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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 042147
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ON THE QUIET SIDE AS WE SLOWLY WARM UP
AND TRANSITION TO ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL HAVE SOME
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN BORDER
COUNTIES AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME WEAK SHALLOW ENERGY
ALOFT PASSING BY...BUT NOTHING NEAR POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION AS LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WIND AT THE USUAL GAP LOCATIONS
/LIVINGSTON AND NYE/ AS SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. I HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS TO JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVEL IN THESE LOCATIONS STARTING NEAR 12Z THURSDAY
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH LOCAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT BEING THE MAIN
TIME FRAME FOR HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
AS WE COULD POSSIBLY NEED A WIND ADVISORY IN THESE LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT PROGGS HAVE ME ON THE FENCE AND
WOULD RATHER FUTURE SHIFTS SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS RATHER
THAN HANDCUFF THEM WITH WEAK HIGHLIGHTS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR WEEKEND WITH A WEAK TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND
ALLOWING SOME COLDER AIR TO BACK DOOR INTO THE EASTERN ZONES
BY SATURDAY. GFS PAINTS SOME LOW VALUES OF QPF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH DROPS SOUTH ONTO THE NORTH FACING
HIGHER TERRAIN BY EVENING. ECMWF KEEPS US DRY BUT DOES HAVE SIMILAR
WEAK QVECTOR FORCING. HAVE OPTED TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER JUST
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW...ANYTHING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS PROBABLY
WOULD NOT MEASURE. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A SOMEWHAT DIRTY RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AT THAT POINT THE EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS GETS VERY UNSETTLED WITH STRONG TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS DIRTY RIDGE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION. NO MODEL CONSISTENCY
AFTER MIDWEEK EITHER. THIS STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKES ME THINK /BASED ON EXPERIENCE/ MODELS MAY
EVENTUALLY RESOLVE THINGS INTO AN ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW. AT ANY
RATE...WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED WEATHER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN HOW THINGS PAN OUT AFTER DAY 6. BT


&&

.AVIATION...

ANY CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT LIKELY AT
KLVM LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 015/046 029/053 029/053 030/056 035/062 036/060 031/047
    00/N    00/N    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    22/W
LVM 018/046 029/052 032/053 031/055 035/059 037/058 036/049
    00/N    00/N    11/B    10/U    00/N    00/N    22/W
HDN 010/047 025/054 027/054 028/057 031/063 032/063 029/050
    00/B    00/E    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    02/W
MLS 008/046 027/053 027/051 028/055 032/060 033/058 029/046
    00/B    00/E    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/B
4BQ 003/042 021/048 023/049 026/053 029/060 030/060 028/048
    00/B    00/B    01/B    10/B    00/U    00/U    00/B
BHK 001/043 022/050 025/048 025/052 030/057 029/056 027/045
    00/B    00/E    21/B    10/U    00/U    00/N    00/B
SHR 006/043 022/049 024/049 025/052 028/060 030/059 028/048
    00/B    00/B    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 042147
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ON THE QUIET SIDE AS WE SLOWLY WARM UP
AND TRANSITION TO ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL HAVE SOME
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN BORDER
COUNTIES AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME WEAK SHALLOW ENERGY
ALOFT PASSING BY...BUT NOTHING NEAR POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION AS LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WIND AT THE USUAL GAP LOCATIONS
/LIVINGSTON AND NYE/ AS SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. I HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS TO JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVEL IN THESE LOCATIONS STARTING NEAR 12Z THURSDAY
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH LOCAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT BEING THE MAIN
TIME FRAME FOR HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
AS WE COULD POSSIBLY NEED A WIND ADVISORY IN THESE LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT PROGGS HAVE ME ON THE FENCE AND
WOULD RATHER FUTURE SHIFTS SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS RATHER
THAN HANDCUFF THEM WITH WEAK HIGHLIGHTS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR WEEKEND WITH A WEAK TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND
ALLOWING SOME COLDER AIR TO BACK DOOR INTO THE EASTERN ZONES
BY SATURDAY. GFS PAINTS SOME LOW VALUES OF QPF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH DROPS SOUTH ONTO THE NORTH FACING
HIGHER TERRAIN BY EVENING. ECMWF KEEPS US DRY BUT DOES HAVE SIMILAR
WEAK QVECTOR FORCING. HAVE OPTED TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER JUST
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW...ANYTHING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS PROBABLY
WOULD NOT MEASURE. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A SOMEWHAT DIRTY RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AT THAT POINT THE EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS GETS VERY UNSETTLED WITH STRONG TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS DIRTY RIDGE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION. NO MODEL CONSISTENCY
AFTER MIDWEEK EITHER. THIS STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKES ME THINK /BASED ON EXPERIENCE/ MODELS MAY
EVENTUALLY RESOLVE THINGS INTO AN ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW. AT ANY
RATE...WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED WEATHER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN HOW THINGS PAN OUT AFTER DAY 6. BT


&&

.AVIATION...

ANY CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT LIKELY AT
KLVM LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 015/046 029/053 029/053 030/056 035/062 036/060 031/047
    00/N    00/N    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    22/W
LVM 018/046 029/052 032/053 031/055 035/059 037/058 036/049
    00/N    00/N    11/B    10/U    00/N    00/N    22/W
HDN 010/047 025/054 027/054 028/057 031/063 032/063 029/050
    00/B    00/E    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    02/W
MLS 008/046 027/053 027/051 028/055 032/060 033/058 029/046
    00/B    00/E    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/B
4BQ 003/042 021/048 023/049 026/053 029/060 030/060 028/048
    00/B    00/B    01/B    10/B    00/U    00/U    00/B
BHK 001/043 022/050 025/048 025/052 030/057 029/056 027/045
    00/B    00/E    21/B    10/U    00/U    00/N    00/B
SHR 006/043 022/049 024/049 025/052 028/060 030/059 028/048
    00/B    00/B    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 042147
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ON THE QUIET SIDE AS WE SLOWLY WARM UP
AND TRANSITION TO ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL HAVE SOME
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN BORDER
COUNTIES AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME WEAK SHALLOW ENERGY
ALOFT PASSING BY...BUT NOTHING NEAR POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION AS LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WIND AT THE USUAL GAP LOCATIONS
/LIVINGSTON AND NYE/ AS SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. I HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS TO JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVEL IN THESE LOCATIONS STARTING NEAR 12Z THURSDAY
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH LOCAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT BEING THE MAIN
TIME FRAME FOR HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
AS WE COULD POSSIBLY NEED A WIND ADVISORY IN THESE LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT PROGGS HAVE ME ON THE FENCE AND
WOULD RATHER FUTURE SHIFTS SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS RATHER
THAN HANDCUFF THEM WITH WEAK HIGHLIGHTS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR WEEKEND WITH A WEAK TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND
ALLOWING SOME COLDER AIR TO BACK DOOR INTO THE EASTERN ZONES
BY SATURDAY. GFS PAINTS SOME LOW VALUES OF QPF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH DROPS SOUTH ONTO THE NORTH FACING
HIGHER TERRAIN BY EVENING. ECMWF KEEPS US DRY BUT DOES HAVE SIMILAR
WEAK QVECTOR FORCING. HAVE OPTED TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER JUST
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW...ANYTHING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS PROBABLY
WOULD NOT MEASURE. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A SOMEWHAT DIRTY RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AT THAT POINT THE EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS GETS VERY UNSETTLED WITH STRONG TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS DIRTY RIDGE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION. NO MODEL CONSISTENCY
AFTER MIDWEEK EITHER. THIS STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKES ME THINK /BASED ON EXPERIENCE/ MODELS MAY
EVENTUALLY RESOLVE THINGS INTO AN ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW. AT ANY
RATE...WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED WEATHER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN HOW THINGS PAN OUT AFTER DAY 6. BT


&&

.AVIATION...

