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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282338
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
438 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ECHOES INCREASING ON BLX RADAR IN OUR CENTRAL PARTS OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND BIL INDEED REPORTED RAIN BRIEFLY LAST HOUR. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS COLD FRONT DROPS INTO OUR CWA.
CIGS SHOULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED WX TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS 00-06Z THIS EVENING. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY LAST NIGHT
HAS EXCITED THE REGION...BUT COLD AIR IS BEING PULLED DOWN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND IT. ASSOCIATED STRATUS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT MIDDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES BY
EVENING. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE A TYPICAL TRADE-OFF BETWEEN CAA AND LINGERING
STRATUS TONIGHT TO MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKY IN OUR EAST...BUT
FEEL CAA WILL GENERALLY WIN OUT AND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO INHERITED
FORECASTS/GUIDANCE. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER US TOMORROW...BUT NOTHING DRASTIC AND WE SHOULD BRIEFLY
SEE SOME SUNSHINE AROUND MIDDAY KEEPING US ON THE MILD SIDE
COMPARED TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN IS STILL ANTICYCLONIC THURSDAY WITH SOME
WEAK QUASI LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT OF CANADA TRACKING THROUGH NE MONTANA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO UNSETTLED AND MUCH
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TO COLDER WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SNOW
APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON SAT. WHILE
MODELS AGREED WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...THE PATTERN DETAILS
DIFFERED BETWEEN THEM.

JET ENERGY WILL DIVE SE INTO THE AREA ON SAT ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHORTWAVE AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. GFS WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL IN BRINGING QPF SW INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF BRING THE QPF IN ON SAT NIGHT.
BASED ON THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGHER
POPS IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA ON SAT...AND WENT WITH MAINLY
CHANCE POPS SAT NIGHT.

FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A FLAT NW FLOW ON THE MODELS FOR SUN
INTO TUE. MODELS HAD PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON SUN BUT DIFFERED IN THEIR QPF DEPICTIONS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REINFORCES THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION ON MON
AND TUE WHILE PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY.
BLENDED POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AS
THE MODELS DIFFERED IN PRECIPITATION DETAILS. INHERITED TUE POPS
LOOKED REASONABLE.

ENERGY THEN WRAPS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS ENERGY WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALSO DIFFERED BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND. RESULT WAS PERIODS OF
SEASONAL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT AREAS E OF KBIL THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND KBHK. THERE WILL BE LOCAL OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE NE BIG HORNS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THU. GUSTY N TO NW SURFACE WINDS FROM KBIL TO
KSHR E WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/048 030/050 028/038 019/030 022/041 027/039 019/032
    10/U    00/U    03/W    33/J    33/W    32/W    23/J
LVM 028/048 027/048 024/040 020/036 025/045 029/043 024/038
    00/U    00/U    03/W    23/J    43/W    32/W    23/W
HDN 025/046 025/048 023/035 015/029 017/038 021/035 015/030
    10/U    00/U    03/W    32/J    33/J    33/J    23/J
MLS 026/044 027/044 024/032 011/023 014/032 017/028 011/025
    10/B    00/U    04/J    22/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
4BQ 026/048 027/049 025/037 015/029 018/039 021/035 016/030
    00/B    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/W    23/J    22/J
BHK 025/040 024/043 021/028 007/020 009/029 015/027 009/023
    20/B    00/U    04/J    32/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
SHR 022/044 020/045 020/037 015/029 016/040 020/038 017/032
    10/U    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/W    32/J    23/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282338
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
438 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ECHOES INCREASING ON BLX RADAR IN OUR CENTRAL PARTS OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND BIL INDEED REPORTED RAIN BRIEFLY LAST HOUR. THIS IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS COLD FRONT DROPS INTO OUR CWA.
CIGS SHOULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED WX TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS 00-06Z THIS EVENING. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY LAST NIGHT
HAS EXCITED THE REGION...BUT COLD AIR IS BEING PULLED DOWN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND IT. ASSOCIATED STRATUS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT MIDDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES BY
EVENING. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE A TYPICAL TRADE-OFF BETWEEN CAA AND LINGERING
STRATUS TONIGHT TO MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKY IN OUR EAST...BUT
FEEL CAA WILL GENERALLY WIN OUT AND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO INHERITED
FORECASTS/GUIDANCE. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER US TOMORROW...BUT NOTHING DRASTIC AND WE SHOULD BRIEFLY
SEE SOME SUNSHINE AROUND MIDDAY KEEPING US ON THE MILD SIDE
COMPARED TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN IS STILL ANTICYCLONIC THURSDAY WITH SOME
WEAK QUASI LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT OF CANADA TRACKING THROUGH NE MONTANA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO UNSETTLED AND MUCH
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TO COLDER WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SNOW
APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON SAT. WHILE
MODELS AGREED WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...THE PATTERN DETAILS
DIFFERED BETWEEN THEM.

JET ENERGY WILL DIVE SE INTO THE AREA ON SAT ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHORTWAVE AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. GFS WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL IN BRINGING QPF SW INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF BRING THE QPF IN ON SAT NIGHT.
BASED ON THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGHER
POPS IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA ON SAT...AND WENT WITH MAINLY
CHANCE POPS SAT NIGHT.

FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A FLAT NW FLOW ON THE MODELS FOR SUN
INTO TUE. MODELS HAD PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON SUN BUT DIFFERED IN THEIR QPF DEPICTIONS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REINFORCES THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION ON MON
AND TUE WHILE PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY.
BLENDED POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AS
THE MODELS DIFFERED IN PRECIPITATION DETAILS. INHERITED TUE POPS
LOOKED REASONABLE.

ENERGY THEN WRAPS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS ENERGY WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALSO DIFFERED BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND. RESULT WAS PERIODS OF
SEASONAL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT AREAS E OF KBIL THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND KBHK. THERE WILL BE LOCAL OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE NE BIG HORNS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THU. GUSTY N TO NW SURFACE WINDS FROM KBIL TO
KSHR E WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/048 030/050 028/038 019/030 022/041 027/039 019/032
    10/U    00/U    03/W    33/J    33/W    32/W    23/J
LVM 028/048 027/048 024/040 020/036 025/045 029/043 024/038
    00/U    00/U    03/W    23/J    43/W    32/W    23/W
HDN 025/046 025/048 023/035 015/029 017/038 021/035 015/030
    10/U    00/U    03/W    32/J    33/J    33/J    23/J
MLS 026/044 027/044 024/032 011/023 014/032 017/028 011/025
    10/B    00/U    04/J    22/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
4BQ 026/048 027/049 025/037 015/029 018/039 021/035 016/030
    00/B    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/W    23/J    22/J
BHK 025/040 024/043 021/028 007/020 009/029 015/027 009/023
    20/B    00/U    04/J    32/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
SHR 022/044 020/045 020/037 015/029 016/040 020/038 017/032
    10/U    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/W    32/J    23/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282145
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
245 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY LAST NIGHT
HAS EXCITED THE REGION...BUT COLD AIR IS BEING PULLED DOWN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND IT. ASSOCIATED STRATUS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT MIDDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES BY
EVENING. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE A TYPICAL TRADE-OFF BETWEEN CAA AND LINGERING
STRATUS TONIGHT TO MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKY IN OUR EAST...BUT
FEEL CAA WILL GENERALLY WIN OUT AND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO INHERITED
FORECASTS/GUIDANCE. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER US TOMORROW...BUT NOTHING DRASTIC AND WE SHOULD BRIEFLY
SEE SOME SUNSHINE AROUND MIDDAY KEEPING US ON THE MILD SIDE
COMPARED TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN IS STILL ANTICYCLONIC THURSDAY WITH SOME
WEAK QUASI LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT OF CANADA TRACKING THROUGH NE MONTANA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO UNSETTLED AND MUCH
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TO COLDER WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SNOW
APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON SAT. WHILE
MODELS AGREED WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...THE PATTERN DETAILS
DIFFERED BETWEEN THEM.

JET ENERGY WILL DIVE SE INTO THE AREA ON SAT ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHORTWAVE AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. GFS WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL IN BRINGING QPF SW INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF BRING THE QPF IN ON SAT NIGHT.
BASED ON THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGHER
POPS IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA ON SAT...AND WENT WITH MAINLY
CHANCE POPS SAT NIGHT.

FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A FLAT NW FLOW ON THE MODELS FOR SUN
INTO TUE. MODELS HAD PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON SUN BUT DIFFERED IN THEIR QPF DEPICTIONS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REINFORCES THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION ON MON
AND TUE WHILE PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY.
BLENDED POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AS
THE MODELS DIFFERED IN PRECIPITATION DETAILS. INHERITED TUE POPS
LOOKED REASONABLE.

ENERGY THEN WRAPS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS ENERGY WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALSO DIFFERED BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND. RESULT WAS PERIODS OF
SEASONAL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT AREAS E OF KBIL THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND KBHK. THERE WILL BE LOCAL OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE NE BIG HORNS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THU. GUSTY N TO NW SURFACE WINDS FROM KBIL TO
KSHR E WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/048 030/050 028/038 019/030 022/041 027/039 019/032
    00/U    00/U    03/W    33/J    33/W    32/W    23/J
LVM 028/048 027/048 024/040 020/036 025/045 029/043 024/038
    00/U    00/U    03/W    23/J    43/W    32/W    23/W
HDN 025/046 025/048 023/035 015/029 017/038 021/035 015/030
    00/U    00/U    03/W    32/J    33/J    33/J    23/J
MLS 026/044 027/044 024/032 011/023 014/032 017/028 011/025
    00/B    00/U    04/J    22/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
4BQ 026/048 027/049 025/037 015/029 018/039 021/035 016/030
    00/B    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/W    23/J    22/J
BHK 025/040 024/043 021/028 007/020 009/029 015/027 009/023
    20/B    00/U    04/J    32/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
SHR 022/044 020/045 020/037 015/029 016/040 020/038 017/032
    00/U    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/W    32/J    23/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282145
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
245 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY LAST NIGHT
HAS EXCITED THE REGION...BUT COLD AIR IS BEING PULLED DOWN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND IT. ASSOCIATED STRATUS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT MIDDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES BY
EVENING. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE A TYPICAL TRADE-OFF BETWEEN CAA AND LINGERING
STRATUS TONIGHT TO MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKY IN OUR EAST...BUT
FEEL CAA WILL GENERALLY WIN OUT AND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO INHERITED
FORECASTS/GUIDANCE. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A COOLER AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER US TOMORROW...BUT NOTHING DRASTIC AND WE SHOULD BRIEFLY
SEE SOME SUNSHINE AROUND MIDDAY KEEPING US ON THE MILD SIDE
COMPARED TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN IS STILL ANTICYCLONIC THURSDAY WITH SOME
WEAK QUASI LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT OF CANADA TRACKING THROUGH NE MONTANA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO UNSETTLED AND MUCH
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TO COLDER WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SNOW
APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING ON SAT. WHILE
MODELS AGREED WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...THE PATTERN DETAILS
DIFFERED BETWEEN THEM.

JET ENERGY WILL DIVE SE INTO THE AREA ON SAT ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHORTWAVE AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. GFS WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL IN BRINGING QPF SW INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF BRING THE QPF IN ON SAT NIGHT.
BASED ON THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF HIGHER
POPS IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA ON SAT...AND WENT WITH MAINLY
CHANCE POPS SAT NIGHT.

FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A FLAT NW FLOW ON THE MODELS FOR SUN
INTO TUE. MODELS HAD PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON SUN BUT DIFFERED IN THEIR QPF DEPICTIONS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REINFORCES THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION ON MON
AND TUE WHILE PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY.
BLENDED POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AS
THE MODELS DIFFERED IN PRECIPITATION DETAILS. INHERITED TUE POPS
LOOKED REASONABLE.

ENERGY THEN WRAPS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS ENERGY WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALSO DIFFERED BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD SO WENT WITH SUPERBLEND. RESULT WAS PERIODS OF
SEASONAL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT AREAS E OF KBIL THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING DUE TO CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND KBHK. THERE WILL BE LOCAL OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE NE BIG HORNS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THU. GUSTY N TO NW SURFACE WINDS FROM KBIL TO
KSHR E WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/048 030/050 028/038 019/030 022/041 027/039 019/032
    00/U    00/U    03/W    33/J    33/W    32/W    23/J
LVM 028/048 027/048 024/040 020/036 025/045 029/043 024/038
    00/U    00/U    03/W    23/J    43/W    32/W    23/W
HDN 025/046 025/048 023/035 015/029 017/038 021/035 015/030
    00/U    00/U    03/W    32/J    33/J    33/J    23/J
MLS 026/044 027/044 024/032 011/023 014/032 017/028 011/025
    00/B    00/U    04/J    22/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
4BQ 026/048 027/049 025/037 015/029 018/039 021/035 016/030
    00/B    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/W    23/J    22/J
BHK 025/040 024/043 021/028 007/020 009/029 015/027 009/023
    20/B    00/U    04/J    32/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
SHR 022/044 020/045 020/037 015/029 016/040 020/038 017/032
    00/U    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/W    32/J    23/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281710
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1010 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE RELATED VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND TREND OF MESOSCALE MODELS ENDING
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. COLD AIR IS
FILLING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED IN GOOD CAA
AT 850MB AND WILL MAKE AFTERNOON HIGHS TRICKY TODAY. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS MAY HAVE ALREADY HIT THEIR MAX HIGHS OR MAY NOT SEE MUCH
MORE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY. I ADJUSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT TO
ALLOW FOR JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN WE ARE SEEING
CURRENTLY...BUT DO NOT FEEL REAL CONFIDENT HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT
WITH CAA BALANCED BY DOWNSLOPE AND THINNING CLOUD COVER. ALSO
ADJUSTED POPS LOWER FOR DECREASING RADAR RETURNS AND LIMITED
MEASURABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TURNED EAST AND IS MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIP HAS REMAINED MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRAGGING THE PRECIP
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WYOMING DURING THE DAY
TODAY. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA...AND THUS HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE
UPPER END OF THE GEFS SOLUTIONS. THE NAM IS ON THE LOWER END OF
THE SPREAD. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN FOR
TODAY...BUT REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE GEFS MEAN.

AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE WIND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE
STRONG FOR LONG...WITH WINDS BACK DOWN TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MID
EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. WITH THE LIGHT NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER FOR THURSDAY...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

WINTER IS GOING TO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW COLD ITS GOING TO GET AND HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL. CONSISTENCY WITH THE FORECAST IS IMPROVED FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...BUT THE LATER EXTENDED IS STILL
MESSY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION.

DOWNSLOPE PRE-FRONTAL FLOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND 30S
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. AS WITH ANY ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOME
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS FOOTHILLS. COLD AIR LINGERS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND KEPT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAIN MESSY AS MODELS HAVE
CAUGHT ONTO THE PRESENCE OF A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER CANADA
BUT HAVE YET TO FIGURE OUT WHERE ITS GOING TO GO. ONE RUN IT DROPS
STRAIGHT INTO MONTANA THE NEXT ITS HEADED INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHERE THIS COLD POOL SETTLES IS A
STRONG PACIFIC JET AND WEST COAST RIDGE STRENGTH. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC HAVE AT TIMES KEPT THE RIDGE STRONG DEFLECTING PACIFIC JET
NORTH AND ALLOWING THE COLD POOL TO PLUNGE INTO MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS...BUT BOTH HAVE ALSO SHOWN THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO PUSH THE COLD AIR WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
IS GOING TO GET VERY COLD NEXT WEEK BUT STILL TRYING TO SORT OUT
WHERE AND WHEN. MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 TO 7
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH IN SCHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HUGE GUIDANCE SPREAD WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON USHERING
IN GUSTY N TO NW SURFACE WINDS E OF KBIL. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 KT IN THIS AREA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTY W TO SW SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
OVER AND NEAR THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS THROUGH
18Z AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LINGER OVER THE NE BIG HORNS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 029/046 030/046 026/035 017/026 014/036 024/039
    1/B 00/U    00/U    15/S    43/S    33/S    32/S
LVM 048 027/047 028/045 022/039 015/030 018/036 021/037
    1/B 00/U    00/U    16/S    34/S    54/S    32/S
HDN 045 025/045 025/045 024/034 014/026 012/034 020/036
    1/B 00/U    00/U    14/S    43/S    33/S    33/S
MLS 046 025/044 027/042 024/030 010/021 008/029 016/028
    0/N 00/U    00/U    24/S    33/S    23/S    23/S
4BQ 049 025/046 027/046 024/035 013/024 010/031 017/033
    1/N 00/U    00/U    04/S    33/S    23/S    23/S
BHK 042 025/039 025/042 021/025 007/018 002/024 012/026
    0/N 20/B    00/U    24/S    32/S    22/S    23/S
SHR 050 021/043 021/044 022/036 013/026 011/034 018/038
    4/W 00/U    00/U    15/S    42/S    32/S    32/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281710
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1010 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SHORT WAVE RELATED VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND TREND OF MESOSCALE MODELS ENDING
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. COLD AIR IS
FILLING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH AS NOTED IN GOOD CAA
AT 850MB AND WILL MAKE AFTERNOON HIGHS TRICKY TODAY. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS MAY HAVE ALREADY HIT THEIR MAX HIGHS OR MAY NOT SEE MUCH
MORE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY. I ADJUSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT TO
ALLOW FOR JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAN WE ARE SEEING
CURRENTLY...BUT DO NOT FEEL REAL CONFIDENT HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT
WITH CAA BALANCED BY DOWNSLOPE AND THINNING CLOUD COVER. ALSO
ADJUSTED POPS LOWER FOR DECREASING RADAR RETURNS AND LIMITED
MEASURABLE RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TURNED EAST AND IS MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIP HAS REMAINED MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRAGGING THE PRECIP
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WYOMING DURING THE DAY
TODAY. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA...AND THUS HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE
UPPER END OF THE GEFS SOLUTIONS. THE NAM IS ON THE LOWER END OF
THE SPREAD. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN FOR
TODAY...BUT REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE GEFS MEAN.

AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE WIND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE
STRONG FOR LONG...WITH WINDS BACK DOWN TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MID
EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. WITH THE LIGHT NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER FOR THURSDAY...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

WINTER IS GOING TO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW COLD ITS GOING TO GET AND HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL. CONSISTENCY WITH THE FORECAST IS IMPROVED FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...BUT THE LATER EXTENDED IS STILL
MESSY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION.

DOWNSLOPE PRE-FRONTAL FLOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND 30S
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. AS WITH ANY ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOME
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS FOOTHILLS. COLD AIR LINGERS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND KEPT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAIN MESSY AS MODELS HAVE
CAUGHT ONTO THE PRESENCE OF A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER CANADA
BUT HAVE YET TO FIGURE OUT WHERE ITS GOING TO GO. ONE RUN IT DROPS
STRAIGHT INTO MONTANA THE NEXT ITS HEADED INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHERE THIS COLD POOL SETTLES IS A
STRONG PACIFIC JET AND WEST COAST RIDGE STRENGTH. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC HAVE AT TIMES KEPT THE RIDGE STRONG DEFLECTING PACIFIC JET
NORTH AND ALLOWING THE COLD POOL TO PLUNGE INTO MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS...BUT BOTH HAVE ALSO SHOWN THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO PUSH THE COLD AIR WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
IS GOING TO GET VERY COLD NEXT WEEK BUT STILL TRYING TO SORT OUT
WHERE AND WHEN. MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 TO 7
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH IN SCHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HUGE GUIDANCE SPREAD WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON USHERING
IN GUSTY N TO NW SURFACE WINDS E OF KBIL. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 KT IN THIS AREA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTY W TO SW SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
OVER AND NEAR THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS THROUGH
18Z AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LINGER OVER THE NE BIG HORNS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 029/046 030/046 026/035 017/026 014/036 024/039
    1/B 00/U    00/U    15/S    43/S    33/S    32/S
LVM 048 027/047 028/045 022/039 015/030 018/036 021/037
    1/B 00/U    00/U    16/S    34/S    54/S    32/S
HDN 045 025/045 025/045 024/034 014/026 012/034 020/036
    1/B 00/U    00/U    14/S    43/S    33/S    33/S
MLS 046 025/044 027/042 024/030 010/021 008/029 016/028
    0/N 00/U    00/U    24/S    33/S    23/S    23/S
4BQ 049 025/046 027/046 024/035 013/024 010/031 017/033
    1/N 00/U    00/U    04/S    33/S    23/S    23/S
BHK 042 025/039 025/042 021/025 007/018 002/024 012/026
    0/N 20/B    00/U    24/S    32/S    22/S    23/S
SHR 050 021/043 021/044 022/036 013/026 011/034 018/038
    4/W 00/U    00/U    15/S    42/S    32/S    32/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281021
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TURNED EAST AND IS MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIP HAS REMAINED MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRAGGING THE PRECIP
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WYOMING DURING THE DAY
TODAY. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA...AND THUS HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE
UPPER END OF THE GEFS SOLUTIONS. THE NAM IS ON THE LOWER END OF
THE SPREAD. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN FOR
TODAY...BUT REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE GEFS MEAN.

AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE WIND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE
STRONG FOR LONG...WITH WINDS BACK DOWN TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MID
EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. WITH THE LIGHT NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER FOR THURSDAY...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

WINTER IS GOING TO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW COLD ITS GOING TO GET AND HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL. CONSISTENCY WITH THE FORECAST IS IMPROVED FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...BUT THE LATER EXTENDED IS STILL
MESSY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION.

DOWNSLOPE PRE-FRONTAL FLOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND 30S
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. AS WITH ANY ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOME
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS FOOTHILLS. COLD AIR LINGERS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND KEPT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAIN MESSY AS MODELS HAVE
CAUGHT ONTO THE PRESENCE OF A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER CANADA
BUT HAVE YET TO FIGURE OUT WHERE ITS GOING TO GO. ONE RUN IT DROPS
STRAIGHT INTO MONTANA THE NEXT ITS HEADED INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHERE THIS COLD POOL SETTLES IS A
STRONG PACIFIC JET AND WEST COAST RIDGE STRENGTH. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC HAVE AT TIMES KEPT THE RIDGE STRONG DEFLECTING PACIFIC JET
NORTH AND ALLOWING THE COLD POOL TO PLUNGE INTO MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS...BUT BOTH HAVE ALSO SHOWN THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO PUSH THE COLD AIR WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
IS GOING TO GET VERY COLD NEXT WEEK BUT STILL TRYING TO SORT OUT
WHERE AND WHEN. MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 TO 7
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH IN SCHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HUGE GUIDANCE SPREAD WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

TWO DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH MID
DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID DAY OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS...INCLUDING KLVM...BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND
GUST 30 TO 40KTS AT TIMES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 029/046 030/046 026/035 017/026 014/036 024/039
    1/E 00/U    00/U    15/S    43/S    33/S    32/S
LVM 049 027/047 028/045 022/039 015/030 018/036 021/037
    3/W 00/U    00/U    16/S    34/S    54/S    32/S
HDN 046 025/045 025/045 024/034 014/026 012/034 020/036
    1/E 00/U    00/U    14/S    43/S    33/S    33/S
MLS 045 025/044 027/042 024/030 010/021 008/029 016/028
    0/N 00/U    00/U    24/S    33/S    23/S    23/S
4BQ 047 025/046 027/046 024/035 013/024 010/031 017/033
    1/N 00/U    00/U    04/S    33/S    23/S    23/S
BHK 040 025/039 025/042 021/025 007/018 002/024 012/026
    0/N 10/B    00/U    24/S    32/S    22/S    23/S
SHR 047 021/043 021/044 022/036 013/026 011/034 018/038
    4/W 00/U    00/U    15/S    42/S    32/S    32/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281021
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TURNED EAST AND IS MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIP HAS REMAINED MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRAGGING THE PRECIP
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WYOMING DURING THE DAY
TODAY. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA...AND THUS HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE
UPPER END OF THE GEFS SOLUTIONS. THE NAM IS ON THE LOWER END OF
THE SPREAD. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN FOR
TODAY...BUT REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE GEFS MEAN.

AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE WIND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE
STRONG FOR LONG...WITH WINDS BACK DOWN TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MID
EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. WITH THE LIGHT NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER FOR THURSDAY...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

WINTER IS GOING TO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW COLD ITS GOING TO GET AND HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL. CONSISTENCY WITH THE FORECAST IS IMPROVED FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...BUT THE LATER EXTENDED IS STILL
MESSY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION.

DOWNSLOPE PRE-FRONTAL FLOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND 30S
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. AS WITH ANY ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOME
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS FOOTHILLS. COLD AIR LINGERS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND KEPT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAIN MESSY AS MODELS HAVE
CAUGHT ONTO THE PRESENCE OF A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER CANADA
BUT HAVE YET TO FIGURE OUT WHERE ITS GOING TO GO. ONE RUN IT DROPS
STRAIGHT INTO MONTANA THE NEXT ITS HEADED INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHERE THIS COLD POOL SETTLES IS A
STRONG PACIFIC JET AND WEST COAST RIDGE STRENGTH. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC HAVE AT TIMES KEPT THE RIDGE STRONG DEFLECTING PACIFIC JET
NORTH AND ALLOWING THE COLD POOL TO PLUNGE INTO MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS...BUT BOTH HAVE ALSO SHOWN THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO PUSH THE COLD AIR WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
IS GOING TO GET VERY COLD NEXT WEEK BUT STILL TRYING TO SORT OUT
WHERE AND WHEN. MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 TO 7
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH IN SCHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HUGE GUIDANCE SPREAD WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

TWO DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH MID
DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID DAY OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS...INCLUDING KLVM...BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND
GUST 30 TO 40KTS AT TIMES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 029/046 030/046 026/035 017/026 014/036 024/039
    1/E 00/U    00/U    15/S    43/S    33/S    32/S
LVM 049 027/047 028/045 022/039 015/030 018/036 021/037
    3/W 00/U    00/U    16/S    34/S    54/S    32/S
HDN 046 025/045 025/045 024/034 014/026 012/034 020/036
    1/E 00/U    00/U    14/S    43/S    33/S    33/S
MLS 045 025/044 027/042 024/030 010/021 008/029 016/028
    0/N 00/U    00/U    24/S    33/S    23/S    23/S
4BQ 047 025/046 027/046 024/035 013/024 010/031 017/033
    1/N 00/U    00/U    04/S    33/S    23/S    23/S
BHK 040 025/039 025/042 021/025 007/018 002/024 012/026
    0/N 10/B    00/U    24/S    32/S    22/S    23/S
SHR 047 021/043 021/044 022/036 013/026 011/034 018/038
    4/W 00/U    00/U    15/S    42/S    32/S    32/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280329
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
829 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA OF PV LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ID WITH A 60 KT H3 SWLY JET
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS TO OUR SW WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE WEST
YELLOWSTONE AREA. GIVEN THIS AND LATEST HIGH RES MODELS LOOKS LIKE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. PCPN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS PV MOVES
INTO SD/NE. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR POP/QPF ADJUSTMENTS BUT OVERALL
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AREA OF CLEARING IN SOUTHEAST
MT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...BUT IN THE
MEANTIME SOME VALLEYS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO THE 30S DESPITE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. WE WILL SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...MODEST PRESSURE
RISES ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MT THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL YIELD A MUCH COOLER DAY TOMORROW BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL WELL ABOVE LATE JANUARY NORMALS. WE WILL SEE A GUSTY NW WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA AND HAVE TWEAKED WINDS/GUSTS UP SOME FOR
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN UNUSUALLY WARM
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL PROGGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A SUBTROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE ALOFT. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS LATER
TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACH OUR SW ZONES THIS EVENING. THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY MID
LEVEL AND LIFT IS MODERATE AT BEST. THUS I EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF
VIRGA OR SPRINKLES OVER THE PLAINS...BUT SOME DECENT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO AROUND 7
KFT LATE TONIGHT...BUT BEING OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN...I DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS PILE UP MUCH LOWER THAN THIS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA...AND THIS WILL TAKE IT BY THE BIG HORNS AS WELL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE SHERIDAN AREA
BRIEFLY AT SOME POINT AS WELL. THE CLOUD COVER AND HEIGHT FALLS
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...BUT STILL GENERALLY
ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE JANUARY.

THINGS DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE BEEN MODIFIED A
BIT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH STILL
SOMEWHAT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWED
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SIMILARLY...THE GFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL NOT BE
VERY HIGH WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ON FRI WITH A FLAT NW FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG 131W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES INTO THE SW U.S.. MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM S OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT DRIVING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. FRI LOOKED DRY ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS. THE MODELS THEN DIFFERED ON FRONTAL AND PRECIPITATION TIMING
INTO THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS WHICH RESULTED IN THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SAT. FLOW
WILL REMAIN BASICALLY NW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE WITH RIDGING
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET
REINFORCED THROUGH SUN AND PACIFIC FLOW WILL OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WILL AGAIN NEED TO
GO WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MON...THEN THE BOUNDARY WAS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ON THE GFS ON TUE. THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE
BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE AREA ON TUE. SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. PREVIOUS FORECAST CARRIED THIS IDEA
WELL.

THERE WERE LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WAYS
THE MODELS HANDLED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL GO WITH SUPER
BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD INTO THE BIGHORNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30KTS AT KLVM THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25KTS. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/054 029/046 029/049 028/038 019/032 019/035 021/035
    11/N    00/B    00/U    13/W    23/J    33/J    22/W
LVM 041/051 027/047 029/048 024/040 018/037 023/041 024/040
    33/W    00/B    01/U    13/W    23/J    44/W    32/W
HDN 036/051 024/044 025/048 023/035 014/031 014/033 015/034
    01/E    00/B    00/U    13/J    22/J    33/J    22/J
MLS 036/048 026/043 026/044 024/032 014/027 010/027 012/028
    00/N    00/B    00/B    13/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
4BQ 034/051 025/046 027/047 025/037 016/032 014/034 017/035
    00/N    00/B    00/B    13/W    22/J    22/J    22/W
BHK 032/045 025/039 025/043 023/029 010/024 007/023 011/028
    00/N    10/B    00/B    13/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
SHR 031/049 021/043 022/045 020/036 013/033 014/036 017/034
    23/W    00/B    00/B    13/J    32/J    33/W    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280329
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
829 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA OF PV LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ID WITH A 60 KT H3 SWLY JET
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS TO OUR SW WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE WEST
YELLOWSTONE AREA. GIVEN THIS AND LATEST HIGH RES MODELS LOOKS LIKE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. PCPN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS PV MOVES
INTO SD/NE. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR POP/QPF ADJUSTMENTS BUT OVERALL
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. AREA OF CLEARING IN SOUTHEAST
MT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...BUT IN THE
MEANTIME SOME VALLEYS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO THE 30S DESPITE HIGH
TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. WE WILL SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...MODEST PRESSURE
RISES ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MT THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL YIELD A MUCH COOLER DAY TOMORROW BUT WITH TEMPS
STILL WELL ABOVE LATE JANUARY NORMALS. WE WILL SEE A GUSTY NW WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA AND HAVE TWEAKED WINDS/GUSTS UP SOME FOR
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN UNUSUALLY WARM
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL PROGGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A SUBTROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE ALOFT. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS LATER
TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACH OUR SW ZONES THIS EVENING. THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY MID
LEVEL AND LIFT IS MODERATE AT BEST. THUS I EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF
VIRGA OR SPRINKLES OVER THE PLAINS...BUT SOME DECENT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO AROUND 7
KFT LATE TONIGHT...BUT BEING OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN...I DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS PILE UP MUCH LOWER THAN THIS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA...AND THIS WILL TAKE IT BY THE BIG HORNS AS WELL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE SHERIDAN AREA
BRIEFLY AT SOME POINT AS WELL. THE CLOUD COVER AND HEIGHT FALLS
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...BUT STILL GENERALLY
ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE JANUARY.

THINGS DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE BEEN MODIFIED A
BIT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH STILL
SOMEWHAT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWED
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SIMILARLY...THE GFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL NOT BE
VERY HIGH WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ON FRI WITH A FLAT NW FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG 131W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES INTO THE SW U.S.. MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM S OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT DRIVING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. FRI LOOKED DRY ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS. THE MODELS THEN DIFFERED ON FRONTAL AND PRECIPITATION TIMING
INTO THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS WHICH RESULTED IN THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SAT. FLOW
WILL REMAIN BASICALLY NW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE WITH RIDGING
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET
REINFORCED THROUGH SUN AND PACIFIC FLOW WILL OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WILL AGAIN NEED TO
GO WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MON...THEN THE BOUNDARY WAS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ON THE GFS ON TUE. THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE
BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE AREA ON TUE. SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. PREVIOUS FORECAST CARRIED THIS IDEA
WELL.

THERE WERE LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WAYS
THE MODELS HANDLED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL GO WITH SUPER
BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD INTO THE BIGHORNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30KTS AT KLVM THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25KTS. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/054 029/046 029/049 028/038 019/032 019/035 021/035
    11/N    00/B    00/U    13/W    23/J    33/J    22/W
LVM 041/051 027/047 029/048 024/040 018/037 023/041 024/040
    33/W    00/B    01/U    13/W    23/J    44/W    32/W
HDN 036/051 024/044 025/048 023/035 014/031 014/033 015/034
    01/E    00/B    00/U    13/J    22/J    33/J    22/J
MLS 036/048 026/043 026/044 024/032 014/027 010/027 012/028
    00/N    00/B    00/B    13/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
4BQ 034/051 025/046 027/047 025/037 016/032 014/034 017/035
    00/N    00/B    00/B    13/W    22/J    22/J    22/W
BHK 032/045 025/039 025/043 023/029 010/024 007/023 011/028
    00/N    10/B    00/B    13/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
SHR 031/049 021/043 022/045 020/036 013/033 014/036 017/034
    23/W    00/B    00/B    13/J    32/J    33/W    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272135
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
235 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN UNUSUALLY WARM
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL PROGGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A SUBTROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE ALOFT. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS LATER
TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACH OUR SW ZONES THIS EVENING. THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY MID
LEVEL AND LIFT IS MODERATE AT BEST. THUS I EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF
VIRGA OR SPRINKLES OVER THE PLAINS...BUT SOME DECENT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO AROUND 6KFT
LATE TONIGHT...BUT BEING OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN...I DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS PILE UP MUCH LOWER THAN THIS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
AREA...AND THIS WILL TAKE IT BY THE BIG HORNS AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE SHERIDAN AREA BRIEFLY AT SOME
POINT AS WELL. THE CLOUD COVER AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...BUT STILL GENERALLY ON THE MILD
SIDE FOR LATE JANUARY.

THINGS DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE BEEN MODIFIED A
BIT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH STILL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWED
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SIMILARLY...THE GFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL NOT BE
VERY HIGH WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ON FRI WITH A FLAT NW FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG 131W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES INTO THE SW U.S.. MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM S OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT DRIVING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. FRI LOOKED DRY ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS. THE MODELS THEN DIFFERED ON FRONTAL AND PRECIPITATION TIMING
INTO THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS WHICH RESULTED IN THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SAT. FLOW
WILL REMAIN BASICALLY NW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE WITH RIDGING
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET
REINFORCED THROUGH SUN AND PACIFIC FLOW WILL OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WILL AGAIN NEED TO
GO WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MON...THEN THE BOUNDARY WAS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ON THE GFS ON TUE. THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE
BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE AREA ON TUE. SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. PREVIOUS FORECAST CARRIED THIS IDEA
WELL.

THERE WERE LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WAYS
THE MODELS HANDLED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL GO WITH SUPER
BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE NE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KLVM SE
TO KSHR. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING AS WELL...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE WED AFTERNOON CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY AREAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW WED AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/054 029/046 029/049 028/038 019/032 019/035 021/035
    11/E    00/B    00/U    13/W    23/J    33/J    22/W
LVM 041/051 027/047 029/048 024/040 018/037 023/041 024/040
    33/W    00/B    01/U    13/W    23/J    44/W    32/W
HDN 036/051 024/044 025/048 023/035 014/031 014/033 015/034
    01/E    00/B    00/U    13/J    22/J    33/J    22/J
MLS 037/048 026/043 026/044 024/032 014/027 010/027 012/028
    00/N    00/B    00/B    13/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
4BQ 035/051 025/046 027/047 025/037 016/032 014/034 017/035
    00/E    00/B    00/B    13/W    22/J    22/J    22/W
BHK 034/045 025/039 025/043 023/029 010/024 007/023 011/028
    00/N    10/B    00/B    13/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
SHR 032/049 021/043 022/045 020/036 013/033 014/036 017/034
    33/W    00/B    00/B    13/J    32/J    33/W    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272135
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
235 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN UNUSUALLY WARM
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL PROGGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A SUBTROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE ALOFT. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS LATER
TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACH OUR SW ZONES THIS EVENING. THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY MID
LEVEL AND LIFT IS MODERATE AT BEST. THUS I EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF
VIRGA OR SPRINKLES OVER THE PLAINS...BUT SOME DECENT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO AROUND 6KFT
LATE TONIGHT...BUT BEING OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN...I DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS PILE UP MUCH LOWER THAN THIS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
AREA...AND THIS WILL TAKE IT BY THE BIG HORNS AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE SHERIDAN AREA BRIEFLY AT SOME
POINT AS WELL. THE CLOUD COVER AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...BUT STILL GENERALLY ON THE MILD
SIDE FOR LATE JANUARY.

THINGS DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE BEEN MODIFIED A
BIT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH STILL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWED
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SIMILARLY...THE GFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL NOT BE
VERY HIGH WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ON FRI WITH A FLAT NW FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG 131W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES INTO THE SW U.S.. MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM S OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT DRIVING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. FRI LOOKED DRY ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS. THE MODELS THEN DIFFERED ON FRONTAL AND PRECIPITATION TIMING
INTO THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS WHICH RESULTED IN THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SAT. FLOW
WILL REMAIN BASICALLY NW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUE WITH RIDGING
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET
REINFORCED THROUGH SUN AND PACIFIC FLOW WILL OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WILL AGAIN NEED TO
GO WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MON...THEN THE BOUNDARY WAS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT ON THE GFS ON TUE. THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE
BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE AREA ON TUE. SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. PREVIOUS FORECAST CARRIED THIS IDEA
WELL.

THERE WERE LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WAYS
THE MODELS HANDLED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL GO WITH SUPER
BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE NE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KLVM SE
TO KSHR. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING AS WELL...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS. PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE WED AFTERNOON CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY AREAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW WED AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/054 029/046 029/049 028/038 019/032 019/035 021/035
    11/E    00/B    00/U    13/W    23/J    33/J    22/W
LVM 041/051 027/047 029/048 024/040 018/037 023/041 024/040
    33/W    00/B    01/U    13/W    23/J    44/W    32/W
HDN 036/051 024/044 025/048 023/035 014/031 014/033 015/034
    01/E    00/B    00/U    13/J    22/J    33/J    22/J
MLS 037/048 026/043 026/044 024/032 014/027 010/027 012/028
    00/N    00/B    00/B    13/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
4BQ 035/051 025/046 027/047 025/037 016/032 014/034 017/035
    00/E    00/B    00/B    13/W    22/J    22/J    22/W
BHK 034/045 025/039 025/043 023/029 010/024 007/023 011/028
    00/N    10/B    00/B    13/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
SHR 032/049 021/043 022/045 020/036 013/033 014/036 017/034
    33/W    00/B    00/B    13/J    32/J    33/W    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271611
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
911 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST. MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME RECORD
OR NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN. WEAK SUB-TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE UNDERCUTTING RIDGE STILL ON TARGET TO BRING SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY TWO THINGS...MIXING WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND ANY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS HAS GIVEN TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
THAT WILL AGAIN BE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WYOMING TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THUS MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE RICH AND
COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER TOMORROW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL INCREASE...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING 30 TO 40 MPH MAINLY
ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.

REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME COMING TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD. WEAKER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PUSH SOME DIFFUSE ENERGY AND PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA WHILE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE MID 40S. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WEST COAST RIDGE BULGES
NORTHWARD TILTING FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE TO USHER IN COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND OVER RUNNING TO SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE TYPE POPS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IS STILL A MESS AS FAR
AS CONSISTENCY GOES. THE ECMWF IS BACK TO HOLDING COLD AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS RIDGING...THOUGH IT IS THERE IS SOME FORM...AND BLASTS
A ZONAL PACIFIC JET THROUGH BRINGING A WARMING DOWNSLOPE WIND
PATTERN TO THE AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS A BIG DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS MEMBERS WITH MAX TEMPERATURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OF 7 OR HIGHER FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MOS ENSEMBLE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FOR BILLINGS IS FROM 46 TO 13 ON
SUNDAY...45 TO 18 ON MONDAY AND 53 TO 16 ON TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THESE RANGES. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THESE RANGES. THUS
WILL CONTINUE WITH CLIMO TYPE POPS AND NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.
CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE NE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KLVM SE TO KSHR.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AS
WELL. W TO SW SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES OVER
KLVM. ARTHUR


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 041/054 029/045 029/047 027/033 017/031 019/035
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/B    04/S    33/S    33/S
LVM 064 038/052 027/046 029/046 023/034 016/032 020/039
    0/N 33/W    00/B    01/B    14/S    33/S    44/S
HDN 056 034/050 024/044 025/044 024/032 014/030 016/034
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/B    04/S    32/S    33/S
MLS 057 035/046 026/042 026/043 024/029 014/025 012/030
    0/U 00/N    00/B    00/U    23/S    22/S    22/S
4BQ 062 034/050 025/044 026/045 025/033 014/030 013/033
    0/U 01/E    00/B    00/B    04/S    32/S    22/S
BHK 056 033/045 025/039 025/042 023/026 011/024 009/026
    0/U 01/N    11/B    00/B    23/S    22/S    22/S
SHR 062 031/049 021/042 022/044 021/033 013/032 014/036
    0/U 34/W    00/U    00/B    14/S    32/S    33/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271611
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
911 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST. MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME RECORD
OR NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN. WEAK SUB-TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE UNDERCUTTING RIDGE STILL ON TARGET TO BRING SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY TWO THINGS...MIXING WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND ANY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS HAS GIVEN TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
THAT WILL AGAIN BE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WYOMING TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THUS MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE RICH AND
COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER TOMORROW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL INCREASE...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING 30 TO 40 MPH MAINLY
ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.

REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME COMING TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD. WEAKER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PUSH SOME DIFFUSE ENERGY AND PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA WHILE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE MID 40S. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WEST COAST RIDGE BULGES
NORTHWARD TILTING FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE TO USHER IN COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND OVER RUNNING TO SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE TYPE POPS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IS STILL A MESS AS FAR
AS CONSISTENCY GOES. THE ECMWF IS BACK TO HOLDING COLD AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS RIDGING...THOUGH IT IS THERE IS SOME FORM...AND BLASTS
A ZONAL PACIFIC JET THROUGH BRINGING A WARMING DOWNSLOPE WIND
PATTERN TO THE AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS A BIG DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS MEMBERS WITH MAX TEMPERATURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OF 7 OR HIGHER FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MOS ENSEMBLE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FOR BILLINGS IS FROM 46 TO 13 ON
SUNDAY...45 TO 18 ON MONDAY AND 53 TO 16 ON TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THESE RANGES. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THESE RANGES. THUS
WILL CONTINUE WITH CLIMO TYPE POPS AND NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.
CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE NE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KLVM SE TO KSHR.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AS
WELL. W TO SW SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES OVER
KLVM. ARTHUR


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 041/054 029/045 029/047 027/033 017/031 019/035
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/B    04/S    33/S    33/S
LVM 064 038/052 027/046 029/046 023/034 016/032 020/039
    0/N 33/W    00/B    01/B    14/S    33/S    44/S
HDN 056 034/050 024/044 025/044 024/032 014/030 016/034
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/B    04/S    32/S    33/S
MLS 057 035/046 026/042 026/043 024/029 014/025 012/030
    0/U 00/N    00/B    00/U    23/S    22/S    22/S
4BQ 062 034/050 025/044 026/045 025/033 014/030 013/033
    0/U 01/E    00/B    00/B    04/S    32/S    22/S
BHK 056 033/045 025/039 025/042 023/026 011/024 009/026
    0/U 01/N    11/B    00/B    23/S    22/S    22/S
SHR 062 031/049 021/042 022/044 021/033 013/032 014/036
    0/U 34/W    00/U    00/B    14/S    32/S    33/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271018
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
318 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY TWO THINGS...MIXING WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND ANY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS HAS GIVEN TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
THAT WILL AGAIN BE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WYOMING TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THUS MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE RICH AND
COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER TOMORROW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL INCREASE...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING 30 TO 40 MPH MAINLY
ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.

REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME COMING TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD. WEAKER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PUSH SOME DIFFUSE ENERGY AND PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA WHILE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE MID 40S. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WEST COAST RIDGE BULGES
NORTHWARD TILTING FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE TO USHER IN COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND OVER RUNNING TO SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE TYPE POPS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IS STILL A MESS AS FAR
AS CONSISTENCY GOES. THE ECMWF IS BACK TO HOLDING COLD AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS RIDGING...THOUGH IT IS THERE IS SOME FORM...AND BLASTS
A ZONAL PACIFIC JET THROUGH BRINGING A WARMING DOWNSLOPE WIND
PATTERN TO THE AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS A BIG DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS MEMBERS WITH MAX TEMPERATURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OF 7 OR HIGHER FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MOS ENSEMBLE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FOR BILLINGS IS FROM 46 TO 13 ON
SUNDAY...45 TO 18 ON MONDAY AND 53 TO 16 ON TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THESE RANGES. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THESE RANGES. THUS
WILL CONTINUE WITH CLIMO TYPE POPS AND NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.
CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 35KTS AT TIMES. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 041/054 029/045 029/047 027/033 017/031 019/035
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/B    04/S    33/S    33/S
LVM 062 038/052 027/046 029/046 023/034 016/032 020/039
    0/N 33/W    00/B    01/B    14/S    33/S    44/S
HDN 055 034/050 024/044 025/044 024/032 014/030 016/034
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/B    04/S    32/S    33/S
MLS 055 035/046 026/042 026/043 024/029 014/025 012/030
    0/U 00/N    00/B    00/U    23/S    22/S    22/S
4BQ 059 034/050 025/044 026/045 025/033 014/030 013/033
    0/U 01/E    00/B    00/B    04/S    32/S    22/S
BHK 056 033/045 025/039 025/042 023/026 011/024 009/026
    0/U 01/N    11/B    00/B    23/S    22/S    22/S
SHR 061 031/049 021/042 022/044 021/033 013/032 014/036
    0/U 34/W    00/U    00/B    14/S    32/S    33/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271018
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
318 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY TWO THINGS...MIXING WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND ANY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS HAS GIVEN TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
THAT WILL AGAIN BE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WYOMING TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THUS MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE RICH AND
COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER TOMORROW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL INCREASE...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING 30 TO 40 MPH MAINLY
ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.

REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME COMING TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD. WEAKER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PUSH SOME DIFFUSE ENERGY AND PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA WHILE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE MID 40S. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WEST COAST RIDGE BULGES
NORTHWARD TILTING FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE TO USHER IN COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND OVER RUNNING TO SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE TYPE POPS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IS STILL A MESS AS FAR
AS CONSISTENCY GOES. THE ECMWF IS BACK TO HOLDING COLD AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS RIDGING...THOUGH IT IS THERE IS SOME FORM...AND BLASTS
A ZONAL PACIFIC JET THROUGH BRINGING A WARMING DOWNSLOPE WIND
PATTERN TO THE AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS A BIG DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS MEMBERS WITH MAX TEMPERATURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OF 7 OR HIGHER FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MOS ENSEMBLE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FOR BILLINGS IS FROM 46 TO 13 ON
SUNDAY...45 TO 18 ON MONDAY AND 53 TO 16 ON TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THESE RANGES. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THESE RANGES. THUS
WILL CONTINUE WITH CLIMO TYPE POPS AND NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.
CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 35KTS AT TIMES. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 041/054 029/045 029/047 027/033 017/031 019/035
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/B    04/S    33/S    33/S
LVM 062 038/052 027/046 029/046 023/034 016/032 020/039
    0/N 33/W    00/B    01/B    14/S    33/S    44/S
HDN 055 034/050 024/044 025/044 024/032 014/030 016/034
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/B    04/S    32/S    33/S
MLS 055 035/046 026/042 026/043 024/029 014/025 012/030
    0/U 00/N    00/B    00/U    23/S    22/S    22/S
4BQ 059 034/050 025/044 026/045 025/033 014/030 013/033
    0/U 01/E    00/B    00/B    04/S    32/S    22/S
BHK 056 033/045 025/039 025/042 023/026 011/024 009/026
    0/U 01/N    11/B    00/B    23/S    22/S    22/S
SHR 061 031/049 021/042 022/044 021/033 013/032 014/036
    0/U 34/W    00/U    00/B    14/S    32/S    33/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270322
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
822 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN
IDAHO...LEAVING WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD NIGHT. WEAK GAP FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AT LIVINGSTON...BUT
NOTHING ON THE ORDER OF ADVISORY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND THUS MADE NO CHANGES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER AND LESS
WIDESPREAD MIXING. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS QUITE MILD COMPARED
TO NORMALS AND REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW. SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
MILD DAY TOMORROW...AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY FOR MANY
AREAS RECORD HIGHS MAY BE PRESSED AGAIN. WE DO HAVE SOME MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE WESTERN STATES FROM THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SW MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
ZONES TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. I DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS ITS SUB-
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY BRIEF. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...WITH TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY UPPER 30S AND 40S...COOLEST NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND. FIRST OF TWO CLIPPERS IN A
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY BY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE BUT 12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH THE FORCING. MODELS ARE EVEN
MORE SPREAD BY SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE INFLUENCE FROM
RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER PACIFIC JET INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET/CANADIAN
KEEP HIGHER HEIGHTS EXTENDED INTO NW CANADA AND COLDER NW FLOW
OVER US...SUGGESTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS. EXAMINATION OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS A SPLIT
BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THRU SUNDAY/MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER AS CANADIAN SFC
RIDGE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME WARMING AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY MONDAY...BUT AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY BY DAY 8...AS SHOWN BY THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
GUSTY SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT 25-35
KT GUSTS AT KLVM. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 040/054 029/046 029/047 026/037 024/038 026/042
    00/U    11/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/W
LVM 042/063 038/052 027/047 029/045 025/040 025/042 028/044
    00/N    32/W    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/W
HDN 032/056 033/049 024/044 025/045 021/035 018/037 021/040
    00/U    01/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
MLS 033/056 034/045 025/042 026/042 020/031 018/032 019/036
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
4BQ 033/059 033/049 025/044 026/044 022/034 019/037 022/039
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
BHK 032/056 033/044 025/038 024/039 018/028 015/029 015/031
    00/U    01/B    10/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
SHR 032/063 030/048 021/043 021/044 020/036 016/037 020/040
    00/U    12/W    00/B    01/U    22/S    22/S    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270322
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
822 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN
IDAHO...LEAVING WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD NIGHT. WEAK GAP FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AT LIVINGSTON...BUT
NOTHING ON THE ORDER OF ADVISORY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND THUS MADE NO CHANGES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER AND LESS
WIDESPREAD MIXING. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS QUITE MILD COMPARED
TO NORMALS AND REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW. SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
MILD DAY TOMORROW...AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY FOR MANY
AREAS RECORD HIGHS MAY BE PRESSED AGAIN. WE DO HAVE SOME MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE WESTERN STATES FROM THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SW MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
ZONES TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. I DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS ITS SUB-
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY BRIEF. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...WITH TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY UPPER 30S AND 40S...COOLEST NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND. FIRST OF TWO CLIPPERS IN A
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY BY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE BUT 12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH THE FORCING. MODELS ARE EVEN
MORE SPREAD BY SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE INFLUENCE FROM
RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER PACIFIC JET INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET/CANADIAN
KEEP HIGHER HEIGHTS EXTENDED INTO NW CANADA AND COLDER NW FLOW
OVER US...SUGGESTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS. EXAMINATION OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS A SPLIT
BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THRU SUNDAY/MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER AS CANADIAN SFC
RIDGE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME WARMING AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY MONDAY...BUT AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY BY DAY 8...AS SHOWN BY THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
GUSTY SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT 25-35
KT GUSTS AT KLVM. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 040/054 029/046 029/047 026/037 024/038 026/042
    00/U    11/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/W
LVM 042/063 038/052 027/047 029/045 025/040 025/042 028/044
    00/N    32/W    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/W
HDN 032/056 033/049 024/044 025/045 021/035 018/037 021/040
    00/U    01/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
MLS 033/056 034/045 025/042 026/042 020/031 018/032 019/036
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
4BQ 033/059 033/049 025/044 026/044 022/034 019/037 022/039
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
BHK 032/056 033/044 025/038 024/039 018/028 015/029 015/031
    00/U    01/B    10/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
SHR 032/063 030/048 021/043 021/044 020/036 016/037 020/040
    00/U    12/W    00/B    01/U    22/S    22/S    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270322
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
822 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN
IDAHO...LEAVING WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD NIGHT. WEAK GAP FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AT LIVINGSTON...BUT
NOTHING ON THE ORDER OF ADVISORY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND THUS MADE NO CHANGES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER AND LESS
WIDESPREAD MIXING. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS QUITE MILD COMPARED
TO NORMALS AND REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW. SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
MILD DAY TOMORROW...AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY FOR MANY
AREAS RECORD HIGHS MAY BE PRESSED AGAIN. WE DO HAVE SOME MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE WESTERN STATES FROM THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SW MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
ZONES TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. I DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS ITS SUB-
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY BRIEF. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...WITH TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY UPPER 30S AND 40S...COOLEST NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND. FIRST OF TWO CLIPPERS IN A
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY BY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE BUT 12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH THE FORCING. MODELS ARE EVEN
MORE SPREAD BY SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE INFLUENCE FROM
RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER PACIFIC JET INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET/CANADIAN
KEEP HIGHER HEIGHTS EXTENDED INTO NW CANADA AND COLDER NW FLOW
OVER US...SUGGESTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS. EXAMINATION OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS A SPLIT
BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THRU SUNDAY/MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER AS CANADIAN SFC
RIDGE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME WARMING AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY MONDAY...BUT AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY BY DAY 8...AS SHOWN BY THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
GUSTY SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT 25-35
KT GUSTS AT KLVM. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 040/054 029/046 029/047 026/037 024/038 026/042
    00/U    11/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/W
LVM 042/063 038/052 027/047 029/045 025/040 025/042 028/044
    00/N    32/W    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/W
HDN 032/056 033/049 024/044 025/045 021/035 018/037 021/040
    00/U    01/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
MLS 033/056 034/045 025/042 026/042 020/031 018/032 019/036
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
4BQ 033/059 033/049 025/044 026/044 022/034 019/037 022/039
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
BHK 032/056 033/044 025/038 024/039 018/028 015/029 015/031
    00/U    01/B    10/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
SHR 032/063 030/048 021/043 021/044 020/036 016/037 020/040
    00/U    12/W    00/B    01/U    22/S    22/S    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270322
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
822 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN
IDAHO...LEAVING WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD NIGHT. WEAK GAP FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AT LIVINGSTON...BUT
NOTHING ON THE ORDER OF ADVISORY LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AND THUS MADE NO CHANGES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER AND LESS
WIDESPREAD MIXING. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS QUITE MILD COMPARED
TO NORMALS AND REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW. SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
MILD DAY TOMORROW...AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY FOR MANY
AREAS RECORD HIGHS MAY BE PRESSED AGAIN. WE DO HAVE SOME MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE WESTERN STATES FROM THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SW MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
ZONES TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. I DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS ITS SUB-
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY BRIEF. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...WITH TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY UPPER 30S AND 40S...COOLEST NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND. FIRST OF TWO CLIPPERS IN A
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY BY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE BUT 12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH THE FORCING. MODELS ARE EVEN
MORE SPREAD BY SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE INFLUENCE FROM
RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER PACIFIC JET INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET/CANADIAN
KEEP HIGHER HEIGHTS EXTENDED INTO NW CANADA AND COLDER NW FLOW
OVER US...SUGGESTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS. EXAMINATION OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS A SPLIT
BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THRU SUNDAY/MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER AS CANADIAN SFC
RIDGE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME WARMING AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY MONDAY...BUT AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY BY DAY 8...AS SHOWN BY THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
GUSTY SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT 25-35
KT GUSTS AT KLVM. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 040/054 029/046 029/047 026/037 024/038 026/042
    00/U    11/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/W
LVM 042/063 038/052 027/047 029/045 025/040 025/042 028/044
    00/N    32/W    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/W
HDN 032/056 033/049 024/044 025/045 021/035 018/037 021/040
    00/U    01/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
MLS 033/056 034/045 025/042 026/042 020/031 018/032 019/036
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
4BQ 033/059 033/049 025/044 026/044 022/034 019/037 022/039
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
BHK 032/056 033/044 025/038 024/039 018/028 015/029 015/031
    00/U    01/B    10/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
SHR 032/063 030/048 021/043 021/044 020/036 016/037 020/040
    00/U    12/W    00/B    01/U    22/S    22/S    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262143
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
243 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER AND LESS
WIDESPREAD MIXING. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS QUITE MILD COMPARED
TO NORMALS AND REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW. SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
MILD DAY TOMORROW...AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY FOR MANY
AREAS RECORD HIGHS MAY BE PRESSED AGAIN. WE DO HAVE SOME MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE WESTERN STATES FROM THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SW MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
ZONES TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. I DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS ITS SUB-
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY BRIEF. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...WITH TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY UPPER 30S AND 40S...COOLEST NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND. FIRST OF TWO CLIPPERS IN A
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY BY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE BUT 12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH THE FORCING. MODELS ARE EVEN
MORE SPREAD BY SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE INFLUENCE FROM
RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER PACIFIC JET INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET/CANADIAN
KEEP HIGHER HEIGHTS EXTENDED INTO NW CANADA AND COLDER NW FLOW
OVER US...SUGGESTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS. EXAMINATION OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS A SPLIT
BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THRU SUNDAY/MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER AS CANADIAN SFC
RIDGE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME WARMING AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY MONDAY...BUT AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY BY DAY 8...AS SHOWN BY THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
GUSTY SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT 25-35
KT GUSTS AT KLVM. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 040/054 029/046 029/047 026/037 024/038 026/042
    00/U    11/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/W
LVM 042/063 038/052 027/047 029/045 025/040 025/042 028/044
    00/N    32/W    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/W
HDN 032/056 033/049 024/044 025/045 021/035 018/037 021/040
    00/U    01/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
MLS 033/056 034/045 025/042 026/042 020/031 018/032 019/036
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
4BQ 033/059 033/049 025/044 026/044 022/034 019/037 022/039
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
BHK 032/056 033/044 025/038 024/039 018/028 015/029 015/031
    00/U    01/B    10/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
SHR 032/063 030/048 021/043 021/044 020/036 016/037 020/040
    00/U    12/W    00/B    01/U    22/S    22/S    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262143
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
243 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER AND LESS
WIDESPREAD MIXING. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS QUITE MILD COMPARED
TO NORMALS AND REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW. SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
MILD DAY TOMORROW...AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY FOR MANY
AREAS RECORD HIGHS MAY BE PRESSED AGAIN. WE DO HAVE SOME MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE WESTERN STATES FROM THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SW MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
ZONES TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. I DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS ITS SUB-
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY BRIEF. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...WITH TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY UPPER 30S AND 40S...COOLEST NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND. FIRST OF TWO CLIPPERS IN A
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY BY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE BUT 12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH THE FORCING. MODELS ARE EVEN
MORE SPREAD BY SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE INFLUENCE FROM
RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER PACIFIC JET INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET/CANADIAN
KEEP HIGHER HEIGHTS EXTENDED INTO NW CANADA AND COLDER NW FLOW
OVER US...SUGGESTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS. EXAMINATION OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS A SPLIT
BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THRU SUNDAY/MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER AS CANADIAN SFC
RIDGE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME WARMING AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY MONDAY...BUT AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY BY DAY 8...AS SHOWN BY THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
GUSTY SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT 25-35
KT GUSTS AT KLVM. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 040/054 029/046 029/047 026/037 024/038 026/042
    00/U    11/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/W
LVM 042/063 038/052 027/047 029/045 025/040 025/042 028/044
    00/N    32/W    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/W
HDN 032/056 033/049 024/044 025/045 021/035 018/037 021/040
    00/U    01/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
MLS 033/056 034/045 025/042 026/042 020/031 018/032 019/036
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
4BQ 033/059 033/049 025/044 026/044 022/034 019/037 022/039
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
BHK 032/056 033/044 025/038 024/039 018/028 015/029 015/031
    00/U    01/B    10/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
SHR 032/063 030/048 021/043 021/044 020/036 016/037 020/040
    00/U    12/W    00/B    01/U    22/S    22/S    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261640
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
940 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT THINKING HERE ON THE DAY SHIFT IS WE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY DUE TO CONSIDERABLY LESS MIXING PER BUFKIT. WE
MAY ALSO SEE SOME LEE SIDE CIRRUS NOT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT
SAID...WE HAVE LOW HANGING FRUIT FOR THE RECORD HIGHS AND I WILL
NOT BE LOWERING CURRENT FORECASTS THAT MUCH...SO RECORD HIGHS
STILL LOOK LIKE SLAM DUNKS. WINDS WILL FLIRT OCCASIONALLY WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPS PREVENTING TRUE GAP FLOW AND GRADUALLY DECREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY.
GIVEN HOW MUCH WE OVERACHIEVED WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...HAVE OPTED FOR THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
ALSO...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM LESS THAN 10 DEGREES FROM THE
RECORDS...BOTH LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS WILL SEE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. CURRENT RECORDS ARE 56 FOR LIVINGSTON AND 54
FOR BILLINGS...WHILE THE FORECAST IS 64 DEGREES FOR BOTH. SHERIDAN
WILL ALSO SEE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AROUND 61 DEGREES. THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS TRENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR TUESDAY...SO HAVE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN FOR TUESDAY. THE POSSIBILITY IS THAT WITH
A LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE AND
LIMIT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL
BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN...RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE...AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH WYOMING. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM ONLY GLANCING THE AREA...WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ANY WHERE ELSE. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN DIVERGE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH LATEST ECMWF BRINGING BACK THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE SOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR INTRUSION FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO.

CALIFORNIA SYSTEM CONTINUE ON A TRACK TO GRAZE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
SOME PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THE HEALS OF THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY BRINGING COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A BIT MORE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWN OFF OF RECORD HIGHS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH LOWER TO
MID 40S WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED ENERGY WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER
BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED THAT WOULD SUGGEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SO KEPT DRY FORECAST IN TACT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DIVERGE PAST FRIDAY.
MODELS BOTH DEVELOP AN INITIAL RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
FRIDAY WHICH VEERS THE UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTH AND ALLOWS A
SHORTWAVE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AND
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT. BY MID DAY SATURDAY THE GFS HAS
CRASHED DOWN THE RIDGE AND BEGINS A WARM AND WINDY DOWNSLOPE
PATTERN FOR THE AREA THAT LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS A WEST COAST RIDGE AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO
DROP INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. THIS IS A SOLUTION
THAT WAS ADVERTISED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BUT WHICH WAS OVERTAKEN
BY A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ADDED LOW/CLIMO TYPE POPS IN A BROADBRUSH FASHION FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES TOWARD
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TO GET IN BETWEEN THE WARM/DRY GFS
AND THE COLD/SNOWY EC SOLUTIONS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY SW-W WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT 35-45 KT GUSTS AT KLVM. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 039/064 039/052 029/046 029/047 025/037 025/043
    0/N 00/U    12/W    01/B    10/U    22/O    22/O
LVM 064 041/060 038/049 028/046 029/045 024/040 026/045
    0/N 00/N    32/W    01/B    10/U    22/O    22/O
HDN 056 031/054 033/048 025/044 026/044 021/035 020/042
    0/B 00/U    02/W    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O
MLS 055 031/056 033/043 025/042 026/042 019/031 020/039
    0/B 00/U    01/B    10/B    11/B    22/S    22/S
4BQ 057 031/059 033/047 024/044 025/044 021/034 020/042
    0/B 00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O
BHK 053 030/056 031/042 025/039 024/039 016/028 017/036
    0/B 00/U    01/B    00/B    01/B    22/S    22/S
SHR 060 030/057 030/047 022/042 022/043 020/036 020/042
    0/U 00/U    12/W    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261640
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
940 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT THINKING HERE ON THE DAY SHIFT IS WE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY DUE TO CONSIDERABLY LESS MIXING PER BUFKIT. WE
MAY ALSO SEE SOME LEE SIDE CIRRUS NOT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT
SAID...WE HAVE LOW HANGING FRUIT FOR THE RECORD HIGHS AND I WILL
NOT BE LOWERING CURRENT FORECASTS THAT MUCH...SO RECORD HIGHS
STILL LOOK LIKE SLAM DUNKS. WINDS WILL FLIRT OCCASIONALLY WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPS PREVENTING TRUE GAP FLOW AND GRADUALLY DECREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY.
GIVEN HOW MUCH WE OVERACHIEVED WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...HAVE OPTED FOR THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
ALSO...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM LESS THAN 10 DEGREES FROM THE
RECORDS...BOTH LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS WILL SEE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. CURRENT RECORDS ARE 56 FOR LIVINGSTON AND 54
FOR BILLINGS...WHILE THE FORECAST IS 64 DEGREES FOR BOTH. SHERIDAN
WILL ALSO SEE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AROUND 61 DEGREES. THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS TRENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR TUESDAY...SO HAVE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN FOR TUESDAY. THE POSSIBILITY IS THAT WITH
A LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE AND
LIMIT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL
BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN...RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE...AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH WYOMING. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM ONLY GLANCING THE AREA...WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ANY WHERE ELSE. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN DIVERGE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH LATEST ECMWF BRINGING BACK THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE SOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR INTRUSION FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO.

CALIFORNIA SYSTEM CONTINUE ON A TRACK TO GRAZE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
SOME PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THE HEALS OF THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY BRINGING COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A BIT MORE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWN OFF OF RECORD HIGHS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH LOWER TO
MID 40S WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED ENERGY WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER
BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED THAT WOULD SUGGEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SO KEPT DRY FORECAST IN TACT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DIVERGE PAST FRIDAY.
MODELS BOTH DEVELOP AN INITIAL RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
FRIDAY WHICH VEERS THE UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTH AND ALLOWS A
SHORTWAVE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AND
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT. BY MID DAY SATURDAY THE GFS HAS
CRASHED DOWN THE RIDGE AND BEGINS A WARM AND WINDY DOWNSLOPE
PATTERN FOR THE AREA THAT LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS A WEST COAST RIDGE AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO
DROP INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. THIS IS A SOLUTION
THAT WAS ADVERTISED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BUT WHICH WAS OVERTAKEN
BY A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ADDED LOW/CLIMO TYPE POPS IN A BROADBRUSH FASHION FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES TOWARD
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TO GET IN BETWEEN THE WARM/DRY GFS
AND THE COLD/SNOWY EC SOLUTIONS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY SW-W WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT 35-45 KT GUSTS AT KLVM. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 039/064 039/052 029/046 029/047 025/037 025/043
    0/N 00/U    12/W    01/B    10/U    22/O    22/O
LVM 064 041/060 038/049 028/046 029/045 024/040 026/045
    0/N 00/N    32/W    01/B    10/U    22/O    22/O
HDN 056 031/054 033/048 025/044 026/044 021/035 020/042
    0/B 00/U    02/W    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O
MLS 055 031/056 033/043 025/042 026/042 019/031 020/039
    0/B 00/U    01/B    10/B    11/B    22/S    22/S
4BQ 057 031/059 033/047 024/044 025/044 021/034 020/042
    0/B 00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O
BHK 053 030/056 031/042 025/039 024/039 016/028 017/036
    0/B 00/U    01/B    00/B    01/B    22/S    22/S
SHR 060 030/057 030/047 022/042 022/043 020/036 020/042
    0/U 00/U    12/W    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261022
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
322 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY.
GIVEN HOW MUCH WE OVERACHIEVED WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...HAVE OPTED FOR THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
ALSO...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM LESS THAN 10 DEGREES FROM THE
RECORDS...BOTH LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS WILL SEE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. CURRENT RECORDS ARE 56 FOR LIVINGSTON AND 54
FOR BILLINGS...WHILE THE FORECAST IS 64 DEGREES FOR BOTH. SHERIDAN
WILL ALSO SEE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AROUND 61 DEGREES. THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS TRENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR TUESDAY...SO HAVE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN FOR TUESDAY. THE POSSIBILITY IS THAT WITH
A LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE AND
LIMIT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL
BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN...RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE...AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH WYOMING. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM ONLY GLANCING THE AREA...WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ANY WHERE ELSE. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN DIVERGE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH LATEST ECMWF BRINGING BACK THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE SOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR INTRUSION FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO.

CALIFORNIA SYSTEM CONTINUE ON A TRACK TO GRAZE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
SOME PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THE HEALS OF THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY BRINGING COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A BIT MORE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWN OFF OF RECORD HIGHS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH LOWER TO
MID 40S WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED ENERGY WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER
BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED THAT WOULD SUGGEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SO KEPT DRY FORECAST IN TACT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DIVERGE PAST FRIDAY.
MODELS BOTH DEVELOP AN INITIAL RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
FRIDAY WHICH VEERS THE UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTH AND ALLOWS A
SHORTWAVE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AND
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT. BY MID DAY SATURDAY THE GFS HAS
CRASHED DOWN THE RIDGE AND BEGINS A WARM AND WINDY DOWNSLOPE
PATTERN FOR THE AREA THAT LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS A WEST COAST RIDGE AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO
DROP INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. THIS IS A SOLUTION
THAT WAS ADVERTISED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BUT WHICH WAS OVERTAKEN
BY A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ADDED LOW/CLIMO TYPE POPS IN A BROADBRUSH FASHION FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES TOWARD
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TO GET IN BETWEEN THE WARM/DRY GFS
AND THE COLD/SNOWY EC SOLUTIONS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH
GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 45KTS IN THE LIVINGSTON AND WESTERN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 039/064 039/052 029/046 029/047 025/037 025/043
    0/N 00/U    12/W    01/B    10/U    22/O    22/O
LVM 064 041/060 038/049 028/046 029/045 024/040 026/045
    0/N 00/N    32/W    01/B    10/U    22/O    22/O
HDN 056 031/054 033/048 025/044 026/044 021/035 020/042
    0/B 00/U    02/W    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O
MLS 053 031/056 033/043 025/042 026/042 019/031 020/039
    0/B 00/U    01/B    10/B    11/B    22/S    22/S
4BQ 058 031/059 033/047 024/044 025/044 021/034 020/042
    0/B 00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O
BHK 052 030/056 031/042 025/039 024/039 016/028 017/036
    0/B 00/U    01/B    00/B    01/B    22/S    22/S
SHR 061 030/057 030/047 022/042 022/043 020/036 020/042
    0/U 00/U    12/W    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260404
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
904 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS IN WHAT TO DO WITH THE
EXISTING ADVISORY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS. WINDS HAVE
BEEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL EVENING...BUT HAVE EDGED UP THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IDAHO
FALL AND LEWISTOWN WAS DECREASING A BIT. SURFACE PRESSURE
TENDENCIES WERE FOR RISES OVER MONTANA WITH A SMALL SURGE IN FALLS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. 00Z GFS PROJECTED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
INTO NORTHERN IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND THESE FALLS WERE NOT PROJECTED
TO BET THAT DRAMATIC. 700MB WINDS ALSO DECREASE FROM 50KTS TO
40KTS AND BACK SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT
STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THAT SHOULD DRIVE SOME GAP
FLOW...BUT DO NOT SEE TREMENDOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE PARK.
THESE THINGS POINT TO WINDS NOT RAMPING BACK UP INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA THE REST OF THE NIGHT. STILL WILL BE WINDY THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...JUST NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO KICK BACK UP INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL THEREFORE DROP THE ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME AREAS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. RECORD LIKELY TO BE BROKEN MONDAY AT
BILLINGS WHERE OLD RECORD IS 54. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE GREAT BASIN IS BRINGING WARM AIR ALOFT WITH IT
WHICH IS HELPING BOOST THE TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH FLOW THROUGH THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA TO GENERATE LEESIDE TROUGH
BUT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. GAP FLOW AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING OVER
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAINS TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BUT EXPECT WINDS
TO BE DECREASING FOR THESE AREAS MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE EQUALLY
AS WARM AS MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

TWO PARTICULAR ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST TO MENTION. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AM NOT DROPPING THE HIGHLIGHT AT
THIS TIME FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. A BIT BETTER MOMENTUM ALOFT IS
HEADING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP
ACCELERATE WINDS A BIT. ALSO THINK THAT AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET
ANY WEAK UPVALLEY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN LIVINGSTON THAT IS
OFFSETTING CURRENT SPEEDS WILL GO AWAY AND DOWNVALLEY FLOWS WILL
PICK UP. ALSO EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE IN A BRIEF
WINDOW AS SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SHOULD COOL OFF QUICKER THAN THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. SECOND ITEM IS HAVE RAISED BILLINGS
TEMPERATURE TO 60 FOR MONDAY. NORMALLY UNDER THIS PATTERN THIS
TIME OF YEAR FLOWS OUT OF THE BIG HORN BASIN WOULD HAVE A STRONG
COOLING EFFECT ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WHILE PLACES ABOVE THE
VALLEY BOTTOMS WARM BETTER. WHILE GREYBULL IS ONLY 33F TODAY CODY
IS 59F SO SUSPECT THE COLD AIR DRAINAGE DOWN THE CLARKS FORK IS
ERODING FASTER THAN NORMAL BECAUSE BILLINGS HAS OVERACHIEVED ON
FORECAST TEMP THE PAST TWO DAYS. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN ENERGY WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO BUILD THE
RIDGE AGAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GIVING OUR AREA A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS ARE NOW CHANGING
THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND IN PLACING A RIDGE WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURES. A
STRONG PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE BUT STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BRING A STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S
WEDNESDAY...WITH 40S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE BIG TIMBER...KLVM...AND BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS
AREAS. HOOLEY/TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041/062 039/058 039/052 030/046 026/043 026/042 029/046
    00/N    00/U    02/W    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 040/063 039/058 037/050 028/047 025/046 023/044 027/048
    00/N    00/U    12/W    10/B    11/B    11/B    11/N
HDN 032/052 030/052 032/049 024/045 021/042 020/039 021/043
    00/B    00/U    02/W    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 034/051 031/051 034/045 025/043 025/040 020/036 022/041
    00/B    00/U    01/B    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 035/056 032/056 033/049 025/045 024/042 021/040 022/044
    00/B    00/U    01/B    10/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 034/051 031/053 033/043 025/040 024/039 017/032 019/038
    00/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 033/057 031/056 029/047 022/043 018/041 018/040 020/046
    00/U    00/U    02/W    10/U    11/B    11/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 260404
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
904 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS IN WHAT TO DO WITH THE
EXISTING ADVISORY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS. WINDS HAVE
BEEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL EVENING...BUT HAVE EDGED UP THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IDAHO
FALL AND LEWISTOWN WAS DECREASING A BIT. SURFACE PRESSURE
TENDENCIES WERE FOR RISES OVER MONTANA WITH A SMALL SURGE IN FALLS
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. 00Z GFS PROJECTED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
INTO NORTHERN IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND THESE FALLS WERE NOT PROJECTED
TO BET THAT DRAMATIC. 700MB WINDS ALSO DECREASE FROM 50KTS TO
40KTS AND BACK SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT
STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THAT SHOULD DRIVE SOME GAP
FLOW...BUT DO NOT SEE TREMENDOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE PARK.
THESE THINGS POINT TO WINDS NOT RAMPING BACK UP INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA THE REST OF THE NIGHT. STILL WILL BE WINDY THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...JUST NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO KICK BACK UP INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL THEREFORE DROP THE ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME AREAS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. RECORD LIKELY TO BE BROKEN MONDAY AT
BILLINGS WHERE OLD RECORD IS 54. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE GREAT BASIN IS BRINGING WARM AIR ALOFT WITH IT
WHICH IS HELPING BOOST THE TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH FLOW THROUGH THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA TO GENERATE LEESIDE TROUGH
BUT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. GAP FLOW AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING OVER
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAINS TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BUT EXPECT WINDS
TO BE DECREASING FOR THESE AREAS MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE EQUALLY
AS WARM AS MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

TWO PARTICULAR ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST TO MENTION. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AM NOT DROPPING THE HIGHLIGHT AT
THIS TIME FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. A BIT BETTER MOMENTUM ALOFT IS
HEADING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP
ACCELERATE WINDS A BIT. ALSO THINK THAT AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET
ANY WEAK UPVALLEY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN LIVINGSTON THAT IS
OFFSETTING CURRENT SPEEDS WILL GO AWAY AND DOWNVALLEY FLOWS WILL
PICK UP. ALSO EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE IN A BRIEF
WINDOW AS SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SHOULD COOL OFF QUICKER THAN THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. SECOND ITEM IS HAVE RAISED BILLINGS
TEMPERATURE TO 60 FOR MONDAY. NORMALLY UNDER THIS PATTERN THIS
TIME OF YEAR FLOWS OUT OF THE BIG HORN BASIN WOULD HAVE A STRONG
COOLING EFFECT ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WHILE PLACES ABOVE THE
VALLEY BOTTOMS WARM BETTER. WHILE GREYBULL IS ONLY 33F TODAY CODY
IS 59F SO SUSPECT THE COLD AIR DRAINAGE DOWN THE CLARKS FORK IS
ERODING FASTER THAN NORMAL BECAUSE BILLINGS HAS OVERACHIEVED ON
FORECAST TEMP THE PAST TWO DAYS. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN ENERGY WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO BUILD THE
RIDGE AGAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GIVING OUR AREA A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS ARE NOW CHANGING
THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND IN PLACING A RIDGE WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURES. A
STRONG PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE BUT STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BRING A STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S
WEDNESDAY...WITH 40S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE BIG TIMBER...KLVM...AND BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS
AREAS. HOOLEY/TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041/062 039/058 039/052 030/046 026/043 026/042 029/046
    00/N    00/U    02/W    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 040/063 039/058 037/050 028/047 025/046 023/044 027/048
    00/N    00/U    12/W    10/B    11/B    11/B    11/N
HDN 032/052 030/052 032/049 024/045 021/042 020/039 021/043
    00/B    00/U    02/W    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 034/051 031/051 034/045 025/043 025/040 020/036 022/041
    00/B    00/U    01/B    11/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 035/056 032/056 033/049 025/045 024/042 021/040 022/044
    00/B    00/U    01/B    10/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 034/051 031/053 033/043 025/040 024/039 017/032 019/038
    00/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 033/057 031/056 029/047 022/043 018/041 018/040 020/046
    00/U    00/U    02/W    10/U    11/B    11/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





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