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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021525
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
925 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST. ALL WE DID WITH
THIS UPDATE WAS RAISE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES A BIT ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN...MASSAGED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES BASED ON MORNING OBSERVATIONS...AND
TWEAKED WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING USING RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE. A
WEAK COOL FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 15 UTC
AND IS PROVIDING A SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S F BEHIND THE FRONT AND COMBINED
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER AND
HUMIDITIES RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN THEY WERE ON SATURDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

A SURFACE LOW SCOOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING
AND WAS SITTING IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS HOUR. THIS LOW
PULLED A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT
TODAY UNDERNEATH A STRONG RIDGE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA A BIT COOLER AS THE 30C 850MB AIR WILL OF SATURDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...JUST NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER
TODAY BUT STILL HAVE READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. SHOULD NOT
SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED. THAT AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING WITH A
SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF A CONVECTION FREE DAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IDAHO THROUGH UTAH...WILL
SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL PULL IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND KEEP HUMIDITIES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE INCREASING WINDS...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO THE IDEA OF MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES STAYING AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WAS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING IT ALONG FROM THE WEST. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ENTER SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NOT GETTING INTO OUR WEST UNTIL LATE EVENING. THIS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION OVER THE WEST...AS HAS BEEN THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS OF LATE. HAVE THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS BACK
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CONVECTION WITH LATER ARRIVAL. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES...AND DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODELS ARE NOW PROGGING THE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION TO STALL OVER
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN NEGATIVE
TILT TO SHORTWAVES RADIATING THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
APPEARS TO IMPROVE INFLUX OF PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL FLOW. TWO
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BECOME EVIDENT IN THE MODELS...THE FIRST ON
TUESDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF AND
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS OF 1 INCH WEST TO
1.5 INCHES EAST SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS. RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE. THE
SECOND WAVE IS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COINCIDES WITH
THE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS WAVE LOOKS A BIT WEAKER...AND LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT CERTAINLY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AS LOW
WASHES OUT OVER SASKATCHEWAN...AND RIDGING BEGINS TO REBUILD.
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES BEGIN INCREASING AT THIS POINT...BUT
GENERALLY AGREE ON RIDGING BEING FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED OVER THE
CWA...AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS TROF PUSHES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A STRONG
CONNECTION TO MONSOONAL FLOW...SO LOOKS QUITE WET.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOLED TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS RETURN
TO SEASONAL RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED...WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. EXPECT
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...AND EASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-20
KTS OR LESS. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 060/092 064/079 052/081 056/082 059/086 059/086
    0/U 01/B    25/T    44/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
LVM 093 054/090 058/077 050/083 051/082 052/085 052/083
    0/U 02/T    35/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
HDN 094 058/096 062/083 052/085 054/084 057/087 057/088
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T
MLS 091 061/094 065/085 057/076 055/077 059/086 058/088
    0/U 00/U    25/T    73/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 092 059/092 062/081 057/078 054/077 058/085 058/087
    0/U 00/U    36/T    63/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
BHK 089 057/090 060/082 058/074 053/076 056/083 056/085
    0/U 00/U    13/T    73/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
SHR 094 056/091 058/075 049/082 051/079 053/084 053/085
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021525
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
925 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST. ALL WE DID WITH
THIS UPDATE WAS RAISE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES A BIT ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN...MASSAGED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES BASED ON MORNING OBSERVATIONS...AND
TWEAKED WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING USING RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE. A
WEAK COOL FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 15 UTC
AND IS PROVIDING A SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S F BEHIND THE FRONT AND COMBINED
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER AND
HUMIDITIES RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN THEY WERE ON SATURDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

A SURFACE LOW SCOOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING
AND WAS SITTING IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS HOUR. THIS LOW
PULLED A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT
TODAY UNDERNEATH A STRONG RIDGE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA A BIT COOLER AS THE 30C 850MB AIR WILL OF SATURDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...JUST NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER
TODAY BUT STILL HAVE READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. SHOULD NOT
SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED. THAT AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING WITH A
SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF A CONVECTION FREE DAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IDAHO THROUGH UTAH...WILL
SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL PULL IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND KEEP HUMIDITIES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE INCREASING WINDS...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO THE IDEA OF MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES STAYING AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WAS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING IT ALONG FROM THE WEST. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ENTER SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NOT GETTING INTO OUR WEST UNTIL LATE EVENING. THIS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION OVER THE WEST...AS HAS BEEN THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS OF LATE. HAVE THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS BACK
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CONVECTION WITH LATER ARRIVAL. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES...AND DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODELS ARE NOW PROGGING THE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION TO STALL OVER
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN NEGATIVE
TILT TO SHORTWAVES RADIATING THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
APPEARS TO IMPROVE INFLUX OF PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL FLOW. TWO
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BECOME EVIDENT IN THE MODELS...THE FIRST ON
TUESDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF AND
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS OF 1 INCH WEST TO
1.5 INCHES EAST SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS. RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE. THE
SECOND WAVE IS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COINCIDES WITH
THE LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS WAVE LOOKS A BIT WEAKER...AND LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT CERTAINLY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AS LOW
WASHES OUT OVER SASKATCHEWAN...AND RIDGING BEGINS TO REBUILD.
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES BEGIN INCREASING AT THIS POINT...BUT
GENERALLY AGREE ON RIDGING BEING FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED OVER THE
CWA...AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS TROF PUSHES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A STRONG
CONNECTION TO MONSOONAL FLOW...SO LOOKS QUITE WET.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOLED TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS RETURN
TO SEASONAL RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED...WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. EXPECT
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...AND EASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-20
KTS OR LESS. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 060/092 064/079 052/081 056/082 059/086 059/086
    0/U 01/B    25/T    44/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
LVM 093 054/090 058/077 050/083 051/082 052/085 052/083
    0/U 02/T    35/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
HDN 094 058/096 062/083 052/085 054/084 057/087 057/088
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T
MLS 091 061/094 065/085 057/076 055/077 059/086 058/088
    0/U 00/U    25/T    73/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 092 059/092 062/081 057/078 054/077 058/085 058/087
    0/U 00/U    36/T    63/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
BHK 089 057/090 060/082 058/074 053/076 056/083 056/085
    0/U 00/U    13/T    73/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
SHR 094 056/091 058/075 049/082 051/079 053/084 053/085
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020926
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

