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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 042054
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
254 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED WITH MESOANALYSIS
SHOWING 500 J/KG TO 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE OVER THE AREA. SHEAR
WAS MINIMAL. WILL HAVE POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING...AIDED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDER THROUGH 03Z PER THE SREF. KEPT THE OVERNIGHT DRY DUE TO
LACK OF LIFT AND THE RETURN OF STABILITY. THE GUSTY SE WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SE MT THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT DECOUPLE AT
KSHR.

ON TUE...THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
ROTATE NE...SENDING A FEW SHORTWAVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE
SREF SHOWED SURFACE CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG DEVELOPING ON TUE
WITH MINIMAL SHEAR. WILL CARRY POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE MORNING
AND WILL MENTION THUNDER AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES EARLY. KEPT POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TUE AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ROTATING NE TUE NIGHT AND WED...REACHING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z THU. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF JET DIVERGENCE BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ON TUE AHEAD OF THE JET IN THE PACIFIC NW UPPER LOW. THE S TO SE
850 MB JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA INTO WED
AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO A HALF INCH W TO
AROUND AN INCH IN THE FAR E BY WED AFTERNOON. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM/S
COLD FRONT PUSHES E INTO THE AREA BY 12Z WED...A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. FOR TUE NIGHT...HAD SCATTERED POPS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WAS FORECAST TO REACH THE MT/DAKOTAS
BORDER BY 00Z THU. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD BANDS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL SETTING UP OVER SE MT WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE
SREF WAS MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE MT/DAKOTAS BORDER. THIS PRECIPITATION SHIFT TO THE W BY THE
MODELS WAS A NEW TREND. GIVEN THE ABOVE...HAD THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FOCUS E OF KBIL ON WED WITH LOWER POPS CENTRAL AND
W. GIVEN THE NEW MODEL TREND...THERE WAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.

THE WAVE WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WED NIGHT. THERE WERE
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION WOULD
EXIT THE AREA...WITH THE WRF DRYING OUT THE AREA FASTER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE FOR POPS WED
NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TUE WILL BE A WARM PREFRONTAL DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WED
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ARTHUR


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

COOL AND POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER IS THE THEME IN THE LONG TERM AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS WEEK AND
THEN EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WE ARE NOT YET
CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK OF THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS DYNAMIC TROUGH...AND IT/S THE TRACK OF
THAT FEATURE THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE GET
IN SOUTHERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. REGARDLESS...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND THERE IS
A CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS FOR THAT TO BE MOST PREVALENT FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS HOW LONG THE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES AND HOW MUCH FALLS THAT/S UNCERTAIN. THE 12 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DID TREND LOWER WITH POTENTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS THIS WEEKEND
SINCE THEY SIMULATED A FURTHER-SOUTH TRACK TO THEIR 500-MB LOWS...
BUT RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES IN THE POSITION OF THAT FEATURE ARE APT TO
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES.

OTHERWISE...EAST-NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR
A COOL PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S F MOST DAYS. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH
CENTRAL WY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT END BY 06 UTC. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
IN SOUTHEASTERN MT OVERNIGHT BECAUSE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE GROUND
WILL EASE WITH SUNSET WHILE THE WINDS BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 FT AGL
WILL STRENGTHEN NOCTURNALLY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/079 050/061 043/055 039/049 039/050 036/061 041/064
    22/T    42/W    22/W    33/W    55/W    54/W    32/W
LVM 042/075 043/061 038/050 034/048 035/046 032/059 037/063
    23/T    54/W    34/W    44/W    55/W    53/W    33/W
HDN 045/082 050/061 042/057 038/055 039/052 034/062 038/067
    11/B    44/W    22/W    23/W    55/W    54/W    32/W
MLS 047/079 051/062 041/058 038/055 038/053 036/059 038/065
    01/B    36/W    42/W    22/W    44/W    44/W    42/W
4BQ 046/075 051/061 043/056 037/054 038/050 035/054 038/063
    01/B    36/W    43/W    22/W    55/W    55/W    52/W
BHK 043/072 049/063 041/055 035/053 034/051 034/053 033/061
    01/N    38/W    63/W    22/W    44/W    44/W    42/W
SHR 043/073 047/055 039/054 036/053 037/048 033/055 035/063
    22/T    35/W    43/W    33/W    55/W    54/W    43/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041525
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
925 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MADE JUST A FEW CHANGES BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. JET DIVERGENCE FROM
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF DEPARTING JET...COMBINED WITH A
SHORTWAVE...WAS CREATING SHOWERS OVER SE MT THIS MORNING PER RADAR
IMAGERY. NOTED THAT HULETT WY IN NE WY REPORTED MODERATE RAIN FOR
A TIME. THE HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT IN THIS AREA TO GO CLOSER TO THIS MODEL. KEPT
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR E AFTER 18Z PER MODELS AS WELL. A FEW
RADAR ECHOES WERE ALSO MOVING OFF THE NE BIGHORNS AND APPEARED TO
BE GENERATED BY SE UPSLOPE FLOW. WEB CAMS DID NOT SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION...BUT ADDED A LOW POP OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING TO COVER POSSIBLE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WERE
APPROACHING THE SW MOUNTAINS FROM ID ON RADAR...SO HAD LOW POPS
OVER THESE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. NOTED AIRMASS WAS MOISTENING UP AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER S AND SE OF THE AREA HAVE TRENDED UP SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS
WAS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW
WAS CREATING GUSTY SE WINDS OVER KSHR AND SE MT THIS MORNING. HAVE
ADJUSTED WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST WIND
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TERRAIN-DRIVEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS MATCHED LATEST
GUIDANCE. THE SREF CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SURFACE CAPES OF AT
LEAST 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...AND SINCE THUNDER HAS BEEN
OCCURRING IN WY WITH SIMILAR CAPES THE PAST FEW AFTERNOONS...HAVE
INCREASED THUNDER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK.

RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE MIXING TO 700 MB CENTRAL AND W TODAY WITH
LESSER MIXING E OF KBIL. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD
GIVEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. RH/S WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE.

QUICK GLANCE AT TUE SHOWED SIMILAR CAPES TO TODAY WITH LITTLE
SHEAR...AND INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MAY
INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDER TUE AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING WHAT
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH
THEMSELVES.

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK RIDGING ALONG WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES BRINGING A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW RESULTING
IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND FAR
SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES
TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF
THE ENTIRE WEEK. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN
CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT PRESENTING AS
ENERGETIC OF A SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY A QUICK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SOME INSTABILITY. ALONG WITH IT THERE
WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ENERGY TO WORK WITH...SO THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES.
YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME...TO MORE A FILLING LOW/OPEN WAVE MOVING OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH ENERGY OR THE FORCING THAT
MODELS WERE ADVERTISING YESTERDAY. AS SUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LESS. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO NOT DO ANYTHING RADICAL TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE THE TREND OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER CLOUDY
AND SOMEWHAT RAINY CONDITIONS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL OTHERWISE PRE-
VAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT TODAY AS WELL. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 050/077 050/063 043/052 040/053 037/054 040/059
    1/B 12/T    33/T    34/W    33/W    45/W    53/W
LVM 073 042/077 044/063 039/047 035/049 032/052 033/059
    2/T 23/T    45/T    55/W    44/W    55/W    53/W
HDN 076 045/080 048/064 043/056 038/058 036/058 035/060
    1/B 11/B    33/T    33/W    33/W    45/W    43/W
MLS 070 047/076 051/064 042/057 039/058 036/056 038/058
    1/N 11/B    35/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    44/W
4BQ 067 044/073 049/063 043/057 038/057 035/055 037/056
    2/W 11/B    45/T    43/W    32/W    45/W    55/W
BHK 063 043/069 049/063 041/055 036/055 032/055 034/054
    2/W 01/N    47/T    54/W    22/W    34/W    54/W
SHR 070 043/074 048/059 041/054 036/056 034/054 036/055
    2/T 12/T    45/T    44/W    43/W    45/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041525
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
925 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MADE JUST A FEW CHANGES BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. JET DIVERGENCE FROM
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF DEPARTING JET...COMBINED WITH A
SHORTWAVE...WAS CREATING SHOWERS OVER SE MT THIS MORNING PER RADAR
IMAGERY. NOTED THAT HULETT WY IN NE WY REPORTED MODERATE RAIN FOR
A TIME. THE HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT IN THIS AREA TO GO CLOSER TO THIS MODEL. KEPT
LINGERING POPS IN THE FAR E AFTER 18Z PER MODELS AS WELL. A FEW
RADAR ECHOES WERE ALSO MOVING OFF THE NE BIGHORNS AND APPEARED TO
BE GENERATED BY SE UPSLOPE FLOW. WEB CAMS DID NOT SHOW ANY
PRECIPITATION...BUT ADDED A LOW POP OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING TO COVER POSSIBLE SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WERE
APPROACHING THE SW MOUNTAINS FROM ID ON RADAR...SO HAD LOW POPS
OVER THESE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. NOTED AIRMASS WAS MOISTENING UP AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER S AND SE OF THE AREA HAVE TRENDED UP SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS
WAS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW
WAS CREATING GUSTY SE WINDS OVER KSHR AND SE MT THIS MORNING. HAVE
ADJUSTED WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST WIND
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TERRAIN-DRIVEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS MATCHED LATEST
GUIDANCE. THE SREF CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SURFACE CAPES OF AT
LEAST 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...AND SINCE THUNDER HAS BEEN
OCCURRING IN WY WITH SIMILAR CAPES THE PAST FEW AFTERNOONS...HAVE
INCREASED THUNDER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK.

RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE MIXING TO 700 MB CENTRAL AND W TODAY WITH
LESSER MIXING E OF KBIL. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD
GIVEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. RH/S WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE.

QUICK GLANCE AT TUE SHOWED SIMILAR CAPES TO TODAY WITH LITTLE
SHEAR...AND INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MAY
INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDER TUE AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING WHAT
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH
THEMSELVES.

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK RIDGING ALONG WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES BRINGING A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW RESULTING
IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND FAR
SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES
TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF
THE ENTIRE WEEK. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN
CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT PRESENTING AS
ENERGETIC OF A SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY A QUICK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SOME INSTABILITY. ALONG WITH IT THERE
WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ENERGY TO WORK WITH...SO THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES.
YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME...TO MORE A FILLING LOW/OPEN WAVE MOVING OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH ENERGY OR THE FORCING THAT
MODELS WERE ADVERTISING YESTERDAY. AS SUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LESS. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO NOT DO ANYTHING RADICAL TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE THE TREND OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER CLOUDY
AND SOMEWHAT RAINY CONDITIONS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL OTHERWISE PRE-
VAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT TODAY AS WELL. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 050/077 050/063 043/052 040/053 037/054 040/059
    1/B 12/T    33/T    34/W    33/W    45/W    53/W
LVM 073 042/077 044/063 039/047 035/049 032/052 033/059
    2/T 23/T    45/T    55/W    44/W    55/W    53/W
HDN 076 045/080 048/064 043/056 038/058 036/058 035/060
    1/B 11/B    33/T    33/W    33/W    45/W    43/W
MLS 070 047/076 051/064 042/057 039/058 036/056 038/058
    1/N 11/B    35/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    44/W
4BQ 067 044/073 049/063 043/057 038/057 035/055 037/056
    2/W 11/B    45/T    43/W    32/W    45/W    55/W
BHK 063 043/069 049/063 041/055 036/055 032/055 034/054
    2/W 01/N    47/T    54/W    22/W    34/W    54/W
SHR 070 043/074 048/059 041/054 036/056 034/054 036/055
    2/T 12/T    45/T    44/W    43/W    45/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040939
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
339 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH
THEMSELVES.

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK RIDGING ALONG WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES BRINGING A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW RESULTING
IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND FAR
SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES
TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF
THE ENTIRE WEEK. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN
CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT PRESENTING AS
ENERGETIC OF A SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY A QUICK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRING A SOME INSTABILITY. ALONG WITH THERE
WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ENERGY TO WORK WITH...SO THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES.
YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME...TO MORE A FILLING LOW/OPEN WAVE MOVING OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH ENERGY OR THE FORCING THAT
MODELS WERE ADVERTISING YESTERDAY. AS SUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LESS. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO NOT DO ANYTHING RADICAL TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE THE TREND OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER CLOUDY
AND SOMEWHAT RAINY CONDITIONS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...POSSIBLE IMPACTING LIVINGSTON AND
SHERIDAN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM MILES CITY
EAST...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUST
UP TO 30 KNOTS. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 050/077 050/063 043/052 040/053 037/054 040/059
    1/B 12/T    33/T    34/W    33/W    45/W    53/W
LVM 074 042/077 044/063 039/047 035/049 032/052 033/059
    2/T 23/T    45/T    55/W    44/W    55/W    53/W
HDN 074 045/080 048/064 043/056 038/058 036/058 035/060
    1/B 11/B    33/T    33/W    33/W    45/W    43/W
MLS 070 047/076 051/064 042/057 039/058 036/056 038/058
    1/N 11/B    35/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    44/W
4BQ 065 044/073 049/063 043/057 038/057 035/055 037/056
    3/W 11/B    45/T    43/W    32/W    45/W    55/W
BHK 062 043/069 049/063 041/055 036/055 032/055 034/054
    2/T 01/N    47/T    54/W    22/W    34/W    54/W
SHR 070 043/074 048/059 041/054 036/056 034/054 036/055
    2/T 12/T    45/T    44/W    43/W    45/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040939
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
339 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH
THEMSELVES.

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK RIDGING ALONG WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES BRINGING A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW RESULTING
IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING AND FAR
SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES
TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF
THE ENTIRE WEEK. READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN
CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT PRESENTING AS
ENERGETIC OF A SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY A QUICK SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRING A SOME INSTABILITY. ALONG WITH THERE
WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ENERGY TO WORK WITH...SO THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES.
YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME...TO MORE A FILLING LOW/OPEN WAVE MOVING OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH ENERGY OR THE FORCING THAT
MODELS WERE ADVERTISING YESTERDAY. AS SUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LESS. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO NOT DO ANYTHING RADICAL TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE THE TREND OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER CLOUDY
AND SOMEWHAT RAINY CONDITIONS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...POSSIBLE IMPACTING LIVINGSTON AND
SHERIDAN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM MILES CITY
EAST...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUST
UP TO 30 KNOTS. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 050/077 050/063 043/052 040/053 037/054 040/059
    1/B 12/T    33/T    34/W    33/W    45/W    53/W
LVM 074 042/077 044/063 039/047 035/049 032/052 033/059
    2/T 23/T    45/T    55/W    44/W    55/W    53/W
HDN 074 045/080 048/064 043/056 038/058 036/058 035/060
    1/B 11/B    33/T    33/W    33/W    45/W    43/W
MLS 070 047/076 051/064 042/057 039/058 036/056 038/058
    1/N 11/B    35/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    44/W
4BQ 065 044/073 049/063 043/057 038/057 035/055 037/056
    3/W 11/B    45/T    43/W    32/W    45/W    55/W
BHK 062 043/069 049/063 041/055 036/055 032/055 034/054
    2/T 01/N    47/T    54/W    22/W    34/W    54/W
SHR 070 043/074 048/059 041/054 036/056 034/054 036/055
    2/T 12/T    45/T    44/W    43/W    45/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040238
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
838 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS INCREASING ALONG THE MT WY BORDER AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW LINES UP WITH EXIT REGION OF THE JET. INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CARTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES AS A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR IS HELPING CREATE LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
AND WILL GIVE THAT AREA A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MOISTURE REACH
THE GROUND. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

SPRINKLES WERE GRADUALLY EXITING SE MT PER RADAR IMAGERY/WEBCAMS
THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE ECHOES JUST S OF MT/WY BORDER OVER
THE ABSAROKAS. DEPARTING UPPER JET WILL KEEP SOME LIFT FROM THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE S THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS IN MOUNTAINS. DRIED OUT THE
SW OVERNIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MON WITH
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. SREF HAD SURFACE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG FROM KBIL TO
THE NE BIGHORNS W MON AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG DUE TO THE HIGH
CAPE. SHEAR...HOWEVER...WAS WEAK. MON WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH MIXING CLOSE TO 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ZERO TO +4
DEGREES C. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MON EVENING...THEN DRIED OUT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

THE SPLIT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUE WITH AN
OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE NORTHERN
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. LOWERED POPS TUE MORNING...THEN
KEPT POPS FROM KBIL TO KSHR W TUE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. CAPES AND SHEAR ON THE SREF WERE SIMILAR TO MON/S VALUES
AND WERE IN THE SAME LOCATION AS MON. HOWEVER...THE SREF GENERATED
HIGHER QPF ON TUE THAN MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TUE EVENING. LOWERED POPS OVER THE E AS MOISTURE WILL
TAKE TIME TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO A HALF INCH W TO AN INCH IN THE
SE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LOW WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN...UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATH WOULD BE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND DEEPER UPSLOPE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH...THE LATEST
GFS ADVERTISING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND SE MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
THE OVERALL THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY TO NEXT SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOTHING APPEARS
TO BE A HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE IN
PLACE...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS
ESPECIALLY IF SNOW STARTS TO BECOME A FACTOR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY SETTING UP AS OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KSHR AND EXTREME SOUTHERN CARTER AND POWDER
RIVER COUNTIES. ANTICIPATE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
FRIEDERS/BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/074 048/077 048/065 045/051 040/053 041/056 040/059
    11/B    12/T    34/T    35/W    43/W    56/W    54/W
LVM 038/073 042/075 042/062 039/047 035/049 036/052 035/062
    12/T    23/T    55/T    46/W    44/W    56/W    54/W
HDN 044/076 045/080 048/067 044/054 040/056 040/062 037/060
    21/B    11/B    33/T    34/W    33/W    46/W    53/W
MLS 045/069 047/076 049/067 044/059 041/060 042/059 039/056
    11/N    11/B    34/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    54/W
4BQ 045/065 044/073 049/066 045/059 042/056 040/058 038/054
    43/W    11/B    45/T    33/W    33/W    45/W    55/W
BHK 040/062 041/069 047/064 043/058 038/057 038/054 038/053
    12/W    01/N    46/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    55/W
SHR 042/069 042/072 045/063 041/054 038/055 039/056 036/056
    41/B    12/T    44/T    34/W    44/W    56/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040238
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
838 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS INCREASING ALONG THE MT WY BORDER AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW LINES UP WITH EXIT REGION OF THE JET. INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CARTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES AS A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR IS HELPING CREATE LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
AND WILL GIVE THAT AREA A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MOISTURE REACH
THE GROUND. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

SPRINKLES WERE GRADUALLY EXITING SE MT PER RADAR IMAGERY/WEBCAMS
THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE ECHOES JUST S OF MT/WY BORDER OVER
THE ABSAROKAS. DEPARTING UPPER JET WILL KEEP SOME LIFT FROM THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE S THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS IN MOUNTAINS. DRIED OUT THE
SW OVERNIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MON WITH
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. SREF HAD SURFACE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG FROM KBIL TO
THE NE BIGHORNS W MON AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG DUE TO THE HIGH
CAPE. SHEAR...HOWEVER...WAS WEAK. MON WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH MIXING CLOSE TO 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ZERO TO +4
DEGREES C. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MON EVENING...THEN DRIED OUT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

