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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291652
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1052 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR MILES CITY AND COLSTRIP GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
AS UPPER SUPPORT WANES THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER OUR SOUTH TODAY...ON NORTHERN FRINGES OF DEEPER MONSOONAL
PLUME IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME UNORGANIZED
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST MT BETWEEN NOW AND MID AFTN...A SHORT WINDOW HERE...BUT
OTHERWISE WE WILL BEGIN MIXING DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS PASSES. HAVE MADE A FEW MORE POP
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
    1/B 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
    2/T 11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
    1/B 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
    2/T 11/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
    1/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
    2/T 21/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291652
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1052 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR MILES CITY AND COLSTRIP GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
AS UPPER SUPPORT WANES THIS MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVER OUR SOUTH TODAY...ON NORTHERN FRINGES OF DEEPER MONSOONAL
PLUME IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WOULD EXPECT SOME UNORGANIZED
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST MT BETWEEN NOW AND MID AFTN...A SHORT WINDOW HERE...BUT
OTHERWISE WE WILL BEGIN MIXING DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS PASSES. HAVE MADE A FEW MORE POP
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
    1/B 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
    2/T 11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
    1/B 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
    2/T 11/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
    1/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
    2/T 21/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291432
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXISTS FROM A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS TO A
NEAR ROCK SPRINGS...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PCPN IS
IN RESPONSE TO RRQ JET DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHEAST MT MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
THIS UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKENING...SO FEEL THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS THE HRRR
SUGGESTS. OTHERWISE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE LATER
TODAY. DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE EXISTS TO OUR S/SW NEAR WEAK LOW IN
UTAH...AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. FOR THE
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY...AND
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
REINFORCED TODAY. WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR
90F...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
    1/B 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
    2/T 11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
    2/T 01/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
    1/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
    2/T 01/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291432
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXISTS FROM A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS TO A
NEAR ROCK SPRINGS...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PCPN IS
IN RESPONSE TO RRQ JET DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHEAST MT MOVING TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
THIS UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKENING...SO FEEL THAT THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS THE HRRR
SUGGESTS. OTHERWISE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE LATER
TODAY. DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE EXISTS TO OUR S/SW NEAR WEAK LOW IN
UTAH...AND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. FOR THE
UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY...AND
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE
REINFORCED TODAY. WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR
90F...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAP TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. WE BELIEVE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AFTER 18 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT
ACTIVITY...BUT VFR WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
    1/B 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
    2/T 11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
    2/T 01/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
    1/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
    2/T 01/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290921
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A SERIES OF MONSOONAL IMPULSES ARE MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST EAST OF LEWISTOWN. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR IS HANDLING THE NORTHERN CONVECTION BEST AND
HAS IT TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS THIS SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. REST OF POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING LOOK GOOD. THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE
MONSOONAL PLUME...SUPPRESSING IT SOUTHWARD. THUS...FORCING BY
TOMORROW WILL BE WEAKER WITH DRIER MID LEVELS...SO THE POPS WILL
BE MAINLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPS...YESTERDAYS HIGHS AROUND 90F SHOULD FALL A FEW
DEGREES FOR TODAY WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EASTERLY FLOW...THEN
CLIMB BACK A FEW DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A LIMITED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
IMPACTED AREA ALSO VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT TEND BE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN BROADER COVERAGE OF THE ECMWF...BASED ON THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE FLOW...WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND SHOULD BE
PRETTY WET SYSTEMS WITH THE TAPE TO MONSOONAL FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP POPS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...JUST TO GET MENTION IN THE FORECAST IS CASE PATTERN TURNS
DRY AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 90
EACH DAY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE COOLED INHERITED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
STILL PUTS FORECAST TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 80S. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS FROM RED LODGE TO SHERIDAN...AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMLS. LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS PERSIST
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN ROUTES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE AREA. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/087 062/088
    1/B 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/087 053/089 055/091 055/087 053/083 055/085
    2/T 11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 089 057/091 057/091 061/093 061/090 059/088 062/091
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/091 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/087 064/089
    2/T 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
4BQ 087 058/088 058/088 060/092 062/089 060/086 063/089
    1/B 01/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 085 054/086 055/086 059/089 059/086 057/083 060/086
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T
SHR 085 052/086 053/086 057/089 057/085 055/083 057/086
    2/T 01/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290255
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
855 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS RESULTED
IN SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS FROM BIG HORN COUNTY WEST. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVOCATE FOR MORE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-90 FROM ABOUT
2 AM THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW. SPREAD ISOLATED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTHEAST TONIGHT TO COVER THIS...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ONLY A FEW CELLS WITH MOST AREAS THAT SEE ANY
PRECIP GETTING ONLY A LIGHT SHOWER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP IN NORTHWEST WY AND OVER OUR
SW MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. OUR
REMAINING LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND SFC EAST WINDS...BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED MID AND
HIGH CLOUD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
FROM WA TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL ROUND THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND DROP
INTO ND TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE MONSOONAL
PLUME...WITH BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BIG HORNS
TOMORROW. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE
QPF OVER THE BIG HORNS TOMORROW SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME.
OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW...SO EXPECT A
REDUCED CHANCE OF MTN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. POP GRIDS
REFLECT THIS TREND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS NEAR 90F SHOULD FALL A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...THEN CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR 90F ON WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH TO SAY HERE WITH TEMPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS IT LOOKS NOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THESE SHOULD MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 25-30C
RANGE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT TO BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO THE PLAINS
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT AND SEE A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING VFR
CEILINGS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MOISTURE. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/091 062/093
    22/T    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 057/088 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/087 053/087 055/090
    22/T    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 062/089 057/090 058/091 061/093 061/090 059/092 062/096
    22/T    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 063/089 059/090 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/091 064/094
    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 061/087 057/088 059/088 060/092 062/089 060/090 063/094
    10/B    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 056/085 054/085 056/086 059/089 059/086 057/087 060/091
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 058/085 052/087 054/086 057/089 057/085 055/087 057/091
    22/T    11/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290255
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
855 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED IN HIGHER DEW POINTS. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS RESULTED
IN SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS FROM BIG HORN COUNTY WEST. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVOCATE FOR MORE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-90 FROM ABOUT
2 AM THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW. SPREAD ISOLATED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTHEAST TONIGHT TO COVER THIS...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ONLY A FEW CELLS WITH MOST AREAS THAT SEE ANY
PRECIP GETTING ONLY A LIGHT SHOWER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP IN NORTHWEST WY AND OVER OUR
SW MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. OUR
REMAINING LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND SFC EAST WINDS...BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED MID AND
HIGH CLOUD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
FROM WA TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL ROUND THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND DROP
INTO ND TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE MONSOONAL
PLUME...WITH BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BIG HORNS
TOMORROW. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE
QPF OVER THE BIG HORNS TOMORROW SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME.
OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW...SO EXPECT A
REDUCED CHANCE OF MTN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. POP GRIDS
REFLECT THIS TREND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS NEAR 90F SHOULD FALL A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...THEN CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR 90F ON WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH TO SAY HERE WITH TEMPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS IT LOOKS NOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THESE SHOULD MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 25-30C
RANGE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT TO BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO THE PLAINS
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT AND SEE A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING VFR
CEILINGS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MOISTURE. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/091 062/093
    22/T    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 057/088 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/087 053/087 055/090
    22/T    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 062/089 057/090 058/091 061/093 061/090 059/092 062/096
    22/T    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 063/089 059/090 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/091 064/094
    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 061/087 057/088 059/088 060/092 062/089 060/090 063/094
    10/B    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 056/085 054/085 056/086 059/089 059/086 057/087 060/091
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 058/085 052/087 054/086 057/089 057/085 055/087 057/091
    22/T    11/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282033
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
233 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP IN NORTHWEST WY AND OVER OUR
SW MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. OUR
REMAINING LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND SFC EAST WINDS...BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED MID AND
HIGH CLOUD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
FROM WA TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL ROUND THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND DROP
INTO ND TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE MONSOONAL
PLUME...WITH BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BIG HORNS
TOMORROW. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE
QPF OVER THE BIG HORNS TOMORROW SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME.
OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW...SO EXPECT A
REDUCED CHANCE OF MTN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. POP GRIDS