ANY CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT LIKELY AT
KLVM LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 015/046 029/053 029/053 030/056 035/062 036/060 031/047
    00/N    00/N    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    22/W
LVM 018/046 029/052 032/053 031/055 035/059 037/058 036/049
    00/N    00/N    11/B    10/U    00/N    00/N    22/W
HDN 010/047 025/054 027/054 028/057 031/063 032/063 029/050
    00/B    00/E    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    02/W
MLS 008/046 027/053 027/051 028/055 032/060 033/058 029/046
    00/B    00/E    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/B
4BQ 003/042 021/048 023/049 026/053 029/060 030/060 028/048
    00/B    00/B    01/B    10/B    00/U    00/U    00/B
BHK 001/043 022/050 025/048 025/052 030/057 029/056 027/045
    00/B    00/E    21/B    10/U    00/U    00/N    00/B
SHR 006/043 022/049 024/049 025/052 028/060 030/059 028/048
    00/B    00/B    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041540
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THERE IS SOME
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS
THIS MORNING FROM WEAK QG FORCING IN THE NW FLOW CREATING A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE THERE. WILL ADD THIS FOR THE MORNING...BUT
EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
HITTING OUT BY BAKER...SO WILL LET IT GO THROUGH ITS VALID PERIOD
OF 11 AM. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE LEAVING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECTING INCREASING CIRRUS WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...AS A MORE FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE PARK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AROUND LIVINGSTON. SOME
LOCAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWS A REALLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND LIVINGSTON. AT THE MOMENT...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS SHOULD
AMOUNT ONLY TO PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN MOST
CASES. THE STRONGER WAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT IN MODEL PLACEMENT HAS SEEMINGLY RESOLVED
ITSELF WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE AS
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS GAP WIND FAVORED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

WE EXPECT SOME CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY TODAY AND THAT
COULD YIELD BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029 015/046 028/053 029/053 031/056 034/060 035/061
    0/U 00/N    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 030 019/045 028/051 031/054 033/055 034/058 035/060
    0/U 00/N    01/B    11/B    10/U    00/N    00/N
HDN 027 011/048 025/054 026/054 029/057 031/062 032/063
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 020 007/047 025/052 027/051 029/054 031/058 032/059
    0/U 00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 018 002/043 020/047 023/050 027/053 028/059 030/060
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 014 000/043 021/047 024/048 026/051 028/055 028/056
    0/B 00/B    00/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/N
SHR 018 005/042 020/047 024/048 025/053 028/058 030/060
    1/B 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
      FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041540
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THERE IS SOME
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS
THIS MORNING FROM WEAK QG FORCING IN THE NW FLOW CREATING A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE THERE. WILL ADD THIS FOR THE MORNING...BUT
EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
HITTING OUT BY BAKER...SO WILL LET IT GO THROUGH ITS VALID PERIOD
OF 11 AM. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE LEAVING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECTING INCREASING CIRRUS WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...AS A MORE FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE PARK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AROUND LIVINGSTON. SOME
LOCAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWS A REALLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND LIVINGSTON. AT THE MOMENT...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS SHOULD
AMOUNT ONLY TO PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN MOST
CASES. THE STRONGER WAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT IN MODEL PLACEMENT HAS SEEMINGLY RESOLVED
ITSELF WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE AS
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS GAP WIND FAVORED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

WE EXPECT SOME CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY TODAY AND THAT
COULD YIELD BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029 015/046 028/053 029/053 031/056 034/060 035/061
    0/U 00/N    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 030 019/045 028/051 031/054 033/055 034/058 035/060
    0/U 00/N    01/B    11/B    10/U    00/N    00/N
HDN 027 011/048 025/054 026/054 029/057 031/062 032/063
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 020 007/047 025/052 027/051 029/054 031/058 032/059
    0/U 00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 018 002/043 020/047 023/050 027/053 028/059 030/060
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 014 000/043 021/047 024/048 026/051 028/055 028/056
    0/B 00/B    00/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/N
SHR 018 005/042 020/047 024/048 025/053 028/058 030/060
    1/B 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
      FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041011
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE LEAVING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECTING INCREASING CIRRUS WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...AS A MORE FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE PARK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AROUND LIVINGSTON. SOME
LOCAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWS A REALLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND LIVINGSTON. AT THE MOMENT...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS SHOULD
AMOUNT ONLY TO PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN MOST
CASES. THE STRONGER WAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT IN MODEL PLACEMENT HAS SEEMINGLY RESOLVED
ITSELF WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE AS
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS GAP WIND FAVORED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST
INTO MID AFTERNOON. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029 015/046 028/053 029/053 031/056 034/060 035/061
    0/U 00/N    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 030 019/045 028/051 031/054 033/055 034/058 035/060
    0/B 00/N    01/B    11/B    10/U    00/N    00/N
HDN 027 011/048 025/054 026/054 029/057 031/062 032/063
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 020 007/047 025/052 027/051 029/054 031/058 032/059
    0/U 00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 018 002/043 020/047 023/050 027/053 028/059 030/060
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 014 000/043 021/047 024/048 026/051 028/055 028/056
    0/B 00/B    00/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/N
SHR 018 005/042 020/047 024/048 025/053 028/058 030/060
    0/B 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
      FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041011
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE LEAVING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECTING INCREASING CIRRUS WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...AS A MORE FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE PARK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AROUND LIVINGSTON. SOME
LOCAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWS A REALLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND LIVINGSTON. AT THE MOMENT...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS SHOULD
AMOUNT ONLY TO PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN MOST
CASES. THE STRONGER WAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT IN MODEL PLACEMENT HAS SEEMINGLY RESOLVED
ITSELF WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE AS
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS GAP WIND FAVORED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST
INTO MID AFTERNOON. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029 015/046 028/053 029/053 031/056 034/060 035/061
    0/U 00/N    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 030 019/045 028/051 031/054 033/055 034/058 035/060
    0/B 00/N    01/B    11/B    10/U    00/N    00/N
HDN 027 011/048 025/054 026/054 029/057 031/062 032/063
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 020 007/047 025/052 027/051 029/054 031/058 032/059
    0/U 00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 018 002/043 020/047 023/050 027/053 028/059 030/060
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 014 000/043 021/047 024/048 026/051 028/055 028/056
    0/B 00/B    00/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/N
SHR 018 005/042 020/047 024/048 025/053 028/058 030/060
    0/B 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
      FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041011
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE LEAVING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECTING INCREASING CIRRUS WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...AS A MORE FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE PARK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AROUND LIVINGSTON. SOME
LOCAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWS A REALLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND LIVINGSTON. AT THE MOMENT...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS SHOULD
AMOUNT ONLY TO PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN MOST
CASES. THE STRONGER WAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT IN MODEL PLACEMENT HAS SEEMINGLY RESOLVED
ITSELF WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE AS
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS GAP WIND FAVORED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST
INTO MID AFTERNOON. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029 015/046 028/053 029/053 031/056 034/060 035/061
    0/U 00/N    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 030 019/045 028/051 031/054 033/055 034/058 035/060
    0/B 00/N    01/B    11/B    10/U    00/N    00/N
HDN 027 011/048 025/054 026/054 029/057 031/062 032/063
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 020 007/047 025/052 027/051 029/054 031/058 032/059
    0/U 00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 018 002/043 020/047 023/050 027/053 028/059 030/060
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 014 000/043 021/047 024/048 026/051 028/055 028/056
    0/B 00/B    00/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/N
SHR 018 005/042 020/047 024/048 025/053 028/058 030/060
    0/B 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
      FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040427
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
927 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES ON TRACK THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWS A FLURRY OR TWO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
ONLY BRIEF ACTIVITY EXPECTED. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND A
WAVE MOVING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA SO WIND CHILL ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WEATHER SYSTEM LAST NIGHT CARVED OUT A NICE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL RESPONSE. SO I ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OF PERHAPS FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. FURTHER
WEST...THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS. SO I DID ADD SOME
SPOTTY LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND NEARBY ADJACENT AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRISK WIND OVER THE COLD AIR MASS DOES DRIVE DOWN
THE WIND CHILLS OUT EAST. AS SUCH I WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM
WEDNESDAY.

TOMORROW...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS. I AM GOING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DEEP NEW
SNOW THERE. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW NOW THAT WE ARE IN TO EARLY MARCH.

EVEN BETTER WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS THURSDAY
...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY
WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE...REMOVED
POPS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
SHOWER TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM...DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM KMLS TO KBHK WHERE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
AND MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 016/046 029/050 029/050 030/054 033/058 033/058
    00/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
LVM 001/031 022/044 029/048 028/049 030/052 031/055 033/056
    10/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U
HDN 002/028 012/047 025/051 026/051 028/055 030/059 030/059
    00/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
MLS 901/019 006/046 025/048 027/048 028/051 029/055 032/057
    20/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 902/018 003/042 020/047 024/047 026/051 027/056 029/057
    10/B    00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 903/012 000/041 021/046 024/045 025/047 026/051 029/053
    20/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 907/018 005/041 021/045 022/044 024/050 027/055 029/056
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040427
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
927 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES ON TRACK THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWS A FLURRY OR TWO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
ONLY BRIEF ACTIVITY EXPECTED. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND A
WAVE MOVING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA SO WIND CHILL ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WEATHER SYSTEM LAST NIGHT CARVED OUT A NICE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL RESPONSE. SO I ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OF PERHAPS FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. FURTHER
WEST...THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS. SO I DID ADD SOME
SPOTTY LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND NEARBY ADJACENT AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRISK WIND OVER THE COLD AIR MASS DOES DRIVE DOWN
THE WIND CHILLS OUT EAST. AS SUCH I WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM
WEDNESDAY.

TOMORROW...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS. I AM GOING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DEEP NEW
SNOW THERE. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW NOW THAT WE ARE IN TO EARLY MARCH.