A SURFACE LOW SCOOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING
AND WAS SITTING IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS HOUR. THIS LOW
PULLED A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT
TODAY UNDERNEATH A STRONG RIDGE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA A BIT COOLER AS THE 30C 850MB AIR WILL OF SATURDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...JUST NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER
TODAY BUT STILL HAVE READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. SHOULD NOT
SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED. THAT AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING WITH A
SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF A CONVECTION FREE DAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IDAHO THROUGH UTAH...WILL
SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL PULL IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND KEEP HUMIDITIES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE INCREASING WINDS...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO THE IDEA OF MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES STAYING AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WAS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING IT ALONG FROM THE WEST. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ENTER SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NOT GETTING INTO OUR WEST UNTIL LATE EVENING. THIS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION OVER THE WEST...AS HAS BEEN THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS OF LATE. HAVE THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS BACK
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CONVECTION WITH LATER ARRIVAL. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES...AND DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODELS ARE NOW PROGGING TO THE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION TO STALL OVER
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN NEGATIVE
TILT TO SHORTWAVES RADIATING THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
APPEARS TO IMPROVE INFLUX OF PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL FLOW. TWO
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BECOME EVIDENT IN THE MODELS...THE FIRST ON
TUESDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF AND
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS OF 1 INCH WEST TO
1.5 INCHES EAST SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS. RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE. THE
SECOND WAVE IS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COINCIDES WITH
LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS WAVE LOOKS A BIT WEAKER...WITH LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT CERTAINLY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AS LOW
WASHES OUT OVER SASKATCHEWAN...AND RIDGING BEGINS TO REBUILD.
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES BEGIN INCREASING AT THIS POINT...BUT
GENERALLY AGREE ON RIDGING BEING FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED OVER THE
CWA...AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS TROF PUSHES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A STRONG
CONNECTION TO MONSOONAL FLOW...SO LOOKS QUITE WET.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOLED TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS RETURN
TO SEASONAL RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED...WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO POSE ANY PROBLEMS FOR AVIATION. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 060/092 064/079 052/081 056/082 059/086 059/086
    0/U 01/B    25/T    44/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
LVM 093 054/090 058/077 050/083 051/082 052/085 052/083
    0/U 02/T    35/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
HDN 094 058/096 062/083 052/085 054/084 057/087 057/088
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T
MLS 091 061/094 065/085 057/076 055/077 059/086 058/088
    0/U 00/U    25/T    73/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 092 059/092 062/081 057/078 054/077 058/085 058/087
    0/U 00/U    36/T    63/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
BHK 089 057/090 060/082 058/074 053/076 056/083 056/085
    0/U 00/U    13/T    73/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
SHR 094 056/091 058/075 049/082 051/079 053/084 053/085
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020926
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

A SURFACE LOW SCOOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING
AND WAS SITTING IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS HOUR. THIS LOW
PULLED A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT
TODAY UNDERNEATH A STRONG RIDGE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA A BIT COOLER AS THE 30C 850MB AIR WILL OF SATURDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...JUST NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER
TODAY BUT STILL HAVE READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. SHOULD NOT
SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED. THAT AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING WITH A
SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF A CONVECTION FREE DAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IDAHO THROUGH UTAH...WILL
SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL PULL IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND KEEP HUMIDITIES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE INCREASING WINDS...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO THE IDEA OF MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES STAYING AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WAS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING IT ALONG FROM THE WEST. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ENTER SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NOT GETTING INTO OUR WEST UNTIL LATE EVENING. THIS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION OVER THE WEST...AS HAS BEEN THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS OF LATE. HAVE THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS BACK
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CONVECTION WITH LATER ARRIVAL. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES...AND DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODELS ARE NOW PROGGING TO THE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION TO STALL OVER
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN NEGATIVE
TILT TO SHORTWAVES RADIATING THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
APPEARS TO IMPROVE INFLUX OF PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL FLOW. TWO
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BECOME EVIDENT IN THE MODELS...THE FIRST ON
TUESDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF AND
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS OF 1 INCH WEST TO
1.5 INCHES EAST SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS. RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE. THE
SECOND WAVE IS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COINCIDES WITH
LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS WAVE LOOKS A BIT WEAKER...WITH LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT CERTAINLY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AS LOW
WASHES OUT OVER SASKATCHEWAN...AND RIDGING BEGINS TO REBUILD.
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES BEGIN INCREASING AT THIS POINT...BUT
GENERALLY AGREE ON RIDGING BEING FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED OVER THE
CWA...AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS TROF PUSHES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A STRONG
CONNECTION TO MONSOONAL FLOW...SO LOOKS QUITE WET.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOLED TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS RETURN
TO SEASONAL RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED...WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO POSE ANY PROBLEMS FOR AVIATION. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 060/092 064/079 052/081 056/082 059/086 059/086
    0/U 01/B    25/T    44/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
LVM 093 054/090 058/077 050/083 051/082 052/085 052/083
    0/U 02/T    35/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
HDN 094 058/096 062/083 052/085 054/084 057/087 057/088
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T
MLS 091 061/094 065/085 057/076 055/077 059/086 058/088
    0/U 00/U    25/T    73/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 092 059/092 062/081 057/078 054/077 058/085 058/087
    0/U 00/U    36/T    63/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
BHK 089 057/090 060/082 058/074 053/076 056/083 056/085
    0/U 00/U    13/T    73/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
SHR 094 056/091 058/075 049/082 051/079 053/084 053/085
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020926
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

A SURFACE LOW SCOOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING
AND WAS SITTING IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS HOUR. THIS LOW
PULLED A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT
TODAY UNDERNEATH A STRONG RIDGE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA A BIT COOLER AS THE 30C 850MB AIR WILL OF SATURDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...JUST NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER
TODAY BUT STILL HAVE READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. SHOULD NOT
SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED. THAT AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING WITH A
SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF A CONVECTION FREE DAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IDAHO THROUGH UTAH...WILL
SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL PULL IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND KEEP HUMIDITIES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE INCREASING WINDS...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO THE IDEA OF MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES STAYING AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WAS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING IT ALONG FROM THE WEST. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ENTER SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NOT GETTING INTO OUR WEST UNTIL LATE EVENING. THIS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION OVER THE WEST...AS HAS BEEN THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS OF LATE. HAVE THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS BACK
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CONVECTION WITH LATER ARRIVAL. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES...AND DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODELS ARE NOW PROGGING TO THE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION TO STALL OVER
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN NEGATIVE
TILT TO SHORTWAVES RADIATING THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
APPEARS TO IMPROVE INFLUX OF PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL FLOW. TWO
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BECOME EVIDENT IN THE MODELS...THE FIRST ON
TUESDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF AND
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS OF 1 INCH WEST TO
1.5 INCHES EAST SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS. RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE. THE
SECOND WAVE IS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COINCIDES WITH
LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS WAVE LOOKS A BIT WEAKER...WITH LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT CERTAINLY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AS LOW
WASHES OUT OVER SASKATCHEWAN...AND RIDGING BEGINS TO REBUILD.
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES BEGIN INCREASING AT THIS POINT...BUT
GENERALLY AGREE ON RIDGING BEING FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED OVER THE
CWA...AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS TROF PUSHES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A STRONG
CONNECTION TO MONSOONAL FLOW...SO LOOKS QUITE WET.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOLED TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS RETURN
TO SEASONAL RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED...WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO POSE ANY PROBLEMS FOR AVIATION. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 060/092 064/079 052/081 056/082 059/086 059/086
    0/U 01/B    25/T    44/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
LVM 093 054/090 058/077 050/083 051/082 052/085 052/083
    0/U 02/T    35/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
HDN 094 058/096 062/083 052/085 054/084 057/087 057/088
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T
MLS 091 061/094 065/085 057/076 055/077 059/086 058/088
    0/U 00/U    25/T    73/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 092 059/092 062/081 057/078 054/077 058/085 058/087
    0/U 00/U    36/T    63/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
BHK 089 057/090 060/082 058/074 053/076 056/083 056/085
    0/U 00/U    13/T    73/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
SHR 094 056/091 058/075 049/082 051/079 053/084 053/085
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020926
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

A SURFACE LOW SCOOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING
AND WAS SITTING IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS HOUR. THIS LOW
PULLED A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT
TODAY UNDERNEATH A STRONG RIDGE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA A BIT COOLER AS THE 30C 850MB AIR WILL OF SATURDAY
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...JUST NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER
TODAY BUT STILL HAVE READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. SHOULD NOT
SEE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED. THAT AND THE LACK OF ANY FORCING WITH A
SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF A CONVECTION FREE DAY.

