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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 252200
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
400 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

REGION IS BRIEFLY INBETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON BEGINS SPREADING A
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHICH ALLOWS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE ON TUESDAY SO FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK BUT
AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN RECENT DAYS WITH BETTER
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS WEAKLY DIFFLUENT.

UPPER LOW MAKES LITTLE MOVEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LIGHT AND SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
TO ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DIURNAL
HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN YIELD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH SLOW MOVEMENT SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE. HEIGHTS BUILD A BIT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BRING
DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HYRDOLOGICALLY ADDITIONAL RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD NOT
STRONGLY CONTRIBUTE TO PROBLEMS BUT SHOULD SLOW THE FALL IN AREAS
THAT CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH WATER.

BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE PAC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WED/THU REACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRI.
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT EXISTS IN ITS EXACT TRACK...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AREAS IN THE
THU/FRI TIME FRAME PER A PERIOD OF DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW AND BROAD
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. THIS WOULD INCLUDE SHERIDAN COUNTY WHICH
HAS BEEN HIT WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN RECENTLY. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BIGHORNS. CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND DRIER SFC
RIDGE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING OUR CWA BY FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THU TO DROP INTO
THE 60S ON FRI WITH ANTICIPATED BACKDOOR COOLING.

FLAT RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA NEXT SAT/SUN
AS ROCKIES LOW DEPARTS AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW REMAINS IN WESTERN
CANADA. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WOULD EXPECT A WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THUS SOME DIURNAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE GROUND
MOISTURE IN PLACE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PREFRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE NEXT MON. THIS COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY YET OF
2015...OBVIOUSLY WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...
BUT WILL PUSH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS TO NEAR 80F WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO KEEP CLIMO POPS FOR NEXT
MONDAY AS FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET BUT AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE OVER
THE PAC NW MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/072 050/073 050/070 050/066 048/076 052/078 053/080
    24/T    56/T    35/T    54/T    32/T    22/T    23/T
LVM 045/067 044/068 044/066 045/064 045/073 048/075 046/076
    36/T    66/T    55/T    54/T    43/T    32/T    23/T
HDN 045/075 049/076 049/074 049/068 045/077 050/079 049/082
    23/T    46/T    35/T    55/T    32/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 047/076 052/075 052/075 050/067 046/074 050/077 051/080
    22/T    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    21/B    23/T
4BQ 045/073 050/074 050/072 050/065 045/071 049/075 050/079
    22/T    36/T    44/T    44/T    31/B    11/B    23/T
BHK 043/073 047/073 048/073 046/064 039/067 044/074 048/077
    31/B    36/T    53/T    33/T    21/B    12/T    23/T
SHR 042/069 046/070 046/068 047/062 044/071 047/074 048/077
    33/T    55/T    46/T    65/T    42/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 252200
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
400 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

REGION IS BRIEFLY INBETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON BEGINS SPREADING A
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHICH ALLOWS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE ON TUESDAY SO FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK BUT
AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE WITH WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN RECENT DAYS WITH BETTER
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS WEAKLY DIFFLUENT.

UPPER LOW MAKES LITTLE MOVEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LIGHT AND SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
TO ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DIURNAL
HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN YIELD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH SLOW MOVEMENT SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE. HEIGHTS BUILD A BIT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BRING
DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HYRDOLOGICALLY ADDITIONAL RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD NOT
STRONGLY CONTRIBUTE TO PROBLEMS BUT SHOULD SLOW THE FALL IN AREAS
THAT CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH WATER.

BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE PAC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WED/THU REACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRI.
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT EXISTS IN ITS EXACT TRACK...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AREAS IN THE
THU/FRI TIME FRAME PER A PERIOD OF DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW AND BROAD
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. THIS WOULD INCLUDE SHERIDAN COUNTY WHICH
HAS BEEN HIT WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN RECENTLY. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BIGHORNS. CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND DRIER SFC
RIDGE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING OUR CWA BY FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THU TO DROP INTO
THE 60S ON FRI WITH ANTICIPATED BACKDOOR COOLING.

FLAT RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA NEXT SAT/SUN
AS ROCKIES LOW DEPARTS AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW REMAINS IN WESTERN
CANADA. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WOULD EXPECT A WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THUS SOME DIURNAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE GROUND
MOISTURE IN PLACE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PREFRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE NEXT MON. THIS COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY YET OF
2015...OBVIOUSLY WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...
BUT WILL PUSH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS TO NEAR 80F WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO KEEP CLIMO POPS FOR NEXT
MONDAY AS FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET BUT AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE OVER
THE PAC NW MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/072 050/073 050/070 050/066 048/076 052/078 053/080
    24/T    56/T    35/T    54/T    32/T    22/T    23/T
LVM 045/067 044/068 044/066 045/064 045/073 048/075 046/076
    36/T    66/T    55/T    54/T    43/T    32/T    23/T
HDN 045/075 049/076 049/074 049/068 045/077 050/079 049/082
    23/T    46/T    35/T    55/T    32/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 047/076 052/075 052/075 050/067 046/074 050/077 051/080
    22/T    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    21/B    23/T
4BQ 045/073 050/074 050/072 050/065 045/071 049/075 050/079
    22/T    36/T    44/T    44/T    31/B    11/B    23/T
BHK 043/073 047/073 048/073 046/064 039/067 044/074 048/077
    31/B    36/T    53/T    33/T    21/B    12/T    23/T
SHR 042/069 046/070 046/068 047/062 044/071 047/074 048/077
    33/T    55/T    46/T    65/T    42/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 251438
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
838 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN SHERIDAN COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. ALSO LOWERED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOOKING AT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR FLOODING
IMPACTS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW AND PRODUCED
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BIGHORNS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS AREA HAS HAD A COUPLE SHOTS OF
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK AND THUS...MOST OF THE WATER RAN OFF
INTO THE WATERWAYS. THIS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS AROUND STORY...AND ALSO NEAR SHERIDAN. SHOWERS WERE
STILL WRAPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND WILL GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THE LOW WILL FILL
AND MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS SUNDAY.

THINGS DRY OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. SHEAR WAS RATHER WEAK AND CAPE
WAS THIN...BUT DEEP. HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF WERE PUTTING DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE WEST
WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY WEST OF
BILLINGS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND RAISED THEM FURTHER TO HIGH
SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S...BUT SEASONAL ON TUESDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES.
THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE OF A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HAS THEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO BEGINS TO FILL AND
BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GEM ALL
MAINTAIN MUCH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH EITHER
SOLUTIONS THOUGH THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING THE CHANCES SCATTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SHEAR IS STILL VERY LOW MAXING OUT AROUND 20KT WHILE
MAINLY BEING 10 TO 12 KNOTS. SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SEVERE...BUT SHOULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S VERSUS MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE
TROUGH A FLAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS DOES NOT
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KSHR-KMLS-KBHK THIS MORNING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY NOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. VFR WILL PREVAIL
OTHERWISE THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 047/072 050/072 049/071 049/068 048/075 050/076
    6/T 24/T    54/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
LVM 065 044/067 045/068 043/066 044/066 045/073 046/074
    3/T 36/T    66/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    32/W
HDN 068 045/075 049/075 049/074 048/070 047/077 048/078
    6/T 23/T    44/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
MLS 066 047/074 051/074 051/074 049/068 046/073 049/075
    6/T 22/T    35/T    43/T    33/T    32/T    21/B
4BQ 064 045/072 049/074 050/072 049/067 045/071 048/074
    7/T 22/T    35/T    33/T    44/T    31/B    11/B
BHK 062 045/071 047/073 048/072 045/064 040/066 044/070
    7/T 31/B    35/T    54/T    33/T    31/B    11/B
SHR 061 041/069 045/070 046/068 045/064 044/071 046/073
    5/T 23/T    55/T    45/T    55/T    43/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 251438
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
838 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN SHERIDAN COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. ALSO LOWERED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOOKING AT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR FLOODING
IMPACTS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW AND PRODUCED
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BIGHORNS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS AREA HAS HAD A COUPLE SHOTS OF
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK AND THUS...MOST OF THE WATER RAN OFF
INTO THE WATERWAYS. THIS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS AROUND STORY...AND ALSO NEAR SHERIDAN. SHOWERS WERE
STILL WRAPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND WILL GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THE LOW WILL FILL
AND MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS SUNDAY.

