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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300321
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
921 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY HAS
MOVED THROUGH BURNS OREGON SO THAT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A 12-14Z
ARRIVAL IN BILLINGS. RAP MODEL PREVENTS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR INTO THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THESE DETAILS WELL. NO UPDATES.
BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. A FAIR EVENING AND NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...AND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
APPROACH LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 12Z AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONVECTIVE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NEAR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES...ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THERE...HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE
TIME OF THE WAVE. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR SEVERE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAVE PASSAGE AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THUS EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WONT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE WAVE.
THE GFS REMAINS THE DRY SOLUTION...WHILE THE EC REMAINS FAIRLY
WET. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR HOW IT WILL
IMPACT WEATHER ON LABOR DAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BUT HEIGHTS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE GFS WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE WARMER SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SHOWER AND ISOLD
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE WEST OF KBIL LATER TONIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH LOCAL MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/073 054/070 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    16/T    62/W    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 052/071 044/068 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    27/T    62/W    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 055/076 053/072 052/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    04/T    52/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 057/079 055/073 052/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    03/T    42/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 057/084 055/070 052/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    03/T    43/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 053/078 053/071 048/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    04/T    52/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 052/080 050/070 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    03/T    53/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300321
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
921 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY HAS
MOVED THROUGH BURNS OREGON SO THAT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A 12-14Z
ARRIVAL IN BILLINGS. RAP MODEL PREVENTS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR INTO THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THESE DETAILS WELL. NO UPDATES.
BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. A FAIR EVENING AND NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...AND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
APPROACH LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 12Z AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONVECTIVE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NEAR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES...ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THERE...HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE
TIME OF THE WAVE. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR SEVERE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAVE PASSAGE AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THUS EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WONT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE WAVE.
THE GFS REMAINS THE DRY SOLUTION...WHILE THE EC REMAINS FAIRLY
WET. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR HOW IT WILL
IMPACT WEATHER ON LABOR DAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BUT HEIGHTS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE GFS WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE WARMER SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SHOWER AND ISOLD
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE WEST OF KBIL LATER TONIGHT AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH LOCAL MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/073 054/070 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    16/T    62/W    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 052/071 044/068 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    27/T    62/W    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 055/076 053/072 052/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    04/T    52/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 057/079 055/073 052/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    03/T    42/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 057/084 055/070 052/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    03/T    43/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 053/078 053/071 048/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    04/T    52/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 052/080 050/070 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    03/T    53/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
327 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNINGS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. A FAIR EVENING AND NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH NEAR NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...AND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
APPROACH LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 12Z AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONVECTIVE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NEAR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES...ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THERE...HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE
TIME OF THE WAVE. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR SEVERE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAVE PASSAGE AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THUS EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WONT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE WAVE.
THE GFS REMAINS THE DRY SOLUTION...WHILE THE EC REMAINS FAIRLY
WET. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR HOW IT WILL
IMPACT WEATHER ON LABOR DAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BUT HEIGHTS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE GFS WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE WARMER SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT KLVM AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO KBIL AND KMLS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/073 054/070 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    16/T    62/W    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 052/071 044/068 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    27/T    62/W    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 055/076 053/072 052/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    04/T    52/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 057/079 055/073 052/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    03/T    42/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 057/084 055/070 052/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    03/T    43/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 053/078 053/071 048/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    04/T    52/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 052/080 050/070 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    03/T    53/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
327 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNINGS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. A FAIR EVENING AND NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...WITH NEAR NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...AND CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
APPROACH LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 12Z AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONVECTIVE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...NEAR
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES...ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THERE...HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS GIVEN THE
TIME OF THE WAVE. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER ELEMENTS...ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
OR SEVERE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAVE PASSAGE AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THUS EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT WONT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY...BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE WAVE.
THE GFS REMAINS THE DRY SOLUTION...WHILE THE EC REMAINS FAIRLY
WET. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR HOW IT WILL
IMPACT WEATHER ON LABOR DAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SPLITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BUT HEIGHTS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE GFS WAS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE WARMER SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT KLVM AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO KBIL AND KMLS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/073 054/070 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    16/T    62/W    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 052/071 044/068 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    27/T    62/W    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 055/076 053/072 052/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    04/T    52/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 057/079 055/073 052/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    03/T    42/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 057/084 055/070 052/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    03/T    43/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 053/078 053/071 048/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    04/T    52/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 052/080 050/070 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    03/T    53/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291554
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TWEAKED POPS DOWN SOME
ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT TO SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT RELATED TO A NICE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS OUR REGION APPEARS TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL ZONES. Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
