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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031530
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
930 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK ENERGY PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 9AM...ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT OVER IN
NW ROSEBUD COUNTY AS THIS ENERGY HAS PASSED...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS HINDERED BY MID LEVEL CAPPING TODAY PER
COOLER NE SFC WINDS. HOWEVER...AREA OF PV OVER SOUTHERN NV WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND OFFER SOME ASCENT BY THIS EVENING...WHICH
ALONG WITH INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT UPSTREAM PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS 0.86 INCHES AT GRAND
JUNCTION AT 12Z THIS MORNING...A FAIRLY HIGH VALUE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STALLED COLD FRONT ALONG THE MONTANA WYOMING BORDER THIS MORNING
WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TROUGH IS SWINGING EASTWARD
SLOWLY AND THIS IS INDUCING MINOR HEIGHT FALLS THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SPEED MAX PASSING OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING UNDER THIS ZONE BUT THIS IS LIKELY FAVORING THE WEST
SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THAT AREA BECAUSE AREA ON THE
EAST SIDE IS MUCH DRIER SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE MUCH
FURTHER NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SO SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT STORMS SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE MUCH MOISTURE. WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 BUT STILL EXPECT SOME 90S
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE THE FRONT HAS
NOT ARRIVED YET.

TONIGHT THE FRONT SAGS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TAP INTO MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS DEEPENS THE MOISTURE AND
INCREASES THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST BUT
STILL ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED STORMS. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN HAS THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BACKING AND THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING WHICH SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BECOMES MORE NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED WITH AN UPPER LOW BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 12Z SATURDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN IS
RELATIVELY UNDYNAMIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT COULD STILL SEE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY ABOVE A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. CERTAINLY SHOULD SEE
ELEVATED FAST MOVING STORMS SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD AGAIN BE
LIGHT. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER WEATHER ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS. THIS CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CAUSED BY
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
MAKE THE WEEKEND WEATHER VERY ACTIVE ACROSS MONTANA.

SATURDAY...TROUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS BECOMING
CLOSER WITH THE AXIS MOVING INTO EASTERN IDAHO 00Z SUNDAY. THIS
SETS UP DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA. GFS PROJECTING CAPES AROUND
1000J/KG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND AN INCH FROM BILLINGS
EAST. THE PWATS WERE 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE ECMWF
WAS EVEN SHOWING A LITTLE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH...WHICH
POTENTIALLY COULD DRAW IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG
FORCING WITH A 100KT JET KICKING INTO WYOMING SHOULD IGNITE
SHOWERS AND A THUNDESTORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY DRIFT NORTHEAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND EARLY IN THE
DAY...THUS LIMITING HEATING AND POTENTIAL SURFACE BASED CAPE.
ELEVATED CAPE WILL STILL BE THERE HOWEVER...SO NOT SURE INITIATION
WILL BE A CONCERN. RAISED POPS AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH RIPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
LEAVES BEHIND ZONAL FLOW. A SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40KTS OVER CENTRAL ZONES AND 45KTS OVER
THE EAST. SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY. SOME ASCENT PRESENT AND MAY
KEEP THESE WINDS FROM SURFACING...BUT THE GRADIENT ALONE SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EVENTS IN
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH MORE ENERGY
WRAPPING AROUND INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE WEAKER ECMWF WAVE OF MONDAY
NIGHT. EITHER WAY...ASCENT ARRIVES AND THUS RAISED POPS. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DRYING OUT DAY. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS THAT CROSSED WESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING KBIL...THIS MORNING ARE DIMINISHING AND SLOWLY
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST
FROM IDAHO INTO COOKE CITY AND TOWARD KLVM THROUGH THE MORNING.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
KBIL WEST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 052/073 053/074 049/066 043/070 045/070 046/073
    1/B 22/T    35/T    77/T    21/U    22/W    21/B
LVM 079 046/072 046/073 040/064 036/070 038/068 038/074
    2/T 34/T    45/T    86/T    21/B    22/W    21/B
HDN 085 053/079 053/078 049/070 043/072 044/072 044/075
    1/B 22/T    34/T    66/T    21/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 088 059/079 059/080 053/070 044/070 045/071 045/074
    1/B 22/T    44/T    66/T    32/W    11/B    11/B
4BQ 091 058/082 059/084 054/073 046/072 048/072 048/074
    0/B 12/T    33/T    43/T    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 092 059/083 059/080 053/072 045/069 043/070 045/072
    1/B 22/T    44/T    53/T    22/W    11/B    12/T
SHR 090 051/081 051/082 047/072 039/073 040/072 042/072
    1/B 22/T    34/T    63/T    11/U    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031530
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
930 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK ENERGY PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 9AM...ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT OVER IN
NW ROSEBUD COUNTY AS THIS ENERGY HAS PASSED...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IS HINDERED BY MID LEVEL CAPPING TODAY PER
COOLER NE SFC WINDS. HOWEVER...AREA OF PV OVER SOUTHERN NV WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND OFFER SOME ASCENT BY THIS EVENING...WHICH
ALONG WITH INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT UPSTREAM PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS 0.86 INCHES AT GRAND
JUNCTION AT 12Z THIS MORNING...A FAIRLY HIGH VALUE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STALLED COLD FRONT ALONG THE MONTANA WYOMING BORDER THIS MORNING
WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TROUGH IS SWINGING EASTWARD
SLOWLY AND THIS IS INDUCING MINOR HEIGHT FALLS THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SPEED MAX PASSING OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING UNDER THIS ZONE BUT THIS IS LIKELY FAVORING THE WEST
SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THAT AREA BECAUSE AREA ON THE
EAST SIDE IS MUCH DRIER SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE MUCH
FURTHER NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SO SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT STORMS SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE MUCH MOISTURE. WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 BUT STILL EXPECT SOME 90S
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE THE FRONT HAS
NOT ARRIVED YET.

TONIGHT THE FRONT SAGS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TAP INTO MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS DEEPENS THE MOISTURE AND
INCREASES THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST BUT
STILL ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED STORMS. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN HAS THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BACKING AND THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING WHICH SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BECOMES MORE NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED WITH AN UPPER LOW BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 12Z SATURDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN IS
RELATIVELY UNDYNAMIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT COULD STILL SEE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY ABOVE A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. CERTAINLY SHOULD SEE
ELEVATED FAST MOVING STORMS SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD AGAIN BE
LIGHT. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER WEATHER ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS. THIS CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CAUSED BY
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
MAKE THE WEEKEND WEATHER VERY ACTIVE ACROSS MONTANA.

SATURDAY...TROUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS BECOMING
CLOSER WITH THE AXIS MOVING INTO EASTERN IDAHO 00Z SUNDAY. THIS
SETS UP DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA. GFS PROJECTING CAPES AROUND
1000J/KG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND AN INCH FROM BILLINGS
EAST. THE PWATS WERE 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE ECMWF
WAS EVEN SHOWING A LITTLE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH...WHICH
POTENTIALLY COULD DRAW IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG
FORCING WITH A 100KT JET KICKING INTO WYOMING SHOULD IGNITE
SHOWERS AND A THUNDESTORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY DRIFT NORTHEAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND EARLY IN THE
DAY...THUS LIMITING HEATING AND POTENTIAL SURFACE BASED CAPE.
ELEVATED CAPE WILL STILL BE THERE HOWEVER...SO NOT SURE INITIATION
WILL BE A CONCERN. RAISED POPS AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH RIPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
LEAVES BEHIND ZONAL FLOW. A SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40KTS OVER CENTRAL ZONES AND 45KTS OVER
THE EAST. SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY. SOME ASCENT PRESENT AND MAY
KEEP THESE WINDS FROM SURFACING...BUT THE GRADIENT ALONE SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EVENTS IN
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH MORE ENERGY
WRAPPING AROUND INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE WEAKER ECMWF WAVE OF MONDAY
NIGHT. EITHER WAY...ASCENT ARRIVES AND THUS RAISED POPS. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DRYING OUT DAY. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS THAT CROSSED WESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING KBIL...THIS MORNING ARE DIMINISHING AND SLOWLY
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST
FROM IDAHO INTO COOKE CITY AND TOWARD KLVM THROUGH THE MORNING.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
KBIL WEST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 052/073 053/074 049/066 043/070 045/070 046/073
    1/B 22/T    35/T    77/T    21/U    22/W    21/B
LVM 079 046/072 046/073 040/064 036/070 038/068 038/074
    2/T 34/T    45/T    86/T    21/B    22/W    21/B
HDN 085 053/079 053/078 049/070 043/072 044/072 044/075
    1/B 22/T    34/T    66/T    21/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 088 059/079 059/080 053/070 044/070 045/071 045/074
    1/B 22/T    44/T    66/T    32/W    11/B    11/B
4BQ 091 058/082 059/084 054/073 046/072 048/072 048/074
    0/B 12/T    33/T    43/T    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 092 059/083 059/080 053/072 045/069 043/070 045/072
    1/B 22/T    44/T    53/T    22/W    11/B    12/T
SHR 090 051/081 051/082 047/072 039/073 040/072 042/072
    1/B 22/T    34/T    63/T    11/U    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030958
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
358 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STALLED COLD FRONT ALONG THE MONTANA WYOMING BORDER THIS MORNING
WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TROUGH IS SWINGING EASTWARD
SLOWLY AND THIS IS INDUCING MINOR HEIGHT FALLS THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SPEED MAX PASSING OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING UNDER THIS ZONE BUT THIS IS LIKELY FAVORING THE WEST
SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THAT AREA BECAUSE AREA ON THE
EAST SIDE IS MUCH DRIER SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE MUCH
FURTHER NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SO SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT STORMS SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE MUCH MOISTURE. WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 BUT STILL EXPECT SOME 90S
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE THE FRONT HAS
NOT ARRIVED YET.

TONIGHT THE FRONT SAGS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TAP INTO MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS DEEPENS THE MOISTURE AND
INCREASES THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST BUT
STILL ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED STORMS. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN HAS THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BACKING AND THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING WHICH SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BECOMES MORE NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED WITH AN UPPER LOW BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 12Z SATURDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN IS
RELATIVELY UNDYNAMIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT COULD STILL SEE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY ABOVE A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. CERTAINLY SHOULD SEE
ELEVATED FAST MOVING STORMS SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD AGAIN BE
LIGHT. BORSUM


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER WEATHER ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS. THIS CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CAUSED BY
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
MAKE THE WEEKEND WEATHER VERY ACTIVE ACROSS MONTANA.

SATURDAY...TROUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS BECOMING
CLOSER WITH THE AXIS MOVING INTO EASTERN IDAHO 00Z SUNDAY. THIS
SETS UP DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA. GFS PROJECTING CAPES AROUND
1000J/KG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND AN INCH FROM BILLINGS
EAST. THE PWATS WERE 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE ECMWF
WAS EVEN SHOWING A LITTLE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH...WHICH
POTENTIALLY COULD DRAW IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG
FORCING WITH A 100KT JET KICKING INTO WYOMING SHOULD IGNITE
SHOWERS AND A THUNDESTORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY DRIFT NORTHEAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND EARLY IN THE
DAY...THUS LIMITING HEATING AND POTENTIAL SURFACE BASED CAPE.
ELEVATED CAPE WILL STILL BE THERE HOWEVER...SO NOT SURE INITIATION
WILL BE A CONCERN. RAISED POPS AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH RIPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
LEAVES BEHIND ZONAL FLOW. A SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40KTS OVER CENTRAL ZONES AND 45KTS OVER
THE EAST. SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY. SOME ASCENT PRESENT AND MAY
KEEP THESE WINDS FROM SURFACING...BUT THE GRADIENT ALONE SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EVENTS IN
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH MORE ENERGY
WRAPPING AROUND INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE WEAKER ECMWF WAVE OF MONDAY
NIGHT. EITHER WAY...ASCENT ARRIVES AND THUS RAISED POPS. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DRYING OUT DAY. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST FROM IDAHO
TOWARD KLVM EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM KBIL WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 052/073 053/074 049/066 043/070 045/070 046/073
    1/B 22/T    35/T    77/T    21/U    22/W    21/B
LVM 079 046/072 046/073 040/064 036/070 038/068 038/074
    2/T 34/T    45/T    86/T    21/B    22/W    21/B
HDN 085 053/079 053/078 049/070 043/072 044/072 044/075
    1/B 22/T    34/T    66/T    21/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 088 059/079 059/080 053/070 044/070 045/071 045/074
    1/B 22/T    44/T    66/T    32/W    11/B    11/B
4BQ 091 058/082 059/084 054/073 046/072 048/072 048/074
    0/B 12/T    33/T    43/T    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 092 059/083 059/080 053/072 045/069 043/070 045/072
    1/B 22/T    44/T    53/T    22/W    11/B    12/T
SHR 090 051/081 051/082 047/072 039/073 040/072 042/072
    1/B 22/T    34/T    63/T    11/U    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030958
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
358 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

STALLED COLD FRONT ALONG THE MONTANA WYOMING BORDER THIS MORNING
WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TROUGH IS SWINGING EASTWARD
SLOWLY AND THIS IS INDUCING MINOR HEIGHT FALLS THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK SPEED MAX PASSING OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING UNDER THIS ZONE BUT THIS IS LIKELY FAVORING THE WEST
SIDE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THAT AREA BECAUSE AREA ON THE
EAST SIDE IS MUCH DRIER SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE MUCH
FURTHER NORTHEAST. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SO SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT STORMS SHOULD NOT
PRODUCE MUCH MOISTURE. WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 BUT STILL EXPECT SOME 90S
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE THE FRONT HAS
NOT ARRIVED YET.