THINGS DRY OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. SHEAR WAS RATHER WEAK AND CAPE
WAS THIN...BUT DEEP. HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF WERE PUTTING DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE WEST
WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY WEST OF
BILLINGS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND RAISED THEM FURTHER TO HIGH
SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S...BUT SEASONAL ON TUESDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES.
THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE OF A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HAS THEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO BEGINS TO FILL AND
BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GEM ALL
MAINTAIN MUCH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH EITHER
SOLUTIONS THOUGH THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING THE CHANCES SCATTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SHEAR IS STILL VERY LOW MAXING OUT AROUND 20KT WHILE
MAINLY BEING 10 TO 12 KNOTS. SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SEVERE...BUT SHOULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S VERSUS MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE
TROUGH A FLAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS DOES NOT
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KSHR-KMLS-KBHK THIS MORNING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY NOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. VFR WILL PREVAIL
OTHERWISE THROUGH TONIGHT. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 047/072 050/072 049/071 049/068 048/075 050/076
    6/T 24/T    54/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
LVM 065 044/067 045/068 043/066 044/066 045/073 046/074
    3/T 36/T    66/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    32/W
HDN 068 045/075 049/075 049/074 048/070 047/077 048/078
    6/T 23/T    44/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
MLS 066 047/074 051/074 051/074 049/068 046/073 049/075
    6/T 22/T    35/T    43/T    33/T    32/T    21/B
4BQ 064 045/072 049/074 050/072 049/067 045/071 048/074
    7/T 22/T    35/T    33/T    44/T    31/B    11/B
BHK 062 045/071 047/073 048/072 045/064 040/066 044/070
    7/T 31/B    35/T    54/T    33/T    31/B    11/B
SHR 061 041/069 045/070 046/068 045/064 044/071 046/073
    5/T 23/T    55/T    45/T    55/T    43/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 250937
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW AND PRODUCED
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BIGHORNS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS AREA HAS HAD A COUPLE SHOTS OF
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK AND THUS...MOST OF THE WATER RAN OFF
INTO THE WATERWAYS. THIS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS AROUND STORY...AND ALSO NEAR SHERIDAN. SHOWERS WERE
STILL WRAPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND WILL GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THE LOW WILL FILL
AND MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS SUNDAY.

THINGS DRY OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. SHEAR WAS RATHER WEAK AND CAPE
WAS THIN...BUT DEEP. HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF WERE PUTTING DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE WEST
WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY WEST OF
BILLINGS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND RAISED THEM FURTHER TO HIGH
SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S...BUT SEASONAL ON TUESDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES.
THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE OF A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HAS THEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO BEGINS TO FILL AND
BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GEM ALL
MAINTAIN MUCH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH EITHER
SOLUTIONS THOUGH THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING THE CHANCES SCATTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SHEAR IS STILL VERY LOW MAXING OUT AROUND 20KT WHILE
MAINLY BEING 10 TO 12 KNOTS. SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SEVERE...BUT SHOULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S VERSUS MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE
TROUGH A FLAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS DOES NOT
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING TODAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...IMPROVING TO VFR TO
MVFR. IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 047/072 050/072 049/071 049/068 048/075 050/076
    5/T 24/T    54/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
LVM 065 044/067 045/068 043/066 044/066 045/073 046/074
    3/T 36/T    66/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    32/W
HDN 068 045/075 049/075 049/074 048/070 047/077 048/078
    6/T 23/T    44/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
MLS 066 047/074 051/074 051/074 049/068 046/073 049/075
    6/T 22/T    35/T    43/T    33/T    32/T    21/B
4BQ 064 045/072 049/074 050/072 049/067 045/071 048/074
    7/T 22/T    35/T    33/T    44/T    31/B    11/B
BHK 062 045/071 047/073 048/072 045/064 040/066 044/070
    7/T 31/B    35/T    54/T    33/T    31/B    11/B
SHR 061 041/069 045/070 046/068 045/064 044/071 046/073
    5/T 23/T    55/T    45/T    55/T    43/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 250937
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW AND PRODUCED
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BIGHORNS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS AREA HAS HAD A COUPLE SHOTS OF
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK AND THUS...MOST OF THE WATER RAN OFF
INTO THE WATERWAYS. THIS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS AROUND STORY...AND ALSO NEAR SHERIDAN. SHOWERS WERE
STILL WRAPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND WILL GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THE LOW WILL FILL
AND MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS SUNDAY.

THINGS DRY OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. SHEAR WAS RATHER WEAK AND CAPE
WAS THIN...BUT DEEP. HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF WERE PUTTING DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE WEST
WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY WEST OF
BILLINGS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND RAISED THEM FURTHER TO HIGH
SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S...BUT SEASONAL ON TUESDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES.
THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE OF A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HAS THEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO BEGINS TO FILL AND
BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GEM ALL
MAINTAIN MUCH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH EITHER
SOLUTIONS THOUGH THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING THE CHANCES SCATTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SHEAR IS STILL VERY LOW MAXING OUT AROUND 20KT WHILE
MAINLY BEING 10 TO 12 KNOTS. SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SEVERE...BUT SHOULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S VERSUS MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE
TROUGH A FLAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS DOES NOT
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING TODAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...IMPROVING TO VFR TO
MVFR. IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 047/072 050/072 049/071 049/068 048/075 050/076
    5/T 24/T    54/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
LVM 065 044/067 045/068 043/066 044/066 045/073 046/074
    3/T 36/T    66/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    32/W
HDN 068 045/075 049/075 049/074 048/070 047/077 048/078
    6/T 23/T    44/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
MLS 066 047/074 051/074 051/074 049/068 046/073 049/075
    6/T 22/T    35/T    43/T    33/T    32/T    21/B
4BQ 064 045/072 049/074 050/072 049/067 045/071 048/074
    7/T 22/T    35/T    33/T    44/T    31/B    11/B
BHK 062 045/071 047/073 048/072 045/064 040/066 044/070
    7/T 31/B    35/T    54/T    33/T    31/B    11/B
SHR 061 041/069 045/070 046/068 045/064 044/071 046/073
    5/T 23/T    55/T    45/T    55/T    43/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 250937
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW AND PRODUCED
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BIGHORNS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS AREA HAS HAD A COUPLE SHOTS OF
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK AND THUS...MOST OF THE WATER RAN OFF
INTO THE WATERWAYS. THIS LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS AROUND STORY...AND ALSO NEAR SHERIDAN. SHOWERS WERE
STILL WRAPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND WILL GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. THE LOW WILL FILL
AND MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY...WILL LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS SUNDAY.

THINGS DRY OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTERNOON SETTING UP DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. SHEAR WAS RATHER WEAK AND CAPE
WAS THIN...BUT DEEP. HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF WERE PUTTING DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE WEST
WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY WEST OF
BILLINGS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND RAISED THEM FURTHER TO HIGH
SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S...BUT SEASONAL ON TUESDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES.
THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE OF A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST HAS THEN AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO BEGINS TO FILL AND
BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE NAM...ECMWF...AND GEM ALL
MAINTAIN MUCH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH EITHER
SOLUTIONS THOUGH THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING THE CHANCES SCATTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SHEAR IS STILL VERY LOW MAXING OUT AROUND 20KT WHILE
MAINLY BEING 10 TO 12 KNOTS. SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SEVERE...BUT SHOULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S VERSUS MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE
TROUGH A FLAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS DOES NOT
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING TODAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...IMPROVING TO VFR TO
MVFR. IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 047/072 050/072 049/071 049/068 048/075 050/076
    5/T 24/T    54/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
LVM 065 044/067 045/068 043/066 044/066 045/073 046/074
    3/T 36/T    66/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    32/W
HDN 068 045/075 049/075 049/074 048/070 047/077 048/078
    6/T 23/T    44/T    34/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
MLS 066 047/074 051/074 051/074 049/068 046/073 049/075
    6/T 22/T    35/T    43/T    33/T    32/T    21/B
4BQ 064 045/072 049/074 050/072 049/067 045/071 048/074
    7/T 22/T    35/T    33/T    44/T    31/B    11/B
BHK 062 045/071 047/073 048/072 045/064 040/066 044/070
    7/T 31/B    35/T    54/T    33/T    31/B    11/B
SHR 061 041/069 045/070 046/068 045/064 044/071 046/073
    5/T 23/T    55/T    45/T    55/T    43/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 250327
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
927 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TURNED INTO A BUSY EVENING HERE WITH SOME FLOOD ISSUES AND COLD
AIR FUNNELS SIGHTED. THE COLD AIR FUNNEL/S/ OCCURRED A LITTLE WEST
OF BILLINGS AROUND 7 PM. THESE POPPED OUT FROM SOME ISOLATED
CELLS. WHY COLD AIR FUNNELS...BECAUSE NOTHING ON RADAR THAT
APPEARED THREATENING...NO LIGHTNING...NO SUPER CELL STRUCTURES.
WE HAVE A COOL MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. THIS IS THE TYPE OF CONDITIONS COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE
NORMALLY SEEN.

AS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE
LITTLE GOOSE CREEK SOUTH OF SHERIDAN IS OUT OF ITS BANKS AND OVER
FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...IMPACTS AT THIS TIME ARE MINOR. OTHER
SMALLER CREEKS AND DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO BE FLOODING
FROM STORY TO THE TOWN OF BIG HORN AS WELL. OUR CONCERN IS A QUICK
RISING GOOSE CREEK IN SHERIDAN ITSELF. WE CURRENTLY HAVE ROOM FOR
SOME RISING WITH THE LATEST STAGE AT 5.64 FT AND FLOOD STAGE AT
7.5 FT. WE JUST RECEIVED A NEW FORECAST FOR A CREST AT AROUND
8.3FT AT 2 AM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS RIVER MODELS DO NOT WORK WELL
FOR THIS AREA. SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS RISING
WATER ALONG THE LITTLE GOOSE AND BIG GOOSE CREEKS BOTH FLOW INTO
THE GOOSE CREEK IN SHERIDAN.

AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH IMPACTS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. POPS TRENDS WITH INHERITED
FORECASTS LOOK GOOD. I EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW...THOUGH MAYBE NOT QUITE AS LOCKED IN AS TODAY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS IN THE FORECAST MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ACTIVE LATE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.

TONIGHT...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SO SHOWERS
WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE CONTINUING WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING EXISTS.
THE 12 UTC GLOBAL...CONVECTIVELY-PARAMETERIZED MODEL GUIDANCE AND
HIGHER-RESOLUTION...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS LIKE THE NCEP WRF-
ARW AND NMM ALL SUGGEST THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF FORCING AND
THUS SHOWERS WILL BE FROM SHERIDAN EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT. WE
THUS HAVE 60+ PERCENT POPS IN PLAY THERE AND MAINLY CHANCE-STYLE
POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. THE FORCING IN SOUTHEASTERN MT WILL BE
DRIVEN ON THE LARGER-SCALE BY A 500-MB LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY.

MONDAY...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONTINUED THE THEME PRESENTED IN MOST
RECENT SOLUTIONS FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAN EXPECTED IN
EARLIER FORECASTS FOR MEMORIAL DAY. WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH SUPPORTED LIKELY POPS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND CHANCE-TYPE POPS OF 30 TO
50 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. DRYING WILL NONETHELESS
BEGIN ALOFT BY AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD HELP HIGHS REACH INTO THE
60S F IN MANY PLACES.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CROSS THE AREA AND THAT
WILL OFFER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER
ANY LINGERING...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK 500-MB LOW MOVING
EAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL COMBINE WITH A BIT
LESS CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S F
TO THE LOWER 70S F IN MOST AREAS. THAT IN TURN WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD MLCAPE BETWEEN 250
AND 500 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE 12 UTC GFS AND
NAM SOLUTIONS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY FAVOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND AND NORTH CENTRAL WY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CAPE-SHEAR SETTING LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY STRONG STORMS...BUT THE SCENARIO APPEARS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING THAN MOST RECENT DAYS. THAT IS BACKED
UP BY 09 UTC SREF-BASED CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES NEAR
40 PERCENT. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED
THOUGH THERE A FEW PERIODS WHICH ARE WORTH HIGHLIGHTING. WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STALLS AND FILLS OVER IDAHO LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A BELT
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A BETTER
THUNDERSTORM SET UP DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE
LOW. GFS IS FAVORING MOST OF THE AREA BEING IN THE COOL SECTOR
WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER WYOMING WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS DISTINCT
WITH THIS SURFACE LOW AND ALLOWS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. WRF AND
SREF INDICATE 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES BUT SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT SO
EXPECT BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BUT NOT MUCH INTENSITY.
THURSDAY HAS EVEN LESS SHEAR AND CAPE BUT AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE
SO ANY HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS
WET AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. RIDGING
SHOWS UP NEXT WEEKEND FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE ECMWF IS
LESS CERTAIN OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGING AND HAS MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW. COULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKENDS. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD COMPROMISE FORECAST BUT GFS
WOULD SUPPORT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
E AND S OF KBIL. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR/IFR WITH THE SHOWERS...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES. KSHR WILL HAVE LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL LIFR CEILINGS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON MON WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY E.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER MON AFTERNOON AS WELL. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NE BIGHORNS THROUGH MON AND AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ELSEWHERE. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/066 047/072 050/071 049/071 049/066 048/073 049/077
    34/T    24/T    54/T    44/T    44/T    33/T    31/B
LVM 040/065 044/067 045/066 043/066 043/065 043/072 045/074
    23/T    36/T    64/T    44/T    44/T    43/T    32/W
HDN 048/068 045/075 049/073 049/074 049/069 046/075 048/080
    65/T    23/T    34/T    44/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
MLS 049/066 047/074 051/073 050/074 049/068 046/071 048/075
    56/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    22/W    11/B
4BQ 047/064 045/072 049/072 049/072 049/066 045/070 047/075
    87/T    22/T    34/T    44/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
BHK 048/062 045/071 047/071 047/071 045/064 040/066 043/072
    77/T    32/T    34/T    44/T    33/T    32/W    11/B
SHR 042/061 041/069 045/068 045/068 045/064 044/069 045/075
    94/T    23/T    43/T    44/T    44/T    42/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 242053
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS IN THE FORECAST MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ACTIVE LATE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.

TONIGHT...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SO SHOWERS
WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE CONTINUING WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING EXISTS.
THE 12 UTC GLOBAL...CONVECTIVELY-PARAMETERIZED MODEL GUIDANCE AND
HIGHER-RESOLUTION...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS LIKE THE NCEP WRF-
ARW AND NMM ALL SUGGEST THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF FORCING AND
THUS SHOWERS WILL BE FROM SHERIDAN EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT. WE
THUS HAVE 60+ PERCENT POPS IN PLAY THERE AND MAINLY CHANCE-STYLE
POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. THE FORCING IN SOUTHEASTERN MT WILL BE
DRIVEN ON THE LARGER-SCALE BY A 500-MB LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY.

MONDAY...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONTINUED THE THEME PRESENTED IN MOST
RECENT SOLUTIONS FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAN EXPECTED IN
EARLIER FORECASTS FOR MEMORIAL DAY. WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH SUPPORTED LIKELY POPS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND CHANCE-TYPE POPS OF 30 TO
50 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. DRYING WILL NONETHELESS
BEGIN ALOFT BY AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD HELP HIGHS REACH INTO THE
60S F IN MANY PLACES.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CROSS THE AREA AND THAT
WILL OFFER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER
ANY LINGERING...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK 500-MB LOW MOVING
EAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL COMBINE WITH A BIT
LESS CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S F
TO THE LOWER 70S F IN MOST AREAS. THAT IN TURN WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD MLCAPE BETWEEN 250
AND 500 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE 12 UTC GFS AND
NAM SOLUTIONS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY FAVOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND AND NORTH CENTRAL WY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CAPE-SHEAR SETTING LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY STRONG STORMS...BUT THE SCENARIO APPEARS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING THAN MOST RECENT DAYS. THAT IS BACKED
UP BY 09 UTC SREF-BASED CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES NEAR
40 PERCENT. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED
THOUGH THERE A FEW PERIODS WHICH ARE WORTH HIGHLIGHTING. WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STALLS AND FILLS OVER IDAHO LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A BELT
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A BETTER
THUNDERSTORM SET UP DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE
LOW. GFS IS FAVORING MOST OF THE AREA BEING IN THE COOL SECTOR
WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER WYOMING WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS DISTINCT
WITH THIS SURFACE LOW AND ALLOWS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. WRF AND
SREF INDICATE 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES BUT SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT SO
EXPECT BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BUT NOT MUCH INTENSITY.
THURSDAY HAS EVEN LESS SHEAR AND CAPE BUT AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE
SO ANY HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS
WET AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. RIDGING
SHOWS UP NEXT WEEKEND FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE ECMWF IS
LESS CERTAIN OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGING AND HAS MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW. COULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKENDS. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD COMPROMISE FORECAST BUT GFS
WOULD SUPPORT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
SUPPORTING FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. KSHR WILL BE THE
MOST IMPACTED LOCATION WITH THE CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER AT KBIL AND KLVM IN THE
EVENING HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY. KMLS COULD SEE A
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 22Z TO 02Z. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/066 047/072 050/071 049/071 049/066 048/073 049/077
    54/T    24/T    54/T    44/T    44/T    33/T    31/B
LVM 040/065 044/067 045/066 043/066 043/065 043/072 045/074
    43/T    36/T    64/T    44/T    44/T    43/T    32/W
HDN 048/068 045/075 049/073 049/074 049/069 046/075 048/080
    65/T    23/T    34/T    44/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
MLS 049/066 047/074 051/073 050/074 049/068 046/071 048/075
    66/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    22/W    11/B
4BQ 047/064 045/072 049/072 049/072 049/066 045/070 047/075
    77/T    22/T    34/T    44/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
BHK 048/062 045/071 047/071 047/071 045/064 040/066 043/072
    97/T    32/T    34/T    44/T    33/T    32/W    11/B
SHR 042/061 041/069 045/068 045/068 045/064 044/069 045/075
    +4/T    23/T    43/T    44/T    44/T    42/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 242053
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS IN THE FORECAST MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ACTIVE LATE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.

TONIGHT...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SO SHOWERS
WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE CONTINUING WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING EXISTS.
THE 12 UTC GLOBAL...CONVECTIVELY-PARAMETERIZED MODEL GUIDANCE AND
HIGHER-RESOLUTION...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS LIKE THE NCEP WRF-
ARW AND NMM ALL SUGGEST THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF FORCING AND
THUS SHOWERS WILL BE FROM SHERIDAN EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT. WE
THUS HAVE 60+ PERCENT POPS IN PLAY THERE AND MAINLY CHANCE-STYLE
POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. THE FORCING IN SOUTHEASTERN MT WILL BE
DRIVEN ON THE LARGER-SCALE BY A 500-MB LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY.

