Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010310
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
910 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD ADVECTION HAS TAKEN OVER IN THE EAST AS UPPER CLOSED LOW
LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LOTS OF INSTABILITY YET IN
THIS NW FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THE SPLIT FLOW TROUGH AXIS YET
UPSTREAM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND KEPT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS ARE NEAR NORTH FACING
TERRAIN AROUND THE BIG HORNS AND ASHLAND DIVIDE. STILL LOOKS
COOLER TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH -22C 500MB
COLD POOL DRIFTING RIGHT OVER US. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW LIFTING THRU NORTHERN SD CONTINUES TO WRAP
SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR EAST. PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...MUCH GREATER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO THE
BLACK HILLS...BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL FOR THE MOST PART END IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
PACIFIC TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN MT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME
UNORGANIZED AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. PER THE NW SFC
AND MID LEVEL FLOW...FOCUS OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE IN OUR
SOUTHERN UPSLOPE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 700MB
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -4C SUGGEST SOME SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...PRIMARILY OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND BIG HORNS...
GREATEST ON NW ASPECTS.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...GREATEST OVER THE MTNS AS OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A DRYING AIRMASS.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE TROF ALOFT...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...
CLIPPER FROM NW CANADA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS. TIMING OF
FROPA HAS TRENDED FASTER SINCE YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ONLY
IN THE 50S WITH COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME DURING THE
MORNING...WITH A DROP IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
AFTER 18Z. THIS WILL BE A TRUE BURST OF FALL WITH COOL TEMPS AND
GUSTY N-NW WINDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF BUT WITH A LITTLE
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND FAIRLY LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB TEMPS WE COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH WET SNOW ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. KEEP IN MIND ANY PCPN WILL BE BRIEF. SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FOR A COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE ANOTHER
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...THOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST IN OUR
EAST. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
MILD AND DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS DID BRING SOME WEAK
ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT BAY.

LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT
WINDY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT IN THESE AREAS. AT
THIS TIME...THE FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS DID NOT LOOK
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL COMBINE TO MAKE SAT AND MON THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. GUSTY W TO NW
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WED. SHOWERS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED OVER THE REGION ON WED WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON WED.
ARTHUR/CHURCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/059 042/055 033/068 049/073 047/069 047/071 048/069
    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
LVM 039/056 035/058 030/068 042/071 040/067 041/070 044/069
    32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
HDN 043/061 039/057 030/069 045/074 046/070 044/071 047/070
    52/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
MLS 047/060 041/054 030/065 045/073 046/067 044/068 045/065
    52/W    02/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B    11/B
4BQ 044/060 039/056 030/065 044/072 047/067 043/069 045/066
    42/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U    11/B
BHK 045/059 038/053 030/058 039/068 042/062 041/064 040/061
    72/W    03/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B    11/B
SHR 044/057 035/056 028/067 041/071 044/067 040/070 043/066
    32/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010310
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
910 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD ADVECTION HAS TAKEN OVER IN THE EAST AS UPPER CLOSED LOW
LIFTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. LOTS OF INSTABILITY YET IN
THIS NW FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH THE SPLIT FLOW TROUGH AXIS YET
UPSTREAM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND KEPT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS ARE NEAR NORTH FACING
TERRAIN AROUND THE BIG HORNS AND ASHLAND DIVIDE. STILL LOOKS
COOLER TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH -22C 500MB
COLD POOL DRIFTING RIGHT OVER US. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW LIFTING THRU NORTHERN SD CONTINUES TO WRAP
SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR EAST. PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...MUCH GREATER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO THE
BLACK HILLS...BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL FOR THE MOST PART END IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
PACIFIC TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN MT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME
UNORGANIZED AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. PER THE NW SFC
AND MID LEVEL FLOW...FOCUS OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE IN OUR
SOUTHERN UPSLOPE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 700MB
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -4C SUGGEST SOME SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...PRIMARILY OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND BIG HORNS...
GREATEST ON NW ASPECTS.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...GREATEST OVER THE MTNS AS OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A DRYING AIRMASS.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE TROF ALOFT...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...
CLIPPER FROM NW CANADA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS. TIMING OF
FROPA HAS TRENDED FASTER SINCE YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ONLY
IN THE 50S WITH COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME DURING THE
MORNING...WITH A DROP IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
AFTER 18Z. THIS WILL BE A TRUE BURST OF FALL WITH COOL TEMPS AND
GUSTY N-NW WINDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF BUT WITH A LITTLE
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND FAIRLY LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB TEMPS WE COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH WET SNOW ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. KEEP IN MIND ANY PCPN WILL BE BRIEF. SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FOR A COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE ANOTHER
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...THOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST IN OUR
EAST. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
MILD AND DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS DID BRING SOME WEAK
ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT BAY.

LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT
WINDY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT IN THESE AREAS. AT
THIS TIME...THE FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS DID NOT LOOK
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL COMBINE TO MAKE SAT AND MON THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. GUSTY W TO NW
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WED. SHOWERS WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED OVER THE REGION ON WED WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON WED.
ARTHUR/CHURCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/059 042/055 033/068 049/073 047/069 047/071 048/069
    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
LVM 039/056 035/058 030/068 042/071 040/067 041/070 044/069
    32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
HDN 043/061 039/057 030/069 045/074 046/070 044/071 047/070
    52/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
MLS 047/060 041/054 030/065 045/073 046/067 044/068 045/065
    52/W    02/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B    11/B
4BQ 044/060 039/056 030/065 044/072 047/067 043/069 045/066
    42/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U    11/B
BHK 045/059 038/053 030/058 039/068 042/062 041/064 040/061
    72/W    03/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B    11/B
SHR 044/057 035/056 028/067 041/071 044/067 040/070 043/066
    32/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302051
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
251 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW LIFTING THRU NORTHERN SD CONTINUES TO WRAP
SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR EAST. PCPN AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...MUCH GREATER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO THE
BLACK HILLS...BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL FOR THE MOST PART END IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
PACIFIC TROF MOVING INTO WESTERN MT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME
UNORGANIZED AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR WEST. PER THE NW SFC
AND MID LEVEL FLOW...FOCUS OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE IN OUR
SOUTHERN UPSLOPE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 700MB
TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -4C SUGGEST SOME SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...PRIMARILY OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND BIG HORNS...
GREATEST ON NW ASPECTS.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...GREATEST OVER THE MTNS AS OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A DRYING AIRMASS.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE TROF ALOFT...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...
CLIPPER FROM NW CANADA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS. TIMING OF
FROPA HAS TRENDED FASTER SINCE YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ONLY
IN THE 50S WITH COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME DURING THE
MORNING...WITH A DROP IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
AFTER 18Z. THIS WILL BE A TRUE BURST OF FALL WITH COOL TEMPS AND
GUSTY N-NW WINDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF BUT WITH A LITTLE
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND FAIRLY LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER WET BULB TEMPS WE COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH WET SNOW ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. KEEP IN MIND ANY PCPN WILL BE BRIEF. SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FOR A COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD SEE ANOTHER
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE...THOUGH NW SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST IN OUR
EAST. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
MILD AND DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS DID BRING SOME WEAK
ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT BAY.