EVEN BETTER WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS THURSDAY
...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY
WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE...REMOVED
POPS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
SHOWER TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM...DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM KMLS TO KBHK WHERE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
AND MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 016/046 029/050 029/050 030/054 033/058 033/058
    00/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
LVM 001/031 022/044 029/048 028/049 030/052 031/055 033/056
    10/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U
HDN 002/028 012/047 025/051 026/051 028/055 030/059 030/059
    00/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
MLS 901/019 006/046 025/048 027/048 028/051 029/055 032/057
    20/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 902/018 003/042 020/047 024/047 026/051 027/056 029/057
    10/B    00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 903/012 000/041 021/046 024/045 025/047 026/051 029/053
    20/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 907/018 005/041 021/045 022/044 024/050 027/055 029/056
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 040427
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
927 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES ON TRACK THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE SHOWS A FLURRY OR TWO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
ONLY BRIEF ACTIVITY EXPECTED. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND A
WAVE MOVING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA SO WIND CHILL ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WEATHER SYSTEM LAST NIGHT CARVED OUT A NICE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL RESPONSE. SO I ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OF PERHAPS FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. FURTHER
WEST...THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS. SO I DID ADD SOME
SPOTTY LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND NEARBY ADJACENT AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRISK WIND OVER THE COLD AIR MASS DOES DRIVE DOWN
THE WIND CHILLS OUT EAST. AS SUCH I WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM
WEDNESDAY.

TOMORROW...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS. I AM GOING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DEEP NEW
SNOW THERE. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW NOW THAT WE ARE IN TO EARLY MARCH.

EVEN BETTER WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS THURSDAY
...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY
WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE...REMOVED
POPS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
SHOWER TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM...DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM KMLS TO KBHK WHERE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
AND MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 016/046 029/050 029/050 030/054 033/058 033/058
    00/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
LVM 001/031 022/044 029/048 028/049 030/052 031/055 033/056
    10/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U
HDN 002/028 012/047 025/051 026/051 028/055 030/059 030/059
    00/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
MLS 901/019 006/046 025/048 027/048 028/051 029/055 032/057
    20/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 902/018 003/042 020/047 024/047 026/051 027/056 029/057
    10/B    00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 903/012 000/041 021/046 024/045 025/047 026/051 029/053
    20/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 907/018 005/041 021/045 022/044 024/050 027/055 029/056
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 032151
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
251 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WEATHER SYSTEM LAST NIGHT CARVED OUT A NICE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL RESPONSE. SO I ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OF PERHAPS FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. FURTHER
WEST...THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS. SO I DID ADD SOME
SPOTTY LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND NEARBY ADJACENT AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRISK WIND OVER THE COLD AIR MASS DOES DRIVE DOWN
THE WIND CHILLS OUT EAST. AS SUCH I WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM
WEDNESDAY.

TOMORROW...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS. I AM GOING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DEEP NEW
SNOW THERE. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW NOW THAT WE ARE IN TO EARLY MARCH.

EVEN BETTER WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS THURSDAY
...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY
WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE...REMOVED
POPS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
SHOWER TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM...DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM KMLS TO KBHK WHERE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
AND MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 016/046 029/050 029/050 030/054 033/058 033/058
    00/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
LVM 001/031 022/044 029/048 028/049 030/052 031/055 033/056
    10/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U
HDN 002/028 012/047 025/051 026/051 028/055 030/059 030/059
    00/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
MLS 901/019 006/046 025/048 027/048 028/051 029/055 032/057
    20/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 902/018 003/042 020/047 024/047 026/051 027/056 029/057
    10/B    00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 903/012 000/041 021/046 024/045 025/047 026/051 029/053
    20/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 907/018 005/041 021/045 022/044 024/050 027/055 029/056
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11
      AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 032151
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
251 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WEATHER SYSTEM LAST NIGHT CARVED OUT A NICE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL RESPONSE. SO I ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OF PERHAPS FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. FURTHER
WEST...THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS. SO I DID ADD SOME
SPOTTY LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND NEARBY ADJACENT AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRISK WIND OVER THE COLD AIR MASS DOES DRIVE DOWN
THE WIND CHILLS OUT EAST. AS SUCH I WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM
WEDNESDAY.

TOMORROW...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS. I AM GOING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DEEP NEW
SNOW THERE. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW NOW THAT WE ARE IN TO EARLY MARCH.

EVEN BETTER WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS THURSDAY
...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY
WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE...REMOVED
POPS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
SHOWER TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM...DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM KMLS TO KBHK WHERE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
AND MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 016/046 029/050 029/050 030/054 033/058 033/058
    00/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
LVM 001/031 022/044 029/048 028/049 030/052 031/055 033/056
    10/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U
HDN 002/028 012/047 025/051 026/051 028/055 030/059 030/059
    00/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
MLS 901/019 006/046 025/048 027/048 028/051 029/055 032/057
    20/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 902/018 003/042 020/047 024/047 026/051 027/056 029/057
    10/B    00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 903/012 000/041 021/046 024/045 025/047 026/051 029/053
    20/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 907/018 005/041 021/045 022/044 024/050 027/055 029/056
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11
      AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 032151
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
251 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WEATHER SYSTEM LAST NIGHT CARVED OUT A NICE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL RESPONSE. SO I ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OF PERHAPS FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. FURTHER
WEST...THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS. SO I DID ADD SOME
SPOTTY LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND NEARBY ADJACENT AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRISK WIND OVER THE COLD AIR MASS DOES DRIVE DOWN
THE WIND CHILLS OUT EAST. AS SUCH I WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM
WEDNESDAY.

TOMORROW...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS. I AM GOING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DEEP NEW
SNOW THERE. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW NOW THAT WE ARE IN TO EARLY MARCH.

EVEN BETTER WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS THURSDAY
...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY
WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE...REMOVED
POPS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
SHOWER TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM...DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM KMLS TO KBHK WHERE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
AND MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 016/046 029/050 029/050 030/054 033/058 033/058
    00/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
LVM 001/031 022/044 029/048 028/049 030/052 031/055 033/056
    10/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U
HDN 002/028 012/047 025/051 026/051 028/055 030/059 030/059
    00/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
MLS 901/019 006/046 025/048 027/048 028/051 029/055 032/057
    20/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 902/018 003/042 020/047 024/047 026/051 027/056 029/057
    10/B    00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 903/012 000/041 021/046 024/045 025/047 026/051 029/053
    20/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 907/018 005/041 021/045 022/044 024/050 027/055 029/056
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11
      AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 032151
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
251 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

WEATHER SYSTEM LAST NIGHT CARVED OUT A NICE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
OUR REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS
LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL RESPONSE. SO I ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
OF PERHAPS FLURRIES IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. FURTHER
WEST...THE HRRR IS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS. SO I DID ADD SOME
SPOTTY LOW POPS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND NEARBY ADJACENT AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRISK WIND OVER THE COLD AIR MASS DOES DRIVE DOWN
THE WIND CHILLS OUT EAST. AS SUCH I WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM
WEDNESDAY.

TOMORROW...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LATE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME WARMING OVER TODAYS HIGHS. I AM GOING LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DEEP NEW
SNOW THERE. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY BE ABLE TO MELT OFF MOST OF THE
SNOW NOW THAT WE ARE IN TO EARLY MARCH.