MONDAY...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONTINUED THE THEME PRESENTED IN MOST
RECENT SOLUTIONS FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAN EXPECTED IN
EARLIER FORECASTS FOR MEMORIAL DAY. WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH SUPPORTED LIKELY POPS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND CHANCE-TYPE POPS OF 30 TO
50 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. DRYING WILL NONETHELESS
BEGIN ALOFT BY AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD HELP HIGHS REACH INTO THE
60S F IN MANY PLACES.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CROSS THE AREA AND THAT
WILL OFFER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AFTER
ANY LINGERING...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK 500-MB LOW MOVING
EAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THAT WILL COMBINE WITH A BIT
LESS CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S F
TO THE LOWER 70S F IN MOST AREAS. THAT IN TURN WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD MLCAPE BETWEEN 250
AND 500 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE 12 UTC GFS AND
NAM SOLUTIONS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY FAVOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND AND NORTH CENTRAL WY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CAPE-SHEAR SETTING LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY STRONG STORMS...BUT THE SCENARIO APPEARS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING THAN MOST RECENT DAYS. THAT IS BACKED
UP BY 09 UTC SREF-BASED CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES NEAR
40 PERCENT. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED
THOUGH THERE A FEW PERIODS WHICH ARE WORTH HIGHLIGHTING. WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STALLS AND FILLS OVER IDAHO LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A BELT
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A BETTER
THUNDERSTORM SET UP DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE
LOW. GFS IS FAVORING MOST OF THE AREA BEING IN THE COOL SECTOR
WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER WYOMING WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS DISTINCT
WITH THIS SURFACE LOW AND ALLOWS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. WRF AND
SREF INDICATE 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES BUT SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT SO
EXPECT BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BUT NOT MUCH INTENSITY.
THURSDAY HAS EVEN LESS SHEAR AND CAPE BUT AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE
SO ANY HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS
WET AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. RIDGING
SHOWS UP NEXT WEEKEND FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE ECMWF IS
LESS CERTAIN OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGING AND HAS MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW. COULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKENDS. LOOKS LIKE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD COMPROMISE FORECAST BUT GFS
WOULD SUPPORT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
SUPPORTING FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. KSHR WILL BE THE
MOST IMPACTED LOCATION WITH THE CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER AT KBIL AND KLVM IN THE
EVENING HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY. KMLS COULD SEE A
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 22Z TO 02Z. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/066 047/072 050/071 049/071 049/066 048/073 049/077
    54/T    24/T    54/T    44/T    44/T    33/T    31/B
LVM 040/065 044/067 045/066 043/066 043/065 043/072 045/074
    43/T    36/T    64/T    44/T    44/T    43/T    32/W
HDN 048/068 045/075 049/073 049/074 049/069 046/075 048/080
    65/T    23/T    34/T    44/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
MLS 049/066 047/074 051/073 050/074 049/068 046/071 048/075
    66/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    22/W    11/B
4BQ 047/064 045/072 049/072 049/072 049/066 045/070 047/075
    77/T    22/T    34/T    44/T    44/T    32/T    21/B
BHK 048/062 045/071 047/071 047/071 045/064 040/066 043/072
    97/T    32/T    34/T    44/T    33/T    32/W    11/B
SHR 042/061 041/069 045/068 045/068 045/064 044/069 045/075
    +4/T    23/T    43/T    44/T    44/T    42/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 241529
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
929 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAP
SIMULATIONS...WHICH MAINLY MEANT INCREASING POPS TO 100 PERCENT IN
THE SHERIDAN AREA THROUGH THE DAY WHERE MODERATE RAIN IS OCCURRING
ALREADY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL FILL IN OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MT BY AFTERNOON TOO AS FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS NORTHWEST OUT OF SD.
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OCCASIONAL OR SCATTERED IN NATURE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST LIKE IN BILLINGS TODAY...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE DID LOWER FORECAST HIGHS A BIT IN SPOTS WHERE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN COLORADO ON ITS SLOW AND
STEADY PROGRESSION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POSITION OF THIS LOW
HAS KEPT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS
TRANSPORTING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO MONTANA WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S NOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
MOST OF THE STATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO EASY CLOUD COVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY FILL BACK IN TODAY. THE COLORADO LOW WILL WORK INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND WRAP ENERGY AROUND INTO
MONTANA. INSTABILITY WAS NOT GREAT...BUT WITH HIGH PWATS...THERE
WILL BE QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM BUT ALSO PROVIDE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS IN THE SHOWERS THAT FORM. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
POINTING TO THIS AREA FOR HIGHEST QPF.

THE LOW FILLS AND SLIDES INTO THE MIDWEST ON MEMORIAL DAY. IT HAD
BEEN LOOKING LIKE A RIDGE WOULD SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN
LOW HAS TAKEN THAT SOLUTION OUT OF THE PICTURE. LINGERING ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY WITH SLOW MOVING
CELLS AND PWATS OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. HAVE COOLED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR MONDAY DAY AS EXPECTING
LINGERING CLOUD COVER. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSTANT. A LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR
THE WEEK. THE LOW WILL PLACE THE AREA IN UNSETTLED...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALLOWING SEVERAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
GIVING THE AREA A CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE AND BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
AS A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...WHICH
WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN WITH THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 045/068 049/072 049/071 049/068 047/067 047/071
    6/T 42/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 059 039/070 045/068 044/066 043/066 043/067 042/069
    5/T 43/T    36/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 062 045/069 046/075 049/074 048/070 047/069 045/072
    6/T 43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 064 047/068 048/075 051/074 050/070 048/068 046/069
    7/T 54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    32/T    22/T
4BQ 058 046/066 044/073 049/073 049/069 048/066 046/067
    +/T 64/T    22/T    34/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
BHK 061 045/066 046/071 047/070 048/068 044/064 042/065
    6/T 75/T    32/T    34/T    44/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 054 043/064 044/070 045/069 045/066 044/065 042/067
    +/T 64/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 241529
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
929 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAP
SIMULATIONS...WHICH MAINLY MEANT INCREASING POPS TO 100 PERCENT IN
THE SHERIDAN AREA THROUGH THE DAY WHERE MODERATE RAIN IS OCCURRING
ALREADY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL FILL IN OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MT BY AFTERNOON TOO AS FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS NORTHWEST OUT OF SD.
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OCCASIONAL OR SCATTERED IN NATURE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST LIKE IN BILLINGS TODAY...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE DID LOWER FORECAST HIGHS A BIT IN SPOTS WHERE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN COLORADO ON ITS SLOW AND
STEADY PROGRESSION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POSITION OF THIS LOW
HAS KEPT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS
TRANSPORTING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO MONTANA WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S NOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
MOST OF THE STATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO EASY CLOUD COVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY FILL BACK IN TODAY. THE COLORADO LOW WILL WORK INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND WRAP ENERGY AROUND INTO
MONTANA. INSTABILITY WAS NOT GREAT...BUT WITH HIGH PWATS...THERE
WILL BE QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM BUT ALSO PROVIDE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS IN THE SHOWERS THAT FORM. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
POINTING TO THIS AREA FOR HIGHEST QPF.

THE LOW FILLS AND SLIDES INTO THE MIDWEST ON MEMORIAL DAY. IT HAD
BEEN LOOKING LIKE A RIDGE WOULD SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN
LOW HAS TAKEN THAT SOLUTION OUT OF THE PICTURE. LINGERING ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY WITH SLOW MOVING
CELLS AND PWATS OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. HAVE COOLED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR MONDAY DAY AS EXPECTING
LINGERING CLOUD COVER. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSTANT. A LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR
THE WEEK. THE LOW WILL PLACE THE AREA IN UNSETTLED...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALLOWING SEVERAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
GIVING THE AREA A CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE AND BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
AS A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...WHICH
WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN WITH THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 045/068 049/072 049/071 049/068 047/067 047/071
    6/T 42/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 059 039/070 045/068 044/066 043/066 043/067 042/069
    5/T 43/T    36/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 062 045/069 046/075 049/074 048/070 047/069 045/072
    6/T 43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 064 047/068 048/075 051/074 050/070 048/068 046/069
    7/T 54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    32/T    22/T
4BQ 058 046/066 044/073 049/073 049/069 048/066 046/067
    +/T 64/T    22/T    34/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
BHK 061 045/066 046/071 047/070 048/068 044/064 042/065
    6/T 75/T    32/T    34/T    44/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 054 043/064 044/070 045/069 045/066 044/065 042/067
    +/T 64/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240927
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
327 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN COLORADO ON ITS SLOW AND
STEADY PROGRESSION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POSITION OF THIS LOW
HAS KEPT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS
TRANSPORTING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO MONTANA WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S NOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
MOST OF THE STATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO EASY CLOUD COVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY FILL BACK IN TODAY. THE COLORADO LOW WILL WORK INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND WRAP ENERGY AROUND INTO
MONTANA. INSTABILITY WAS NOT GREAT...BUT WITH HIGH PWATS...THERE
WILL BE QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM BUT ALSO PROVIDE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS IN THE SHOWERS THAT FORM. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
POINTING TO THIS AREA FOR HIGHEST QPF.