EXITS THE STATE THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DUE TO INSTABILITY AS COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE REGION. WE MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...AND ARE REINFORCED BY SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
CARVING OUT A PATH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEL PROGGS POINT TO A RISK OVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AS WELL DUE TO SOME MODERATE SHEAR PROFILES
AND DECENT FORCING FROM UPPER JET DYNAMICS. BASED ON THE
CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC INFLUENCES AND POTENTIAL TAP OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE /SEE WATER VAPOR LOOPS OFF CALIFORNIA COAST/ I HAVE
RAISED POPS A LITTLE MORE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINIMAL CHANGES ONCE AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MODELS
REMAINING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINISH UP THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROF CROSSES THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS...AND SOME
DEGREE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SHORT DRY PERIOD...AND A BIT OF A
WARMUP. TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO ABOUT AVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER
PACIFIC TROF IS BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW APPEARS TO STAY INTACT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD...AS THE TROF DEEPENS. SPECIFICS WITH RELATION TO THIS
TROF IMPACTING THE REGION REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH REGARD TO
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE COAST OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING MONSOONAL FLOW INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND
KEPT TEMPS COOL TO END THE WORKWEEK. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM KMLS TO KSHR WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING VFR
FLYING WEATHER FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20KTS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND SPREAD EAST INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY SATURDAY. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 056/073 053/071 050/073 050/076 052/080 053/074
    1/B 15/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 081 051/070 044/068 043/071 044/076 045/079 046/075
    1/B 17/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 079 056/077 053/072 051/075 051/078 052/082 054/078
    1/B 04/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    23/T
MLS 077 058/079 055/073 052/075 053/078 054/082 055/077
    2/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 078 057/085 054/071 051/074 052/078 053/083 056/078
    2/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
BHK 076 055/080 054/071 048/073 049/076 051/080 053/076
    2/T 04/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
SHR 079 053/081 051/069 047/073 046/078 048/082 051/079
    2/T 03/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290921
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT RELATED TO A NICE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS OUR REGION APPEARS TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL ZONES. Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
EXITS THE STATE THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DUE TO INSTABILITY AS COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE REGION. WE MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...AND ARE REINFORCED BY SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
CARVING OUT A PATH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEL PROGGS POINT TO A RISK OVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AS WELL DUE TO SOME MODERATE SHEAR PROFILES
AND DECENT FORCING FROM UPPER JET DYNAMICS. BASED ON THE
CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC INFLUENCES AND TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE I
HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE MORE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
EVENING. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINIMAL CHANGES ONCE AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MODELS
REMAINING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINISH UP THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROF CROSSES THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS...AND SOME
DEGREE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SHORT DRY PERIOD...AND A BIT OF A
WARMUP. TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO ABOUT AVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER
PACIFIC TROF IS BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW APPEARS TO STAY INTACT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD...AS THE TROF DEEPENS. SPECIFICS WITH RELATION TO THIS
TROF IMPACTING THE REGION REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH REGARD TO
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE COAST OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING MONSOONAL FLOW INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND
KEPT TEMPS COOL TO END THE WORKWEEK. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO PRYOR. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN PRECIP. THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED IN AREA
MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOCAL
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 056/073 053/071 050/073 050/076 052/080 053/074
    1/B 15/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 080 051/070 044/068 043/071 044/076 045/079 046/075
    1/B 17/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 078 056/077 053/072 051/075 051/078 052/082 054/078
    1/B 04/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 077 058/079 055/073 052/075 053/078 054/082 055/077
    3/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 078 057/085 054/071 051/074 052/078 053/083 056/078
    2/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
BHK 075 055/080 054/071 048/073 049/076 051/080 053/076
    3/T 14/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
SHR 078 053/081 051/069 047/073 046/078 048/082 051/079
    2/W 03/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290921
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT RELATED TO A NICE SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS OUR REGION APPEARS TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL ZONES. Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
EXITS THE STATE THIS MORNING...BUT LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DUE TO INSTABILITY AS COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE REGION. WE MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...AND ARE REINFORCED BY SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
CARVING OUT A PATH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEL PROGGS POINT TO A RISK OVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AS WELL DUE TO SOME MODERATE SHEAR PROFILES
AND DECENT FORCING FROM UPPER JET DYNAMICS. BASED ON THE
CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC INFLUENCES AND TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE I
HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE MORE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
EVENING. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINIMAL CHANGES ONCE AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MODELS
REMAINING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINISH UP THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROF CROSSES THE REGION. ZONAL FLOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS...AND SOME
DEGREE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SHORT DRY PERIOD...AND A BIT OF A
WARMUP. TEMPS SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO ABOUT AVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER
PACIFIC TROF IS BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW APPEARS TO STAY INTACT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD...AS THE TROF DEEPENS. SPECIFICS WITH RELATION TO THIS
TROF IMPACTING THE REGION REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH REGARD TO
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE COAST OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING MONSOONAL FLOW INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND
KEPT TEMPS COOL TO END THE WORKWEEK. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP
TO BILLINGS TO PRYOR. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN PRECIP. THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED IN AREA
MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOCAL
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 056/073 053/071 050/073 050/076 052/080 053/074
    1/B 15/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 080 051/070 044/068 043/071 044/076 045/079 046/075
    1/B 17/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 078 056/077 053/072 051/075 051/078 052/082 054/078
    1/B 04/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 077 058/079 055/073 052/075 053/078 054/082 055/077
    3/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 078 057/085 054/071 051/074 052/078 053/083 056/078
    2/T 03/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
BHK 075 055/080 054/071 048/073 049/076 051/080 053/076
    3/T 14/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    23/T
SHR 078 053/081 051/069 047/073 046/078 048/082 051/079
    2/W 03/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290308
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
908 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON TRACK THOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
FAVOR OUTFLOW WINDS RATHER THAN RAIN HITTING THROUGH GROUND AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED FORECAST TO INDICATE MORE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF I94 FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WAS HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS CHANGE WILL BE COURTESY OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND TURN THE WEATHER PATTERN COOLER AND UNSETTLED. AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOOT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THIS
EVENING AND GENERATE LIFT TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING
THE NSSL WRF...WERE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEST BY MID EVENING AND SPREADING IT INTO BILLINGS BY LATE
EVENING. HAVE RAISED POPS TONIGHT FOR THIS. NOT MUCH GOING ON AT
THE MOMENT...JUST A FEW CU TO THE WEST...BUT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN PLACE AND STICK WITH A LATER DEVELOPMENT IDEA.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. DID
LINGER LOW POPS IN THE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DRYING TREND
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 70S FRIDAY...ALONG WITH PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS A SMALL
SCALE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH.

THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE IN SATURDAY WITH A COUPLED JET
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THIS PROVIDES
STRONG FORCING WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE RAISED POPS AS
QPF HAS COME IN QUIET WET FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH
UP A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST
ZONES EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR STRONG CAPE OVER FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES BUT
MODELS PROGG CAPES REACHING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH INCREASING
SHEAR. SPC HAS FALLON COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK. COULD BE A BRIEF
STRONG STORM OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
FRONT SWEEPS THE HIGHEST CAPES EAST. REINFORCING ENERGY MOVES IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THUS EXTENDED SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE GFS MODEL WAS WET FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND ALONG
WITH BEING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL ROUND OUT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES SUN INTO MON AS
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL OFFER THE SLIGHTLY GREATER
/ALBEIT STILL RELATIVELY LOW/ CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN
THOSE TWO DAYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW INDUCED BY THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY ZONAL LOOK NEXT
WEEK THOUGH AND A WARMING TREND WILL THUS FOLLOW AS THERMAL FIELDS
RECOVER UNDER RISING HEIGHTS TUE AND WED. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER OFF
SUN VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S BACK TO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY SPOTS BY
BY WED.

BY NEXT THU...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES AS THE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN OFFERING SOME MIXED SIGNALS ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING THAT
500-MB HEIGHTS MAY TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...WHICH COULD CAUSE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE
REGION AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK. IN RESPECT TO THAT POTENTIAL WHILE
ACKNOWLEDGING OUR MODEST CONFIDENCE IN ITS DETAILS...WE ONCE AGAIN
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A BIT COOLER HIGHS
/WHICH WERE DRIVEN BY THE MEAN OF WIDE-RANGING GUIDANCE VALUES/ IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT THU. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY E OF KBIL AFTER 12Z FRI. EXPECT AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZYS...BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING OBSCURATION OVER THE NE BIG
HORNS. LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA ON FRI. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/078 057/075 052/071 050/073 050/076 052/080 053/074
    42/W    05/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 051/079 052/072 045/068 043/071 044/076 045/079 046/075
    42/W    16/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 058/080 057/078 053/072 051/075 051/078 052/082 054/078
    32/W    05/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 060/078 059/079 055/073 052/075 053/078 054/082 055/077
    34/W    03/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 059/080 058/085 053/071 051/074 052/078 053/083 056/078
    13/T    04/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    22/T
BHK 057/076 056/079 054/071 048/073 049/076 051/080 053/076
    25/T    14/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    22/T
SHR 055/079 054/080 052/069 047/073 046/078 048/082 051/079
    22/W    04/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282128
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
328 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WAS HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS CHANGE WILL BE COURTESY OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND TURN THE WEATHER PATTERN COOLER AND UNSETTLED. AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOOT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THIS
EVENING AND GENERATE LIFT TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING
THE NSSL WRF...WERE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEST BY MID EVENING AND SPREADING IT INTO BILLINGS BY LATE
EVENING. HAVE RAISED POPS TONIGHT FOR THIS. NOT MUCH GOING ON AT
THE MOMENT...JUST A FEW CU TO THE WEST...BUT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN PLACE AND STICK WITH A LATER DEVELOPMENT IDEA.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. DID
LINGER LOW POPS IN THE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DRYING TREND
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 70S FRIDAY...ALONG WITH PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS A SMALL
SCALE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH.

THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE IN SATURDAY WITH A COUPLED JET
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THIS PROVIDES
STRONG FORCING WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE RAISED POPS AS
QPF HAS COME IN QUIET WET FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH
UP A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST
ZONES EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR STRONG CAPE OVER FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES BUT
MODELS PROGG CAPES REACHING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH INCREASING
SHEAR. SPC HAS FALLON COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK. COULD BE A BRIEF
STRONG STORM OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
FRONT SWEEPS THE HIGHEST CAPES EAST. REINFORCING ENERGY MOVES IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THUS EXTENDED SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE GFS MODEL WAS WET FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND ALONG
WITH BEING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL ROUND OUT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES SUN INTO MON AS
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL OFFER THE SLIGHTLY GREATER
/ALBEIT STILL RELATIVELY LOW/ CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN
THOSE TWO DAYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW INDUCED BY THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY ZONAL LOOK NEXT
WEEK THOUGH AND A WARMING TREND WILL THUS FOLLOW AS THERMAL FIELDS
RECOVER UNDER RISING HEIGHTS TUE AND WED. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER OFF
SUN VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S BACK TO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY SPOTS BY
BY WED.

BY NEXT THU...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES AS THE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN OFFERING SOME MIXED SIGNALS ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING THAT
500-MB HEIGHTS MAY TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...WHICH COULD CAUSE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE
REGION AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK. IN RESPECT TO THAT POTENTIAL WHILE
ACKNOWLEDGING OUR MODEST CONFIDENCE IN ITS DETAILS...WE ONCE AGAIN
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A BIT COOLER HIGHS
/WHICH WERE DRIVEN BY THE MEAN OF WIDE-RANGING GUIDANCE VALUES/ IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT THU. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING...TOWARD KBIL BEGINNING BY AROUND
04 UTC AND TO KMLS BY ABOUT 09 UTC. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO FRI MORNING IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN
MT AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/078 057/075 052/071 050/073 050/076 052/080 053/074
    32/W    05/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 051/079 052/072 045/068 043/071 044/076 045/079 046/075
    42/W    16/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 058/080 057/078 053/072 051/075 051/078 052/082 054/078
    32/W    05/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 060/078 059/079 055/073 052/075 053/078 054/082 055/077
    34/W    03/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 059/080 058/085 053/071 051/074 052/078 053/083 056/078
    13/T    04/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    22/T
BHK 057/076 056/079 054/071 048/073 049/076 051/080 053/076
    25/T    14/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    22/T
SHR 055/079 054/080 052/069 047/073 046/078 048/082 051/079
    22/W    04/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282128
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
328 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WAS HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS CHANGE WILL BE COURTESY OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND TURN THE WEATHER PATTERN COOLER AND UNSETTLED. AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL SHOOT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THIS
EVENING AND GENERATE LIFT TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING
THE NSSL WRF...WERE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER THE
WEST BY MID EVENING AND SPREADING IT INTO BILLINGS BY LATE
EVENING. HAVE RAISED POPS TONIGHT FOR THIS. NOT MUCH GOING ON AT
THE MOMENT...JUST A FEW CU TO THE WEST...BUT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN PLACE AND STICK WITH A LATER DEVELOPMENT IDEA.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. DID
LINGER LOW POPS IN THE MORNING MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DRYING TREND
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 70S FRIDAY...ALONG WITH PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET AS A SMALL
SCALE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH.

THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE IN SATURDAY WITH A COUPLED JET
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THIS PROVIDES
STRONG FORCING WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE RAISED POPS AS
QPF HAS COME IN QUIET WET FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH
UP A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST
ZONES EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR STRONG CAPE OVER FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES BUT
MODELS PROGG CAPES REACHING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH INCREASING
SHEAR. SPC HAS FALLON COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK. COULD BE A BRIEF
STRONG STORM OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
FRONT SWEEPS THE HIGHEST CAPES EAST. REINFORCING ENERGY MOVES IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THUS EXTENDED SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE GFS MODEL WAS WET FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND ALONG
WITH BEING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL ROUND OUT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES SUN INTO MON AS
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL OFFER THE SLIGHTLY GREATER
/ALBEIT STILL RELATIVELY LOW/ CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN
THOSE TWO DAYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW INDUCED BY THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY ZONAL LOOK NEXT
WEEK THOUGH AND A WARMING TREND WILL THUS FOLLOW AS THERMAL FIELDS
RECOVER UNDER RISING HEIGHTS TUE AND WED. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER OFF
SUN VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S BACK TO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY SPOTS BY
BY WED.

BY NEXT THU...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES AS THE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN OFFERING SOME MIXED SIGNALS ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING THAT
500-MB HEIGHTS MAY TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...WHICH COULD CAUSE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE
REGION AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK. IN RESPECT TO THAT POTENTIAL WHILE
ACKNOWLEDGING OUR MODEST CONFIDENCE IN ITS DETAILS...WE ONCE AGAIN
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A BIT COOLER HIGHS
/WHICH WERE DRIVEN BY THE MEAN OF WIDE-RANGING GUIDANCE VALUES/ IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT THU. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING...TOWARD KBIL BEGINNING BY AROUND
04 UTC AND TO KMLS BY ABOUT 09 UTC. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO FRI MORNING IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN
MT AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/078 057/075 052/071 050/073 050/076 052/080 053/074
    32/W    05/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
LVM 051/079 052/072 045/068 043/071 044/076 045/079 046/075
    42/W    16/T    62/T    22/T    21/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 058/080 057/078 053/072 051/075 051/078 052/082 054/078
    32/W    05/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
MLS 060/078 059/079 055/073 052/075 053/078 054/082 055/077
    34/W    03/T    52/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 059/080 058/085 053/071 051/074 052/078 053/083 056/078
    13/T    04/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    22/T
BHK 057/076 056/079 054/071 048/073 049/076 051/080 053/076
    25/T    14/T    52/T    22/T    21/B    11/U    22/T
SHR 055/079 054/080 052/069 047/073 046/078 048/082 051/079
    22/W    04/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281535
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
935 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ZONAL FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH DAY. THIS WILL DELIVER A DRY AND
WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WAS SPREADING SOME CLOUDS TOWARD THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA...BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL SHUNT THESE EAST
OF THE AREA AND KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY SUNNY. GOING FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.

WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. MAY
HAVE TO BUMP POPS UP TONIGHT AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL TACKLE THAT ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

A DRY ZONAL FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND WILL DRAG A WEAK COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM COLUMBUS WESTWARD. A DEEPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
FORCING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE WITH AN INCREASE IN Q VECTOR
FORCING AND JET DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SETS UP
AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS AND LOW
LEVELS BEING CAPPED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL
BRING LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. RICHMOND


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME TWO UPPER LEVEL TROFS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE WILL MOVE IN TO START THE
PERIOD...AND THE NEXT WIL MOVE IN TO END THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST TROF BRINGS UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION
CLOSE TO PEAK HEATING SATURDAY. IF THIS CONTINUES TO HOLD
TRUE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NUMBERS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX...WITH BEST POTENTIAL IN THE
EAST. FRONT TIMING IS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE...SO WILL
BARE WATCHING IN LATER SHIFTS...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
OF STRONG OR SEVERE IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE TROF MAKES THE
TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...AS
SHOULD BRING CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IN CYCLONIC
FLOW. THE PATTERN DRIES OUT BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
TROF BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AND
MODEL TIMING IS A LITTLE OFF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE CURRENT TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WEST AND SEASONAL TEMPS EAST OR
HIGHER. BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO TREND UPWARDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND
SEASONAL NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN WITH
THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE AREA-WIDE TODAY. A DISTURBANCE THEN LOOKS
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MT...FORMING NEAR KLVM THIS EVENING AND SPREADING EASTWARD
TO KBIL BY AROUND 06 UTC AND KMLS BY LATE NIGHT. OUR CONFIDENCE IN
THAT SCENARIO IS INCREASING GIVEN TRENDS IN RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL SIMULATIONS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/080 057/075 054/071 048/073 050/079 051/084
    0/U 32/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
LVM 085 051/081 052/073 046/068 043/071 044/079 045/083
    0/U 32/T    23/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
HDN 088 058/083 057/079 054/073 050/075 051/081 052/086
    0/U 22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 088 060/080 059/080 056/073 051/075 052/080 054/084
    0/U 23/T    14/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
4BQ 087 059/083 058/084 055/072 050/074 051/081 053/087
    0/U 13/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 085 057/078 056/080 054/071 048/072 050/078 050/084
    0/U 14/T    14/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    12/T
SHR 084 055/080 054/081 051/070 046/072 047/080 048/087
    0/U 13/T    14/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281535
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
935 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ZONAL FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH DAY. THIS WILL DELIVER A DRY AND
WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING WAS SPREADING SOME CLOUDS TOWARD THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA...BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL SHUNT THESE EAST
OF THE AREA AND KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY SUNNY. GOING FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.

WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. MAY
HAVE TO BUMP POPS UP TONIGHT AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL TACKLE THAT ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

A DRY ZONAL FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND WILL DRAG A WEAK COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM COLUMBUS WESTWARD. A DEEPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
FORCING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE WITH AN INCREASE IN Q VECTOR
FORCING AND JET DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SETS UP
AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS AND LOW
LEVELS BEING CAPPED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL
BRING LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. RICHMOND


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME TWO UPPER LEVEL TROFS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE WILL MOVE IN TO START THE
PERIOD...AND THE NEXT WIL MOVE IN TO END THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST TROF BRINGS UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION
CLOSE TO PEAK HEATING SATURDAY. IF THIS CONTINUES TO HOLD
TRUE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NUMBERS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX...WITH BEST POTENTIAL IN THE
EAST. FRONT TIMING IS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE...SO WILL
BARE WATCHING IN LATER SHIFTS...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
OF STRONG OR SEVERE IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE TROF MAKES THE
TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...AS
SHOULD BRING CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IN CYCLONIC
FLOW. THE PATTERN DRIES OUT BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
TROF BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AND
MODEL TIMING IS A LITTLE OFF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE CURRENT TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WEST AND SEASONAL TEMPS EAST OR
HIGHER. BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO TREND UPWARDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND
SEASONAL NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN WITH
THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE AREA-WIDE TODAY. A DISTURBANCE THEN LOOKS
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MT...FORMING NEAR KLVM THIS EVENING AND SPREADING EASTWARD
TO KBIL BY AROUND 06 UTC AND KMLS BY LATE NIGHT. OUR CONFIDENCE IN
THAT SCENARIO IS INCREASING GIVEN TRENDS IN RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL SIMULATIONS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/080 057/075 054/071 048/073 050/079 051/084
    0/U 32/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
LVM 085 051/081 052/073 046/068 043/071 044/079 045/083
    0/U 32/T    23/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
HDN 088 058/083 057/079 054/073 050/075 051/081 052/086
    0/U 22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 088 060/080 059/080 056/073 051/075 052/080 054/084
    0/U 23/T    14/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
4BQ 087 059/083 058/084 055/072 050/074 051/081 053/087
    0/U 13/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 085 057/078 056/080 054/071 048/072 050/078 050/084
    0/U 14/T    14/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    12/T
SHR 084 055/080 054/081 051/070 046/072 047/080 048/087
    0/U 13/T    14/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

A DRY ZONAL FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND WILL DRAG A WEAK COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM COLUMBUS WESTWARD. A DEEPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
FORCING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE WITH AN INCREASE IN Q VECTOR
FORCING AND JET DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SETS UP
AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS AND LOW
LEVELS BEING CAPPED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL
BRING LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME TWO UPPER LEVEL TROFS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE WILL MOVE IN TO START THE
PERIOD...AND THE NEXT WIL MOVE IN TO END THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST TROF BRINGS UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION
CLOSE TO PEAK HEATING SATURDAY. IF THIS CONTINUES TO HOLD
TRUE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NUMBERS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX...WITH BEST POTENTIAL IN THE
EAST. FRONT TIMING IS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE...SO WILL
BARE WATCHING IN LATER SHIFTS...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
OF STRONG OR SEVERE IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE TROF MAKES THE
TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...AS
SHOULD BRING CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IN CYCLONIC
FLOW. THE PATTERN DRIES OUT BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
TROF BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AND
MODEL TIMING IS A LITTLE OFF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE CURRENT TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WEST AND SEASONAL TEMPS EAST OR
HIGHER. BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO TREND UPWARDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND
SEASONAL NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN WITH
THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL ROUTES THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN AREA
MOUNTAINS...NEARBY FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KBIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS EVENING...BUT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PRECIP. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/080 057/075 054/071 048/073 050/079 051/084
    0/U 32/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
LVM 085 051/081 052/073 046/068 043/071 044/079 045/083
    0/U 32/T    23/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
HDN 088 058/083 057/079 054/073 050/075 051/081 052/086
    0/U 22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 088 060/080 059/080 056/073 051/075 052/080 054/084
    0/U 23/T    14/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
4BQ 087 059/083 058/084 055/072 050/074 051/081 053/087
    0/U 13/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 085 057/078 056/080 054/071 048/072 050/078 050/084
    0/U 14/T    14/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    12/T
SHR 084 055/080 054/081 051/070 046/072 047/080 048/087
    0/U 13/T    14/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