LEE TROUGHING WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT
WINDY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT IN THESE AREAS. AT
THIS TIME...THE FORECAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS DID NOT LOOK
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL COMBINE TO MAKE SAT AND MON THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AREAS E AND SE OF KMLS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. GUSTY W TO NW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND WED. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED OVER THE REGION
ON WED WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ON WED. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/059 042/055 033/068 049/073 047/069 047/071 048/069
    22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
LVM 039/056 035/058 030/068 042/071 040/067 041/070 044/069
    32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
HDN 043/061 039/057 030/069 045/074 046/070 044/071 047/070
    32/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B
MLS 047/060 041/054 030/065 045/073 046/067 044/068 045/065
    32/W    02/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B    11/B
4BQ 044/060 039/056 030/065 044/072 047/067 043/069 045/066
    32/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U    11/B
BHK 045/059 038/053 030/058 039/068 042/062 041/064 040/061
    72/W    03/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B    11/B
SHR 044/057 035/056 028/067 041/071 044/067 040/070 043/066
    32/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301733
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1133 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THE PAST
36 HOURS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND ALSO BE ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE STACKED LOWS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAINY DAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAPID CITY AND BOWMAN RADARS SHOWING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVING NORTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF
OF POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER COUNTIES AND ALL OF FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PLACE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS FALLON
AND CARTER COUNTIES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN TIGHTLY PACKED
ISOBARS ACROSS FALLON AND ESPECIALLY CARTER COUNTIES TODAY
ALLOWING FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...JUST A CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXISTS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S OR JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER READINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN.

BOTH LOWS EJECT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT TAKING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
JUST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH READINGS ONLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOOLEY/MCDONALD

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
DRIVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT
OF ALBERTA. THE JET WILL BRING MODERATE Q VECTOR FORCING ALONG
WITH STRONG JET DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE DOES LOOK LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND DOWN SLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM
TO NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EFFECTING KMLS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
CREATE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM EAST OF MILES CITY TO
BROADUS. THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KLVM
AFTER AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 044/059 040/056 036/068 049/073 049/071 047/069
    2/T 22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 061 039/056 035/058 034/068 042/071 042/068 041/068
    3/T 32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 068 043/061 039/059 034/069 045/074 046/072 044/070
    2/T 22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 065 047/060 041/057 031/065 045/073 046/069 044/067
    7/T 32/W    12/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B
4BQ 061 044/060 039/059 031/065 044/072 046/069 043/067
    8/T 32/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U
BHK 058 045/059 038/056 030/058 039/068 043/064 040/062
    +/T 73/W    13/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 063 044/057 036/059 032/067 041/071 044/068 040/068
    2/T 42/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS








000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301733
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1133 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THE PAST
36 HOURS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND ALSO BE ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE STACKED LOWS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAINY DAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAPID CITY AND BOWMAN RADARS SHOWING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVING NORTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF
OF POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER COUNTIES AND ALL OF FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PLACE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS FALLON
AND CARTER COUNTIES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN TIGHTLY PACKED
ISOBARS ACROSS FALLON AND ESPECIALLY CARTER COUNTIES TODAY
ALLOWING FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...JUST A CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXISTS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S OR JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER READINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN.

BOTH LOWS EJECT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT TAKING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
JUST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH READINGS ONLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOOLEY/MCDONALD

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
DRIVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT
OF ALBERTA. THE JET WILL BRING MODERATE Q VECTOR FORCING ALONG
WITH STRONG JET DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE DOES LOOK LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND DOWN SLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM
TO NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EFFECTING KMLS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
CREATE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM EAST OF MILES CITY TO
BROADUS. THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KLVM
AFTER AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 044/059 040/056 036/068 049/073 049/071 047/069
    2/T 22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 061 039/056 035/058 034/068 042/071 042/068 041/068
    3/T 32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 068 043/061 039/059 034/069 045/074 046/072 044/070
    2/T 22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 065 047/060 041/057 031/065 045/073 046/069 044/067
    7/T 32/W    12/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B
4BQ 061 044/060 039/059 031/065 044/072 046/069 043/067
    8/T 32/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U
BHK 058 045/059 038/056 030/058 039/068 043/064 040/062
    +/T 73/W    13/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 063 044/057 036/059 032/067 041/071 044/068 040/068
    2/T 42/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS







000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301003
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
403 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THE PAST
36 HOURS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND ALSO BE ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE STACKED LOWS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAINY DAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAPID CITY RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW AND MOVING NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY
AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER
COUNTIES AND ALL OF FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO PLACE AN ADDITIONAL
1-1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
TODAY RESULTING IN TIGHTLY PACKED ISOBARS ACROSS FALLON AND
ESPECIALLY CARTER COUNTIES TODAY ALLOWING FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...JUST A
CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER EXISTS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S OR JUST
A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS
A RESULT OF THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

BOTH LOWS EJECT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT TAKING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
JUST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND UPSLOPE FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH READINGS ONLY
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
DRIVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT
OF ALBERTA. THE JET WILL BRING MODERATE Q VECTOR FORCING ALONG
WITH STRONG JET DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE DOES LOOK LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND DOWN SLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM
TO NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG. THE
FOG WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS TO
MILES CITY. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 16Z. SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WILL
CREATE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES CITY TO
BROADUS. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 044/059 040/057 036/068 049/073 049/071 047/069
    2/T 22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 064 039/056 035/058 034/068 042/071 042/068 041/068
    3/T 32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 067 043/061 039/059 034/069 045/074 046/072 044/070
    2/T 22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 064 047/060 041/057 031/065 045/073 046/069 044/067
    7/T 32/W    12/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B
4BQ 059 044/060 039/059 031/065 044/072 046/069 043/067
    8/T 32/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U
BHK 059 045/059 038/056 030/058 039/068 043/065 041/062
    +/T 73/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 064 044/057 036/059 032/067 041/071 044/068 040/068
    2/T 42/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300252
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
852 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL INDICATORS SHOW LOTS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMIC PROCESSES
AFFECTING OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 600 AM TOMORROW MORNING AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS RAPID CITY VICINITY AND UP THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS. SO THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THIS AREA VERY LEGIT. THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MUCH LESS IN THE TERMS OF IMPACT. BT

FOR THIS EVENING...ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE EVENING IN EAST AS DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP WILL REACH SE CORNER OF STATE
UNTIL AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. HRRR A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON QPF
OVER CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER SO PULLED HIGHER POPS WEST TO THESE
COUNTIES JUST A BIT FOR LATE TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEAR YELLOWSTONE
PARK. FOG/STRATUS FROM EARLIER TODAY IS ERODING AWAY SLOWLY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND AS WE NO LONGER HAVE STRONG UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR WEST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET AS WE APPROACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S UNDER COOL POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...BUT WE MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER NEAR BILLINGS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS.