TONIGHT THE FRONT SAGS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO TAP INTO MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS DEEPENS THE MOISTURE AND
INCREASES THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST BUT
STILL ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED STORMS. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN HAS THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BACKING AND THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING WHICH SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BECOMES MORE NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED WITH AN UPPER LOW BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 12Z SATURDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN IS
RELATIVELY UNDYNAMIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT COULD STILL SEE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY ABOVE A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. CERTAINLY SHOULD SEE
ELEVATED FAST MOVING STORMS SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD AGAIN BE
LIGHT. BORSUM


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER WEATHER ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS. THIS CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CAUSED BY
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS WILL
MAKE THE WEEKEND WEATHER VERY ACTIVE ACROSS MONTANA.

SATURDAY...TROUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS BECOMING
CLOSER WITH THE AXIS MOVING INTO EASTERN IDAHO 00Z SUNDAY. THIS
SETS UP DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA. GFS PROJECTING CAPES AROUND
1000J/KG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND AN INCH FROM BILLINGS
EAST. THE PWATS WERE 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE ECMWF
WAS EVEN SHOWING A LITTLE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH...WHICH
POTENTIALLY COULD DRAW IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG
FORCING WITH A 100KT JET KICKING INTO WYOMING SHOULD IGNITE
SHOWERS AND A THUNDESTORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY DRIFT NORTHEAST.
LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND EARLY IN THE
DAY...THUS LIMITING HEATING AND POTENTIAL SURFACE BASED CAPE.
ELEVATED CAPE WILL STILL BE THERE HOWEVER...SO NOT SURE INITIATION
WILL BE A CONCERN. RAISED POPS AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR A
LARGE PART OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH RIPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
LEAVES BEHIND ZONAL FLOW. A SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40KTS OVER CENTRAL ZONES AND 45KTS OVER
THE EAST. SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDY DAY. SOME ASCENT PRESENT AND MAY
KEEP THESE WINDS FROM SURFACING...BUT THE GRADIENT ALONE SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF EVENTS IN
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH MORE ENERGY
WRAPPING AROUND INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE WEAKER ECMWF WAVE OF MONDAY
NIGHT. EITHER WAY...ASCENT ARRIVES AND THUS RAISED POPS. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DRYING OUT DAY. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST FROM IDAHO
TOWARD KLVM EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM KBIL WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 052/073 053/074 049/066 043/070 045/070 046/073
    1/B 22/T    35/T    77/T    21/U    22/W    21/B
LVM 079 046/072 046/073 040/064 036/070 038/068 038/074
    2/T 34/T    45/T    86/T    21/B    22/W    21/B
HDN 085 053/079 053/078 049/070 043/072 044/072 044/075
    1/B 22/T    34/T    66/T    21/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 088 059/079 059/080 053/070 044/070 045/071 045/074
    1/B 22/T    44/T    66/T    32/W    11/B    11/B
4BQ 091 058/082 059/084 054/073 046/072 048/072 048/074
    0/B 12/T    33/T    43/T    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 092 059/083 059/080 053/072 045/069 043/070 045/072
    1/B 22/T    44/T    53/T    22/W    11/B    12/T
SHR 090 051/081 051/082 047/072 039/073 040/072 042/072
    1/B 22/T    34/T    63/T    11/U    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030329
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
929 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING AND RHS ARE BEGINNING TO RECOVER
SLOWLY...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT FOR WESTERN FIRE WX ZONES THIS EVENING.

WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH OUR WEST WITH MODEST PRESSURE
RISES...NW WINDS AT JUDITH GAP AND A WEST WIND NOW AT BILLINGS. WE
WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF WIND WITH THE FROPA BUT INSTEAD A GRADUAL
VEERING OF WINDS AS COOLER AIR OOZES INTO OUR CWA FROM THE W-NW.
THERE ARE A FEW WEAK ECHOES SHOWING UP ON BLX RADAR NEAR MILES
CITY BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE ACCUS/VIRGA...AND PERHAPS A
SPRINKLE...RATHER THAN SHOWERS BASED ON TEMP-DEWPT SPREADS THAT
ARE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 DEGREES. HAVE GIVEN FORSYTH AND
MILES CITY A MENTION OF SPRINKLES THROUGH 06Z. OTHERWISE OUR WX
WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK ENERGY FROM THE SW MAKING ITS WAY TO OUR
SW MTNS BY LATE TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN FROM DOWNSLOPE TO
UPSLOPE...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD TS BASED ON STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FROM 09-18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

HIGH OF 102F AT MILES CITY WAS A RECORD FOR THE DAY...AND THE 9TH
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH OF 2015.

JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH KHVR AND KGTF AT 20Z...PER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S/80S...WIND SHIFT AND PRESSURE RISES. IT WAS HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S FROM KBIL E...AND THROUGH THE 80S W OF
KBIL. WINDS WERE INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...AND KLVM HAS BEEN HITTING RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH. WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT. A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED E OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH
TRENDS WITH THESE STORMS AND ADD THEM TO THE EVENING POP GRIDS IF
NEEDED.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SSE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WRF/GFS
DEVELOPED SOME QPF OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROFILES LOOKED TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE MT/NE WY
ON THU AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SW ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN SW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT AIRMASS CONTINUED TO LOOK MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE
INCREASING QPF TRENDS IN THE MODELS HOWEVER...DID EXPAND THE
WESTERN POPS A BIT FURTHER E. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S
W TO THE 90S SE NEAR THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE TEENS...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG SO
FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN.

MODELS SHOWED MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND
THEN SHIFTING N ON FRI. A STRONG WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE E
MT BORDER ON FRI...OTHERWISE WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. NE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THU NIGHT WILL BECOME E ON
FRI...AND MODELS INDICATED SOME CAPE AND SHEAR ON FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. KEPT SE MT DRY THU NIGHT
BASED ON DRIER AIR OVER THIS AREA...OTHERWISE CONTINUED LOW POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAD SOUTHERN AREAS DRY ON FRI MORNING THEN
BROUGHT LOW POPS BACK INTO THIS AREA FRI AFTERNOON AS THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR/N CA FRI NIGHT. JET
DIVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL E FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LATEST MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THE ECMWF IS TRENDING
QUICKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...BRINGING THE MOVEMENT OF A
TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF CIRCULATION PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY NOW EARLIER THAN THE GFS... SUPPORTED
BY GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH STILL HAS STRONG SPREAD SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT IS MORE OPTIMALLY TIMED FOR
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN THE GFS. THERE ARE STILL GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL BUT THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO
SOME PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. THIS IS
EMPHASIZED IN MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AS
STRONGLY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE ENDING.

BY MONDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DRY SW FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO WEDNESDAY. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN AREAS WILL GUST TO 30KTS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. CHAMBERS/REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/080 053/072 054/074 049/065 043/071 045/072 046/074
    01/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/080 046/072 046/073 040/063 036/072 038/073 038/076
    22/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 057/085 053/077 053/079 049/069 043/073 044/075 044/076
    01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 061/089 059/077 059/082 053/069 044/069 045/071 045/074
    01/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    42/W    11/B    11/B
4BQ 059/094 059/081 058/085 054/072 046/071 048/072 048/074
    00/B    12/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 060/093 059/081 057/075 053/071 045/068 043/070 045/072
    01/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    22/W    11/B    11/B
SHR 055/091 052/080 051/083 047/071 039/072 040/074 042/074
    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030329
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
929 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING AND RHS ARE BEGINNING TO RECOVER
SLOWLY...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT FOR WESTERN FIRE WX ZONES THIS EVENING.

WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH OUR WEST WITH MODEST PRESSURE
RISES...NW WINDS AT JUDITH GAP AND A WEST WIND NOW AT BILLINGS. WE
WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF WIND WITH THE FROPA BUT INSTEAD A GRADUAL
VEERING OF WINDS AS COOLER AIR OOZES INTO OUR CWA FROM THE W-NW.
THERE ARE A FEW WEAK ECHOES SHOWING UP ON BLX RADAR NEAR MILES
CITY BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE ACCUS/VIRGA...AND PERHAPS A
SPRINKLE...RATHER THAN SHOWERS BASED ON TEMP-DEWPT SPREADS THAT
ARE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 DEGREES. HAVE GIVEN FORSYTH AND
MILES CITY A MENTION OF SPRINKLES THROUGH 06Z. OTHERWISE OUR WX
WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK ENERGY FROM THE SW MAKING ITS WAY TO OUR
SW MTNS BY LATE TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN FROM DOWNSLOPE TO
UPSLOPE...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD TS BASED ON STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FROM 09-18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

HIGH OF 102F AT MILES CITY WAS A RECORD FOR THE DAY...AND THE 9TH
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH OF 2015.

JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH KHVR AND KGTF AT 20Z...PER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S/80S...WIND SHIFT AND PRESSURE RISES. IT WAS HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S FROM KBIL E...AND THROUGH THE 80S W OF
KBIL. WINDS WERE INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...AND KLVM HAS BEEN HITTING RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH. WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT. A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED E OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH
TRENDS WITH THESE STORMS AND ADD THEM TO THE EVENING POP GRIDS IF
NEEDED.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SSE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WRF/GFS
DEVELOPED SOME QPF OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROFILES LOOKED TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE MT/NE WY
ON THU AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SW ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN SW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT AIRMASS CONTINUED TO LOOK MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE
INCREASING QPF TRENDS IN THE MODELS HOWEVER...DID EXPAND THE
WESTERN POPS A BIT FURTHER E. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S
W TO THE 90S SE NEAR THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE TEENS...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG SO
FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN.

MODELS SHOWED MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND
THEN SHIFTING N ON FRI. A STRONG WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE E
MT BORDER ON FRI...OTHERWISE WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. NE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THU NIGHT WILL BECOME E ON
FRI...AND MODELS INDICATED SOME CAPE AND SHEAR ON FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. KEPT SE MT DRY THU NIGHT
BASED ON DRIER AIR OVER THIS AREA...OTHERWISE CONTINUED LOW POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAD SOUTHERN AREAS DRY ON FRI MORNING THEN
BROUGHT LOW POPS BACK INTO THIS AREA FRI AFTERNOON AS THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR/N CA FRI NIGHT. JET
DIVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL E FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LATEST MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THE ECMWF IS TRENDING
QUICKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...BRINGING THE MOVEMENT OF A
TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF CIRCULATION PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY NOW EARLIER THAN THE GFS... SUPPORTED
BY GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH STILL HAS STRONG SPREAD SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT IS MORE OPTIMALLY TIMED FOR
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN THE GFS. THERE ARE STILL GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL BUT THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO
SOME PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. THIS IS
EMPHASIZED IN MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AS
STRONGLY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE ENDING.

BY MONDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DRY SW FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO WEDNESDAY. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN AREAS WILL GUST TO 30KTS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. CHAMBERS/REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/080 053/072 054/074 049/065 043/071 045/072 046/074
    01/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/080 046/072 046/073 040/063 036/072 038/073 038/076
    22/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 057/085 053/077 053/079 049/069 043/073 044/075 044/076
    01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 061/089 059/077 059/082 053/069 044/069 045/071 045/074
    01/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    42/W    11/B    11/B
4BQ 059/094 059/081 058/085 054/072 046/071 048/072 048/074
    00/B    12/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 060/093 059/081 057/075 053/071 045/068 043/070 045/072
    01/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    22/W    11/B    11/B
SHR 055/091 052/080 051/083 047/071 039/072 040/074 042/074
    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030329
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
929 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING AND RHS ARE BEGINNING TO RECOVER
SLOWLY...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT FOR WESTERN FIRE WX ZONES THIS EVENING.

WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH OUR WEST WITH MODEST PRESSURE
RISES...NW WINDS AT JUDITH GAP AND A WEST WIND NOW AT BILLINGS. WE
WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF WIND WITH THE FROPA BUT INSTEAD A GRADUAL
VEERING OF WINDS AS COOLER AIR OOZES INTO OUR CWA FROM THE W-NW.
THERE ARE A FEW WEAK ECHOES SHOWING UP ON BLX RADAR NEAR MILES
CITY BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE ACCUS/VIRGA...AND PERHAPS A
SPRINKLE...RATHER THAN SHOWERS BASED ON TEMP-DEWPT SPREADS THAT
ARE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 DEGREES. HAVE GIVEN FORSYTH AND
MILES CITY A MENTION OF SPRINKLES THROUGH 06Z. OTHERWISE OUR WX
WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK ENERGY FROM THE SW MAKING ITS WAY TO OUR
SW MTNS BY LATE TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN FROM DOWNSLOPE TO
UPSLOPE...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD TS BASED ON STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FROM 09-18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

HIGH OF 102F AT MILES CITY WAS A RECORD FOR THE DAY...AND THE 9TH
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH OF 2015.

JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH KHVR AND KGTF AT 20Z...PER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S/80S...WIND SHIFT AND PRESSURE RISES. IT WAS HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S FROM KBIL E...AND THROUGH THE 80S W OF
KBIL. WINDS WERE INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...AND KLVM HAS BEEN HITTING RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH. WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT. A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED E OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH
TRENDS WITH THESE STORMS AND ADD THEM TO THE EVENING POP GRIDS IF
NEEDED.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SSE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WRF/GFS
DEVELOPED SOME QPF OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROFILES LOOKED TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE MT/NE WY
ON THU AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SW ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN SW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT AIRMASS CONTINUED TO LOOK MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE
INCREASING QPF TRENDS IN THE MODELS HOWEVER...DID EXPAND THE
WESTERN POPS A BIT FURTHER E. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S
W TO THE 90S SE NEAR THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE TEENS...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG SO
FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN.

MODELS SHOWED MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND
THEN SHIFTING N ON FRI. A STRONG WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE E
MT BORDER ON FRI...OTHERWISE WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. NE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THU NIGHT WILL BECOME E ON
FRI...AND MODELS INDICATED SOME CAPE AND SHEAR ON FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. KEPT SE MT DRY THU NIGHT
BASED ON DRIER AIR OVER THIS AREA...OTHERWISE CONTINUED LOW POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAD SOUTHERN AREAS DRY ON FRI MORNING THEN
BROUGHT LOW POPS BACK INTO THIS AREA FRI AFTERNOON AS THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR/N CA FRI NIGHT. JET
DIVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL E FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LATEST MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THE ECMWF IS TRENDING
QUICKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...BRINGING THE MOVEMENT OF A
TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF CIRCULATION PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY NOW EARLIER THAN THE GFS... SUPPORTED
BY GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH STILL HAS STRONG SPREAD SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT IS MORE OPTIMALLY TIMED FOR
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN THE GFS. THERE ARE STILL GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL BUT THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO
SOME PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. THIS IS
EMPHASIZED IN MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AS
STRONGLY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE ENDING.

BY MONDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DRY SW FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO WEDNESDAY. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN AREAS WILL GUST TO 30KTS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. CHAMBERS/REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/080 053/072 054/074 049/065 043/071 045/072 046/074
    01/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/080 046/072 046/073 040/063 036/072 038/073 038/076
    22/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 057/085 053/077 053/079 049/069 043/073 044/075 044/076
    01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 061/089 059/077 059/082 053/069 044/069 045/071 045/074
    01/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    42/W    11/B    11/B
4BQ 059/094 059/081 058/085 054/072 046/071 048/072 048/074
    00/B    12/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 060/093 059/081 057/075 053/071 045/068 043/070 045/072
    01/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    22/W    11/B    11/B
SHR 055/091 052/080 051/083 047/071 039/072 040/074 042/074
    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022104
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH KHVR AND KGTF AT 20Z...PER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S/80S...WIND SHIFT AND PRESSURE RISES. IT WAS HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S FROM KBIL E...AND THROUGH THE 80S W OF
KBIL. WINDS WERE INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...AND KLVM HAS BEEN HITTING RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH. WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT. A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED E OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH
TRENDS WITH THESE STORMS AND ADD THEM TO THE EVENING POP GRIDS IF
NEEDED.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SSE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WRF/GFS
DEVELOPED SOME QPF OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROFILES LOOKED TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE MT/NE WY
ON THU AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SW ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN SW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT AIRMASS CONTINUED TO LOOK MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE
INCREASING QPF TRENDS IN THE MODELS HOWEVER...DID EXPAND THE
WESTERN POPS A BIT FURTHER E. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S
W TO THE 90S SE NEAR THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE TEENS...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG SO
FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN.

MODELS SHOWED MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND
THEN SHIFTING N ON FRI. A STRONG WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE E
MT BORDER ON FRI...OTHERWISE WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. NE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THU NIGHT WILL BECOME E ON
FRI...AND MODELS INDICATED SOME CAPE AND SHEAR ON FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. KEPT SE MT DRY THU NIGHT
BASED ON DRIER AIR OVER THIS AREA...OTHERWISE CONTINUED LOW POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAD SOUTHERN AREAS DRY ON FRI MORNING THEN
BROUGHT LOW POPS BACK INTO THIS AREA FRI AFTERNOON AS THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR/N CA FRI NIGHT. JET
DIVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL E FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LATEST MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THE ECMWF IS TRENDING
TO BE QUICKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...BRINGING THE MOVEMENT OF A
TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF CIRCULATION PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY NOW EARLIER THAN THE GFS... SUPPORTED
BY GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH STILL HAS STRONG SPREAD SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT IS MORE OPTIMALLY TIMED FOR
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN THE GFS. THERE ARE STILL GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL BUT THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO
SOME PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. THIS IS
EMPHASIZED IN MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AS
STRONGLY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE ENDING.

BY MONDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DRY SW FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO WEDNESDAY. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY
EAST INTO THIS EVENING. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN AREAS
WILL GUST 30 TO 40KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY AFTER
06Z. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/080 053/072 054/074 049/065 043/071 045/072 046/074
    11/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/080 046/072 046/073 040/063 036/072 038/073 038/076
    12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 057/085 053/077 053/079 049/069 043/073 044/075 044/076
    01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 061/089 059/077 059/082 053/069 044/069 045/071 045/074
    11/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    42/W    11/B    11/B
4BQ 059/094 059/081 058/085 054/072 046/071 048/072 048/074
    00/B    12/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 059/093 059/081 057/075 053/071 045/068 043/070 045/072
    01/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    22/W    11/B    11/B
SHR 055/091 052/080 051/083 047/071 039/072 040/074 042/074
    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022104
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH KHVR AND KGTF AT 20Z...PER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S/80S...WIND SHIFT AND PRESSURE RISES. IT WAS HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S FROM KBIL E...AND THROUGH THE 80S W OF
KBIL. WINDS WERE INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...AND KLVM HAS BEEN HITTING RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH. WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT. A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED E OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH
TRENDS WITH THESE STORMS AND ADD THEM TO THE EVENING POP GRIDS IF
NEEDED.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SSE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WRF/GFS
DEVELOPED SOME QPF OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROFILES LOOKED TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE MT/NE WY
ON THU AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SW ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN SW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT AIRMASS CONTINUED TO LOOK MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE
INCREASING QPF TRENDS IN THE MODELS HOWEVER...DID EXPAND THE
WESTERN POPS A BIT FURTHER E. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S
W TO THE 90S SE NEAR THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE TEENS...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG SO
FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN.

MODELS SHOWED MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND
THEN SHIFTING N ON FRI. A STRONG WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE E
MT BORDER ON FRI...OTHERWISE WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. NE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THU NIGHT WILL BECOME E ON
FRI...AND MODELS INDICATED SOME CAPE AND SHEAR ON FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. KEPT SE MT DRY THU NIGHT
BASED ON DRIER AIR OVER THIS AREA...OTHERWISE CONTINUED LOW POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAD SOUTHERN AREAS DRY ON FRI MORNING THEN
BROUGHT LOW POPS BACK INTO THIS AREA FRI AFTERNOON AS THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR/N CA FRI NIGHT. JET
DIVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL E FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LATEST MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THE ECMWF IS TRENDING
TO BE QUICKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...BRINGING THE MOVEMENT OF A
TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF CIRCULATION PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY NOW EARLIER THAN THE GFS... SUPPORTED
BY GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH STILL HAS STRONG SPREAD SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT IS MORE OPTIMALLY TIMED FOR
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN THE GFS. THERE ARE STILL GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL BUT THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO
SOME PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. THIS IS
EMPHASIZED IN MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AS
STRONGLY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE ENDING.

BY MONDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DRY SW FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO WEDNESDAY. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY
EAST INTO THIS EVENING. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN AREAS
WILL GUST 30 TO 40KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY AFTER
06Z. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/080 053/072 054/074 049/065 043/071 045/072 046/074
    11/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/080 046/072 046/073 040/063 036/072 038/073 038/076
    12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 057/085 053/077 053/079 049/069 043/073 044/075 044/076
    01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 061/089 059/077 059/082 053/069 044/069 045/071 045/074
    11/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    42/W    11/B    11/B
4BQ 059/094 059/081 058/085 054/072 046/071 048/072 048/074
    00/B    12/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 059/093 059/081 057/075 053/071 045/068 043/070 045/072
    01/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    22/W    11/B    11/B
SHR 055/091 052/080 051/083 047/071 039/072 040/074 042/074
    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022104
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH KHVR AND KGTF AT 20Z...PER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S/80S...WIND SHIFT AND PRESSURE RISES. IT WAS HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S FROM KBIL E...AND THROUGH THE 80S W OF
KBIL. WINDS WERE INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...AND KLVM HAS BEEN HITTING RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH. WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT. A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED E OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH
TRENDS WITH THESE STORMS AND ADD THEM TO THE EVENING POP GRIDS IF
NEEDED.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SSE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WRF/GFS
DEVELOPED SOME QPF OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROFILES LOOKED TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE MT/NE WY
ON THU AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SW ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN SW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT AIRMASS CONTINUED TO LOOK MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE
INCREASING QPF TRENDS IN THE MODELS HOWEVER...DID EXPAND THE
WESTERN POPS A BIT FURTHER E. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S
W TO THE 90S SE NEAR THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE TEENS...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG SO
FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN.

MODELS SHOWED MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND
THEN SHIFTING N ON FRI. A STRONG WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE E
MT BORDER ON FRI...OTHERWISE WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. NE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THU NIGHT WILL BECOME E ON
FRI...AND MODELS INDICATED SOME CAPE AND SHEAR ON FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. KEPT SE MT DRY THU NIGHT
BASED ON DRIER AIR OVER THIS AREA...OTHERWISE CONTINUED LOW POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAD SOUTHERN AREAS DRY ON FRI MORNING THEN
BROUGHT LOW POPS BACK INTO THIS AREA FRI AFTERNOON AS THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR/N CA FRI NIGHT. JET
DIVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL E FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LATEST MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THE ECMWF IS TRENDING
TO BE QUICKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...BRINGING THE MOVEMENT OF A
TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF CIRCULATION PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY NOW EARLIER THAN THE GFS... SUPPORTED
BY GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH STILL HAS STRONG SPREAD SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT IS MORE OPTIMALLY TIMED FOR
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN THE GFS. THERE ARE STILL GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL BUT THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO
SOME PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. THIS IS
EMPHASIZED IN MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AS
STRONGLY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE ENDING.

BY MONDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DRY SW FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO WEDNESDAY. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY
EAST INTO THIS EVENING. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN AREAS
WILL GUST 30 TO 40KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY AFTER
06Z. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/080 053/072 054/074 049/065 043/071 045/072 046/074
    11/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/080 046/072 046/073 040/063 036/072 038/073 038/076
    12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 057/085 053/077 053/079 049/069 043/073 044/075 044/076
    01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 061/089 059/077 059/082 053/069 044/069 045/071 045/074
    11/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    42/W    11/B    11/B
4BQ 059/094 059/081 058/085 054/072 046/071 048/072 048/074
    00/B    12/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 059/093 059/081 057/075 053/071 045/068 043/070 045/072
    01/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    22/W    11/B    11/B
SHR 055/091 052/080 051/083 047/071 039/072 040/074 042/074
    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022104
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH KHVR AND KGTF AT 20Z...PER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S/80S...WIND SHIFT AND PRESSURE RISES. IT WAS HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S FROM KBIL E...AND THROUGH THE 80S W OF
KBIL. WINDS WERE INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...AND KLVM HAS BEEN HITTING RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH. WILL KEEP THE RFW GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT. A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED E OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH
TRENDS WITH THESE STORMS AND ADD THEM TO THE EVENING POP GRIDS IF
NEEDED.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SSE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WRF/GFS
DEVELOPED SOME QPF OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROFILES LOOKED TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE MT/NE WY
ON THU AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SW ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN SW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT AIRMASS CONTINUED TO LOOK MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE
INCREASING QPF TRENDS IN THE MODELS HOWEVER...DID EXPAND THE
WESTERN POPS A BIT FURTHER E. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S
W TO THE 90S SE NEAR THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE TEENS...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG SO
FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN.