THE LOW FILLS AND SLIDES INTO THE MIDWEST ON MEMORIAL DAY. IT HAD
BEEN LOOKING LIKE A RIDGE WOULD SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN
LOW HAS TAKEN THAT SOLUTION OUT OF THE PICTURE. LINGERING ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY WITH SLOW MOVING
CELLS AND PWATS OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. HAVE COOLED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR MONDAY DAY AS EXPECTING
LINGERING CLOUD COVER. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSTANT. A LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR
THE WEEK. THE LOW WILL PLACE THE AREA IN UNSETTLED...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALLOWING SEVERAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
GIVING THE AREA A CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE AND BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
AS A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...WHICH
WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXPECT FOR THE BRIEF COOL DOWN
WITH THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 045/068 049/072 049/071 049/068 047/067 047/071
    5/T 42/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 060 039/070 045/068 044/066 043/066 043/067 042/069
    5/T 43/T    36/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 063 045/069 046/075 049/074 048/070 047/069 045/072
    6/T 43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 064 047/068 048/075 051/074 050/070 048/068 046/069
    7/T 54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    32/T    22/T
4BQ 059 046/066 044/073 049/073 049/069 048/066 046/067
    9/T 64/T    22/T    34/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
BHK 061 045/066 046/071 047/070 048/068 044/064 042/065
    6/T 75/T    32/T    34/T    44/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 056 043/064 044/070 045/069 045/066 044/065 042/067
    9/T 64/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240317
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
917 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE QPF TIMING AND PLACEMENT VERY
WELL THIS EVENING...WHICH IS NO SURPRISE DUE TO THE SUBTLE
DYNAMICS OVER OUR PARTICULAR REGION. BEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS OVER
EASTERN WYOMING WHERE SOME LIGHTNING CAN BE FOUND. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS HEADED WEST AND A LITTLE NORTHWEST...AND MAY BREACH
THE NORTHERN BIG HORNS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THOUGH I HAVE
REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND REMOVED THUNDER FROM ALL BUT THE VERY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE IS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
LINKED TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...FROM SW OF BILLINGS UP TO MILES CITY.
SOME SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP AT TIMES HERE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THE AREAS FURTHER NORTH MAY JUST BE SPRINKLES. UPSLOPE INTO THE
NORTHEAS FACING BEARTOOTHS STILL PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY
THERE...AND IT MAY PERSIST IN SPOTTY FASHION OVERNIGHT. BATCH OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE COME INTO OUR SE SECTIONS TOMORROW. THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SEEMS TO INCLUDE OUR SE TOMORROW AS WELL...SO
OUR CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD IN THE SE TOMORROW. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ANY THUNDER WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AS
EARLY CLOUD COVER HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BETTER THAN WHAT
THE CASE WAS YESTERDAY. COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE ABOVE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REAMIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL WRAP A
GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO BAKER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS PAINT ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 0.50"
TO JUST OVER AN 1.00" OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WITH CHANCES
LESSENING BY MONDAY.

A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY BUT WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE READINGS WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON
MONDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEEK AS
WELL AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST WITH
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL BE AROUND 0.50"-1.0" AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS STILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER AND COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING FROM VFR/MVFR TO IFR TOWARD 12Z SUN. LIFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSHR LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR DURING SUN MORNING AND WILL CONTINUING RISING IN THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR WITH SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED FOG. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS SUN
MORNING...EXCEPT OVER SE MT AND THE KSHR AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL THEN REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER SE MT AND THE KSHR AREA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...WITH WIDESPREAD
OBSCURATION OVER THE NE BIG HORNS ON SUN. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/062 045/069 049/071 048/070 049/069 047/065 046/069
    36/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 043/060 039/070 045/068 043/065 044/068 042/065 042/067
    34/T    33/T    36/T    64/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 049/072 047/067 045/070
    36/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 047/064 047/068 048/073 049/072 050/070 048/066 044/069
    27/T    54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 050/069 047/065 043/067
    29/T    65/T    22/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 046/061 045/066 046/070 047/069 048/067 045/063 042/065
    26/T    76/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 045/056 043/064 044/069 045/068 046/068 044/065 042/066
    59/T    64/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240317
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
917 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE QPF TIMING AND PLACEMENT VERY
WELL THIS EVENING...WHICH IS NO SURPRISE DUE TO THE SUBTLE
DYNAMICS OVER OUR PARTICULAR REGION. BEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS OVER
EASTERN WYOMING WHERE SOME LIGHTNING CAN BE FOUND. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS HEADED WEST AND A LITTLE NORTHWEST...AND MAY BREACH
THE NORTHERN BIG HORNS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THOUGH I HAVE
REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND REMOVED THUNDER FROM ALL BUT THE VERY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BORDER AREAS. THERE IS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
LINKED TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...FROM SW OF BILLINGS UP TO MILES CITY.
SOME SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP AT TIMES HERE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THE AREAS FURTHER NORTH MAY JUST BE SPRINKLES. UPSLOPE INTO THE
NORTHEAS FACING BEARTOOTHS STILL PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY
THERE...AND IT MAY PERSIST IN SPOTTY FASHION OVERNIGHT. BATCH OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE COME INTO OUR SE SECTIONS TOMORROW. THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SEEMS TO INCLUDE OUR SE TOMORROW AS WELL...SO
OUR CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD IN THE SE TOMORROW. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ANY THUNDER WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AS
EARLY CLOUD COVER HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BETTER THAN WHAT
THE CASE WAS YESTERDAY. COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE ABOVE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REAMIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL WRAP A
GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO BAKER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS PAINT ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 0.50"
TO JUST OVER AN 1.00" OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WITH CHANCES
LESSENING BY MONDAY.

A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY BUT WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE READINGS WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON
MONDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEEK AS
WELL AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST WITH
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL BE AROUND 0.50"-1.0" AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS STILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER AND COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING FROM VFR/MVFR TO IFR TOWARD 12Z SUN. LIFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KSHR LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR DURING SUN MORNING AND WILL CONTINUING RISING IN THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR WITH SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED FOG. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS SUN
MORNING...EXCEPT OVER SE MT AND THE KSHR AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL THEN REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER SE MT AND THE KSHR AREA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...WITH WIDESPREAD
OBSCURATION OVER THE NE BIG HORNS ON SUN. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/062 045/069 049/071 048/070 049/069 047/065 046/069
    36/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 043/060 039/070 045/068 043/065 044/068 042/065 042/067
    34/T    33/T    36/T    64/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 049/072 047/067 045/070
    36/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 047/064 047/068 048/073 049/072 050/070 048/066 044/069
    27/T    54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 050/069 047/065 043/067
    29/T    65/T    22/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 046/061 045/066 046/070 047/069 048/067 045/063 042/065
    26/T    76/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 045/056 043/064 044/069 045/068 046/068 044/065 042/066
    59/T    64/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240004
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
604 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY LITTLE UPDATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DRYING IN OUR EAST
AS WAVE ALOFT SHIFTS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS
WELL AS SHERIDAN COUNTY. NEXT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK INTO SHERIDAN AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ANY THUNDER WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AS
EARLY CLOUD COVER HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BETTER THAN WHAT
THE CASE WAS YESTERDAY. COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE ABOVE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REAMIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL WRAP A
GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO BAKER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS PAINT ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 0.50"
TO JUST OVER AN 1.00" OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WITH CHANCES
LESSENING BY MONDAY.

A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY BUT WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE READINGS WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON
MONDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEEK AS
WELL AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST WITH
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL BE AROUND 0.50"-1.0" AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS STILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER AND COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS IN AN EAST TO WEST
FASHION THIS EVENING...TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT AREAS THAT SAW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAF
LOCATIONS KLVM...KBIL AND KSHR COULD BE IMPACTED BY IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/062 045/069 049/071 048/070 049/069 047/065 046/069
    54/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 043/060 039/070 045/068 043/065 044/068 042/065 042/067
    43/T    33/T    36/T    64/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 049/072 047/067 045/070
    57/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 047/064 047/068 048/073 049/072 050/070 048/066 044/069
    36/T    54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 050/069 047/065 043/067
    49/T    65/T    22/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 046/061 045/066 046/070 047/069 048/067 045/063 042/065
    58/T    76/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 045/056 043/064 044/069 045/068 046/068 044/065 042/066
    79/T    64/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240004
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
604 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY LITTLE UPDATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DRYING IN OUR EAST
AS WAVE ALOFT SHIFTS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS
WELL AS SHERIDAN COUNTY. NEXT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK INTO SHERIDAN AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ANY THUNDER WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AS
EARLY CLOUD COVER HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BETTER THAN WHAT
THE CASE WAS YESTERDAY. COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE ABOVE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REAMIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL WRAP A
GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO BAKER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS PAINT ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 0.50"
TO JUST OVER AN 1.00" OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WITH CHANCES
LESSENING BY MONDAY.