BIGGER CONCERN EVOLVES AROUND STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING
TOPS IN COLORADO AS 100KT H3 JET EMERGES FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TROF. SFC LOW INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL TRACK UP THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NEARLY STACKED LOWS WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A GOOD POSITION TO BRING
OUR FAR EAST A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL MODELS
HAVE COME IN LINE HERE IN SHOWING STRONG QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IMPACTING OUR EAST. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO
FORECAST...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF
PCPN FOR FALLON/CARTER COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER PER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE PCPN ON THE
WESTERN SIDE...WHEREAS MILES CITY SHOULD GET SOME RAIN TOMORROW
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. BILLINGS WILL BE UNAFFECTED. SYSTEM
WILL DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO POINT OUT
THE INCREASE IN W-NW WINDS TOMORROW AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR
WEST...A CHANGE FROM THE EAST WINDS WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE.

OTHERWISE...NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO OUR
WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE COMES THROUGH. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
STRONGLY DOWNSLOPED AND THIS WILL LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. 700MB TEMPS
FALL BELOW 0C TUESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS...A LOWER SNOW LEVEL THAN WE SAW WITH THE MOST RECENT
SYSTEM. FLAT RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING US A DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP TOMORROW WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S...OR JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEPING OUR TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
PUSH IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE 12Z EC CAME IN A BIT STRONGER /
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND OUT OF RESPECT TO THIS
POSSIBILITY...COOLED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
INTRODUCED A SLT CHC POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS RIDGING BECOMES STRONGER TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING OUT EVEN FARTHER...THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT MAINTAINING
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST CFS RUNS HAVE ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS WARMER
AND DRIER TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER...SO THERE IS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN HOLDING OFF ANY COLDER OR WETTER SPELL FOR A
WEEK OR TWO LONGER. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS OUTLOOK IS WHETHER ANY
TYPHOONS DEVELOP IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND KICK THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHILE GOING EXTRA-TROPICAL. CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT AS
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPAND. FOG MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD NEARLY
TO KBIL FOR A TIME BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN THERE BY 09 UTC.
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT BY
09 UTC AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE KBHK...K4BQ...AND POSSIBLY KMLS AREAS. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/067 044/060 042/057 036/068 049/074 050/071 047/069
    12/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 045/066 037/057 035/060 035/067 043/071 042/069 041/068
    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 045/069 043/061 039/059 035/069 046/074 047/073 044/070
    12/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 048/065 047/060 041/057 032/064 046/073 048/070 044/068
    37/W    32/W    11/B    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
4BQ 048/062 044/060 039/059 032/064 045/071 047/070 044/068
    88/T    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 048/059 045/059 038/056 029/057 040/068 045/065 041/063
    9+/T    52/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 047/065 042/057 034/060 032/067 042/071 045/070 040/068
    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300252
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
852 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL INDICATORS SHOW LOTS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMIC PROCESSES
AFFECTING OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 600 AM TOMORROW MORNING AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS RAPID CITY VICINITY AND UP THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS. SO THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THIS AREA VERY LEGIT. THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MUCH LESS IN THE TERMS OF IMPACT. BT

FOR THIS EVENING...ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE EVENING IN EAST AS DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP WILL REACH SE CORNER OF STATE
UNTIL AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. HRRR A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON QPF
OVER CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER SO PULLED HIGHER POPS WEST TO THESE
COUNTIES JUST A BIT FOR LATE TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEAR YELLOWSTONE
PARK. FOG/STRATUS FROM EARLIER TODAY IS ERODING AWAY SLOWLY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND AS WE NO LONGER HAVE STRONG UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR WEST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET AS WE APPROACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S UNDER COOL POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...BUT WE MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER NEAR BILLINGS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS.

BIGGER CONCERN EVOLVES AROUND STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING
TOPS IN COLORADO AS 100KT H3 JET EMERGES FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TROF. SFC LOW INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL TRACK UP THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NEARLY STACKED LOWS WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A GOOD POSITION TO BRING
OUR FAR EAST A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL MODELS
HAVE COME IN LINE HERE IN SHOWING STRONG QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IMPACTING OUR EAST. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO
FORECAST...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF
PCPN FOR FALLON/CARTER COUNTIES BY TOMORROW EVENING. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER PER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE PCPN ON THE
WESTERN SIDE...WHEREAS MILES CITY SHOULD GET SOME RAIN TOMORROW
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. BILLINGS WILL BE UNAFFECTED. SYSTEM
WILL DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO POINT OUT
THE INCREASE IN W-NW WINDS TOMORROW AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR
WEST...A CHANGE FROM THE EAST WINDS WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE.

OTHERWISE...NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO OUR
WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE COMES THROUGH. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
STRONGLY DOWNSLOPED AND THIS WILL LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. 700MB TEMPS
FALL BELOW 0C TUESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS...A LOWER SNOW LEVEL THAN WE SAW WITH THE MOST RECENT
SYSTEM. FLAT RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING US A DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP TOMORROW WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S...OR JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEPING OUR TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
PUSH IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE 12Z EC CAME IN A BIT STRONGER /
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND OUT OF RESPECT TO THIS
POSSIBILITY...COOLED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
INTRODUCED A SLT CHC POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS RIDGING BECOMES STRONGER TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING OUT EVEN FARTHER...THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT MAINTAINING
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST CFS RUNS HAVE ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS WARMER
AND DRIER TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER...SO THERE IS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN HOLDING OFF ANY COLDER OR WETTER SPELL FOR A
WEEK OR TWO LONGER. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS OUTLOOK IS WHETHER ANY
TYPHOONS DEVELOP IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND KICK THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHILE GOING EXTRA-TROPICAL. CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT AS
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPAND. FOG MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD NEARLY
TO KBIL FOR A TIME BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN THERE BY 09 UTC.
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT BY
09 UTC AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE KBHK...K4BQ...AND POSSIBLY KMLS AREAS. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/067 044/060 042/057 036/068 049/074 050/071 047/069
    12/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 045/066 037/057 035/060 035/067 043/071 042/069 041/068
    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 045/069 043/061 039/059 035/069 046/074 047/073 044/070
    12/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 048/065 047/060 041/057 032/064 046/073 048/070 044/068
    37/W    32/W    11/B    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
4BQ 048/062 044/060 039/059 032/064 045/071 047/070 044/068
    88/T    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 048/059 045/059 038/056 029/057 040/068 045/065 041/063
    9+/T    52/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 047/065 042/057 034/060 032/067 042/071 045/070 040/068
    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292047
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEAR YELLOWSTONE
PARK. FOG/STRATUS FROM EARLIER TODAY IS ERODING AWAY SLOWLY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND AS WE NO LONGER HAVE STRONG UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR WEST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET AS WE APPROACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S UNDER COOL POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...BUT WE MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER NEAR BILLINGS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS.