MODELS SHOWED MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND
THEN SHIFTING N ON FRI. A STRONG WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE E
MT BORDER ON FRI...OTHERWISE WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. NE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THU NIGHT WILL BECOME E ON
FRI...AND MODELS INDICATED SOME CAPE AND SHEAR ON FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. KEPT SE MT DRY THU NIGHT
BASED ON DRIER AIR OVER THIS AREA...OTHERWISE CONTINUED LOW POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. HAD SOUTHERN AREAS DRY ON FRI MORNING THEN
BROUGHT LOW POPS BACK INTO THIS AREA FRI AFTERNOON AS THE INSTABILITY
SHOULD FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. FRI WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR/N CA FRI NIGHT. JET
DIVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL E FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

LATEST MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THE ECMWF IS TRENDING
TO BE QUICKER THAN WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...BRINGING THE MOVEMENT OF A
TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF CIRCULATION PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY NOW EARLIER THAN THE GFS... SUPPORTED
BY GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH STILL HAS STRONG SPREAD SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT IS MORE OPTIMALLY TIMED FOR
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN THE GFS. THERE ARE STILL GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL BUT THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO
SOME PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. THIS IS
EMPHASIZED IN MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AS
STRONGLY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE ENDING.

BY MONDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DRY SW FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO WEDNESDAY. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY
EAST INTO THIS EVENING. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN AREAS
WILL GUST 30 TO 40KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY AFTER
06Z. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/080 053/072 054/074 049/065 043/071 045/072 046/074
    11/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/080 046/072 046/073 040/063 036/072 038/073 038/076
    12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 057/085 053/077 053/079 049/069 043/073 044/075 044/076
    01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 061/089 059/077 059/082 053/069 044/069 045/071 045/074
    11/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    42/W    11/B    11/B
4BQ 059/094 059/081 058/085 054/072 046/071 048/072 048/074
    00/B    12/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 059/093 059/081 057/075 053/071 045/068 043/070 045/072
    01/B    22/T    44/T    55/T    22/W    11/B    11/B
SHR 055/091 052/080 051/083 047/071 039/072 040/074 042/074
    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021455
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
855 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
ADJUST SKY COVER THROUGH 18Z BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
SHOWED STREAKS OF HIGH CLOUD OVER THE AREA...AND TO ADJUST MORNING
WINDS TO FIT LATEST TRENDS.

RED FLAG WARNING WAS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE AS STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ZONES. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TO CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS C OVER THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S CENTRAL AND E WITH A
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH OF 100 DEGREES AT KMLS. THERE WILL BE SOME
CIRRUS AROUND...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO LOOK ON TRACK TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND PUSH SE THROUGH THU MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME HUNG UP OVER SE MT THU AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO SPREAD POPS
FURTHER E ON THU WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AN UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE FAR EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN
LOCATIONS BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS
AND UPPER YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. AS A
RESULT...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. WE ARE STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT WITH ITS ONLY
EFFECT BEING A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE A BIT EAST ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING SOME ENERGY TO APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWEST AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE WEST TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST. MILES CITYS RECORD
IS 100 AND THIS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS SHOWING AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH THE ECMWF ESPECIALLY MAKING
A TREND TO BE QUICKER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA
AND FAVORED TRACK PUTS A TROUGH WITH A MARGINAL CUTOFF CIRCULATION
PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ONE KEY CHANGE IS NOT OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINE UP USPLOPE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH A
PERIOD OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BUT THEY STILL WANT TO EJECT A GOOD
PERIOD OF LIFT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL HAS STRONG SPREADS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM LOWER 60S ON THE LOW END TO AROUND 80 ON
THE HIGH END WITH OPERATIONAL POP GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH END OF THE
ENSEMBLES.

FRIDAY UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS A CIRCULATION WITHIN IT DIGGING FROM
WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES SHOULD KEEP
THE AIRMASS STABLE BUT KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN
CASE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE.
MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY SATURDAY THEY
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THOUGH WENT FOR
LESS THUNDER WORDING. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD INDICATED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE BUT THATS A SPRING PATTERN SO NOT SURE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN LOWER LEVEL INVERSIONS BECAUSE
EARLY SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLES ARE CLOSER TO MID APRIL THAN MAY.
SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES
ALOFT BUT THAT IS WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS AT ITS COOLEST. STILL
GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL BUT SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BUT THE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO SOME PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. DO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW MENTIONED
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

MODELS NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
AND NORTHERN WYOMING QUITE AS STRONGLY AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ENDING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE DRY
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN ALTO CUMULUS LENTICULAR
CLOUDS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS
IMPACTING KLVM WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 059/081 054/072 052/068 049/063 044/072 044/077
    0/U 11/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 093 052/081 047/072 045/068 041/062 036/071 039/078
    0/N 12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/U
HDN 097 056/085 051/077 052/073 050/066 044/073 044/080
    0/B 01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
MLS 100 061/088 059/077 056/075 053/069 045/071 045/079
    0/U 11/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
4BQ 099 058/093 056/080 056/080 054/072 048/072 047/078
    0/U 00/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
BHK 098 056/093 057/080 055/076 054/072 043/069 043/077
    0/U 01/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
SHR 097 053/091 053/079 050/077 049/069 040/073 040/079
    0/U 01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021455
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
855 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
ADJUST SKY COVER THROUGH 18Z BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
SHOWED STREAKS OF HIGH CLOUD OVER THE AREA...AND TO ADJUST MORNING
WINDS TO FIT LATEST TRENDS.

RED FLAG WARNING WAS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE AS STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ZONES. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TO CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS C OVER THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S CENTRAL AND E WITH A
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH OF 100 DEGREES AT KMLS. THERE WILL BE SOME
CIRRUS AROUND...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO LOOK ON TRACK TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND PUSH SE THROUGH THU MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME HUNG UP OVER SE MT THU AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO SPREAD POPS
FURTHER E ON THU WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AN UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE FAR EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN
LOCATIONS BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS
AND UPPER YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. AS A
RESULT...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. WE ARE STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT WITH ITS ONLY
EFFECT BEING A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE A BIT EAST ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING SOME ENERGY TO APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWEST AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE WEST TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST. MILES CITYS RECORD
IS 100 AND THIS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS SHOWING AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH THE ECMWF ESPECIALLY MAKING
A TREND TO BE QUICKER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA
AND FAVORED TRACK PUTS A TROUGH WITH A MARGINAL CUTOFF CIRCULATION
PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ONE KEY CHANGE IS NOT OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINE UP USPLOPE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH A
PERIOD OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BUT THEY STILL WANT TO EJECT A GOOD
PERIOD OF LIFT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL HAS STRONG SPREADS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM LOWER 60S ON THE LOW END TO AROUND 80 ON
THE HIGH END WITH OPERATIONAL POP GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH END OF THE
ENSEMBLES.

FRIDAY UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS A CIRCULATION WITHIN IT DIGGING FROM
WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES SHOULD KEEP
THE AIRMASS STABLE BUT KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN
CASE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE.
MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY SATURDAY THEY
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THOUGH WENT FOR
LESS THUNDER WORDING. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD INDICATED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE BUT THATS A SPRING PATTERN SO NOT SURE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN LOWER LEVEL INVERSIONS BECAUSE
EARLY SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLES ARE CLOSER TO MID APRIL THAN MAY.
SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES
ALOFT BUT THAT IS WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS AT ITS COOLEST. STILL
GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL BUT SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BUT THE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO SOME PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. DO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW MENTIONED
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

MODELS NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
AND NORTHERN WYOMING QUITE AS STRONGLY AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ENDING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE DRY
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN ALTO CUMULUS LENTICULAR
CLOUDS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS
IMPACTING KLVM WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 059/081 054/072 052/068 049/063 044/072 044/077
    0/U 11/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 093 052/081 047/072 045/068 041/062 036/071 039/078
    0/N 12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/U
HDN 097 056/085 051/077 052/073 050/066 044/073 044/080
    0/B 01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
MLS 100 061/088 059/077 056/075 053/069 045/071 045/079
    0/U 11/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
4BQ 099 058/093 056/080 056/080 054/072 048/072 047/078
    0/U 00/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
BHK 098 056/093 057/080 055/076 054/072 043/069 043/077
    0/U 01/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
SHR 097 053/091 053/079 050/077 049/069 040/073 040/079
    0/U 01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021455
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
855 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
ADJUST SKY COVER THROUGH 18Z BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
SHOWED STREAKS OF HIGH CLOUD OVER THE AREA...AND TO ADJUST MORNING
WINDS TO FIT LATEST TRENDS.

RED FLAG WARNING WAS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE AS STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ZONES. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TO CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS C OVER THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S CENTRAL AND E WITH A
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH OF 100 DEGREES AT KMLS. THERE WILL BE SOME
CIRRUS AROUND...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO LOOK ON TRACK TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND PUSH SE THROUGH THU MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME HUNG UP OVER SE MT THU AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO SPREAD POPS
FURTHER E ON THU WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AN UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE FAR EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN
LOCATIONS BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS
AND UPPER YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. AS A
RESULT...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. WE ARE STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT WITH ITS ONLY
EFFECT BEING A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE A BIT EAST ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING SOME ENERGY TO APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWEST AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE WEST TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST. MILES CITYS RECORD
IS 100 AND THIS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS SHOWING AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH THE ECMWF ESPECIALLY MAKING
A TREND TO BE QUICKER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA
AND FAVORED TRACK PUTS A TROUGH WITH A MARGINAL CUTOFF CIRCULATION
PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ONE KEY CHANGE IS NOT OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINE UP USPLOPE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH A
PERIOD OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BUT THEY STILL WANT TO EJECT A GOOD
PERIOD OF LIFT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL HAS STRONG SPREADS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM LOWER 60S ON THE LOW END TO AROUND 80 ON
THE HIGH END WITH OPERATIONAL POP GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH END OF THE
ENSEMBLES.

FRIDAY UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS A CIRCULATION WITHIN IT DIGGING FROM
WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES SHOULD KEEP
THE AIRMASS STABLE BUT KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN
CASE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE.
MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY SATURDAY THEY
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THOUGH WENT FOR
LESS THUNDER WORDING. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD INDICATED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE BUT THATS A SPRING PATTERN SO NOT SURE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN LOWER LEVEL INVERSIONS BECAUSE
EARLY SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLES ARE CLOSER TO MID APRIL THAN MAY.
SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES
ALOFT BUT THAT IS WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS AT ITS COOLEST. STILL
GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL BUT SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BUT THE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO SOME PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. DO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW MENTIONED
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

MODELS NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
AND NORTHERN WYOMING QUITE AS STRONGLY AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ENDING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE DRY
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN ALTO CUMULUS LENTICULAR
CLOUDS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS
IMPACTING KLVM WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 059/081 054/072 052/068 049/063 044/072 044/077
    0/U 11/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 093 052/081 047/072 045/068 041/062 036/071 039/078
    0/N 12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/U
HDN 097 056/085 051/077 052/073 050/066 044/073 044/080
    0/B 01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
MLS 100 061/088 059/077 056/075 053/069 045/071 045/079
    0/U 11/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
4BQ 099 058/093 056/080 056/080 054/072 048/072 047/078
    0/U 00/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
BHK 098 056/093 057/080 055/076 054/072 043/069 043/077
    0/U 01/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
SHR 097 053/091 053/079 050/077 049/069 040/073 040/079
    0/U 01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021455
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
855 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
ADJUST SKY COVER THROUGH 18Z BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
SHOWED STREAKS OF HIGH CLOUD OVER THE AREA...AND TO ADJUST MORNING
WINDS TO FIT LATEST TRENDS.

RED FLAG WARNING WAS STILL IN GOOD SHAPE AS STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ZONES. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TO CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS C OVER THE AREA AND GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S CENTRAL AND E WITH A
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH OF 100 DEGREES AT KMLS. THERE WILL BE SOME
CIRRUS AROUND...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO LOOK ON TRACK TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND PUSH SE THROUGH THU MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME HUNG UP OVER SE MT THU AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO SPREAD POPS
FURTHER E ON THU WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AN UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE FAR EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN
LOCATIONS BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS
AND UPPER YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. AS A
RESULT...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. WE ARE STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT WITH ITS ONLY
EFFECT BEING A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE A BIT EAST ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING SOME ENERGY TO APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWEST AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE WEST TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST. MILES CITYS RECORD
IS 100 AND THIS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS SHOWING AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH THE ECMWF ESPECIALLY MAKING
A TREND TO BE QUICKER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA
AND FAVORED TRACK PUTS A TROUGH WITH A MARGINAL CUTOFF CIRCULATION
PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ONE KEY CHANGE IS NOT OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINE UP USPLOPE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH A
PERIOD OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BUT THEY STILL WANT TO EJECT A GOOD
PERIOD OF LIFT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL HAS STRONG SPREADS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM LOWER 60S ON THE LOW END TO AROUND 80 ON
THE HIGH END WITH OPERATIONAL POP GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH END OF THE
ENSEMBLES.