A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY BUT WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE READINGS WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON
MONDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEEK AS
WELL AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST WITH
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL BE AROUND 0.50"-1.0" AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS STILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER AND COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS IN AN EAST TO WEST
FASHION THIS EVENING...TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT AREAS THAT SAW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAF
LOCATIONS KLVM...KBIL AND KSHR COULD BE IMPACTED BY IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/062 045/069 049/071 048/070 049/069 047/065 046/069
    54/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 043/060 039/070 045/068 043/065 044/068 042/065 042/067
    43/T    33/T    36/T    64/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 049/072 047/067 045/070
    57/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 047/064 047/068 048/073 049/072 050/070 048/066 044/069
    36/T    54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 050/069 047/065 043/067
    49/T    65/T    22/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 046/061 045/066 046/070 047/069 048/067 045/063 042/065
    58/T    76/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 045/056 043/064 044/069 045/068 046/068 044/065 042/066
    79/T    64/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240004
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
604 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY LITTLE UPDATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DRYING IN OUR EAST
AS WAVE ALOFT SHIFTS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS
WELL AS SHERIDAN COUNTY. NEXT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK INTO SHERIDAN AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ANY THUNDER WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AS
EARLY CLOUD COVER HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BETTER THAN WHAT
THE CASE WAS YESTERDAY. COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE ABOVE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REAMIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL WRAP A
GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO BAKER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS PAINT ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 0.50"
TO JUST OVER AN 1.00" OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WITH CHANCES
LESSENING BY MONDAY.

A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY BUT WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE READINGS WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON
MONDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEEK AS
WELL AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST WITH
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL BE AROUND 0.50"-1.0" AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS STILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER AND COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS IN AN EAST TO WEST
FASHION THIS EVENING...TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT AREAS THAT SAW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAF
LOCATIONS KLVM...KBIL AND KSHR COULD BE IMPACTED BY IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/062 045/069 049/071 048/070 049/069 047/065 046/069
    54/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 043/060 039/070 045/068 043/065 044/068 042/065 042/067
    43/T    33/T    36/T    64/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 049/072 047/067 045/070
    57/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 047/064 047/068 048/073 049/072 050/070 048/066 044/069
    36/T    54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 050/069 047/065 043/067
    49/T    65/T    22/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 046/061 045/066 046/070 047/069 048/067 045/063 042/065
    58/T    76/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 045/056 043/064 044/069 045/068 046/068 044/065 042/066
    79/T    64/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240004
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
604 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY LITTLE UPDATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DRYING IN OUR EAST
AS WAVE ALOFT SHIFTS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS
WELL AS SHERIDAN COUNTY. NEXT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK INTO SHERIDAN AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ANY THUNDER WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AS
EARLY CLOUD COVER HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BETTER THAN WHAT
THE CASE WAS YESTERDAY. COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE ABOVE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REAMIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL WRAP A
GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO BAKER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS PAINT ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 0.50"
TO JUST OVER AN 1.00" OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WITH CHANCES
LESSENING BY MONDAY.

A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY BUT WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE READINGS WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON
MONDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEEK AS
WELL AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST WITH
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL BE AROUND 0.50"-1.0" AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS STILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER AND COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS IN AN EAST TO WEST
FASHION THIS EVENING...TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT AREAS THAT SAW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAF
LOCATIONS KLVM...KBIL AND KSHR COULD BE IMPACTED BY IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/062 045/069 049/071 048/070 049/069 047/065 046/069
    54/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 043/060 039/070 045/068 043/065 044/068 042/065 042/067
    43/T    33/T    36/T    64/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 049/072 047/067 045/070
    57/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 047/064 047/068 048/073 049/072 050/070 048/066 044/069
    36/T    54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 050/069 047/065 043/067
    49/T    65/T    22/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 046/061 045/066 046/070 047/069 048/067 045/063 042/065
    58/T    76/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 045/056 043/064 044/069 045/068 046/068 044/065 042/066
    79/T    64/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 232050
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
250 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ANY THUNDER WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AS
EARLY CLOUD COVER HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BETTER THAN WHAT
THE CASE WAS YESTERDAY. COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE ABOVE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REAMIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL WRAP A
GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO BAKER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS PAINT ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 0.50"
TO JUST OVER AN 1.00" OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WITH CHANCES
LESSENING BY MONDAY.

A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY BUT WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE READINGS WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON
MONDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS
WELL AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST WITH
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL BE AROUND 0.50"-1.0" AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS STILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER AND COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS IN AN EAST TO WEST
FASHION THIS EVENING...TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT AREAS THAT SAW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAF
LOCATIONS KLVM...KBIL AND KSHR COULD BE IMPACTED BY IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/062 045/069 049/071 048/070 049/069 047/065 046/069
    24/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 043/060 039/070 045/068 043/065 044/068 042/065 042/067
    43/T    33/T    36/T    64/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 049/072 047/067 045/070
    37/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 047/064 047/068 048/073 049/072 050/070 048/066 044/069
    26/T    54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 050/069 047/065 043/067
    69/T    65/T    22/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 046/061 045/066 046/070 047/069 048/067 045/063 042/065
    68/T    76/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 045/056 043/064 044/069 045/068 046/068 044/065 042/066
    79/T    64/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 232050
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
250 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ANY THUNDER WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AS
EARLY CLOUD COVER HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BETTER THAN WHAT
THE CASE WAS YESTERDAY. COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE ABOVE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REAMIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL WRAP A
GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO BAKER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS PAINT ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 0.50"
TO JUST OVER AN 1.00" OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WITH CHANCES
LESSENING BY MONDAY.

A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY BUT WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE READINGS WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON
MONDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS
WELL AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST WITH
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL BE AROUND 0.50"-1.0" AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS STILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER AND COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS IN AN EAST TO WEST
FASHION THIS EVENING...TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT AREAS THAT SAW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAF
LOCATIONS KLVM...KBIL AND KSHR COULD BE IMPACTED BY IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/062 045/069 049/071 048/070 049/069 047/065 046/069
    24/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 043/060 039/070 045/068 043/065 044/068 042/065 042/067
    43/T    33/T    36/T    64/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 049/072 047/067 045/070
    37/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 047/064 047/068 048/073 049/072 050/070 048/066 044/069
    26/T    54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 050/069 047/065 043/067
    69/T    65/T    22/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 046/061 045/066 046/070 047/069 048/067 045/063 042/065
    68/T    76/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 045/056 043/064 044/069 045/068 046/068 044/065 042/066
    79/T    64/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 232050
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
250 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ANY THUNDER WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AS
EARLY CLOUD COVER HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE BETTER THAN WHAT
THE CASE WAS YESTERDAY. COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE ABOVE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REAMIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL WRAP A
GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO BAKER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODELS PAINT ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 0.50"
TO JUST OVER AN 1.00" OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WITH CHANCES
LESSENING BY MONDAY.

A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY BUT WITH
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE READINGS WILL MODERATE TO SEASONAL OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON
MONDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS
WELL AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO A RELATIVELY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST WITH
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE LOW. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL BE AROUND 0.50"-1.0" AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

