCED VIS IN HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. GUSTY WINDS TO 30KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    13/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    22/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180213
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
813 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELL WHICH
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL FROM REED POINT TO NORTH OF COLUMBUS HAS
WEAKENED. ADJUSTED POPS TO CARRY THIS LINE EASTWARD THE REST OF
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN EXTENT OF LINE CLOSER TO DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DISTURBANCE...AND WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
A FEW CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG A ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40KTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    13/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    22/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180213
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
813 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER CELL WHICH
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL FROM REED POINT TO NORTH OF COLUMBUS HAS
WEAKENED. ADJUSTED POPS TO CARRY THIS LINE EASTWARD THE REST OF
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN EXTENT OF LINE CLOSER TO DEEPEST INSTABILITY.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DISTURBANCE...AND WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
A FEW CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG A ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40KTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    13/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    22/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    22/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 172106
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
306 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY THURSDAY. PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ARE ENCOUNTERING MID LEVEL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A BROAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. KEPT SCHC POPS
IN FOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE TERRAIN WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LEFT AREAS TO THE EAST DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH 50S PREVALENT AND A FEW LOWER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S WEST
AND INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES OVER MONTANA WITH
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE
PARENT TROF SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SPLIT WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CAPE VALUES
TO WORK WITH. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FROM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS REINFORCING COOL AIR LEAKS
IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND NO SIGNIFICANT COLD PUNCH SHOWS UP IN THE MODELS OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A VERY NICE WEEKEND AHEAD AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXITING OF THE UPPER TROF AND
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GETTING CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DUCTING UNDER THE RIDGE
AND DRIFTING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THIS
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE LINE. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT COULD STILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY HAVE LOW POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO COVER THIS AND WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY OUT
THAT FAR ELECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE INCREASES IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FORWARD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...PUSHING A
STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD BE A WET PATTERN FOR
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITH MODELS TRENDING IN A MORE CONSISTENT
DIRECTION EXPECT LATE PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DISTURBANCE...AND WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
A FEW CELLS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG A ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND LINE BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40KTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/087 058/080 051/076 051/074 049/074 051/076 053/076
    12/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 054/085 051/078 044/077 044/077 043/075 045/077 048/076
    23/T    42/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 054/090 056/082 050/078 048/077 047/076 049/078 050/079
    12/T    42/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
MLS 056/091 058/082 051/076 047/076 047/076 050/076 052/077
    12/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 055/094 058/082 050/077 047/075 045/075 048/075 049/076
    11/B    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 052/090 056/081 049/075 044/072 043/072 045/073 048/076
    12/T    32/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 056/091 055/079 048/076 046/075 044/073 045/074 047/076
    12/T    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 171454
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN ZONES...DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AS THE DISTURBANCE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL A NICE
LATE SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE
THURSDAY ARRIVAL WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL
EASILY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. FOR
TODAY...FORECAST 850 AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
ABOUT +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY OF +2SD DAYS. GIVEN THAT WE
OVER ACHIEVED ON TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER AROUND...HAVE NO PROBLEM RAISING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION IN PLACE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM MILES CITY TO BAKER EXPERIENCING THEIR WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK AS LOW- LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FINALLY GETS SHUNTED
OFF INTO THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL TRICKLE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...BUT
THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL LAGS WELL BACK INTO WESTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN PROBLEM REMAINS THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
LEAVES US WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. DESPITE THE
WEAK FORCING...PW VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...APPROACHING 1 INCH...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ANY ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT DID RETURN TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. SOME UNCERTAINTIES DEVELOP INTO NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST DRIFTS UNDER THIS
RIDGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...ADVERTISED TO LIFT INTO
WYOMING FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALWAYS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTYWITH
TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW. CURRENT MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION INTO WY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY HAVING A MINOR AFFECT ON OUR MOUNTAINS. HAVE
INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT THEN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 059/084 057/078 050/074 048/076 047/078 052/077
    2/W 12/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 090 053/083 050/076 041/075 042/077 042/078 045/079
    2/T 13/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 093 054/087 055/080 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    2/W 11/B    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 088 056/089 058/080 050/075 046/076 047/078 048/078
    2/W 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 090 055/091 058/079 050/074 046/076 046/078 047/078
    1/B 11/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 083 052/088 056/078 049/074 043/073 044/076 045/075
    2/W 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 088 053/089 054/077 046/073 043/075 041/078 043/078
    2/W 12/T    24/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 171454
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN ZONES...DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AS THE DISTURBANCE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL A NICE
LATE SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE
THURSDAY ARRIVAL WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL
EASILY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. FOR
TODAY...FORECAST 850 AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
ABOUT +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY OF +2SD DAYS. GIVEN THAT WE
OVER ACHIEVED ON TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER AROUND...HAVE NO PROBLEM RAISING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION IN PLACE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM MILES CITY TO BAKER EXPERIENCING THEIR WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK AS LOW- LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FINALLY GETS SHUNTED
OFF INTO THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL TRICKLE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...BUT
THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL LAGS WELL BACK INTO WESTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN PROBLEM REMAINS THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
LEAVES US WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. DESPITE THE
WEAK FORCING...PW VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...APPROACHING 1 INCH...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ANY ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT DID RETURN TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. SOME UNCERTAINTIES DEVELOP INTO NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST DRIFTS UNDER THIS
RIDGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...ADVERTISED TO LIFT INTO
WYOMING FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALWAYS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTYWITH
TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW. CURRENT MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION INTO WY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY HAVING A MINOR AFFECT ON OUR MOUNTAINS. HAVE
INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT THEN AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.
FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 059/084 057/078 050/074 048/076 047/078 052/077
    2/W 12/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 090 053/083 050/076 041/075 042/077 042/078 045/079
    2/T 13/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 093 054/087 055/080 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    2/W 11/B    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 088 056/089 058/080 050/075 046/076 047/078 048/078
    2/W 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 090 055/091 058/079 050/074 046/076 046/078 047/078
    1/B 11/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 083 052/088 056/078 049/074 043/073 044/076 045/075
    2/W 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 088 053/089 054/077 046/073 043/075 041/078 043/078
    2/W 12/T    24/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170856
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL
EASILY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. FOR
TODAY...FORECAST 850 AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
ABOUT +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY OF +2SD DAYS. GIVEN THAT WE
OVERACHEIVED ON TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
AROUND...HAVE NO PROBLEM RAISING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION IN PLACE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM MILES CITY TO BAKER EXPERIENCING THEIR WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK AS LOW- LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FINALLY GETS SHUNTED
OFF INTO THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL TRICKLE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...BUT
THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL LAGS WELL BACK INTO WESTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN PROBLEM REMAINS THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
LEAVES US WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. DESPITE THE
WEAK FORCING...PW VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...APPROACHING 1 INCH...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ANY ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT DID RETURN TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. SOME UNCERTAINTIES DEVELOP INTO NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST DRIFTS UNDER THIS
RIDGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...ADVERTISED TO LIFT INTO
WYOMING FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALWAYS PLENTY OF UNCERTIANTY
WITH TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW. CURRENT
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION INTO WY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUEDAY...POSSIBLY HAVING A MINOR AFFECT ON OUR
MOUNTAINS. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT THEN AGAIN
BY WEDNESDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 059/084 057/078 050/074 048/076 047/078 052/077
    1/B 12/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 090 053/083 050/076 041/075 042/077 042/078 045/079
    2/T 13/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 093 054/087 055/080 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    1/B 11/B    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 088 056/089 058/080 050/075 046/076 047/078 048/078
    0/B 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 090 055/091 058/079 050/074 046/076 046/078 047/078
    0/B 11/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 083 052/088 056/078 049/074 043/073 044/076 045/075
    0/B 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 088 053/089 054/077 046/073 043/075 041/078 043/078
    1/B 12/T    24/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170856
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL
EASILY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. FOR
TODAY...FORECAST 850 AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
ABOUT +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY OF +2SD DAYS. GIVEN THAT WE
OVERACHEIVED ON TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
AROUND...HAVE NO PROBLEM RAISING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION IN PLACE.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS FROM MILES CITY TO BAKER EXPERIENCING THEIR WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK AS LOW- LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FINALLY GETS SHUNTED
OFF INTO THE DAKOTAS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL TRICKLE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...BUT
THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL LAGS WELL BACK INTO WESTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN PROBLEM REMAINS THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH
LEAVES US WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING TO WORK WITH. DESPITE THE
WEAK FORCING...PW VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...APPROACHING 1 INCH...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ANY ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE RAIN EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WITH A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT DID RETURN TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. SOME UNCERTAINTIES DEVELOP INTO NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST DRIFTS UNDER THIS
RIDGE INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...ADVERTISED TO LIFT INTO
WYOMING FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALWAYS PLENTY OF UNCERTIANTY
WITH TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS CUT OFF FROM MAIN FLOW. CURRENT
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION INTO WY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUEDAY...POSSIBLY HAVING A MINOR AFFECT ON OUR
MOUNTAINS. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT THEN AGAIN
BY WEDNESDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 059/084 057/078 050/074 048/076 047/078 052/077
    1/B 12/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 090 053/083 050/076 041/075 042/077 042/078 045/079