THE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IDAHO THROUGH UTAH...WILL
SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL PULL IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND KEEP HUMIDITIES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE INCREASING WINDS...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO THE IDEA OF MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES STAYING AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER THE
EAST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WAS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING IT ALONG FROM THE WEST. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK. THE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ENTER SOUTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY NOT GETTING INTO OUR WEST UNTIL LATE EVENING. THIS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION OVER THE WEST...AS HAS BEEN THE
TREND WITH THE MODELS OF LATE. HAVE THEREFORE TRIMMED POPS BACK
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR CONVECTION WITH LATER ARRIVAL. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES...AND DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

MODELS ARE NOW PROGGING TO THE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION TO STALL OVER
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN NEGATIVE
TILT TO SHORTWAVES RADIATING THROUGH THE REGION...AS WELL AS
APPEARS TO IMPROVE INFLUX OF PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL FLOW. TWO
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HAVE BECOME EVIDENT IN THE MODELS...THE FIRST ON
TUESDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF AND
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS OF 1 INCH WEST TO
1.5 INCHES EAST SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE
STORMS. RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE. THE
SECOND WAVE IS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COINCIDES WITH
LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS WAVE LOOKS A BIT WEAKER...WITH LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT CERTAINLY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AS LOW
WASHES OUT OVER SASKATCHEWAN...AND RIDGING BEGINS TO REBUILD.
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES BEGIN INCREASING AT THIS POINT...BUT
GENERALLY AGREE ON RIDGING BEING FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED OVER THE
CWA...AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS TROF PUSHES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A STRONG
CONNECTION TO MONSOONAL FLOW...SO LOOKS QUITE WET.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOLED TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS RETURN
TO SEASONAL RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED...WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO POSE ANY PROBLEMS FOR AVIATION. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 060/092 064/079 052/081 056/082 059/086 059/086
    0/U 01/B    25/T    44/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
LVM 093 054/090 058/077 050/083 051/082 052/085 052/083
    0/U 02/T    35/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
HDN 094 058/096 062/083 052/085 054/084 057/087 057/088
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T
MLS 091 061/094 065/085 057/076 055/077 059/086 058/088
    0/U 00/U    25/T    73/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 092 059/092 062/081 057/078 054/077 058/085 058/087
    0/U 00/U    36/T    63/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
BHK 089 057/090 060/082 058/074 053/076 056/083 056/085
    0/U 00/U    13/T    73/T    34/T    42/T    22/T
SHR 094 056/091 058/075 049/082 051/079 053/084 053/085
    0/U 01/B    36/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020240
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES FOR PUBLIC ZONE PURPOSES. ANOTHER WARM SUMMER NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER TOMORROW AS WE SWITCH TO
AN EASTERLY WIND IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING
ALOFT STAYS IN CONTROL...AND IN FACT WE LEANED ON THE WARMER AND
DRIER SIDE OF THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLENDS TO BUILD THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE PATTERN AND RECENT VERIFICATION.

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
EXPECT SPEEDS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS THE DEEPLY-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTINESS BEGINS DECOUPLING.
IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM OVERNIGHT...AND WE EXPECT POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED...AND WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER
EVERYWHERE. WE EVEN REMOVED THE MENTION OF STORMS FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ANY
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 12 UTC HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY...WHICH COULD KEEP MIXING FROM GETTING AS
DEEP AS SATURDAY...AND ULTIMATELY MAY KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN SOME PLACES /EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S F/.

MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S F ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
AT 700 MB BETWEEN +11 AND +13 C. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SUGGEST CAPPING
WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT /EXCEPT AROUND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LAST
24 HOURS HAVE BEEN FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PUSH TO ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

COOLER...BUT SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGING ALOFT IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT. THE
12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TAKING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PLUME
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT/S NEAR LAS VEGAS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH-
EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE SOME
CHANCE-STYLE POPS NEAR 40 PERCENT IN PLACE IN THAT TIME FRAME. IT
LOOKS LIKE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THAT MAY GRADUALLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS MODEST
MODEST AT BEST. FORECAST HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
ARE IN THE 80S F PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILING. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/095 061/095 064/086 060/083 059/081 058/084 058/086
    00/U    01/B    24/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
LVM 054/094 054/091 058/082 054/082 053/082 051/083 052/084
    00/U    02/T    33/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
HDN 060/097 058/097 063/086 059/085 057/083 056/086 056/088
    00/U    01/B    24/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    12/T
MLS 062/094 061/094 065/088 062/082 058/082 059/084 058/088
    00/U    00/U    24/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    21/B
4BQ 059/095 059/092 062/084 060/081 058/080 057/084 057/087
    00/U    01/U    24/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 057/090 057/089 060/085 058/079 056/078 056/081 055/085
    00/U    00/U    24/T    43/T    33/T    32/T    22/T
SHR 056/096 057/094 058/080 055/081 053/080 053/083 053/085
    00/U    01/B    34/T    33/T    32/T    22/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 012053
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING
ALOFT STAYS IN CONTROL...AND IN FACT WE LEANED ON THE WARMER AND
DRIER SIDE OF THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLENDS TO BUILD THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE PATTERN AND RECENT VERIFICATION.

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
EXPECT SPEEDS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS THE DEEPLY-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTINESS BEGINS DECOUPLING.
IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM OVERNIGHT...AND WE EXPECT POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED...AND WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER
EVERYWHERE. WE EVEN REMOVED THE MENTION OF STORMS FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ANY
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 12 UTC HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY...WHICH COULD KEEP MIXING FROM GETTING AS
DEEP AS SATURDAY...AND ULTIMATELY MAY KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN SOME PLACES /EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S F/.

MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S F ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
AT 700 MB BETWEEN +11 AND +13 C. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SUGGEST CAPPING
WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT /EXCEPT AROUND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LAST
24 HOURS HAVE BEEN FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PUSH TO ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

COOLER...BUT SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGING ALOFT IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT. THE
12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TAKING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PLUME
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT/S NEAR LAS VEGAS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH-
EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE SOME
CHANCE-STYLE POPS NEAR 40 PERCENT IN PLACE IN THAT TIME FRAME. IT
LOOKS LIKE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THAT MAY GRADUALLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS MODEST
AT BEST. FORECAST HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY ARE IN
THE 80S F PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET...AND TURN MORE EASTERLY IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/095 061/095 064/086 060/083 059/081 058/084 058/086
    00/U    01/B    24/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
LVM 054/094 054/091 058/082 054/082 053/082 051/083 052/084
    00/U    02/T    33/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
HDN 060/097 058/097 063/086 059/085 057/083 056/086 056/088
    00/U    01/B    24/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    12/T
MLS 062/094 061/094 065/088 062/082 058/082 059/084 058/088
    00/U    00/U    24/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    21/B
4BQ 059/095 059/092 062/084 060/081 058/080 057/084 057/087
    00/U    01/U    24/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 057/090 057/089 060/085 058/079 056/078 056/081 055/085
    00/U    00/U    24/T    43/T    33/T    32/T    22/T
SHR 056/096 057/094 058/080 055/081 053/080 053/083 053/085
    00/U    01/B    34/T    33/T    32/T    22/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 012053
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING
ALOFT STAYS IN CONTROL...AND IN FACT WE LEANED ON THE WARMER AND
DRIER SIDE OF THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLENDS TO BUILD THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE PATTERN AND RECENT VERIFICATION.

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
EXPECT SPEEDS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS THE DEEPLY-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTINESS BEGINS DECOUPLING.
IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM OVERNIGHT...AND WE EXPECT POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED...AND WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER
EVERYWHERE. WE EVEN REMOVED THE MENTION OF STORMS FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS AND A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ANY
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 12 UTC HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY...WHICH COULD KEEP MIXING FROM GETTING AS
DEEP AS SATURDAY...AND ULTIMATELY MAY KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN SOME PLACES /EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S F/.

MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S F ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
AT 700 MB BETWEEN +11 AND +13 C. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE PLAINS SUGGEST CAPPING
WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT /EXCEPT AROUND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LAST
24 HOURS HAVE BEEN FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PUSH TO ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

COOLER...BUT SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGING ALOFT IS SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT. THE
12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TAKING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PLUME
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT/S NEAR LAS VEGAS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH-
EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE SOME
CHANCE-STYLE POPS NEAR 40 PERCENT IN PLACE IN THAT TIME FRAME. IT
LOOKS LIKE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE WEEK
AND THAT MAY GRADUALLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS MODEST
AT BEST. FORECAST HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY ARE IN
THE 80S F PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET...AND TURN MORE EASTERLY IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/095 061/095 064/086 060/083 059/081 058/084 058/086
    00/U    01/B    24/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
LVM 054/094 054/091 058/082 054/082 053/082 051/083 052/084
    00/U    02/T    33/T    34/T    43/T    22/T    12/T
HDN 060/097 058/097 063/086 059/085 057/083 056/086 056/088
    00/U    01/B    24/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    12/T
MLS 062/094 061/094 065/088 062/082 058/082 059/084 058/088
    00/U    00/U    24/T    43/T    33/T    22/T    21/B
4BQ 059/095 059/092 062/084 060/081 058/080 057/084 057/087
    00/U    01/U    24/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 057/090 057/089 060/085 058/079 056/078 056/081 055/085
    00/U    00/U    24/T    43/T    33/T    32/T    22/T
SHR 056/096 057/094 058/080 055/081 053/080 053/083 053/085
    00/U    01/B    34/T    33/T    32/T    22/T    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011526
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
926 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST...NAMELY TO RAISE
FORECAST HIGHS TO 100+ F FROM FORSYTH TO MILES CITY AND TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY TO JUST UNDER 10 PERCENT IN
SOME PLACES. BOTH MOVES WERE BASED ON EXPECTED DEEP MIXING TO NEAR
550 MB AND DOWNSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL GUST AROUND
20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS AREN/T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
US TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING...AND THEY WON/T STAY ELEVATED FOR
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...BUT THIS SITUATION IS VERY CLOSE TO NEED-
ING A RED FLAG OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

THIS WILL BE A HOT AND DRY WEEKEND. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ALLOW MIXING TO GENERATE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. BILLINGS WILL BE AROUND 3 DEGREES FROM
RECORD HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY
DRY WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA TODAY AND PROVIDE SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE CREEPS NORTH. THE WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE AND LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. GREAT
IMPROVEMENT IN MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN MADE IN MOVEMENT OF
PACIFIC TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE...WITH ASSOCIATED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE WEST MONDAY EVENING FORCING A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION BEFORE FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS IS A
SLOWER TRANSITIONS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...WITH GREATER IMPACTS
FROM RIDGING...POTENTIAL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND LESSER CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FROM THIS POINT ON SEVERAL
WAVES...WITH ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE...RADIATE OFF THE
PACIFIC LOW THAT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST...BRINGING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.  FROM THIS
POINT MODELS DIVERGE...MAINLY DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE
REDEVELOPS. THE STRONGEST WAVE CROSS THING THE REGION APPEARS TO
BE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. DID RAISE POPS A BIT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS MODELS ARE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WAVE MARKS THE
END OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...INTRODUCING ZONAL FLOW
AS UPPER LOW CROSSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH ZONAL FLOW AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...COOL AIR INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE TROF...SHOULD BRING COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...BUT STILL WITH LOW TO MID 80S. HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS
IN PLACE AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS POINT...DIFFERING ON
HOW QUICKLY TO BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT IN MANY PLACES. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 061/097 062/096 064/089 061/086 060/087 059/083
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
LVM 096 054/094 056/092 057/085 055/083 053/084 052/081
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
HDN 100 057/100 059/099 063/091 059/088 059/088 057/085
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
MLS 101 060/098 062/096 065/087 062/089 062/086 060/085
    0/G 00/U    01/U    33/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
4BQ 099 059/099 060/094 062/086 060/088 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    01/B    24/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 098 057/094 058/091 060/082 058/085 058/082 058/081
    0/U 00/U    01/U    34/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
SHR 098 055/097 057/094 058/088 056/086 055/085 054/084
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011526
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
926 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST...NAMELY TO RAISE
FORECAST HIGHS TO 100+ F FROM FORSYTH TO MILES CITY AND TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY TO JUST UNDER 10 PERCENT IN
SOME PLACES. BOTH MOVES WERE BASED ON EXPECTED DEEP MIXING TO NEAR
550 MB AND DOWNSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL GUST AROUND
20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS AREN/T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
US TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING...AND THEY WON/T STAY ELEVATED FOR
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...BUT THIS SITUATION IS VERY CLOSE TO NEED-
ING A RED FLAG OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