MODELS STILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN A STRONGER AND COOLER
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS IN AN EAST TO WEST
FASHION THIS EVENING...TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT AREAS THAT SAW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAF
LOCATIONS KLVM...KBIL AND KSHR COULD BE IMPACTED BY IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/062 045/069 049/071 048/070 049/069 047/065 046/069
    24/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 043/060 039/070 045/068 043/065 044/068 042/065 042/067
    43/T    33/T    36/T    64/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 049/072 047/067 045/070
    37/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 047/064 047/068 048/073 049/072 050/070 048/066 044/069
    26/T    54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
4BQ 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 050/069 047/065 043/067
    69/T    65/T    22/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 046/061 045/066 046/070 047/069 048/067 045/063 042/065
    68/T    76/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 045/056 043/064 044/069 045/068 046/068 044/065 042/066
    79/T    64/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 231528
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
928 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER
EASTERN UTAH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WEST AND FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH MOVEMENT
BASICALLY EAST TO WEST DUE TO THE UPPER LOWS CIRCULATION.
SATELLITE IS SHOWING A NARROW BREAK IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
ROSEBUD...TREASURE...NORTHERN BIG HORN AND EASTERN YELLOWSTONE
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING FOR THESE AREAS BUT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY STAYING WEST OF
BILLINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH ACTIVITY POPPING UP BY MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO LESSEN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
EAST AND TO CLEAR OUT SKIES SOME FOR THE EAST AND CENTRAL AREAS.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEND TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH WAS SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY TONIGHT. WEAKER ENERGY WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WYOMING AS IT GETS EJECTED OFF OF THE MAIN LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WITH BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WAS NOT
GREAT BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL HAIL. WEAK STEERING WINDS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
CELLS AND THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BE PULSY IN NATURE
AND THUS SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL CREEP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE GFS WAS DEEPER WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND FARTHER WEST IN PLACEMENT. THUS...THE GFS
WAS HEAVIER IN QPF TOTALS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HIGH PWATS OVER
THE EAST WOULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A FORSYTH TO SHERIDAN LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH
ADDED CLOUD COVER. A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PULL IN EVEN COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED. MONDAY WILL SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING WORKING INTO THE
AREA...SLOWLY DISPLACING THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME
INSTABILITY WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH
BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN A WEAKLY RIDGY PATTERN TUESDAY...BUT AS THE THE PATTERN
BEGINS SHIFTING INTO AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN SEE A CHANCE AT PRECIP DURING THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS DOMINATED BY A TROUGH SETTING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE AREA REMAINING IN UNSETTLED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL GIVE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION...ALONG THE LINES OF THE
00Z GFS FROM YESTERDAY...FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE AREA DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND BY MIDWEEK
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CAPE THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST TO WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS TO FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS FROM SHERIDAN TO LIVINGSTON THROUGH 18Z. THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE
LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AREAS
THAT SAW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FOR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 045/062 045/069 047/071 048/070 048/069 047/064
    3/T 24/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 060 041/061 039/068 044/068 043/065 043/068 042/064
    6/T 43/T    33/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 067 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 048/072 047/066
    3/T 35/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 067 045/062 047/067 046/073 049/072 049/070 048/065
    3/T 46/T    45/T    22/T    33/T    32/T    23/T
4BQ 063 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 049/069 047/064
    3/T 67/T    55/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
BHK 061 045/060 045/064 044/070 047/069 047/067 045/062
    3/T 67/T    66/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
SHR 061 043/056 042/064 042/069 045/068 045/068 044/064
    4/T 46/T    44/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 231528
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
928 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SECOND LOW OVER
EASTERN UTAH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WEST AND FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH MOVEMENT
BASICALLY EAST TO WEST DUE TO THE UPPER LOWS CIRCULATION.
SATELLITE IS SHOWING A NARROW BREAK IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
ROSEBUD...TREASURE...NORTHERN BIG HORN AND EASTERN YELLOWSTONE
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING FOR THESE AREAS BUT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY STAYING WEST OF
BILLINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH ACTIVITY POPPING UP BY MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO LESSEN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
EAST AND TO CLEAR OUT SKIES SOME FOR THE EAST AND CENTRAL AREAS.
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEND TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH WAS SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY TONIGHT. WEAKER ENERGY WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WYOMING AS IT GETS EJECTED OFF OF THE MAIN LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WITH BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WAS NOT
GREAT BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL HAIL. WEAK STEERING WINDS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
CELLS AND THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BE PULSY IN NATURE
AND THUS SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL CREEP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE GFS WAS DEEPER WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND FARTHER WEST IN PLACEMENT. THUS...THE GFS
WAS HEAVIER IN QPF TOTALS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HIGH PWATS OVER
THE EAST WOULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A FORSYTH TO SHERIDAN LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH
ADDED CLOUD COVER. A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PULL IN EVEN COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED. MONDAY WILL SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING WORKING INTO THE
AREA...SLOWLY DISPLACING THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME
INSTABILITY WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH
BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN A WEAKLY RIDGY PATTERN TUESDAY...BUT AS THE THE PATTERN
BEGINS SHIFTING INTO AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN SEE A CHANCE AT PRECIP DURING THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS DOMINATED BY A TROUGH SETTING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE AREA REMAINING IN UNSETTLED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL GIVE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION...ALONG THE LINES OF THE
00Z GFS FROM YESTERDAY...FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE AREA DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND BY MIDWEEK
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CAPE THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST TO WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS TO FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS FROM SHERIDAN TO LIVINGSTON THROUGH 18Z. THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE
LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AREAS
THAT SAW ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED FOR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 045/062 045/069 047/071 048/070 048/069 047/064
    3/T 24/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 060 041/061 039/068 044/068 043/065 043/068 042/064
    6/T 43/T    33/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 067 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 048/072 047/066
    3/T 35/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 067 045/062 047/067 046/073 049/072 049/070 048/065
    3/T 46/T    45/T    22/T    33/T    32/T    23/T
4BQ 063 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 049/069 047/064
    3/T 67/T    55/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
BHK 061 045/060 045/064 044/070 047/069 047/067 045/062
    3/T 67/T    66/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
SHR 061 043/056 042/064 042/069 045/068 045/068 044/064
    4/T 46/T    44/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230941
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
341 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEND TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH WAS SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY TONIGHT. WEAKER ENERGY WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WYOMING AS IT GETS EJECTED OFF OF THE MAIN LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WITH BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WAS NOT
GREAT BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL HAIL. WEAK STEERING WINDS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
CELLS AND THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BE PULSY IN NATURE
AND THUS SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL CREEP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE GFS WAS DEEPER WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND FARTHER WEST IN PLACEMENT. THUS...THE GFS
WAS HEAVIER IN QPF TOTALS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HIGH PWATS OVER
THE EAST WOULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A FORSYTH TO SHERIDAN LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH
ADDED CLOUD COVER. A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PULL IN EVEN COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED. MONDAY WILL SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING WORKING INTO THE
AREA...SLOWLY DISPLACING THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME
INSTABILITY WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH
BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN A WEAKLY RIDGY PATTERN TUESDAY...BUT AS THE THE PATTERN
BEGINS SHIFTING INTO AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN SEE A CHANCE AT PRECIP DURING THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS DOMINATED BY A TROUGH SETTING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE AREA REMAINING IN UNSETTLED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL GIVE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION...ALONG THE LINES OF THE
00Z GFS FROM YESTERDAY...FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE AREA DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND BY MIDWEEK
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CAPE THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME ISOLATED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 045/062 045/069 047/071 048/070 048/069 047/064
    3/T 24/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 060 041/061 039/068 044/068 043/065 043/068 042/064
    6/T 43/T    33/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 067 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 048/072 047/066
    3/T 35/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 067 045/062 047/067 046/073 049/072 049/070 048/065
    3/T 46/T    45/T    22/T    33/T    32/T    23/T
4BQ 063 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 049/069 047/064
    3/T 67/T    55/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
BHK 061 045/060 045/064 044/070 047/069 047/067 045/062
    3/T 67/T    66/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
SHR 061 043/056 042/064 042/069 045/068 045/068 044/064
    4/T 46/T    44/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230941
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
341 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEND TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH WAS SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY TONIGHT. WEAKER ENERGY WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WYOMING AS IT GETS EJECTED OFF OF THE MAIN LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WITH BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WAS NOT
GREAT BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL HAIL. WEAK STEERING WINDS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
CELLS AND THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BE PULSY IN NATURE
AND THUS SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL CREEP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE GFS WAS DEEPER WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND FARTHER WEST IN PLACEMENT. THUS...THE GFS
WAS HEAVIER IN QPF TOTALS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HIGH PWATS OVER
THE EAST WOULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A FORSYTH TO SHERIDAN LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH
ADDED CLOUD COVER. A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PULL IN EVEN COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED. MONDAY WILL SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING WORKING INTO THE
AREA...SLOWLY DISPLACING THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME
INSTABILITY WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH
BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN A WEAKLY RIDGY PATTERN TUESDAY...BUT AS THE THE PATTERN
BEGINS SHIFTING INTO AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN SEE A CHANCE AT PRECIP DURING THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS DOMINATED BY A TROUGH SETTING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE AREA REMAINING IN UNSETTLED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL GIVE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION...ALONG THE LINES OF THE
00Z GFS FROM YESTERDAY...FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE AREA DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND BY MIDWEEK
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CAPE THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME ISOLATED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 045/062 045/069 047/071 048/070 048/069 047/064
    3/T 24/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 060 041/061 039/068 044/068 043/065 043/068 042/064
    6/T 43/T    33/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 067 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 048/072 047/066
    3/T 35/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 067 045/062 047/067 046/073 049/072 049/070 048/065
    3/T 46/T    45/T    22/T    33/T    32/T    23/T
4BQ 063 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 049/069 047/064
    3/T 67/T    55/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
BHK 061 045/060 045/064 044/070 047/069 047/067 045/062
    3/T 67/T    66/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
SHR 061 043/056 042/064 042/069 045/068 045/068 044/064
    4/T 46/T    44/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230941
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
341 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEND TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH WAS SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY TONIGHT. WEAKER ENERGY WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WYOMING AS IT GETS EJECTED OFF OF THE MAIN LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WITH BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WAS NOT
GREAT BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL HAIL. WEAK STEERING WINDS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
CELLS AND THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BE PULSY IN NATURE
AND THUS SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL CREEP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE GFS WAS DEEPER WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND FARTHER WEST IN PLACEMENT. THUS...THE GFS
WAS HEAVIER IN QPF TOTALS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HIGH PWATS OVER
THE EAST WOULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A FORSYTH TO SHERIDAN LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH
ADDED CLOUD COVER. A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PULL IN EVEN COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED. MONDAY WILL SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING WORKING INTO THE
AREA...SLOWLY DISPLACING THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME
INSTABILITY WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH
BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN A WEAKLY RIDGY PATTERN TUESDAY...BUT AS THE THE PATTERN
BEGINS SHIFTING INTO AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN SEE A CHANCE AT PRECIP DURING THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS DOMINATED BY A TROUGH SETTING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE AREA REMAINING IN UNSETTLED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL GIVE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION...ALONG THE LINES OF THE
00Z GFS FROM YESTERDAY...FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE AREA DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND BY MIDWEEK
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CAPE THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME ISOLATED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 045/062 045/069 047/071 048/070 048/069 047/064
    3/T 24/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 060 041/061 039/068 044/068 043/065 043/068 042/064
    6/T 43/T    33/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 067 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 048/072 047/066
    3/T 35/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 067 045/062 047/067 046/073 049/072 049/070 048/065
    3/T 46/T    45/T    22/T    33/T    32/T    23/T
4BQ 063 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 049/069 047/064
    3/T 67/T    55/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
BHK 061 045/060 045/064 044/070 047/069 047/067 045/062
    3/T 67/T    66/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
SHR 061 043/056 042/064 042/069 045/068 045/068 044/064
    4/T 46/T    44/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230941
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
341 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEND TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH WAS SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TOWARD SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY TONIGHT. WEAKER ENERGY WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WYOMING AS IT GETS EJECTED OFF OF THE MAIN LOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WITH BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WAS NOT
GREAT BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL HAIL. WEAK STEERING WINDS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
CELLS AND THUS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BE PULSY IN NATURE
AND THUS SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL CREEP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALL HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND AN INCH OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE GFS WAS DEEPER WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND FARTHER WEST IN PLACEMENT. THUS...THE GFS
WAS HEAVIER IN QPF TOTALS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. HIGH PWATS OVER
THE EAST WOULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A FORSYTH TO SHERIDAN LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH
ADDED CLOUD COVER. A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PULL IN EVEN COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED. MONDAY WILL SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING WORKING INTO THE
AREA...SLOWLY DISPLACING THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME
INSTABILITY WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA A CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH
BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN A WEAKLY RIDGY PATTERN TUESDAY...BUT AS THE THE PATTERN
BEGINS SHIFTING INTO AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN SEE A CHANCE AT PRECIP DURING THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS DOMINATED BY A TROUGH SETTING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE AREA REMAINING IN UNSETTLED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL GIVE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION...ALONG THE LINES OF THE
00Z GFS FROM YESTERDAY...FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH
WILL GIVE THE AREA DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND BY MIDWEEK
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME CAPE THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME ISOLATED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 045/062 045/069 047/071 048/070 048/069 047/064
    3/T 24/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 060 041/061 039/068 044/068 043/065 043/068 042/064
    6/T 43/T    33/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 067 046/063 045/069 046/074 048/072 048/072 047/066
    3/T 35/T    43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 067 045/062 047/067 046/073 049/072 049/070 048/065
    3/T 46/T    45/T    22/T    33/T    32/T    23/T
4BQ 063 046/059 046/066 044/072 048/071 049/069 047/064
    3/T 67/T    55/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
BHK 061 045/060 045/064 044/070 047/069 047/067 045/062
    3/T 67/T    66/T    32/T    34/T    43/T    33/T
SHR 061 043/056 042/064 042/069 045/068 045/068 044/064
    4/T 46/T    44/T    24/T    43/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230314
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
914 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
DISORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION WAS THE
RESULT OF A WEAK WAVE MOVING W IN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE
ALSO ON THE ORDER OF /0.6/ TO /0.8/ INCHES OVER THE AREA DUE TO
MOIST SE FLOW. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED THAT CAPES WERE DECREASING OVER
THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WERE AROUND 6.5 DEG C/KM...SUPPORTING CONTINUED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEAK ENERGY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BUT STABILITY WILL
INCREASE DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. THUS ADJUSTED POPS LOWER THROUGH
06Z BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...AND LOWERED THEM A BIT
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS WERE INDICATING POSSIBLE LOW CEILINGS OR FOG OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALREADY OVER THE
AREA...FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS OVER KLVM AND KSHR WHERE THE E TO
SE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS EVENING.