FRIDAY UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS A CIRCULATION WITHIN IT DIGGING FROM
WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES SHOULD KEEP
THE AIRMASS STABLE BUT KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN
CASE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE.
MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY SATURDAY THEY
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THOUGH WENT FOR
LESS THUNDER WORDING. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD INDICATED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE BUT THATS A SPRING PATTERN SO NOT SURE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN LOWER LEVEL INVERSIONS BECAUSE
EARLY SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLES ARE CLOSER TO MID APRIL THAN MAY.
SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES
ALOFT BUT THAT IS WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS AT ITS COOLEST. STILL
GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL BUT SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BUT THE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO SOME PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. DO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW MENTIONED
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

MODELS NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
AND NORTHERN WYOMING QUITE AS STRONGLY AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ENDING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE DRY
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN ALTO CUMULUS LENTICULAR
CLOUDS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS
IMPACTING KLVM WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 059/081 054/072 052/068 049/063 044/072 044/077
    0/U 11/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 093 052/081 047/072 045/068 041/062 036/071 039/078
    0/N 12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/U
HDN 097 056/085 051/077 052/073 050/066 044/073 044/080
    0/B 01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
MLS 100 061/088 059/077 056/075 053/069 045/071 045/079
    0/U 11/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
4BQ 099 058/093 056/080 056/080 054/072 048/072 047/078
    0/U 00/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
BHK 098 056/093 057/080 055/076 054/072 043/069 043/077
    0/U 01/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
SHR 097 053/091 053/079 050/077 049/069 040/073 040/079
    0/U 01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020958
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
358 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AN UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE FORECAST AREA. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
THE FAR EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN
LOCATIONS BUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS
AND UPPER YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. AS A
RESULT...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS DUE TO THE HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. WE ARE STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT WITH ITS ONLY
EFFECT BEING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE A BIT EAST ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING SOME ENERGY TO APPROACH OUR FAR NORTHWEST AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE WEST TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST. MILES CITYS RECORD
IS 100 AND THIS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS SHOWING AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH THE ECMWF ESPECIALLY MAKING
A TREND TO BE QUICKER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA
AND FAVORED TRACK PUTS A TROUGH WITH A MARGINAL CUTOFF CIRCULATION
PASSING FROM SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO NORTHEAST MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ONE KEY CHANGE IS NOT OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINE UP USPLOPE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA WITH A
PERIOD OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BUT THEY STILL WANT TO EJECT A GOOD
PERIOD OF LIFT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STILL HAS STRONG SPREADS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM LOWER 60S ON THE LOW END TO AROUND 80 ON
THE HIGH END WITH OPERATIONAL POP GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH END OF THE
ENSEMBLES.

FRIDAY UPSTREAM TROUGH HAS A CIRCULATION WITHIN IT DIGGING FROM
WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES SHOULD KEEP
THE AIRMASS STABLE BUT KEPT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN
CASE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE.
MOISTURE DEEPENS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND BY SATURDAY THEY
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THOUGH WENT FOR
LESS THUNDER WORDING. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD INDICATED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE BUT THATS A SPRING PATTERN SO NOT SURE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN LOWER LEVEL INVERSIONS BECAUSE
EARLY SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLES ARE CLOSER TO MID APRIL THAN MAY.
SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZES LAPSE RATES
ALOFT BUT THAT IS WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS AT ITS COOLEST. STILL
GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL BUT SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BUT THE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW COMPARED TO SOME PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS DOES LIMIT CONFIDENCE. DO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW MENTIONED
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

MODELS NOT FORCING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
AND NORTHERN WYOMING QUITE AS STRONGLY AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ENDING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE DRY
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN ALTO CUMULUS LENTICULAR
CLOUDS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS
IMPACTING KLVM WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 059/081 054/072 052/068 049/063 044/072 044/077
    0/U 11/B    22/T    35/T    66/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 093 052/081 047/072 045/068 041/062 036/071 039/078
    0/N 12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/B    11/U
HDN 097 056/085 051/077 052/073 050/066 044/073 044/080
    0/B 01/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
MLS 100 061/088 059/077 056/075 053/069 045/071 045/079
    0/U 11/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
4BQ 099 058/093 056/080 056/080 054/072 048/072 047/078
    0/B 00/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
BHK 098 056/093 057/080 055/076 054/072 043/069 043/077
    0/U 01/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/W    11/U
SHR 097 053/091 053/079 050/077 049/069 040/073 040/079
    0/B 01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020223
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
823 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS FOR THE UPDATE. THE CURRENT
LAV AND HRRR GUIDANCE FITS WITH THE TREND OF NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPED OVER THE BIGHORN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD.
REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE SLOWLY SE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG JET MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW TO THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THIS
SW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THU WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
AND ADVECTS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS KEPT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU MORNING...THEN CONTINUED THE LOW POPS OVER
THE FAR W INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. JET
DIVERGENCE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THU NIGHT IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME WHICH WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD...BUT LOW...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW MUCH QPF THE
REGION WOULD RECEIVE THU NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ON WED...MODELS STILL SHOWED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. KMLS WILL APPROACH THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 100
DEGREES. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A BIT HIGHER
VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL TO
E PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE N. IN GENERAL...MODELS SHOWED A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARED THE
BEST MIXING WOULD BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...THEN MIXING
WOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE
OVER KLVM INTO WHEATLAND COUNTY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL. PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE RFW LOOKS FINE FOR
NOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THU USHERING IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THU NIGHT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE FAR S AND SE ZONES LOOK TO
REMAIN WARM AND DRY ON THU AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS DOES NOT
REACH THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN THESE AREAS...BUT NOT
WINDY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER MONTANA. SOME SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY SLOW AND WOULD KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...THE
EURO...WHILE OTHERS ARE SLOW INITIALLY BUT THEN KICK OUT THE UPPER
TROUGH VERY QUICKLY...THE GFS/CANADIAN. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...FORECAST SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT CLEAR.
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND
WE SHOULD SEE ONE OR TWO COOL AND CLOUDY DAYS

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INCREASES IN THE BACKING
FLOW SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL HELP MOVE THE REST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS
WILL SEE GOOD RAIN CHANCES AS BETTER FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING...DUE TO A
DRYSLOT...COULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER OVER THE EAST.

FOR SATURDAY THE GFS INDICATES BETTER SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS IT IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN KEEP VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES OUT EAST AND AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WETTER. SEEING AS THE
MOST RECENT EURO MOVED CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WILL NOT BE
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS. LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COOL WHILE EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL BE SEASONABLE UNDER THE DRY
SLOT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND AS IT DEEPENS
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WRAPS UP. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
SOMETIME MONDAY ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN. DOBBS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT LIVINGSTON
WHERE WEST WINDS AT 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/093 058/078 051/070 049/065 048/062 045/072 046/078
    00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 053/089 050/077 045/068 043/065 044/059 039/072 040/078
    10/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
HDN 057/097 056/083 051/074 050/070 049/066 044/074 045/080
    00/B    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    31/U    11/U
MLS 059/099 060/086 056/075 053/071 051/071 044/071 045/078
    00/U    00/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
4BQ 058/099 058/091 056/079 054/073 053/074 048/071 048/078
    00/U    01/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
BHK 057/098 058/091 056/077 053/071 052/072 044/069 044/075
    00/U    00/B    12/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
SHR 054/096 055/088 050/077 048/073 047/069 041/073 042/079
    10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020223
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
823 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS FOR THE UPDATE. THE CURRENT
LAV AND HRRR GUIDANCE FITS WITH THE TREND OF NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPED OVER THE BIGHORN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD.
REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE SLOWLY SE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG JET MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW TO THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THIS
SW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THU WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
AND ADVECTS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS KEPT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU MORNING...THEN CONTINUED THE LOW POPS OVER
THE FAR W INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. JET
DIVERGENCE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THU NIGHT IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME WHICH WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD...BUT LOW...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW MUCH QPF THE
REGION WOULD RECEIVE THU NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ON WED...MODELS STILL SHOWED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. KMLS WILL APPROACH THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 100
DEGREES. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A BIT HIGHER
VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL TO
E PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE N. IN GENERAL...MODELS SHOWED A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARED THE
BEST MIXING WOULD BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...THEN MIXING
WOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE
OVER KLVM INTO WHEATLAND COUNTY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL. PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE RFW LOOKS FINE FOR
NOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THU USHERING IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THU NIGHT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE FAR S AND SE ZONES LOOK TO
REMAIN WARM AND DRY ON THU AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS DOES NOT
REACH THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN THESE AREAS...BUT NOT
WINDY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER MONTANA. SOME SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY SLOW AND WOULD KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...THE
EURO...WHILE OTHERS ARE SLOW INITIALLY BUT THEN KICK OUT THE UPPER
TROUGH VERY QUICKLY...THE GFS/CANADIAN. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...FORECAST SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT CLEAR.
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND
WE SHOULD SEE ONE OR TWO COOL AND CLOUDY DAYS

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INCREASES IN THE BACKING
FLOW SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL HELP MOVE THE REST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS
WILL SEE GOOD RAIN CHANCES AS BETTER FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING...DUE TO A
DRYSLOT...COULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER OVER THE EAST.

FOR SATURDAY THE GFS INDICATES BETTER SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS IT IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN KEEP VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES OUT EAST AND AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WETTER. SEEING AS THE
MOST RECENT EURO MOVED CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WILL NOT BE
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS. LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COOL WHILE EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL BE SEASONABLE UNDER THE DRY
SLOT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND AS IT DEEPENS
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WRAPS UP. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
SOMETIME MONDAY ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN. DOBBS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT LIVINGSTON
WHERE WEST WINDS AT 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/093 058/078 051/070 049/065 048/062 045/072 046/078
    00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 053/089 050/077 045/068 043/065 044/059 039/072 040/078
    10/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
HDN 057/097 056/083 051/074 050/070 049/066 044/074 045/080
    00/B    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    31/U    11/U
MLS 059/099 060/086 056/075 053/071 051/071 044/071 045/078
    00/U    00/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
4BQ 058/099 058/091 056/079 054/073 053/074 048/071 048/078
    00/U    01/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
BHK 057/098 058/091 056/077 053/071 052/072 044/069 044/075
    00/U    00/B    12/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
SHR 054/096 055/088 050/077 048/073 047/069 041/073 042/079
    10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020223
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
823 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS FOR THE UPDATE. THE CURRENT
LAV AND HRRR GUIDANCE FITS WITH THE TREND OF NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPED OVER THE BIGHORN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD.
REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE SLOWLY SE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG JET MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW TO THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THIS
SW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THU WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
AND ADVECTS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS KEPT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU MORNING...THEN CONTINUED THE LOW POPS OVER
THE FAR W INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. JET
DIVERGENCE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THU NIGHT IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME WHICH WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD...BUT LOW...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW MUCH QPF THE
REGION WOULD RECEIVE THU NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ON WED...MODELS STILL SHOWED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. KMLS WILL APPROACH THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 100
DEGREES. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A BIT HIGHER
VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL TO
E PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE N. IN GENERAL...MODELS SHOWED A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARED THE
BEST MIXING WOULD BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...THEN MIXING
WOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE
OVER KLVM INTO WHEATLAND COUNTY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL. PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE RFW LOOKS FINE FOR
NOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THU USHERING IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THU NIGHT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE FAR S AND SE ZONES LOOK TO
REMAIN WARM AND DRY ON THU AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS DOES NOT
REACH THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN THESE AREAS...BUT NOT
WINDY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER MONTANA. SOME SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY SLOW AND WOULD KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...THE
EURO...WHILE OTHERS ARE SLOW INITIALLY BUT THEN KICK OUT THE UPPER
TROUGH VERY QUICKLY...THE GFS/CANADIAN. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...FORECAST SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT CLEAR.
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND
WE SHOULD SEE ONE OR TWO COOL AND CLOUDY DAYS

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INCREASES IN THE BACKING
FLOW SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL HELP MOVE THE REST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS
WILL SEE GOOD RAIN CHANCES AS BETTER FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING...DUE TO A
DRYSLOT...COULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER OVER THE EAST.