THIS WILL BE A HOT AND DRY WEEKEND. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ALLOW MIXING TO GENERATE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. BILLINGS WILL BE AROUND 3 DEGREES FROM
RECORD HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY
DRY WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA TODAY AND PROVIDE SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE CREEPS NORTH. THE WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE AND LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. GREAT
IMPROVEMENT IN MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN MADE IN MOVEMENT OF
PACIFIC TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE...WITH ASSOCIATED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE WEST MONDAY EVENING FORCING A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION BEFORE FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS IS A
SLOWER TRANSITIONS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...WITH GREATER IMPACTS
FROM RIDGING...POTENTIAL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND LESSER CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FROM THIS POINT ON SEVERAL
WAVES...WITH ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE...RADIATE OFF THE
PACIFIC LOW THAT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST...BRINGING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.  FROM THIS
POINT MODELS DIVERGE...MAINLY DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE
REDEVELOPS. THE STRONGEST WAVE CROSS THING THE REGION APPEARS TO
BE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. DID RAISE POPS A BIT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS MODELS ARE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WAVE MARKS THE
END OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...INTRODUCING ZONAL FLOW
AS UPPER LOW CROSSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH ZONAL FLOW AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...COOL AIR INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE TROF...SHOULD BRING COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...BUT STILL WITH LOW TO MID 80S. HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS
IN PLACE AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS POINT...DIFFERING ON
HOW QUICKLY TO BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT IN MANY PLACES. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 061/097 062/096 064/089 061/086 060/087 059/083
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
LVM 096 054/094 056/092 057/085 055/083 053/084 052/081
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
HDN 100 057/100 059/099 063/091 059/088 059/088 057/085
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
MLS 101 060/098 062/096 065/087 062/089 062/086 060/085
    0/G 00/U    01/U    33/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
4BQ 099 059/099 060/094 062/086 060/088 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    01/B    24/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 098 057/094 058/091 060/082 058/085 058/082 058/081
    0/U 00/U    01/U    34/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
SHR 098 055/097 057/094 058/088 056/086 055/085 054/084
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011526
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
926 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST...NAMELY TO RAISE
FORECAST HIGHS TO 100+ F FROM FORSYTH TO MILES CITY AND TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY TO JUST UNDER 10 PERCENT IN
SOME PLACES. BOTH MOVES WERE BASED ON EXPECTED DEEP MIXING TO NEAR
550 MB AND DOWNSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL GUST AROUND
20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS AREN/T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
US TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING...AND THEY WON/T STAY ELEVATED FOR
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...BUT THIS SITUATION IS VERY CLOSE TO NEED-
ING A RED FLAG OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

THIS WILL BE A HOT AND DRY WEEKEND. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ALLOW MIXING TO GENERATE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. BILLINGS WILL BE AROUND 3 DEGREES FROM
RECORD HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY
DRY WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA TODAY AND PROVIDE SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE CREEPS NORTH. THE WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE AND LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. GREAT
IMPROVEMENT IN MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN MADE IN MOVEMENT OF
PACIFIC TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE...WITH ASSOCIATED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE WEST MONDAY EVENING FORCING A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION BEFORE FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS IS A
SLOWER TRANSITIONS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...WITH GREATER IMPACTS
FROM RIDGING...POTENTIAL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND LESSER CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FROM THIS POINT ON SEVERAL
WAVES...WITH ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE...RADIATE OFF THE
PACIFIC LOW THAT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST...BRINGING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.  FROM THIS
POINT MODELS DIVERGE...MAINLY DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE
REDEVELOPS. THE STRONGEST WAVE CROSS THING THE REGION APPEARS TO
BE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. DID RAISE POPS A BIT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS MODELS ARE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WAVE MARKS THE
END OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...INTRODUCING ZONAL FLOW
AS UPPER LOW CROSSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH ZONAL FLOW AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...COOL AIR INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE TROF...SHOULD BRING COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...BUT STILL WITH LOW TO MID 80S. HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS
IN PLACE AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS POINT...DIFFERING ON
HOW QUICKLY TO BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT IN MANY PLACES. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 061/097 062/096 064/089 061/086 060/087 059/083
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
LVM 096 054/094 056/092 057/085 055/083 053/084 052/081
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
HDN 100 057/100 059/099 063/091 059/088 059/088 057/085
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
MLS 101 060/098 062/096 065/087 062/089 062/086 060/085
    0/G 00/U    01/U    33/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
4BQ 099 059/099 060/094 062/086 060/088 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    01/B    24/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 098 057/094 058/091 060/082 058/085 058/082 058/081
    0/U 00/U    01/U    34/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
SHR 098 055/097 057/094 058/088 056/086 055/085 054/084
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011526
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
926 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY/S FORECAST...NAMELY TO RAISE
FORECAST HIGHS TO 100+ F FROM FORSYTH TO MILES CITY AND TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY TO JUST UNDER 10 PERCENT IN
SOME PLACES. BOTH MOVES WERE BASED ON EXPECTED DEEP MIXING TO NEAR
550 MB AND DOWNSLOPE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL GUST AROUND
20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS AREN/T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
US TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING...AND THEY WON/T STAY ELEVATED FOR
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...BUT THIS SITUATION IS VERY CLOSE TO NEED-
ING A RED FLAG OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

THIS WILL BE A HOT AND DRY WEEKEND. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ALLOW MIXING TO GENERATE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. BILLINGS WILL BE AROUND 3 DEGREES FROM
RECORD HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY
DRY WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA TODAY AND PROVIDE SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE CREEPS NORTH. THE WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE AND LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. GREAT
IMPROVEMENT IN MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN MADE IN MOVEMENT OF
PACIFIC TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE...WITH ASSOCIATED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE WEST MONDAY EVENING FORCING A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION BEFORE FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS IS A
SLOWER TRANSITIONS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...WITH GREATER IMPACTS
FROM RIDGING...POTENTIAL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND LESSER CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FROM THIS POINT ON SEVERAL
WAVES...WITH ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE...RADIATE OFF THE
PACIFIC LOW THAT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST...BRINGING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.  FROM THIS
POINT MODELS DIVERGE...MAINLY DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE
REDEVELOPS. THE STRONGEST WAVE CROSS THING THE REGION APPEARS TO
BE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. DID RAISE POPS A BIT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS MODELS ARE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WAVE MARKS THE
END OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...INTRODUCING ZONAL FLOW
AS UPPER LOW CROSSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH ZONAL FLOW AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...COOL AIR INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE TROF...SHOULD BRING COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY...BUT STILL WITH LOW TO MID 80S. HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS
IN PLACE AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS POINT...DIFFERING ON
HOW QUICKLY TO BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT IN MANY PLACES. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 061/097 062/096 064/089 061/086 060/087 059/083
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
LVM 096 054/094 056/092 057/085 055/083 053/084 052/081
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
HDN 100 057/100 059/099 063/091 059/088 059/088 057/085
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
MLS 101 060/098 062/096 065/087 062/089 062/086 060/085
    0/G 00/U    01/U    33/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
4BQ 099 059/099 060/094 062/086 060/088 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    01/B    24/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 098 057/094 058/091 060/082 058/085 058/082 058/081
    0/U 00/U    01/U    34/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
SHR 098 055/097 057/094 058/088 056/086 055/085 054/084
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010931
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
331 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