    2/T 13/T    33/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 093 054/087 055/080 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    1/B 11/B    33/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 088 056/089 058/080 050/075 046/076 047/078 048/078
    0/B 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 090 055/091 058/079 050/074 046/076 046/078 047/078
    0/B 11/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 083 052/088 056/078 049/074 043/073 044/076 045/075
    0/B 01/B    23/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 088 053/089 054/077 046/073 043/075 041/078 043/078
    1/B 12/T    24/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170210
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
810 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IT APPEARS
THAT THE ENERGY IMPACTING THE REGION IS SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND MAY RESULT IN A BIT LONGER PERIOD OF
MOUNTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INTRODUCED ISOLATED
POPS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO ADDED
SOME ISOLATED POPS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND INTO THE PARADISE VALLEY
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY CLOSE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  STILL EXPECT
CLEARING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...OVER THE AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN SOME AREAS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT
SNEAKS IN UNDER THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS WEST COAST RIDGE
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MONTANA FOR WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE ALL GRABBING ONTO A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW MODELS DRAG THIS ENERGY INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS KICK IT EAST.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IT WOULDN`T BE
A BIG PRECIPITATION MAKER BUT WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WATCH THIS ENERGY CLOSELY AND MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 058/085 058/076 050/074 048/077 047/078 052/077
    11/B    12/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 051/087 053/082 050/074 041/075 042/077 042/076 045/076
    22/T    23/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 051/086 053/088 056/078 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    01/B    11/B    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 051/085 056/088 058/078 050/075 046/078 047/078 048/078
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 051/086 055/090 058/077 050/074 046/078 046/078 047/078
    00/B    11/B    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 047/082 052/085 057/076 049/074 043/075 044/077 045/075
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 051/085 053/087 054/075 046/073 043/075 041/075 043/075
    11/B    11/B    24/T    30/U    01/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170210
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
810 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IT APPEARS
THAT THE ENERGY IMPACTING THE REGION IS SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND MAY RESULT IN A BIT LONGER PERIOD OF
MOUNTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INTRODUCED ISOLATED
POPS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO ADDED
SOME ISOLATED POPS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND INTO THE PARADISE VALLEY
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY CLOSE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  STILL EXPECT
CLEARING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...OVER THE AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN SOME AREAS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT
SNEAKS IN UNDER THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS WEST COAST RIDGE
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MONTANA FOR WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE ALL GRABBING ONTO A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW MODELS DRAG THIS ENERGY INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS KICK IT EAST.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IT WOULDN`T BE
A BIG PRECIPITATION MAKER BUT WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WATCH THIS ENERGY CLOSELY AND MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 058/085 058/076 050/074 048/077 047/078 052/077
    11/B    12/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 051/087 053/082 050/074 041/075 042/077 042/076 045/076
    22/T    23/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 051/086 053/088 056/078 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    01/B    11/B    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 051/085 056/088 058/078 050/075 046/078 047/078 048/078
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 051/086 055/090 058/077 050/074 046/078 046/078 047/078
    00/B    11/B    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 047/082 052/085 057/076 049/074 043/075 044/077 045/075
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 051/085 053/087 054/075 046/073 043/075 041/075 043/075
    11/B    11/B    24/T    30/U    01/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 162040
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
240 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...OVER THE AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN SOME AREAS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT
SNEAKS IN UNDER THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS WEST COAST RIDGE
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MONTANA FOR WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE ALL GRABBING ONTO A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW MODELS DRAG THIS ENERGY INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS KICK IT EAST.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IT WOULDN`T BE
A BIG PRECIPITATION MAKER BUT WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WATCH THIS ENERGY CLOSELY AND MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH
SUNSET. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS.
CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 058/085 058/076 050/074 048/077 047/078 052/077
    01/B    12/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 051/087 053/082 050/074 041/075 042/077 042/076 045/076
    12/T    23/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 051/086 053/088 056/078 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    01/B    11/B    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 051/085 056/088 058/078 050/075 046/078 047/078 048/078
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 051/086 055/090 058/077 050/074 046/078 046/078 047/078
    00/B    11/B    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 047/082 052/085 057/076 049/074 043/075 044/077 045/075
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 051/085 053/087 054/075 046/073 043/075 041/075 043/075
    11/B    11/B    24/T    30/U    01/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 162040
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
240 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO BRING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY A PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...OVER THE AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN SOME AREAS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. COLD FRONT
SNEAKS IN UNDER THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MID RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AS WEST COAST RIDGE
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MONTANA FOR WARMER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE ALL GRABBING ONTO A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
DRIFTS NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE FROM CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY. A FEW MODELS DRAG THIS ENERGY INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS KICK IT EAST.
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IT WOULDN`T BE
A BIG PRECIPITATION MAKER BUT WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. KEPT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WATCH THIS ENERGY CLOSELY AND MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG IT INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ISOLATED EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH
SUNSET. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS.
CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 058/085 058/076 050/074 048/077 047/078 052/077
    01/B    12/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
LVM 051/087 053/082 050/074 041/075 042/077 042/076 045/076
    12/T    23/T    33/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 051/086 053/088 056/078 049/076 047/078 046/079 048/078
    01/B    11/B    33/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
MLS 051/085 056/088 058/078 050/075 046/078 047/078 048/078
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
4BQ 051/086 055/090 058/077 050/074 046/078 046/078 047/078
    00/B    11/B    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
BHK 047/082 052/085 057/076 049/074 043/075 044/077 045/075
    00/B    02/T    23/T    20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 051/085 053/087 054/075 046/073 043/075 041/075 043/075
    11/B    11/B    24/T    30/U    01/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 161554
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER WEST AND CENTRAL AND BUMP
UP WINDS JUST A BIT. JET STREAM CRESTING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IS DRAGGING SOME MID
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED. RIGHT REAR JET DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED. THINK SOME AREAS MAY
MIX OUT ENOUGH TO INCREASE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP JUST A BIT FOR THIS. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
DECIDED TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE/MIXING WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING TO BREAK THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST LIKE MLS AND BHK WILL LIKELY HOLD THIS
INVERSION IN PLACE...AND BHK MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S.

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS...IT APPEARS MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME 20 POPS FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL FEATURES IN
THE EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAP INTO A BIT OF
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST US.
HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
BEST TIMEFRAME FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY WITH THIS OPEN WAVE. TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY...RIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH GRADUAL WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE NIL FROM SATURDAY ON. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 054/087 058/085 057/078 048/073 049/077 047/078
    0/B 01/B    12/T    44/T    20/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 086 050/088 053/082 050/078 042/073 042/077 042/076
    1/B 11/B    12/T    44/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 085 051/088 055/086 054/079 048/075 046/078 046/079
    0/B 00/B    01/B    43/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 081 050/087 056/087 056/078 050/076 048/078 047/078
    0/U 00/B    01/B    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 083 051/087 055/089 057/078 049/074 048/078 046/078
    0/B 00/B    01/B    23/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 076 047/083 052/085 055/078 048/073 045/075 044/077
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 083 051/086 053/087 054/077 045/072 042/075 041/075
    0/B 01/B    12/T    44/T    21/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 160848
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
248 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
DECIDED TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE/MIXING WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING TO BREAK THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST LIKE MLS AND BHK WILL LIKELY HOLD THIS
INVERSION IN PLACE...AND BHK MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S.

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS...IT APPEARS MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME 20 POPS FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL FEATURES IN
THE EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAP INTO A BIT OF
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST US.
HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
BEST TIMEFRAME FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY WITH THIS OPEN WAVE. TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY...RIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH GRADUAL WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE NIL FROM SATURDAY ON. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO TONIGHT. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 054/087 058/085 057/078 048/073 049/077 047/078
    0/U 01/B    12/T    44/T    20/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 086 050/088 053/082 050/078 042/073 042/077 042/076
    1/U 11/B    12/T    44/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 085 051/088 055/086 054/079 048/075 046/078 046/079
    0/U 00/B    01/B    43/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 081 050/087 056/087 056/078 050/076 048/078 047/078
    0/U 00/B    01/B    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 083 051/087 055/089 057/078 049/074 048/078 046/078
    0/U 00/B    01/B    23/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 076 047/083 052/085 055/078 048/073 045/075 044/077
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 083 051/086 053/087 054/077 045/072 042/075 041/075
    0/U 01/B    12/T    44/T    21/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 160848
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
248 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
DECIDED TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE/MIXING WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HELPING TO BREAK THROUGH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST LIKE MLS AND BHK WILL LIKELY HOLD THIS
INVERSION IN PLACE...AND BHK MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S.

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS...IT APPEARS MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME 20 POPS FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL FEATURES IN
THE EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAP INTO A BIT OF
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST US.
HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE
BEST TIMEFRAME FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY EVENING. STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY WITH THIS OPEN WAVE. TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY...RIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH GRADUAL WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE NIL FROM SATURDAY ON. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO TONIGHT. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 054/087 058/085 057/078 048/073 049/077 047/078
    0/U 01/B    12/T    44/T    20/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 086 050/088 053/082 050/078 042/073 042/077 042/076
    1/U 11/B    12/T    44/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 085 051/088 055/086 054/079 048/075 046/078 046/079
    0/U 00/B    01/B    43/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 081 050/087 056/087 056/078 050/076 048/078 047/078
    0/U 00/B    01/B    33/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 083 051/087 055/089 057/078 049/074 048/078 046/078
    0/U 00/B    01/B    23/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 076 047/083 052/085 055/078 048/073 045/075 044/077
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 083 051/086 053/087 054/077 045/072 042/075 041/075
    0/U 01/B    12/T    44/T    21/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 160254
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES
THIS EVENING...SO HAVE TRIMMED LOWS BACK BY 2-3 DEGREES. OTHER
THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IN REALLY
GOOD SHAPE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

AT THIS TIME...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE AREA. DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW BECOME NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ACROSS WEST ROUTES...FROM KBIL
WEST...OVERNIGHT. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/083 055/085 058/085 057/078 048/073 050/077 052/080
    00/U    00/B    12/T    33/T    30/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 040/084 049/086 051/082 050/078 042/073 045/077 046/078
    00/U    01/B    12/T    33/T    31/U    00/U    11/U
HDN 043/083 050/086 053/086 054/079 048/075 048/078 050/081
    00/U    00/B    02/T    33/T    31/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 042/081 052/086 056/087 056/078 050/076 050/078 052/080
    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/T    31/U    10/U    00/U
4BQ 042/082 050/087 054/089 057/078 049/074 049/078 052/080
    00/U    00/U    01/B    23/T    31/U    10/U    00/U
BHK 037/077 047/083 051/085 055/078 048/073 048/075 050/079
    00/U    00/U    11/B    23/T    31/U    11/U    00/U
SHR 040/083 049/085 052/084 054/077 045/072 045/075 048/077
    00/U    11/U    12/T    33/T    31/U    10/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 160254
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
854 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES
THIS EVENING...SO HAVE TRIMMED LOWS BACK BY 2-3 DEGREES. OTHER
THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IN REALLY
GOOD SHAPE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

AT THIS TIME...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FLATTENING THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE AREA. DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW BECOME NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ACROSS WEST ROUTES...FROM KBIL
WEST...OVERNIGHT. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/083 055/085 058/085 057/078 048/073 050/077 052/080
    00/U    00/B    12/T    33/T    30/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 040/084 049/086 051/082 050/078 042/073 045/077 046/078
    00/U    01/B    12/T    33/T    31/U    00/U    11/U
HDN 043/083 050/086 053/086 054/079 048/075 048/078 050/081
    00/U    00/B    02/T    33/T    31/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 042/081 052/086 056/087 056/078 050/076 050/078 052/080
    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/T    31/U    10/U    00/U
4BQ 042/082 050/087 054/089 057/078 049/074 049/078 052/080
    00/U    00/U    01/B    23/T    31/U    10/U    00/U
BHK 037/077 047/083 051/085 055/078 048/073 048/075 050/079
    00/U    00/U    11/B    23/T    31/U    11/U    00/U
SHR 040/083 049/085 052/084 054/077 045/072 045/075 048/077
    00/U    11/U    12/T    33/T    31/U    10/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
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