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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211630
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
930 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH.
MOISTURE PRETTY LIMITED WITH THESE WAVES AND SO THERE IS NOT MUCH
HAPPENING ON AREA RADARS. LOWERED POPS A LITTLE MORE FOR TODAY.
RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEST AS STARTING OUT PRETTY WARM AND
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY...SHOULD APPROACH HIGHS OF
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE WEST TODAY AND THIS
HANDLED WELL. WINDS WILL GET EVEN STRONGER TONIGHT AT LIVINGSTON
AND BIG TIMBER AND WILL ADDRESS THAT ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS
THE MODELS CONTIUE TO FLOW IN. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS MORNING. GREATEST
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST...INCLUDING
LIVINGSTON...NYE...BIG TIMBER...AND HARLOWTON. MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK ON WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY...SHRINKING WINDOW
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND LOWERING PEAK FORECAST WINDS. BEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AROUND 12Z...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC WAVE. DID
PARE BACK WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM 03-09Z TONIGHT AND AFTER 15Z AS
WELL. OTHERWISE PEAK WIND FORECASTS OF GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH IN
LIVINGSTON AND NYE...AND UP TO 50 MPH FROM BIG TIMBER TO
HARLOWTON STILL APPEAR IN THE BALLPARK. CHOSE NOT TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BASED ON MARGINAL GUIDANCE. CONTINUED
ATTENTION WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER SHIFTS.

THE PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
SNOW SHOWERS TO AREA MOUNTAINS...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WESTERN MOUNTAIN FACES COULD SEE SOME
BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
EASTERN SLOPE ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS ANY STRONG SHOWER
POTENTIAL INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED POPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS DOWNSLOPE SHOULD BE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CANNOT DISCOUNT POTENTIAL FOR
MIX OF PRECIP. DID RAISE POPS IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS SLIGHTLY...AS
WELL AS SNOW AMOUNTS HOWEVER.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM...AND RELATIVELY WARM
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR INTO
THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIP IN THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
START AS RAIN AND TURN TO SNOW LATER ON. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

BIG COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
DRIVEN BY AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
FRONT DOES WASH OUT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA
AS DOWNSLOPE PLAYS A ROLE. OTHER FACTOR IS THAT THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT REAL DEEP AND ITS MORE DRIVEN BY THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE VERSUS A TAP OF ARCTIC AIR.
THIS IS REFLECTED ON MONDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY 3 TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIMITED BOTH DAYS AND FAVORS EITHER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR OROGRAPHIC MECHANISMS.

TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MAKE A PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC WEST BUT MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST AND HOW
STRONG THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME. THE PATTERN HINTS AT AN ALIGNMENT
FOR A SNOW MAKER AS THE PATTERN ALLOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO MONTANA AND
WYOMING. THIS IS THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION AND WAS THE 11/20 00Z
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE EC HAS BROUGHT A STRONGER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION THE PAST TWO RUNS. THIS IS A DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION. A
COUPLE OF BIG PICTURE FEATURES BEAR WATCHING. OVER THE ATLANTIC A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CONSISTENTLY PROJECTED SO THIS WILL
TREND TOWARDS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. BUT THE
MODELS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN ABOUT ITS IMPACTS OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANT NOISE IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. WILL REINFORCE THE MESSAGE DAY SHIFT STATED THAT
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THESE LATER PERIODS.

BOTTOM LINE IS WATCHING WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY TO SEE IF IT
COULD PRODUCE A LOT OF SNOW ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A
COMPROMISE. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

LINGERING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KMLS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.
GUSTIEST WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS. EXPECT SW GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT KLVM TODAY
INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUD. THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
SOME SNOW AND WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED LATE TONIGHT. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046 029/048 030/040 025/038 024/038 021/031 010/025
    0/B 12/W    21/N    22/J    23/J    45/J    32/J
LVM 048 030/045 024/035 021/033 019/034 023/032 009/024
    0/N 14/W    22/J    32/J    24/J    44/W    32/J
HDN 046 022/049 026/041 020/038 019/038 018/031 007/025
    0/B 02/W    21/N    22/J    23/J    34/J    31/B
MLS 043 021/041 025/033 015/030 015/034 015/025 003/022
    0/U 02/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    23/J    21/B
4BQ 045 021/044 026/035 018/031 015/035 017/028 007/021
    0/B 02/W    22/J    11/B    23/J    24/J    31/B
BHK 042 020/040 024/029 011/023 013/031 012/021 000/019
    0/B 02/W    23/J    21/N    12/J    23/J    21/B
SHR 045 021/045 022/037 017/034 015/035 018/033 008/025
    0/U 03/W    31/N    22/J    23/J    44/W    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211630
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
930 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH.
MOISTURE PRETTY LIMITED WITH THESE WAVES AND SO THERE IS NOT MUCH
HAPPENING ON AREA RADARS. LOWERED POPS A LITTLE MORE FOR TODAY.
RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEST AS STARTING OUT PRETTY WARM AND
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY...SHOULD APPROACH HIGHS OF
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE WEST TODAY AND THIS
HANDLED WELL. WINDS WILL GET EVEN STRONGER TONIGHT AT LIVINGSTON
AND BIG TIMBER AND WILL ADDRESS THAT ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS
THE MODELS CONTIUE TO FLOW IN. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS MORNING. GREATEST
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST...INCLUDING
LIVINGSTON...NYE...BIG TIMBER...AND HARLOWTON. MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK ON WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY...SHRINKING WINDOW
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND LOWERING PEAK FORECAST WINDS. BEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AROUND 12Z...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC WAVE. DID
PARE BACK WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM 03-09Z TONIGHT AND AFTER 15Z AS
WELL. OTHERWISE PEAK WIND FORECASTS OF GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH IN
LIVINGSTON AND NYE...AND UP TO 50 MPH FROM BIG TIMBER TO
HARLOWTON STILL APPEAR IN THE BALLPARK. CHOSE NOT TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BASED ON MARGINAL GUIDANCE. CONTINUED
ATTENTION WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER SHIFTS.

THE PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
SNOW SHOWERS TO AREA MOUNTAINS...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WESTERN MOUNTAIN FACES COULD SEE SOME
BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
EASTERN SLOPE ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS ANY STRONG SHOWER
POTENTIAL INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED POPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS DOWNSLOPE SHOULD BE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CANNOT DISCOUNT POTENTIAL FOR
MIX OF PRECIP. DID RAISE POPS IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS SLIGHTLY...AS
WELL AS SNOW AMOUNTS HOWEVER.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM...AND RELATIVELY WARM
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR INTO
THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIP IN THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
START AS RAIN AND TURN TO SNOW LATER ON. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

BIG COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
DRIVEN BY AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
FRONT DOES WASH OUT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA
AS DOWNSLOPE PLAYS A ROLE. OTHER FACTOR IS THAT THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT REAL DEEP AND ITS MORE DRIVEN BY THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE VERSUS A TAP OF ARCTIC AIR.
THIS IS REFLECTED ON MONDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY 3 TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIMITED BOTH DAYS AND FAVORS EITHER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR OROGRAPHIC MECHANISMS.

TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MAKE A PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC WEST BUT MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST AND HOW
STRONG THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME. THE PATTERN HINTS AT AN ALIGNMENT
FOR A SNOW MAKER AS THE PATTERN ALLOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO MONTANA AND
WYOMING. THIS IS THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION AND WAS THE 11/20 00Z
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE EC HAS BROUGHT A STRONGER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION THE PAST TWO RUNS. THIS IS A DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION. A
COUPLE OF BIG PICTURE FEATURES BEAR WATCHING. OVER THE ATLANTIC A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CONSISTENTLY PROJECTED SO THIS WILL
TREND TOWARDS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. BUT THE
MODELS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN ABOUT ITS IMPACTS OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANT NOISE IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. WILL REINFORCE THE MESSAGE DAY SHIFT STATED THAT
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THESE LATER PERIODS.

BOTTOM LINE IS WATCHING WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY TO SEE IF IT
COULD PRODUCE A LOT OF SNOW ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A
COMPROMISE. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

LINGERING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KMLS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.
GUSTIEST WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS. EXPECT SW GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT KLVM TODAY
INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUD. THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
SOME SNOW AND WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED LATE TONIGHT. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046 029/048 030/040 025/038 024/038 021/031 010/025
    0/B 12/W    21/N    22/J    23/J    45/J    32/J
LVM 048 030/045 024/035 021/033 019/034 023/032 009/024
    0/N 14/W    22/J    32/J    24/J    44/W    32/J
HDN 046 022/049 026/041 020/038 019/038 018/031 007/025
    0/B 02/W    21/N    22/J    23/J    34/J    31/B
MLS 043 021/041 025/033 015/030 015/034 015/025 003/022
    0/U 02/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    23/J    21/B
4BQ 045 021/044 026/035 018/031 015/035 017/028 007/021
    0/B 02/W    22/J    11/B    23/J    24/J    31/B
BHK 042 020/040 024/029 011/023 013/031 012/021 000/019
    0/B 02/W    23/J    21/N    12/J    23/J    21/B
SHR 045 021/045 022/037 017/034 015/035 018/033 008/025
    0/U 03/W    31/N    22/J    23/J    44/W    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211001
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
301 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS MORNING. GREATEST
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST...INCLUDING
LIVINGSTON...NYE...BIG TIMBER...AND HARLOWTON. MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK ON WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY...SHRINKING WINDOW
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND LOWERING PEAK FORECAST WINDS. BEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AROUND 12Z...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC WAVE. DID
PARE BACK WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM 03-09Z TONIGHT AND AFTER 15Z AS
WELL. OTHERWISE PEAK WIND FORECASTS OF GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH IN
LIVINGSTON AND NYE...AND UP TO 50 MPH FROM BIG TIMBER TO
HARLOWTON STILL APPEAR IN THE BALLPARK. CHOSE NOT TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BASED ON MARGINAL GUIDANCE. CONTINUED
ATTENTION WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER SHIFTS.

THE PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
SNOW SHOWERS TO AREA MOUNTAINS...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WESTERN MOUNTAIN FACES COULD SEE SOME
BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
EASTERN SLOPE ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS ANY STRONG SHOWER
POTENTIAL INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED POPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS DOWNSLOPE SHOULD BE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CANNOT DISCOUNT POTENTIAL FOR
MIX OF PRECIP. DID RAISE POPS IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS SLIGHTLY...AS
WELL AS SNOW AMOUNTS HOWEVER.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM...AND RELATIVELY WARM
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR INTO
THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIP IN THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
START AS RAIN AND TURN TO SNOW LATER ON. AAG


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

BIG COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
DRIVEN BY AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
FRONT DOES WASH OUT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA
AS DOWNSLOPE PLAYS A ROLE. OTHER FACTOR IS THAT THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT REAL DEEP AND ITS MORE DRIVEN BY THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE VERSUS A TAP OF ARCTIC AIR.
THIS IS REFLECTED ON MONDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY 3 TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIMITED BOTH DAYS AND FAVORS EITHER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR OROGRAPHIC MECHANISMS.

TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MAKE A PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC WEST BUT MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST AND HOW
STRONG THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME. THE PATTERN HINTS AT AN ALIGNMENT
FOR A SNOW MAKER AS THE PATTERN ALLOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO MONTANA AND
WYOMING. THIS IS THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION AND WAS THE 11/20 00Z
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE EC HAS BROUGHT A STRONGER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION THE PAST TWO RUNS. THIS IS A DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION. A
COUPLE OF BIG PICTURE FEATURES BEAR WATCHING. OVER THE ATLANTIC A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CONSISTENTLY PROJECTED SO THIS WILL
TREND TOWARDS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. BUT THE
MODELS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN ABOUT ITS IMPACTS OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANT NOISE IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. WILL REINFORCE THE MESSAGE DAY SHIFT STATED THAT
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THESE LATER PERIODS.