BIGGER CONCERN EVOLVES AROUND STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING
TOPS IN COLORADO AS 100KT H3 JET EMERGES FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TROF. SFC LOW INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL TRACK UP THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NEARLY STACKED LOWS WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A GOOD POSITION TO BRING
OUR FAR EAST A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL MODELS
HAVE COME IN LINE HERE IN SHOWING STRONG QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IMPACTING OUR EAST...WHERE PWATS REMAIN NEAR AN
INCH. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
AND OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF PCPN FOR FALLON/CARTER COUNTIES BY
TOMORROW EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER PER ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT
OFF TO THE PCPN ON THE WESTERN SIDE...WHEREAS MILES CITY SHOULD
GET SOME RAIN TOMORROW AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. BILLINGS WILL BE
UNAFFECTED. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD ALSO POINT OUT THE INCREASE IN W-NW WINDS TOMORROW AS SFC
LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR WEST...A CHANGE FROM THE EAST WINDS WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE.

OTHERWISE...NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO OUR
WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE COMES THROUGH. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
STRONGLY DOWNSLOPED AND THIS WILL LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. 700MB TEMPS
FALL BELOW 0C TUESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS...A LOWER SNOW LEVEL THAN WE SAW WITH THE MOST RECENT
SYSTEM. FLAT RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING US A DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP TOMORROW WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S...OR JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEPING OUR TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
PUSH IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE 12Z EC CAME IN A BIT STRONGER /
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND OUT OF RESPECT TO THIS
POSSIBILITY...COOLED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
INTRODUCED A SLT CHC POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS RIDGING BECOMES STRONGER TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING OUT EVEN FARTHER...THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT MAINTAINING
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST CFS RUNS HAVE ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS WARMER
AND DRIER TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER...SO THERE IS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN HOLDING OFF ANY COLDER OR WETTER SPELL FOR A
WEEK OR TWO LONGER. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS OUTLOOK IS WHETHER ANY
TYPHOONS DEVELOP IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND KICK THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHILE GOING EXTRA-TROPICAL. CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE IMPROVING TREND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. SOME ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM KLWT TO
KBIL TO KSHR. RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KMLS AND KBHK. CHURCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/067 044/060 042/057 036/068 049/074 050/071 047/069
    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 045/066 037/057 035/060 035/067 043/071 042/069 041/068
    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 045/069 043/061 039/059 035/069 046/074 047/073 044/070
    22/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 048/065 047/060 041/057 032/064 046/073 048/070 044/068
    37/W    32/W    11/B    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
4BQ 048/062 044/060 039/059 032/064 045/071 047/070 044/068
    68/T    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 048/059 045/059 038/056 029/057 040/068 045/065 041/063
    9+/T    52/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 047/065 042/057 034/060 032/067 042/071 045/070 040/068
    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292047
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NEAR YELLOWSTONE
PARK. FOG/STRATUS FROM EARLIER TODAY IS ERODING AWAY SLOWLY WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND AS WE NO LONGER HAVE STRONG UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR WEST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET AS WE APPROACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S UNDER COOL POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH...BUT WE MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER NEAR BILLINGS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS.

BIGGER CONCERN EVOLVES AROUND STRONG ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING
TOPS IN COLORADO AS 100KT H3 JET EMERGES FROM SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TROF. SFC LOW INTENSIFYING IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL TRACK UP THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NEARLY STACKED LOWS WILL LIFT THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A GOOD POSITION TO BRING
OUR FAR EAST A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL MODELS
HAVE COME IN LINE HERE IN SHOWING STRONG QG FORCING AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IMPACTING OUR EAST...WHERE PWATS REMAIN NEAR AN
INCH. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
AND OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF PCPN FOR FALLON/CARTER COUNTIES BY
TOMORROW EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER PER ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT
OFF TO THE PCPN ON THE WESTERN SIDE...WHEREAS MILES CITY SHOULD
GET SOME RAIN TOMORROW AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. BILLINGS WILL BE
UNAFFECTED. SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD ALSO POINT OUT THE INCREASE IN W-NW WINDS TOMORROW AS SFC
LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR WEST...A CHANGE FROM THE EAST WINDS WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE.

OTHERWISE...NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO OUR
WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE COMES THROUGH. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
STRONGLY DOWNSLOPED AND THIS WILL LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. 700MB TEMPS
FALL BELOW 0C TUESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS...A LOWER SNOW LEVEL THAN WE SAW WITH THE MOST RECENT
SYSTEM. FLAT RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING US A DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP TOMORROW WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S...OR JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEPING OUR TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
PUSH IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE 12Z EC CAME IN A BIT STRONGER /
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AND OUT OF RESPECT TO THIS
POSSIBILITY...COOLED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND
INTRODUCED A SLT CHC POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND RISING HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AS RIDGING BECOMES STRONGER TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING OUT EVEN FARTHER...THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT MAINTAINING
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST CFS RUNS HAVE ALSO CAUGHT ONTO THIS WARMER
AND DRIER TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER...SO THERE IS
SOME CONFIDENCE IN HOLDING OFF ANY COLDER OR WETTER SPELL FOR A
WEEK OR TWO LONGER. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS OUTLOOK IS WHETHER ANY
TYPHOONS DEVELOP IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND KICK THE LONG-WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHILE GOING EXTRA-TROPICAL. CHURCH