REFLECT THIS TREND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS NEAR 90F SHOULD FALL A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...THEN CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR 90F ON WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH TO SAY HERE WITH TEMPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS IT LOOKS NOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THESE SHOULD MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 25-30C
RANGE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT TO BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO THE PLAINS
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT AND SEE A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR CONDITION/MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY
BEFORE 06Z. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/091 062/093
    00/B    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 055/088 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/087 053/087 055/090
    11/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 058/089 057/090 058/091 061/093 061/090 059/092 062/096
    00/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 061/089 059/090 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/091 064/094
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 059/087 057/088 059/088 060/092 062/089 060/090 063/094
    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 054/085 054/085 056/086 059/089 059/086 057/087 060/091
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 056/085 052/087 054/086 057/089 057/085 055/087 057/091
    12/T    11/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282033
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
233 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT.
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP IN NORTHWEST WY AND OVER OUR
SW MTNS. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. OUR
REMAINING LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND SFC EAST WINDS...BUT WE WILL SEE INCREASED MID AND
HIGH CLOUD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING
FROM WA TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL ROUND THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND DROP
INTO ND TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE MONSOONAL
PLUME...WITH BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE BIG HORNS
TOMORROW. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE
QPF OVER THE BIG HORNS TOMORROW SO HAVE RAISED POPS SOME.
OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW...SO EXPECT A
REDUCED CHANCE OF MTN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. POP GRIDS
REFLECT THIS TREND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS NEAR 90F SHOULD FALL A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...THEN CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR 90F ON WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH TO SAY HERE WITH TEMPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR NORMAL AND IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS IT LOOKS NOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA.
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT THESE SHOULD MAINLY BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 25-30C
RANGE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT TO BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND THIS MAY BRING A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO THE PLAINS
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL WAIT AND SEE A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR CONDITION/MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY
BEFORE 06Z. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/087 060/089 062/089 062/091 064/089 060/091 062/093
    00/B    00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 055/088 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/087 053/087 055/090
    11/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 058/089 057/090 058/091 061/093 061/090 059/092 062/096
    00/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 061/089 059/090 061/089 064/093 064/091 062/091 064/094
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 059/087 057/088 059/088 060/092 062/089 060/090 063/094
    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 054/085 054/085 056/086 059/089 059/086 057/087 060/091
    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 056/085 052/087 054/086 057/089 057/085 055/087 057/091
    12/T    11/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281508
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
908 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS EXTENDED THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT TODAY. AT 9 AM...WEAK ECHOES
EVIDENT ON TFX RADAR NEAR DLN/BTM/BZN. 12Z RAOBS SHOW PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES UPSTREAM AT BOISE AND SALT LAKE CITY...WITH
FAIRLY MOIST PROFILES ABOVE 600MB. ALL OF THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY...AND
HAVE RAISED POPS TO SCATTERED FOR THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIG HORNS.
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS COMING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS AND MID
LEVEL CAPPING WILL KEEP OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY...UNDERNEATH
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...THOUGH WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN A FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THERE IS NOT MUCH NEW TO SAY CONCERNING THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES
PREVAILS. HOWEVER...THAT RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST IN THE SHORT TERM...ALLOWING SOME WEAK RETURN OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE
MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY HIGH...BUT MAY PRODUCE SOME WETTING RAIN
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ABSAROKAS/BEARTOOTHS TO THE BIG
HORNS. THIS IS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST SO LITTLE IF ANY
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THIS PACKAGE. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS SOME OF THAT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN....MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PERSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY LOW 90S. ADDITIONALLY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD
BE HELD OFF TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN REDUCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TIGHTLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FIRST POTENTIAL FOR SPREADING INTO THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AT BEST. THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN SLIGHT FOR
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS STRONG RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE. DID PARE BACK THE EXTENT OF SLIGHT POPS FOR
SATURDAY...AS NOW APPEARS WILL BE LESSER POTENTIAL TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. EASTERN ZONES APPEAR TO STAY DRY THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITION AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE KLVM AND KSHR SITES. HOOLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/089 060/089 060/089 062/091 064/091 062/092
    0/B 00/B    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 089 054/089 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/089 055/088
    1/B 12/T    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 091 058/091 057/090 059/091 061/093 061/092 061/093
    0/U 00/B    01/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/089 060/089 061/089 064/093 064/093 064/092
    0/U 00/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 088 058/088 058/088 059/088 060/092 062/091 062/091
    0/U 00/B    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 083 054/085 054/085 056/085 059/089 059/088 059/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 089 056/086 053/086 055/086 057/089 057/087 057/088
    0/U 12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281508
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
908 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS EXTENDED THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT TODAY. AT 9 AM...WEAK ECHOES
EVIDENT ON TFX RADAR NEAR DLN/BTM/BZN. 12Z RAOBS SHOW PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES UPSTREAM AT BOISE AND SALT LAKE CITY...WITH
FAIRLY MOIST PROFILES ABOVE 600MB. ALL OF THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY...AND
HAVE RAISED POPS TO SCATTERED FOR THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIG HORNS.
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS COMING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS AND MID
LEVEL CAPPING WILL KEEP OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY...UNDERNEATH
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...THOUGH WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN A FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THERE IS NOT MUCH NEW TO SAY CONCERNING THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES
PREVAILS. HOWEVER...THAT RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST IN THE SHORT TERM...ALLOWING SOME WEAK RETURN OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE
MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY HIGH...BUT MAY PRODUCE SOME WETTING RAIN
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ABSAROKAS/BEARTOOTHS TO THE BIG
HORNS. THIS IS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST SO LITTLE IF ANY
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THIS PACKAGE. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS SOME OF THAT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN....MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PERSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY LOW 90S. ADDITIONALLY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD
BE HELD OFF TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN REDUCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TIGHTLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FIRST POTENTIAL FOR SPREADING INTO THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AT BEST. THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN SLIGHT FOR
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS STRONG RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE. DID PARE BACK THE EXTENT OF SLIGHT POPS FOR
SATURDAY...AS NOW APPEARS WILL BE LESSER POTENTIAL TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. EASTERN ZONES APPEAR TO STAY DRY THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITION AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE KLVM AND KSHR SITES. HOOLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/089 060/089 060/089 062/091 064/091 062/092
    0/B 00/B    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 089 054/089 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/089 055/088
    1/B 12/T    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 091 058/091 057/090 059/091 061/093 061/092 061/093
    0/U 00/B    01/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/089 060/089 061/089 064/093 064/093 064/092
    0/U 00/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 088 058/088 058/088 059/088 060/092 062/091 062/091
    0/U 00/B    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 083 054/085 054/085 056/085 059/089 059/088 059/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 089 056/086 053/086 055/086 057/089 057/087 057/088
    0/U 12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280903
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
303 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THERE IS NOT MUCH NEW TO SAY CONCERNING THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES
PREVAILS. HOWEVER...THAT RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST IN THE SHORT TERM...ALLOWING SOME WEAK RETURN OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE
MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY HIGH...BUT MAY PRODUCE SOME WETTING RAIN
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ABSAROKAS/BEARTOOTHS TO THE BIG
HORNS. THIS IS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST SO LITTLE IF ANY
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THIS PACKAGE. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS SOME OF THAT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN....MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PERSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY LOW 90S. ADDITIONALLY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD
BE HELD OFF TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN REDUCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TIGHTLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FIRST POTENTIAL FOR SPREADING INTO THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AT BEST. THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN SLIGHT FOR
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS STRONG RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE. DID PARE BACK THE EXTENT OF SLIGHT POPS FOR
SATURDAY...AS NOW APPEARS WILL BE LESSER POTENTIAL TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. EASTERN ZONES APPEAR TO STAY DRY THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT WILL SOME
CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ARE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE
BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...AND NEAR TAF SITES
OF KLVM AND KSHR. EXPECTED LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS IN AREA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/089 060/089 060/089 062/091 064/091 062/092
    0/B 00/B    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 089 054/089 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/089 055/088
    1/B 12/T    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 091 058/091 057/090 059/091 061/093 061/092 061/093
    0/U 00/B    01/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 088 060/089 060/089 061/089 064/093 064/093 064/092
    0/U 00/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 088 058/088 058/088 059/088 060/092 062/091 062/091
    0/U 00/B    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 083 054/085 054/085 056/085 059/089 059/088 059/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 089 056/086 053/086 055/086 057/089 057/087 057/088
    0/B 12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280221
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
821 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
AN EAST BREEZE. WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH SOME WITH SUNSET BUT
EXPECT A LIGHT EAST BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH TROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR THE THERMAL
AXIS AND BETTER MONSOONAL PUSH TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SURFACE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST TO START THE WEEK AS THE
GREAT BASIN SURFACE LOW TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES GIVEN THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO COMBAT
THE INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SLOWLY ALLOW FOR INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE THROUGH MID-WEEK. ALSO...MONSOON MOISTURE...WHICH
REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL START TO GET
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS ONLY
RESULTING IN SOME HIGH...THIN CLOUD COVER.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN A BIT
STRONGER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EFFECT IS THAT THIS WILL
LIMIT PROGRESS OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS SO THAT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE LOOKING LIKE ONLY HIGH ELEVATION
THUNDER AND FIRST CHANCE OF LOWER ELEVATION THUNDER IS FRIDAY AT
THE EARLIEST.

NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD AS
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. MODELS ARE PROJECTING A BIT OF
A PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY MID WEEK BUT
STILL SHOWING GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLUCUATING
ON HOW MUCH OF A WARM UP MAY BE GENERATED DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
BUT EVEN WARMEST SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY PUSHING THE LOWER 90S. ONLY
ADJUSTED A FEW POPS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS MON
AFTERNOON INCLUDING IN THE KLVM VICINITY. EXPECTED LOCALIZED
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS MON
AFTERNOON. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/090 061/088 060/087 060/091 062/091 064/091 062/092
    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 053/088 053/086 054/091 055/091 055/089 055/088
    01/B    11/B    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 055/091 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/093 061/092 061/093
    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 058/088 060/088 060/087 061/091 064/093 064/093 064/092
    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 056/087 058/087 058/086 059/090 060/092 062/091 062/091
    00/U    01/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 051/083 053/085 054/083 056/087 059/089 059/088 059/088
    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 052/089 055/086 054/084 055/088 057/089 057/087 057/088
    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280221
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
821 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
AN EAST BREEZE. WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH SOME WITH SUNSET BUT
EXPECT A LIGHT EAST BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH TROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR THE THERMAL
AXIS AND BETTER MONSOONAL PUSH TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SURFACE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST TO START THE WEEK AS THE
GREAT BASIN SURFACE LOW TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES GIVEN THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO COMBAT
THE INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SLOWLY ALLOW FOR INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE THROUGH MID-WEEK. ALSO...MONSOON MOISTURE...WHICH
REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL START TO GET
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS ONLY
RESULTING IN SOME HIGH...THIN CLOUD COVER.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN A BIT
STRONGER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EFFECT IS THAT THIS WILL
LIMIT PROGRESS OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS SO THAT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE LOOKING LIKE ONLY HIGH ELEVATION
THUNDER AND FIRST CHANCE OF LOWER ELEVATION THUNDER IS FRIDAY AT
THE EARLIEST.

NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD AS
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. MODELS ARE PROJECTING A BIT OF
A PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY MID WEEK BUT
STILL SHOWING GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLUCUATING
ON HOW MUCH OF A WARM UP MAY BE GENERATED DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
BUT EVEN WARMEST SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY PUSHING THE LOWER 90S. ONLY
ADJUSTED A FEW POPS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS MON
AFTERNOON INCLUDING IN THE KLVM VICINITY. EXPECTED LOCALIZED
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS MON
AFTERNOON. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/090 061/088 060/087 060/091 062/091 064/091 062/092
    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 053/088 053/086 054/091 055/091 055/089 055/088
    01/B    11/B    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 055/091 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/093 061/092 061/093
    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 058/088 060/088 060/087 061/091 064/093 064/093 064/092
    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 056/087 058/087 058/086 059/090 060/092 062/091 062/091
    00/U    01/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 051/083 053/085 054/083 056/087 059/089 059/088 059/088
    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 052/089 055/086 054/084 055/088 057/089 057/087 057/088
    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272020
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
220 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH TROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR THE THERMAL
AXIS AND BETTER MONSOONAL PUSH TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SURFACE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST TO START THE WEEK AS THE
GREAT BASIN SURFACE LOW TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES GIVEN THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO COMBAT
THE INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SLOWLY ALLOW FOR INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE THROUGH MID-WEEK. ALSO...MONSOON MOISTURE...WHICH
REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL START TO GET
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS ONLY
RESULTING IN SOME HIGH...THIN CLOUD COVER.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN A BIT
STRONGER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EFFECT IS THAT THIS WILL
LIMIT PROGRESS OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS SO THAT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE LOOKING LIKE ONLY HIGH ELEVATION
THUNDER AND FIRST CHANCE OF LOWER ELEVATION THUNDER IS FRIDAY AT
THE EARLIEST.

NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD AS
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. MODELS ARE PROJECTING A BIT OF
A PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY MID WEEK BUT
STILL SHOWING GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLUCUATING
ON HOW MUCH OF A WARM UP MAY BE GENERATED DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
BUT EVEN WARMEST SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY PUSHING THE LOWER 90S. ONLY
ADJUSTED A FEW POPS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/090 061/088 060/087 060/091 062/091 064/091 062/092
    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 053/088 053/086 054/091 055/091 055/089 055/088
    01/B    11/B    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 055/091 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/093 061/092 061/093
    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 058/088 060/088 060/087 061/091 064/093 064/093 064/092
    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 056/087 058/087 058/086 059/090 060/092 062/091 062/091
    00/U    01/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 051/083 053/085 054/083 056/087 059/089 059/088 059/088
    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 052/089 055/086 054/084 055/088 057/089 057/087 057/088
    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272020
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
220 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH TROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR THE THERMAL
AXIS AND BETTER MONSOONAL PUSH TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SURFACE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST TO START THE WEEK AS THE
GREAT BASIN SURFACE LOW TAKES HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES GIVEN THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO COMBAT
THE INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SLOWLY ALLOW FOR INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE THROUGH MID-WEEK. ALSO...MONSOON MOISTURE...WHICH
REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL START TO GET
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS ONLY
RESULTING IN SOME HIGH...THIN CLOUD COVER.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN A BIT
STRONGER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EFFECT IS THAT THIS WILL
LIMIT PROGRESS OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS SO THAT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE LOOKING LIKE ONLY HIGH ELEVATION
THUNDER AND FIRST CHANCE OF LOWER ELEVATION THUNDER IS FRIDAY AT
THE EARLIEST.

NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STILL LOOK GOOD AS
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL. MODELS ARE PROJECTING A BIT OF
A PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY MID WEEK BUT
STILL SHOWING GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN FLUCUATING
ON HOW MUCH OF A WARM UP MAY BE GENERATED DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
BUT EVEN WARMEST SOLUTIONS ARE ONLY PUSHING THE LOWER 90S. ONLY
ADJUSTED A FEW POPS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/090 061/088 060/087 060/091 062/091 064/091 062/092
    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 053/088 053/086 054/091 055/091 055/089 055/088
    01/B    11/B    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 055/091 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/093 061/092 061/093
    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 058/088 060/088 060/087 061/091 064/093 064/093 064/092
    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 056/087 058/087 058/086 059/090 060/092 062/091 062/091
    00/U    01/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 051/083 053/085 054/083 056/087 059/089 059/088 059/088
    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 052/089 055/086 054/084 055/088 057/089 057/087 057/088
    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271502
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
902 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN SOME
VERY MARGINAL TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START
OF THE WEEK.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RED FLAG CONCERNS HAVE
DIMINISHED FOR NOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH REALLY
LOW RH LEVELS HAS DECREASED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TURN
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND COUNTER SOME OF THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER US...SO TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OUR NORMALS.

THE ONE QUESTION WE HAVE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WHEN WILL
THE CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDER RETURN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AT THIS TIME...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS SOME MOMENTUM MAY FORCE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD
IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ANALYZING CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS THE
MOISTURE ROTATING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WILL BE QUITE
HIGH...AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOW POPS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AND DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES
TO FLOW INTO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE...WHICH SEEMS TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. EASTERLY SFC FLOW
ALSO APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

CONVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED OVERALL UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. A THERMAL TROF APPEARS TO BE MAKING
PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND BUT TIMING VARIES A BIT...WITH
ECMWF RUNNING A LITTLE FASTER. HAVE STARTED SPREADING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 90
DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK...IF CLOUD COVER IS
SUFFICIENT. THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD BE A BIT WARMER
DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF THERMAL BOUNDARY. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/090 061/088 060/087 060/091 062/091 064/091
    0/U 00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/089 053/088 053/086 054/091 055/091 055/089
    0/U 01/B    11/B    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 087 055/091 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/093 061/092
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 084 058/088 060/088 060/087 061/091 064/093 064/093
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 083 056/087 058/087 058/086 059/090 060/092 062/091
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 080 051/083 053/085 054/083 056/087 059/089 059/088
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 085 052/089 055/086 054/084 055/088 057/089 057/087
    0/U 01/B    12/T    22/T    11/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271502
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
902 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN SOME
VERY MARGINAL TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START
OF THE WEEK.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RED FLAG CONCERNS HAVE
DIMINISHED FOR NOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH REALLY
LOW RH LEVELS HAS DECREASED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TURN
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND COUNTER SOME OF THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER US...SO TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OUR NORMALS.

THE ONE QUESTION WE HAVE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WHEN WILL
THE CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDER RETURN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AT THIS TIME...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS SOME MOMENTUM MAY FORCE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD
IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ANALYZING CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS THE
MOISTURE ROTATING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WILL BE QUITE
HIGH...AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOW POPS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AND DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES
TO FLOW INTO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE...WHICH SEEMS TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. EASTERLY SFC FLOW
ALSO APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

CONVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED OVERALL UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. A THERMAL TROF APPEARS TO BE MAKING
PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND BUT TIMING VARIES A BIT...WITH
ECMWF RUNNING A LITTLE FASTER. HAVE STARTED SPREADING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 90
DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK...IF CLOUD COVER IS
SUFFICIENT. THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD BE A BIT WARMER
DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF THERMAL BOUNDARY. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/090 061/088 060/087 060/091 062/091 064/091
    0/U 00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/089 053/088 053/086 054/091 055/091 055/089
    0/U 01/B    11/B    21/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 087 055/091 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/093 061/092
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 084 058/088 060/088 060/087 061/091 064/093 064/093
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 083 056/087 058/087 058/086 059/090 060/092 062/091
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 080 051/083 053/085 054/083 056/087 059/089 059/088
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 085 052/089 055/086 054/084 055/088 057/089 057/087
    0/U 01/B    12/T    22/T    11/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270907
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
307 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RED FLAG CONCERNS HAVE
DIMINISHED FOR NOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH REALLY
LOW RH LEVELS HAS DECREASED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TURN
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND COUNTER SOME OF THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER US...SO TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OUR NORMALS.

THE ONE QUESTION WE HAVE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WHEN WILL
THE CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDER RETURN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AT THIS TIME...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS SOME MOMENTUM MAY FORCE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD
IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ANALYZING CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS THE
MOISTURE ROTATING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WILL BE QUITE
HIGH...AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOW POPS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AND DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES
TO FLOW INTO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE...WHICH SEEMS TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. EASTERLY SFC FLOW
ALSO APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

CONVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED OVERALL UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. A THERMAL TROF APPEARS TO BE MAKING
PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND BUT TIMING VARIES A BIT...WITH
ECMWF RUNNING A LITTLE FASTER. HAVE STARTED SPREADING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 90
DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK...IF CLOUD COVER IS
SUFFICIENT. THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD BE A BIT WARMER
DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF THERMAL BOUNDARY. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/089 060/088 059/087 060/091 062/091 064/091
    0/U 00/B    01/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/089 053/088 051/086 054/091 055/091 055/089
    0/U 01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 087 056/091 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/093 061/092
    0/U 00/U    01/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 084 058/087 059/088 059/087 061/091 064/093 064/093
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 083 056/087 058/087 057/086 059/090 060/092 062/091
    0/U 00/U    01/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 080 052/083 053/084 054/083 056/087 059/089 059/088
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 085 053/088 055/086 052/084 055/088 057/089 057/087
    0/U 01/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270907
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
307 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RED FLAG CONCERNS HAVE
DIMINISHED FOR NOW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH REALLY
LOW RH LEVELS HAS DECREASED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TURN
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND COUNTER SOME OF THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER US...SO TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OUR NORMALS.