THIS WILL BE A HOT AND DRY WEEKEND. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ALLOW MIXING TO GENERATE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. BILLINGS WILL BE AROUND 3 DEGREES FROM
RECORD HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY
DRY WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA TODAY AND PROVIDE SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE CREEPS NORTH. THE WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE AND LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. GREAT
IMPROVEMENT IN MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN MADE IN MOVEMENT OF
PACIFIC TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE...WITH ASSOCIATED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE WEST MONDAY EVENING FORCING A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION BEFORE FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS IS A SLOWER
TRANSITIONS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...WITH GREATER IMPACTS FROM
RIDGING...POTENTIAL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND LESSER CLOUD COVER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FROM THIS POINT ON SEVERAL WAVES...WITH
ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE...RADIATE OFF THE PACIFIC LOW THAT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST...BRINGING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY. FROM THIS POINT MODELS
DIVERGE...MAINLY DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS.
THE STRONGEST WAVE CROSS THING THE REGION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. DID RAISE POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
MODELS ARE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WAVE MARKS THE END OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...INTRODUCING ZONAL FLOW AS UPPER
LOW CROSSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH ZONAL FLOW AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...COOL AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
TROF...SHOULD BRING COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY...BUT STILL
WITH LOW TO MID 80S. HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE AT THIS
TIME...WITH POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS POINT...DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY TO
BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND THE PASSING LOW. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL ROUTES THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH ABOUT
SUNSET...WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 061/097 062/096 064/089 061/086 060/087 059/083
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
LVM 096 054/094 056/092 057/085 055/083 053/084 052/081
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
HDN 099 057/100 059/099 063/091 059/088 059/088 057/085
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
MLS 100 060/098 062/096 065/087 062/089 062/086 060/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    33/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
4BQ 098 059/099 060/094 062/086 060/088 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    01/B    24/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 096 057/094 058/091 060/082 058/085 058/082 058/081
    0/U 00/U    01/U    34/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
SHR 095 055/097 057/094 058/088 056/086 055/085 054/084
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010931
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
331 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