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE IMPROVING TREND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. SOME ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM KLWT TO
KBIL TO KSHR. RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KMLS AND KBHK. CHURCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/067 044/060 042/057 036/068 049/074 050/071 047/069
    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 045/066 037/057 035/060 035/067 043/071 042/069 041/068
    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 045/069 043/061 039/059 035/069 046/074 047/073 044/070
    22/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 048/065 047/060 041/057 032/064 046/073 048/070 044/068
    37/W    32/W    11/B    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
4BQ 048/062 044/060 039/059 032/064 045/071 047/070 044/068
    68/T    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 048/059 045/059 038/056 029/057 040/068 045/065 041/063
    9+/T    52/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 047/065 042/057 034/060 032/067 042/071 045/070 040/068
    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291536
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
936 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT
OF NORTH CENTRAL WY...WITH A SURGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THIS SEEMS TO HAVE REINFORCED THE EASTERLY SFC WINDS AND
WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AGAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST ROUND OF PCPN FOR
BILLINGS WEST UNTIL ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATER. HAVE
RAISED POPS AND ADDED MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 18Z. SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS 500MB TEMPS OF ABOUT -16C ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. COMBINATION OF THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SOME SUN BREAKS/ SFC
HEATING LATER ON SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AS WELL IF WE SEE
TEMPS GET TO THE LOW 60S. MIGHT EVEN SEE AN ISOLD TSTM OVER THE
MTNS. PCPN IN OUR EAST SHOULD TAPER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS
THIS INITIAL TROF LIFTS THROUGH...WITH AN INCREASE NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONGER ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE
OF ENERGY HAS EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
WYOMING MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY REACHED SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE
MOVES NORTH. PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT
NUMEROUS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THESE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. BOTH LOWS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN SHOWERS
LIFT NORTH AND WIND TURNS AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. CHURCH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    8/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/T 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    7/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    4/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291536
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
936 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT
OF NORTH CENTRAL WY...WITH A SURGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THIS SEEMS TO HAVE REINFORCED THE EASTERLY SFC WINDS AND
WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AGAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST ROUND OF PCPN FOR
BILLINGS WEST UNTIL ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATER. HAVE
RAISED POPS AND ADDED MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 18Z. SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS 500MB TEMPS OF ABOUT -16C ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. COMBINATION OF THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SOME SUN BREAKS/ SFC
HEATING LATER ON SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AS WELL IF WE SEE
TEMPS GET TO THE LOW 60S. MIGHT EVEN SEE AN ISOLD TSTM OVER THE
MTNS. PCPN IN OUR EAST SHOULD TAPER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS
THIS INITIAL TROF LIFTS THROUGH...WITH AN INCREASE NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONGER ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE
OF ENERGY HAS EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
WYOMING MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY REACHED SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE
MOVES NORTH. PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT
NUMEROUS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THESE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. BOTH LOWS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN SHOWERS
LIFT NORTH AND WIND TURNS AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. CHURCH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    8/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/T 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    7/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    4/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290955
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
355 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY HAS
EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING MOVING
NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY REACHED
SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES NORTH.
PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT NUMEROUS...FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE SAME AREAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
BOTH LOWS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN WHICH WILL WILL RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    6/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/W 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290955
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
355 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY HAS
EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING MOVING
NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY REACHED
SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES NORTH.
PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT NUMEROUS...FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE SAME AREAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
BOTH LOWS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN WHICH WILL WILL RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    6/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/W 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290220
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
820 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

WE REDUCED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING FROM HYSHAM TO MILES CITY AND BAKER IN RESPECT TO THE
RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LACK OF FORCING ALOFT. THE SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WY AS OF 02 UTC MAY REACH SHERIDAN LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN MT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
BATCH OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIKELY TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT
AND MON MORNING. THAT WILL OCCUR AS THE WAVE AND CONVECTION FOUND
NEAR CHEYENNE THIS EVENING PIVOTS NORTHWARD...AS SIMULATED BY THE
HRRR AND AS ALREADY REFLECTED BY OUR FORECAST.

THE ONLY OTHER REAL CHANGE OF NOTE THAT WAS MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST WAS TO RAISE LOWS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS AS CLOUDS WILL
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY OVER NEVADA. VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT EXISTS OVER OUR REGION CURRENTLY...BUT SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FOG/STRATUS AND SOME DRIZZLE...ENOUGH  TO MAKE THE STREETS WET
IN BILLINGS IN FACT. HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER AS ACTUAL ASCENT/PCPN LIFT
INTO THE REGION OVER TIME.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN WY MOVES INTO OUR REGION. WILL SUSTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR OUR UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT...AND RAISE POPS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH TO CENTRAL PARTS FROM 06-12Z THEN NORTH TO EAST PARTS
12-18Z TOMORROW TO COVER THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. FOR BILLINGS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE BUT ENDING BEFORE NOON...IE THE MORNING
COMMUTE. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR AND SOME DOWNSLOPING DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS PCPN CHANCES SHIFT EAST. THUS IT WILL BE WARMER
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CRACK 60F IN OUR WEST AND CENTRAL
PARTS INCLUDING BILLINGS. SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INCREASED SFC
TEMPS UNDER AREA OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW.

MORE DYNAMIC PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL IMPACT OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SFC
LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WITH MOIST
ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME GOOD
RAINFALL WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS FOR OUR EAST...SAY MILES CITY
TO BROADUS EAST...WITH TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN
INCH IN THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS
FURTHER FOR THESE PERIODS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT OUR WEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PLAINS LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB
FURTHER INTO THE 60S IN OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS WITH THE
INCREASED DOWNSLOPE WINDS...IE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. W-NW WINDS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE GUSTY.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT MIDWEEK BRINGING BROAD TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH REGION FROM THE NW. THIS IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY ON
THURSDAY BY A SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH MODELS
HAVE PUSHED THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS WAVE FURTHER NE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY WIDESPREAD LOW POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST ZONES ON THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOWER LEVELS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN /RIDGING/ BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES. GUIDANCE COMING IN WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING SO I BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG NORTH FACING TERRAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG
SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM WYOMING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/064 048/068 046/060 043/059 037/067 046/074 051/074
    76/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 042/067 045/066 037/058 037/060 034/066 040/071 043/071
    63/W    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 044/065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/075
    86/W    22/W    23/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 045/063 048/064 045/059 043/058 034/062 044/071 049/072
    59/W    66/W    32/W    12/W    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 047/064 048/062 044/059 041/060 033/061 043/071 047/072
    99/T    67/T    22/W    12/W    00/B    11/U    10/U
BHK 043/057 049/061 044/057 039/056 032/056 038/066 046/068
    59/T    99/T    42/W    23/W    10/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 045/067 045/066 041/057 035/061 033/064 040/072 043/072
    94/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290220
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
820 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

WE REDUCED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING FROM HYSHAM TO MILES CITY AND BAKER IN RESPECT TO THE
RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LACK OF FORCING ALOFT. THE SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WY AS OF 02 UTC MAY REACH SHERIDAN LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN MT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
BATCH OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIKELY TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT
AND MON MORNING. THAT WILL OCCUR AS THE WAVE AND CONVECTION FOUND
NEAR CHEYENNE THIS EVENING PIVOTS NORTHWARD...AS SIMULATED BY THE
HRRR AND AS ALREADY REFLECTED BY OUR FORECAST.

THE ONLY OTHER REAL CHANGE OF NOTE THAT WAS MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST WAS TO RAISE LOWS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS AS CLOUDS WILL
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY OVER NEVADA. VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT EXISTS OVER OUR REGION CURRENTLY...BUT SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FOG/STRATUS AND SOME DRIZZLE...ENOUGH  TO MAKE THE STREETS WET
IN BILLINGS IN FACT. HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER AS ACTUAL ASCENT/PCPN LIFT
INTO THE REGION OVER TIME.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN WY MOVES INTO OUR REGION. WILL SUSTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR OUR UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT...AND RAISE POPS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH TO CENTRAL PARTS FROM 06-12Z THEN NORTH TO EAST PARTS
12-18Z TOMORROW TO COVER THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. FOR BILLINGS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE BUT ENDING BEFORE NOON...IE THE MORNING
COMMUTE. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR AND SOME DOWNSLOPING DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS PCPN CHANCES SHIFT EAST. THUS IT WILL BE WARMER
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CRACK 60F IN OUR WEST AND CENTRAL
PARTS INCLUDING BILLINGS. SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INCREASED SFC
TEMPS UNDER AREA OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW.