FOR SATURDAY THE GFS INDICATES BETTER SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS IT IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN KEEP VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES OUT EAST AND AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WETTER. SEEING AS THE
MOST RECENT EURO MOVED CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WILL NOT BE
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS. LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COOL WHILE EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL BE SEASONABLE UNDER THE DRY
SLOT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND AS IT DEEPENS
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WRAPS UP. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
SOMETIME MONDAY ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN. DOBBS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT LIVINGSTON
WHERE WEST WINDS AT 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/093 058/078 051/070 049/065 048/062 045/072 046/078
    00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 053/089 050/077 045/068 043/065 044/059 039/072 040/078
    10/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
HDN 057/097 056/083 051/074 050/070 049/066 044/074 045/080
    00/B    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    31/U    11/U
MLS 059/099 060/086 056/075 053/071 051/071 044/071 045/078
    00/U    00/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
4BQ 058/099 058/091 056/079 054/073 053/074 048/071 048/078
    00/U    01/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
BHK 057/098 058/091 056/077 053/071 052/072 044/069 044/075
    00/U    00/B    12/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
SHR 054/096 055/088 050/077 048/073 047/069 041/073 042/079
    10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020223
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
823 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS FOR THE UPDATE. THE CURRENT
LAV AND HRRR GUIDANCE FITS WITH THE TREND OF NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPED OVER THE BIGHORN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD.
REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE SLOWLY SE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG JET MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW TO THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THIS
SW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THU WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
AND ADVECTS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS KEPT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU MORNING...THEN CONTINUED THE LOW POPS OVER
THE FAR W INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. JET
DIVERGENCE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THU NIGHT IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME WHICH WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD...BUT LOW...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW MUCH QPF THE
REGION WOULD RECEIVE THU NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ON WED...MODELS STILL SHOWED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. KMLS WILL APPROACH THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 100
DEGREES. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A BIT HIGHER
VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL TO
E PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE N. IN GENERAL...MODELS SHOWED A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARED THE
BEST MIXING WOULD BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...THEN MIXING
WOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE
OVER KLVM INTO WHEATLAND COUNTY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL. PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE RFW LOOKS FINE FOR
NOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THU USHERING IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THU NIGHT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE FAR S AND SE ZONES LOOK TO
REMAIN WARM AND DRY ON THU AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS DOES NOT
REACH THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN THESE AREAS...BUT NOT
WINDY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER MONTANA. SOME SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY SLOW AND WOULD KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...THE
EURO...WHILE OTHERS ARE SLOW INITIALLY BUT THEN KICK OUT THE UPPER
TROUGH VERY QUICKLY...THE GFS/CANADIAN. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...FORECAST SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT CLEAR.
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND
WE SHOULD SEE ONE OR TWO COOL AND CLOUDY DAYS

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INCREASES IN THE BACKING
FLOW SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL HELP MOVE THE REST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS
WILL SEE GOOD RAIN CHANCES AS BETTER FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING...DUE TO A
DRYSLOT...COULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER OVER THE EAST.

FOR SATURDAY THE GFS INDICATES BETTER SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS IT IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN KEEP VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES OUT EAST AND AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WETTER. SEEING AS THE
MOST RECENT EURO MOVED CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WILL NOT BE
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS. LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COOL WHILE EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL BE SEASONABLE UNDER THE DRY
SLOT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND AS IT DEEPENS
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WRAPS UP. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
SOMETIME MONDAY ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN. DOBBS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT LIVINGSTON
WHERE WEST WINDS AT 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/093 058/078 051/070 049/065 048/062 045/072 046/078
    00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 053/089 050/077 045/068 043/065 044/059 039/072 040/078
    10/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
HDN 057/097 056/083 051/074 050/070 049/066 044/074 045/080
    00/B    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    31/U    11/U
MLS 059/099 060/086 056/075 053/071 051/071 044/071 045/078
    00/U    00/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
4BQ 058/099 058/091 056/079 054/073 053/074 048/071 048/078
    00/U    01/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
BHK 057/098 058/091 056/077 053/071 052/072 044/069 044/075
    00/U    00/B    12/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
SHR 054/096 055/088 050/077 048/073 047/069 041/073 042/079
    10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 012044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE SLOWLY SE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG JET MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW TO THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THIS
SW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THU WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
AND ADVECTS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS KEPT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU MORNING...THEN CONTINUED THE LOW POPS OVER
THE FAR W INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. JET
DIVERGENCE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THU NIGHT IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME WHICH WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD...BUT LOW...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW MUCH QPF THE
REGION WOULD RECEIVE THU NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ON WED...MODELS STILL SHOWED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. KMLS WILL APPROACH THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 100
DEGREES. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A BIT HIGHER
VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL TO
E PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE N. IN GENERAL...MODELS SHOWED A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARED THE
BEST MIXING WOULD BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...THEN MIXING
WOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE
OVER KLVM INTO WHEATLAND COUNTY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL. PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE RFW LOOKS FINE FOR
NOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THU USHERING IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THU NIGHT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE FAR S AND SE ZONES LOOK TO
REMAIN WARM AND DRY ON THU AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS DOES NOT
REACH THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN THESE AREAS...BUT NOT
WINDY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER MONTANA. SOME SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY SLOW AND WOULD KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...THE
EURO...WHILE OTHERS ARE SLOW INITIALLY BUT THEN KICK OUT THE UPPER
TROUGH VERY QUICKLY...THE GFS/CANADIAN. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...FORECAST SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT CLEAR.
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND
WE SHOULD SEE ONE OR TWO COOL AND CLOUDY DAYS

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INCREASES IN THE BACKING
FLOW SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL HELP MOVE THE REST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS
WILL SEE GOOD RAIN CHANCES AS BETTER FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING...DUE TO A
DRY SLOT...COULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER OVER THE EAST.

FOR SATURDAY THE GFS INDICATES BETTER SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS IT IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN KEEP VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES OUT EAST AND AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WETTER. SEEING AS THE
MOST RECENT EURO MOVED CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WILL NOT BE
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS. LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COOL WHILE EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL BE SEASONABLE UNDER THE DRY
SLOT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND AS IT DEEPENS
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WRAPS UP. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
SOMETIME MONDAY ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN. DOBBS
&&

.AVIATION...

SOME GUSTY WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ARE IMPACTING AREA TERMINALS
AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT WINDS
AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KLVM TO CALM AROUND 00Z. KLVM WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED NEAR 15 KNOTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/093 058/078 051/070 049/065 048/062 045/072 046/078
    00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 053/089 050/077 045/068 043/065 044/059 039/072 040/078
    10/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
HDN 057/097 056/083 051/074 050/070 049/066 044/074 045/080
    00/B    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    31/U    11/U
MLS 059/099 060/086 056/075 053/071 051/071 044/071 045/078
    00/U    00/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
4BQ 058/099 058/091 056/079 054/073 053/074 048/071 048/078
    00/U    01/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
BHK 057/098 058/091 056/077 053/071 052/072 044/069 044/075
    00/U    00/B    12/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
SHR 054/096 055/088 050/077 048/073 047/069 041/073 042/079
    10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 012044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE SLOWLY SE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG JET MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW TO THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THIS
SW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THU WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY
AND ADVECTS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS KEPT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THU MORNING...THEN CONTINUED THE LOW POPS OVER
THE FAR W INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON. JET
DIVERGENCE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THU NIGHT IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME WHICH WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD...BUT LOW...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS WERE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW MUCH QPF THE
REGION WOULD RECEIVE THU NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ON WED...MODELS STILL SHOWED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. KMLS WILL APPROACH THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 100
DEGREES. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH A BIT HIGHER
VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL TO
E PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE N. IN GENERAL...MODELS SHOWED A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARED THE
BEST MIXING WOULD BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...THEN MIXING
WOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE
OVER KLVM INTO WHEATLAND COUNTY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL. PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE RFW LOOKS FINE FOR
NOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THU USHERING IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THU NIGHT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE FAR S AND SE ZONES LOOK TO
REMAIN WARM AND DRY ON THU AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS DOES NOT
REACH THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN THESE AREAS...BUT NOT
WINDY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER MONTANA. SOME SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY SLOW AND WOULD KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...THE
EURO...WHILE OTHERS ARE SLOW INITIALLY BUT THEN KICK OUT THE UPPER
TROUGH VERY QUICKLY...THE GFS/CANADIAN. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...FORECAST SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT CLEAR.
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND
WE SHOULD SEE ONE OR TWO COOL AND CLOUDY DAYS

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INCREASES IN THE BACKING
FLOW SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THIS WILL HELP MOVE THE REST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS
WILL SEE GOOD RAIN CHANCES AS BETTER FORCING ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING...DUE TO A
DRY SLOT...COULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER OVER THE EAST.

FOR SATURDAY THE GFS INDICATES BETTER SHOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS IT IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT.
MEANWHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN KEEP VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES OUT EAST AND AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WETTER. SEEING AS THE
MOST RECENT EURO MOVED CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN WILL NOT BE
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS. LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COOL WHILE EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL BE SEASONABLE UNDER THE DRY
SLOT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND AS IT DEEPENS
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS ALOFT SHOULD BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WRAPS UP. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
SOMETIME MONDAY ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN. DOBBS
&&

.AVIATION...

SOME GUSTY WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ARE IMPACTING AREA TERMINALS
AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT WINDS
AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KLVM TO CALM AROUND 00Z. KLVM WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED NEAR 15 KNOTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/093 058/078 051/070 049/065 048/062 045/072 046/078
    00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
LVM 053/089 050/077 045/068 043/065 044/059 039/072 040/078
    10/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    55/T    31/U    11/U
HDN 057/097 056/083 051/074 050/070 049/066 044/074 045/080
    00/B    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    31/U    11/U
MLS 059/099 060/086 056/075 053/071 051/071 044/071 045/078
    00/U    00/B    22/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
4BQ 058/099 058/091 056/079 054/073 053/074 048/071 048/078
    00/U    01/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
BHK 057/098 058/091 056/077 053/071 052/072 044/069 044/075
    00/U    00/B    12/T    45/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
SHR 054/096 055/088 050/077 048/073 047/069 041/073 042/079
    10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    21/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011528
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
928 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NOTHING TO UPDATE THIS MORNING. JET TO THE NW OF THE AREA WAS
PRODUCING SOME MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAINLY NW OF THE AREA ON
SATELLITE...SO LOOKING AT A SUNNY DAY UNDER WSW FLOW. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MIXING WILL BE BETWEEN
600-700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS TO SUPPORT THE
GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND TODAY BASED ON
WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

NEW WRF SOUNDINGS FOR WED INDICATED A HOT...DRY...WINDY DAY W OF
KBIL WHICH SUPPORTED THE RFW W OF KBIL IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

HOT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB RIDGING WILL BUILD ONCE
AGAIN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS AND UPPER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS...HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...WE HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MOST AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT SO WE WILL KEEP THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THURSDAY IS POST FRONTAL AND WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY SO WARM
SECTOR WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE. STILL MAY BE A BIT WARMER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
AS MODELS HINT AT FRONT STALLING A BIT. AIRMASS IS CAPPED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT IS UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ENERGY WORKING OUT OF
UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT THIS A BIT FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE BUT ONLY INCREMENTALLY AS ITS STILL A FAIRLY UNDYNAMIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY RIPPLES.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL BUT HOW COOL AND HOW WET AND WHERE IS NOT
EASY TO ANSWER GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS. EARLY ECMWF AND
GFS AND DIVERGED FROM LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS BUT TONIGHT THE ECMWF
IS GOING BACK TO A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. THE GFS AND UKMET
ARE THE FASTEST MOVING AND SHALLOWEST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST...AND THE CANADIAN IS SLOWER YET BUT DOES NOT
DIG THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF AND WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION. MODEL SPECTRUM GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS SO STILL TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ON THE AMOUNT OF
COOL DOWN AND WET POTENTIAL. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS LESS THAN
15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. BORSUM/DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 060/093 058/075 049/070 049/068 047/069 045/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
LVM 090 052/091 048/073 041/068 041/068 041/066 040/073
    0/U 00/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    54/T    22/W
HDN 093 057/096 055/081 048/074 050/072 047/071 044/075
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
MLS 093 060/099 060/083 053/077 053/072 049/069 046/074
    0/U 00/U    10/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
4BQ 093 059/098 059/087 053/079 054/072 050/072 048/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
BHK 090 055/097 058/086 053/079 053/073 049/071 046/072
    0/U 00/U    10/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
SHR 091 052/096 054/084 047/078 049/072 044/071 041/073
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011528
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
928 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NOTHING TO UPDATE THIS MORNING. JET TO THE NW OF THE AREA WAS
PRODUCING SOME MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAINLY NW OF THE AREA ON
SATELLITE...SO LOOKING AT A SUNNY DAY UNDER WSW FLOW. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MIXING WILL BE BETWEEN
600-700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS TO SUPPORT THE
GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND TODAY BASED ON
WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

NEW WRF SOUNDINGS FOR WED INDICATED A HOT...DRY...WINDY DAY W OF
KBIL WHICH SUPPORTED THE RFW W OF KBIL IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

HOT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB RIDGING WILL BUILD ONCE
AGAIN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS AND UPPER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS...HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...WE HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MOST AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT SO WE WILL KEEP THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THURSDAY IS POST FRONTAL AND WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY SO WARM
SECTOR WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE. STILL MAY BE A BIT WARMER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
AS MODELS HINT AT FRONT STALLING A BIT. AIRMASS IS CAPPED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT IS UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ENERGY WORKING OUT OF
UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT THIS A BIT FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE BUT ONLY INCREMENTALLY AS ITS STILL A FAIRLY UNDYNAMIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY RIPPLES.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL BUT HOW COOL AND HOW WET AND WHERE IS NOT
EASY TO ANSWER GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS. EARLY ECMWF AND
GFS AND DIVERGED FROM LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS BUT TONIGHT THE ECMWF
IS GOING BACK TO A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. THE GFS AND UKMET
ARE THE FASTEST MOVING AND SHALLOWEST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST...AND THE CANADIAN IS SLOWER YET BUT DOES NOT
DIG THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF AND WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION. MODEL SPECTRUM GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS SO STILL TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ON THE AMOUNT OF
COOL DOWN AND WET POTENTIAL. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS LESS THAN
15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. BORSUM/DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 060/093 058/075 049/070 049/068 047/069 045/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
LVM 090 052/091 048/073 041/068 041/068 041/066 040/073
    0/U 00/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    54/T    22/W
HDN 093 057/096 055/081 048/074 050/072 047/071 044/075
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
MLS 093 060/099 060/083 053/077 053/072 049/069 046/074
    0/U 00/U    10/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
4BQ 093 059/098 059/087 053/079 054/072 050/072 048/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
BHK 090 055/097 058/086 053/079 053/073 049/071 046/072
    0/U 00/U    10/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
SHR 091 052/096 054/084 047/078 049/072 044/071 041/073
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011528
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
928 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NOTHING TO UPDATE THIS MORNING. JET TO THE NW OF THE AREA WAS
PRODUCING SOME MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAINLY NW OF THE AREA ON
SATELLITE...SO LOOKING AT A SUNNY DAY UNDER WSW FLOW. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MIXING WILL BE BETWEEN
600-700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS TO SUPPORT THE
GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND TODAY BASED ON
WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