A DRY ZONAL FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND WILL DRAG A WEAK COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM COLUMBUS WESTWARD. A DEEPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
FORCING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE WITH AN INCREASE IN Q VECTOR
FORCING AND JET DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SETS UP
AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS AND LOW
LEVELS BEING CAPPED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL
BRING LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME TWO UPPER LEVEL TROFS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE WILL MOVE IN TO START THE
PERIOD...AND THE NEXT WIL MOVE IN TO END THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST TROF BRINGS UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION
CLOSE TO PEAK HEATING SATURDAY. IF THIS CONTINUES TO HOLD
TRUE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NUMBERS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX...WITH BEST POTENTIAL IN THE
EAST. FRONT TIMING IS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE...SO WILL
BARE WATCHING IN LATER SHIFTS...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
OF STRONG OR SEVERE IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE TROF MAKES THE
TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...AS
SHOULD BRING CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IN CYCLONIC
FLOW. THE PATTERN DRIES OUT BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
TROF BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AND
MODEL TIMING IS A LITTLE OFF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE CURRENT TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WEST AND SEASONAL TEMPS EAST OR
HIGHER. BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO TREND UPWARDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND
SEASONAL NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN WITH
THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL ROUTES THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN AREA
MOUNTAINS...NEARBY FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KBIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS EVENING...BUT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PRECIP. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/080 057/075 054/071 048/073 050/079 051/084
    0/U 32/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
LVM 085 051/081 052/073 046/068 043/071 044/079 045/083
    0/U 32/T    23/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
HDN 088 058/083 057/079 054/073 050/075 051/081 052/086
    0/U 22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 088 060/080 059/080 056/073 051/075 052/080 054/084
    0/U 23/T    14/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
4BQ 087 059/083 058/084 055/072 050/074 051/081 053/087
    0/U 13/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 085 057/078 056/080 054/071 048/072 050/078 050/084
    0/U 14/T    14/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    12/T
SHR 084 055/080 054/081 051/070 046/072 047/080 048/087
    0/U 13/T    14/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280306
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
906 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AIRMASS STABILIZING WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING HAS STOPPED MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. UPDATED
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING POPS. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WAS SPREADING CLOUDS NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE CU DEVELOPMENT WORKING NORTHWARD. JET
FORCING SLIDES EAST PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SO WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE FORCING TO DO THE SAME. WILL LINGER LOW POPS OVER
THE BIG HORNS AND THAT SHOULD BE IT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING...AS IT HAS BEEN CREEPING NORTHWARD TOWARD
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL KEEP THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW AND RELY ON
JET ENERGY KEEPING IT SOUTH AND EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND LITTLE WARMER AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. WOULD EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS
SWING A SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS INCREASE
TO AROUND .75 INCHES. INTRODUCED POPS FOR THE WEST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THIS AND SPREAD THEM INTO CENTRAL ZONES AND PART OF
THE SOUTHEAST MONTANA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS.

WILL LINGER LOW POPS THROUGH DAY FRIDAY AND HIT THE EAST HARDER
AS THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT CLEAR THE STATE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AT 850MB...WILL CAUSE A COOLER DAY FOR FRIDAY. SMALL SCALE RIDGE
WILL SLIDE IN BEHIND THE WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CLEAR
THINGS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A 500-MB
TROUGH PASSAGE SAT AND SUN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT TROUGH IS SLATED FOR SAT...AND THE 12 UTC RUNS
OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ALL SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT DURING THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING. IF THAT IS
THE CASE...THEN MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 35 KT WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT FOR A TIME SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WE ARE
NOT CONFIDENT IN THE FRONTAL TIMING THOUGH /IF IT IS FASTER...THEN
THE STORM RISK WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE DAKOTAS/. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO EXIST IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME SAT THROUGH MON
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...BUT THEY WILL BE DROPPING WITH TIME. WE
EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...BEGINNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MT ON SAT AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SUN AND MON. THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN BY TUE AND WED...ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND AGAIN IN THAT TIME FRAME. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/087 059/080 056/075 054/071 048/073 050/076 051/080
    00/U    22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
LVM 050/086 051/080 050/073 046/068 043/071 044/076 045/079
    00/U    22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
HDN 056/088 057/082 056/079 054/073 050/075 051/078 052/082
    00/U    22/T    12/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 059/087 059/080 058/080 056/073 051/075 052/077 054/080
    00/U    23/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
4BQ 058/087 058/081 057/084 055/072 050/074 051/078 053/083
    10/U    03/T    12/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 055/083 055/078 055/080 054/071 048/072 050/075 050/080
    00/U    04/T    24/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    12/T
SHR 053/087 053/081 053/081 051/070 046/072 047/077 048/083
    00/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280306
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
906 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AIRMASS STABILIZING WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING HAS STOPPED MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. UPDATED
FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING POPS. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WAS SPREADING CLOUDS NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE CU DEVELOPMENT WORKING NORTHWARD. JET
FORCING SLIDES EAST PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SO WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE FORCING TO DO THE SAME. WILL LINGER LOW POPS OVER
THE BIG HORNS AND THAT SHOULD BE IT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING...AS IT HAS BEEN CREEPING NORTHWARD TOWARD
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL KEEP THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW AND RELY ON
JET ENERGY KEEPING IT SOUTH AND EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND LITTLE WARMER AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. WOULD EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS
SWING A SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS INCREASE
TO AROUND .75 INCHES. INTRODUCED POPS FOR THE WEST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THIS AND SPREAD THEM INTO CENTRAL ZONES AND PART OF
THE SOUTHEAST MONTANA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS.