THIS WILL BE A HOT AND DRY WEEKEND. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ALLOW MIXING TO GENERATE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. BILLINGS WILL BE AROUND 3 DEGREES FROM
RECORD HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY
DRY WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA TODAY AND PROVIDE SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE CREEPS NORTH. THE WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE AND LOCATION
FOR CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. GREAT
IMPROVEMENT IN MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BEEN MADE IN MOVEMENT OF
PACIFIC TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE...WITH ASSOCIATED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE WEST MONDAY EVENING FORCING A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION BEFORE FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS IS A SLOWER
TRANSITIONS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...WITH GREATER IMPACTS FROM
RIDGING...POTENTIAL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND LESSER CLOUD COVER
THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FROM THIS POINT ON SEVERAL WAVES...WITH
ASSOCIATED MONSOONAL MOISTURE...RADIATE OFF THE PACIFIC LOW THAT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST...BRINGING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY. FROM THIS POINT MODELS
DIVERGE...MAINLY DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS.
THE STRONGEST WAVE CROSS THING THE REGION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. DID RAISE POPS A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
MODELS ARE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WAVE MARKS THE END OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...INTRODUCING ZONAL FLOW AS UPPER
LOW CROSSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH ZONAL FLOW AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS...COOL AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
TROF...SHOULD BRING COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY...BUT STILL
WITH LOW TO MID 80S. HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE AT THIS
TIME...WITH POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS POINT...DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY TO
BUILD IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND THE PASSING LOW. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL ROUTES THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH ABOUT
SUNSET...WITH HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 061/097 062/096 064/089 061/086 060/087 059/083
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
LVM 096 054/094 056/092 057/085 055/083 053/084 052/081
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    24/T    43/T    22/T
HDN 099 057/100 059/099 063/091 059/088 059/088 057/085
    0/U 00/U    02/T    23/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
MLS 100 060/098 062/096 065/087 062/089 062/086 060/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    33/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
4BQ 098 059/099 060/094 062/086 060/088 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    01/B    24/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 096 057/094 058/091 060/082 058/085 058/082 058/081
    0/U 00/U    01/U    34/T    33/T    44/T    33/T
SHR 095 055/097 057/094 058/088 056/086 055/085 054/084
    0/U 00/U    02/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010245
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
845 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER PURPOSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RELATED TO PUBLIC ZONE
FORECASTS. HOT AND DRY WEEKEND STILL ON TAP. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND DRY TREND. THE RIDGE WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLIMB IN TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MIXING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
ALONG WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE HIGH BASED...STARTING DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. AS THE WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE POPS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A
DIURNAL TREND DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING WITH
ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SOLUTIONS HAS HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND DRIER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/098 061/097 062/093 064/089 061/085 059/085 059/086
    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/094 054/095 056/088 056/085 055/082 053/084 053/084
    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
HDN 060/099 057/100 059/096 061/091 059/088 058/087 057/088
    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 062/099 060/098 062/093 066/088 062/088 061/086 060/087
    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    32/T    23/T    33/T
4BQ 062/098 059/099 060/091 062/088 060/087 059/085 059/087
    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 060/096 057/094 058/088 061/084 059/085 058/082 057/084
    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 058/095 055/097 057/091 058/088 056/085 055/084 054/085
    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010245
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
845 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER PURPOSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RELATED TO PUBLIC ZONE
FORECASTS. HOT AND DRY WEEKEND STILL ON TAP. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND DRY TREND. THE RIDGE WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLIMB IN TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MIXING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
ALONG WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE HIGH BASED...STARTING DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. AS THE WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE POPS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A
DIURNAL TREND DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING WITH
ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SOLUTIONS HAS HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND DRIER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/098 061/097 062/093 064/089 061/085 059/085 059/086
    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/094 054/095 056/088 056/085 055/082 053/084 053/084
    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
HDN 060/099 057/100 059/096 061/091 059/088 058/087 057/088
    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 062/099 060/098 062/093 066/088 062/088 061/086 060/087
    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    32/T    23/T    33/T
4BQ 062/098 059/099 060/091 062/088 060/087 059/085 059/087
    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 060/096 057/094 058/088 061/084 059/085 058/082 057/084
    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 058/095 055/097 057/091 058/088 056/085 055/084 054/085
    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010245
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
845 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER PURPOSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RELATED TO PUBLIC ZONE
FORECASTS. HOT AND DRY WEEKEND STILL ON TAP. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND DRY TREND. THE RIDGE WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLIMB IN TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MIXING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
ALONG WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE HIGH BASED...STARTING DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. AS THE WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE POPS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A
DIURNAL TREND DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING WITH
ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SOLUTIONS HAS HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND DRIER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/098 061/097 062/093 064/089 061/085 059/085 059/086
    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/094 054/095 056/088 056/085 055/082 053/084 053/084
    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
HDN 060/099 057/100 059/096 061/091 059/088 058/087 057/088
    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 062/099 060/098 062/093 066/088 062/088 061/086 060/087
    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    32/T    23/T    33/T
4BQ 062/098 059/099 060/091 062/088 060/087 059/085 059/087
    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 060/096 057/094 058/088 061/084 059/085 058/082 057/084
    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 058/095 055/097 057/091 058/088 056/085 055/084 054/085
    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 312103
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND DRY TREND. THE RIDGE WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLIMB IN TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MIXING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
ALONG WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE HIGH BASED...STARTING DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. AS THE WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE POPS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A
DIURNAL TREND DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING WITH
ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SOLUTIONS HAS HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND DRIER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM MILES CITY EAST. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/098 061/097 062/093 064/089 061/085 059/085 059/086
    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/094 054/095 056/088 056/085 055/082 053/084 053/084
    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
HDN 057/099 057/100 059/096 061/091 059/088 058/087 057/088
    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 060/099 060/098 062/093 066/088 062/088 061/086 060/087
    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    32/T    23/T    33/T
4BQ 058/098 059/099 060/091 062/088 060/087 059/085 059/087
    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 057/096 057/094 058/088 061/084 059/085 058/082 057/084
    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 054/095 055/097 057/091 058/088 056/085 055/084 054/085
    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 312103
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND DRY TREND. THE RIDGE WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLIMB IN TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO DROP HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MIXING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE
ALONG WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE HIGH BASED...STARTING DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. AS THE WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE POPS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A
DIURNAL TREND DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING WITH
ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SOLUTIONS HAS HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND DRIER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM MILES CITY EAST. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/098 061/097 062/093 064/089 061/085 059/085 059/086
    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/094 054/095 056/088 056/085 055/082 053/084 053/084
    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
HDN 057/099 057/100 059/096 061/091 059/088 058/087 057/088
    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 060/099 060/098 062/093 066/088 062/088 061/086 060/087
    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    32/T    23/T    33/T
4BQ 058/098 059/099 060/091 062/088 060/087 059/085 059/087
    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 057/096 057/094 058/088 061/084 059/085 058/082 057/084
    00/U    00/U    01/U    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 054/095 055/097 057/091 058/088 056/085 055/084 054/085
    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 311518
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
918 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA VOID OF CONVECTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF THINGS CONVECTION WISE.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO A
RANGE OF 10-15 PERCENT MOST PLACES IN THE AFTERNOONS. KEEP THE LIP
BALM AND SUN SCREEN HANDY THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WERE QUITE MINOR...CONSISTING OF
TRENDING POPS UP SLIGHTLY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO START THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
TRENDED TEMPS UPWARD BOTH DAYS...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
MONDAY...AS MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND
SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WAVES OF ENERGY RADIATE THROUGH THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROF. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RH VALUES
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MODELS VARY ON PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS...BUT EARLIEST
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BRING
IMPROVED PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND COOLER TEMPS. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 061/097 062/098 063/097 064/089 061/087 060/084
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
LVM 093 050/094 053/095 057/093 056/084 054/084 053/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    13/T    33/T    32/T    33/T
HDN 096 058/099 058/100 061/099 062/091 059/089 059/086
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 096 060/099 061/099 064/097 066/090 063/088 061/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    32/T    33/T
4BQ 095 058/098 060/099 062/096 063/090 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    33/T
BHK 092 057/096 058/096 060/092 061/085 059/084 058/081
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    33/T    34/T
SHR 093 053/094 055/096 058/094 058/088 057/086 055/083
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 311518
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
918 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA VOID OF CONVECTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF THINGS CONVECTION WISE.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO A
RANGE OF 10-15 PERCENT MOST PLACES IN THE AFTERNOONS. KEEP THE LIP
BALM AND SUN SCREEN HANDY THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WERE QUITE MINOR...CONSISTING OF
TRENDING POPS UP SLIGHTLY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO START THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
TRENDED TEMPS UPWARD BOTH DAYS...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
MONDAY...AS MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND
SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WAVES OF ENERGY RADIATE THROUGH THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROF. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RH VALUES
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MODELS VARY ON PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS...BUT EARLIEST
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BRING
IMPROVED PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND COOLER TEMPS. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 061/097 062/098 063/097 064/089 061/087 060/084
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
LVM 093 050/094 053/095 057/093 056/084 054/084 053/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    13/T    33/T    32/T    33/T