NEW WRF SOUNDINGS FOR WED INDICATED A HOT...DRY...WINDY DAY W OF
KBIL WHICH SUPPORTED THE RFW W OF KBIL IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

HOT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB RIDGING WILL BUILD ONCE
AGAIN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS AND UPPER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS...HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...WE HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MOST AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT SO WE WILL KEEP THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THURSDAY IS POST FRONTAL AND WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY SO WARM
SECTOR WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE. STILL MAY BE A BIT WARMER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
AS MODELS HINT AT FRONT STALLING A BIT. AIRMASS IS CAPPED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT IS UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ENERGY WORKING OUT OF
UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT THIS A BIT FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE BUT ONLY INCREMENTALLY AS ITS STILL A FAIRLY UNDYNAMIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY RIPPLES.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL BUT HOW COOL AND HOW WET AND WHERE IS NOT
EASY TO ANSWER GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS. EARLY ECMWF AND
GFS AND DIVERGED FROM LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS BUT TONIGHT THE ECMWF
IS GOING BACK TO A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. THE GFS AND UKMET
ARE THE FASTEST MOVING AND SHALLOWEST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST...AND THE CANADIAN IS SLOWER YET BUT DOES NOT
DIG THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF AND WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION. MODEL SPECTRUM GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS SO STILL TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ON THE AMOUNT OF
COOL DOWN AND WET POTENTIAL. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS LESS THAN
15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. BORSUM/DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 060/093 058/075 049/070 049/068 047/069 045/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
LVM 090 052/091 048/073 041/068 041/068 041/066 040/073
    0/U 00/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    54/T    22/W
HDN 093 057/096 055/081 048/074 050/072 047/071 044/075
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
MLS 093 060/099 060/083 053/077 053/072 049/069 046/074
    0/U 00/U    10/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
4BQ 093 059/098 059/087 053/079 054/072 050/072 048/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
BHK 090 055/097 058/086 053/079 053/073 049/071 046/072
    0/U 00/U    10/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
SHR 091 052/096 054/084 047/078 049/072 044/071 041/073
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011528
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
928 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NOTHING TO UPDATE THIS MORNING. JET TO THE NW OF THE AREA WAS
PRODUCING SOME MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAINLY NW OF THE AREA ON
SATELLITE...SO LOOKING AT A SUNNY DAY UNDER WSW FLOW. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MIXING WILL BE BETWEEN
600-700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS TO SUPPORT THE
GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND TODAY BASED ON
WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

NEW WRF SOUNDINGS FOR WED INDICATED A HOT...DRY...WINDY DAY W OF
KBIL WHICH SUPPORTED THE RFW W OF KBIL IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

HOT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB RIDGING WILL BUILD ONCE
AGAIN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS AND UPPER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS...HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...WE HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MOST AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT SO WE WILL KEEP THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THURSDAY IS POST FRONTAL AND WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY SO WARM
SECTOR WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE. STILL MAY BE A BIT WARMER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
AS MODELS HINT AT FRONT STALLING A BIT. AIRMASS IS CAPPED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT IS UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ENERGY WORKING OUT OF
UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT THIS A BIT FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE BUT ONLY INCREMENTALLY AS ITS STILL A FAIRLY UNDYNAMIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY RIPPLES.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL BUT HOW COOL AND HOW WET AND WHERE IS NOT
EASY TO ANSWER GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS. EARLY ECMWF AND
GFS AND DIVERGED FROM LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS BUT TONIGHT THE ECMWF
IS GOING BACK TO A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. THE GFS AND UKMET
ARE THE FASTEST MOVING AND SHALLOWEST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST...AND THE CANADIAN IS SLOWER YET BUT DOES NOT
DIG THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF AND WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION. MODEL SPECTRUM GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS SO STILL TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ON THE AMOUNT OF
COOL DOWN AND WET POTENTIAL. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS LESS THAN
15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. BORSUM/DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 060/093 058/075 049/070 049/068 047/069 045/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
LVM 090 052/091 048/073 041/068 041/068 041/066 040/073
    0/U 00/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    54/T    22/W
HDN 093 057/096 055/081 048/074 050/072 047/071 044/075
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
MLS 093 060/099 060/083 053/077 053/072 049/069 046/074
    0/U 00/U    10/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
4BQ 093 059/098 059/087 053/079 054/072 050/072 048/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
BHK 090 055/097 058/086 053/079 053/073 049/071 046/072
    0/U 00/U    10/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
SHR 091 052/096 054/084 047/078 049/072 044/071 041/073
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010959
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
359 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

HOT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB RIDGING WILL BUILD ONCE
AGAIN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS AND UPPER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS...HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...WE HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MOST AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT SO WE WILL KEEP THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THURSDAY IS POST FRONTAL AND WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY SO WARM
SECTOR WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE. STILL MAY BE A BIT WARMER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
AS MODELS HINT AT FRONT STALLING A BIT. AIRMASS IS CAPPED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT IS UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ENERGY WORKING OUT OF
UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT THIS A BIT FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE BUT ONLY INCREMENTALLY AS ITS STILL A FAIRLY UNDYNAMIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY RIPPLES.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL BUT HOW COOL AND HOW WET AND WHERE IS NOT
EASY TO ANSWER GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS. EARLY ECMWF AND
GFS AND DIVERGED FROM LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS BUT TONIGHT THE ECMWF
IS GOING BACK TO A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. THE GFS AND UKMET
ARE THE FASTEST MOVING AND SHALLOWEST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST...AND THE CANADIAN IS SLOWER YET BUT DOES NOT
DIG THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF AND WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION. MODEL SPECTRUM GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS SO STILL TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ON THE AMOUNT OF
COOL DOWN AND WET POTENTIAL. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS LESS THAN
20 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 060/093 058/075 049/070 049/068 047/069 045/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
LVM 090 052/091 048/073 041/068 041/068 041/066 040/073
    0/U 00/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    54/T    22/W
HDN 093 057/096 055/081 048/074 050/072 047/071 044/075
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
MLS 093 060/099 060/083 053/077 053/072 049/069 046/074
    0/U 00/U    10/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
4BQ 093 059/098 059/087 053/079 054/072 050/072 048/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
BHK 090 055/097 058/086 053/079 053/073 049/071 046/072
    0/U 00/U    10/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
SHR 091 052/096 054/084 047/078 049/072 044/071 041/073
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010959
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
359 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

HOT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB RIDGING WILL BUILD ONCE
AGAIN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS AND UPPER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS...HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...WE HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MOST AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT SO WE WILL KEEP THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THURSDAY IS POST FRONTAL AND WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY SO WARM
SECTOR WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE. STILL MAY BE A BIT WARMER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
AS MODELS HINT AT FRONT STALLING A BIT. AIRMASS IS CAPPED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT IS UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ENERGY WORKING OUT OF
UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT THIS A BIT FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE BUT ONLY INCREMENTALLY AS ITS STILL A FAIRLY UNDYNAMIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY RIPPLES.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL BUT HOW COOL AND HOW WET AND WHERE IS NOT
EASY TO ANSWER GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS. EARLY ECMWF AND
GFS AND DIVERGED FROM LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS BUT TONIGHT THE ECMWF
IS GOING BACK TO A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. THE GFS AND UKMET
ARE THE FASTEST MOVING AND SHALLOWEST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST...AND THE CANADIAN IS SLOWER YET BUT DOES NOT
DIG THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF AND WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION. MODEL SPECTRUM GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS SO STILL TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ON THE AMOUNT OF
COOL DOWN AND WET POTENTIAL. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS LESS THAN
20 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 060/093 058/075 049/070 049/068 047/069 045/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
LVM 090 052/091 048/073 041/068 041/068 041/066 040/073
    0/U 00/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    54/T    22/W
HDN 093 057/096 055/081 048/074 050/072 047/071 044/075
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
MLS 093 060/099 060/083 053/077 053/072 049/069 046/074
    0/U 00/U    10/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
4BQ 093 059/098 059/087 053/079 054/072 050/072 048/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
BHK 090 055/097 058/086 053/079 053/073 049/071 046/072
    0/U 00/U    10/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
SHR 091 052/096 054/084 047/078 049/072 044/071 041/073
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010240
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS REMAINED A BIT GUSTY AROUND LIVINGSTON EARLIER THIS EVENING
BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING AS THE MIXING HAS DISSIPATED. GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERNIGHT...NO UPDATE NEEDED. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

THE WEATHER WILL TURN VERY WARM AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL DEEPEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. DEEP MONSOON FLOW WILL BE
DEFLECTED INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH MOST
OF THE AREA HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATERS BELOW SEVEN TENTHS. MIXING
THIS RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMEST POTENTIAL DAY BEING
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH JUST A
WIND SHIFT...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL SEE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT MIXING WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL MIX DOWN WINDS WILL BE WEST OF
COLUMBUS AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY.
COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE MODEL TRENDS ON THIS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT MODELS WERE NOT ADVERTISING A BIG WIND SHIFT EVENT
FOR THIS FRONT AT THIS POINT. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

FAIRLY COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
IN THE HANDLING OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST. REGARDLESS OF THE THE EVENTUAL SOLUTION, WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

BOTH MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD COOL CONDITIONS
INTO THE UPPER 70S BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM SLOWER
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PACIFIC TROUGH
QUICKLY EMERGE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTER
SOLUTION AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE EURO REMAINS SLOWER AND PUSHES A WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME MONDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES THE EURO REFLECTS THIS
TREND WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO 00Z RUN. BECAUSE
OF WILDLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST. FOR THIS UPDATE USED A BLEND OF THE PRIOR
FORECAST AND NEW CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WITH A LITTLE BIT STRONGER
WEIGHTING OF THE GFS...WHICH HAD BETTER CONSISTENCY.

IN ANY SCENARIO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MOISTURE
CONTENT ALSO WILL BE GOOD WITH ENSEMBLE PWATS AT LEAST 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. OCCASIONAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PWATS...SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON MANY FOLKS OUTDOOR
PLANS SO WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUTTING OUT
HIGHLIGHTS ON THIS SYSTEM. DOBBS


&&

.AVIATION...

NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED...VFR WILL CONDITION PREVAIL. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/090 060/091 056/077 050/073 049/064 045/067 043/071
    00/K    00/B    12/T    22/T    34/T    42/T    21/U
LVM 046/091 052/087 048/073 042/071 043/066 039/065 037/071
    00/K    10/N    14/T    43/T    44/T    43/T    31/U
HDN 053/093 057/096 055/082 051/076 051/069 046/069 043/073
    00/U    10/B    02/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    21/U
MLS 055/093 060/098 059/083 055/079 055/072 048/066 043/071
    00/U    00/B    02/T    22/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
4BQ 055/093 059/098 059/088 056/080 056/073 050/067 045/070
    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/T    44/T    33/T    21/U
BHK 053/091 056/098 059/086 056/080 054/071 049/065 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
SHR 047/092 053/094 053/084 050/078 049/071 045/067 039/071
    00/U    10/B    11/B    12/T    23/T    33/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010240
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS REMAINED A BIT GUSTY AROUND LIVINGSTON EARLIER THIS EVENING
BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING AS THE MIXING HAS DISSIPATED. GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERNIGHT...NO UPDATE NEEDED. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

THE WEATHER WILL TURN VERY WARM AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL DEEPEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. DEEP MONSOON FLOW WILL BE
DEFLECTED INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH MOST
OF THE AREA HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATERS BELOW SEVEN TENTHS. MIXING
THIS RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMEST POTENTIAL DAY BEING
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH JUST A
WIND SHIFT...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL SEE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT MIXING WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL MIX DOWN WINDS WILL BE WEST OF
COLUMBUS AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY.
COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE MODEL TRENDS ON THIS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT MODELS WERE NOT ADVERTISING A BIG WIND SHIFT EVENT
FOR THIS FRONT AT THIS POINT. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

FAIRLY COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
IN THE HANDLING OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST. REGARDLESS OF THE THE EVENTUAL SOLUTION, WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

BOTH MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD COOL CONDITIONS
INTO THE UPPER 70S BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM SLOWER
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PACIFIC TROUGH
QUICKLY EMERGE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTER
SOLUTION AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE EURO REMAINS SLOWER AND PUSHES A WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME MONDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES THE EURO REFLECTS THIS
TREND WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO 00Z RUN. BECAUSE
OF WILDLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST. FOR THIS UPDATE USED A BLEND OF THE PRIOR
FORECAST AND NEW CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WITH A LITTLE BIT STRONGER
WEIGHTING OF THE GFS...WHICH HAD BETTER CONSISTENCY.