WILL LINGER LOW POPS THROUGH DAY FRIDAY AND HIT THE EAST HARDER
AS THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT CLEAR THE STATE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AT 850MB...WILL CAUSE A COOLER DAY FOR FRIDAY. SMALL SCALE RIDGE
WILL SLIDE IN BEHIND THE WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CLEAR
THINGS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A 500-MB
TROUGH PASSAGE SAT AND SUN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT TROUGH IS SLATED FOR SAT...AND THE 12 UTC RUNS
OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ALL SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT DURING THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING. IF THAT IS
THE CASE...THEN MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 35 KT WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT FOR A TIME SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WE ARE
NOT CONFIDENT IN THE FRONTAL TIMING THOUGH /IF IT IS FASTER...THEN
THE STORM RISK WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE DAKOTAS/. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO EXIST IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME SAT THROUGH MON
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...BUT THEY WILL BE DROPPING WITH TIME. WE
EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...BEGINNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MT ON SAT AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SUN AND MON. THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN BY TUE AND WED...ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND AGAIN IN THAT TIME FRAME. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/087 059/080 056/075 054/071 048/073 050/076 051/080
    00/U    22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
LVM 050/086 051/080 050/073 046/068 043/071 044/076 045/079
    00/U    22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
HDN 056/088 057/082 056/079 054/073 050/075 051/078 052/082
    00/U    22/T    12/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 059/087 059/080 058/080 056/073 051/075 052/077 054/080
    00/U    23/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
4BQ 058/087 058/081 057/084 055/072 050/074 051/078 053/083
    10/U    03/T    12/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 055/083 055/078 055/080 054/071 048/072 050/075 050/080
    00/U    04/T    24/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    12/T
SHR 053/087 053/081 053/081 051/070 046/072 047/077 048/083
    00/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272118
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
318 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WAS SPREADING CLOUDS NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE CU DEVELOPMENT WORKING NORTHWARD. JET
FORCING SLIDES EAST PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SO WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE FORCING TO DO THE SAME. WILL LINGER LOW POPS OVER
THE BIG HORNS AND THAT SHOULD BE IT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING...AS IT HAS BEEN CREEPING NORTHWARD TOWARD
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL KEEP THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW AND RELY ON
JET ENERGY KEEPING IT SOUTH AND EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND LITTLE WARMER AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. WOULD EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS
SWING A SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS INCREASE
TO AROUND .75 INCHES. INTRODUCED POPS FOR THE WEST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THIS AND SPREAD THEM INTO CENTRAL ZONES AND PART OF
THE SOUTHEAST MONTANA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS.

WILL LINGER LOW POPS THROUGH DAY FRIDAY AND HIT THE EAST HARDER
AS THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT CLEAR THE STATE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AT 850MB...WILL CAUSE A COOLER DAY FOR FRIDAY. SMALL SCALE RIDGE
WILL SLIDE IN BEHIND THE WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CLEAR
THINGS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A 500-MB
TROUGH PASSAGE SAT AND SUN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT TROUGH IS SLATED FOR SAT...AND THE 12 UTC RUNS
OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ALL SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT DURING THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING. IF THAT IS
THE CASE...THEN MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 35 KT WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT FOR A TIME SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WE ARE
NOT CONFIDENT IN THE FRONTAL TIMING THOUGH /IF IT IS FASTER...THEN
THE STORM RISK WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE DAKOTAS/. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO EXIST IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME SAT THROUGH MON
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...BUT THEY WILL BE DROPPING WITH TIME. WE
EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...BEGINNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MT ON SAT AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SUN AND MON. THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN BY TUE AND WED...ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND AGAIN IN THAT TIME FRAME. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS INTO THE EVENING WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS. WE
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/087 059/080 056/075 054/071 048/073 050/076 051/080
    00/U    22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
LVM 050/086 051/080 050/073 046/068 043/071 044/076 045/079
    00/U    22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
HDN 056/088 057/082 056/079 054/073 050/075 051/078 052/082
    00/U    22/T    12/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 059/087 059/080 058/080 056/073 051/075 052/077 054/080
    00/U    23/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
4BQ 058/087 058/081 057/084 055/072 050/074 051/078 053/083
    10/U    03/T    12/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 055/083 055/078 055/080 054/071 048/072 050/075 050/080
    00/U    04/T    24/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    12/T
SHR 053/087 053/081 053/081 051/070 046/072 047/077 048/083
    10/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272118
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
318 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WAS SPREADING CLOUDS NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE CU DEVELOPMENT WORKING NORTHWARD. JET
FORCING SLIDES EAST PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...SO WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE FORCING TO DO THE SAME. WILL LINGER LOW POPS OVER
THE BIG HORNS AND THAT SHOULD BE IT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING...AS IT HAS BEEN CREEPING NORTHWARD TOWARD
FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL KEEP THAT AREA DRY FOR NOW AND RELY ON
JET ENERGY KEEPING IT SOUTH AND EAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND LITTLE WARMER AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. WOULD EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS
SWING A SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS INCREASE
TO AROUND .75 INCHES. INTRODUCED POPS FOR THE WEST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THIS AND SPREAD THEM INTO CENTRAL ZONES AND PART OF
THE SOUTHEAST MONTANA OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS.

WILL LINGER LOW POPS THROUGH DAY FRIDAY AND HIT THE EAST HARDER
AS THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT CLEAR THE STATE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AT 850MB...WILL CAUSE A COOLER DAY FOR FRIDAY. SMALL SCALE RIDGE
WILL SLIDE IN BEHIND THE WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CLEAR
THINGS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE A 500-MB
TROUGH PASSAGE SAT AND SUN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH
WILL ACCOMPANY THAT TROUGH IS SLATED FOR SAT...AND THE 12 UTC RUNS
OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ALL SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT DURING THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING. IF THAT IS
THE CASE...THEN MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 35 KT WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT FOR A TIME SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WE ARE
NOT CONFIDENT IN THE FRONTAL TIMING THOUGH /IF IT IS FASTER...THEN
THE STORM RISK WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE DAKOTAS/. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO EXIST IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME SAT THROUGH MON
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...BUT THEY WILL BE DROPPING WITH TIME. WE
EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...BEGINNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MT ON SAT AND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA SUN AND MON. THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN BY TUE AND WED...ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND AGAIN IN THAT TIME FRAME. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS INTO THE EVENING WITH LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS. WE
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/087 059/080 056/075 054/071 048/073 050/076 051/080
    00/U    22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
LVM 050/086 051/080 050/073 046/068 043/071 044/076 045/079
    00/U    22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
HDN 056/088 057/082 056/079 054/073 050/075 051/078 052/082
    00/U    22/T    12/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 059/087 059/080 058/080 056/073 051/075 052/077 054/080
    00/U    23/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
4BQ 058/087 058/081 057/084 055/072 050/074 051/078 053/083
    10/U    03/T    12/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 055/083 055/078 055/080 054/071 048/072 050/075 050/080
    00/U    04/T    24/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    12/T
SHR 053/087 053/081 053/081 051/070 046/072 047/077 048/083
    10/U    02/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271510
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
910 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND. NO CHANGES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