THE ONE QUESTION WE HAVE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WHEN WILL
THE CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDER RETURN. MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AT THIS TIME...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS SOME MOMENTUM MAY FORCE SOME OF THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD
IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ANALYZING CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS THE
MOISTURE ROTATING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN BORDER WILL BE QUITE
HIGH...AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOW POPS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AND DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES
TO FLOW INTO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE...WHICH SEEMS TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. EASTERLY SFC FLOW
ALSO APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

CONVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED OVERALL UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. A THERMAL TROF APPEARS TO BE MAKING
PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND BUT TIMING VARIES A BIT...WITH
ECMWF RUNNING A LITTLE FASTER. HAVE STARTED SPREADING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 90
DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK...IF CLOUD COVER IS
SUFFICIENT. THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD BE A BIT WARMER
DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF THERMAL BOUNDARY. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/089 060/088 059/087 060/091 062/091 064/091
    0/U 00/B    01/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 051/089 053/088 051/086 054/091 055/091 055/089
    0/U 01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 087 056/091 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/093 061/092
    0/U 00/U    01/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 084 058/087 059/088 059/087 061/091 064/093 064/093
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 083 056/087 058/087 057/086 059/090 060/092 062/091
    0/U 00/U    01/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 080 052/083 053/084 054/083 056/087 059/089 059/088
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 085 053/088 055/086 052/084 055/088 057/089 057/087
    0/U 01/B    12/T    22/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270139
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
739 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES
AS WINDS ARE TRENDING DOWN AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ALREADY IN
THE 20S AND 30S. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. BY LATE EVENING WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER FOR A VERY
NICE DAY TO BE OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS BEHIND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
IS DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE IS HELPING TO MIX A
RESPECTABLE NORTHWEST WIND. KMLS AND KBHK CONTINUE TO GUST FROM 35
TO 45 MPH. RH VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS AT KJDN AND KMLS
STAYING AROUND 40F. DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS...THESE RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S ARE HELPING TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SLIGHTLY.

FOR SUNDAY...INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
DIMINISHES...AND THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS BUILDING IN WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...THUS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A ZERO POP FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS TO GET INTO THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THUS THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD DURING THE
PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER WESTERN MONTANA UNTIL THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LATER IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL
TROUGH MAY GET SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL MONTANA THOUGH GFS SEEMS A DAY
EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.

THROUGH TUESDAY IT LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN COULD SPILL INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THE POPS ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TIMING. AFTER THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS MIGRATION EASTWARD ITS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH MONSOONAL MOISTURE IT WILL BRING WITH IT...BUT
POPS STILL LOOK NO BETTER THAN ISOLATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 90 BUT COULD COOL A BIT MIDWEEK IF
CLOUD COVER IS PROMINENT ENOUGH. LATER IN THE WEEK COULD SEE A
WARMUP AS THE THERMAL TROUGH JUMPS THE DIVIDE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS AS THE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/087 059/088 060/088 059/087 060/091 062/090 064/090
    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 047/088 051/089 053/088 051/086 054/091 055/090 055/088
    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 054/087 056/090 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/092 061/091
    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 056/084 058/087 059/088 059/087 061/091 064/092 064/092
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T
4BQ 055/083 056/087 058/087 057/086 059/090 060/091 062/090
    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 051/080 053/084 053/084 054/083 056/087 059/088 059/087
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 050/085 053/087 054/086 052/084 055/088 057/088 057/086
    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270139
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
739 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES
AS WINDS ARE TRENDING DOWN AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ALREADY IN
THE 20S AND 30S. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. BY LATE EVENING WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER FOR A VERY
NICE DAY TO BE OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS BEHIND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
IS DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE IS HELPING TO MIX A
RESPECTABLE NORTHWEST WIND. KMLS AND KBHK CONTINUE TO GUST FROM 35
TO 45 MPH. RH VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS AT KJDN AND KMLS
STAYING AROUND 40F. DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS...THESE RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S ARE HELPING TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SLIGHTLY.

FOR SUNDAY...INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
DIMINISHES...AND THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS BUILDING IN WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...THUS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A ZERO POP FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS TO GET INTO THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THUS THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD DURING THE
PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER WESTERN MONTANA UNTIL THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LATER IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL
TROUGH MAY GET SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL MONTANA THOUGH GFS SEEMS A DAY
EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.