BOTTOM LINE IS WATCHING WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY TO SEE IF IT
COULD PRODUCE A LOT OF SNOW ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A
COMPROMISE. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

BIGGEST IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE LOW LEVEL POLAR AIR IS UNDERCUTTING
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT KBIL AND KLVM WILL SPREAD TO KSHR AND KMLS LATER
THIS MORNING. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046 029/048 030/040 025/038 024/038 021/031 010/025
    0/B 12/W    21/N    22/J    23/J    45/J    32/J
LVM 044 030/045 024/035 021/033 019/034 023/032 009/024
    0/N 14/W    22/J    32/J    24/J    44/W    32/J
HDN 046 022/049 026/041 020/038 019/038 018/031 007/025
    0/B 02/W    21/N    22/J    23/J    34/J    31/B
MLS 043 021/041 025/033 015/030 015/034 015/025 003/022
    0/B 02/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    23/J    21/B
4BQ 045 021/044 026/035 018/031 015/035 017/028 007/021
    0/B 02/W    22/J    11/B    23/J    24/J    31/B
BHK 042 020/040 024/029 011/023 013/031 012/021 000/019
    0/B 02/W    23/J    21/N    12/J    23/J    21/B
SHR 045 021/045 022/037 017/034 015/035 018/033 008/025
    0/U 03/W    31/N    22/J    23/J    44/W    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 211001
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
301 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS MORNING. GREATEST
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST...INCLUDING
LIVINGSTON...NYE...BIG TIMBER...AND HARLOWTON. MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK ON WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY...SHRINKING WINDOW
FOR STRONG WINDS...AND LOWERING PEAK FORECAST WINDS. BEST
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AROUND 12Z...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC WAVE. DID
PARE BACK WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM 03-09Z TONIGHT AND AFTER 15Z AS
WELL. OTHERWISE PEAK WIND FORECASTS OF GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH IN
LIVINGSTON AND NYE...AND UP TO 50 MPH FROM BIG TIMBER TO
HARLOWTON STILL APPEAR IN THE BALLPARK. CHOSE NOT TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BASED ON MARGINAL GUIDANCE. CONTINUED
ATTENTION WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER SHIFTS.

THE PACIFIC TROF WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
SNOW SHOWERS TO AREA MOUNTAINS...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WESTERN MOUNTAIN FACES COULD SEE SOME
BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
EASTERN SLOPE ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS ANY STRONG SHOWER
POTENTIAL INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH INHERITED POPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS DOWNSLOPE SHOULD BE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CANNOT DISCOUNT POTENTIAL FOR
MIX OF PRECIP. DID RAISE POPS IN WESTERN MOUNTAINS SLIGHTLY...AS
WELL AS SNOW AMOUNTS HOWEVER.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM...AND RELATIVELY WARM
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR INTO
THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIP IN THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
START AS RAIN AND TURN TO SNOW LATER ON. AAG


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

BIG COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
DRIVEN BY AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
FRONT DOES WASH OUT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA
AS DOWNSLOPE PLAYS A ROLE. OTHER FACTOR IS THAT THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT REAL DEEP AND ITS MORE DRIVEN BY THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE VERSUS A TAP OF ARCTIC AIR.
THIS IS REFLECTED ON MONDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY 3 TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIMITED BOTH DAYS AND FAVORS EITHER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR OROGRAPHIC MECHANISMS.

TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MAKE A PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC WEST BUT MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST AND HOW
STRONG THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME. THE PATTERN HINTS AT AN ALIGNMENT
FOR A SNOW MAKER AS THE PATTERN ALLOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE PUSHES COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO MONTANA AND
WYOMING. THIS IS THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION AND WAS THE 11/20 00Z
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE EC HAS BROUGHT A STRONGER RIDGE INTO THE
REGION THE PAST TWO RUNS. THIS IS A DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION. A
COUPLE OF BIG PICTURE FEATURES BEAR WATCHING. OVER THE ATLANTIC A
MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CONSISTENTLY PROJECTED SO THIS WILL
TREND TOWARDS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. BUT THE
MODELS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN ABOUT ITS IMPACTS OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANT NOISE IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. WILL REINFORCE THE MESSAGE DAY SHIFT STATED THAT
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY SIGNIFICANT FOR THESE LATER PERIODS.

BOTTOM LINE IS WATCHING WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY TO SEE IF IT
COULD PRODUCE A LOT OF SNOW ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A
COMPROMISE. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

BIGGEST IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE LOW LEVEL POLAR AIR IS UNDERCUTTING
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT KBIL AND KLVM WILL SPREAD TO KSHR AND KMLS LATER
THIS MORNING. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046 029/048 030/040 025/038 024/038 021/031 010/025
    0/B 12/W    21/N    22/J    23/J    45/J    32/J
LVM 044 030/045 024/035 021/033 019/034 023/032 009/024
    0/N 14/W    22/J    32/J    24/J    44/W    32/J
HDN 046 022/049 026/041 020/038 019/038 018/031 007/025
    0/B 02/W    21/N    22/J    23/J    34/J    31/B
MLS 043 021/041 025/033 015/030 015/034 015/025 003/022
    0/B 02/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    23/J    21/B
4BQ 045 021/044 026/035 018/031 015/035 017/028 007/021
    0/B 02/W    22/J    11/B    23/J    24/J    31/B
BHK 042 020/040 024/029 011/023 013/031 012/021 000/019
    0/B 02/W    23/J    21/N    12/J    23/J    21/B
SHR 045 021/045 022/037 017/034 015/035 018/033 008/025
    0/U 03/W    31/N    22/J    23/J    44/W    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210324
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
824 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES WHICH WILL NOT AFFECT THE OVERALL GRIDS. WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS AT THE GAP FLOW AREAS...LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SN0W SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS
TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOME MIXING GOING AND CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
ON TRACK WITH 00Z GUIDANCE. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE PULLS OUT AND A WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM...MAYBE SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WIND EVENT FOR LIVINGSTON
AND NYE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SETUP FOR A GOOD
GAP WIND EVENT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT...BASED ON
GUIDANCE...AND AM LEANING TOWARDS A HIGHER END ADVISORY EVENT WITH
GUSTS 65 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE ALSO HAS WINDS INCREASING
FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS AT LIVINGSTON OR NYE...BUT GUSTS
COULD BE UP TO 50 MPH.

OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE
SEASONAL...AND HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE 40S IN FOR HIGHS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE THE OPERATIVE MODE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST-
ERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. WE ARE RATHER CONFIDENT IN THAT
SCENARIO AND WE BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER
IN THAT TIME FRAME IS RELATIVELY LOW.

HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF DRAMATICALLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AND IT/S BELOW-AVERAGE EVEN RELATIVE TO A NORMALLY-
MODEST CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR FIVE TO SEVEN DAY FORECASTS. THE ECMWF
HAS STAYED THE COURSE IN ADVERTISING A COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING ARCTIC CHILL ALL THE
WAY INTO THANKSGIVING. THE GFS HAD BEEN A LESS-EXTREME...BUT STILL
COOL SOLUTION WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT ITS NEW
12 UTC RUN MADE A DRAMATIC SWITCH IN SHOWING A WELL-FORMED MIDDLE-
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THAT SAME TIME
FRAME. THE DIFFERENCE IN STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS ABOUT AS
LARGE AS IT CAN GET...WITH THE 12 UTC GFS-BASED MOS /MEX/ HAVING A
HIGH OF 59 F AT BILLINGS ON THANKSGIVING WHILE THE 00 UTC ECMWF ON
THE SAME DAY CALLS FOR A HIGH OF 24 F. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES
THE RESPONSIBLE ROUTE OF CALLING FOR A MIDDLE GROUND OF BOTH IDEAS
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING PERIOD FOR NOW. THERE/S
CERTAINLY SOME SUPPORT FOR THE MORE EXTREME ECMWF IDEA BEING WRONG
THOUGH BECAUSE 1/ IT REMAINS COLDER THAN THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND 2/ THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL INTO
THE POSITIVE RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH...AND WE OFTEN
NEED THAT TO BE NEGATIVE FOR A DEEP OR LONG-LIVED ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
INTERESTINGLY...THE NEW 13 KM /PARALLEL/ GFS IS VERY WARM LIKE THE
OPERATIONAL VERSION...AND IT ACTUALLY WENT OVER TO A WARM SOLUTION
AS EARLY AS LAST NIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOCALIZED
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...LLWS IS
EXPECTED E OF KBIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WSW
SURFACE WINDS OVER KLVM THROUGH FRI. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/046 029/048 030/041 025/038 023/038 022/034 014/032
    00/B    12/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/W    31/B
LVM 028/044 030/045 024/035 021/033 019/034 022/032 014/029
    00/N    14/W    22/J    32/J    34/J    54/W    31/N
HDN 022/046 022/049 026/041 020/038 019/038 018/034 010/031
    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/J    31/B
MLS 021/043 021/041 025/034 015/030 014/034 015/027 007/028
    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    23/J    21/B
4BQ 020/045 021/044 026/036 017/031 015/034 017/030 010/027
    00/B    02/W    22/J    22/J    23/J    33/J    31/B
BHK 020/042 020/040 024/030 012/023 012/030 012/022 004/024
    00/B    02/W    23/J    22/J    22/J    22/J    21/B
SHR 023/045 021/045 022/037 017/034 015/035 017/033 011/030
    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    44/J    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210324
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
824 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES WHICH WILL NOT AFFECT THE OVERALL GRIDS. WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS AT THE GAP FLOW AREAS...LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SN0W SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS
TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOME MIXING GOING AND CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
ON TRACK WITH 00Z GUIDANCE. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE PULLS OUT AND A WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM...MAYBE SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WIND EVENT FOR LIVINGSTON
AND NYE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SETUP FOR A GOOD
GAP WIND EVENT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT...BASED ON
GUIDANCE...AND AM LEANING TOWARDS A HIGHER END ADVISORY EVENT WITH
GUSTS 65 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE ALSO HAS WINDS INCREASING
FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS AT LIVINGSTON OR NYE...BUT GUSTS
COULD BE UP TO 50 MPH.

OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE
SEASONAL...AND HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE 40S IN FOR HIGHS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE THE OPERATIVE MODE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST-
ERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. WE ARE RATHER CONFIDENT IN THAT
SCENARIO AND WE BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER
IN THAT TIME FRAME IS RELATIVELY LOW.

HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF DRAMATICALLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AND IT/S BELOW-AVERAGE EVEN RELATIVE TO A NORMALLY-
MODEST CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR FIVE TO SEVEN DAY FORECASTS. THE ECMWF
HAS STAYED THE COURSE IN ADVERTISING A COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING ARCTIC CHILL ALL THE
WAY INTO THANKSGIVING. THE GFS HAD BEEN A LESS-EXTREME...BUT STILL
COOL SOLUTION WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT ITS NEW
12 UTC RUN MADE A DRAMATIC SWITCH IN SHOWING A WELL-FORMED MIDDLE-
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THAT SAME TIME
FRAME. THE DIFFERENCE IN STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS ABOUT AS
LARGE AS IT CAN GET...WITH THE 12 UTC GFS-BASED MOS /MEX/ HAVING A
HIGH OF 59 F AT BILLINGS ON THANKSGIVING WHILE THE 00 UTC ECMWF ON
THE SAME DAY CALLS FOR A HIGH OF 24 F. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES
THE RESPONSIBLE ROUTE OF CALLING FOR A MIDDLE GROUND OF BOTH IDEAS
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING PERIOD FOR NOW. THERE/S
CERTAINLY SOME SUPPORT FOR THE MORE EXTREME ECMWF IDEA BEING WRONG
THOUGH BECAUSE 1/ IT REMAINS COLDER THAN THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND 2/ THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL INTO
THE POSITIVE RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH...AND WE OFTEN
NEED THAT TO BE NEGATIVE FOR A DEEP OR LONG-LIVED ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
INTERESTINGLY...THE NEW 13 KM /PARALLEL/ GFS IS VERY WARM LIKE THE
OPERATIONAL VERSION...AND IT ACTUALLY WENT OVER TO A WARM SOLUTION
AS EARLY AS LAST NIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOCALIZED
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...LLWS IS
EXPECTED E OF KBIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WSW
SURFACE WINDS OVER KLVM THROUGH FRI. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/046 029/048 030/041 025/038 023/038 022/034 014/032
    00/B    12/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/W    31/B
LVM 028/044 030/045 024/035 021/033 019/034 022/032 014/029
    00/N    14/W    22/J    32/J    34/J    54/W    31/N
HDN 022/046 022/049 026/041 020/038 019/038 018/034 010/031
    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/J    31/B
MLS 021/043 021/041 025/034 015/030 014/034 015/027 007/028
    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    23/J    21/B
4BQ 020/045 021/044 026/036 017/031 015/034 017/030 010/027
    00/B    02/W    22/J    22/J    23/J    33/J    31/B
BHK 020/042 020/040 024/030 012/023 012/030 012/022 004/024
    00/B    02/W    23/J    22/J    22/J    22/J    21/B
SHR 023/045 021/045 022/037 017/034 015/035 017/033 011/030
    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    44/J    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210324
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
824 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES WHICH WILL NOT AFFECT THE OVERALL GRIDS. WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS AT THE GAP FLOW AREAS...LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SN0W SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS
TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOME MIXING GOING AND CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
ON TRACK WITH 00Z GUIDANCE. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE PULLS OUT AND A WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM...MAYBE SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WIND EVENT FOR LIVINGSTON
AND NYE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SETUP FOR A GOOD
GAP WIND EVENT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT...BASED ON
GUIDANCE...AND AM LEANING TOWARDS A HIGHER END ADVISORY EVENT WITH
GUSTS 65 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE ALSO HAS WINDS INCREASING
FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS AT LIVINGSTON OR NYE...BUT GUSTS
COULD BE UP TO 50 MPH.

OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE
SEASONAL...AND HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE 40S IN FOR HIGHS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE THE OPERATIVE MODE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST-
ERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. WE ARE RATHER CONFIDENT IN THAT
SCENARIO AND WE BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER
IN THAT TIME FRAME IS RELATIVELY LOW.

HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF DRAMATICALLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AND IT/S BELOW-AVERAGE EVEN RELATIVE TO A NORMALLY-
MODEST CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR FIVE TO SEVEN DAY FORECASTS. THE ECMWF
HAS STAYED THE COURSE IN ADVERTISING A COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING ARCTIC CHILL ALL THE
WAY INTO THANKSGIVING. THE GFS HAD BEEN A LESS-EXTREME...BUT STILL
COOL SOLUTION WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT ITS NEW
12 UTC RUN MADE A DRAMATIC SWITCH IN SHOWING A WELL-FORMED MIDDLE-
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THAT SAME TIME
FRAME. THE DIFFERENCE IN STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS ABOUT AS
LARGE AS IT CAN GET...WITH THE 12 UTC GFS-BASED MOS /MEX/ HAVING A
HIGH OF 59 F AT BILLINGS ON THANKSGIVING WHILE THE 00 UTC ECMWF ON
THE SAME DAY CALLS FOR A HIGH OF 24 F. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES
THE RESPONSIBLE ROUTE OF CALLING FOR A MIDDLE GROUND OF BOTH IDEAS
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING PERIOD FOR NOW. THERE/S
CERTAINLY SOME SUPPORT FOR THE MORE EXTREME ECMWF IDEA BEING WRONG
THOUGH BECAUSE 1/ IT REMAINS COLDER THAN THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND 2/ THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL INTO
THE POSITIVE RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH...AND WE OFTEN
NEED THAT TO BE NEGATIVE FOR A DEEP OR LONG-LIVED ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
INTERESTINGLY...THE NEW 13 KM /PARALLEL/ GFS IS VERY WARM LIKE THE
OPERATIONAL VERSION...AND IT ACTUALLY WENT OVER TO A WARM SOLUTION
AS EARLY AS LAST NIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOCALIZED
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...LLWS IS
EXPECTED E OF KBIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WSW
SURFACE WINDS OVER KLVM THROUGH FRI. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/046 029/048 030/041 025/038 023/038 022/034 014/032
    00/B    12/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/W    31/B
LVM 028/044 030/045 024/035 021/033 019/034 022/032 014/029
    00/N    14/W    22/J    32/J    34/J    54/W    31/N
HDN 022/046 022/049 026/041 020/038 019/038 018/034 010/031
    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/J    31/B
MLS 021/043 021/041 025/034 015/030 014/034 015/027 007/028
    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    23/J    21/B
4BQ 020/045 021/044 026/036 017/031 015/034 017/030 010/027
    00/B    02/W    22/J    22/J    23/J    33/J    31/B
BHK 020/042 020/040 024/030 012/023 012/030 012/022 004/024
    00/B    02/W    23/J    22/J    22/J    22/J    21/B
SHR 023/045 021/045 022/037 017/034 015/035 017/033 011/030
    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    44/J    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210324
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
824 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES WHICH WILL NOT AFFECT THE OVERALL GRIDS. WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS AT THE GAP FLOW AREAS...LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OTHER THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SN0W SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS
TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOME MIXING GOING AND CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
ON TRACK WITH 00Z GUIDANCE. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE PULLS OUT AND A WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM...MAYBE SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WIND EVENT FOR LIVINGSTON
AND NYE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SETUP FOR A GOOD
GAP WIND EVENT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT...BASED ON
GUIDANCE...AND AM LEANING TOWARDS A HIGHER END ADVISORY EVENT WITH
GUSTS 65 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE ALSO HAS WINDS INCREASING
FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS AT LIVINGSTON OR NYE...BUT GUSTS
COULD BE UP TO 50 MPH.

OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE
SEASONAL...AND HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE 40S IN FOR HIGHS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE THE OPERATIVE MODE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST-
ERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. WE ARE RATHER CONFIDENT IN THAT
SCENARIO AND WE BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER
IN THAT TIME FRAME IS RELATIVELY LOW.

HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF DRAMATICALLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AND IT/S BELOW-AVERAGE EVEN RELATIVE TO A NORMALLY-
MODEST CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR FIVE TO SEVEN DAY FORECASTS. THE ECMWF
HAS STAYED THE COURSE IN ADVERTISING A COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING ARCTIC CHILL ALL THE
WAY INTO THANKSGIVING. THE GFS HAD BEEN A LESS-EXTREME...BUT STILL
COOL SOLUTION WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT ITS NEW
12 UTC RUN MADE A DRAMATIC SWITCH IN SHOWING A WELL-FORMED MIDDLE-
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THAT SAME TIME
FRAME. THE DIFFERENCE IN STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS ABOUT AS
LARGE AS IT CAN GET...WITH THE 12 UTC GFS-BASED MOS /MEX/ HAVING A
HIGH OF 59 F AT BILLINGS ON THANKSGIVING WHILE THE 00 UTC ECMWF ON
THE SAME DAY CALLS FOR A HIGH OF 24 F. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES
THE RESPONSIBLE ROUTE OF CALLING FOR A MIDDLE GROUND OF BOTH IDEAS
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING PERIOD FOR NOW. THERE/S
CERTAINLY SOME SUPPORT FOR THE MORE EXTREME ECMWF IDEA BEING WRONG
THOUGH BECAUSE 1/ IT REMAINS COLDER THAN THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND 2/ THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL INTO
THE POSITIVE RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH...AND WE OFTEN
NEED THAT TO BE NEGATIVE FOR A DEEP OR LONG-LIVED ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
INTERESTINGLY...THE NEW 13 KM /PARALLEL/ GFS IS VERY WARM LIKE THE
OPERATIONAL VERSION...AND IT ACTUALLY WENT OVER TO A WARM SOLUTION
AS EARLY AS LAST NIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOCALIZED
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...LLWS IS
EXPECTED E OF KBIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WSW
SURFACE WINDS OVER KLVM THROUGH FRI. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/046 029/048 030/041 025/038 023/038 022/034 014/032
    00/B    12/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/W    31/B
LVM 028/044 030/045 024/035 021/033 019/034 022/032 014/029
    00/N    14/W    22/J    32/J    34/J    54/W    31/N
HDN 022/046 022/049 026/041 020/038 019/038 018/034 010/031
    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/J    31/B
MLS 021/043 021/041 025/034 015/030 014/034 015/027 007/028
    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    23/J    21/B
4BQ 020/045 021/044 026/036 017/031 015/034 017/030 010/027
    00/B    02/W    22/J    22/J    23/J    33/J    31/B
BHK 020/042 020/040 024/030 012/023 012/030 012/022 004/024
    00/B    02/W    23/J    22/J    22/J    22/J    21/B
SHR 023/045 021/045 022/037 017/034 015/035 017/033 011/030
    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    44/J    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202217
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
317 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE PULLS OUT AND A WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM...MAYBE SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WIND EVENT FOR LIVINGSTON
AND NYE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SETUP FOR A GOOD
GAP WIND EVENT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT...BASED ON
GUIDANCE...AND AM LEANING TOWARDS A HIGHER END ADVISORY EVENT WITH
GUSTS 65 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE ALSO HAS WINDS INCREASING
FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS AT LIVINGSTON OR NYE...BUT GUSTS
COULD BE UP TO 50 MPH.

OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE
SEASONAL...AND HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE 40S IN FOR HIGHS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE THE OPERATIVE MODE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST-
ERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. WE ARE RATHER CONFIDENT IN THAT
SCENARIO AND WE BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER
IN THAT TIME FRAME IS RELATIVELY LOW.

HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF DRAMATICALLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AND IT/S BELOW-AVERAGE EVEN RELATIVE TO A NORMALLY-
MODEST CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR FIVE TO SEVEN DAY FORECASTS. THE ECMWF
HAS STAYED THE COURSE IN ADVERTISING A COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING ARCTIC CHILL ALL THE
WAY INTO THANKSGIVING. THE GFS HAD BEEN A LESS-EXTREME...BUT STILL
COOL SOLUTION WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT ITS NEW
12 UTC RUN MADE A DRAMATIC SWITCH IN SHOWING A WELL-FORMED MIDDLE-
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THAT SAME TIME
FRAME. THE DIFFERENCE IN STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS ABOUT AS
LARGE AS IT CAN GET...WITH THE 12 UTC GFS-BASED MOS /MEX/ HAVING A
HIGH OF 59 F AT BILLINGS ON THANKSGIVING WHILE THE 00 UTC ECMWF ON
THE SAME DAY CALLS FOR A HIGH OF 24 F. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES
THE RESPONSIBLE ROUTE OF CALLING FOR A MIDDLE GROUND OF BOTH IDEAS
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING PERIOD FOR NOW. THERE/S
CERTAINLY SOME SUPPORT FOR THE MORE EXTREME ECMWF IDEA BEING WRONG
THOUGH BECAUSE 1/ IT REMAINS COLDER THAN THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND 2/ THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL INTO
THE POSITIVE RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH...AND WE OFTEN
NEED THAT TO BE NEGATIVE FOR A DEEP OR LONG-LIVED ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
INTERESTINGLY...THE NEW 13 KM /PARALLEL/ GFS IS VERY WARM LIKE THE
OPERATIONAL VERSION...AND IT ACTUALLY WENT OVER TO A WARM SOLUTION
AS EARLY AS LAST NIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN AND AROUND THE FOOTHILLS LIKE AT KLVM. SOME LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY AT KMLS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT WITHIN 2000 FT AGL. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/046 029/048 030/041 025/038 023/038 022/034 014/032
    00/B    12/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/W    31/B
LVM 028/044 030/045 024/035 021/033 019/034 022/032 014/029
    00/N    14/W    22/J    32/J    34/J    54/W    31/N
HDN 022/046 022/049 026/041 020/038 019/038 018/034 010/031
    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/J    31/B
MLS 021/043 021/041 025/034 015/030 014/034 015/027 007/028
    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    23/J    21/B
4BQ 020/045 021/044 026/036 017/031 015/034 017/030 010/027
    00/B    02/W    22/J    22/J    23/J    33/J    31/B
BHK 020/042 020/040 024/030 012/023 012/030 012/022 004/024
    00/B    02/W    23/J    22/J    22/J    22/J    21/B
SHR 023/045 021/045 022/037 017/034 015/035 017/033 011/030
    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    44/J    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202217
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
317 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE PULLS OUT AND A WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM...MAYBE SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WIND EVENT FOR LIVINGSTON
AND NYE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SETUP FOR A GOOD
GAP WIND EVENT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT...BASED ON
GUIDANCE...AND AM LEANING TOWARDS A HIGHER END ADVISORY EVENT WITH
GUSTS 65 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE ALSO HAS WINDS INCREASING
FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS AT LIVINGSTON OR NYE...BUT GUSTS
COULD BE UP TO 50 MPH.

OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE
SEASONAL...AND HAVE CONTINUE TO HAVE 40S IN FOR HIGHS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE THE OPERATIVE MODE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST-
ERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. WE ARE RATHER CONFIDENT IN THAT
SCENARIO AND WE BELIEVE THE PROBABILITY OF ANY HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER
IN THAT TIME FRAME IS RELATIVELY LOW.

HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF DRAMATICALLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AND IT/S BELOW-AVERAGE EVEN RELATIVE TO A NORMALLY-
MODEST CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR FIVE TO SEVEN DAY FORECASTS. THE ECMWF
HAS STAYED THE COURSE IN ADVERTISING A COLD AND SNOWY PATTERN FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING ARCTIC CHILL ALL THE
WAY INTO THANKSGIVING. THE GFS HAD BEEN A LESS-EXTREME...BUT STILL
COOL SOLUTION WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT ITS NEW
12 UTC RUN MADE A DRAMATIC SWITCH IN SHOWING A WELL-FORMED MIDDLE-
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THAT SAME TIME
FRAME. THE DIFFERENCE IN STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS ABOUT AS
LARGE AS IT CAN GET...WITH THE 12 UTC GFS-BASED MOS /MEX/ HAVING A
HIGH OF 59 F AT BILLINGS ON THANKSGIVING WHILE THE 00 UTC ECMWF ON
THE SAME DAY CALLS FOR A HIGH OF 24 F. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES
THE RESPONSIBLE ROUTE OF CALLING FOR A MIDDLE GROUND OF BOTH IDEAS
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING PERIOD FOR NOW. THERE/S
CERTAINLY SOME SUPPORT FOR THE MORE EXTREME ECMWF IDEA BEING WRONG
THOUGH BECAUSE 1/ IT REMAINS COLDER THAN THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND 2/ THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL INTO
THE POSITIVE RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH...AND WE OFTEN
NEED THAT TO BE NEGATIVE FOR A DEEP OR LONG-LIVED ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
INTERESTINGLY...THE NEW 13 KM /PARALLEL/ GFS IS VERY WARM LIKE THE
OPERATIONAL VERSION...AND IT ACTUALLY WENT OVER TO A WARM SOLUTION
AS EARLY AS LAST NIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN AND AROUND THE FOOTHILLS LIKE AT KLVM. SOME LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY AT KMLS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT WITHIN 2000 FT AGL. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/046 029/048 030/041 025/038 023/038 022/034 014/032
    00/B    12/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/W    31/B
LVM 028/044 030/045 024/035 021/033 019/034 022/032 014/029
    00/N    14/W    22/J    32/J    34/J    54/W    31/N
HDN 022/046 022/049 026/041 020/038 019/038 018/034 010/031
    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/J    23/J    44/J    31/B
MLS 021/043 021/041 025/034 015/030 014/034 015/027 007/028
    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    23/J    21/B
4BQ 020/045 021/044 026/036 017/031 015/034 017/030 010/027
    00/B    02/W    22/J    22/J    23/J    33/J    31/B
BHK 020/042 020/040 024/030 012/023 012/030 012/022 004/024
    00/B    02/W    23/J    22/J    22/J    22/J    21/B
SHR 023/045 021/045 022/037 017/034 015/035 017/033 011/030
    00/U    03/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    44/J    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201608
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
908 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITH DEWPOINTS AND RH.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH TRENDS. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TODAY. AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN IN THE VICINITY OF
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG AND EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA
LINE...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH COLD PLAINS AIRMASS OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSH BUT COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 45 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE WEAKENING WINDS AS
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST TODAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CENTRAL AND WEST TO PUSH INTO THE MID 40S.

PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH THE RIDGE AND BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN
ZONES ONCE AGAIN. GUSTS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE...AND INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO THE AREA. WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE USUAL LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AND NYE
AREAS...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK BEFORE JUMPING ON A
HIGHLITE. WHILE THERE IS MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS PACIFIC JET...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WIND
GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGHS.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARTS SATURDAY...WITH MILD AND WINDY WEATHER...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING
SUNDAY. NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH STRENGTHENING PACIFIC SYSTEM
ENTERING THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN FACES
TO START...BUT WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WINDS SATURDAY ARE OF GREATER
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND
NYE...WHERE GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BEHIND PACIFIC
SYSTEM...WITH THE TROF DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WORK
WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...POINTING TO ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT BACKING INTO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...RIDGING AMPLIFIES OFF THE WEST COAST AND
SENDS A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SETUP...WITH ECMWF BRINGING IN
MUCH COLDER AIR AND MORE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND MANIFESTS MORE AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE INTO
EASTERN SLOPE. DID RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BASED ON IMPROVED AGREEMENT.
NORMALLY THIS WOULD NOT BE SUCH AN ISSUE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THIS SYSTEM LANDS ON MAJOR TRAVEL HOLIDAY.
WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY HOW THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT AROUND
KBHK ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT DURING THE DAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THERE BY AFTERNOON. VFR WEATHER WILL RULE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043 028/046 028/046 029/040 025/036 023/036 022/028
    0/E 00/U    13/W    32/W    22/J    33/J    54/J
LVM 045 028/043 029/042 023/034 020/032 017/032 023/028
    0/N 00/N    14/W    32/J    22/J    34/J    54/J
HDN 041 022/046 022/047 026/040 020/035 018/036 017/029
    0/B 00/B    03/W    32/W    22/J    33/J    54/J
MLS 037 020/042 020/040 025/034 014/028 013/032 014/026
    0/B 00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    23/J
4BQ 040 020/044 020/043 025/036 017/030 016/032 015/027
    0/B 00/B    01/B    32/J    22/J    23/J    33/J
BHK 033 019/041 019/039 024/030 011/023 011/028 013/025
    0/E 00/B    01/B    33/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
SHR 044 022/045 020/045 022/036 016/032 014/034 016/028
    0/B 10/B    02/W    42/J    22/J    23/J    54/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201053
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
353 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TODAY. AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN IN THE VICINITY OF
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG AND EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA
LINE...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH COLD PLAINS AIRMASS OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSH BUT COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 45 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE WEAKENING WINDS AS
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST TODAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CENTRAL AND WEST TO PUSH INTO THE MID 40S.

PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH THE RIDGE AND BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN
ZONES ONCE AGAIN. GUSTS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE...AND INCREASE TO 55 TO 65 MPH GUSTS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO THE AREA. WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE USUAL LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AND NYE
AREAS...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK BEFORE JUMPING ON A
HIGHLITE. WHILE THERE IS MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS PACIFIC JET...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WIND
GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGHS.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARTS SATURDAY...WITH MILD AND WINDY WEATHER...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING
SUNDAY. NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH STRENGTHENING PACIFIC SYSTEM
ENTERING THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN FACES
TO START...BUT WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WINDS SATURDAY ARE OF GREATER
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND
NYE...WHERE GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BEHIND PACIFIC
SYSTEM...WITH THE TROF DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WORK
WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...POINTING TO ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT BACKING INTO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...RIDGING AMPLIFIES OFF THE WEST COAST AND
SENDS A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SETUP...WITH ECMWF BRINGING IN
MUCH COLDER AIR AND MORE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND MANIFESTS MORE AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE INTO
EASTERN SLOPE. DID RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BASED ON IMPROVED AGREEMENT.
NORMALLY THIS WOULD NOT BE SUCH AN ISSUE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THIS SYSTEM LANDS ON MAJOR TRAVEL HOLIDAY.
WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY HOW THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN AND AROUND LIVINGSTON THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR
CIGS AROUND BAKER.

LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTHS
AND ABSAROKAS THU AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043 028/046 028/046 029/040 025/036 023/036 022/028
    0/B 00/U    13/W    32/W    22/J    33/J    54/J
LVM 045 028/043 029/042 023/034 020/032 017/032 023/028
    0/N 00/N    14/W    32/J    22/J    34/J    54/J
HDN 041 022/046 022/047 026/040 020/035 018/036 017/029
    0/B 00/B    03/W    32/W    22/J    33/J    54/J
MLS 037 020/042 020/040 025/034 014/028 013/032 014/026
    0/B 00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    23/J
4BQ 040 020/044 020/043 025/036 017/030 016/032 015/027
    0/B 00/B    01/B    32/J    22/J    23/J    33/J
BHK 033 019/041 019/039 024/030 011/023 011/028 013/025
    0/E 00/B    01/B    33/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
SHR 044 022/045 020/045 022/036 016/032 014/034 016/028
    0/B 10/B    02/W    42/J    22/J    23/J    54/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 201053
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
353 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TODAY. AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN IN THE VICINITY OF
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG AND EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA
LINE...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH COLD PLAINS AIRMASS OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO THE DAY...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSH BUT COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 45 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE WEAKENING WINDS AS
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST TODAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CENTRAL AND WEST TO PUSH INTO THE MID 40S.

PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH THE RIDGE AND BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN
ZONES ONCE AGAIN. GUSTS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE...AND INCREASE TO 55 TO 65 MPH GUSTS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO THE AREA. WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE USUAL LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AND NYE
AREAS...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK BEFORE JUMPING ON A
HIGHLITE. WHILE THERE IS MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS PACIFIC JET...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WIND
GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGHS.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARTS SATURDAY...WITH MILD AND WINDY WEATHER...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING
SUNDAY. NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH STRENGTHENING PACIFIC SYSTEM
ENTERING THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN FACES
TO START...BUT WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. WINDS SATURDAY ARE OF GREATER
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND
NYE...WHERE GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS IN BEHIND PACIFIC
SYSTEM...WITH THE TROF DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WORK
WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...POINTING TO ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT BACKING INTO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...RIDGING AMPLIFIES OFF THE WEST COAST AND
SENDS A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SETUP...WITH ECMWF BRINGING IN
MUCH COLDER AIR AND MORE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND MANIFESTS MORE AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE INTO
EASTERN SLOPE. DID RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BASED ON IMPROVED AGREEMENT.
NORMALLY THIS WOULD NOT BE SUCH AN ISSUE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THIS SYSTEM LANDS ON MAJOR TRAVEL HOLIDAY.
WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY HOW THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN AND AROUND LIVINGSTON THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR
CIGS AROUND BAKER.

LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTHS
AND ABSAROKAS THU AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043 028/046 028/046 029/040 025/036 023/036 022/028
    0/B 00/U    13/W    32/W    22/J    33/J    54/J
LVM 045 028/043 029/042 023/034 020/032 017/032 023/028
    0/N 00/N    14/W    32/J    22/J    34/J    54/J
HDN 041 022/046 022/047 026/040 020/035 018/036 017/029
    0/B 00/B    03/W    32/W    22/J    33/J    54/J
MLS 037 020/042 020/040 025/034 014/028 013/032 014/026
    0/B 00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    23/J
4BQ 040 020/044 020/043 025/036 017/030 016/032 015/027
    0/B 00/B    01/B    32/J    22/J    23/J    33/J
BHK 033 019/041 019/039 024/030 011/023 011/028 013/025
    0/E 00/B    01/B    33/J    22/J    22/J    22/J
SHR 044 022/045 020/045 022/036 016/032 014/034 016/028
    0/B 10/B    02/W    42/J    22/J    23/J    54/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200331
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
831 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR ROUNDUP
AND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO JUST A FEW MILES EAST OF BILLINGS.
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS EAST OF THE FRONT CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH AND THIS ALONG WITH ERODING STRATUS DECK IN THE EAST WILL
ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS. FRONT WILL
RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE OF FOG FOR BILLINGS BY 12Z. THE ONLY OTHER
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO INCREASE WINDS AT LIVINGSTON
AND NEAR NYE AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. GUSTS
WILL BE IN 35 MPH RANGE. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOWS MILD PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ IN SOUTHEASTERN MT HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON PER RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
WE FEEL THAT IT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THAT IDEA HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12 UTC NAM AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST AFTER 06
UTC OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND AS FAR WEST AS HYSHAM AS THE EDGES OF
A STRATUS FIELD LIKE THE ONE WE EXPECT ARE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE FORMATION OF FOG. THAT NOTION TOO HAS STRONG SUPPORT IN THE 12
UTC NCEP WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY...IF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG DOES INDEED FORM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDAY
HOURS AS LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING REMAINS VERY WEAK. WE LEANED ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RAW 2
METER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS IN THOSE AREAS WITH WARMING DEPENDENT
ON HOW WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING STRATUS IS /OR IS NOT/. HIGHS IN
GENERAL WILL WARM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THOUGH AND THE BLENDED
12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S F IN MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S F ONCE AGAIN IN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 850-
MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +6 C. THE LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD
DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE FOOTHILLS. LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE
CANDIDATES FOR A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM TO THEIR NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A MOUNTAIN-TOP STABLE LAYER STRENGTHENS. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MILD AND WINDY WEATHER SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SEASONABLY COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE STAYED
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A STRENGTHENING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LOWER-ELEVATION SHOWER ACTIVITY TOO. WINDS COULD
BE AT THEIR PEAK IN THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 60+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH-
WESTERLY AS A MEAN TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE
ARE CALLING FOR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THE
TIME NEXT WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...WHICH IS TROUBLING SINCE THAT/S
A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE 00
AND 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTIONS AMPLIFY RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST MUCH
MORE THAN THEIR GFS COUNTERPARTS...WHICH ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO DUMP
SOUTHWARD AND A SO-CALLED SLIDER SHORTWAVE TO CUT UNDER IT. IF THE
ECMWF IDEA IS RIGHT THEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER WOULD RESULT
RIGHT NEAR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CALLING
FOR MUCH-LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGING OFF THE COAST...WHICH IN TURN DOES
NOT OPEN THE DOOR TO NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIR MASS. IT IS TOO SOON
TO SAY WHICH OF THESE IDEAS IS RIGHT AS EVEN THOUGH IT/S COMMON TO
SEE THE ECMWF PICK UP ON A SCENARIO LIKE THIS FIRST...ITS VERY OWN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE TOO COLD AND SNOWY OF A MODEL
SOLUTION. STAY TUNED. SCHULTZ


&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST E OF KBIL OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR FROM NEAR ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO NEAR
LAME DEER E TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH
LOCALIZED LIFR IN THE FOG. THE FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THU MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE ABOVE AREAS THU AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THU. LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS THU
AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/044 029/045 029/046 029/040 025/037 023/037 022/035
    00/B    00/B    13/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
LVM 019/044 028/043 031/042 023/034 020/033 017/033 023/034
    00/N    00/N    14/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
HDN 014/042 023/045 021/047 026/040 020/036 018/037 017/036
    00/B    00/B    03/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
MLS 009/032 020/041 020/040 025/034 014/029 013/033 014/031
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    32/J
4BQ 010/037 020/043 020/043 025/036 017/031 016/033 015/032
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    32/J
BHK 003/030 017/040 020/039 024/030 011/024 011/029 013/028
    00/B    00/B    01/B    33/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
SHR 016/045 021/045 020/045 022/036 016/033 014/035 016/034
    00/B    10/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    33/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200331
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
831 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR ROUNDUP
AND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO JUST A FEW MILES EAST OF BILLINGS.
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS EAST OF THE FRONT CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH AND THIS ALONG WITH ERODING STRATUS DECK IN THE EAST WILL
ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS. FRONT WILL
RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE OF FOG FOR BILLINGS BY 12Z. THE ONLY OTHER
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO INCREASE WINDS AT LIVINGSTON
AND NEAR NYE AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. GUSTS
WILL BE IN 35 MPH RANGE. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOWS MILD PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ IN SOUTHEASTERN MT HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON PER RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
WE FEEL THAT IT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THAT IDEA HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12 UTC NAM AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST AFTER 06
UTC OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND AS FAR WEST AS HYSHAM AS THE EDGES OF
A STRATUS FIELD LIKE THE ONE WE EXPECT ARE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE FORMATION OF FOG. THAT NOTION TOO HAS STRONG SUPPORT IN THE 12
UTC NCEP WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY...IF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG DOES INDEED FORM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDAY
HOURS AS LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING REMAINS VERY WEAK. WE LEANED ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RAW 2
METER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS IN THOSE AREAS WITH WARMING DEPENDENT
ON HOW WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING STRATUS IS /OR IS NOT/. HIGHS IN
GENERAL WILL WARM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THOUGH AND THE BLENDED
12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S F IN MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S F ONCE AGAIN IN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 850-
MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +6 C. THE LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD
DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE FOOTHILLS. LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE
CANDIDATES FOR A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM TO THEIR NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A MOUNTAIN-TOP STABLE LAYER STRENGTHENS. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MILD AND WINDY WEATHER SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SEASONABLY COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE STAYED
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A STRENGTHENING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LOWER-ELEVATION SHOWER ACTIVITY TOO. WINDS COULD
BE AT THEIR PEAK IN THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 60+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH-
WESTERLY AS A MEAN TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE
ARE CALLING FOR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THE
TIME NEXT WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...WHICH IS TROUBLING SINCE THAT/S
A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE 00
AND 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTIONS AMPLIFY RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST MUCH
MORE THAN THEIR GFS COUNTERPARTS...WHICH ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO DUMP
SOUTHWARD AND A SO-CALLED SLIDER SHORTWAVE TO CUT UNDER IT. IF THE
ECMWF IDEA IS RIGHT THEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER WOULD RESULT
RIGHT NEAR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CALLING
FOR MUCH-LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGING OFF THE COAST...WHICH IN TURN DOES
NOT OPEN THE DOOR TO NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIR MASS. IT IS TOO SOON
TO SAY WHICH OF THESE IDEAS IS RIGHT AS EVEN THOUGH IT/S COMMON TO
SEE THE ECMWF PICK UP ON A SCENARIO LIKE THIS FIRST...ITS VERY OWN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE TOO COLD AND SNOWY OF A MODEL
SOLUTION. STAY TUNED. SCHULTZ


&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST E OF KBIL OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR FROM NEAR ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO NEAR
LAME DEER E TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH
LOCALIZED LIFR IN THE FOG. THE FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THU MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE ABOVE AREAS THU AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THU. LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS THU
AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/044 029/045 029/046 029/040 025/037 023/037 022/035
    00/B    00/B    13/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
LVM 019/044 028/043 031/042 023/034 020/033 017/033 023/034
    00/N    00/N    14/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
HDN 014/042 023/045 021/047 026/040 020/036 018/037 017/036
    00/B    00/B    03/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
MLS 009/032 020/041 020/040 025/034 014/029 013/033 014/031
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    32/J
4BQ 010/037 020/043 020/043 025/036 017/031 016/033 015/032
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    32/J
BHK 003/030 017/040 020/039 024/030 011/024 011/029 013/028
    00/B    00/B    01/B    33/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
SHR 016/045 021/045 020/045 022/036 016/033 014/035 016/034
    00/B    10/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    33/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200331
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
831 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR ROUNDUP
AND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO JUST A FEW MILES EAST OF BILLINGS.
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS EAST OF THE FRONT CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH AND THIS ALONG WITH ERODING STRATUS DECK IN THE EAST WILL
ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS. FRONT WILL
RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE OF FOG FOR BILLINGS BY 12Z. THE ONLY OTHER
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO INCREASE WINDS AT LIVINGSTON
AND NEAR NYE AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. GUSTS
WILL BE IN 35 MPH RANGE. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOWS MILD PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ IN SOUTHEASTERN MT HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON PER RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
WE FEEL THAT IT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THAT IDEA HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12 UTC NAM AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST AFTER 06
UTC OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND AS FAR WEST AS HYSHAM AS THE EDGES OF
A STRATUS FIELD LIKE THE ONE WE EXPECT ARE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE FORMATION OF FOG. THAT NOTION TOO HAS STRONG SUPPORT IN THE 12
UTC NCEP WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY...IF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG DOES INDEED FORM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDAY
HOURS AS LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING REMAINS VERY WEAK. WE LEANED ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RAW 2
METER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS IN THOSE AREAS WITH WARMING DEPENDENT
ON HOW WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING STRATUS IS /OR IS NOT/. HIGHS IN
GENERAL WILL WARM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THOUGH AND THE BLENDED
12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S F IN MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S F ONCE AGAIN IN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 850-
MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +6 C. THE LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD
DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE FOOTHILLS. LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE
CANDIDATES FOR A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM TO THEIR NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A MOUNTAIN-TOP STABLE LAYER STRENGTHENS. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MILD AND WINDY WEATHER SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SEASONABLY COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE STAYED
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A STRENGTHENING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LOWER-ELEVATION SHOWER ACTIVITY TOO. WINDS COULD
BE AT THEIR PEAK IN THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 60+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH-
WESTERLY AS A MEAN TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE
ARE CALLING FOR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THE
TIME NEXT WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...WHICH IS TROUBLING SINCE THAT/S
A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE 00
AND 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTIONS AMPLIFY RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST MUCH
MORE THAN THEIR GFS COUNTERPARTS...WHICH ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO DUMP
SOUTHWARD AND A SO-CALLED SLIDER SHORTWAVE TO CUT UNDER IT. IF THE
ECMWF IDEA IS RIGHT THEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER WOULD RESULT
RIGHT NEAR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CALLING
FOR MUCH-LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGING OFF THE COAST...WHICH IN TURN DOES
NOT OPEN THE DOOR TO NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIR MASS. IT IS TOO SOON
TO SAY WHICH OF THESE IDEAS IS RIGHT AS EVEN THOUGH IT/S COMMON TO
SEE THE ECMWF PICK UP ON A SCENARIO LIKE THIS FIRST...ITS VERY OWN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE TOO COLD AND SNOWY OF A MODEL
SOLUTION. STAY TUNED. SCHULTZ