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WAS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW FROM MT TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SAT.
WITH PLENTY OF WAVES AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AS THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

AN UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON IS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. SOME OF THIS PRECIP IS SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTH RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. THESE TWO LOWS ARE WRAPPING MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AREA. LIGHTING DATA IS SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ALL ACROSS THE WEST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE LIGHTING DATA LOOK TO BE WHAT WE WOULD
TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE MONSOON SEASON OF LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

THESE LOWS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PIECES OF ENERGY GETTING EJECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IT WILL WRAP MOISTURE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A LIGHT STEADY RAIN. AS A RESULT...I
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS ALOFT/LITTLE SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE OR EVEN STRONG BUT THEY MAY PRODUCE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST AREAS BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKENDS.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK
AS THE MAJORITY OF THE JET ENERGY WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO
WARRANT A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AND
WITH READINGS AROUND 15-18C SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TUESDAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN READINGS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED NEAR THIS ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. RESIDUAL
VFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ONCE CONVECTION DISSIPATES. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z
TOMORROW MORNING AT KSHR...KLVM AND KBIL. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
IS NOT VERY HIGH THIS WILL OCCUR OR BE WIDESPREAD. LOOK FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/063 045/060 045/070 047/072 049/071 050/071 048/066
    23/T    23/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 045/061 041/061 039/067 043/068 044/066 045/069 043/065
    56/T    33/T    33/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 045/065 046/061 045/071 046/074 049/074 049/074 048/069
    23/T    33/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 047/064 045/062 047/067 046/073 050/072 050/071 049/067
    13/T    44/T    44/T    42/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 043/059 046/058 046/065 045/072 049/071 049/070 048/068
    16/T    67/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 043/058 045/060 045/065 043/069 047/070 048/069 046/066
    16/T    67/T    66/T    63/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 045/059 043/058 042/065 042/070 046/070 046/069 045/068
    25/T    46/T    33/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230314
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
914 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
DISORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION WAS THE
RESULT OF A WEAK WAVE MOVING W IN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE
ALSO ON THE ORDER OF /0.6/ TO /0.8/ INCHES OVER THE AREA DUE TO
MOIST SE FLOW. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED THAT CAPES WERE DECREASING OVER
THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WERE AROUND 6.5 DEG C/KM...SUPPORTING CONTINUED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEAK ENERGY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE BUT STABILITY WILL
INCREASE DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. THUS ADJUSTED POPS LOWER THROUGH
06Z BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...AND LOWERED THEM A BIT
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS WERE INDICATING POSSIBLE LOW CEILINGS OR FOG OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALREADY OVER THE
AREA...FOG DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS OVER KLVM AND KSHR WHERE THE E TO
SE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS EVENING.

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WAS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW FROM MT TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SAT.
WITH PLENTY OF WAVES AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AS THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

AN UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON IS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. SOME OF THIS PRECIP IS SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTH RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. THESE TWO LOWS ARE WRAPPING MOISTURE WEST AND NORTH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AREA. LIGHTING DATA IS SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ALL ACROSS THE WEST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE LIGHTING DATA LOOK TO BE WHAT WE WOULD
TYPICALLY SEE DURING THE MONSOON SEASON OF LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

THESE LOWS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PIECES OF ENERGY GETTING EJECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. AS
A RESULT...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IT WILL WRAP MOISTURE AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A LIGHT STEADY RAIN. AS A RESULT...I
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS ALOFT/LITTLE SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE OR EVEN STRONG BUT THEY MAY PRODUCE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST AREAS BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKENDS.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK
AS THE MAJORITY OF THE JET ENERGY WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND TO
WARRANT A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AND
WITH READINGS AROUND 15-18C SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TUESDAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN READINGS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED NEAR THIS ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. RESIDUAL
VFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ONCE CONVECTION DISSIPATES. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z
TOMORROW MORNING AT KSHR...KLVM AND KBIL. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
IS NOT VERY HIGH THIS WILL OCCUR OR BE WIDESPREAD. LOOK FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/063 045/060 045/070 047/072 049/071 050/071 048/066
    23/T    23/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 045/061 041/061 039/067 043/068 044/066 045/069 043/065
    56/T    33/T    33/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 045/065 046/061 045/071 046/074 049/074 049/074 048/069
    23/T    33/T    32/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 047/064 045/062 047/067 046/073 050/072 050/071 049/067
    13/T    44/T    44/T    42/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 043/059 046/058 046/065 045/072 049/071 049/070 048/068
    16/T    67/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 043/058 045/060 045/065 043/069 047/070 048/069 046/066
    16/T    67/T    66/T    63/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 045/059 043/058 042/065 042/070 046/070 046/069 045/068
    25/T    46/T    33/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





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