DRY ZONAL FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER MONTANA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING TODAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. DID MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT DID REMOVE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SC/SE MT.
ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN TODAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY THE LATTER PORTIONS.
A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND THIS MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A
STRONG TROUGH AND UPPER LOW MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE TIME PERIODS. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT
THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE BIGHORNS
WITH AN ATTENDANT POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 057/087 059/080 057/084 057/072 051/070 050/074
    0/U 00/U    02/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 083 050/086 051/081 050/082 051/070 045/068 044/074
    0/U 10/U    12/T    13/T    33/T    23/T    31/U
HDN 084 056/088 057/082 056/086 057/074 052/073 050/077
    0/U 10/U    02/T    12/T    33/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 085 059/087 059/082 058/087 058/076 054/073 053/075
    0/U 10/U    02/T    13/T    33/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 084 058/087 058/083 058/088 058/078 053/074 051/078
    1/B 10/U    02/T    12/T    23/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 081 055/083 055/080 055/084 056/076 051/071 050/074
    1/U 10/U    02/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 081 053/087 053/082 053/086 054/075 049/072 047/076
    1/B 10/U    02/T    22/T    33/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271510
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
910 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND. NO CHANGES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

DRY ZONAL FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER MONTANA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING TODAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. DID MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT DID REMOVE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SC/SE MT.
ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN TODAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY THE LATTER PORTIONS.
A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND THIS MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A
STRONG TROUGH AND UPPER LOW MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE TIME PERIODS. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT
THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE BIGHORNS
WITH AN ATTENDANT POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 057/087 059/080 057/084 057/072 051/070 050/074
    0/U 00/U    02/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 083 050/086 051/081 050/082 051/070 045/068 044/074
    0/U 10/U    12/T    13/T    33/T    23/T    31/U
HDN 084 056/088 057/082 056/086 057/074 052/073 050/077
    0/U 10/U    02/T    12/T    33/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 085 059/087 059/082 058/087 058/076 054/073 053/075
    0/U 10/U    02/T    13/T    33/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 084 058/087 058/083 058/088 058/078 053/074 051/078
    1/B 10/U    02/T    12/T    23/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 081 055/083 055/080 055/084 056/076 051/071 050/074
    1/U 10/U    02/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 081 053/087 053/082 053/086 054/075 049/072 047/076
    1/B 10/U    02/T    22/T    33/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270930
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
330 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

DRY ZONAL FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER MONTANA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING TODAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. DID MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT DID REMOVE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SC/SE MT.
ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN TODAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY THE LATTER PORTIONS.
A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND THIS MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A
STRONG TROUGH AND UPPER LOW MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE TIME PERIODS. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WHICH MAY BRING SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 057/087 059/080 057/084 057/072 051/070 050/074
    0/U 00/U    02/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 083 050/086 051/081 050/082 051/070 045/068 044/074
    0/U 10/U    12/T    13/T    33/T    23/T    31/U
HDN 084 056/088 057/082 056/086 057/074 052/073 050/077
    0/U 10/U    02/T    12/T    33/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 085 059/087 059/082 058/087 058/076 054/073 053/075
    0/U 10/U    02/T    13/T    33/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 084 058/087 058/083 058/088 058/078 053/074 051/078
    1/B 10/U    02/T    12/T    23/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 081 055/083 055/080 055/084 056/076 051/071 050/074
    1/U 10/U    02/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 081 053/087 053/082 053/086 054/075 049/072 047/076
    1/B 10/U    02/T    22/T    33/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270930
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
330 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

DRY ZONAL FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER MONTANA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING TODAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. DID MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT DID REMOVE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SC/SE MT.
ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN TODAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY THE LATTER PORTIONS.
A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND THIS MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A
STRONG TROUGH AND UPPER LOW MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THOSE TIME PERIODS. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WHICH MAY BRING SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 057/087 059/080 057/084 057/072 051/070 050/074
    0/U 00/U    02/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U
LVM 083 050/086 051/081 050/082 051/070 045/068 044/074
    0/U 10/U    12/T    13/T    33/T    23/T    31/U
HDN 084 056/088 057/082 056/086 057/074 052/073 050/077
    0/U 10/U    02/T    12/T    33/T    22/T    21/U
MLS 085 059/087 059/082 058/087 058/076 054/073 053/075
    0/U 10/U    02/T    13/T    33/T    22/T    21/U
4BQ 084 058/087 058/083 058/088 058/078 053/074 051/078
    1/B 10/U    02/T    12/T    23/T    22/T    21/U
BHK 081 055/083 055/080 055/084 056/076 051/071 050/074
    1/U 10/U    02/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U
SHR 081 053/087 053/082 053/086 054/075 049/072 047/076
    1/B 10/U    02/T    22/T    33/T    22/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





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