MORE DYNAMIC PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL IMPACT OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SFC
LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WITH MOIST
ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME GOOD
RAINFALL WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS FOR OUR EAST...SAY MILES CITY
TO BROADUS EAST...WITH TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN
INCH IN THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS
FURTHER FOR THESE PERIODS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT OUR WEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PLAINS LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB
FURTHER INTO THE 60S IN OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS WITH THE
INCREASED DOWNSLOPE WINDS...IE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. W-NW WINDS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE GUSTY.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT MIDWEEK BRINGING BROAD TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH REGION FROM THE NW. THIS IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY ON
THURSDAY BY A SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH MODELS
HAVE PUSHED THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS WAVE FURTHER NE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY WIDESPREAD LOW POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST ZONES ON THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOWER LEVELS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN /RIDGING/ BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES. GUIDANCE COMING IN WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING SO I BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG NORTH FACING TERRAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG
SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM WYOMING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/064 048/068 046/060 043/059 037/067 046/074 051/074
    76/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 042/067 045/066 037/058 037/060 034/066 040/071 043/071
    63/W    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 044/065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/075
    86/W    22/W    23/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 045/063 048/064 045/059 043/058 034/062 044/071 049/072
    59/W    66/W    32/W    12/W    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 047/064 048/062 044/059 041/060 033/061 043/071 047/072
    99/T    67/T    22/W    12/W    00/B    11/U    10/U
BHK 043/057 049/061 044/057 039/056 032/056 038/066 046/068
    59/T    99/T    42/W    23/W    10/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 045/067 045/066 041/057 035/061 033/064 040/072 043/072
    94/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282059
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
259 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY OVER NEVADA. VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT EXISTS OVER OUR REGION CURRENTLY...BUT SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FOG/STRATUS AND SOME DRIZZLE...ENOUGH  TO MAKE THE STREETS WET
IN BILLINGS IN FACT. HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER AS ACTUAL ASCENT/PCPN LIFT
INTO THE REGION OVER TIME.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN WY MOVES INTO OUR REGION. WILL SUSTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR OUR UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT...AND RAISE POPS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH TO CENTRAL PARTS FROM 06-12Z THEN NORTH TO EAST PARTS
12-18Z TOMORROW TO COVER THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. FOR BILLINGS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE BUT ENDING BEFORE NOON...IE THE MORNING
COMMUTE. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR AND LESS DOWNSLOPING DURING THE
DAY MONDAY AS PCPN CHANCES SHIFT EAST. THUS IT WILL BE WARMER
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CRACK 60F IN OUR WEST AND CENTRAL
PARTS INCLUDING BILLINGS. SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INCREASED SFC
TEMPS UNDER AREA OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW.

MORE DYNAMIC PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL IMPACT OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SFC
LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WITH MOIST
ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME GOOD
RAINFALL WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS FOR OUR EAST...SAY MILES CITY
TO BROADUS EAST...WITH TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN
INCH IN THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS
FURTHER FOR THESE PERIODS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT OUR WEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PLAINS LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
CLIMB FURTHER INTO THE 60S IN OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS WITH THE
INCREASED DOWNSLOPE WINDS...IE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. W-NW WINDS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE GUSTY.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT MIDWEEK BRINGING BROAD TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH REGION FROM THE NW. THIS IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY ON
THURSDAY BY A SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH MODELS
HAVE PUSHED THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS WAVE FURTHER NE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY WIDESPREAD LOW POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST ZONES ON THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOWER LEVELS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN /RIDGING/ BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES. GUIDANCE COMING IN WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING SO I BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG NORTH FACING TERRAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG
SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM WYOMING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/064 048/068 046/060 043/059 037/067 046/074 051/074
    76/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 042/067 045/066 037/058 037/060 034/066 040/071 043/071
    63/W    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 044/065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/075
    86/W    22/W    23/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 044/063 048/064 045/059 043/058 034/062 044/071 049/072
    59/W    66/W    32/W    12/W    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 044/064 048/062 044/059 041/060 033/061 043/071 047/072
    88/T    67/T    22/W    12/W    00/B    11/U    10/U
BHK 043/057 049/061 044/057 039/056 032/056 038/066 046/068
    59/T    99/T    42/W    23/W    10/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 044/067 045/066 041/057 035/061 033/064 040/072 043/072
    94/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282059
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
259 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY OVER NEVADA. VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT EXISTS OVER OUR REGION CURRENTLY...BUT SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FOG/STRATUS AND SOME DRIZZLE...ENOUGH  TO MAKE THE STREETS WET
IN BILLINGS IN FACT. HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER AS ACTUAL ASCENT/PCPN LIFT
INTO THE REGION OVER TIME.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN WY MOVES INTO OUR REGION. WILL SUSTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR OUR UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT...AND RAISE POPS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH TO CENTRAL PARTS FROM 06-12Z THEN NORTH TO EAST PARTS
12-18Z TOMORROW TO COVER THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. FOR BILLINGS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE BUT ENDING BEFORE NOON...IE THE MORNING
COMMUTE. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR AND LESS DOWNSLOPING DURING THE
DAY MONDAY AS PCPN CHANCES SHIFT EAST. THUS IT WILL BE WARMER
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CRACK 60F IN OUR WEST AND CENTRAL
PARTS INCLUDING BILLINGS. SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INCREASED SFC
TEMPS UNDER AREA OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW.

MORE DYNAMIC PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL IMPACT OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SFC
LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WITH MOIST
ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME GOOD
RAINFALL WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS FOR OUR EAST...SAY MILES CITY
TO BROADUS EAST...WITH TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN
INCH IN THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS
FURTHER FOR THESE PERIODS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT OUR WEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PLAINS LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
CLIMB FURTHER INTO THE 60S IN OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS WITH THE
INCREASED DOWNSLOPE WINDS...IE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. W-NW WINDS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE GUSTY.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT MIDWEEK BRINGING BROAD TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH REGION FROM THE NW. THIS IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY ON
THURSDAY BY A SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH MODELS
HAVE PUSHED THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS WAVE FURTHER NE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY WIDESPREAD LOW POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST ZONES ON THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOWER LEVELS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN /RIDGING/ BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES. GUIDANCE COMING IN WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING SO I BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG NORTH FACING TERRAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG
SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM WYOMING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/064 048/068 046/060 043/059 037/067 046/074 051/074
    76/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 042/067 045/066 037/058 037/060 034/066 040/071 043/071
    63/W    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 044/065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/075
    86/W    22/W    23/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 044/063 048/064 045/059 043/058 034/062 044/071 049/072
    59/W    66/W    32/W    12/W    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 044/064 048/062 044/059 041/060 033/061 043/071 047/072
    88/T    67/T    22/W    12/W    00/B    11/U    10/U
BHK 043/057 049/061 044/057 039/056 032/056 038/066 046/068
    59/T    99/T    42/W    23/W    10/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 044/067 045/066 041/057 035/061 033/064 040/072 043/072
    94/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281607
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1007 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED AGAIN TO LOWER POPS FURTHER FROM BILLINGS EAST
TODAY...AND MENTIONED LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN FAR SE MT THIS
MORNING.

PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSION ISSUED 829AM...
LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER NEVADA. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS DIFFLUENT OVER OUR REGION...WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT OTHERWISE FORCING IS WEAK WITH JET ENERGY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. LATEST RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WEST BUT LITTLE
ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS...SO WITH CONFIDENCE
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SCATTERED EVERYWHERE BILLINGS EAST...AND ANY
PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN OUR WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TSTMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
00Z...CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SSEO AND SREF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
ANY POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN SOUTHEAST MT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT WHEN STRONGER ENERGY FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH WY. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER NEVADA THIS
MORNING. MODELS KEEP THE LOW IN THIS POSITION THROUGH TONIGHT
PROVIDING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING
COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVINGS NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
AS A RESULT...BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED LIKELY
POPS WILL BE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH JUST A CHANCE ACROSS OUR EAST. CAPES ARE VERY MINIMAL AT
BEST SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EASTWARD AS WELL.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW REALLY GETS ORGANIZED ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVES INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP
QUITE A BIT AS WELL RESULTING IN A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR EAST. MODELS ARE PLACING QUITE A BIT OF
QPF ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES
LOWERING AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY WITH 50S COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH READINGS IN THE
60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN SLOWLY LIFTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF AND GEM
MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND SPEED OF
THE LOW. THE NAM12 HAS THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND IS THE
OUTLIER. GFS/ECMWF AND GEM MODELS ARE PROGGING ARE EASTERN ZONES
TO GET OVER A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE IS WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONG Q VECTOR
FORCING AND HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. LOW MOVES QUICKLY OUT
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEAVES A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DEPICT Q VECTOR
FORCING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA BUT MOISTURE ALOFT STILL LOOKS
LIMITED AND DOWN SLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. RICHMOND
&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
NORTH FACING TERRAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
WYOMING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 043/065 048/068 045/059 041/054 035/062 043/071
    3/W 63/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    11/U
LVM 053 041/065 045/064 036/058 034/053 031/062 037/069
    7/W 62/W    23/W    32/W    12/W    20/U    01/U
HDN 056 043/065 045/069 043/060 040/057 035/063 040/072
    3/W 64/W    22/W    13/W    12/W    20/U    11/U
MLS 056 044/064 048/064 045/057 040/057 034/060 039/067
    3/W 67/W    67/W    22/W    12/W    10/B    11/U
4BQ 056 044/063 048/062 044/058 039/057 034/058 038/066
    3/W 77/T    67/W    22/W    12/W    20/B    11/U
BHK 056 042/059 048/061 043/057 038/055 033/054 036/062
    3/W 68/T    98/W    42/W    22/W    20/B    11/U
SHR 057 042/066 045/065 041/057 034/053 031/059 037/068
    3/W 74/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281607
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1007 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED AGAIN TO LOWER POPS FURTHER FROM BILLINGS EAST
TODAY...AND MENTIONED LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN FAR SE MT THIS
MORNING.

PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSION ISSUED 829AM...
LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER NEVADA. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS DIFFLUENT OVER OUR REGION...WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT OTHERWISE FORCING IS WEAK WITH JET ENERGY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. LATEST RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WEST BUT LITTLE
ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS...SO WITH CONFIDENCE
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SCATTERED EVERYWHERE BILLINGS EAST...AND ANY
PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN OUR WESTERN UPSLOPE
AREAS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TSTMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
00Z...CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SSEO AND SREF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
ANY POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN SOUTHEAST MT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT WHEN STRONGER ENERGY FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH WY. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER NEVADA THIS
MORNING. MODELS KEEP THE LOW IN THIS POSITION THROUGH TONIGHT
PROVIDING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING
COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVINGS NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
AS A RESULT...BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED LIKELY
POPS WILL BE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH JUST A CHANCE ACROSS OUR EAST. CAPES ARE VERY MINIMAL AT
BEST SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EASTWARD AS WELL.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW REALLY GETS ORGANIZED ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVES INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP
QUITE A BIT AS WELL RESULTING IN A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR EAST. MODELS ARE PLACING QUITE A BIT OF
QPF ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES
LOWERING AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY WITH 50S COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH READINGS IN THE
60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN SLOWLY LIFTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF AND GEM
MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND SPEED OF
THE LOW. THE NAM12 HAS THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND IS THE
OUTLIER. GFS/ECMWF AND GEM MODELS ARE PROGGING ARE EASTERN ZONES
TO GET OVER A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE IS WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONG Q VECTOR
FORCING AND HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. LOW MOVES QUICKLY OUT
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEAVES A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DEPICT Q VECTOR
FORCING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA BUT MOISTURE ALOFT STILL LOOKS
LIMITED AND DOWN SLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. RICHMOND
&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
NORTH FACING TERRAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
WYOMING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 043/065 048/068 045/059 041/054 035/062 043/071
    3/W 63/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    11/U
LVM 053 041/065 045/064 036/058 034/053 031/062 037/069
    7/W 62/W    23/W    32/W    12/W    20/U    01/U
HDN 056 043/065 045/069 043/060 040/057 035/063 040/072
    3/W 64/W    22/W    13/W    12/W    20/U    11/U
MLS 056 044/064 048/064 045/057 040/057 034/060 039/067
    3/W 67/W    67/W    22/W    12/W    10/B    11/U
4BQ 056 044/063 048/062 044/058 039/057 034/058 038/066
    3/W 77/T    67/W    22/W    12/W    20/B    11/U
BHK 056 042/059 048/061 043/057 038/055 033/054 036/062
    3/W 68/T    98/W    42/W    22/W    20/B    11/U
SHR 057 042/066 045/065 041/057 034/053 031/059 037/068
    3/W 74/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281429
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
829 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER NEVADA. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS DIFFLUENT OVER OUR REGION...WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT OTHERWISE FORCING IS WEAK WITH JET ENERGY WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. LATEST RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WEST BUT LITTLE
ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS...SO WITH
CONFIDENCE HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SCATTERED EVERYWHERE BILLINGS
EAST...AND ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN OUR
WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TSTMS IN OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z...CONSISTENT WITH LATEST SSEO AND SREF
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN SOUTHEAST MT
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN STRONGER ENERGY FINALLY LIFTS
THROUGH WY. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER NEVADA THIS
MORNING. MODELS KEEP THE LOW IN THIS POSITION THROUGH TONIGHT
PROVIDING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING
COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVINGS NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
AS A RESULT...BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED LIKELY
POPS WILL BE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH JUST A CHANCE ACROSS OUR EAST. CAPES ARE VERY MINIMAL AT
BEST SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EASTWARD AS WELL.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW REALLY GETS ORGANIZED ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVES INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP
QUITE A BIT AS WELL RESULTING IN A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR EAST. MODELS ARE PLACING QUITE A BIT OF
QPF ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES
LOWERING AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY WITH 50S COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH READINGS IN THE
60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN SLOWLY LIFTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF AND GEM
MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND SPEED OF
THE LOW. THE NAM12 HAS THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND IS THE
OUTLIER. GFS/ECMWF AND GEM MODELS ARE PROGGING ARE EASTERN ZONES
TO GET OVER A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE IS WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONG Q VECTOR
FORCING AND HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. LOW MOVES QUICKLY OUT
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEAVES A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DEPICT Q VECTOR
FORCING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA BUT MOISTURE ALOFT STILL LOOKS
LIMITED AND DOWN SLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. RICHMOND
&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
NORTH FACING TERRAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
WYOMING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 043/065 048/068 045/059 041/054 035/062 043/071
    4/W 63/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    11/U
LVM 053 041/065 045/064 036/058 034/053 031/062 037/069
    7/W 62/W    23/W    32/W    12/W    20/U    01/U
HDN 056 043/065 045/069 043/060 040/057 035/063 040/072
    4/W 64/W    22/W    13/W    12/W    20/U    11/U
MLS 056 044/064 048/064 045/057 040/057 034/060 039/067
    3/W 67/W    67/W    22/W    12/W    10/B    11/U
4BQ 058 044/063 048/062 044/058 039/057 034/058 038/066
    3/W 77/T    67/W    22/W    12/W    20/B    11/U
BHK 056 042/059 048/061 043/057 038/055 033/054 036/062
    3/W 68/T    98/W    42/W    22/W    20/B    11/U
SHR 057 042/066 045/065 041/057 034/053 031/059 037/068
    4/W 74/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281006
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
406 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER NEVADA THIS
MORNING. MODELS KEEP THE LOW IN THIS POSITION THROUGH TONIGHT
PROVIDING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING
COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVINGS NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
AS A RESULT...BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED LIKELY
POPS WILL BE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH JUST A CHANCE ACROSS OUR EAST. CAPES ARE VERY MINIMAL AT
BEST SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EASTWARD
AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW REALLY GETS ORGANIZED
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVES INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY
NIGHT AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN UP QUITE A BIT AS WELL RESULTING IN A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR EAST. MODELS ARE PLACING QUITE
A BIT OF QPF ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY BE IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES
LOWERING AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY WITH 50S COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH READINGS IN THE
60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN SLOWLY LIFTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF AND GEM
MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND SPEED OF
THE LOW. THE NAM12 HAS THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND IS THE
OUTLIER. GFS/ECMWF AND GEM MODELS ARE PROGGING ARE EASTERN ZONES
TO GET OVER A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE IS WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONG Q VECTOR
FORCING AND HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. LOW MOVES QUICKLY OUT
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEAVES A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DEPICT Q VECTOR
FORCING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA BUT MOISTURE ALOFT STILL LOOKS
LIMITED AND DOWN SLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. RICHMOND
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM
SHERIDAN TO MILES CITY TODAY...INCLUDING BILLINGS AND LIVINGSTON.
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE THE RESULT OF PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL AND FOG. EAST OF THIS LINE...VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL FLIGHT
TERMINALS TONIGHT AS RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. RICHMOND