IN ANY SCENARIO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MOISTURE
CONTENT ALSO WILL BE GOOD WITH ENSEMBLE PWATS AT LEAST 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. OCCASIONAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PWATS...SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON MANY FOLKS OUTDOOR
PLANS SO WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUTTING OUT
HIGHLIGHTS ON THIS SYSTEM. DOBBS


&&

.AVIATION...

NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED...VFR WILL CONDITION PREVAIL. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/090 060/091 056/077 050/073 049/064 045/067 043/071
    00/K    00/B    12/T    22/T    34/T    42/T    21/U
LVM 046/091 052/087 048/073 042/071 043/066 039/065 037/071
    00/K    10/N    14/T    43/T    44/T    43/T    31/U
HDN 053/093 057/096 055/082 051/076 051/069 046/069 043/073
    00/U    10/B    02/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    21/U
MLS 055/093 060/098 059/083 055/079 055/072 048/066 043/071
    00/U    00/B    02/T    22/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
4BQ 055/093 059/098 059/088 056/080 056/073 050/067 045/070
    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/T    44/T    33/T    21/U
BHK 053/091 056/098 059/086 056/080 054/071 049/065 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
SHR 047/092 053/094 053/084 050/078 049/071 045/067 039/071
    00/U    10/B    11/B    12/T    23/T    33/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010240
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS REMAINED A BIT GUSTY AROUND LIVINGSTON EARLIER THIS EVENING
BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING AS THE MIXING HAS DISSIPATED. GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERNIGHT...NO UPDATE NEEDED. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

THE WEATHER WILL TURN VERY WARM AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL DEEPEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. DEEP MONSOON FLOW WILL BE
DEFLECTED INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH MOST
OF THE AREA HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATERS BELOW SEVEN TENTHS. MIXING
THIS RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMEST POTENTIAL DAY BEING
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH JUST A
WIND SHIFT...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL SEE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT MIXING WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL MIX DOWN WINDS WILL BE WEST OF
COLUMBUS AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY.
COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE MODEL TRENDS ON THIS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT MODELS WERE NOT ADVERTISING A BIG WIND SHIFT EVENT
FOR THIS FRONT AT THIS POINT. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

FAIRLY COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
IN THE HANDLING OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST. REGARDLESS OF THE THE EVENTUAL SOLUTION, WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

BOTH MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD COOL CONDITIONS
INTO THE UPPER 70S BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM SLOWER
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PACIFIC TROUGH
QUICKLY EMERGE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTER
SOLUTION AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE EURO REMAINS SLOWER AND PUSHES A WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME MONDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES THE EURO REFLECTS THIS
TREND WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO 00Z RUN. BECAUSE
OF WILDLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST. FOR THIS UPDATE USED A BLEND OF THE PRIOR
FORECAST AND NEW CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WITH A LITTLE BIT STRONGER
WEIGHTING OF THE GFS...WHICH HAD BETTER CONSISTENCY.

IN ANY SCENARIO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MOISTURE
CONTENT ALSO WILL BE GOOD WITH ENSEMBLE PWATS AT LEAST 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. OCCASIONAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PWATS...SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON MANY FOLKS OUTDOOR
PLANS SO WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUTTING OUT
HIGHLIGHTS ON THIS SYSTEM. DOBBS


&&

.AVIATION...

NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED...VFR WILL CONDITION PREVAIL. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/090 060/091 056/077 050/073 049/064 045/067 043/071
    00/K    00/B    12/T    22/T    34/T    42/T    21/U
LVM 046/091 052/087 048/073 042/071 043/066 039/065 037/071
    00/K    10/N    14/T    43/T    44/T    43/T    31/U
HDN 053/093 057/096 055/082 051/076 051/069 046/069 043/073
    00/U    10/B    02/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    21/U
MLS 055/093 060/098 059/083 055/079 055/072 048/066 043/071
    00/U    00/B    02/T    22/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
4BQ 055/093 059/098 059/088 056/080 056/073 050/067 045/070
    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/T    44/T    33/T    21/U
BHK 053/091 056/098 059/086 056/080 054/071 049/065 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
SHR 047/092 053/094 053/084 050/078 049/071 045/067 039/071
    00/U    10/B    11/B    12/T    23/T    33/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010240
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS REMAINED A BIT GUSTY AROUND LIVINGSTON EARLIER THIS EVENING
BUT HAVE BEEN DECREASING AS THE MIXING HAS DISSIPATED. GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERNIGHT...NO UPDATE NEEDED. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

THE WEATHER WILL TURN VERY WARM AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL DEEPEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. DEEP MONSOON FLOW WILL BE
DEFLECTED INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH MOST
OF THE AREA HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATERS BELOW SEVEN TENTHS. MIXING
THIS RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMEST POTENTIAL DAY BEING
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH JUST A
WIND SHIFT...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL SEE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT MIXING WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL MIX DOWN WINDS WILL BE WEST OF
COLUMBUS AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY.
COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE MODEL TRENDS ON THIS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT MODELS WERE NOT ADVERTISING A BIG WIND SHIFT EVENT
FOR THIS FRONT AT THIS POINT. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

FAIRLY COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
IN THE HANDLING OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST. REGARDLESS OF THE THE EVENTUAL SOLUTION, WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

BOTH MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD COOL CONDITIONS
INTO THE UPPER 70S BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM SLOWER
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PACIFIC TROUGH
QUICKLY EMERGE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTER
SOLUTION AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE EURO REMAINS SLOWER AND PUSHES A WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME MONDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES THE EURO REFLECTS THIS
TREND WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO 00Z RUN. BECAUSE
OF WILDLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST. FOR THIS UPDATE USED A BLEND OF THE PRIOR
FORECAST AND NEW CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WITH A LITTLE BIT STRONGER
WEIGHTING OF THE GFS...WHICH HAD BETTER CONSISTENCY.

IN ANY SCENARIO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MOISTURE
CONTENT ALSO WILL BE GOOD WITH ENSEMBLE PWATS AT LEAST 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. OCCASIONAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PWATS...SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON MANY FOLKS OUTDOOR
PLANS SO WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUTTING OUT
HIGHLIGHTS ON THIS SYSTEM. DOBBS


&&

.AVIATION...

NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED...VFR WILL CONDITION PREVAIL. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/090 060/091 056/077 050/073 049/064 045/067 043/071
    00/K    00/B    12/T    22/T    34/T    42/T    21/U
LVM 046/091 052/087 048/073 042/071 043/066 039/065 037/071
    00/K    10/N    14/T    43/T    44/T    43/T    31/U
HDN 053/093 057/096 055/082 051/076 051/069 046/069 043/073
    00/U    10/B    02/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    21/U
MLS 055/093 060/098 059/083 055/079 055/072 048/066 043/071
    00/U    00/B    02/T    22/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
4BQ 055/093 059/098 059/088 056/080 056/073 050/067 045/070
    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/T    44/T    33/T    21/U
BHK 053/091 056/098 059/086 056/080 054/071 049/065 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
SHR 047/092 053/094 053/084 050/078 049/071 045/067 039/071
    00/U    10/B    11/B    12/T    23/T    33/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 312122
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

THE WEATHER WILL TURN VERY WARM AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL DEEPEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. DEEP MONSOON FLOW WILL BE
DEFLECTED INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH MOST
OF THE AREA HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATERS BELOW SEVEN TENTHS. MIXING
THIS RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMEST POTENTIAL DAY BEING
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH JUST A
WIND SHIFT...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL SEE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT MIXING WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL MIX DOWN WINDS WILL BE WEST OF
COLUMBUS AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY.
COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE MODEL TRENDS ON THIS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT MODELS WERE NOT ADVERTISING A BIG WIND SHIFT EVENT
FOR THIS FRONT AT THIS POINT. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

FAIRLY COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
IN THE HANDLING OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST. REGARDLESS OF THE THE EVENTUAL SOLUTION, WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

BOTH MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD COOL CONDITIONS
INTO THE UPPER 70S BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM SLOWER
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PACIFIC TROUGH
QUICKLY EMERGE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTER
SOLUTION AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE EURO REMAINS SLOWER AND PUSHES A WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME MONDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES THE EURO REFLECTS THIS
TREND WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO 00Z RUN. BECAUSE
OF WILDLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST. FOR THIS UPDATE USED A BLEND OF THE PRIOR
FORECAST AND NEW CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WITH A LITTLE BIT STRONGER
WEIGHTING OF THE GFS...WHICH HAD BETTER CONSISTENCY.

IN ANY SCENARIO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MOISTURE
CONTENT ALSO WILL BE GOOD WITH ENSEMBLE PWATS AT LEAST 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. OCCASIONAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PWATS...SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON MANY FOLKS OUTDOOR
PLANS SO WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUTTING OUT
HIGHLIGHTS ON THIS SYSTEM. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND INTO THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/090 060/091 056/077 050/073 049/064 045/067 043/071
    00/K    00/B    12/T    22/T    34/T    42/T    21/U
LVM 046/091 052/087 048/073 042/071 043/066 039/065 037/071
    00/K    10/N    14/T    43/T    44/T    43/T    31/U
HDN 053/093 057/096 055/082 051/076 051/069 046/069 043/073
    00/U    10/B    02/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    21/U
MLS 055/093 060/098 059/083 055/079 055/072 048/066 043/071
    00/U    00/B    02/T    22/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
4BQ 055/093 059/098 059/088 056/080 056/073 050/067 045/070
    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/T    44/T    33/T    21/U
BHK 053/091 056/098 059/086 056/080 054/071 049/065 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
SHR 047/092 053/094 053/084 050/078 049/071 045/067 039/071
    00/U    10/B    11/B    12/T    23/T    33/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 312122
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

THE WEATHER WILL TURN VERY WARM AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL DEEPEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. DEEP MONSOON FLOW WILL BE
DEFLECTED INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH MOST
OF THE AREA HAVING PRECIPITABLE WATERS BELOW SEVEN TENTHS. MIXING
THIS RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMEST POTENTIAL DAY BEING
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH JUST A
WIND SHIFT...BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL SEE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT MIXING WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST POTENTIAL MIX DOWN WINDS WILL BE WEST OF
COLUMBUS AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY.
COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE MODEL TRENDS ON THIS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT MODELS WERE NOT ADVERTISING A BIG WIND SHIFT EVENT
FOR THIS FRONT AT THIS POINT. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

FAIRLY COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST AS MUCH UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
IN THE HANDLING OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST. REGARDLESS OF THE THE EVENTUAL SOLUTION, WE SHOULD SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

BOTH MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD COOL CONDITIONS
INTO THE UPPER 70S BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM SLOWER
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN SO CAN NOT RULE OUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PACIFIC TROUGH
QUICKLY EMERGE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTER
SOLUTION AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE EURO REMAINS SLOWER AND PUSHES A WEAKER COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOMETIME MONDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES THE EURO REFLECTS THIS
TREND WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO 00Z RUN. BECAUSE
OF WILDLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST. FOR THIS UPDATE USED A BLEND OF THE PRIOR
FORECAST AND NEW CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WITH A LITTLE BIT STRONGER
WEIGHTING OF THE GFS...WHICH HAD BETTER CONSISTENCY.

IN ANY SCENARIO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MOISTURE
CONTENT ALSO WILL BE GOOD WITH ENSEMBLE PWATS AT LEAST 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. OCCASIONAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PWATS...SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON MANY FOLKS OUTDOOR
PLANS SO WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE PUTTING OUT
HIGHLIGHTS ON THIS SYSTEM. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND INTO THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/090 060/091 056/077 050/073 049/064 045/067 043/071
    00/K    00/B    12/T    22/T    34/T    42/T    21/U
LVM 046/091 052/087 048/073 042/071 043/066 039/065 037/071
    00/K    10/N    14/T    43/T    44/T    43/T    31/U
HDN 053/093 057/096 055/082 051/076 051/069 046/069 043/073
    00/U    10/B    02/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    21/U
MLS 055/093 060/098 059/083 055/079 055/072 048/066 043/071
    00/U    00/B    02/T    22/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
4BQ 055/093 059/098 059/088 056/080 056/073 050/067 045/070
    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/T    44/T    33/T    21/U
BHK 053/091 056/098 059/086 056/080 054/071 049/065 044/068
    00/U    00/U    01/B    12/T    44/T    44/T    31/U
SHR 047/092 053/094 053/084 050/078 049/071 045/067 039/071
    00/U    10/B    11/B    12/T    23/T    33/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
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