THE SPLIT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUE WITH AN
OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE NORTHERN
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. LOWERED POPS TUE MORNING...THEN
KEPT POPS FROM KBIL TO KSHR W TUE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. CAPES AND SHEAR ON THE SREF WERE SIMILAR TO MON/S VALUES
AND WERE IN THE SAME LOCATION AS MON. HOWEVER...THE SREF GENERATED
HIGHER QPF ON TUE THAN MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TUE EVENING. LOWERED POPS OVER THE E AS MOISTURE WILL
TAKE TIME TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO A HALF INCH W TO AN INCH IN THE
SE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LOW WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN...UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATH WOULD BE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND DEEPER UPSLOPE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH...THE LATEST
GFS ADVERTISING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND SE MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
THE OVERALL THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY TO NEXT SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOTHING APPEARS
TO BE A HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE IN
PLACE...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS
ESPECIALLY IF SNOW STARTS TO BECOME A FACTOR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY SETTING UP AS OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KSHR AND EXTREME SOUTHERN CARTER AND POWDER
RIVER COUNTIES. ANTICIPATE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
FRIEDERS/BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/074 048/077 048/065 045/051 040/053 041/056 040/059
    11/B    12/T    34/T    35/W    43/W    56/W    54/W
LVM 038/073 042/075 042/062 039/047 035/049 036/052 035/062
    12/T    23/T    55/T    46/W    44/W    56/W    54/W
HDN 044/076 045/080 048/067 044/054 040/056 040/062 037/060
    21/B    11/B    33/T    34/W    33/W    46/W    53/W
MLS 045/069 047/076 049/067 044/059 041/060 042/059 039/056
    11/N    11/B    34/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    54/W
4BQ 045/065 044/073 049/066 045/059 042/056 040/058 038/054
    43/W    11/B    45/T    33/W    33/W    45/W    55/W
BHK 040/062 041/069 047/064 043/058 038/057 038/054 038/053
    12/W    01/N    46/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    55/W
SHR 042/069 042/072 045/063 041/054 038/055 039/056 036/056
    41/B    12/T    44/T    34/W    44/W    56/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040238
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
838 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS INCREASING ALONG THE MT WY BORDER AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW LINES UP WITH EXIT REGION OF THE JET. INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CARTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES AS A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR IS HELPING CREATE LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
AND WILL GIVE THAT AREA A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MOISTURE REACH
THE GROUND. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

SPRINKLES WERE GRADUALLY EXITING SE MT PER RADAR IMAGERY/WEBCAMS
THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE ECHOES JUST S OF MT/WY BORDER OVER
THE ABSAROKAS. DEPARTING UPPER JET WILL KEEP SOME LIFT FROM THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE S THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS IN MOUNTAINS. DRIED OUT THE
SW OVERNIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MON WITH
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. SREF HAD SURFACE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG FROM KBIL TO
THE NE BIGHORNS W MON AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG DUE TO THE HIGH
CAPE. SHEAR...HOWEVER...WAS WEAK. MON WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH MIXING CLOSE TO 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ZERO TO +4
DEGREES C. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MON EVENING...THEN DRIED OUT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

THE SPLIT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUE WITH AN
OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE NORTHERN
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. LOWERED POPS TUE MORNING...THEN
KEPT POPS FROM KBIL TO KSHR W TUE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. CAPES AND SHEAR ON THE SREF WERE SIMILAR TO MON/S VALUES
AND WERE IN THE SAME LOCATION AS MON. HOWEVER...THE SREF GENERATED
HIGHER QPF ON TUE THAN MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TUE EVENING. LOWERED POPS OVER THE E AS MOISTURE WILL
TAKE TIME TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO A HALF INCH W TO AN INCH IN THE
SE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LOW WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN...UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATH WOULD BE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND DEEPER UPSLOPE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH...THE LATEST
GFS ADVERTISING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND SE MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
THE OVERALL THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY TO NEXT SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOTHING APPEARS
TO BE A HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE IN
PLACE...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS
ESPECIALLY IF SNOW STARTS TO BECOME A FACTOR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY SETTING UP AS OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KSHR AND EXTREME SOUTHERN CARTER AND POWDER
RIVER COUNTIES. ANTICIPATE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
FRIEDERS/BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/074 048/077 048/065 045/051 040/053 041/056 040/059
    11/B    12/T    34/T    35/W    43/W    56/W    54/W
LVM 038/073 042/075 042/062 039/047 035/049 036/052 035/062
    12/T    23/T    55/T    46/W    44/W    56/W    54/W
HDN 044/076 045/080 048/067 044/054 040/056 040/062 037/060
    21/B    11/B    33/T    34/W    33/W    46/W    53/W
MLS 045/069 047/076 049/067 044/059 041/060 042/059 039/056
    11/N    11/B    34/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    54/W
4BQ 045/065 044/073 049/066 045/059 042/056 040/058 038/054
    43/W    11/B    45/T    33/W    33/W    45/W    55/W
BHK 040/062 041/069 047/064 043/058 038/057 038/054 038/053
    12/W    01/N    46/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    55/W
SHR 042/069 042/072 045/063 041/054 038/055 039/056 036/056
    41/B    12/T    44/T    34/W    44/W    56/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 032019
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
219 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

SPRINKLES WERE GRADUALLY EXITING SE MT PER RADAR IMAGERY/WEBCAMS
THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE ECHOES JUST S OF MT/WY BORDER OVER
THE ABSAROKAS. DEPARTING UPPER JET WILL KEEP SOME LIFT FROM THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE S THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS IN MOUNTAINS. DRIED OUT THE
SW OVERNIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MON WITH
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. SREF HAD SURFACE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG FROM KBIL TO
THE NE BIGHORNS W MON AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG DUE TO THE HIGH
CAPE. SHEAR...HOWEVER...WAS WEAK. MON WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH MIXING CLOSE TO 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ZERO TO +4
DEGREES C. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MON EVENING...THEN DRIED OUT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

THE SPLIT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUE WITH AN
OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE NORTHERN
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. LOWERED POPS TUE MORNING...THEN
KEPT POPS FROM KBIL TO KSHR W TUE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. CAPES AND SHEAR ON THE SREF WERE SIMILAR TO MON/S VALUES
AND WERE IN THE SAME LOCATION AS MON. HOWEVER...THE SREF GENERATED
HIGHER QPF ON TUE THAN MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TUE EVENING. LOWERED POPS OVER THE E AS MOISTURE WILL
TAKE TIME TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO A HALF INCH W TO AN INCH IN THE
SE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LOW WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN...UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATH WOULD BE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND DEEPER UPSLOPE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH...THE LATEST
GFS ADVERTISING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND SE MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
THE OVERALL THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY TO NEXT SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOTHING APPEARS
TO BE A HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE IN
PLACE...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS
ESPECIALLY IF SNOW STARTS TO BECOME A FACTOR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY SETTING UP AS OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL MOVE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KSHR. ANTICIPATE
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/074 048/077 048/065 045/051 040/053 041/056 040/059
    11/B    12/T    34/T    35/W    43/W    56/W    54/W
LVM 038/073 042/075 042/062 039/047 035/049 036/052 035/062
    12/T    23/T    55/T    46/W    44/W    56/W    54/W
HDN 044/076 045/080 048/067 044/054 040/056 040/062 037/060
    21/B    11/B    33/T    34/W    33/W    46/W    53/W
MLS 045/069 047/076 049/067 044/059 041/060 042/059 039/056
    11/N    11/B    34/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    54/W
4BQ 045/065 044/073 049/066 045/059 042/056 040/058 038/054
    53/W    11/B    45/T    33/W    33/W    45/W    55/W
BHK 040/062 041/069 047/064 043/058 038/057 038/054 038/053
    12/W    01/N    46/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    55/W
SHR 042/069 042/072 045/063 041/054 038/055 039/056 036/056
    41/B    12/T    44/T    34/W    44/W    56/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 032019
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
219 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

SPRINKLES WERE GRADUALLY EXITING SE MT PER RADAR IMAGERY/WEBCAMS
THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE ECHOES JUST S OF MT/WY BORDER OVER
THE ABSAROKAS. DEPARTING UPPER JET WILL KEEP SOME LIFT FROM THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE S THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS IN MOUNTAINS. DRIED OUT THE
SW OVERNIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MON WITH
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. SREF HAD SURFACE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG FROM KBIL TO
THE NE BIGHORNS W MON AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG DUE TO THE HIGH
CAPE. SHEAR...HOWEVER...WAS WEAK. MON WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH MIXING CLOSE TO 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ZERO TO +4
DEGREES C. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MON EVENING...THEN DRIED OUT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

THE SPLIT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUE WITH AN
OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE NORTHERN
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. LOWERED POPS TUE MORNING...THEN
KEPT POPS FROM KBIL TO KSHR W TUE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. CAPES AND SHEAR ON THE SREF WERE SIMILAR TO MON/S VALUES
AND WERE IN THE SAME LOCATION AS MON. HOWEVER...THE SREF GENERATED
HIGHER QPF ON TUE THAN MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TUE EVENING. LOWERED POPS OVER THE E AS MOISTURE WILL
TAKE TIME TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO A HALF INCH W TO AN INCH IN THE
SE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LOW WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN...UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATH WOULD BE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND DEEPER UPSLOPE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH...THE LATEST
GFS ADVERTISING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND SE MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
THE OVERALL THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY TO NEXT SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOTHING APPEARS
TO BE A HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE IN
PLACE...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS
ESPECIALLY IF SNOW STARTS TO BECOME A FACTOR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY SETTING UP AS OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL MOVE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KSHR. ANTICIPATE
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/074 048/077 048/065 045/051 040/053 041/056 040/059
    11/B    12/T    34/T    35/W    43/W    56/W    54/W
LVM 038/073 042/075 042/062 039/047 035/049 036/052 035/062
    12/T    23/T    55/T    46/W    44/W    56/W    54/W
HDN 044/076 045/080 048/067 044/054 040/056 040/062 037/060
    21/B    11/B    33/T    34/W    33/W    46/W    53/W
MLS 045/069 047/076 049/067 044/059 041/060 042/059 039/056
    11/N    11/B    34/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    54/W
4BQ 045/065 044/073 049/066 045/059 042/056 040/058 038/054
    53/W    11/B    45/T    33/W    33/W    45/W    55/W
BHK 040/062 041/069 047/064 043/058 038/057 038/054 038/053
    12/W    01/N    46/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    55/W
SHR 042/069 042/072 045/063 041/054 038/055 039/056 036/056
    41/B    12/T    44/T    34/W    44/W    56/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 032019
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
219 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

SPRINKLES WERE GRADUALLY EXITING SE MT PER RADAR IMAGERY/WEBCAMS
THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE ECHOES JUST S OF MT/WY BORDER OVER
THE ABSAROKAS. DEPARTING UPPER JET WILL KEEP SOME LIFT FROM THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE S THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS IN MOUNTAINS. DRIED OUT THE
SW OVERNIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MON WITH
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. SREF HAD SURFACE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG FROM KBIL TO
THE NE BIGHORNS W MON AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG DUE TO THE HIGH
CAPE. SHEAR...HOWEVER...WAS WEAK. MON WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH MIXING CLOSE TO 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ZERO TO +4
DEGREES C. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MON EVENING...THEN DRIED OUT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

THE SPLIT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUE WITH AN
OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE NORTHERN
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. LOWERED POPS TUE MORNING...THEN
KEPT POPS FROM KBIL TO KSHR W TUE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. CAPES AND SHEAR ON THE SREF WERE SIMILAR TO MON/S VALUES
AND WERE IN THE SAME LOCATION AS MON. HOWEVER...THE SREF GENERATED
HIGHER QPF ON TUE THAN MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TUE EVENING. LOWERED POPS OVER THE E AS MOISTURE WILL
TAKE TIME TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO A HALF INCH W TO AN INCH IN THE
SE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LOW WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN...UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATH WOULD BE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND DEEPER UPSLOPE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH...THE LATEST
GFS ADVERTISING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND SE MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
THE OVERALL THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY TO NEXT SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOTHING APPEARS
TO BE A HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE IN
PLACE...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS
ESPECIALLY IF SNOW STARTS TO BECOME A FACTOR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY SETTING UP AS OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL MOVE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KSHR. ANTICIPATE
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/074 048/077 048/065 045/051 040/053 041/056 040/059
    11/B    12/T    34/T    35/W    43/W    56/W    54/W
LVM 038/073 042/075 042/062 039/047 035/049 036/052 035/062
    12/T    23/T    55/T    46/W    44/W    56/W    54/W
HDN 044/076 045/080 048/067 044/054 040/056 040/062 037/060
    21/B    11/B    33/T    34/W    33/W    46/W    53/W
MLS 045/069 047/076 049/067 044/059 041/060 042/059 039/056
    11/N    11/B    34/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    54/W
4BQ 045/065 044/073 049/066 045/059 042/056 040/058 038/054
    53/W    11/B    45/T    33/W    33/W    45/W    55/W
BHK 040/062 041/069 047/064 043/058 038/057 038/054 038/053
    12/W    01/N    46/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    55/W
SHR 042/069 042/072 045/063 041/054 038/055 039/056 036/056
    41/B    12/T    44/T    34/W    44/W    56/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 032019
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
219 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

SPRINKLES WERE GRADUALLY EXITING SE MT PER RADAR IMAGERY/WEBCAMS
THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE ECHOES JUST S OF MT/WY BORDER OVER
THE ABSAROKAS. DEPARTING UPPER JET WILL KEEP SOME LIFT FROM THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE S THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS IN MOUNTAINS. DRIED OUT THE
SW OVERNIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MON WITH
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. SREF HAD SURFACE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG FROM KBIL TO
THE NE BIGHORNS W MON AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG DUE TO THE HIGH
CAPE. SHEAR...HOWEVER...WAS WEAK. MON WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH MIXING CLOSE TO 700 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ZERO TO +4
DEGREES C. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MON EVENING...THEN DRIED OUT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

THE SPLIT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUE WITH AN
OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE NORTHERN
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. LOWERED POPS TUE MORNING...THEN
KEPT POPS FROM KBIL TO KSHR W TUE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. CAPES AND SHEAR ON THE SREF WERE SIMILAR TO MON/S VALUES
AND WERE IN THE SAME LOCATION AS MON. HOWEVER...THE SREF GENERATED
HIGHER QPF ON TUE THAN MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TUE EVENING. LOWERED POPS OVER THE E AS MOISTURE WILL
TAKE TIME TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TUE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO A HALF INCH W TO AN INCH IN THE
SE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LOW WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN...UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATH WOULD BE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND DEEPER UPSLOPE. SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH...THE LATEST
GFS ADVERTISING COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND SE MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
THE OVERALL THEME WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY TO NEXT SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW...NOTHING APPEARS
TO BE A HIGH IMPACT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE IN
PLACE...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS
ESPECIALLY IF SNOW STARTS TO BECOME A FACTOR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY SETTING UP AS OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL MOVE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KSHR. ANTICIPATE
SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/074 048/077 048/065 045/051 040/053 041/056 040/059
    11/B    12/T    34/T    35/W    43/W    56/W    54/W
LVM 038/073 042/075 042/062 039/047 035/049 036/052 035/062
    12/T    23/T    55/T    46/W    44/W    56/W    54/W
HDN 044/076 045/080 048/067 044/054 040/056 040/062 037/060
    21/B    11/B    33/T    34/W    33/W    46/W    53/W
MLS 045/069 047/076 049/067 044/059 041/060 042/059 039/056
    11/N    11/B    34/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    54/W
4BQ 045/065 044/073 049/066 045/059 042/056 040/058 038/054
    53/W    11/B    45/T    33/W    33/W    45/W    55/W
BHK 040/062 041/069 047/064 043/058 038/057 038/054 038/053
    12/W    01/N    46/T    33/W    22/W    34/W    55/W
SHR 042/069 042/072 045/063 041/054 038/055 039/056 036/056
    41/B    12/T    44/T    34/W    44/W    56/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031505
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
905 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR FROM S OF KBIL THROUGH SE MT THIS MORNING
WERE MAINLY MID CLOUDS PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES. WEB CAMS SHOWED DRY CONDITIONS.

SPRINKLES/MID CLOUDS WERE BEING INDUCED BY WEAK RIGHT-REAR JET
QUADRANT UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
FROM THE 90 KT JET TO THE N OF THE AREA. NEW WRF SHOWED MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA OF RADAR ECHOES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WILL END BY 18Z AS FRONTOGENESIS MOVES OUT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER WESTERN AREAS BY 00Z TONIGHT.
TRIMMED BACK THE SPRINKLES TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT RADAR ECHOES
AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE NE BIGHORNS THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WERE FINE AND NO MENTION OF THUNDER MADE
SENSE GIVEN THE LOW CAPES ON THE SREF...AND RAP SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS LOOKED GOOD TODAY. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...AND WIND SPEEDS BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE. KLVM TENDS TO BECOME GUSTY WITH AN E WIND.

LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND MON WHILE ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. POPS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH CLEARING JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS FROM ABOUT BIG
HORN COUNTY EAST TO THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THIS IS VIRGA AS TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE QUITE HIGH
AND CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 11K FEET. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WHICH IS NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BUCKLE SOMEWHAT
RESULTING IN WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA...AS WELL AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
A SLIGHT SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO OUR FAR
WESTERN AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH
AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST...THE BETTER SHOWER CHANCES WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
60S OUT TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HOOLEY


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM...WETTER AND COOLER. TUESDAY THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST AS IT DIGS SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A SHOT AT RAIN...BUT MOSTLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
AS THE LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN LIFTS INTO WYOMING. THIS WILL BRING
THE GREATEST ENERGY MOVING THROUGH COINCIDENT WITH SOME DECENT
FORCING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE PRECIP...SO HAVE NOT GOTTEN TOO
SPECIFIC. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S
FOR HIGHS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. REIMER/FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 045/075 050/076 047/065 045/051 040/053 041/058
    1/B 11/B    12/T    54/T    34/W    44/W    55/W
LVM 066 038/074 043/075 041/062 039/047 035/049 036/059
    2/W 12/T    23/T    55/T    45/W    44/W    55/W
HDN 067 043/078 045/079 046/067 044/054 040/056 040/062
    1/B 21/B    12/T    43/T    34/W    33/W    44/W
MLS 066 045/073 049/076 050/067 044/059 041/060 042/060
    0/B 11/N    11/B    44/T    33/W    33/W    34/W
4BQ 066 043/070 046/074 048/066 045/059 042/056 040/060
    1/B 32/W    11/N    45/T    33/W    33/W    44/W
BHK 064 039/067 045/070 047/064 043/058 038/057 038/056
    1/B 12/W    11/N    46/T    33/W    22/W    34/W
SHR 065 043/072 044/072 044/063 041/054 038/055 039/057
    2/W 32/T    22/T    44/T    34/W    44/W    55/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031505
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
905 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR FROM S OF KBIL THROUGH SE MT THIS MORNING
WERE MAINLY MID CLOUDS PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES. WEB CAMS SHOWED DRY CONDITIONS.

SPRINKLES/MID CLOUDS WERE BEING INDUCED BY WEAK RIGHT-REAR JET
QUADRANT UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
FROM THE 90 KT JET TO THE N OF THE AREA. NEW WRF SHOWED MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA OF RADAR ECHOES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WILL END BY 18Z AS FRONTOGENESIS MOVES OUT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER WESTERN AREAS BY 00Z TONIGHT.
TRIMMED BACK THE SPRINKLES TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT RADAR ECHOES
AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE NE BIGHORNS THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WERE FINE AND NO MENTION OF THUNDER MADE
SENSE GIVEN THE LOW CAPES ON THE SREF...AND RAP SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS LOOKED GOOD TODAY. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...AND WIND SPEEDS BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE. KLVM TENDS TO BECOME GUSTY WITH AN E WIND.

LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND MON WHILE ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. POPS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH CLEARING JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS FROM ABOUT BIG
HORN COUNTY EAST TO THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THIS IS VIRGA AS TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE QUITE HIGH
AND CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 11K FEET. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WHICH IS NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BUCKLE SOMEWHAT
RESULTING IN WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA...AS WELL AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
A SLIGHT SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO OUR FAR
WESTERN AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH
AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST...THE BETTER SHOWER CHANCES WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
60S OUT TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HOOLEY


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM...WETTER AND COOLER. TUESDAY THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST AS IT DIGS SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A SHOT AT RAIN...BUT MOSTLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
AS THE LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN LIFTS INTO WYOMING. THIS WILL BRING
THE GREATEST ENERGY MOVING THROUGH COINCIDENT WITH SOME DECENT
FORCING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE PRECIP...SO HAVE NOT GOTTEN TOO
SPECIFIC. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S
FOR HIGHS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. REIMER/FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 045/075 050/076 047/065 045/051 040/053 041/058
    1/B 11/B    12/T    54/T    34/W    44/W    55/W
LVM 066 038/074 043/075 041/062 039/047 035/049 036/059
    2/W 12/T    23/T    55/T    45/W    44/W    55/W
HDN 067 043/078 045/079 046/067 044/054 040/056 040/062
    1/B 21/B    12/T    43/T    34/W    33/W    44/W
MLS 066 045/073 049/076 050/067 044/059 041/060 042/060
    0/B 11/N    11/B    44/T    33/W    33/W    34/W
4BQ 066 043/070 046/074 048/066 045/059 042/056 040/060
    1/B 32/W    11/N    45/T    33/W    33/W    44/W
BHK 064 039/067 045/070 047/064 043/058 038/057 038/056
    1/B 12/W    11/N    46/T    33/W    22/W    34/W
SHR 065 043/072 044/072 044/063 041/054 038/055 039/057
    2/W 32/T    22/T    44/T    34/W    44/W    55/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031505
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
905 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR FROM S OF KBIL THROUGH SE MT THIS MORNING
WERE MAINLY MID CLOUDS PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES. WEB CAMS SHOWED DRY CONDITIONS.

SPRINKLES/MID CLOUDS WERE BEING INDUCED BY WEAK RIGHT-REAR JET
QUADRANT UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
FROM THE 90 KT JET TO THE N OF THE AREA. NEW WRF SHOWED MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA OF RADAR ECHOES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WILL END BY 18Z AS FRONTOGENESIS MOVES OUT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER WESTERN AREAS BY 00Z TONIGHT.
TRIMMED BACK THE SPRINKLES TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT RADAR ECHOES
AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE NE BIGHORNS THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WERE FINE AND NO MENTION OF THUNDER MADE
SENSE GIVEN THE LOW CAPES ON THE SREF...AND RAP SOUNDINGS.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS LOOKED GOOD TODAY. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...AND WIND SPEEDS BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE. KLVM TENDS TO BECOME GUSTY WITH AN E WIND.

LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND MON WHILE ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. POPS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH CLEARING JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS FROM ABOUT BIG
HORN COUNTY EAST TO THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THIS IS VIRGA AS TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE QUITE HIGH
AND CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 11K FEET. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WHICH IS NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BUCKLE SOMEWHAT
RESULTING IN WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA...AS WELL AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
A SLIGHT SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO OUR FAR
WESTERN AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH
AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST...THE BETTER SHOWER CHANCES WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
60S OUT TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HOOLEY


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM...WETTER AND COOLER. TUESDAY THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST AS IT DIGS SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A SHOT AT RAIN...BUT MOSTLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
AS THE LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN LIFTS INTO WYOMING. THIS WILL BRING
THE GREATEST ENERGY MOVING THROUGH COINCIDENT WITH SOME DECENT
FORCING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE PRECIP...SO HAVE NOT GOTTEN TOO
SPECIFIC. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S
FOR HIGHS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. REIMER/FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 045/075 050/076 047/065 045/051 040/053 041/058
    1/B 11/B    12/T    54/T    34/W    44/W    55/W
LVM 066 038/074 043/075 041/062 039/047 035/049 036/059
    2/W 12/T    23/T    55/T    45/W    44/W    55/W
HDN 067 043/078 045/079 046/067 044/054 040/056 040/062
    1/B 21/B    12/T    43/T    34/W    33/W    44/W
MLS 066 045/073 049/076 050/067 044/059 041/060 042/060
    0/B 11/N    11/B    44/T    33/W    33/W    34/W
4BQ 066 043/070 046/074 048/066 045/059 042/056 040/060
    1/B 32/W    11/N    45/T    33/W    33/W    44/W
BHK 064 039/067 045/070 047/064 043/058 038/057 038/056
    1/B 12/W    11/N    46/T    33/W    22/W    34/W
SHR 065 043/072 044/072 044/063 041/054 038/055 039/057
    2/W 32/T    22/T    44/T    34/W    44/W    55/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030945
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
345 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH CLEARING JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS FROM ABOUT BIG
HORN COUNTY EAST TO THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THIS IS VIRGA AS TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE QUITE HIGH
AND CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 11K FEET. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WHICH IS NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BUCKLE SOMEWHAT
RESULTING IN WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA...AS WELL AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
A SLIGHT SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO OUR FAR
WESTERN AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH
AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST...THE BETTER SHOWER CHANCES WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
60S OUT TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM...WETTER AND COOLER. TUESDAY THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST AS IT DIGS SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A SHOT AT RAIN...BUT MOSTLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
AS THE LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN LIFTS INTO WYOMING. THIS WILL BRING
THE GREATEST ENERGY MOVING THROUGH COINCIDENT WITH SOME DECENT
FORCING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE PRECIP...SO HAVE NOT GOTTEN TO
SPECIFIC. WITH THE INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 043/076 048/076 047/063 043/053 038/059 042/059
    1/B 11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    44/W    55/W
LVM 066 037/074 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/053 036/059
    1/B 12/T    23/T    44/T    45/W    54/W    55/W
HDN 067 043/078 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/061 041/064
    1/B 21/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    34/W    55/W
MLS 066 043/073 048/077 050/066 042/054 037/060 042/062
    0/B 11/B    12/T    43/T    33/W    33/W    34/W
4BQ 066 043/070 046/075 049/064 043/054 035/057 041/059
    1/B 32/W    12/T    44/T    43/W    33/W    45/W
BHK 063 038/068 043/070 049/061 041/055 033/056 038/059
    1/B 12/W    11/N    44/T    43/W    22/W    44/W
SHR 065 041/070 042/073 045/061 040/053 033/056 038/054
    2/T 32/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    45/W    67/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030208
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
808 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE
DRY AND TRAJECTORY ON WATER VAPOR INDICATES REGION IS IN A DRY
SLOT EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EVENING SOUNDINGS
ARE GENERALLY .40 PRECIPITABLE WATER OR LESS AND THIS IS EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS NOTED ON BOWMAN RADAR ONLY YIELDED 10000
FOOT CEILINGS AT BAKER. WILL BE VIRGA OUT AND ABOUT BUT WILL NOT
SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN AND
MON. THE FIRST CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT OVER
N MT THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES S THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN A SHIFT TO NE WINDS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN.

WEAK CAPE WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND JET DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET
TO THE N WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTED THEM E INTO SE MT
OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. MORE LIFT
FROM A JET WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES
WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. CONTINUED WITH POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SPREAD
POPS FURTHER E ACROSS THE S PART OF THE AREA SUN EVENING. MODELS
SHOWED WEAK OVERRUNNING OVER THE REGION AND DISAGREED AS TO HOW
FAR N TO EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
OVER THE E PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT...USHERING IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN. THIS JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY AND SE MT LATE
SUN NIGHT. HIGHS SUN WILL REACH THE 60S.

ON MON...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA DUE TO
THE STRONG SE TO S FLOW. SREF SHOWED POSSIBLE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BUT NO SHEAR. LOWERED POPS MON
MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION...THEN KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MON EVENING...AND
WILL BE FURTHER ONTO THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN WANE MON NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S MON.
ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE GENERAL THEME FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS COOLER
AND WETTER. PATTERN CERTAINLY LOOKING MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD PRECIPITATION.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHUCK OF ENERGY DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR REGION SUPPORTED BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. EXPECTING PIECES OF ENERGY TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE SHOWERS AT TIME. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE DYNAMICS AND DEEPEN AN UPSLOPE FLOW FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON HOW THINGS SET UP. WHILE CERTAINLY THE TIMING/DETAILS TOO
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES 6-8 DAYS OUT. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 043/076 048/076 047/063 043/053 038/059 042/059
    11/B    11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    44/W    55/W
LVM 037/066 037/074 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/053 036/059
    11/B    12/T    23/T    44/T    45/W    54/W    55/W
HDN 044/067 043/078 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/061 041/064
    11/B    21/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    34/W    55/W
MLS 045/066 043/073 048/077 050/066 042/054 037/060 042/062
    10/B    11/B    12/T    43/T    33/W    33/W    34/W
4BQ 046/066 043/070 046/075 049/064 043/054 035/057 041/059
    11/B    32/W    12/T    44/T    43/W    33/W    45/W
BHK 042/063 038/068 043/070 049/061 041/055 033/056 038/059
    11/B    12/W    11/N    44/T    43/W    22/W    44/W
SHR 042/065 041/070 042/073 045/061 040/053 033/056 038/054
    12/T    32/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    45/W    67/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030208
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
808 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE
DRY AND TRAJECTORY ON WATER VAPOR INDICATES REGION IS IN A DRY
SLOT EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EVENING SOUNDINGS
ARE GENERALLY .40 PRECIPITABLE WATER OR LESS AND THIS IS EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS NOTED ON BOWMAN RADAR ONLY YIELDED 10000
FOOT CEILINGS AT BAKER. WILL BE VIRGA OUT AND ABOUT BUT WILL NOT
SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN AND
MON. THE FIRST CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT OVER
N MT THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES S THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN A SHIFT TO NE WINDS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN.

WEAK CAPE WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND JET DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET
TO THE N WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTED THEM E INTO SE MT
OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. MORE LIFT
FROM A JET WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES
WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. CONTINUED WITH POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SPREAD
POPS FURTHER E ACROSS THE S PART OF THE AREA SUN EVENING. MODELS
SHOWED WEAK OVERRUNNING OVER THE REGION AND DISAGREED AS TO HOW
FAR N TO EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
OVER THE E PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT...USHERING IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN. THIS JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY AND SE MT LATE
SUN NIGHT. HIGHS SUN WILL REACH THE 60S.

ON MON...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA DUE TO
THE STRONG SE TO S FLOW. SREF SHOWED POSSIBLE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BUT NO SHEAR. LOWERED POPS MON
MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION...THEN KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MON EVENING...AND
WILL BE FURTHER ONTO THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN WANE MON NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S MON.
ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE GENERAL THEME FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS COOLER
AND WETTER. PATTERN CERTAINLY LOOKING MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD PRECIPITATION.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHUCK OF ENERGY DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR REGION SUPPORTED BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. EXPECTING PIECES OF ENERGY TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE SHOWERS AT TIME. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE DYNAMICS AND DEEPEN AN UPSLOPE FLOW FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON HOW THINGS SET UP. WHILE CERTAINLY THE TIMING/DETAILS TOO
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES 6-8 DAYS OUT. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 043/076 048/076 047/063 043/053 038/059 042/059
    11/B    11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    44/W    55/W
LVM 037/066 037/074 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/053 036/059
    11/B    12/T    23/T    44/T    45/W    54/W    55/W
HDN 044/067 043/078 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/061 041/064
    11/B    21/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    34/W    55/W
MLS 045/066 043/073 048/077 050/066 042/054 037/060 042/062
    10/B    11/B    12/T    43/T    33/W    33/W    34/W
4BQ 046/066 043/070 046/075 049/064 043/054 035/057 041/059
    11/B    32/W    12/T    44/T    43/W    33/W    45/W
BHK 042/063 038/068 043/070 049/061 041/055 033/056 038/059
    11/B    12/W    11/N    44/T    43/W    22/W    44/W
SHR 042/065 041/070 042/073 045/061 040/053 033/056 038/054
    12/T    32/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    45/W    67/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030208
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
808 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE
DRY AND TRAJECTORY ON WATER VAPOR INDICATES REGION IS IN A DRY
SLOT EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EVENING SOUNDINGS
ARE GENERALLY .40 PRECIPITABLE WATER OR LESS AND THIS IS EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS NOTED ON BOWMAN RADAR ONLY YIELDED 10000
FOOT CEILINGS AT BAKER. WILL BE VIRGA OUT AND ABOUT BUT WILL NOT
SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN AND
MON. THE FIRST CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT OVER
N MT THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES S THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN A SHIFT TO NE WINDS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN.

WEAK CAPE WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND JET DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET
TO THE N WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTED THEM E INTO SE MT
OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. MORE LIFT
FROM A JET WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES
WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. CONTINUED WITH POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SPREAD
POPS FURTHER E ACROSS THE S PART OF THE AREA SUN EVENING. MODELS
SHOWED WEAK OVERRUNNING OVER THE REGION AND DISAGREED AS TO HOW
FAR N TO EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
OVER THE E PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT...USHERING IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN. THIS JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY AND SE MT LATE
SUN NIGHT. HIGHS SUN WILL REACH THE 60S.

ON MON...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA DUE TO
THE STRONG SE TO S FLOW. SREF SHOWED POSSIBLE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BUT NO SHEAR. LOWERED POPS MON
MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION...THEN KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MON EVENING...AND
WILL BE FURTHER ONTO THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN WANE MON NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S MON.
ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE GENERAL THEME FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS COOLER
AND WETTER. PATTERN CERTAINLY LOOKING MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD PRECIPITATION.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHUCK OF ENERGY DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR REGION SUPPORTED BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. EXPECTING PIECES OF ENERGY TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE SHOWERS AT TIME. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE DYNAMICS AND DEEPEN AN UPSLOPE FLOW FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON HOW THINGS SET UP. WHILE CERTAINLY THE TIMING/DETAILS TOO
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES 6-8 DAYS OUT. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 043/076 048/076 047/063 043/053 038/059 042/059
    11/B    11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    44/W    55/W
LVM 037/066 037/074 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/053 036/059
    11/B    12/T    23/T    44/T    45/W    54/W    55/W
HDN 044/067 043/078 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/061 041/064
    11/B    21/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    34/W    55/W
MLS 045/066 043/073 048/077 050/066 042/054 037/060 042/062
    10/B    11/B    12/T    43/T    33/W    33/W    34/W
4BQ 046/066 043/070 046/075 049/064 043/054 035/057 041/059
    11/B    32/W    12/T    44/T    43/W    33/W    45/W
BHK 042/063 038/068 043/070 049/061 041/055 033/056 038/059
    11/B    12/W    11/N    44/T    43/W    22/W    44/W
SHR 042/065 041/070 042/073 045/061 040/053 033/056 038/054
    12/T    32/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    45/W    67/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030208
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
808 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS IS STILL QUITE
DRY AND TRAJECTORY ON WATER VAPOR INDICATES REGION IS IN A DRY
SLOT EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EVENING SOUNDINGS
ARE GENERALLY .40 PRECIPITABLE WATER OR LESS AND THIS IS EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS NOTED ON BOWMAN RADAR ONLY YIELDED 10000
FOOT CEILINGS AT BAKER. WILL BE VIRGA OUT AND ABOUT BUT WILL NOT
SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN AND
MON. THE FIRST CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT OVER
N MT THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES S THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN A SHIFT TO NE WINDS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN.

WEAK CAPE WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND JET DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET
TO THE N WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTED THEM E INTO SE MT
OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. MORE LIFT
FROM A JET WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES
WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. CONTINUED WITH POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SPREAD
POPS FURTHER E ACROSS THE S PART OF THE AREA SUN EVENING. MODELS
SHOWED WEAK OVERRUNNING OVER THE REGION AND DISAGREED AS TO HOW
FAR N TO EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
OVER THE E PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT...USHERING IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN. THIS JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY AND SE MT LATE
SUN NIGHT. HIGHS SUN WILL REACH THE 60S.

ON MON...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA DUE TO
THE STRONG SE TO S FLOW. SREF SHOWED POSSIBLE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BUT NO SHEAR. LOWERED POPS MON
MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION...THEN KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MON EVENING...AND
WILL BE FURTHER ONTO THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN WANE MON NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S MON.
ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE GENERAL THEME FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS COOLER
AND WETTER. PATTERN CERTAINLY LOOKING MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDEPSREAD PRECIPITATION.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHUCK OF ENERGY DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR REGION SUPPORTED BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. EXPECTING PIECES OF ENERGY TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE SHOWERS AT TIME. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE DYNAMICS AND DEEPEN AN UPSLOPE FLOW FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON HOW THINGS SET UP. WHILE CERTAINLY THE TIMING/DETAILS TOO
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES 6-8 DAYS OUT. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 043/076 048/076 047/063 043/053 038/059 042/059
    11/B    11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    44/W    55/W
LVM 037/066 037/074 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/053 036/059
    11/B    12/T    23/T    44/T    45/W    54/W    55/W
HDN 044/067 043/078 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/061 041/064
    11/B    21/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    34/W    55/W
MLS 045/066 043/073 048/077 050/066 042/054 037/060 042/062
    10/B    11/B    12/T    43/T    33/W    33/W    34/W
4BQ 046/066 043/070 046/075 049/064 043/054 035/057 041/059
    11/B    32/W    12/T    44/T    43/W    33/W    45/W
BHK 042/063 038/068 043/070 049/061 041/055 033/056 038/059
    11/B    12/W    11/N    44/T    43/W    22/W    44/W
SHR 042/065 041/070 042/073 045/061 040/053 033/056 038/054
    12/T    32/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    45/W    67/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022021
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
221 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN AND
MON. THE FIRST CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT OVER
N MT THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES S THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN A SHIFT TO NE WINDS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN.

WEAK CAPE WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND JET DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET
TO THE N WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTED THEM E INTO SE MT
OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. MORE LIFT
FROM A JET WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES
WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. CONTINUED WITH POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SPREAD
POPS FURTHER E ACROSS THE S PART OF THE AREA SUN EVENING. MODELS
SHOWED WEAK OVERRUNNING OVER THE REGION AND DISAGREED AS TO HOW
FAR N TO EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
OVER THE E PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT...USHERING IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN. THIS JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY AND SE MT LATE
SUN NIGHT. HIGHS SUN WILL REACH THE 60S.

ON MON...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA DUE TO
THE STRONG SE TO S FLOW. SREF SHOWED POSSIBLE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BUT NO SHEAR. LOWERED POPS MON
MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION...THEN KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MON EVENING...AND
WILL BE FURTHER ONTO THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN WANE MON NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S MON.
ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE GENERAL THEME FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS COOLER
AND WETTER. PATTERN CERTAINLY LOOKING MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHUCK OF ENERGY DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR REGION SUPPORTED BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. EXPECTING PIECES OF ENERGY TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE SHOWERS AT TIME. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE DYNAMICS AND DEEPEN AN UPSLOPE FLOW FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON HOW THINGS SET UP. WHILE CERTAINLY THE TIMING/DETAILS TOO
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES 6-8 DAYS OUT. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 043/076 048/076 047/063 043/053 038/059 042/059
    11/B    11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    44/W    55/W
LVM 037/066 037/074 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/053 036/059
    11/B    12/T    23/T    44/T    45/W    54/W    55/W
HDN 044/067 043/078 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/061 041/064
    21/B    21/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    34/W    55/W
MLS 045/066 043/073 048/077 050/066 042/054 037/060 042/062
    10/B    11/B    12/T    43/T    33/W    33/W    34/W
4BQ 046/066 043/070 046/075 049/064 043/054 035/057 041/059
    21/B    32/W    12/T    44/T    43/W    33/W    45/W
BHK 042/063 038/068 043/070 049/061 041/055 033/056 038/059
    21/B    12/W    11/N    44/T    43/W    22/W    44/W
SHR 042/065 041/070 042/073 045/061 040/053 033/056 038/054
    22/T    32/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    45/W    67/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022021
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
221 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUN AND
MON. THE FIRST CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT OVER
N MT THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES S THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN A SHIFT TO NE WINDS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUN.

WEAK CAPE WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND JET DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A JET
TO THE N WILL PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTED THEM E INTO SE MT
OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. MORE LIFT
FROM A JET WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES
WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. CONTINUED WITH POPS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SPREAD
POPS FURTHER E ACROSS THE S PART OF THE AREA SUN EVENING. MODELS
SHOWED WEAK OVERRUNNING OVER THE REGION AND DISAGREED AS TO HOW
FAR N TO EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
OVER THE E PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT...USHERING IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN. THIS JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY AND SE MT LATE
SUN NIGHT. HIGHS SUN WILL REACH THE 60S.

ON MON...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA DUE TO
THE STRONG SE TO S FLOW. SREF SHOWED POSSIBLE CAPES OVER 500 J/KG
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BUT NO SHEAR. LOWERED POPS MON
MORNING AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION...THEN KEPT POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MON EVENING...AND
WILL BE FURTHER ONTO THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
THEN WANE MON NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S MON.
ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE GENERAL THEME FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS COOLER
AND WETTER. PATTERN CERTAINLY LOOKING MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHUCK OF ENERGY DIGGING DEEP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR REGION SUPPORTED BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. EXPECTING PIECES OF ENERGY TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE SHOWERS AT TIME. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE DYNAMICS AND DEEPEN AN UPSLOPE FLOW FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON HOW THINGS SET UP. WHILE CERTAINLY THE TIMING/DETAILS TOO
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES 6-8 DAYS OUT. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 043/076 048/076 047/063 043/053 038/059 042/059
    11/B    11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    44/W    55/W
LVM 037/066 037/074 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/053 036/059
    11/B    12/T    23/T    44/T    45/W    54/W    55/W
HDN 044/067 043/078 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/061 041/064
    21/B    21/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    34/W    55/W
MLS 045/066 043/073 048/077 050/066 042/054 037/060 042/062
    10/B    11/B    12/T    43/T    33/W    33/W    34/W
4BQ 046/066 043/070 046/075 049/064 043/054 035/057 041/059
    21/B    32/W    12/T    44/T    43/W    33/W    45/W
BHK 042/063 038/068 043/070 049/061 041/055 033/056 038/059
    21/B    12/W    11/N    44/T    43/W    22/W    44/W
SHR 042/065 041/070 042/073 045/061 040/053 033/056 038/054
    22/T    32/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    45/W    67/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021502
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
902 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER SOME AREAS DUE TO WINDS ALREADY KICKING
UP IN KLVM...KBIL AND KBHK...AND DUE TO THE STRONG INVERTED-V
NATURE OF RAP SOUNDINGS AND GOOD W FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALSO
ADJUSTED MORNING SKY COVER WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION.

COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING N MT PER 14Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FRONT
WAS NOT OVERLY STRONG WITH ONLY A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND NO REAL DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE. MODELS HAD
THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...THEN
SINKING S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING NE. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOCUSED OVER THE S MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...LIFT WAS LIMITED WITH LITTLE JET DIVERGENCE AND ONLY
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. NOTED THE HRRR TRIED TO DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION NEAR KMLS...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BEING SO DRY...THIS
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY.

CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING
THEN SHIFT E OVERNIGHT. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

FAIRLY UNEVENTFULL WEEKEND IN STORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FAST AND
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S WITH POSSIBLY AN 80 DEGREE READING FOR A FEW AREAS.

STRONGER JET DYNAMICS STAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A SMALL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF
COLORADO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL MAINLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING BUT THE
NORTHERN EDGE MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG THE
MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE FOR
THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
RUNS. THEY CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THE GENERAL SOLUTION THE GFS
HAS BEEN PRESENTING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF A PACIFIC LOW
MOVING ON SHORE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE SPECIFICS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE WELL AS BETWEEN THE GFS...EC...AND GEM. WITH THE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY. ALSO THERE
IS SOME CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH THE
AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW. WITH SOME LIFT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE FLOW. THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 60S. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. REIMER/FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 045/066 044/077 048/078 047/063 043/053 038/060
    0/B 11/B    11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    33/W
LVM 074 036/066 038/075 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/058
    1/N 11/B    12/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    33/W
HDN 081 042/069 042/080 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/062
    0/B 11/B    21/B    12/T    43/T    44/W    32/W
MLS 080 045/067 043/075 049/078 050/066 042/054 037/061
    1/B 11/B    12/W    12/T    43/T    33/W    32/W
4BQ 080 044/067 044/073 047/076 049/064 043/054 035/061
    0/B 11/B    32/T    12/T    44/T    43/W    22/W
BHK 079 040/064 038/071 044/072 049/061 041/055 033/058
    0/B 21/B    12/T    11/N    44/T    43/W    33/W
SHR 077 043/065 043/071 043/073 045/061 040/053 033/057
    0/B 12/W    22/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021502
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
902 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER SOME AREAS DUE TO WINDS ALREADY KICKING
UP IN KLVM...KBIL AND KBHK...AND DUE TO THE STRONG INVERTED-V
NATURE OF RAP SOUNDINGS AND GOOD W FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALSO
ADJUSTED MORNING SKY COVER WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION.

COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING N MT PER 14Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FRONT
WAS NOT OVERLY STRONG WITH ONLY A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND NO REAL DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE. MODELS HAD
THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 00Z...THEN
SINKING S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING NE. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOCUSED OVER THE S MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...LIFT WAS LIMITED WITH LITTLE JET DIVERGENCE AND ONLY
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. NOTED THE HRRR TRIED TO DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION NEAR KMLS...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS BEING SO DRY...THIS
WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY.

CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING
THEN SHIFT E OVERNIGHT. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

FAIRLY UNEVENTFULL WEEKEND IN STORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FAST AND
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S WITH POSSIBLY AN 80 DEGREE READING FOR A FEW AREAS.

STRONGER JET DYNAMICS STAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A SMALL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF
COLORADO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL MAINLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING BUT THE
NORTHERN EDGE MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG THE
MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE FOR
THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
RUNS. THEY CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THE GENERAL SOLUTION THE GFS
HAS BEEN PRESENTING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF A PACIFIC LOW
MOVING ON SHORE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE SPECIFICS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE WELL AS BETWEEN THE GFS...EC...AND GEM. WITH THE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY. ALSO THERE
IS SOME CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH THE
AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW. WITH SOME LIFT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE FLOW. THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 60S. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. REIMER/FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 045/066 044/077 048/078 047/063 043/053 038/060
    0/B 11/B    11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    33/W
LVM 074 036/066 038/075 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/058
    1/N 11/B    12/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    33/W
HDN 081 042/069 042/080 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/062
    0/B 11/B    21/B    12/T    43/T    44/W    32/W
MLS 080 045/067 043/075 049/078 050/066 042/054 037/061
    1/B 11/B    12/W    12/T    43/T    33/W    32/W
4BQ 080 044/067 044/073 047/076 049/064 043/054 035/061
    0/B 11/B    32/T    12/T    44/T    43/W    22/W
BHK 079 040/064 038/071 044/072 049/061 041/055 033/058
    0/B 21/B    12/T    11/N    44/T    43/W    33/W
SHR 077 043/065 043/071 043/073 045/061 040/053 033/057
    0/B 12/W    22/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020953
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
353 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

FAIRLY UNEVENTFULL WEEKEND IN STORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FAST AND
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S WITH POSSIBLY AN 80 DEGREE READING FOR A FEW AREAS.

STRONGER JET DYNAMICS STAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A SMALL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF
COLORADO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL MAINLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING BUT THE
NORTHERN EDGE MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG THE
MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE FOR
THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
RUNS. THEY CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THE GENERAL SOLUTION THE GFS
HAS BEEN PRESENTING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF A PACIFIC LOW
MOVING ON SHORE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE SPECIFICS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE WELL AS BETWEEN THE GFS...EC...AND GEM. WITH THE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE...HAVE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY. ALSO THERE
IS SOME CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH THE
AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW. WITH SOME LIFT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE FOLLOW. THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 045/066 044/077 048/078 047/063 043/053 038/060
    0/B 11/B    11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    33/W
LVM 074 036/066 038/075 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/058
    1/N 11/B    12/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    33/W
HDN 081 042/069 042/080 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/062
    0/B 11/B    21/B    12/T    43/T    44/W    32/W
MLS 080 045/067 043/075 049/078 050/066 042/054 037/061
    1/B 11/B    12/W    12/T    43/T    33/W    32/W
4BQ 080 044/067 044/073 047/076 049/064 043/054 035/061
    0/B 11/B    32/T    12/T    44/T    43/W    22/W
BHK 079 040/064 038/071 044/072 049/061 041/055 033/058
    0/B 21/B    12/T    11/N    44/T    43/W    33/W
SHR 077 043/065 043/071 043/073 045/061 040/053 033/057
    0/U 12/W    22/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020953
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
353 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

FAIRLY UNEVENTFULL WEEKEND IN STORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FAST AND
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S WITH POSSIBLY AN 80 DEGREE READING FOR A FEW AREAS.

STRONGER JET DYNAMICS STAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A SMALL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF
COLORADO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL MAINLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING BUT THE
NORTHERN EDGE MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG THE
MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE FOR
THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
RUNS. THEY CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THE GENERAL SOLUTION THE GFS
HAS BEEN PRESENTING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF A PACIFIC LOW
MOVING ON SHORE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE SPECIFICS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE WELL AS BETWEEN THE GFS...EC...AND GEM. WITH THE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE...HAVE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY. ALSO THERE
IS SOME CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH THE
AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW. WITH SOME LIFT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE FOLLOW. THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 045/066 044/077 048/078 047/063 043/053 038/060
    0/B 11/B    11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    33/W
LVM 074 036/066 038/075 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/058
    1/N 11/B    12/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    33/W
HDN 081 042/069 042/080 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/062
    0/B 11/B    21/B    12/T    43/T    44/W    32/W
MLS 080 045/067 043/075 049/078 050/066 042/054 037/061
    1/B 11/B    12/W    12/T    43/T    33/W    32/W
4BQ 080 044/067 044/073 047/076 049/064 043/054 035/061
    0/B 11/B    32/T    12/T    44/T    43/W    22/W
BHK 079 040/064 038/071 044/072 049/061 041/055 033/058
    0/B 21/B    12/T    11/N    44/T    43/W    33/W
SHR 077 043/065 043/071 043/073 045/061 040/053 033/057
    0/U 12/W    22/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020300
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
900 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE PLANNED. MILD EVENING WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH FOR
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO REDUCE POPS SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

UPPER JET TO THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIG FURTHER S DURING
SAT DRIVING A COLD FRONT S THROUGH THE AREA. THE JET WILL PROVIDE
JET DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM IT/S
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT. SREF SHOWED CAPES BELOW 500 J/KG OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WITH STEEP 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS WERE INVERTED-V. MODELS ALSO CONTINUED TO SHOW ANY QPF
CONFINED TO OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THE WRF HAD
SOME QPF ENCROACHING ON THE NE ZONES. WITH THE LOW-LEVELS LOOKING
SO DRY...HAVE OPTED TO CONFINE LOW POPS TO OVER AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. KEPT A LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST SAT AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SAT
WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW-
LEVEL FLOW TURNS ENE SAT EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
GENERATED LIGHT QPF OVER THE SE ZONES AFTER 06Z...BUT WITH AIRMASS
STABILIZING AND JUST WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...WILL LEAVE THIS TIME
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

LOW RH/S ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SAT...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THOUGH...AS
RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS LOWERED RISK OF HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER.

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A MORE
STABLE SUN. WEAK ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SE
ZONES SUN NIGHT. THE GFS LINGERED SOME QPF OVER THE SE LATE SUN
NIGHT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WERE ON THE DRY SIDE. SINCE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD SOME POPS OVER THE SE AND PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...HAVE LEFT POPS IN THIS AREA. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE 60S. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SOME SENSIBLE
WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE REGION UNDER ZONAL FLOW.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO COME AROUND ON THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SAID SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION. SCALED BACK EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ON THE POPS AS THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT AS SUCCINCT AS IT HAS BEEN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS STILL A CONNECTION TO GULF MOISTURE...BUT THE MAIN
PORTION OF THE PRECIP MAY FALL EAST OF THE BYZ CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS STILL SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...SO KEPT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THERE FOR ONE MORE FORECAST PACKAGE...EVEN THOUGH WE
ARE GROWING LESS CONFIDENT OF A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SITUATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM PASSES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. NO FLIGHT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/078 043/066 043/075 047/080 047/060 039/052 037/062
    00/B    11/B    12/W    22/T    22/T    34/T    22/W
LVM 040/073 036/067 038/075 042/076 041/057 035/049 031/064
    01/B    11/B    12/T    23/T    33/T    44/T    33/W
HDN 043/081 042/069 042/078 045/081 046/063 039/051 035/064
    00/B    11/B    22/W    22/T    33/T    34/T    22/W
MLS 046/079 043/066 042/074 048/077 049/064 042/054 038/063
    00/B    10/B    12/W    12/T    33/T    33/T    22/W
4BQ 044/080 044/067 044/071 048/074 049/062 041/053 036/063
    00/U    11/B    32/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    22/W
BHK 044/078 040/064 038/067 043/071 048/062 040/055 034/060
    00/B    11/B    13/T    11/N    34/T    33/T    33/W
SHR 041/077 040/065 040/071 043/072 044/058 039/051 031/059
    00/U    11/B    23/T    23/T    33/T    34/T    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020300
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
900 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE PLANNED. MILD EVENING WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH FOR
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO REDUCE POPS SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

UPPER JET TO THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIG FURTHER S DURING
SAT DRIVING A COLD FRONT S THROUGH THE AREA. THE JET WILL PROVIDE
JET DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM IT/S
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT. SREF SHOWED CAPES BELOW 500 J/KG OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS WITH STEEP 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS WERE INVERTED-V. MODELS ALSO CONTINUED TO SHOW ANY QPF
CONFINED TO OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THE WRF HAD
SOME QPF ENCROACHING ON THE NE ZONES. WITH THE LOW-LEVELS LOOKING
SO DRY...HAVE OPTED TO CONFINE LOW POPS TO OVER AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. KEPT A LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST SAT AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SAT
WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW-
LEVEL FLOW TURNS ENE SAT EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
GENERATED LIGHT QPF OVER THE SE ZONES AFTER 06Z...BUT WITH AIRMASS
STABILIZING AND JUST WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...WILL LEAVE THIS TIME
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

LOW RH/S ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SAT...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THOUGH...AS
RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS LOWERED RISK OF HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER.

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A MORE
STABLE SUN. WEAK ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SE
ZONES SUN NIGHT. THE GFS LINGERED SOME QPF OVER THE SE LATE SUN
NIGHT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS WERE ON THE DRY SIDE. SINCE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD SOME POPS OVER THE SE AND PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...HAVE LEFT POPS IN THIS AREA. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...IN THE 60S. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SOME SENSIBLE
WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH THE REGION UNDER ZONAL FLOW.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BY TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO COME AROUND ON THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SAID SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION. SCALED BACK EVER SO
SLIGHTLY ON THE POPS AS THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT AS SUCCINCT AS IT HAS BEEN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS STILL A CONNECTION TO GULF MOISTURE...BUT THE MAIN
PORTION OF THE PRECIP MAY FALL EAST OF THE BYZ CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS STILL SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...SO KEPT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THERE FOR ONE MORE FORECAST PACKAGE...EVEN THOUGH WE
ARE GROWING LESS CONFIDENT OF A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SITUATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF AFTER THE MID WEEK SYSTEM PASSES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. NO FLIGHT HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/078 043/066 043/075 047/080 047/060 039/052 037/062
    00/B    11/B    12/W    22/T    22/T    34/T    22/W
LVM 040/073 036/067 038/075 042/076 041/057 035/049 031/064
    01/B    11/B    12/T    23/T    33/T    44/T    33/W
HDN 043/081 042/069 042/078 045/081 046/063 039/051 035/064
    00/B    11/B    22/W    22/T    33/T    34/T    22/W
MLS 046/079 043/066 042/074 048/077 049/064 042/054 038/063
    00/B    10/B    12/W    12/T    33/T    33/T    22/W
4BQ 044/080 044/067 044/071 048/074 049/062 041/053 036/063
    00/U    11/B    32/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    22/W
BHK 044/078 040/064 038/067 043/071 048/062 040/055 034/060
    00/B    11/B    13/T    11/N    34/T    33/T    33/W
SHR 041/077 040/065 040/071 043/072 044/058 039/051 031/059
    00/U    11/B    23/T    23/T    33/T    34/T    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





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