&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST E OF KBIL OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR FROM NEAR ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO NEAR
LAME DEER E TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH
LOCALIZED LIFR IN THE FOG. THE FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THU MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE ABOVE AREAS THU AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THU. LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS THU
AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/044 029/045 029/046 029/040 025/037 023/037 022/035
    00/B    00/B    13/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
LVM 019/044 028/043 031/042 023/034 020/033 017/033 023/034
    00/N    00/N    14/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
HDN 014/042 023/045 021/047 026/040 020/036 018/037 017/036
    00/B    00/B    03/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
MLS 009/032 020/041 020/040 025/034 014/029 013/033 014/031
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    32/J
4BQ 010/037 020/043 020/043 025/036 017/031 016/033 015/032
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    32/J
BHK 003/030 017/040 020/039 024/030 011/024 011/029 013/028
    00/B    00/B    01/B    33/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
SHR 016/045 021/045 020/045 022/036 016/033 014/035 016/034
    00/B    10/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    33/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200331
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
831 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TOWARDS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR ROUNDUP
AND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO JUST A FEW MILES EAST OF BILLINGS.
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS EAST OF THE FRONT CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH AND THIS ALONG WITH ERODING STRATUS DECK IN THE EAST WILL
ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS. FRONT WILL
RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST BY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE OF FOG FOR BILLINGS BY 12Z. THE ONLY OTHER
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO INCREASE WINDS AT LIVINGSTON
AND NEAR NYE AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE. GUSTS
WILL BE IN 35 MPH RANGE. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOWS MILD PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ IN SOUTHEASTERN MT HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON PER RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
WE FEEL THAT IT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THAT IDEA HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12 UTC NAM AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST AFTER 06
UTC OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND AS FAR WEST AS HYSHAM AS THE EDGES OF
A STRATUS FIELD LIKE THE ONE WE EXPECT ARE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE FORMATION OF FOG. THAT NOTION TOO HAS STRONG SUPPORT IN THE 12
UTC NCEP WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY...IF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG DOES INDEED FORM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDAY
HOURS AS LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING REMAINS VERY WEAK. WE LEANED ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RAW 2
METER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS IN THOSE AREAS WITH WARMING DEPENDENT
ON HOW WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING STRATUS IS /OR IS NOT/. HIGHS IN
GENERAL WILL WARM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THOUGH AND THE BLENDED
12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S F IN MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S F ONCE AGAIN IN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 850-
MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +6 C. THE LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD
DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE FOOTHILLS. LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE
CANDIDATES FOR A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM TO THEIR NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A MOUNTAIN-TOP STABLE LAYER STRENGTHENS. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MILD AND WINDY WEATHER SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SEASONABLY COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE STAYED
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A STRENGTHENING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LOWER-ELEVATION SHOWER ACTIVITY TOO. WINDS COULD
BE AT THEIR PEAK IN THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 60+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH-
WESTERLY AS A MEAN TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE
ARE CALLING FOR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THE
TIME NEXT WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...WHICH IS TROUBLING SINCE THAT/S
A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE 00
AND 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTIONS AMPLIFY RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST MUCH
MORE THAN THEIR GFS COUNTERPARTS...WHICH ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO DUMP
SOUTHWARD AND A SO-CALLED SLIDER SHORTWAVE TO CUT UNDER IT. IF THE
ECMWF IDEA IS RIGHT THEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER WOULD RESULT
RIGHT NEAR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CALLING
FOR MUCH-LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGING OFF THE COAST...WHICH IN TURN DOES
NOT OPEN THE DOOR TO NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIR MASS. IT IS TOO SOON
TO SAY WHICH OF THESE IDEAS IS RIGHT AS EVEN THOUGH IT/S COMMON TO
SEE THE ECMWF PICK UP ON A SCENARIO LIKE THIS FIRST...ITS VERY OWN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE TOO COLD AND SNOWY OF A MODEL
SOLUTION. STAY TUNED. SCHULTZ


&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST E OF KBIL OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR FROM NEAR ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO NEAR
LAME DEER E TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR WITH
LOCALIZED LIFR IN THE FOG. THE FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THU MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE ABOVE AREAS THU AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THU. LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS THU
AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/044 029/045 029/046 029/040 025/037 023/037 022/035
    00/B    00/B    13/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
LVM 019/044 028/043 031/042 023/034 020/033 017/033 023/034
    00/N    00/N    14/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
HDN 014/042 023/045 021/047 026/040 020/036 018/037 017/036
    00/B    00/B    03/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
MLS 009/032 020/041 020/040 025/034 014/029 013/033 014/031
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    32/J
4BQ 010/037 020/043 020/043 025/036 017/031 016/033 015/032
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    32/J
BHK 003/030 017/040 020/039 024/030 011/024 011/029 013/028
    00/B    00/B    01/B    33/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
SHR 016/045 021/045 020/045 022/036 016/033 014/035 016/034
    00/B    10/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    33/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 192238
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
338 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOWS MILD PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ IN SOUTHEASTERN MT HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON PER RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
WE FEEL THAT IT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THAT IDEA HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12 UTC NAM AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST AFTER 06
UTC OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND AS FAR WEST AS HYSHAM AS THE EDGES OF
A STRATUS FIELD LIKE THE ONE WE EXPECT ARE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE FORMATION OF FOG. THAT NOTION TOO HAS STRONG SUPPORT IN THE 12
UTC NCEP WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY...IF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG DOES INDEED FORM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDAY
HOURS AS LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING REMAINS VERY WEAK. WE LEANED ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RAW 2
METER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS IN THOSE AREAS WITH WARMING DEPENDENT
ON HOW WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING STRATUS IS /OR IS NOT/. HIGHS IN
GENERAL WILL WARM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THOUGH AND THE BLENDED
12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S F IN MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S F ONCE AGAIN IN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 850-
MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +6 C. THE LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD
DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE FOOTHILLS. LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE
CANDIDATES FOR A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM TO THEIR NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A MOUNTAIN-TOP STABLE LAYER STRENGTHENS. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MILD AND WINDY WEATHER SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SEASONABLY COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE STAYED
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A STRENGTHENING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LOWER-ELEVATION SHOWER ACTIVITY TOO. WINDS COULD
BE AT THEIR PEAK IN THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 60+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH-
WESTERLY AS A MEAN TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE
ARE CALLING FOR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THE
TIME NEXT WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...WHICH IS TROUBLING SINCE THAT/S
A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE 00
AND 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTIONS AMPLIFY RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST MUCH
MORE THAN THEIR GFS COUNTERPARTS...WHICH ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO DUMP
SOUTHWARD AND A SO-CALLED SLIDER SHORTWAVE TO CUT UNDER IT. IF THE
ECMWF IDEA IS RIGHT THEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER WOULD RESULT
RIGHT NEAR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CALLING
FOR MUCH-LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGING OFF THE COAST...WHICH IN TURN DOES
NOT OPEN THE DOOR TO NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIR MASS. IT IS TOO SOON
TO SAY WHICH OF THESE IDEAS IS RIGHT AS EVEN THOUGH IT/S COMMON TO
SEE THE ECMWF PICK UP ON A SCENARIO LIKE THIS FIRST...ITS VERY OWN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE TOO COLD AND SNOWY OF A MODEL
SOLUTION. STAY TUNED. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. SOME LOW CEILINGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT MILES CITY. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND MILES
CITY...BUT ONLY HAVE VCFG IN THE TAFS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/044 029/045 029/046 029/040 025/037 023/037 022/035
    00/B    00/B    13/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
LVM 019/044 028/043 031/042 023/034 020/033 017/033 023/034
    00/N    00/N    14/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
HDN 014/042 023/045 021/047 026/040 020/036 018/037 017/036
    00/B    00/B    03/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
MLS 009/032 020/041 020/040 025/034 014/029 013/033 014/031
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    32/J
4BQ 010/037 020/043 020/043 025/036 017/031 016/033 015/032
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    32/J
BHK 003/030 017/040 020/039 024/030 011/024 011/029 013/028
    00/B    00/B    01/B    33/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
SHR 016/045 021/045 020/045 022/036 016/033 014/035 016/034
    00/B    10/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    33/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 192238
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
338 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOWS MILD PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

TONIGHT...THE STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ IN SOUTHEASTERN MT HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON PER RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
WE FEEL THAT IT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THAT IDEA HAS GOOD
SUPPORT FROM RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12 UTC NAM AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST AFTER 06
UTC OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND AS FAR WEST AS HYSHAM AS THE EDGES OF
A STRATUS FIELD LIKE THE ONE WE EXPECT ARE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
THE FORMATION OF FOG. THAT NOTION TOO HAS STRONG SUPPORT IN THE 12
UTC NCEP WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN UNEVENTFUL NIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY...IF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG DOES INDEED FORM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDAY
HOURS AS LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING REMAINS VERY WEAK. WE LEANED ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RAW 2
METER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS IN THOSE AREAS WITH WARMING DEPENDENT
ON HOW WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING STRATUS IS /OR IS NOT/. HIGHS IN
GENERAL WILL WARM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THOUGH AND THE BLENDED
12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WE USED TO BUILD THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S F IN MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S F ONCE AGAIN IN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 850-
MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +6 C. THE LEE-SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD
DEEPEN FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE FOOTHILLS. LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE
CANDIDATES FOR A WIND ADVISORY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM TO THEIR NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A MOUNTAIN-TOP STABLE LAYER STRENGTHENS. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MILD AND WINDY WEATHER SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SEASONABLY COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE STAYED
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A STRENGTHENING SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOULD FALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF LOWER-ELEVATION SHOWER ACTIVITY TOO. WINDS COULD
BE AT THEIR PEAK IN THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH 60+
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE...FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH-
WESTERLY AS A MEAN TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE
ARE CALLING FOR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THE
TIME NEXT WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...WHICH IS TROUBLING SINCE THAT/S
A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE 00
AND 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTIONS AMPLIFY RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST MUCH
MORE THAN THEIR GFS COUNTERPARTS...WHICH ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO DUMP
SOUTHWARD AND A SO-CALLED SLIDER SHORTWAVE TO CUT UNDER IT. IF THE
ECMWF IDEA IS RIGHT THEN SNOW AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER WOULD RESULT
RIGHT NEAR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS CALLING
FOR MUCH-LESS-AMPLIFIED RIDGING OFF THE COAST...WHICH IN TURN DOES
NOT OPEN THE DOOR TO NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIR MASS. IT IS TOO SOON
TO SAY WHICH OF THESE IDEAS IS RIGHT AS EVEN THOUGH IT/S COMMON TO
SEE THE ECMWF PICK UP ON A SCENARIO LIKE THIS FIRST...ITS VERY OWN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST IT COULD BE TOO COLD AND SNOWY OF A MODEL
SOLUTION. STAY TUNED. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. SOME LOW CEILINGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT MILES CITY. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND MILES
CITY...BUT ONLY HAVE VCFG IN THE TAFS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/044 029/045 029/046 029/040 025/037 023/037 022/035
    00/B    00/B    13/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
LVM 019/044 028/043 031/042 023/034 020/033 017/033 023/034
    00/N    00/N    14/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
HDN 014/042 023/045 021/047 026/040 020/036 018/037 017/036
    00/B    00/B    03/W    32/J    22/J    33/J    33/J
MLS 009/032 020/041 020/040 025/034 014/029 013/033 014/031
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    22/J    32/J
4BQ 010/037 020/043 020/043 025/036 017/031 016/033 015/032
    00/B    00/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    32/J
BHK 003/030 017/040 020/039 024/030 011/024 011/029 013/028
    00/B    00/B    01/B    33/J    22/J    23/J    22/J
SHR 016/045 021/045 020/045 022/036 016/033 014/035 016/034
    00/B    10/B    02/W    32/J    22/J    23/J    33/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191637
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
937 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...

SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE WELL-ENTRENCHED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT AS OF MID-MORNING...AND TRENDS IN THAT IMAGERY AND
HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THEY WILL HOLD ALL DAY. THE
FORECAST WAS THUS ADJUSTED TO KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN SOUTHEASTERN MT
ALL DAY INSTEAD OF THE DECREASING TREND PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE
FLURRY MENTION UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS WAS ALSO EXPANDED WESTWARD ALL
THE WAY TO MILES CITY AND BROADUS AND CONTINUED INTO THE AFTERNOON
TOO. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF TODAY/S FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
WE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO IT WITH THIS UPDATE. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT DUE TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND THIS IS MAINLY BRINGING JUST A LOW
CLOUD DECK FROM ABOUT ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD. CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO
WILL MAIN A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS LINE. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER...FEEL THAT THESE
WILL HANG IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS TODAY AND BECAUSE THERE
WON`T BE MUCH OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

BY THURSDAY...THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
ONCE AGAIN SET UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BRINGING A RETURNED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS. AS
IT STANDS NOW...WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AREAS. WE NEED TO WATCH THE
NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THIS LOOKS
TO BRING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK TO STAY PRECIP-FREE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST
AREAS WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...BREAKING DOWN TO A
FAST WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC
ORIGINATED OFF THE CHINA COAST SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND HAS PICKED UP
A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE ON ITS JOURNEY ACROSS THE OCEAN. A LOT OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL WRING OUT ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES BUT
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER AREA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS
MAKING IT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. JET STREAM TILTS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AS WELL AS
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
COVER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TO GO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
EXPECT A FEW WINDY TO VERY WINDY PERIODS ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS WITH THIS PATTERN.

AFTER PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE
GREATLY WITH WHAT HAPPENS AFTER TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AMPLIFIES WEST COAST RIDGE AND SHIFTS IT INTO THE AREA FOR A WARM
AND WINDY FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
HOLDS THE JET SOUTH OF THE AREA OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN ARCTIC
LOBE TO DROP INTO THE AREA. THE DIFFERENCE IN THESE SOLUTIONS IS
ABOUT 60 DEGREES IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN MODEL IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS BUT SHOWS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE
ECMWFS LARGE SCALE FEATURES. KEPT FORECAST NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BEING THAT THIS WILL IMPACT THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL FOR THANKSGIVING WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CHANGE CLOSELY.
CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST EAST OF A HYSHAM TO
GILLETTE LINE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035 019/044 028/045 028/046 029/039 022/037 022/038
    0/U 00/B    11/U    03/W    32/W    22/W    33/J
LVM 039 023/043 026/043 029/042 023/035 017/033 018/035
    0/U 11/N    11/N    14/W    33/J    32/J    33/J
HDN 034 013/042 020/044 022/046 027/039 019/038 020/039
    0/B 00/B    11/B    02/W    32/W    32/J    33/J
MLS 027 006/035 019/041 021/041 026/032 014/032 014/034
    1/M 00/B    11/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    22/J
4BQ 030 007/038 019/043 020/042 026/034 018/034 016/036
    1/M 00/B    01/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J
BHK 020 001/028 018/039 020/039 025/029 012/026 012/031
    1/M 00/B    01/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J
SHR 034 012/043 021/044 021/044 022/035 016/034 015/037
    0/U 00/B    11/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191637
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
937 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...

SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE WELL-ENTRENCHED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT AS OF MID-MORNING...AND TRENDS IN THAT IMAGERY AND
HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THEY WILL HOLD ALL DAY. THE
FORECAST WAS THUS ADJUSTED TO KEEP A CLOUDY SKY IN SOUTHEASTERN MT
ALL DAY INSTEAD OF THE DECREASING TREND PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE
FLURRY MENTION UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS WAS ALSO EXPANDED WESTWARD ALL
THE WAY TO MILES CITY AND BROADUS AND CONTINUED INTO THE AFTERNOON
TOO. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF TODAY/S FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
WE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO IT WITH THIS UPDATE. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT DUE TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND THIS IS MAINLY BRINGING JUST A LOW
CLOUD DECK FROM ABOUT ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD. CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO
WILL MAIN A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS LINE. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER...FEEL THAT THESE
WILL HANG IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS TODAY AND BECAUSE THERE
WON`T BE MUCH OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

BY THURSDAY...THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
ONCE AGAIN SET UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BRINGING A RETURNED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS. AS
IT STANDS NOW...WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AREAS. WE NEED TO WATCH THE
NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THIS LOOKS
TO BRING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK TO STAY PRECIP-FREE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST
AREAS WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...BREAKING DOWN TO A
FAST WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC
ORIGINATED OFF THE CHINA COAST SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND HAS PICKED UP
A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE ON ITS JOURNEY ACROSS THE OCEAN. A LOT OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL WRING OUT ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES BUT
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER AREA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS
MAKING IT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. JET STREAM TILTS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AS WELL AS
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
COVER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TO GO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
EXPECT A FEW WINDY TO VERY WINDY PERIODS ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS WITH THIS PATTERN.

AFTER PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE
GREATLY WITH WHAT HAPPENS AFTER TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AMPLIFIES WEST COAST RIDGE AND SHIFTS IT INTO THE AREA FOR A WARM
AND WINDY FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
HOLDS THE JET SOUTH OF THE AREA OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN ARCTIC
LOBE TO DROP INTO THE AREA. THE DIFFERENCE IN THESE SOLUTIONS IS
ABOUT 60 DEGREES IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN MODEL IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS BUT SHOWS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE
ECMWFS LARGE SCALE FEATURES. KEPT FORECAST NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BEING THAT THIS WILL IMPACT THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL FOR THANKSGIVING WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CHANGE CLOSELY.
CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST EAST OF A HYSHAM TO
GILLETTE LINE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035 019/044 028/045 028/046 029/039 022/037 022/038
    0/U 00/B    11/U    03/W    32/W    22/W    33/J
LVM 039 023/043 026/043 029/042 023/035 017/033 018/035
    0/U 11/N    11/N    14/W    33/J    32/J    33/J
HDN 034 013/042 020/044 022/046 027/039 019/038 020/039
    0/B 00/B    11/B    02/W    32/W    32/J    33/J
MLS 027 006/035 019/041 021/041 026/032 014/032 014/034
    1/M 00/B    11/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    22/J
4BQ 030 007/038 019/043 020/042 026/034 018/034 016/036
    1/M 00/B    01/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J
BHK 020 001/028 018/039 020/039 025/029 012/026 012/031
    1/M 00/B    01/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J
SHR 034 012/043 021/044 021/044 022/035 016/034 015/037
    0/U 00/B    11/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191049
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
349 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT DUE TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND THIS IS MAINLY BRINGING JUST A LOW
CLOUD DECK FROM ABOUT ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD. CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO
WILL MAINTAIN A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS LINE. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF
THESE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER...FEEL THAT
THESE WILL HANG IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS TODAY AND BECAUSE
THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

BY THURSDAY...THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
ONCE AGAIN SET UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BRINGING A RETURNED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS. AS
IT STANDS NOW...WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AREAS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THIS LOOKS
TO BRING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK TO STAY PRECIP-FREE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST
AREAS WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...BREAKING DOWN TO A
FAST WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC
ORIGINATED OFF THE CHINA COAST SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND HAS PICKED UP
A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE ON ITS JOURNEY ACROSS THE OCEAN. A LOT OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL WRING OUT ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES BUT
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER AREA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS
MAKING IT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. JET STREAM TILTS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AS WELL AS
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
COVER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TO GO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
EXPECT A FEW WINDY TO VERY WINDY PERIODS ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS WITH THIS PATTERN.

AFTER PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE
GREATLY WITH WHAT HAPPENS AFTER TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AMPLIFIES WEST COAST RIDGE AND SHIFTS IT INTO THE AREA FOR A WARM
AND WINDY FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
HOLDS THE JET SOUTH OF THE AREA OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN ARCTIC
LOBE TO DROP INTO THE AREA. THE DIFFERENCE IN THESE SOLUTIONS IS
ABOUT 60 DEGREES IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN MODEL IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS BUT SHOWS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE
ECMWFS LARGE SCALE FEATURES. KEPT FORECAST NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BEING THAT THIS WILL IMPACT THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL FOR THANKSGIVING WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CHANGE CLOSELY.
CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST EAST OF A HYSHAM TO
GILLETTE LINE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035 019/044 028/045 028/046 029/039 022/037 022/038
    0/U 00/B    11/U    03/W    32/W    22/W    33/J
LVM 038 023/043 026/043 029/042 023/035 017/033 018/035
    0/U 11/N    11/N    14/W    33/J    32/J    33/J
HDN 034 013/042 020/044 022/046 027/039 019/038 020/039
    0/B 00/B    11/B    02/W    32/W    32/J    33/J
MLS 026 006/035 019/041 021/041 026/032 014/032 014/034
    1/B 00/B    11/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    22/J
4BQ 028 007/038 019/043 020/042 026/034 018/034 016/036
    1/E 00/B    01/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J
BHK 020 001/028 018/039 020/039 025/029 012/026 012/031
    1/M 00/B    01/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J
SHR 034 012/043 021/044 021/044 022/035 016/034 015/037
    0/U 00/B    11/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191049
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
349 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT DUE TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND THIS IS MAINLY BRINGING JUST A LOW
CLOUD DECK FROM ABOUT ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD. CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO
WILL MAINTAIN A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS LINE. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF
THESE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER...FEEL THAT
THESE WILL HANG IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS TODAY AND BECAUSE
THERE WON`T BE MUCH OF A DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

BY THURSDAY...THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
ONCE AGAIN SET UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BRINGING A RETURNED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS. AS
IT STANDS NOW...WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AREAS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THIS LOOKS
TO BRING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK TO STAY PRECIP-FREE.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST
AREAS WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...BREAKING DOWN TO A
FAST WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC
ORIGINATED OFF THE CHINA COAST SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND HAS PICKED UP
A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE ON ITS JOURNEY ACROSS THE OCEAN. A LOT OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL WRING OUT ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES BUT
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW OVER AREA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS
MAKING IT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. JET STREAM TILTS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AS WELL AS
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL WESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH CLOUD
COVER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TO GO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
EXPECT A FEW WINDY TO VERY WINDY PERIODS ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS WITH THIS PATTERN.

AFTER PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE
GREATLY WITH WHAT HAPPENS AFTER TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AMPLIFIES WEST COAST RIDGE AND SHIFTS IT INTO THE AREA FOR A WARM
AND WINDY FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
HOLDS THE JET SOUTH OF THE AREA OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN ARCTIC
LOBE TO DROP INTO THE AREA. THE DIFFERENCE IN THESE SOLUTIONS IS
ABOUT 60 DEGREES IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW. THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN MODEL IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS BUT SHOWS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE
ECMWFS LARGE SCALE FEATURES. KEPT FORECAST NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BEING THAT THIS WILL IMPACT THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL FOR THANKSGIVING WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CHANGE CLOSELY.
CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST EAST OF A HYSHAM TO
GILLETTE LINE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035 019/044 028/045 028/046 029/039 022/037 022/038
    0/U 00/B    11/U    03/W    32/W    22/W    33/J
LVM 038 023/043 026/043 029/042 023/035 017/033 018/035
    0/U 11/N    11/N    14/W    33/J    32/J    33/J
HDN 034 013/042 020/044 022/046 027/039 019/038 020/039
    0/B 00/B    11/B    02/W    32/W    32/J    33/J
MLS 026 006/035 019/041 021/041 026/032 014/032 014/034
    1/B 00/B    11/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    22/J
4BQ 028 007/038 019/043 020/042 026/034 018/034 016/036
    1/E 00/B    01/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J
BHK 020 001/028 018/039 020/039 025/029 012/026 012/031
    1/M 00/B    01/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J
SHR 034 012/043 021/044 021/044 022/035 016/034 015/037
    0/U 00/B    11/B    02/W    33/J    32/J    23/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190351
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
851 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. UPPER JET IN
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
PROVIDE WEAK LIFT OVER THIS AREA. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
WEAK VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH AND WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR MILES CITY SOUTH TO BROADUS. ALSO
ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
06Z WITH UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES AND HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA TONIGHT AS A
TIGHT WEST TO EAST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CONTINUING TO BRING GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

BEHIND AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE OVER OUR EAST TODAY A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR/HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE HAS REMOVED SURFACE TROUGHING IN OUR
REGION RESULTING IN DIMINISHED WINDS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH I WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS THAT THREAT IS OVER. SOME
WEAK ENERGY IN THE N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING. I CARRIED SOME
FLURRIES AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BE THOROUGH...BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ZIP.

OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE TRICKY...MODELS HINT AT SOME STRATUS MOVING
INTO THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THIS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN IN THE WESTERN ZONES.
EVEN A BRIEF BREAK OR HOLE IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO DROP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. I HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW BUT
EVENING UPDATE SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AT MID EVENING TO SEE
HOW THINGS MAY PLAY OUT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS
BUILD. HOWEVER...JUST AS FAST ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE/ENERGY INTO OUR
REGION LATE THURSDAY. MOST OF THE FORCING IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER AREA AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO I SUSPECT MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WAS COVERED BY PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED SOME
TIMING AND RAISED SOME POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

WE STILL EXPECT A WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WELL UP INTO THE 40S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHEN WINDS
ALOFT TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND ALLOW MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO INVADE THE REGION. THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED THE TREND
SEEN IN THEIR 00 UTC COUNTERPARTS FOR A FASTER ARRIVAL OF A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND ARE NOW CALLING FOR A COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE CALLING FOR WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS BOTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WE MIGHT NEED TO RAISE
THEM FURTHER IF THE 12 UTC GFS IS RIGHT WITH 50+ KT WINDS EMBEDDED
IN A STABLE 700-MB LAYER. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT ACCUMULATING HIGH-
ELEVATION SNOWFALL ON WEST-FACING SLOPES AS THAT FRONT APPROACHES.
RELATIVELY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON THE PLAINS WITH THIS
SCENARIO GIVEN LARGE-SCALE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A MEAN TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
DETAILS DECREASES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS A LOT
OF SPREAD IN HOW IT HANDLES UPSTREAM RIDGING AND ANY WAVES GETTING
HANDED OFF BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST E OF KBIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON WED. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS
OVER SE MT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND GUSTY WSW WINDS
OVER KLVM WILL ALSO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF
OBSCURATION OVER THE NE BIG HORNS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT.
ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 017/035 019/043 027/045 027/046 029/040 021/038 022/038
    00/U    00/B    11/B    02/W    22/W    11/B    22/W
LVM 017/038 023/042 024/041 027/043 022/033 014/031 017/034
    00/U    11/N    11/B    13/W    22/J    22/J    23/W
HDN 014/034 013/042 020/044 021/047 025/039 018/038 018/039
    00/B    00/B    11/B    02/W    22/W    21/B    22/W
MLS 013/025 006/034 018/039 019/042 022/030 011/030 013/033
    11/B    01/B    11/B    02/W    22/J    21/B    22/W
4BQ 015/028 007/038 019/042 019/043 024/033 015/031 015/034
    21/M    00/B    11/B    01/B    22/J    22/J    22/J
BHK 014/019 001/030 018/038 020/039 021/027 010/026 012/029
    31/M    01/B    11/B    01/B    23/J    22/J    12/J
SHR 015/034 014/043 020/044 019/045 022/035 014/033 014/036
    10/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    22/J    21/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 182204
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

BEHIND AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE OVER OUR EAST TODAY A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR/HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE HAS REMOVED SURFACE TROUGHING IN OUR
REGION RESULTING IN DIMINISHED WINDS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH I CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS THAT THREAT IS OVER. SOME
WEAK ENERGY IN THE N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING. I CARRIED SOME
FLURRIES AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BE THOROUGH...BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ZIP.

OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE TRICKY...MODELS HINT AT SOME STRATUS MOVING
INTO THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THIS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN IN THE WESTERN ZONES.
EVEN A BRIEF BREAK OR HOLE IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO DROP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. I HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW BUT
EVENING UPDATE SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AT MID EVENING TO SEE
HOW THINGS MAY PLAY OUT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS
BUILD. HOWEVER...JUST AS FAST ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE/ENERGY INTO OUR
REGION LATE THURSDAY. MOST OF THE FORCING IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER AREA AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO I SUSPECT MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WAS COVERED BY PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED SOME
TIMING AND RAISED SOME POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

WE STILL EXPECT A WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WELL UP INTO THE 40S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHEN WINDS
ALOFT TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND ALLOW MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO INVADE THE REGION. THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED THE TREND
SEEN IN THEIR 00 UTC COUNTERPARTS FOR A FASTER ARRIVAL OF A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND ARE NOW CALLING FOR A COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE CALLING FOR WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS BOTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WE MIGHT NEED TO RAISE
THEM FURTHER IF THE 12 UTC GFS IS RIGHT WITH 50+ KT WINDS EMBEDDED
IN A STABLE 700-MB LAYER. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT ACCUMULATING HIGH-
ELEVATION SNOWFALL ON WEST-FACING SLOPES AS THAT FRONT APPROACHES.
RELATIVELY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON THE PLAINS WITH THIS
SCENARIO GIVEN LARGE-SCALE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A MEAN TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
DETAILS DECREASES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS A LOT
OF SPREAD IN HOW IT HANDLES UPSTREAM RIDGING AND ANY WAVES GETTING
HANDED OFF BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

WE BELIEVE THAT MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST
MT TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS TOO IN THE KMLS AND KBHK AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...WITH LESS THAN
15 PERCENT OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING SUB-VFR CLOUDS FORMING
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT THE KBIL TERMINAL. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 017/035 019/043 027/045 027/046 029/040 021/038 022/038
    00/U    00/B    11/B    02/W    22/W    11/B    22/W
LVM 017/038 023/042 024/041 027/043 022/033 014/031 017/034
    00/U    11/N    11/B    13/W    22/J    22/J    23/W
HDN 014/034 013/042 020/044 021/047 025/039 018/038 018/039
    00/B    00/B    11/B    02/W    22/W    21/B    22/W
MLS 013/025 006/034 018/039 019/042 022/030 011/030 013/033
    21/B    01/B    11/B    02/W    22/J    21/B    22/W
4BQ 015/028 007/038 019/042 019/043 024/033 015/031 015/034
    21/M    00/B    11/B    01/B    22/J    22/J    22/J
BHK 012/019 001/030 018/038 020/039 021/027 010/026 012/029
    31/M    01/B    11/B    01/B    23/J    22/J    12/J
SHR 015/034 014/043 020/044 019/045 022/035 014/033 014/036
    10/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    22/J    21/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 182204
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

BEHIND AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE OVER OUR EAST TODAY A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR/HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE HAS REMOVED SURFACE TROUGHING IN OUR
REGION RESULTING IN DIMINISHED WINDS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AS
SUCH I CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS THAT THREAT IS OVER. SOME
WEAK ENERGY IN THE N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING. I CARRIED SOME
FLURRIES AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BE THOROUGH...BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ZIP.

OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE TRICKY...MODELS HINT AT SOME STRATUS MOVING
INTO THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THIS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN IN THE WESTERN ZONES.
EVEN A BRIEF BREAK OR HOLE IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO DROP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. I HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR NOW BUT
EVENING UPDATE SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AT MID EVENING TO SEE
HOW THINGS MAY PLAY OUT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS
BUILD. HOWEVER...JUST AS FAST ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE/ENERGY INTO OUR
REGION LATE THURSDAY. MOST OF THE FORCING IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER AREA AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SO I SUSPECT MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WAS COVERED BY PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED SOME
TIMING AND RAISED SOME POPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

WE STILL EXPECT A WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WELL UP INTO THE 40S F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHEN WINDS
ALOFT TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND ALLOW MILD PACIFIC AIR
TO INVADE THE REGION. THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED THE TREND
SEEN IN THEIR 00 UTC COUNTERPARTS FOR A FASTER ARRIVAL OF A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND ARE NOW CALLING FOR A COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE CALLING FOR WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS BOTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WE MIGHT NEED TO RAISE
THEM FURTHER IF THE 12 UTC GFS IS RIGHT WITH 50+ KT WINDS EMBEDDED
IN A STABLE 700-MB LAYER. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT ACCUMULATING HIGH-
ELEVATION SNOWFALL ON WEST-FACING SLOPES AS THAT FRONT APPROACHES.
RELATIVELY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON THE PLAINS WITH THIS
SCENARIO GIVEN LARGE-SCALE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A MEAN TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
DETAILS DECREASES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS A LOT
OF SPREAD IN HOW IT HANDLES UPSTREAM RIDGING AND ANY WAVES GETTING
HANDED OFF BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

WE BELIEVE THAT MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST
MT TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CHANCE
OF IFR CONDITIONS TOO IN THE KMLS AND KBHK AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...WITH LESS THAN
15 PERCENT OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING SUB-VFR CLOUDS FORMING
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT THE KBIL TERMINAL. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 017/035 019/043 027/045 027/046 029/040 021/038 022/038
    00/U    00/B    11/B    02/W    22/W    11/B    22/W
LVM 017/038 023/042 024/041 027/043 022/033 014/031 017/034
    00/U    11/N    11/B    13/W    22/J    22/J    23/W
HDN 014/034 013/042 020/044 021/047 025/039 018/038 018/039
    00/B    00/B    11/B    02/W    22/W    21/B    22/W
MLS 013/025 006/034 018/039 019/042 022/030 011/030 013/033
    21/B    01/B    11/B    02/W    22/J    21/B    22/W
4BQ 015/028 007/038 019/042 019/043 024/033 015/031 015/034
    21/M    00/B    11/B    01/B    22/J    22/J    22/J
BHK 012/019 001/030 018/038 020/039 021/027 010/026 012/029
    31/M    01/B    11/B    01/B    23/J    22/J    12/J
SHR 015/034 014/043 020/044 019/045 022/035 014/033 014/036
    10/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    22/J    21/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




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