THROUGH TUESDAY IT LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN COULD SPILL INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THE POPS ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TIMING. AFTER THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS MIGRATION EASTWARD ITS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH MONSOONAL MOISTURE IT WILL BRING WITH IT...BUT
POPS STILL LOOK NO BETTER THAN ISOLATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 90 BUT COULD COOL A BIT MIDWEEK IF
CLOUD COVER IS PROMINENT ENOUGH. LATER IN THE WEEK COULD SEE A
WARMUP AS THE THERMAL TROUGH JUMPS THE DIVIDE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS AS THE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/087 059/088 060/088 059/087 060/091 062/090 064/090
    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 047/088 051/089 053/088 051/086 054/091 055/090 055/088
    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 054/087 056/090 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/092 061/091
    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 056/084 058/087 059/088 059/087 061/091 064/092 064/092
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T
4BQ 055/083 056/087 058/087 057/086 059/090 060/091 062/090
    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 051/080 053/084 053/084 054/083 056/087 059/088 059/087
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 050/085 053/087 054/086 052/084 055/088 057/088 057/086
    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262112
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS BEHIND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
IS DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE IS HELPING TO MIX A
RESPECTABLE NORTHWEST WIND. KMLS AND KBHK CONTINUE TO GUST FROM 35
TO 45 MPH. RH VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS AT KJDN AND KMLS
STAYING AROUND 40F. DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS...THESE RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S ARE HELPING TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SLIGHTLY.

FOR SUNDAY...INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
DIMINISHES...AND THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS BUILDING IN WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...THUS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A ZERO POP FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS TO GET INTO THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THUS THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD DURING THE
PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER WESTERN MONTANA UNTIL THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LATER IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL
TROUGH MAY GET SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL MONTANA THOUGH GFS SEEMS A DAY
EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.

THROUGH TUESDAY IT LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN COULD SPILL INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THE POPS ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TIMING. AFTER THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS MIGRATION EASTWARD ITS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH MONSOONAL MOISTURE IT WILL BRING WITH IT...BUT
POPS STILL LOOK NO BETTER THAN ISOLATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 90 BUT COULD COOL A BIT MIDWEEK IF
CLOUD COVER IS PROMINENT ENOUGH. LATER IN THE WEEK COULD SEE A
WARMUP AS THE THERMAL TROUGH JUMPS THE DIVIDE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS AS THE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/087 059/088 060/088 059/087 060/091 062/090 064/090
    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 047/088 051/089 053/088 051/086 054/091 055/090 055/088
    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 054/087 056/090 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/092 061/091
    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 056/084 058/087 059/088 059/087 061/091 064/092 064/092
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T
4BQ 055/083 056/087 058/087 057/086 059/090 060/091 062/090
    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 051/080 053/084 053/084 054/083 056/087 059/088 059/087
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 050/085 053/087 054/086 052/084 055/088 057/088 057/086
    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 30>32.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262112
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS BEHIND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
IS DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE IS HELPING TO MIX A
RESPECTABLE NORTHWEST WIND. KMLS AND KBHK CONTINUE TO GUST FROM 35
TO 45 MPH. RH VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS AT KJDN AND KMLS
STAYING AROUND 40F. DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS...THESE RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S ARE HELPING TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SLIGHTLY.

FOR SUNDAY...INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
DIMINISHES...AND THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS BUILDING IN WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...THUS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A ZERO POP FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS TO GET INTO THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THUS THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD DURING THE
PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER WESTERN MONTANA UNTIL THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LATER IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL
TROUGH MAY GET SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL MONTANA THOUGH GFS SEEMS A DAY
EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.

THROUGH TUESDAY IT LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN COULD SPILL INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THE POPS ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TIMING. AFTER THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS MIGRATION EASTWARD ITS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH MONSOONAL MOISTURE IT WILL BRING WITH IT...BUT
POPS STILL LOOK NO BETTER THAN ISOLATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 90 BUT COULD COOL A BIT MIDWEEK IF
CLOUD COVER IS PROMINENT ENOUGH. LATER IN THE WEEK COULD SEE A
WARMUP AS THE THERMAL TROUGH JUMPS THE DIVIDE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS AS THE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/087 059/088 060/088 059/087 060/091 062/090 064/090
    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 047/088 051/089 053/088 051/086 054/091 055/090 055/088
    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 054/087 056/090 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/092 061/091
    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 056/084 058/087 059/088 059/087 061/091 064/092 064/092
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T
4BQ 055/083 056/087 058/087 057/086 059/090 060/091 062/090
    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 051/080 053/084 053/084 054/083 056/087 059/088 059/087
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 050/085 053/087 054/086 052/084 055/088 057/088 057/086
    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 30>32.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




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