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 043/065 048/068 045/059 041/054 035/062 043/071
    6/W 63/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    11/U
LVM 053 041/065 045/064 036/058 034/053 031/062 037/069
    7/W 62/W    23/W    32/W    12/W    20/U    01/U
HDN 056 043/065 045/069 043/060 040/057 035/063 040/072
    5/W 64/W    22/W    13/W    12/W    20/U    11/U
MLS 055 044/064 048/064 045/057 040/057 034/060 039/067
    3/W 67/W    67/W    22/W    12/W    10/B    11/U
4BQ 058 044/063 048/062 044/058 039/057 034/058 038/066
    3/T 77/T    67/W    22/W    12/W    20/B    11/U
BHK 056 042/059 048/061 043/057 038/055 033/054 036/062
    3/W 68/T    98/W    42/W    22/W    20/B    11/U
SHR 057 042/066 045/065 041/057 034/053 031/059 037/068
    4/W 74/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281006
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
406 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED OVER NEVADA THIS
MORNING. MODELS KEEP THE LOW IN THIS POSITION THROUGH TONIGHT
PROVIDING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWING
COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVINGS NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WITH A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
AS A RESULT...BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED LIKELY
POPS WILL BE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH JUST A CHANCE ACROSS OUR EAST. CAPES ARE VERY MINIMAL AT
BEST SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT MAYBE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EASTWARD
AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW REALLY GETS ORGANIZED
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVES INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY
NIGHT AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN UP QUITE A BIT AS WELL RESULTING IN A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR EAST. MODELS ARE PLACING QUITE
A BIT OF QPF ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY BE IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES
LOWERING AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY WITH 50S COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH READINGS IN THE
60S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN SLOWLY LIFTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF AND GEM
MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND SPEED OF
THE LOW. THE NAM12 HAS THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW AND IS THE
OUTLIER. GFS/ECMWF AND GEM MODELS ARE PROGGING ARE EASTERN ZONES
TO GET OVER A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE IS WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONG Q VECTOR
FORCING AND HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. LOW MOVES QUICKLY OUT
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEAVES A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DEPICT Q VECTOR
FORCING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA BUT MOISTURE ALOFT STILL LOOKS
LIMITED AND DOWN SLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. RICHMOND
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM
SHERIDAN TO MILES CITY TODAY...INCLUDING BILLINGS AND LIVINGSTON.
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE THE RESULT OF PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL AND FOG. EAST OF THIS LINE...VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL FLIGHT
TERMINALS TONIGHT AS RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD. RICHMOND


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 043/065 048/068 045/059 041/054 035/062 043/071
    6/W 63/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    10/U    11/U
LVM 053 041/065 045/064 036/058 034/053 031/062 037/069
    7/W 62/W    23/W    32/W    12/W    20/U    01/U
HDN 056 043/065 045/069 043/060 040/057 035/063 040/072
    5/W 64/W    22/W    13/W    12/W    20/U    11/U
MLS 055 044/064 048/064 045/057 040/057 034/060 039/067
    3/W 67/W    67/W    22/W    12/W    10/B    11/U
4BQ 058 044/063 048/062 044/058 039/057 034/058 038/066
    3/T 77/T    67/W    22/W    12/W    20/B    11/U
BHK 056 042/059 048/061 043/057 038/055 033/054 036/062
    3/W 68/T    98/W    42/W    22/W    20/B    11/U
SHR 057 042/066 045/065 041/057 034/053 031/059 037/068
    4/W 74/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    20/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities