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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 052134
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
234 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

A WINDY WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WHILE
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND UPPER
STILLWATER VALLEYS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THOSE AREAS. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A TWO PART WIND EVENT FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AREA AS TYPCIAL GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
PACIFIC FRONT. THE GAP WINDS WILL END SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIMES RANGING FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. 850MB AND 700MB WINDS
RANGE IN THE 50-55KTS AND ARE LINKED NICELY ACROSS A LARGE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCATIONS OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME. THE ONE DOWNSIDE TO A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT ARE
PRESSURE RISES. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST MOTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND OUR NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE STRONG AROUND 7C/KM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH EVEN STEEPER RATES 7.5-8C/KM
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT LIFT BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE UP TO 700MB. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A HIGH WIND GUST ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
WIDE-SPREAD WIND EVENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH AND LET LATER SHIFTS GET A COUPLE
MORE MODEL RUNS ON THE SITUATION.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START ACROSS OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST INTO OUR CENTRAL
LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST FROM
CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK
TO BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. AS FOR
PRECIP...WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THESE MAY HELP TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE WINDS
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN US. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS
SETUP TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARING 60
DEGREES TUESDAY WITH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON MON...WED...AND
THURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW CAUSE INTERMITTENT PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
YELLOWSTONE PARK THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE YELLOWSTONE PARK AND GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE DIVIDE. WITH THIS IN MIND THOSE WEST OF BILLINGS CAN EXPECT A
FEW BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND WINDY NIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN
PLACES LIKE LIVINGSTON...NYE...AND EXTENDING NORTH TO HARLOWTON.
NEXT WEEK SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A FAIRLY WELL
ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND VFR WILL DOMINATE THE TAF. WINDS BEGIN THEIR
INCREASE TONIGHT AT KLVM WITH 40 TO 50KT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY 06Z.
FURTHER INCREASES TO 55 KTS POSSIBLE BY 12-15Z TOMORROW. FURTHER
EAST...WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS AT KBIL AND KMLS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS REACHING KMLS
CLOSER TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND KBIL STARTING EARLIER IN THE
DAY. DOBBS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/048 028/043 027/052 037/059 036/055 034/052 031/048
    01/N    10/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/B    12/W
LVM 034/044 027/040 029/049 039/056 037/053 035/049 031/046
    12/W    11/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    12/W
HDN 025/048 026/044 022/050 033/058 032/055 031/050 028/046
    01/N    10/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/W
MLS 029/050 026/040 021/046 030/054 030/052 027/046 025/041
    01/N    20/N    01/B    00/B    10/U    01/M    11/B
4BQ 025/049 027/039 023/045 031/056 031/054 029/047 024/044
    01/N    20/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    01/B    11/B
BHK 026/048 025/037 018/041 028/049 027/048 024/041 024/038
    01/N    32/J    01/B    11/B    10/U    11/M    21/E
SHR 019/048 026/038 020/049 030/057 030/055 028/049 026/046
    01/B    21/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-39-41-42-56>58-63.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 052108
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
208 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

A WINDY WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WHILE
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND UPPER
STILLWATER VALLEYS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THOSE AREAS. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A TWO PART WIND EVENT FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AREA AS TYPICAL GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
PACIFIC FRONT. THE GAP WINDS WILL END SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIMES RANGING FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. 850MB AND 700MB WINDS
RANGE IN THE 50-55KTS AND ARE LINKED NICELY ACROSS A LARGE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCATIONS OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME. THE ONE DOWNSIDE TO A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT ARE
PRESSURE RISES. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND OUR NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE STRONG AROUND 7C/KM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH EVEN STEEPER RATES 7.5-8C/KM
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT LIFT BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE UP TO 700MB. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A HIGH WIND GUST ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
WIDE-SPREAD WIND EVENT. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH
WIND WATCH AND LET LATER SHIFTS GET A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS ON
THE SITUATION.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START ACROSS OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST INTO OUR CENTRAL
LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST FROM
CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK
TO BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. AS FOR
PRECIP...WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THESE MAY HELP TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE WINDS
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN US. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS
SETUP TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARING 60
DEGREES TUESDAY WITH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON MON...WED...AND
THURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW CAUSE INTERMITTENT PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
YELLOWSTONE PARK THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE YELLOWSTONE PARK AND GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE DIVIDE. WITH THIS IN MIND THOSE WEST OF BILLINGS CAN EXPECT A
FEW BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND WINDY NIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN
PLACES LIKE LIVINGSTON...NYE...AND EXTENDING NORTH TO HARLOWTON.
NEXT WEEK SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A FAIRLY WELL
ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE WEST AT KBIL AND KLVM WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 KT. GUSTS
INCREASE TO 50 KT IN THE KLVM AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THESE GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SAT MORNING...EXPECT
GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KT AT KLVM. EXPECTING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
KMLS TONIGHT. ARTHUR/DOBBS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/048 028/043 027/052 037/059 036/055 034/052 031/048
    01/N    10/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/B    12/W
LVM 034/044 027/040 029/049 039/056 037/053 035/049 031/046
    12/W    11/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    12/W
HDN 025/048 026/044 022/050 033/058 032/055 031/050 028/046
    01/N    10/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/W
MLS 029/050 026/040 021/046 030/054 030/052 027/046 025/041
    01/N    20/N    01/B    00/B    10/U    01/M    11/B
4BQ 025/049 027/039 023/045 031/056 031/054 029/047 024/044
    01/N    20/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    01/B    11/B
BHK 026/048 025/037 018/041 028/049 027/048 024/041 024/038
    01/N    32/J    01/B    11/B    10/U    11/M    21/E
SHR 019/048 026/038 020/049 030/057 030/055 028/049 026/046
    01/B    21/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-39-41-42-56>58-63.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 052108
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
208 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

A WINDY WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WHILE
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND UPPER
STILLWATER VALLEYS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THOSE AREAS. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A TWO PART WIND EVENT FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AREA AS TYPICAL GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
PACIFIC FRONT. THE GAP WINDS WILL END SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIMES RANGING FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. 850MB AND 700MB WINDS
RANGE IN THE 50-55KTS AND ARE LINKED NICELY ACROSS A LARGE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCATIONS OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME. THE ONE DOWNSIDE TO A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT ARE
PRESSURE RISES. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND OUR NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE STRONG AROUND 7C/KM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH EVEN STEEPER RATES 7.5-8C/KM
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT LIFT BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE UP TO 700MB. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A HIGH WIND GUST ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
WIDE-SPREAD WIND EVENT. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH
WIND WATCH AND LET LATER SHIFTS GET A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS ON
THE SITUATION.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START ACROSS OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST INTO OUR CENTRAL
LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST FROM
CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK
TO BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. AS FOR
PRECIP...WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THESE MAY HELP TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE WINDS
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN US. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS
SETUP TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARING 60
DEGREES TUESDAY WITH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON MON...WED...AND
THURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW CAUSE INTERMITTENT PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
YELLOWSTONE PARK THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE YELLOWSTONE PARK AND GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE DIVIDE. WITH THIS IN MIND THOSE WEST OF BILLINGS CAN EXPECT A
FEW BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND WINDY NIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN
PLACES LIKE LIVINGSTON...NYE...AND EXTENDING NORTH TO HARLOWTON.
NEXT WEEK SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A FAIRLY WELL
ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE WEST AT KBIL AND KLVM WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 KT. GUSTS
INCREASE TO 50 KT IN THE KLVM AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THESE GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SAT MORNING...EXPECT
GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KT AT KLVM. EXPECTING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
KMLS TONIGHT. ARTHUR/DOBBS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/048 028/043 027/052 037/059 036/055 034/052 031/048
    01/N    10/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/B    12/W
LVM 034/044 027/040 029/049 039/056 037/053 035/049 031/046
    12/W    11/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    12/W
HDN 025/048 026/044 022/050 033/058 032/055 031/050 028/046
    01/N    10/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/W
MLS 029/050 026/040 021/046 030/054 030/052 027/046 025/041
    01/N    20/N    01/B    00/B    10/U    01/M    11/B
4BQ 025/049 027/039 023/045 031/056 031/054 029/047 024/044
    01/N    20/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    01/B    11/B
BHK 026/048 025/037 018/041 028/049 027/048 024/041 024/038
    01/N    32/J    01/B    11/B    10/U    11/M    21/E
SHR 019/048 026/038 020/049 030/057 030/055 028/049 026/046
    01/B    21/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-39-41-42-56>58-63.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 052108
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
208 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

A WINDY WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WHILE
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND UPPER
STILLWATER VALLEYS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THOSE AREAS. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A TWO PART WIND EVENT FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AREA AS TYPICAL GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
PACIFIC FRONT. THE GAP WINDS WILL END SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIMES RANGING FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. 850MB AND 700MB WINDS
RANGE IN THE 50-55KTS AND ARE LINKED NICELY ACROSS A LARGE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCATIONS OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME. THE ONE DOWNSIDE TO A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT ARE
PRESSURE RISES. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND OUR NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE STRONG AROUND 7C/KM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH EVEN STEEPER RATES 7.5-8C/KM
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT LIFT BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE UP TO 700MB. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A HIGH WIND GUST ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
WIDE-SPREAD WIND EVENT. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH
WIND WATCH AND LET LATER SHIFTS GET A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS ON
THE SITUATION.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START ACROSS OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST INTO OUR CENTRAL
LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST FROM
CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK
TO BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. AS FOR
PRECIP...WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THESE MAY HELP TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE WINDS
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN US. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS
SETUP TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARING 60
DEGREES TUESDAY WITH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON MON...WED...AND
THURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW CAUSE INTERMITTENT PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
YELLOWSTONE PARK THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE YELLOWSTONE PARK AND GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE DIVIDE. WITH THIS IN MIND THOSE WEST OF BILLINGS CAN EXPECT A
FEW BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND WINDY NIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN
PLACES LIKE LIVINGSTON...NYE...AND EXTENDING NORTH TO HARLOWTON.
NEXT WEEK SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A FAIRLY WELL
ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE WEST AT KBIL AND KLVM WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 KT. GUSTS
INCREASE TO 50 KT IN THE KLVM AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THESE GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SAT MORNING...EXPECT
GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KT AT KLVM. EXPECTING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
KMLS TONIGHT. ARTHUR/DOBBS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/048 028/043 027/052 037/059 036/055 034/052 031/048
    01/N    10/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/B    12/W
LVM 034/044 027/040 029/049 039/056 037/053 035/049 031/046
    12/W    11/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    12/W
HDN 025/048 026/044 022/050 033/058 032/055 031/050 028/046
    01/N    10/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/W
MLS 029/050 026/040 021/046 030/054 030/052 027/046 025/041
    01/N    20/N    01/B    00/B    10/U    01/M    11/B
4BQ 025/049 027/039 023/045 031/056 031/054 029/047 024/044
    01/N    20/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    01/B    11/B
BHK 026/048 025/037 018/041 028/049 027/048 024/041 024/038
    01/N    32/J    01/B    11/B    10/U    11/M    21/E
SHR 019/048 026/038 020/049 030/057 030/055 028/049 026/046
    01/B    21/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-39-41-42-56>58-63.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 051604
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
904 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

QUIET DAY IN STORE TODAY BEFORE A WINDY PERIOD BEGINS THIS
EVENING CONTINUING FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE
SHOWING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO
THE LIVINGSTON AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 5PM TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL BLAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WEST THEN
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PREVIOUS
SHIFT ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE
WAITING FOR NEW MODEL DATA TO COME IN THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE
THESE WIND HIGHLIGHTS. ONLY UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
EARLIER TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME INTENSE...ALBEIT BRIEF...SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ZONES AND DOWN INTO SHERIDAN. SOME
ROADS PICKED UP A QUICK INCH OF SNOW INCLUDING I-90 IN THE
SHERIDAN AREA. MOST OF THIS IS NOW DISSIPATING. RIDGING AT 500MB
WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. WE WILL SE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES AGAIN BY AFTERNOON AND PUSH US INTO THE 40S
FOR MANY AREAS.

WIND IS THE WORD AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENHANCED WINDS IN OUR GAP FLOW AREAS
BY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BY
8 PM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS PACIFIC FRONT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND THE
WINDS BECOME LESS GAP DRIVEN AND MORE DRIVEN BY MIX DOWN...AND DO
NOT DECREASE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR OUR GAP FLOW LOCATIONS FROM
LIVINGSTON TO NEAR NYE.

THE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT SATURDAY LOOKS
RATHER FORMIDABLE FOR THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
LATEST PROGS ARE SHOWING MAX WINDS UP TO 70 KTS AT 700 MB BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUMP TO OVER 7C/KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW VERY STRONG GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CARRY THIS THREAT FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME IS NOT USUALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THERE IS SOME LIFT AS TROUGH
COMES THROUGH NEGATING COLD AIR ADVECTION EFFECTS...MIXING ON
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN OUTLIER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND FRONT. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
ROSEBUD COUNTY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY. WE ARE GIVING
WIDE BERTH DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING...AND FEEL
LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THIS SHOULD AN UPGRADE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING BE DEEMED NECESSARY. AT THIS TIME THERE APPEARS
TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS ALONG AND ABOUT TWO HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR
BETTER. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

CONTINUING TO LOOK FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STILL BE DEALING
WITH STRONG WINDS E OF KBIL ON SUN DUE TO A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO
HAD SOME LOW POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS W OF KBIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LEE
TROUGHS FORMING DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR POSSIBLE WIND HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE WEEK. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE WEST AT KBIL AND KLVM WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 KT. GUSTS
INCREASE TO 50 KT IN THE KLVM AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THESE GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SAT MORNING...EXPECT
GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KT AT KLVM. EXPECTING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
KMLS TONIGHT. ARTHUR/DOBBS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 032/048 029/044 029/050 034/055 034/057 035/053
    0/N 01/N    10/N    00/B    00/N    00/N    01/N
LVM 041 031/042 025/039 029/047 035/051 035/050 034/049
    1/N 12/W    11/N    10/B    00/N    00/N    11/N
HDN 045 025/048 026/044 022/047 029/052 028/055 029/051
    0/B 02/W    10/N    01/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 044 030/050 027/042 024/044 030/051 030/051 030/048
    0/B 01/N    11/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
4BQ 042 025/049 027/039 023/042 028/050 028/052 030/049
    0/B 01/N    11/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 040 027/048 025/037 020/038 027/046 027/047 027/042
    0/B 01/N    41/N    01/N    11/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 041 021/048 023/038 022/045 026/053 027/053 027/051
    0/U 01/B    21/N    00/B    10/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-39-41-42-56>58-63.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 051604
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
904 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

QUIET DAY IN STORE TODAY BEFORE A WINDY PERIOD BEGINS THIS
EVENING CONTINUING FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE
SHOWING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO
THE LIVINGSTON AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 5PM TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL BLAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WEST THEN
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PREVIOUS
SHIFT ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE
WAITING FOR NEW MODEL DATA TO COME IN THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE
THESE WIND HIGHLIGHTS. ONLY UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
EARLIER TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME INTENSE...ALBEIT BRIEF...SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ZONES AND DOWN INTO SHERIDAN. SOME
ROADS PICKED UP A QUICK INCH OF SNOW INCLUDING I-90 IN THE
SHERIDAN AREA. MOST OF THIS IS NOW DISSIPATING. RIDGING AT 500MB
WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. WE WILL SE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES AGAIN BY AFTERNOON AND PUSH US INTO THE 40S
FOR MANY AREAS.

WIND IS THE WORD AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENHANCED WINDS IN OUR GAP FLOW AREAS
BY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BY
8 PM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS PACIFIC FRONT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND THE
WINDS BECOME LESS GAP DRIVEN AND MORE DRIVEN BY MIX DOWN...AND DO
NOT DECREASE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR OUR GAP FLOW LOCATIONS FROM
LIVINGSTON TO NEAR NYE.

THE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT SATURDAY LOOKS
RATHER FORMIDABLE FOR THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
LATEST PROGS ARE SHOWING MAX WINDS UP TO 70 KTS AT 700 MB BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUMP TO OVER 7C/KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW VERY STRONG GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CARRY THIS THREAT FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME IS NOT USUALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THERE IS SOME LIFT AS TROUGH
COMES THROUGH NEGATING COLD AIR ADVECTION EFFECTS...MIXING ON
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN OUTLIER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND FRONT. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
ROSEBUD COUNTY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY. WE ARE GIVING
WIDE BERTH DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING...AND FEEL
LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THIS SHOULD AN UPGRADE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING BE DEEMED NECESSARY. AT THIS TIME THERE APPEARS
TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS ALONG AND ABOUT TWO HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR
BETTER. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

CONTINUING TO LOOK FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STILL BE DEALING
WITH STRONG WINDS E OF KBIL ON SUN DUE TO A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO
HAD SOME LOW POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS W OF KBIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LEE
TROUGHS FORMING DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR POSSIBLE WIND HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE WEEK. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE WEST AT KBIL AND KLVM WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 KT. GUSTS
INCREASE TO 50 KT IN THE KLVM AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THESE GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SAT MORNING...EXPECT
GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KT AT KLVM. EXPECTING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
KMLS TONIGHT. ARTHUR/DOBBS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 032/048 029/044 029/050 034/055 034/057 035/053
    0/N 01/N    10/N    00/B    00/N    00/N    01/N
LVM 041 031/042 025/039 029/047 035/051 035/050 034/049
    1/N 12/W    11/N    10/B    00/N    00/N    11/N
HDN 045 025/048 026/044 022/047 029/052 028/055 029/051
    0/B 02/W    10/N    01/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 044 030/050 027/042 024/044 030/051 030/051 030/048
    0/B 01/N    11/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
4BQ 042 025/049 027/039 023/042 028/050 028/052 030/049
    0/B 01/N    11/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 040 027/048 025/037 020/038 027/046 027/047 027/042
    0/B 01/N    41/N    01/N    11/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 041 021/048 023/038 022/045 026/053 027/053 027/051
    0/U 01/B    21/N    00/B    10/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-39-41-42-56>58-63.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 051604
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
904 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

QUIET DAY IN STORE TODAY BEFORE A WINDY PERIOD BEGINS THIS
EVENING CONTINUING FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE
SHOWING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO
THE LIVINGSTON AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 5PM TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL BLAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WEST THEN
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PREVIOUS
SHIFT ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE
WAITING FOR NEW MODEL DATA TO COME IN THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE
THESE WIND HIGHLIGHTS. ONLY UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
EARLIER TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME INTENSE...ALBEIT BRIEF...SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ZONES AND DOWN INTO SHERIDAN. SOME
ROADS PICKED UP A QUICK INCH OF SNOW INCLUDING I-90 IN THE
SHERIDAN AREA. MOST OF THIS IS NOW DISSIPATING. RIDGING AT 500MB
WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. WE WILL SE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES AGAIN BY AFTERNOON AND PUSH US INTO THE 40S
FOR MANY AREAS.

WIND IS THE WORD AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENHANCED WINDS IN OUR GAP FLOW AREAS
BY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BY
8 PM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS PACIFIC FRONT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND THE
WINDS BECOME LESS GAP DRIVEN AND MORE DRIVEN BY MIX DOWN...AND DO
NOT DECREASE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR OUR GAP FLOW LOCATIONS FROM
LIVINGSTON TO NEAR NYE.

THE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT SATURDAY LOOKS
RATHER FORMIDABLE FOR THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
LATEST PROGS ARE SHOWING MAX WINDS UP TO 70 KTS AT 700 MB BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUMP TO OVER 7C/KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW VERY STRONG GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CARRY THIS THREAT FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME IS NOT USUALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THERE IS SOME LIFT AS TROUGH
COMES THROUGH NEGATING COLD AIR ADVECTION EFFECTS...MIXING ON
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN OUTLIER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND FRONT. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
ROSEBUD COUNTY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY. WE ARE GIVING
WIDE BERTH DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING...AND FEEL
LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THIS SHOULD AN UPGRADE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING BE DEEMED NECESSARY. AT THIS TIME THERE APPEARS
TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS ALONG AND ABOUT TWO HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR
BETTER. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

CONTINUING TO LOOK FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STILL BE DEALING
WITH STRONG WINDS E OF KBIL ON SUN DUE TO A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO
HAD SOME LOW POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS W OF KBIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LEE
TROUGHS FORMING DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR POSSIBLE WIND HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE WEEK. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE WEST AT KBIL AND KLVM WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 KT. GUSTS
INCREASE TO 50 KT IN THE KLVM AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THESE GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SAT MORNING...EXPECT
GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KT AT KLVM. EXPECTING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
KMLS TONIGHT. ARTHUR/DOBBS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 032/048 029/044 029/050 034/055 034/057 035/053
    0/N 01/N    10/N    00/B    00/N    00/N    01/N
LVM 041 031/042 025/039 029/047 035/051 035/050 034/049
    1/N 12/W    11/N    10/B    00/N    00/N    11/N
HDN 045 025/048 026/044 022/047 029/052 028/055 029/051
    0/B 02/W    10/N    01/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 044 030/050 027/042 024/044 030/051 030/051 030/048
    0/B 01/N    11/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
4BQ 042 025/049 027/039 023/042 028/050 028/052 030/049
    0/B 01/N    11/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 040 027/048 025/037 020/038 027/046 027/047 027/042
    0/B 01/N    41/N    01/N    11/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 041 021/048 023/038 022/045 026/053 027/053 027/051
    0/U 01/B    21/N    00/B    10/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-39-41-42-56>58-63.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 051054
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
354 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
EARLIER TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME INTENSE...ALBEIT BRIEF...SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ZONES AND DOWN INTO SHERIDAN. SOME
ROADS PICKED UP A QUICK INCH OF SNOW INCLUDING I-90 IN THE
SHERIDAN AREA. MOST OF THIS IS NOW DISSIPATING. RIDGING AT 500MB
WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. WE WILL SE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES AGAIN BY AFTERNOON AND PUSH US INTO THE 40S
FOR MANY AREAS.

WIND IS THE WORD AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENHANCED WINDS IN OUR GAP FLOW AREAS
BY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BY
8 PM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS PACIFIC FRONT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND THE
WINDS BECOME LESS GAP DRIVEN AND MORE DRIVEN BY MIX DOWN...AND DO
NOT DECREASE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR OUR GAP FLOW LOCATIONS FROM
LIVINGSTON TO NEAR NYE.

THE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT SATURDAY LOOKS
RATHER FORMIDABLE FOR THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
LATEST PROGS ARE SHOWING MAX WINDS UP TO 70 KTS AT 700 MB BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUMP TO OVER 7C/KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW VERY STRONG GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CARRY THIS THREAT FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME IS NOT USUALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THERE IS SOME LIFT AS TROUGH
COMES THROUGH NEGATING COLD AIR ADVECTION EFFECTS...MIXING ON
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN OUTLIER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND FRONT. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
ROSEBUD COUNTY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY. WE ARE GIVING
WIDE BERTH DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING...AND FEEL
LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THIS SHOULD AN UPGRADE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING BE DEEMED NECESSARY. AT THIS TIME THERE APPEARS
TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS ALONG AND ABOUT TWO HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR
BETTER. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

CONTINUING TO LOOK FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STILL BE DEALING
WITH STRONG WINDS E OF KBIL ON SUN DUE TO A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO
HAD SOME LOW POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS W OF KBIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LEE
TROUGHS FORMING DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR POSSIBLE WIND HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE WEEK. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE W FROM KBIL W TODAY WITH GUSTS FROM
25 TO 40 KT. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 50 KT IN THE KLVM AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. THE GUSTY W WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W TONIGHT. BY
SAT MORNING...EXPECT GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KT FROM BIG TIMBER TO KLVM.
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KMLS TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 032/048 029/044 029/050 034/055 034/057 035/053
    0/N 01/N    10/N    00/B    00/N    00/N    01/N
LVM 041 031/042 025/039 029/047 035/051 035/050 034/049
    1/N 12/W    11/N    10/B    00/N    00/N    11/N
HDN 045 025/048 026/044 022/047 029/052 028/055 029/051
    0/B 02/W    10/N    01/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 044 030/050 027/042 024/044 030/051 030/051 030/048
    0/B 01/N    11/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
4BQ 042 025/049 027/039 023/042 028/050 028/052 030/049
    1/B 01/N    11/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 040 027/048 025/037 020/038 027/046 027/047 027/042
    1/B 01/N    41/N    01/N    11/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 041 021/048 023/038 022/045 026/053 027/053 027/051
    0/B 01/B    21/N    00/B    10/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-39-41-42-56>58-63.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 051054
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
354 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
EARLIER TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME INTENSE...ALBEIT BRIEF...SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ZONES AND DOWN INTO SHERIDAN. SOME
ROADS PICKED UP A QUICK INCH OF SNOW INCLUDING I-90 IN THE
SHERIDAN AREA. MOST OF THIS IS NOW DISSIPATING. RIDGING AT 500MB
WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. WE WILL SE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES AGAIN BY AFTERNOON AND PUSH US INTO THE 40S
FOR MANY AREAS.

WIND IS THE WORD AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENHANCED WINDS IN OUR GAP FLOW AREAS
BY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BY
8 PM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS PACIFIC FRONT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND THE
WINDS BECOME LESS GAP DRIVEN AND MORE DRIVEN BY MIX DOWN...AND DO
NOT DECREASE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR OUR GAP FLOW LOCATIONS FROM
LIVINGSTON TO NEAR NYE.

THE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT SATURDAY LOOKS
RATHER FORMIDABLE FOR THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
LATEST PROGS ARE SHOWING MAX WINDS UP TO 70 KTS AT 700 MB BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUMP TO OVER 7C/KM.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW VERY STRONG GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CARRY THIS THREAT FURTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME IS NOT USUALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS...AND THERE IS SOME LIFT AS TROUGH
COMES THROUGH NEGATING COLD AIR ADVECTION EFFECTS...MIXING ON
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN OUTLIER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND FRONT. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
ROSEBUD COUNTY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY. WE ARE GIVING
WIDE BERTH DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING...AND FEEL
LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THIS SHOULD AN UPGRADE TO
HIGH WIND WARNING BE DEEMED NECESSARY. AT THIS TIME THERE APPEARS
TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS ALONG AND ABOUT TWO HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR
BETTER. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

CONTINUING TO LOOK FOR A MAINLY DRY AND WARM EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL STILL BE DEALING
WITH STRONG WINDS E OF KBIL ON SUN DUE TO A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWED A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI SO
HAD SOME LOW POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS W OF KBIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LEE
TROUGHS FORMING DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR POSSIBLE WIND HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE WEEK. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE W FROM KBIL W TODAY WITH GUSTS FROM
25 TO 40 KT. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 50 KT IN THE KLVM AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. THE GUSTY W WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W TONIGHT. BY
SAT MORNING...EXPECT GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 KT FROM BIG TIMBER TO KLVM.
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KMLS TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 032/048 029/044 029/050 034/055 034/057 035/053
    0/N 01/N    10/N    00/B    00/N    00/N    01/N
LVM 041 031/042 025/039 029/047 035/051 035/050 034/049
    1/N 12/W    11/N    10/B    00/N    00/N    11/N
HDN 045 025/048 026/044 022/047 029/052 028/055 029/051
    0/B 02/W    10/N    01/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 044 030/050 027/042 024/044 030/051 030/051 030/048
    0/B 01/N    11/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
4BQ 042 025/049 027/039 023/042 028/050 028/052 030/049
    1/B 01/N    11/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 040 027/048 025/037 020/038 027/046 027/047 027/042
    1/B 01/N    41/N    01/N    11/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 041 021/048 023/038 022/045 026/053 027/053 027/051
    0/B 01/B    21/N    00/B    10/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38-39-41-42-56>58-63.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 050409
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
909 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...

MAKING A LATE UPDATE THIS EVENING...WITH AN INCH OF SNOW REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN MUSSELSHELL COUNTY. THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN WHEATLAND COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN MUSSELSHELL AND CENTRAL
YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES...AND INTO BIG HORN COUNTY. SNOW IS
REPORTEDLY QUITE HEAVY...WITH AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN
APPROXIMATELY 20 MINUTES IN SOME AREAS. RAISED POPS IN THESE
AREAS...AND ADJUSTED QPF AND SNOW FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. GILSTAD

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS TODAY HAVE
SLOWLY DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE LIVINGSTON AREA
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS ALLOWING FOR
LESS STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GAP WIND AREAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
HELPING TO DECREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE GIVEN A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A RETURN TO TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS OUR GAP AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THEY WILL BE ORIENTED LESS-FAVORABLY FOR THE VERY
STRONG GAP WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST RISES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER...THESE STRONGER RISES SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT AT
THIS TIME HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY COUNTERACT SOME
OF THE HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. IN ADDITION...NIGHTTIME
PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST ARE NOT CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/WIND COMBINATION
ISSUES OUT TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS SATURDAY NIGHT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A WATCH FOR THAT IN ADDITION TO ANY HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TAKES
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE WARM WEATHER...NEARING 60 ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR MANY FOLKS...WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL NOT MAKE THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES FEEL AS NICE.

EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AROUND MILES CITY AND BAKER...WHILE
STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WINDY AND COOL...WILL SEE THE WINDS
DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG
THE DIVIDE FROM NYE TO LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON WILL SEE THE WINDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS CROSS-DIVIDE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DEVELOP. THESE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE GAP DRIVEN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE MORE A MIXED WIND WILL SPREAD EAST
TO BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT GAP WIND GUSTS TO
REACH 45 TO 50MPH EACH MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE LOCATIONS
EAST TOWARDS BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP WILL SEE 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
THESE AFTERNOONS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 60 ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CRASH THE RIDGE. COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THESE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...


MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE AT KMLS AND KLVM WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH 10Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND THE BIG HORNS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS WILL
IMPACT KLVM ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND PICKING UP AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. DOBBS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/045 032/047 028/044 029/049 032/057 035/056 032/049
    30/N    02/W    20/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    11/N
LVM 025/042 034/042 026/040 029/047 034/054 036/051 033/048
    11/N    12/W    21/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    11/N
HDN 025/045 026/048 026/044 023/046 027/054 028/054 027/046
    50/B    02/W    20/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 023/043 027/048 026/042 023/043 027/051 032/050 027/041
    30/B    02/W    31/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
4BQ 025/043 024/048 026/040 022/042 025/051 030/051 026/043
    31/B    02/W    32/J    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 022/040 024/046 025/038 021/038 023/047 028/048 023/036
    31/B    02/W    41/N    01/N    11/B    01/U    11/B
SHR 019/040 020/048 024/038 022/045 025/054 027/053 026/047
    30/B    02/W    22/J    00/B    10/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 050108
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
608 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...

MAKING A QUICK AND EARLY UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS AND
WEATHER FOR THIS EVENING...FROM NOW THROUGH 12Z.

ECHO DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.
MOST ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FLURRIES LIGHT SNOW...BUT SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER TREASURE AND MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES...AND NORTHERN
GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY APPEARS A BIT MORE INTENSE.
ADDITIONALLY...REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW AND 1/2 MI VIS IN KLWT UPWIND
HAS CAUGHT MY ATTENTION. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALSO
INCLUDED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR WESTERN ZONES WITH POPS BETWEEN
10 AND 15 PERCENT SINCE CANNOT RULE OUT COMPLETELY...WITH
INCREASED ECHO COVERAGE IN WEST. GILSTAD

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS TODAY HAVE
SLOWLY DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE LIVINGSTON AREA
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS ALLOWING FOR
LESS STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GAP WIND AREAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
HELPING TO DECREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE GIVEN A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A RETURN TO TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS OUR GAP AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THEY WILL BE ORIENTED LESS-FAVORABLY FOR THE VERY
STRONG GAP WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST RISES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER...THESE STRONGER RISES SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT AT
THIS TIME HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY COUNTERACT SOME
OF THE HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. IN ADDITION...NIGHTTIME
PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST ARE NOT CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/WIND COMBINATION
ISSUES OUT TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS SATURDAY NIGHT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A WATCH FOR THAT IN ADDITION TO ANY HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TAKES
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE WARM WEATHER...NEARING 60 ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR MANY FOLKS...WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL NOT MAKE THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES FEEL AS NICE.

EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AROUND MILES CITY AND BAKER...WHILE
STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WINDY AND COOL...WILL SEE THE WINDS
DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG
THE DIVIDE FROM NYE TO LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON WILL SEE THE WINDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS CROSS-DIVIDE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DEVELOP. THESE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE GAP DRIVEN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE MORE A MIXED WIND WILL SPREAD EAST
TO BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT GAP WIND GUSTS TO
REACH 45 TO 50MPH EACH MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE LOCATIONS
EAST TOWARDS BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP WILL SEE 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
THESE AFTERNOONS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 60 ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CRASH THE RIDGE. COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THESE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...


MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE AT KMLS AND KLVM WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH 10Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND THE BIG HORNS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS WILL
IMPACT KLVM ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND PICKING UP AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. DOBBS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/045 032/047 028/044 029/049 032/057 035/056 032/049
    10/N    02/W    20/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    11/N
LVM 025/042 034/042 026/040 029/047 034/054 036/051 033/048
    31/N    12/W    21/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    11/N
HDN 025/045 026/048 026/044 023/046 027/054 028/054 027/046
    20/B    02/W    20/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 023/043 027/048 026/042 023/043 027/051 032/050 027/041
    20/B    02/W    31/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
4BQ 025/043 024/048 026/040 022/042 025/051 030/051 026/043
    21/B    02/W    32/J    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 022/040 024/046 025/038 021/038 023/047 028/048 023/036
    31/B    02/W    41/N    01/N    11/B    01/U    11/B
SHR 019/040 020/048 024/038 022/045 025/054 027/053 026/047
    20/B    02/W    22/J    00/B    10/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 042212
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS TODAY HAVE
SLOWLY DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE LIVINGSTON AREA
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS ALLOWING FOR
LESS STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GAP WIND AREAS. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
HELPING TO DECREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE GIVEN A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A RETURN TO TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS OUR GAP AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THEY WILL BE ORIENTED LESS-FAVORABLY FOR THE VERY
STRONG GAP WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST RISES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER...THESE STRONGER RISES SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT AT
THIS TIME HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY COUNTERACT SOME
OF THE HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. IN ADDITION...NIGHTTIME
PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST ARE NOT CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/WIND COMBINATION
ISSUES OUT TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS SATURDAY NIGHT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A WATCH FOR THAT IN ADDITION TO ANY HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 500MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE WARM WEATHER...NEARING 60 ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR MANY
FOLKS...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL NOT MAKE THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES
FEEL AS NICE.

EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AROUND MILES CITY AND BAKER...WHILE
STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WINDY AND COOL...WILL SEE THE WINDS
DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG
THE DIVIDE FROM NYE TO LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON WILL SEE THE WINDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS CROSS-DIVIDE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS DEVELOP. THESE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE GAP DRIVEN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE MORE A MIXED WIND WILL SPREAD EAST
TO BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT GAP WIND GUSTS TO
REACH 45 TO 50MPH EACH MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE LOCATIONS
EAST TOWARDS BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP WILL SEE 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
THESE AFTERNOONS.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 60 ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CRASH THE RIDGE. COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THESE SHORTWAVES WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...


MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE AT KMLS AND KLVM WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH 10Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND THE BIG HORNS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS WILL
IMPACT KLVM ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND PICKING UP AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. DOBBS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/045 032/047 028/044 029/049 032/057 035/056 032/049
    10/N    02/W    20/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    11/N
LVM 025/042 034/042 026/040 029/047 034/054 036/051 033/048
    31/N    12/W    21/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    11/N
HDN 025/045 026/048 026/044 023/046 027/054 028/054 027/046
    20/B    02/W    20/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 023/043 027/048 026/042 023/043 027/051 032/050 027/041
    20/B    02/W    31/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
4BQ 025/043 024/048 026/040 022/042 025/051 030/051 026/043
    21/B    02/W    32/J    01/B    10/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 022/040 024/046 025/038 021/038 023/047 028/048 023/036
    31/B    02/W    41/N    01/N    11/B    01/U    11/B
SHR 019/040 020/048 024/038 022/045 025/054 027/053 026/047
    20/B    02/W    22/J    00/B    10/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041640
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
940 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO I AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY UPDATES THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO
60 MPH IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING IN
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AS WELL AS SHIFT THE LEE- SIDE
TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AREA. THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL USHER IN GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO IT WILL BE A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WITH A SLIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCE EAST OF BILLINGS.
AREAS IN BETWEEN SHOULD REMAIN DRY DUE TO A STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND FOOTHILLS
AREAS UNTIL NOON. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

WIND IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND THE
LONG TERM FOR THAT MATTER...AND THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ANYONE
LOOKING FOR A SNOW EVENT SHOULD STOP READING NOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MT WITH AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROF EXTENDING FROM WA TO NV. LEE SIDE TROF
WITH A PRESSURE DIFFERENCE OF 16MB FROM IDA-LWT HAS RESULTED IN
INCREASED GAP FLOW AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...AND JUST RECENTLY THE
LVM ASOS GUSTED TO 58 MPH. WIND ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT TIL
NOON FOR THESE AREAS AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES. ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING WILL END THE STABLE GAP FLOW AND
MIXED WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE. SHOULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON LATER TODAY...AND GENERALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS TODAY...PER BRIEF PERIOD OF
ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WILL KEEP MOST OF OUR WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY TODAY...BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PASSES AND FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY.
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS ACROSS OUR EAST SHOULD COVER THIS.

NEXT PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OF COURSE THE DEVELOPING LEE SIDE
TROF WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED GAP FLOW ONCE AGAIN. THIS NEXT
PERIOD OF WIND WILL INVOLVE FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW AND A TIGHTER
SFC GRADIENT...WITH PLENTY OF STABILITY...SO EXPECT WINDS TO STEP
UP ACCORDINGLY. WILL PUSH GUSTS FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE UP TO THE
60-70 MPH RANGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS FOR BIG TIMBER AND
HARLOWTON SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY WHEN PRESSURE FALLS SLIDE
EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS WE
REMAIN DOMINATED BY PACIFIC FLOW. SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TODAY...THEN LOWER TO MID 40S
FRIDAY WITH STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT AND CONTINUED LOWER ELEVATION
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A WINDY AND WARM EXTENDED FORECAST IS STILL ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST
AREA SAT THROUGH THU. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES SHOWED A SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD...THE TEMPERATURE SPREADS BETWEEN
MODELS WERE IN THE MEDIUM TO HIGH CATEGORY. THE REASON FOR THIS
WAS THAT BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE E
SIDE OF A STRONG RIDGE UNDER NW FLOW AS AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.. THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE OPENS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF BACKDOOR FRONTS
SLIDING INTO THE AREA WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST.

THAT BEING SAID...NOTED SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGINNING ON SAT AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS TAKES THE WAVE AND IT/S ENERGY ACROSS
THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE ENERGY N OF THE MT/CANADIAN
BORDER. THE RESULT IS THE GFS BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA THAN THE ECMWF. IN ADDITION...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
FIGHTING THE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THUS REDUCED POPS A LITTLE USING
THE CONSALL GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING A WARMER AIRMASS THAN
THE GFS SO WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. KEPT SOME POPS OVER
THE AREA SAT NIGHT...THEN WENT MOSTLY DRY ON SUN WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SUN WILL BE A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE WAVE.

STRONG RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
MON THROUGH WED. TUE AND WED LOOKED QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. NOTED THE ECMWF HAD A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ON THU
WHILE THE GFS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT OF THE
WAVE...THE ECMWF TRIES TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL UNDERGO CHANGES SINCE
IT IS DAY 8...STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN SUPPORTED WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED W OF KBIL...THEN WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST W OF KBIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS TO AREAS AROUND KLVM AND N OF KBIL THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND KLVM AND E OF KBIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CRAZYS...BEARTOOTHS AND
ABSAROKAS TODAY...WITH AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE E AND S OF KBIL LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY W TO SW SURFACE WINDS WILL AFFECT AREAS W OF KBIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT OVER KLVM.
ARTHUR/DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 028/045 033/048 030/043 029/049 034/055 034/053
    1/N 10/N    02/W    21/N    11/N    00/N    00/N
LVM 038 024/040 033/042 026/040 028/046 034/049 033/049
    3/W 31/N    13/W    21/N    11/N    00/N    11/N
HDN 042 025/045 026/048 026/044 022/046 028/051 028/051
    1/N 20/B    02/W    21/N    11/E    10/U    01/U
MLS 041 025/045 029/050 029/042 024/042 029/048 030/047
    2/W 20/U    02/W    31/N    01/E    11/B    01/U
4BQ 040 025/043 024/048 026/041 022/042 026/049 028/048
    2/W 21/B    03/W    31/N    01/B    11/B    01/U
BHK 038 024/041 025/048 027/038 021/037 025/044 026/043
    2/W 31/B    02/W    31/N    01/N    11/B    01/U
SHR 039 022/041 022/047 024/039 021/045 027/051 027/050
    1/E 20/B    02/W    21/N    11/B    10/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040958
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
258 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

WIND IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND THE
LONG TERM FOR THAT MATTER...AND THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ANYONE
LOOKING FOR A SNOW EVENT SHOULD STOP READING NOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MT WITH AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROF EXTENDING FROM WA TO NV. LEE SIDE TROF
WITH A PRESSURE DIFFERENCE OF 16MB FROM IDA-LWT HAS RESULTED IN
INCREASED GAP FLOW AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE...AND JUST RECENTLY THE
LVM ASOS GUSTED TO 58 MPH. WIND ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT TIL
NOON FOR THESE AREAS AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES. ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING WILL END THE STABLE GAP FLOW AND
MIXED WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE. SHOULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON LATER TODAY...AND GENERALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS TODAY...PER BRIEF PERIOD OF
ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WILL KEEP MOST OF OUR WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY TODAY...BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR EAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PASSES AND FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY.
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS ACROSS OUR EAST SHOULD COVER THIS.

NEXT PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OF COURSE THE DEVELOPING LEE SIDE
TROF WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED GAP FLOW ONCE AGAIN. THIS NEXT
PERIOD OF WIND WILL INVOLVE FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW AND A TIGHTER
SFC GRADIENT...WITH PLENTY OF STABILITY...SO EXPECT WINDS TO STEP
UP ACCORDINGLY. WILL PUSH GUSTS FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE UP TO THE
60-70 MPH RANGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS FOR BIG TIMBER AND
HARLOWTON SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY WHEN PRESSURE FALLS SLIDE
EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS WE
REMAIN DOMINATED BY PACIFIC FLOW. SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S TODAY...THEN LOWER TO MID 40S
FRIDAY WITH STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT AND CONTINUED LOWER ELEVATION
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A WINDY AND WARM EXTENDED FORECAST IS STILL ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST
AREA SAT THROUGH THU. WHILE THE ENSEMBLES SHOWED A SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD...THE TEMPERATURE SPREADS BETWEEN
MODELS WERE IN THE MEDIUM TO HIGH CATEGORY. THE REASON FOR THIS
WAS THAT BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE E
SIDE OF A STRONG RIDGE UNDER NW FLOW AS AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.. THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE OPENS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF BACKDOOR FRONTS
SLIDING INTO THE AREA WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST.

THAT BEING SAID...NOTED SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS BEGINNING ON SAT AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS TAKES THE WAVE AND IT/S ENERGY ACROSS
THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE ENERGY N OF THE MT/CANADIAN
BORDER. THE RESULT IS THE GFS BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA THAN THE ECMWF. IN ADDITION...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
FIGHTING THE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THUS REDUCED POPS A LITTLE USING
THE CONSALL GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING A WARMER AIRMASS THAN
THE GFS SO WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. KEPT SOME POPS OVER
THE AREA SAT NIGHT...THEN WENT MOSTLY DRY ON SUN WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SUN WILL BE A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE WAVE.

STRONG RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
MON THROUGH WED. TUE AND WED LOOKED QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. NOTED THE ECMWF HAD A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE ON THU
WHILE THE GFS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT OF THE
WAVE...THE ECMWF TRIES TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL UNDERGO CHANGES SINCE
IT IS DAY 8...STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN SUPPORTED WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED W OF KBIL...THEN WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST W OF KBIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS TO AREAS AROUND KLVM AND N OF KBIL THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND KLVM AND E OF KBIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CRAZYS...BEARTOOTHS AND
ABSAROKAS TODAY...WITH AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER THE NE BIGHORNS.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE E AND S OF KBIL LATE
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY W
TO SW SURFACE WINDS WILL AFFECT AREAS W OF KBIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT OVER KLVM. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 028/045 033/048 030/043 029/049 034/055 034/053
    1/N 10/N    02/W    21/N    11/N    00/N    00/N
LVM 038 024/040 033/042 026/040 028/046 034/049 033/049
    3/W 31/N    13/W    21/N    11/N    00/N    11/N
HDN 042 025/045 026/048 026/044 022/046 028/051 028/051
    1/N 20/B    02/W    21/N    11/E    10/U    01/U
MLS 041 025/045 029/050 029/042 024/042 029/048 030/047
    2/W 20/U    02/W    31/N    01/E    11/B    01/U
4BQ 040 025/043 024/048 026/041 022/042 026/049 028/048
    2/W 21/B    03/W    31/N    01/B    11/B    01/U
BHK 038 024/041 025/048 027/038 021/037 025/044 026/043
    2/W 31/B    02/W    31/N    01/N    11/B    01/U
SHR 039 022/041 022/047 024/039 021/045 027/051 027/050
    1/E 20/B    02/W    21/N    11/B    10/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040309
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
809 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...

RELATIVELY MINOR UPDATE TO INHERITED FORECAST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY IS CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE DRY ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...EXPECT TO SEE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT
STILL NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...WIND CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN AND AROUND LIVINGSTON...SO ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS
STILL APPEAR ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. GILSTAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN COAST WAS INDUCING
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN A LEE TROUGH AND DEVELOP STRONG WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND
NYE OVERNIGHT. WIND FORECAST TRICKY OVER THE WEST AS THE TROUGH
DOES SEND QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY INTO IDAHO AND THIS MAY CAUSE TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. ANOTHER THOUGHT...HOWEVER...IS FOR THE QUICK
ERODING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE PROPER GRADIENT TO FORM OVER WESTERN VALLEYS. LOCAL
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS WERE TRENDING UPWARD FOR WIND SPEED AND THE NAM
MODEL WAS HITTING LIVINGSTON HARD WITH WIND OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL BE CLOSE BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS
EVENT THROUGH THROUGH MORNING FOR THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND UPPER
STILLWATER RIVER VALLEYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL GENERATE LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL SHUT
THE WINDS OFF OVER THE WEST BY NOON. THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE
TROUGH WILL LIMIT THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THIS SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR
8C/KM AND SOME MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS WERE KEEPING
POPS EAST OF BILLINGS AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEP MOST OF THE CENTRAL
ZONES DRY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CRUISES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS IN. THIS RIDGE GETS
SHUNTED EAST AND FLATTENED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE AND ASCENT TO ENTER INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A LEE
TROUGH WILL FORM AND TIGHTEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SAT INTO EARLY
SUN... AS PER GFS AND EURO GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE PLAINS IF THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION OCCURS. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME STRONG WEST
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING HOWEVER. THIS INFLUENCE WILL MAINLY BE IN
WESTERN ZONES AND COULD PUSH AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKED DRY OUTSIDE OUR EASTERN ZONES
WHERE RAIN/SNOW MAY FORM IN THE COLD AIR SURGE WITHIN THE N-NW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON LATE MON THROUGH TUES... DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF THIS SURGE.

WINDS GUST OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS EARLY
SAT... THEN TRANSITIONING TO A POST FRONT WIND EVENT WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING... ESPECIALLY FOR
BILLINGS AND W... THEN REMAINING GUSTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER IF SHOWERS MIX DOWN
FASTER MID-LEVEL FLOW.

WITH CONTINUING DOWNSLOPE FLOW... THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE WARM FOLLOWING THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THIS COULD FORCE THE COLD
AIR SURGE FURTHER EAST AND KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN FORECAST...
BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THIS GRADIENT WILL SET UP... HAVE
TAKEN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED. EXPECT
WINDS AROUND KLVM TO BE INCREASING INTO THE NIGHT...WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 50KTS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DROP OF AGAIN
BY LATE MORNING. GILSTAD
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 022/041 028/045 032/048 030/043 029/051 033/057 033/051
    01/N    10/N    02/W    22/W    01/N    10/N    00/N
LVM 023/037 024/039 029/042 028/040 029/047 033/050 035/047
    13/W    31/N    13/W    31/N    11/N    01/N    10/N
HDN 014/042 025/045 026/048 025/042 023/048 026/053 027/049
    01/E    21/B    02/W    22/W    01/E    10/U    00/B
MLS 015/041 025/045 029/049 029/042 025/043 028/049 028/045
    02/W    20/B    02/W    41/N    02/W    21/B    00/B
4BQ 013/040 025/043 025/049 027/040 023/044 026/052 027/046
    02/W    21/B    03/W    31/N    01/N    21/B    00/B
BHK 011/037 024/041 026/047 027/038 021/039 023/046 023/041
    02/J    32/J    02/W    41/N    02/J    21/B    01/B
SHR 007/037 021/041 022/047 025/039 021/047 026/054 025/049
    01/E    11/B    03/W    32/W    01/E    10/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MST
      THURSDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040308
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
808 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...

RELATIVELY MINOR UPDATE TO INHERITED FORECAST THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY IS CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE DRY ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...EXPECT TO SEE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT
STILL NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...WIND CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN AND AROUND LIVINGSTON...SO ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS
STILL APPEAR ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. GILSTAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN COAST WAS INDUCING
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN A LEE TROUGH AND DEVELOP STRONG WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND
NYE OVERNIGHT. WIND FORECAST TRICKY OVER THE WEST AS THE TROUGH
DOES SEND QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY INTO IDAHO AND THIS MAY CAUSE TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. ANOTHER THOUGHT...HOWEVER...IS FOR THE QUICK
ERODING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE PROPER GRADIENT TO FORM OVER WESTERN VALLEYS. LOCAL
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS WERE TRENDING UPWARD FOR WIND SPEED AND THE NAM
MODEL WAS HITTING LIVINGSTON HARD WITH WIND OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL BE CLOSE BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS
EVENT THROUGH THROUGH MORNING FOR THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND UPPER
STILLWATER RIVER VALLEYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL GENERATE LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL SHUT
THE WINDS OFF OVER THE WEST BY NOON. THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE
TROUGH WILL LIMIT THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THIS SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR
8C/KM AND SOME MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS WERE KEEPING
POPS EAST OF BILLINGS AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEP MOST OF THE CENTRAL
ZONES DRY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CRUISES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS IN. THIS RIDGE GETS
SHUNTED EAST AND FLATTENED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE AND ASCENT TO ENTER INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A LEE
TROUGH WILL FORM AND TIGHTEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SAT INTO EARLY
SUN... AS PER GFS AND EURO GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE PLAINS IF THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION OCCURS. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME STRONG WEST
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING HOWEVER. THIS INFLUENCE WILL MAINLY BE IN
WESTERN ZONES AND COULD PUSH AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKED DRY OUTSIDE OUR EASTERN ZONES
WHERE RAIN/SNOW MAY FORM IN THE COLD AIR SURGE WITHIN THE N-NW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON LATE MON THROUGH TUES... DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF THIS SURGE.

WINDS GUST OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS EARLY
SAT... THEN TRANSITIONING TO A POST FRONT WIND EVENT WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING... ESPECIALLY FOR
BILLINGS AND W... THEN REMAINING GUSTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER IF SHOWERS MIX DOWN
FASTER MID-LEVEL FLOW.

WITH CONTINUING DOWNSLOPE FLOW... THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE WARM FOLLOWING THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THIS COULD FORCE THE COLD
AIR SURGE FURTHER EAST AND KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN FORECAST...
BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THIS GRADIENT WILL SET UP... HAVE
TAKEN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED. EXPECT
WINDS AROUND KLVM TO BE INCREASING INTO THE NIGHT...WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 50KTS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DROP OF AGAIN
BY LATE MORNING. GILSTAD
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 022/041 028/045 032/048 030/043 029/051 033/057 033/051
    01/N    10/N    02/W    22/W    01/N    10/N    00/N
LVM 023/037 024/039 029/042 028/040 029/047 033/050 035/047
    13/W    31/N    13/W    31/N    11/N    01/N    10/N
HDN 014/042 025/045 026/048 025/042 023/048 026/053 027/049
    01/E    21/B    02/W    22/W    01/E    10/U    00/B
MLS 015/041 025/045 029/049 029/042 025/043 028/049 028/045
    02/W    20/B    02/W    41/N    02/W    21/B    00/B
4BQ 013/040 025/043 025/049 027/040 023/044 026/052 027/046
    02/W    21/B    03/W    31/N    01/N    21/B    00/B
BHK 011/037 024/041 026/047 027/038 021/039 023/046 023/041
    02/J    32/J    02/W    41/N    02/J    21/B    01/B
SHR 007/037 021/041 022/047 025/039 021/047 026/054 025/049
    01/E    11/B    03/W    32/W    01/E    10/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MST
      THURSDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 032157
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
257 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN COAST WAS INDUCING
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN A LEE TROUGH AND DEVELOP STRONG WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND
NYE OVERNIGHT. WIND FORECAST TRICKY OVER THE WEST AS THE TROUGH
DOES SEND QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY INTO IDAHO AND THIS MAY CAUSE TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. ANOTHER THOUGHT...HOWEVER...IS FOR THE QUICK
ERODING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE PROPER GRADIENT TO FORM OVER WESTERN VALLEYS. LOCAL
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS WERE TRENDING UPWARD FOR WIND SPEED AND THE NAM
MODEL WAS HITTING LIVINGSTON HARD WITH WIND OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL BE CLOSE BUT DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS
EVENT THROUGH THROUGH MORNING FOR THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND UPPER
STILLWATER RIVER VALLEYS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRASHES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL GENERATE LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL SHUT
THE WINDS OFF OVER THE WEST BY NOON. THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE
TROUGH WILL LIMIT THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THIS SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR
8C/KM AND SOME MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS WERE KEEPING
POPS EAST OF BILLINGS AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEP MOST OF THE CENTRAL
ZONES DRY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CRUISES INTO EASTERN MONTANA
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS IN. THIS RIDGE GETS
SHUNTED EAST AND FLATTENED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE AND ASCENT TO ENTER INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A LEE
TROUGH WILL FORM AND TIGHTEN AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER THE
WESTERN VALLEYS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SAT INTO EARLY
SUN... AS PER GFS AND EURO GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE PLAINS IF THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION OCCURS. PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME STRONG WEST
WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING HOWEVER. THIS INFLUENCE WILL MAINLY BE IN
WESTERN ZONES AND COULD PUSH AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKED DRY OUTSIDE OUR EASTERN ZONES
WHERE RAIN/SNOW MAY FORM IN THE COLD AIR SURGE WITHIN THE N-NW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON LATE MON THROUGH TUES... DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF THIS SURGE.

WINDS GUST OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS EARLY
SAT... THEN TRANSITIONING TO A POST FRONT WIND EVENT WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING... ESPECIALLY FOR
BILLINGS AND W... THEN REMAINING GUSTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER IF SHOWERS MIX DOWN
FASTER MID-LEVEL FLOW.

WITH CONTINUING DOWNSLOPE FLOW... THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE WARM FOLLOWING THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THIS COULD FORCE THE COLD
AIR SURGE FURTHER EAST AND KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN FORECAST...
BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE THIS GRADIENT WILL SET UP... HAVE
TAKEN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
AROUND KLVM TO BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH LIKELY BY MIDNIGHT. MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 022/041 028/045 032/048 030/043 029/051 033/057 033/051
    01/N    10/N    02/W    22/W    01/N    10/N    00/N
LVM 023/037 024/039 029/042 028/040 029/047 033/050 035/047
    13/W    31/N    13/W    31/N    11/N    01/N    10/N
HDN 014/042 025/045 026/048 025/042 023/048 026/053 027/049
    01/E    21/B    02/W    22/W    01/E    10/U    00/B
MLS 015/041 025/045 029/049 029/042 025/043 028/049 028/045
    02/W    20/B    02/W    41/N    02/W    21/B    00/B
4BQ 013/040 025/043 025/049 027/040 023/044 026/052 027/046
    02/W    21/B    03/W    31/N    01/N    21/B    00/B
BHK 011/037 024/041 026/047 027/038 021/039 023/046 023/041
    02/J    32/J    02/W    41/N    02/J    21/B    01/B
SHR 007/037 021/041 022/047 025/039 021/047 026/054 025/049
    01/E    11/B    03/W    32/W    01/E    10/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MST
      THURSDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031641
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
941 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS
HOUR. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE
SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR AT 700MB WAS WORKING INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THAT SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE
LOOK AT WESTERN VALLEY GAP WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. AT THIS POINT...THERE WAS QUITE A BIT
OF SURFACE RIDGING IN NORTHERN IDAHO THAT MAY PREVENT THE GRADIENT
FROM REACHING THE PROPER ORIENTATION FOR A WIND HIGHLIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL MAKE A FINAL DECISION ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS AND EAST
OF BILLINGS. THIS ENERGY AND ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN ON THE
STEEP SIDE TODAY BUT BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO DRYING
AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE THE
DIURNAL LIGHT SNOW PELLET SHOWERS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR LEE SIDE SFC TROFFING AND INCREASED
WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS TONIGHT. GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SPLITTING NATURE OF PACIFIC TROF AS IT MOVES INLAND AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SW MAY KEEP GUSTS A BIT UNDER 58
MPH...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL END THE GAP FLOW AS WE TRANSITION TO MIXED WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING IN WX STORY FOR INCREASED WINDS AT
LIVINGSTON AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF 50+ MPH GUSTS.

PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN OUR
EAST AWAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE. SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAY PER THE PACIFIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS THIS WEEKEND.
THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
UP AROUND THE FOOTHILLS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET
UP A GAP FLOW EVENT FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON. WINDS GUST OVER
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS. SATURDAY NIGHT THIS
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A POST FRONT WIND EVENT WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH ACROSS MOST SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THE DIFFERENCES WERE
SMALL...HAVE LEFT WIND SPEEDS ALONE.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THE PRECIP WILL BE STRONG WEST WINDS CREATING STRONG
DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. THIS INFLUENCE WILL
MAINLY BE IN WESTERN ZONES AND COULD PUSH AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...SO THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY.

FOLLOWING THE TROUGH...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN. WITH CONTINUE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WILL BE WARM. THERE IS
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. GIVEN THE VERY LARGE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER THAN FORECASTED. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
AROUND KLVM TO BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH LIKELY. MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 022/041 028/045 032/048 031/043 029/051 033/055
    0/B 01/N    11/N    01/N    21/N    11/N    11/N
LVM 033 023/037 024/039 029/043 027/039 028/046 032/049
    0/N 13/W    31/N    12/W    31/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 037 014/042 025/045 026/048 027/042 022/048 026/052
    0/B 01/E    11/B    01/B    21/N    11/N    11/B
MLS 036 015/041 025/045 029/050 028/041 025/042 027/046
    0/B 02/W    20/B    01/N    41/N    11/N    11/N
4BQ 034 013/040 025/043 025/048 027/039 023/042 026/048
    1/B 02/W    21/B    01/B    31/N    11/N    11/N
BHK 032 011/037 024/041 026/049 027/037 021/037 024/042
    1/E 01/E    21/B    01/N    31/N    11/N    11/N
SHR 031 007/037 021/041 022/047 024/038 021/045 025/051
    1/B 01/E    11/B    03/W    31/N    12/W    11/N

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031641
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
941 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS
HOUR. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE
SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR AT 700MB WAS WORKING INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THAT SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE
LOOK AT WESTERN VALLEY GAP WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. AT THIS POINT...THERE WAS QUITE A BIT
OF SURFACE RIDGING IN NORTHERN IDAHO THAT MAY PREVENT THE GRADIENT
FROM REACHING THE PROPER ORIENTATION FOR A WIND HIGHLIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL MAKE A FINAL DECISION ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS AND EAST
OF BILLINGS. THIS ENERGY AND ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN ON THE
STEEP SIDE TODAY BUT BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO DRYING
AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE THE
DIURNAL LIGHT SNOW PELLET SHOWERS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR LEE SIDE SFC TROFFING AND INCREASED
WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS TONIGHT. GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SPLITTING NATURE OF PACIFIC TROF AS IT MOVES INLAND AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SW MAY KEEP GUSTS A BIT UNDER 58
MPH...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL END THE GAP FLOW AS WE TRANSITION TO MIXED WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING IN WX STORY FOR INCREASED WINDS AT
LIVINGSTON AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF 50+ MPH GUSTS.

PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN OUR
EAST AWAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE. SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAY PER THE PACIFIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS THIS WEEKEND.
THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
UP AROUND THE FOOTHILLS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET
UP A GAP FLOW EVENT FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON. WINDS GUST OVER
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS. SATURDAY NIGHT THIS
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A POST FRONT WIND EVENT WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH ACROSS MOST SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THE DIFFERENCES WERE
SMALL...HAVE LEFT WIND SPEEDS ALONE.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THE PRECIP WILL BE STRONG WEST WINDS CREATING STRONG
DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. THIS INFLUENCE WILL
MAINLY BE IN WESTERN ZONES AND COULD PUSH AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...SO THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY.

FOLLOWING THE TROUGH...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN. WITH CONTINUE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WILL BE WARM. THERE IS
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. GIVEN THE VERY LARGE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER THAN FORECASTED. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
AROUND KLVM TO BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH LIKELY. MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 022/041 028/045 032/048 031/043 029/051 033/055
    0/B 01/N    11/N    01/N    21/N    11/N    11/N
LVM 033 023/037 024/039 029/043 027/039 028/046 032/049
    0/N 13/W    31/N    12/W    31/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 037 014/042 025/045 026/048 027/042 022/048 026/052
    0/B 01/E    11/B    01/B    21/N    11/N    11/B
MLS 036 015/041 025/045 029/050 028/041 025/042 027/046
    0/B 02/W    20/B    01/N    41/N    11/N    11/N
4BQ 034 013/040 025/043 025/048 027/039 023/042 026/048
    1/B 02/W    21/B    01/B    31/N    11/N    11/N
BHK 032 011/037 024/041 026/049 027/037 021/037 024/042
    1/E 01/E    21/B    01/N    31/N    11/N    11/N
SHR 031 007/037 021/041 022/047 024/038 021/045 025/051
    1/B 01/E    11/B    03/W    31/N    12/W    11/N

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031641
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
941 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS
HOUR. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING...BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE
SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR AT 700MB WAS WORKING INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THAT SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE
LOOK AT WESTERN VALLEY GAP WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. AT THIS POINT...THERE WAS QUITE A BIT
OF SURFACE RIDGING IN NORTHERN IDAHO THAT MAY PREVENT THE GRADIENT
FROM REACHING THE PROPER ORIENTATION FOR A WIND HIGHLIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL MAKE A FINAL DECISION ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS AND EAST
OF BILLINGS. THIS ENERGY AND ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN ON THE
STEEP SIDE TODAY BUT BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO DRYING
AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE THE
DIURNAL LIGHT SNOW PELLET SHOWERS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR LEE SIDE SFC TROFFING AND INCREASED
WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS TONIGHT. GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SPLITTING NATURE OF PACIFIC TROF AS IT MOVES INLAND AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SW MAY KEEP GUSTS A BIT UNDER 58
MPH...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL END THE GAP FLOW AS WE TRANSITION TO MIXED WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING IN WX STORY FOR INCREASED WINDS AT
LIVINGSTON AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF 50+ MPH GUSTS.

PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN OUR
EAST AWAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE. SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAY PER THE PACIFIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS THIS WEEKEND.
THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
UP AROUND THE FOOTHILLS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET
UP A GAP FLOW EVENT FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON. WINDS GUST OVER
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS. SATURDAY NIGHT THIS
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A POST FRONT WIND EVENT WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH ACROSS MOST SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THE DIFFERENCES WERE
SMALL...HAVE LEFT WIND SPEEDS ALONE.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THE PRECIP WILL BE STRONG WEST WINDS CREATING STRONG
DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. THIS INFLUENCE WILL
MAINLY BE IN WESTERN ZONES AND COULD PUSH AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...SO THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY.

FOLLOWING THE TROUGH...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN. WITH CONTINUE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WILL BE WARM. THERE IS
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. GIVEN THE VERY LARGE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER THAN FORECASTED. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
AROUND KLVM TO BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH LIKELY. MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 022/041 028/045 032/048 031/043 029/051 033/055
    0/B 01/N    11/N    01/N    21/N    11/N    11/N
LVM 033 023/037 024/039 029/043 027/039 028/046 032/049
    0/N 13/W    31/N    12/W    31/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 037 014/042 025/045 026/048 027/042 022/048 026/052
    0/B 01/E    11/B    01/B    21/N    11/N    11/B
MLS 036 015/041 025/045 029/050 028/041 025/042 027/046
    0/B 02/W    20/B    01/N    41/N    11/N    11/N
4BQ 034 013/040 025/043 025/048 027/039 023/042 026/048
    1/B 02/W    21/B    01/B    31/N    11/N    11/N
BHK 032 011/037 024/041 026/049 027/037 021/037 024/042
    1/E 01/E    21/B    01/N    31/N    11/N    11/N
SHR 031 007/037 021/041 022/047 024/038 021/045 025/051
    1/B 01/E    11/B    03/W    31/N    12/W    11/N

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031007
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
307 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS AND EAST
OF BILLINGS. THIS ENERGY AND ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING...AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN ON THE
STEEP SIDE TODAY BUT BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO DRYING
AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM...SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE THE
DIURNAL LIGHT SNOW PELLET SHOWERS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR LEE SIDE SFC TROFFING AND INCREASED
WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS TONIGHT. GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT SPLITTING NATURE OF PACIFIC TROF AS IT MOVES INLAND AND
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SW MAY KEEP GUSTS A BIT UNDER 58
MPH...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL END THE GAP FLOW AS WE TRANSITION TO MIXED WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING IN WX STORY FOR INCREASED WINDS AT
LIVINGSTON AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF 50+ MPH GUSTS.

PACIFIC TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN OUR
EAST AWAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE. SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAY PER THE PACIFIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CAME WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS THIS WEEKEND.
THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
UP AROUND THE FOOTHILLS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET
UP A GAP FLOW EVENT FROM LIVINGSTON TO HARLOWTON. WINDS GUST OVER
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS. SATURDAY NIGHT THIS
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A POST FRONT WIND EVENT WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH ACROSS MOST SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THE DIFFERENCES WERE
SMALL...HAVE LEFT WIND SPEEDS ALONE.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THE PRECIP WILL BE STRONG WEST WINDS CREATING STRONG
DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. THIS INFLUENCE WILL
MAINLY BE IN WESTERN ZONES AND COULD PUSH AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...SO THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY.

FOLLOWING THE TROUGH...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN. WITH CONTINUE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WILL BE WARM. THERE IS
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. GIVEN THE VERY LARGE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER THAN FORECASTED. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITION WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS AROUND KLVM TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH LIKELY. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 022/041 028/045 032/048 031/043 029/051 033/055
    1/B 01/N    11/N    01/N    21/N    11/N    11/N
LVM 033 023/037 024/039 029/043 027/039 028/046 032/049
    1/N 13/W    31/N    12/W    31/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 037 014/042 025/045 026/048 027/042 022/048 026/052
    1/B 01/E    11/B    01/B    21/N    11/N    11/B
MLS 036 015/041 025/045 029/050 028/041 025/042 027/046
    1/B 02/W    20/B    01/N    41/N    11/N    11/N
4BQ 034 013/040 025/043 025/048 027/039 023/042 026/048
    2/J 02/W    21/B    01/B    31/N    11/N    11/N
BHK 032 011/037 024/041 026/049 027/037 021/037 024/042
    2/J 01/E    21/B    01/N    31/N    11/N    11/N
SHR 031 007/037 021/041 022/047 024/038 021/045 025/051
    2/J 01/E    11/B    03/W    31/N    12/W    11/N

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030415
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
915 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS HAS
DECREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR. PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES
OVER THE ABSAROKAS/BEARTOOTHS...AS WELL AS AROUND MUSSELSHELL
COUNTY. I SUSPECT THERE IS SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVERGENCE GOING
ON AROUND MUSSELSHELL COUNTY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS KEEPS AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW GOING IN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS NOT HANDLING
LIGHT SNOW AROUND ROUNDUP. NO FEATURES OTHER THAN INSTABILITY TO
HANG MY HAT ON OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ADJUST POPS TO CURRENT TRENDS.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED OVER ALL THE PLAINS EXCEPT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
AROUND ROUNDUP AND BULL MOUNTAINS. LIKELY POPS OVER HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH IMPACT STORM
THAT EXITS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS THAT
IMPACTED FAR SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THAT STORM HAVE DECREASED. OUR REGION IS
LEFT UNDER RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THESE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED...BUT FOR THOSE IMPACTED BY ONE...SOME
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THIS IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. PATTERN BECOMES MORE
WIND FAVORABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...ENHANCING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE
FAVORABLE GAP WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON WOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW THAT
60 MPH THRESHOLD...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS TO SEE ANY SIGNS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...
WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. THE INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW
COVER WILL WARM TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED EURO AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT... WHICH CLEARS THE REGION BY FRI
AFTERNOON... LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA DRY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. RECENT RUNS SUGGEST A DRYING
TREND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE... BUT LEAVING SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE MTNS AND SLIGHT POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER RUNS. GFS STILL HINTS AT QPF FAR OUT INTO THE
PLAINS LATE INTO THE PERIOD WITHIN THE N-NW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND HAVE THUS MADE
EFFORTS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS SCENARIO FOR POPS AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SAT PRODUCING
STRONG GAP FLOW AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE BIG TIMBER/HARLOWTON
AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL ONCE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REORIENTS AND GAP FLOW NEAR LIVINGSTON BEGINS TO DECREASE. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM LATE SAT THROUGH SUN... WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT PASSES.

A GENERAL WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS AND EURO STILL DISAGREE OVER THE PLACEMENT OF COLDER AIR
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. HAVE THUS
GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...AND NORTHERN WYOMING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GILSTAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/035 022/040 027/045 032/048 031/044 027/046 031/052
    21/B    00/N    11/N    01/N    11/N    01/N    21/N
LVM 014/031 021/037 023/039 029/043 027/040 025/044 030/047
    21/N    12/J    31/N    12/W    21/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 017/036 015/042 024/045 026/048 027/043 022/044 025/050
    31/B    00/E    11/B    11/B    12/W    01/N    21/B
MLS 018/036 015/041 026/045 030/050 029/042 023/039 022/044
    21/B    01/E    11/B    11/B    21/N    11/N    11/N
4BQ 017/034 014/040 024/043 025/048 027/041 021/038 022/045
    22/J    01/B    11/B    00/B    11/N    12/J    21/B
BHK 017/032 012/037 024/041 027/049 028/038 019/034 017/040
    22/J    01/B    11/B    01/N    22/J    11/N    11/N
SHR 011/031 008/037 021/041 022/047 024/039 021/041 024/048
    32/J    00/E    21/B    10/B    12/W    12/J    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030119
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
619 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
300MB TROUGH AXIS AND UNUSUAL INSTABILITY HAS LEAD TO ANOTHER
EVENING OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. UPDATED
POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. BRIEF INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY SLICK ROADS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH IMPACT STORM
THAT EXITS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS THAT
IMPACTED FAR SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THAT STORM HAVE DECREASED. OUR REGION IS
LEFT UNDER RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THESE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED...BUT FOR THOSE IMPACTED BY ONE...SOME
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THIS IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. PATTERN BECOMES MORE
WIND FAVORABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...ENHANCING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE
FAVORABLE GAP WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON WOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW THAT
60 MPH THRESHOLD...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS TO SEE ANY SIGNS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...
WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. THE INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW
COVER WILL WARM TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED EURO AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT... WHICH CLEARS THE REGION BY FRI
AFTERNOON... LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA DRY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. RECENT RUNS SUGGEST A DRYING
TREND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE... BUT LEAVING SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE MTNS AND SLIGHT POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER RUNS. GFS STILL HINTS AT QPF FAR OUT INTO THE
PLAINS LATE INTO THE PERIOD WITHIN THE N-NW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND HAVE THUS MADE
EFFORTS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS SCENARIO FOR POPS AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SAT PRODUCING
STRONG GAP FLOW AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE BIG TIMBER/HARLOWTON
AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL ONCE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REORIENTS AND GAP FLOW NEAR LIVINGSTON BEGINS TO DECREASE. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM LATE SAT THROUGH SUN... WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT PASSES.

A GENERAL WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS AND EURO STILL DISAGREE OVER THE PLACEMENT OF COLDER AIR
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. HAVE THUS
GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...AND NORTHERN WYOMING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GILSTAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/035 022/040 027/045 032/048 031/044 027/046 031/052
    21/B    00/N    11/N    01/N    11/N    01/N    21/N
LVM 014/031 021/037 023/039 029/043 027/040 025/044 030/047
    21/N    12/J    31/N    12/W    21/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 017/036 015/042 024/045 026/048 027/043 022/044 025/050
    61/B    00/E    11/B    11/B    12/W    01/N    21/B
MLS 018/036 015/041 026/045 030/050 029/042 023/039 022/044
    21/B    01/E    11/B    11/B    21/N    11/N    11/N
4BQ 017/034 014/040 024/043 025/048 027/041 021/038 022/045
    32/J    01/B    11/B    00/B    11/N    12/J    21/B
BHK 017/032 012/037 024/041 027/049 028/038 019/034 017/040
    32/J    01/B    11/B    01/N    22/J    11/N    11/N
SHR 011/031 008/037 021/041 022/047 024/039 021/041 024/048
    32/J    00/E    21/B    10/B    12/W    12/J    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030119
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
619 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
300MB TROUGH AXIS AND UNUSUAL INSTABILITY HAS LEAD TO ANOTHER
EVENING OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. UPDATED
POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. BRIEF INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY SLICK ROADS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH IMPACT STORM
THAT EXITS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS THAT
IMPACTED FAR SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THAT STORM HAVE DECREASED. OUR REGION IS
LEFT UNDER RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THESE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED...BUT FOR THOSE IMPACTED BY ONE...SOME
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THIS IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. PATTERN BECOMES MORE
WIND FAVORABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...ENHANCING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE
FAVORABLE GAP WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON WOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW THAT
60 MPH THRESHOLD...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS TO SEE ANY SIGNS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...
WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. THE INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW
COVER WILL WARM TEMPERATURES...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED EURO AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT... WHICH CLEARS THE REGION BY FRI
AFTERNOON... LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA DRY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. RECENT RUNS SUGGEST A DRYING
TREND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE... BUT LEAVING SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE MTNS AND SLIGHT POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER RUNS. GFS STILL HINTS AT QPF FAR OUT INTO THE
PLAINS LATE INTO THE PERIOD WITHIN THE N-NW FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS AND HAVE THUS MADE
EFFORTS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS SCENARIO FOR POPS AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SAT PRODUCING
STRONG GAP FLOW AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE. GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE BIG TIMBER/HARLOWTON
AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL ONCE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REORIENTS AND GAP FLOW NEAR LIVINGSTON BEGINS TO DECREASE. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION FROM LATE SAT THROUGH SUN... WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT PASSES.

A GENERAL WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS AND EURO STILL DISAGREE OVER THE PLACEMENT OF COLDER AIR
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. HAVE THUS
GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES. MROWELL

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA...AND NORTHERN WYOMING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GILSTAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/035 022/040 027/045 032/048 031/044 027/046 031/052
    21/B    00/N    11/N    01/N    11/N    01/N    21/N
LVM 014/031 021/037 023/039 029/043 027/040 025/044 030/047
    21/N    12/J    31/N    12/W    21/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 017/036 015/042 024/045 026/048 027/043 022/044 025/050
    61/B    00/E    11/B    11/B    12/W    01/N    21/B
MLS 018/036 015/041 026/045 030/050 029/042 023/039 022/044
    21/B    01/E    11/B    11/B    21/N    11/N    11/N
4BQ 017/034 014/040 024/043 025/048 027/041 021/038 022/045
    32/J    01/B    11/B    00/B    11/N    12/J    21/B
BHK 017/032 012/037 024/041 027/049 028/038 019/034 017/040
    32/J    01/B    11/B    01/N    22/J    11/N    11/N
SHR 011/031 008/037 021/041 022/047 024/039 021/041 024/048
    32/J    00/E    21/B    10/B    12/W    12/J    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





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