HDN 096 058/099 058/100 061/099 062/091 059/089 059/086
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 096 060/099 061/099 064/097 066/090 063/088 061/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    32/T    33/T
4BQ 095 058/098 060/099 062/096 063/090 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    33/T
BHK 092 057/096 058/096 060/092 061/085 059/084 058/081
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    33/T    34/T
SHR 093 053/094 055/096 058/094 058/088 057/086 055/083
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 311518
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
918 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA VOID OF CONVECTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF THINGS CONVECTION WISE.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO A
RANGE OF 10-15 PERCENT MOST PLACES IN THE AFTERNOONS. KEEP THE LIP
BALM AND SUN SCREEN HANDY THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WERE QUITE MINOR...CONSISTING OF
TRENDING POPS UP SLIGHTLY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO START THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
TRENDED TEMPS UPWARD BOTH DAYS...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
MONDAY...AS MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND
SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WAVES OF ENERGY RADIATE THROUGH THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROF. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RH VALUES
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MODELS VARY ON PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS...BUT EARLIEST
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BRING
IMPROVED PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND COOLER TEMPS. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 061/097 062/098 063/097 064/089 061/087 060/084
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
LVM 093 050/094 053/095 057/093 056/084 054/084 053/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    13/T    33/T    32/T    33/T
HDN 096 058/099 058/100 061/099 062/091 059/089 059/086
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 096 060/099 061/099 064/097 066/090 063/088 061/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    32/T    33/T
4BQ 095 058/098 060/099 062/096 063/090 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    33/T
BHK 092 057/096 058/096 060/092 061/085 059/084 058/081
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    33/T    34/T
SHR 093 053/094 055/096 058/094 058/088 057/086 055/083
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 311518
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
918 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA VOID OF CONVECTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF THINGS CONVECTION WISE.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO A
RANGE OF 10-15 PERCENT MOST PLACES IN THE AFTERNOONS. KEEP THE LIP
BALM AND SUN SCREEN HANDY THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WERE QUITE MINOR...CONSISTING OF
TRENDING POPS UP SLIGHTLY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO START THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
TRENDED TEMPS UPWARD BOTH DAYS...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
MONDAY...AS MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND
SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WAVES OF ENERGY RADIATE THROUGH THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROF. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RH VALUES
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MODELS VARY ON PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS...BUT EARLIEST
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BRING
IMPROVED PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND COOLER TEMPS. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 061/097 062/098 063/097 064/089 061/087 060/084
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
LVM 093 050/094 053/095 057/093 056/084 054/084 053/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    13/T    33/T    32/T    33/T
HDN 096 058/099 058/100 061/099 062/091 059/089 059/086
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 096 060/099 061/099 064/097 066/090 063/088 061/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    32/T    33/T
4BQ 095 058/098 060/099 062/096 063/090 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    33/T
BHK 092 057/096 058/096 060/092 061/085 059/084 058/081
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    33/T    34/T
SHR 093 053/094 055/096 058/094 058/088 057/086 055/083
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 310923
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
323 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA VOID OF CONVECTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF THINGS CONVECTION WISE.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO A
RANGE OF 10-15 PERCENT MOST PLACES IN THE AFTERNOONS. KEEP THE LIP
BALM AND SUN SCREEN HANDY THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WERE QUITE MINOR...CONSISTING OF
TRENDING POPS UP SLIGHTLY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO START THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
TRENDED TEMPS UPWARD BOTH DAYS...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
MONDAY...AS MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND SIGNALS
THE BEGINNING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SHIFTS
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WAVES OF ENERGY RADIATE THROUGH THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROF. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RH VALUES
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MODELS VERY ON PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS...BUT EARLIEST
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BRING
IMPROVED PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND COOLER TEMPS. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 061/097 062/098 063/097 064/089 061/087 060/084
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
LVM 093 050/094 053/095 057/093 056/084 054/084 053/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    13/T    33/T    32/T    33/T
HDN 096 058/099 058/100 061/099 062/091 059/089 059/086
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 096 060/099 061/099 064/097 066/090 063/088 061/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    32/T    33/T
4BQ 095 058/098 060/099 062/096 063/090 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    33/T
BHK 092 057/096 058/096 060/092 061/085 059/084 058/081
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    33/T    34/T
SHR 093 053/094 055/096 058/094 058/088 057/086 055/083
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 310923
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
323 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA VOID OF CONVECTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUDS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF THINGS CONVECTION WISE.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO A
RANGE OF 10-15 PERCENT MOST PLACES IN THE AFTERNOONS. KEEP THE LIP
BALM AND SUN SCREEN HANDY THIS WEEKEND. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WERE QUITE MINOR...CONSISTING OF
TRENDING POPS UP SLIGHTLY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TO START THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
TRENDED TEMPS UPWARD BOTH DAYS...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
MONDAY...AS MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND SIGNALS
THE BEGINNING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SHIFTS
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WAVES OF ENERGY RADIATE THROUGH THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROF. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RH VALUES
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MODELS VERY ON PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS...BUT EARLIEST
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD BRING
IMPROVED PRECIP POTENTIAL...AND COOLER TEMPS. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 061/097 062/098 063/097 064/089 061/087 060/084
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
LVM 093 050/094 053/095 057/093 056/084 054/084 053/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    13/T    33/T    32/T    33/T
HDN 096 058/099 058/100 061/099 062/091 059/089 059/086
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
MLS 096 060/099 061/099 064/097 066/090 063/088 061/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    32/T    33/T
4BQ 095 058/098 060/099 062/096 063/090 060/086 059/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    33/T
BHK 092 057/096 058/096 060/092 061/085 059/084 058/081
    0/U 00/U    00/U    02/T    23/T    33/T    34/T
SHR 093 053/094 055/096 058/094 058/088 057/086 055/083
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 310304
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
904 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET WARM SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP JUST A TAD IN A FEW LOCATIONS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A VERY QUIET SUMMER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 90S FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE ONLY BREAK FROM SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
PERIOD. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST COURTESY OF A DEEPENING WEST COAST TROF. THIS FLOW WILL
DRAG MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL HELP TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER
80S BY MID WEEK. MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN IT FINALLY DISLODGES AND SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND.
CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/094 060/097 062/096 064/094 065/090 063/090 063/088
    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/091 053/093 055/091 056/090 056/086 054/087 054/086
    00/U    00/U    11/U    13/T    33/T    32/T    23/T
HDN 056/096 057/098 058/097 064/096 066/093 063/091 063/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 058/096 060/099 061/098 066/095 068/092 065/089 065/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
4BQ 056/095 058/097 060/097 063/094 065/092 062/089 061/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
BHK 055/092 057/094 058/095 061/089 062/086 061/084 061/081
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    23/T    33/T    34/T
SHR 052/093 054/095 055/093 059/091 061/090 060/088 058/086
    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 310304
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
904 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET WARM SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP JUST A TAD IN A FEW LOCATIONS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A VERY QUIET SUMMER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 90S FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE ONLY BREAK FROM SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
PERIOD. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST COURTESY OF A DEEPENING WEST COAST TROF. THIS FLOW WILL
DRAG MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL HELP TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER
80S BY MID WEEK. MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN IT FINALLY DISLODGES AND SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND.
CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/094 060/097 062/096 064/094 065/090 063/090 063/088
    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/091 053/093 055/091 056/090 056/086 054/087 054/086
    00/U    00/U    11/U    13/T    33/T    32/T    23/T
HDN 056/096 057/098 058/097 064/096 066/093 063/091 063/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 058/096 060/099 061/098 066/095 068/092 065/089 065/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
4BQ 056/095 058/097 060/097 063/094 065/092 062/089 061/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
BHK 055/092 057/094 058/095 061/089 062/086 061/084 061/081
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    23/T    33/T    34/T
SHR 052/093 054/095 055/093 059/091 061/090 060/088 058/086
    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302055
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
255 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A VERY QUIET SUMMER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 90S FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE ONLY BREAK FROM SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
PERIOD. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST COURTESY OF A DEEPENING WEST COAST TROF. THIS FLOW WILL
DRAG MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL HELP TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER
80S BY MID WEEK. MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN IT FINALLY DISLODGES AND SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND.
CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
ANTICIPATED. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/094 060/097 062/096 064/094 065/090 063/090 063/088
    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 052/091 053/093 055/091 056/090 056/086 054/087 054/086
    00/U    00/U    11/U    13/T    33/T    32/T    23/T
HDN 055/096 057/098 058/097 064/096 066/093 063/091 063/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 058/096 060/099 061/098 066/095 068/092 065/089 065/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
4BQ 057/095 058/097 060/097 063/094 065/092 062/089 061/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
BHK 055/092 057/094 058/095 061/089 062/086 061/084 061/081
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    23/T    33/T    34/T
SHR 053/093 054/095 055/093 059/091 061/090 060/088 058/086
    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302055
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
255 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A VERY QUIET SUMMER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 90S FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE ONLY BREAK FROM SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
PERIOD. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST COURTESY OF A DEEPENING WEST COAST TROF. THIS FLOW WILL
DRAG MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL HELP TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER
80S BY MID WEEK. MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN IT FINALLY DISLODGES AND SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IF THIS HOLDS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND.
CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
ANTICIPATED. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/094 060/097 062/096 064/094 065/090 063/090 063/088
    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 052/091 053/093 055/091 056/090 056/086 054/087 054/086
    00/U    00/U    11/U    13/T    33/T    32/T    23/T
HDN 055/096 057/098 058/097 064/096 066/093 063/091 063/090
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 058/096 060/099 061/098 066/095 068/092 065/089 065/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
4BQ 057/095 058/097 060/097 063/094 065/092 062/089 061/088
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
BHK 055/092 057/094 058/095 061/089 062/086 061/084 061/081
    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    23/T    33/T    34/T
SHR 053/093 054/095 055/093 059/091 061/090 060/088 058/086
    00/U    00/U    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




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