EVEN BETTER WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS THURSDAY
...BUT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY
WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING FURTHER WEST. IN ANY CASE...REMOVED
POPS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW
SHOWER TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM...DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM KMLS TO KBHK WHERE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
AND MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/029 016/046 029/050 029/050 030/054 033/058 033/058
    00/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
LVM 001/031 022/044 029/048 028/049 030/052 031/055 033/056
    10/B    00/N    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U
HDN 002/028 012/047 025/051 026/051 028/055 030/059 030/059
    00/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
MLS 901/019 006/046 025/048 027/048 028/051 029/055 032/057
    20/U    00/B    01/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 902/018 003/042 020/047 024/047 026/051 027/056 029/057
    10/B    00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 903/012 000/041 021/046 024/045 025/047 026/051 029/053
    20/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 907/018 005/041 021/045 022/044 024/050 027/055 029/056
    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/B    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11
      AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031819
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1119 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO CANCEL REMAINING HIGHLIGHTS FROM SUOTHERN BIG HORN TO
SHERDIAN FOOTHILLS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE FRONT HAS NOT BROUGHT IN AS COLD OF AIR AS EXPECT. ALSO...THE
SNOW HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. SHERIDAN COUNTY AND EAST ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
STATE LINE COULD SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES AS THERE IS BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE YOU HAVE ENERGY BOTH FROM
THE WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH WYOMING AND THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD THIS MORNING...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW...BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS
BELOW. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS FEATURE CONSISTENTLY. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO CHANGE
WEEKEND PLANS OVER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NICE TIME TO GET OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSHR AND THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WHERE LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES DUE TO SOME
LOW CLOUDS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 020 001/028 013/045 028/050 028/050 029/053 032/056
    0/B 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 018 902/030 016/043 028/048 027/049 029/051 030/053
    1/B 00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/B    11/U
HDN 021 001/028 010/046 025/051 025/051 027/054 029/057
    0/B 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 016 904/018 003/044 026/048 026/048 027/050 028/053
    0/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 017 904/018 002/041 021/047 023/047 025/050 026/054
    0/E 10/B    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B    10/B
BHK 013 908/012 901/039 022/046 023/045 024/046 025/049
    0/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 014 908/019 005/039 021/045 021/044 023/049 026/053
    2/J 00/B    00/B    00/B    22/W    11/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031819
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1119 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO CANCEL REMAINING HIGHLIGHTS FROM SUOTHERN BIG HORN TO
SHERDIAN FOOTHILLS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE FRONT HAS NOT BROUGHT IN AS COLD OF AIR AS EXPECT. ALSO...THE
SNOW HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. SHERIDAN COUNTY AND EAST ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
STATE LINE COULD SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES AS THERE IS BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE YOU HAVE ENERGY BOTH FROM
THE WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH WYOMING AND THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD THIS MORNING...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW...BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS
BELOW. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS FEATURE CONSISTENTLY. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO CHANGE
WEEKEND PLANS OVER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NICE TIME TO GET OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSHR AND THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WHERE LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES DUE TO SOME
LOW CLOUDS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 020 001/028 013/045 028/050 028/050 029/053 032/056
    0/B 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 018 902/030 016/043 028/048 027/049 029/051 030/053
    1/B 00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/B    11/U
HDN 021 001/028 010/046 025/051 025/051 027/054 029/057
    0/B 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 016 904/018 003/044 026/048 026/048 027/050 028/053
    0/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 017 904/018 002/041 021/047 023/047 025/050 026/054
    0/E 10/B    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B    10/B
BHK 013 908/012 901/039 022/046 023/045 024/046 025/049
    0/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 014 908/019 005/039 021/045 021/044 023/049 026/053
    2/J 00/B    00/B    00/B    22/W    11/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031634
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF MAIN SNOW BAND SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN BIG
HORN COUNTY AT THIS TIME. JUST LIGHT SNOW UNDER IT BEING
REPORTED...NOTHING HEAVY. HAVE LEFT WARNINGS GOING UNTIL NOON FOR
SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE
CANCELLED ANY REMAINING HIGHLIGHTS. RED LODGE WAS THE BIG WINNER
LAST NIGHT WITH 10-14 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. ONE TO THREE INCHES
COMMON AROUND BILLINGS. MAIN TOPIC FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE EAST
TONIGHT. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE FRONT HAS NOT BROUGHT IN AS COLD OF AIR AS EXPECT. ALSO...THE
SNOW HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. SHERIDAN COUNTY AND EAST ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
STATE LINE COULD SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES AS THERE IS BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE YOU HAVE ENERGY BOTH FROM
THE WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH WYOMING AND THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD THIS MORNING...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW...BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS
BELOW. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS FEATURE CONSISTENTLY. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO CHANGE
WEEKEND PLANS OVER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NICE TIME TO GET OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSHR AND THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WHERE LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES DUE TO SOME
LOW CLOUDS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 020 001/028 013/045 028/050 028/050 029/053 032/056
    2/S 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 018 902/030 016/043 028/048 027/049 029/051 030/053
    1/B 00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/B    11/U
HDN 021 001/028 010/046 025/051 025/051 027/054 029/057
    4/S 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 016 904/018 003/044 026/048 026/048 027/050 028/053
    0/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 017 904/018 002/041 021/047 023/047 025/050 026/054
    2/S 10/B    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B    10/B
BHK 013 908/012 901/039 022/046 023/045 024/046 025/049
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 014 908/019 005/039 021/045 021/044 023/049 026/053
    +/S 00/B    00/B    00/B    22/W    11/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONE
      38.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONE
      99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031634
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF MAIN SNOW BAND SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN BIG
HORN COUNTY AT THIS TIME. JUST LIGHT SNOW UNDER IT BEING
REPORTED...NOTHING HEAVY. HAVE LEFT WARNINGS GOING UNTIL NOON FOR
SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE
CANCELLED ANY REMAINING HIGHLIGHTS. RED LODGE WAS THE BIG WINNER
LAST NIGHT WITH 10-14 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. ONE TO THREE INCHES
COMMON AROUND BILLINGS. MAIN TOPIC FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE EAST
TONIGHT. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE FRONT HAS NOT BROUGHT IN AS COLD OF AIR AS EXPECT. ALSO...THE
SNOW HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. SHERIDAN COUNTY AND EAST ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
STATE LINE COULD SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES AS THERE IS BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE YOU HAVE ENERGY BOTH FROM
THE WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH WYOMING AND THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD THIS MORNING...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW...BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS
BELOW. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS FEATURE CONSISTENTLY. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO CHANGE
WEEKEND PLANS OVER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NICE TIME TO GET OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSHR AND THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WHERE LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES DUE TO SOME
LOW CLOUDS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 020 001/028 013/045 028/050 028/050 029/053 032/056
    2/S 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 018 902/030 016/043 028/048 027/049 029/051 030/053
    1/B 00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/B    11/U
HDN 021 001/028 010/046 025/051 025/051 027/054 029/057
    4/S 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 016 904/018 003/044 026/048 026/048 027/050 028/053
    0/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 017 904/018 002/041 021/047 023/047 025/050 026/054
    2/S 10/B    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B    10/B
BHK 013 908/012 901/039 022/046 023/045 024/046 025/049
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 014 908/019 005/039 021/045 021/044 023/049 026/053
    +/S 00/B    00/B    00/B    22/W    11/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONE
      38.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONE
      99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031634
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF MAIN SNOW BAND SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN BIG
HORN COUNTY AT THIS TIME. JUST LIGHT SNOW UNDER IT BEING
REPORTED...NOTHING HEAVY. HAVE LEFT WARNINGS GOING UNTIL NOON FOR
SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE
CANCELLED ANY REMAINING HIGHLIGHTS. RED LODGE WAS THE BIG WINNER
LAST NIGHT WITH 10-14 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. ONE TO THREE INCHES
COMMON AROUND BILLINGS. MAIN TOPIC FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE EAST
TONIGHT. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE FRONT HAS NOT BROUGHT IN AS COLD OF AIR AS EXPECT. ALSO...THE
SNOW HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. SHERIDAN COUNTY AND EAST ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
STATE LINE COULD SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES AS THERE IS BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE YOU HAVE ENERGY BOTH FROM
THE WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH WYOMING AND THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD THIS MORNING...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW...BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS
BELOW. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS FEATURE CONSISTENTLY. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO CHANGE
WEEKEND PLANS OVER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NICE TIME TO GET OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSHR AND THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WHERE LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES DUE TO SOME
LOW CLOUDS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 020 001/028 013/045 028/050 028/050 029/053 032/056
    2/S 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 018 902/030 016/043 028/048 027/049 029/051 030/053
    1/B 00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/B    11/U
HDN 021 001/028 010/046 025/051 025/051 027/054 029/057
    4/S 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 016 904/018 003/044 026/048 026/048 027/050 028/053
    0/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 017 904/018 002/041 021/047 023/047 025/050 026/054
    2/S 10/B    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B    10/B
BHK 013 908/012 901/039 022/046 023/045 024/046 025/049
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 014 908/019 005/039 021/045 021/044 023/049 026/053
    +/S 00/B    00/B    00/B    22/W    11/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONE
      38.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONE
      99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031634
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF MAIN SNOW BAND SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN BIG
HORN COUNTY AT THIS TIME. JUST LIGHT SNOW UNDER IT BEING
REPORTED...NOTHING HEAVY. HAVE LEFT WARNINGS GOING UNTIL NOON FOR
SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE
CANCELLED ANY REMAINING HIGHLIGHTS. RED LODGE WAS THE BIG WINNER
LAST NIGHT WITH 10-14 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. ONE TO THREE INCHES
COMMON AROUND BILLINGS. MAIN TOPIC FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE EAST
TONIGHT. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE FRONT HAS NOT BROUGHT IN AS COLD OF AIR AS EXPECT. ALSO...THE
SNOW HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. SHERIDAN COUNTY AND EAST ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
STATE LINE COULD SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES AS THERE IS BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE YOU HAVE ENERGY BOTH FROM
THE WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH WYOMING AND THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD THIS MORNING...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW...BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS
BELOW. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS FEATURE CONSISTENTLY. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO CHANGE
WEEKEND PLANS OVER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NICE TIME TO GET OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SNOW HAS ENDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR KSHR AND THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WHERE LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS MAY BE OBSCURED AT TIMES DUE TO SOME
LOW CLOUDS. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 020 001/028 013/045 028/050 028/050 029/053 032/056
    2/S 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 018 902/030 016/043 028/048 027/049 029/051 030/053
    1/B 00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/B    11/U
HDN 021 001/028 010/046 025/051 025/051 027/054 029/057
    4/S 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 016 904/018 003/044 026/048 026/048 027/050 028/053
    0/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 017 904/018 002/041 021/047 023/047 025/050 026/054
    2/S 10/B    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B    10/B
BHK 013 908/012 901/039 022/046 023/045 024/046 025/049
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 014 908/019 005/039 021/045 021/044 023/049 026/053
    +/S 00/B    00/B    00/B    22/W    11/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONE
      38.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONE
      99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031020
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
320 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE FRONT HAS NOT BROUGHT IN AS COLD OF AIR AS EXPECT. ALSO...THE
SNOW HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN
TO TAPPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. SHERIDAN COUNTY AND EAST ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
STATE LINE COULD SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES AS THERE IS BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE YOU HAVE ENERGY BOTH FROM
THE WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH WYOMING AND THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD THIS MORNING...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW...BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS
BELOW. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS FEATURE CONSISTENTLY. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO CHANGE
WEEKEND PLANS OVER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NICE TIME TO GET OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO EKALAKA LINE. THIS AREA OF SNOW AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS ENERGY
SHIFTS EAST...WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING VFR BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF AREA MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 001/028 013/045 028/050 028/050 029/053 032/056
    4/J 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 018 902/030 016/043 028/048 027/049 029/051 030/053
    5/J 00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/B    11/U
HDN 023 001/028 010/046 025/051 025/051 027/054 029/057
    4/J 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 017 904/018 003/044 026/048 026/048 027/050 028/053
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 018 904/018 002/041 021/047 023/047 025/050 026/054
    4/J 10/B    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B    10/B
BHK 014 908/012 901/039 022/046 023/045 024/046 025/049
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 014 908/019 005/039 021/045 021/044 023/049 026/053
    9/J 00/B    00/B    00/B    22/W    11/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
      34-38-39-56-66-67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR
      ZONES 36-37-58.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
      98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031020
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
320 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE FRONT HAS NOT BROUGHT IN AS COLD OF AIR AS EXPECT. ALSO...THE
SNOW HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN
TO TAPPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. SHERIDAN COUNTY AND EAST ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
STATE LINE COULD SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES AS THERE IS BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE YOU HAVE ENERGY BOTH FROM
THE WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH WYOMING AND THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD THIS MORNING...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW...BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS
BELOW. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS FEATURE CONSISTENTLY. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO CHANGE
WEEKEND PLANS OVER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NICE TIME TO GET OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO EKALAKA LINE. THIS AREA OF SNOW AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS ENERGY
SHIFTS EAST...WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING VFR BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF AREA MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 001/028 013/045 028/050 028/050 029/053 032/056
    4/J 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 018 902/030 016/043 028/048 027/049 029/051 030/053
    5/J 00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/B    11/U
HDN 023 001/028 010/046 025/051 025/051 027/054 029/057
    4/J 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 017 904/018 003/044 026/048 026/048 027/050 028/053
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 018 904/018 002/041 021/047 023/047 025/050 026/054
    4/J 10/B    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B    10/B
BHK 014 908/012 901/039 022/046 023/045 024/046 025/049
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 014 908/019 005/039 021/045 021/044 023/049 026/053
    9/J 00/B    00/B    00/B    22/W    11/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
      34-38-39-56-66-67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR
      ZONES 36-37-58.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
      98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031020
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
320 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE FRONT HAS NOT BROUGHT IN AS COLD OF AIR AS EXPECT. ALSO...THE
SNOW HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN
TO TAPPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. SHERIDAN COUNTY AND EAST ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
STATE LINE COULD SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES AS THERE IS BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE YOU HAVE ENERGY BOTH FROM
THE WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH WYOMING AND THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD THIS MORNING...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW...BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS
BELOW. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS FEATURE CONSISTENTLY. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO CHANGE
WEEKEND PLANS OVER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NICE TIME TO GET OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO EKALAKA LINE. THIS AREA OF SNOW AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS ENERGY
SHIFTS EAST...WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING VFR BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF AREA MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 001/028 013/045 028/050 028/050 029/053 032/056
    4/J 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 018 902/030 016/043 028/048 027/049 029/051 030/053
    5/J 00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/B    11/U
HDN 023 001/028 010/046 025/051 025/051 027/054 029/057
    4/J 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 017 904/018 003/044 026/048 026/048 027/050 028/053
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 018 904/018 002/041 021/047 023/047 025/050 026/054
    4/J 10/B    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B    10/B
BHK 014 908/012 901/039 022/046 023/045 024/046 025/049
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 014 908/019 005/039 021/045 021/044 023/049 026/053
    9/J 00/B    00/B    00/B    22/W    11/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
      34-38-39-56-66-67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR
      ZONES 36-37-58.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
      98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 031020
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
320 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE FRONT HAS NOT BROUGHT IN AS COLD OF AIR AS EXPECT. ALSO...THE
SNOW HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN
TO TAPPER OFF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS. SHERIDAN COUNTY AND EAST ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING
STATE LINE COULD SEE SEVERAL MORE INCHES AS THERE IS BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE YOU HAVE ENERGY BOTH FROM
THE WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH WYOMING AND THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MONTANA. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAINING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLD THIS MORNING...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW...BUT WILL RISE TO ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THEY ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS
BELOW. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS FEATURE CONSISTENTLY. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
FEATURE BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING TO CHANGE
WEEKEND PLANS OVER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NICE TIME TO GET OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO EKALAKA LINE. THIS AREA OF SNOW AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS ENERGY
SHIFTS EAST...WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING VFR BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS OF AREA MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 001/028 013/045 028/050 028/050 029/053 032/056
    4/J 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/U
LVM 018 902/030 016/043 028/048 027/049 029/051 030/053
    5/J 00/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/B    11/U
HDN 023 001/028 010/046 025/051 025/051 027/054 029/057
    4/J 00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 017 904/018 003/044 026/048 026/048 027/050 028/053
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 018 904/018 002/041 021/047 023/047 025/050 026/054
    4/J 10/B    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B    10/B
BHK 014 908/012 901/039 022/046 023/045 024/046 025/049
    1/N 20/B    00/B    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 014 908/019 005/039 021/045 021/044 023/049 026/053
    9/J 00/B    00/B    00/B    22/W    11/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
      34-38-39-56-66-67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR
      ZONES 36-37-58.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR ZONES
      98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030413
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
913 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOWING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND JUST RECEIVED A 5 INCHES IN 3
HOUR REPORT FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF ABSAROKEE IN THE BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS ZONE. RADAR IS SHOWING A STEADY STAE TO CURRENT COVERAGE
WHICH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FORECASTED BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. NO UPDATES AT
THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS GOING. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM TO INVADE OUR FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT LEAVING A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER US FOR TUESDAY. MY
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOWPACKED
ROADS AND SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS IS PRIMARILY
TRUE IN THE JUDITH GAP AREA BUT ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 INTO
THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO FROM FORT SMITH TO DAYTON AND
DOWN INTO STORY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ACCORDING TO
MODEL PROGGS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES AT 8 PM THIS EVENING LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS. FURTHER
EAST...MODELS ARE NOT COMING UP WITH MUCH QPF OVER THE PLAINS AND
WE DID LOWER FORECAST AMOUNTS SOME ON THE WSW PRODUCT FOR THE
PLAINS....BUT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
THE PLAINS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...AND DOWN INTO THE SHERIDAN
FOOTHILLS EARLY TUESDAY. THE DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE GENERALLY END BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE LIFT AND SATURATED LAYERS LOW IN THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA REGION TONIGHT. SO DESPITE SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES THE HIGH COUNTRY MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE FOOTHILLS.
HOWEVER...RED LODGE MOUNTAIN AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE
SOME HEAVY SNOW ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES...SO WILL NOT MESS WITH
DOWNGRADING THE WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE EVENT EVEN BEGINS
AS THIS WOULD LEAD TO PUBLIC/MEDIA CONFUSION.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS WHERE WE EXPECT TO SEE SNOW. VERY COLD AIR MASS
CERTAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -15C FOR
BILLINGS. THIS MAY BE A SOLID 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST EC BRINGS A DECENT PIECE OF
ENERGY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTER IDAHO CLIPPING OUR
WESTERN ZONES...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS WAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH
AND SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT POP CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SEE IF MODELS PHASE
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THAT THE EC PERIODICALLY BRINGS SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS DOES NOT. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS AGREE TO THE POINT THAT NEITHER IS BRINGING ANY COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE
IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S WHEREAS THE GFS IS SHOWING MOSTLY UPPER 50S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. SNOW HAS SPREAD ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROUNDUP TO SHERIDAN....WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CIGS AND VIS COMMON IN
SNOW.

IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF
THIS LINE INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY. AREAS EAST OF THE LINE WILL
ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS...BUT LESS FREQUENTLY...AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/016 901/028 010/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    83/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    01/U    10/U
LVM 000/014 904/028 015/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    +4/S    00/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    01/B    10/B
HDN 007/019 901/027 008/047 022/055 026/052 026/055 027/057
    73/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/U    10/U
MLS 003/013 907/017 901/043 023/050 026/048 027/047 026/049
    41/N    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
4BQ 005/015 905/017 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/050 023/052
    72/S    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
BHK 001/011 909/011 903/040 021/046 023/046 025/044 022/046
    32/J    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/B
SHR 004/009 910/018 005/041 019/049 023/048 025/050 024/052
    96/S    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    01/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030413
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
913 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOWING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND JUST RECEIVED A 5 INCHES IN 3
HOUR REPORT FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF ABSAROKEE IN THE BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS ZONE. RADAR IS SHOWING A STEADY STAE TO CURRENT COVERAGE
WHICH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FORECASTED BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. NO UPDATES AT
THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS GOING. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM TO INVADE OUR FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT LEAVING A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER US FOR TUESDAY. MY
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOWPACKED
ROADS AND SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS IS PRIMARILY
TRUE IN THE JUDITH GAP AREA BUT ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 INTO
THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO FROM FORT SMITH TO DAYTON AND
DOWN INTO STORY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ACCORDING TO
MODEL PROGGS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES AT 8 PM THIS EVENING LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS. FURTHER
EAST...MODELS ARE NOT COMING UP WITH MUCH QPF OVER THE PLAINS AND
WE DID LOWER FORECAST AMOUNTS SOME ON THE WSW PRODUCT FOR THE
PLAINS....BUT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
THE PLAINS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...AND DOWN INTO THE SHERIDAN
FOOTHILLS EARLY TUESDAY. THE DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE GENERALLY END BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE LIFT AND SATURATED LAYERS LOW IN THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA REGION TONIGHT. SO DESPITE SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES THE HIGH COUNTRY MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE FOOTHILLS.
HOWEVER...RED LODGE MOUNTAIN AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE
SOME HEAVY SNOW ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES...SO WILL NOT MESS WITH
DOWNGRADING THE WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE EVENT EVEN BEGINS
AS THIS WOULD LEAD TO PUBLIC/MEDIA CONFUSION.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS WHERE WE EXPECT TO SEE SNOW. VERY COLD AIR MASS
CERTAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -15C FOR
BILLINGS. THIS MAY BE A SOLID 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST EC BRINGS A DECENT PIECE OF
ENERGY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTER IDAHO CLIPPING OUR
WESTERN ZONES...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS WAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH
AND SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT POP CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SEE IF MODELS PHASE
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THAT THE EC PERIODICALLY BRINGS SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS DOES NOT. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS AGREE TO THE POINT THAT NEITHER IS BRINGING ANY COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE
IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S WHEREAS THE GFS IS SHOWING MOSTLY UPPER 50S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. SNOW HAS SPREAD ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROUNDUP TO SHERIDAN....WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CIGS AND VIS COMMON IN
SNOW.

IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF
THIS LINE INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY. AREAS EAST OF THE LINE WILL
ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS...BUT LESS FREQUENTLY...AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/016 901/028 010/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    83/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    01/U    10/U
LVM 000/014 904/028 015/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    +4/S    00/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    01/B    10/B
HDN 007/019 901/027 008/047 022/055 026/052 026/055 027/057
    73/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/U    10/U
MLS 003/013 907/017 901/043 023/050 026/048 027/047 026/049
    41/N    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
4BQ 005/015 905/017 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/050 023/052
    72/S    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
BHK 001/011 909/011 903/040 021/046 023/046 025/044 022/046
    32/J    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/B
SHR 004/009 910/018 005/041 019/049 023/048 025/050 024/052
    96/S    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    01/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022227
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
327 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM TO INVADE OUR FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT LEAVING A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER US FOR TUESDAY. MY
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOWPACKED
ROADS AND SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS IS PRIMARILY
TRUE IN THE JUDITH GAP AREA BUT ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 INTO
THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO FROM FORT SMITH TO DAYTON AND
DOWN INTO STORY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ACCORDING TO
MODEL PROGGS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES AT 8 PM THIS EVENING LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS. FURTHER
EAST...MODELS ARE NOT COMING UP WITH MUCH QPF OVER THE PLAINS AND
WE DID LOWER FORECAST AMOUNTS SOME ON THE WSW PRODUCT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS/PLAINS....BUT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL
BE AN ISSUE THERE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...AND DOWN INTO THE SHERIDAN
FOOTHILLS EARLY TUESDAY. THE DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE GENERALLY END BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE LIFT AND SATURATED LAYERS LOW IN THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA REGION TONIGHT. SO DESPITE SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES THE HIGH COUNTRY MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE FOOTHILLS.
HOWEVER...RED LODGE MOUNTAIN AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE
SOME HEAVY SNOW ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES...SO WILL NOT MESS WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS WHERE WE EXPECT TO SEE SNOW. VERY COLD AIR MASS
CERTAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -15C FOR
BILLINGS. THIS WILL BE A SOLID 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST EC BRINGS A DECENT PIECE OF
ENERGY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTER IDAHO CLIPPING OUR
WESTERN ZONES...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS WAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH
AND SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT POP CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SEE IF MODELS PHASE
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THAT THE EC PERIODICALLY BRINGS SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS DOES NOT. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS AGREE TO THE POINT THAT NEITHER IS BRINGING ANY COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE
IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S WHEREAS THE GFS IS SHOWING MOSTLY UPPER 50S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS. CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-
KSHR LINE THIS EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING
INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/016 901/028 010/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    83/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    01/U    10/U
LVM 000/014 904/028 015/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    +4/S    00/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    01/B    10/B
HDN 007/019 901/027 008/047 022/055 026/052 026/055 027/057
    73/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/U    10/U
MLS 003/013 907/017 901/043 023/050 026/048 027/047 026/049
    41/N    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
4BQ 005/015 905/017 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/050 023/052
    72/S    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
BHK 001/011 909/011 903/040 021/046 023/046 025/044 022/046
    32/J    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/B
SHR 004/009 910/018 005/041 019/049 023/048 025/050 024/052
    96/S    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    01/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022227
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
327 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM TO INVADE OUR FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT LEAVING A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER US FOR TUESDAY. MY
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOWPACKED
ROADS AND SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS IS PRIMARILY
TRUE IN THE JUDITH GAP AREA BUT ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 INTO
THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO FROM FORT SMITH TO DAYTON AND
DOWN INTO STORY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ACCORDING TO
MODEL PROGGS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES AT 8 PM THIS EVENING LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS. FURTHER
EAST...MODELS ARE NOT COMING UP WITH MUCH QPF OVER THE PLAINS AND
WE DID LOWER FORECAST AMOUNTS SOME ON THE WSW PRODUCT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS/PLAINS....BUT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL
BE AN ISSUE THERE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...AND DOWN INTO THE SHERIDAN
FOOTHILLS EARLY TUESDAY. THE DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE GENERALLY END BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE LIFT AND SATURATED LAYERS LOW IN THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA REGION TONIGHT. SO DESPITE SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES THE HIGH COUNTRY MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE FOOTHILLS.
HOWEVER...RED LODGE MOUNTAIN AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE
SOME HEAVY SNOW ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES...SO WILL NOT MESS WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS WHERE WE EXPECT TO SEE SNOW. VERY COLD AIR MASS
CERTAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -15C FOR
BILLINGS. THIS WILL BE A SOLID 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST EC BRINGS A DECENT PIECE OF
ENERGY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTER IDAHO CLIPPING OUR
WESTERN ZONES...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS WAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH
AND SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT POP CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SEE IF MODELS PHASE
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THAT THE EC PERIODICALLY BRINGS SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS DOES NOT. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS AGREE TO THE POINT THAT NEITHER IS BRINGING ANY COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE
IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S WHEREAS THE GFS IS SHOWING MOSTLY UPPER 50S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS. CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-
KSHR LINE THIS EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING
INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/016 901/028 010/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    83/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    01/U    10/U
LVM 000/014 904/028 015/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    +4/S    00/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    01/B    10/B
HDN 007/019 901/027 008/047 022/055 026/052 026/055 027/057
    73/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/U    10/U
MLS 003/013 907/017 901/043 023/050 026/048 027/047 026/049
    41/N    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
4BQ 005/015 905/017 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/050 023/052
    72/S    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
BHK 001/011 909/011 903/040 021/046 023/046 025/044 022/046
    32/J    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/B
SHR 004/009 910/018 005/041 019/049 023/048 025/050 024/052
    96/S    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    01/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022227
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
327 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM TO INVADE OUR FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT LEAVING A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER US FOR TUESDAY. MY
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOWPACKED
ROADS AND SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS IS PRIMARILY
TRUE IN THE JUDITH GAP AREA BUT ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 INTO
THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO FROM FORT SMITH TO DAYTON AND
DOWN INTO STORY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ACCORDING TO
MODEL PROGGS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES AT 8 PM THIS EVENING LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS. FURTHER
EAST...MODELS ARE NOT COMING UP WITH MUCH QPF OVER THE PLAINS AND
WE DID LOWER FORECAST AMOUNTS SOME ON THE WSW PRODUCT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS/PLAINS....BUT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL
BE AN ISSUE THERE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...AND DOWN INTO THE SHERIDAN
FOOTHILLS EARLY TUESDAY. THE DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE GENERALLY END BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE LIFT AND SATURATED LAYERS LOW IN THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA REGION TONIGHT. SO DESPITE SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES THE HIGH COUNTRY MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE FOOTHILLS.
HOWEVER...RED LODGE MOUNTAIN AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE
SOME HEAVY SNOW ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES...SO WILL NOT MESS WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS WHERE WE EXPECT TO SEE SNOW. VERY COLD AIR MASS
CERTAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -15C FOR
BILLINGS. THIS WILL BE A SOLID 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST EC BRINGS A DECENT PIECE OF
ENERGY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTER IDAHO CLIPPING OUR
WESTERN ZONES...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS WAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH
AND SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT POP CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SEE IF MODELS PHASE
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THAT THE EC PERIODICALLY BRINGS SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS DOES NOT. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS AGREE TO THE POINT THAT NEITHER IS BRINGING ANY COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE
IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S WHEREAS THE GFS IS SHOWING MOSTLY UPPER 50S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS. CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-
KSHR LINE THIS EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING
INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/016 901/028 010/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    83/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    01/U    10/U
LVM 000/014 904/028 015/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    +4/S    00/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    01/B    10/B
HDN 007/019 901/027 008/047 022/055 026/052 026/055 027/057
    73/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/U    10/U
MLS 003/013 907/017 901/043 023/050 026/048 027/047 026/049
    41/N    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
4BQ 005/015 905/017 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/050 023/052
    72/S    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
BHK 001/011 909/011 903/040 021/046 023/046 025/044 022/046
    32/J    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/B
SHR 004/009 910/018 005/041 019/049 023/048 025/050 024/052
    96/S    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    01/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 022227
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
327 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM TO INVADE OUR FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT LEAVING A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER US FOR TUESDAY. MY
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW LEADING TO VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOWPACKED
ROADS AND SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS IS PRIMARILY
TRUE IN THE JUDITH GAP AREA BUT ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 INTO
THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO FROM FORT SMITH TO DAYTON AND
DOWN INTO STORY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ACCORDING TO
MODEL PROGGS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES AT 8 PM THIS EVENING LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS. FURTHER
EAST...MODELS ARE NOT COMING UP WITH MUCH QPF OVER THE PLAINS AND
WE DID LOWER FORECAST AMOUNTS SOME ON THE WSW PRODUCT FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS/PLAINS....BUT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL
BE AN ISSUE THERE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...AND DOWN INTO THE SHERIDAN
FOOTHILLS EARLY TUESDAY. THE DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE GENERALLY END BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE LIFT AND SATURATED LAYERS LOW IN THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA REGION TONIGHT. SO DESPITE SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES THE HIGH COUNTRY MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE FOOTHILLS.
HOWEVER...RED LODGE MOUNTAIN AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE
SOME HEAVY SNOW ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES...SO WILL NOT MESS WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS WHERE WE EXPECT TO SEE SNOW. VERY COLD AIR MASS
CERTAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -15C FOR
BILLINGS. THIS WILL BE A SOLID 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE GREATLY BY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST EC BRINGS A DECENT PIECE OF
ENERGY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTER IDAHO CLIPPING OUR
WESTERN ZONES...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THIS WAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH
AND SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT POP CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SEE IF MODELS PHASE
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THAT THE EC PERIODICALLY BRINGS SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS DOES NOT. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS AGREE TO THE POINT THAT NEITHER IS BRINGING ANY COLD
AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE
IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S WHEREAS THE GFS IS SHOWING MOSTLY UPPER 50S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS. CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-
KSHR LINE THIS EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING
INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/016 901/028 010/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    83/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    21/B    01/U    10/U
LVM 000/014 904/028 015/045 028/052 030/053 032/054 031/056
    +4/S    00/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    01/B    10/B
HDN 007/019 901/027 008/047 022/055 026/052 026/055 027/057
    73/S    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/U    10/U
MLS 003/013 907/017 901/043 023/050 026/048 027/047 026/049
    41/N    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
4BQ 005/015 905/017 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/050 023/052
    72/S    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/U
BHK 001/011 909/011 903/040 021/046 023/046 025/044 022/046
    32/J    20/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    01/B    10/B
SHR 004/009 910/018 005/041 019/049 023/048 025/050 024/052
    96/S    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    01/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021632
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
932 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME NOTABLE CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE WSW
PRODUCT. BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN SO FAR FROM 12Z MODEL DATA AND
TRENDS...SOME OF OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEM OVERDONE. I DO NOT PLAN
ON CHANGING ANY OF OUR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE RE-
WRITTEN THE WSW PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND SLICK ROADS RATHER THAN SNOW AMOUNTS. I
HAVE REDUCED SNOWFALL TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS FROM
ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS AND EASTWARD. THE MAIN IMPACT AREA STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY AREAS WHERE WIND AND SNOWFALL WILL
MAKE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL NOT SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT NORTH FACING SLOPES COULD SEE
AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FOOT SUCH AS AT RED LODGE MOUNTAIN. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CALGARY. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUDITH GAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...MAINLY
WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING. HIGHS WILL BE EARLY...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE IN
THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...WHERE OVER A
FOOT OF NEW SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. THE FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE 6
TO 12 INCHES. THE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS...AND HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE WARNINGS...FROM HARLOWTON...TO
ROUNDUP...THROUGH BILLINGS AND HARDIN...AND POWDER RIVER AND
CUSTER COUNTIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TAPPER OFF BY TOMORROW MORNING
AND WILL MOVE OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...WINDS WILL BE STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT...20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES..ESPECIALLY IN THE JUDITH GAP
AREA AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. ALSO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM. A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BUT MODELS
HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT
A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WASHES OUT MOST OF THIS ENERGY
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST. THE ONE TIME FRAME THAT
SHOWS THE MOST PROMISE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. YESTERDAYS GFS RUNS SHOWED A DECENT DISTURBANCE
SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND THE LATEST ECMWF NOW
SHOWS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS HAS THIS
FEATURE NOW STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN
SOME LOW POPS FOR WESTERN AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL WAVE
AND WILL SEE IF CONSISTENCY IMPROVES OVER TIME. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS PUSHING 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z RESULTING IN
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. BY 00Z...CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS
SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-KSHR LINE THIS EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 003/015 905/027 009/044 028/052 029/051 030/052
    1/B 85/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U
LVM 037 001/012 906/029 015/044 027/051 029/051 030/052
    2/W 95/J    10/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    11/B
HDN 039 007/017 904/027 007/047 022/055 026/052 026/053
    0/B 75/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
MLS 036 002/011 906/014 901/042 022/049 024/046 025/045
    0/B 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 038 004/014 905/016 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/048
    0/B 73/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
BHK 034 000/010 909/011 902/040 019/047 021/044 021/042
    0/U 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 037 005/010 910/016 005/040 019/048 024/045 022/048
    0/B 97/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
      NOON MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021632
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
932 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME NOTABLE CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE WSW
PRODUCT. BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN SO FAR FROM 12Z MODEL DATA AND
TRENDS...SOME OF OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEM OVERDONE. I DO NOT PLAN
ON CHANGING ANY OF OUR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE RE-
WRITTEN THE WSW PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND SLICK ROADS RATHER THAN SNOW AMOUNTS. I
HAVE REDUCED SNOWFALL TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS FROM
ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS AND EASTWARD. THE MAIN IMPACT AREA STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY AREAS WHERE WIND AND SNOWFALL WILL
MAKE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL NOT SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT NORTH FACING SLOPES COULD SEE
AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FOOT SUCH AS AT RED LODGE MOUNTAIN. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CALGARY. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUDITH GAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...MAINLY
WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING. HIGHS WILL BE EARLY...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE IN
THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...WHERE OVER A
FOOT OF NEW SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. THE FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE 6
TO 12 INCHES. THE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS...AND HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE WARNINGS...FROM HARLOWTON...TO
ROUNDUP...THROUGH BILLINGS AND HARDIN...AND POWDER RIVER AND
CUSTER COUNTIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TAPPER OFF BY TOMORROW MORNING
AND WILL MOVE OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...WINDS WILL BE STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT...20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES..ESPECIALLY IN THE JUDITH GAP
AREA AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. ALSO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM. A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BUT MODELS
HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT
A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WASHES OUT MOST OF THIS ENERGY
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST. THE ONE TIME FRAME THAT
SHOWS THE MOST PROMISE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. YESTERDAYS GFS RUNS SHOWED A DECENT DISTURBANCE
SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND THE LATEST ECMWF NOW
SHOWS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS HAS THIS
FEATURE NOW STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN
SOME LOW POPS FOR WESTERN AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL WAVE
AND WILL SEE IF CONSISTENCY IMPROVES OVER TIME. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS PUSHING 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z RESULTING IN
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. BY 00Z...CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS
SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-KSHR LINE THIS EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 003/015 905/027 009/044 028/052 029/051 030/052
    1/B 85/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U
LVM 037 001/012 906/029 015/044 027/051 029/051 030/052
    2/W 95/J    10/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    11/B
HDN 039 007/017 904/027 007/047 022/055 026/052 026/053
    0/B 75/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
MLS 036 002/011 906/014 901/042 022/049 024/046 025/045
    0/B 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 038 004/014 905/016 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/048
    0/B 73/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
BHK 034 000/010 909/011 902/040 019/047 021/044 021/042
    0/U 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 037 005/010 910/016 005/040 019/048 024/045 022/048
    0/B 97/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
      NOON MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021632
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
932 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME NOTABLE CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE WSW
PRODUCT. BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN SO FAR FROM 12Z MODEL DATA AND
TRENDS...SOME OF OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEM OVERDONE. I DO NOT PLAN
ON CHANGING ANY OF OUR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE RE-
WRITTEN THE WSW PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND SLICK ROADS RATHER THAN SNOW AMOUNTS. I
HAVE REDUCED SNOWFALL TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS FROM
ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS AND EASTWARD. THE MAIN IMPACT AREA STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY AREAS WHERE WIND AND SNOWFALL WILL
MAKE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL NOT SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT NORTH FACING SLOPES COULD SEE
AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FOOT SUCH AS AT RED LODGE MOUNTAIN. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CALGARY. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUDITH GAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...MAINLY
WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING. HIGHS WILL BE EARLY...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE IN
THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...WHERE OVER A
FOOT OF NEW SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. THE FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE 6
TO 12 INCHES. THE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS...AND HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE WARNINGS...FROM HARLOWTON...TO
ROUNDUP...THROUGH BILLINGS AND HARDIN...AND POWDER RIVER AND
CUSTER COUNTIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TAPPER OFF BY TOMORROW MORNING
AND WILL MOVE OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...WINDS WILL BE STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT...20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES..ESPECIALLY IN THE JUDITH GAP
AREA AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. ALSO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM. A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BUT MODELS
HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT
A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WASHES OUT MOST OF THIS ENERGY
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST. THE ONE TIME FRAME THAT
SHOWS THE MOST PROMISE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. YESTERDAYS GFS RUNS SHOWED A DECENT DISTURBANCE
SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND THE LATEST ECMWF NOW
SHOWS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS HAS THIS
FEATURE NOW STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN
SOME LOW POPS FOR WESTERN AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL WAVE
AND WILL SEE IF CONSISTENCY IMPROVES OVER TIME. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS PUSHING 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z RESULTING IN
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. BY 00Z...CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS
SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-KSHR LINE THIS EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 003/015 905/027 009/044 028/052 029/051 030/052
    1/B 85/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U
LVM 037 001/012 906/029 015/044 027/051 029/051 030/052
    2/W 95/J    10/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    11/B
HDN 039 007/017 904/027 007/047 022/055 026/052 026/053
    0/B 75/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
MLS 036 002/011 906/014 901/042 022/049 024/046 025/045
    0/B 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 038 004/014 905/016 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/048
    0/B 73/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
BHK 034 000/010 909/011 902/040 019/047 021/044 021/042
    0/U 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 037 005/010 910/016 005/040 019/048 024/045 022/048
    0/B 97/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
      NOON MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021632
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
932 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME NOTABLE CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE WSW
PRODUCT. BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN SO FAR FROM 12Z MODEL DATA AND
TRENDS...SOME OF OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEM OVERDONE. I DO NOT PLAN
ON CHANGING ANY OF OUR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE RE-
WRITTEN THE WSW PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND SLICK ROADS RATHER THAN SNOW AMOUNTS. I
HAVE REDUCED SNOWFALL TOTALS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS FROM
ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS AND EASTWARD. THE MAIN IMPACT AREA STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY AREAS WHERE WIND AND SNOWFALL WILL
MAKE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL NOT SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT NORTH FACING SLOPES COULD SEE
AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FOOT SUCH AS AT RED LODGE MOUNTAIN. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CALGARY. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUDITH GAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...MAINLY
WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING. HIGHS WILL BE EARLY...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE IN
THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...WHERE OVER A
FOOT OF NEW SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. THE FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE 6
TO 12 INCHES. THE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS...AND HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE WARNINGS...FROM HARLOWTON...TO
ROUNDUP...THROUGH BILLINGS AND HARDIN...AND POWDER RIVER AND
CUSTER COUNTIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TAPPER OFF BY TOMORROW MORNING
AND WILL MOVE OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...WINDS WILL BE STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT...20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES..ESPECIALLY IN THE JUDITH GAP
AREA AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. ALSO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM. A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BUT MODELS
HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT
A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WASHES OUT MOST OF THIS ENERGY
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST. THE ONE TIME FRAME THAT
SHOWS THE MOST PROMISE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. YESTERDAYS GFS RUNS SHOWED A DECENT DISTURBANCE
SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND THE LATEST ECMWF NOW
SHOWS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS HAS THIS
FEATURE NOW STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN
SOME LOW POPS FOR WESTERN AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL WAVE
AND WILL SEE IF CONSISTENCY IMPROVES OVER TIME. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS PUSHING 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z RESULTING IN
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. BY 00Z...CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS
SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A ROUNDUP-KBIL-KSHR LINE THIS EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 003/015 905/027 009/044 028/052 029/051 030/052
    1/B 85/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U
LVM 037 001/012 906/029 015/044 027/051 029/051 030/052
    2/W 95/J    10/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    11/B
HDN 039 007/017 904/027 007/047 022/055 026/052 026/053
    0/B 75/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
MLS 036 002/011 906/014 901/042 022/049 024/046 025/045
    0/B 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 038 004/014 905/016 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/048
    0/B 73/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
BHK 034 000/010 909/011 902/040 019/047 021/044 021/042
    0/U 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 037 005/010 910/016 005/040 019/048 024/045 022/048
    0/B 97/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
      NOON MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
      ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021018
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
318 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CALGARY. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUDITH GAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...MAINLY
WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING. HIGHS WILL BE EARLY...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE IN
THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...WHERE OVER A
FOOT OF NEW SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. THE FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE 6
TO 12 INCHES. THE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS...AND HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE WARNINGS...FROM HARLOWTON...TO
ROUNDUP...THROUGH BILLINGS AND HARDIN...AND POWDER RIVER AND
CUSTER COUNTIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TAPPER OFF BY TOMORROW MORNING
AND WILL MOVE OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...WINDS WILL BE STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT...20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES..ESPECIALLY IN THE JUDITH GAP
AREA AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. ALSO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM. A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BUT MODELS
HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT
A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WASHES OUT MOST OF THIS ENERGY
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST. THE ONE TIME FRAME THAT
SHOWS THE MOST PROMISE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. YESTERDAYS GFS RUNS SHOWED A DECENT DISTURBANCE
SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND THE LATEST ECMWF NOW
SHOWS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS HAS THIS
FEATURE NOW STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN
SOME LOW POPS FOR WESTERN AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL WAVE
AND WILL SEE IF CONSISTENCY IMPROVES OVER TIME. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS PUSHING 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z...WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPING VFR CEILINGS. BY 00Z CEILINGS WILL
BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AS SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT MOST
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 003/015 905/027 009/044 028/052 029/051 030/052
    1/B 85/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U
LVM 037 001/012 906/029 015/044 027/051 029/051 030/052
    3/W 95/J    10/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    11/B
HDN 039 007/017 904/027 007/047 022/055 026/052 026/053
    0/U 75/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
MLS 036 002/011 906/014 901/042 022/049 024/046 025/045
    0/B 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 038 004/014 905/016 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/048
    0/U 75/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
BHK 034 000/010 909/011 902/040 019/047 021/044 021/042
    0/U 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 037 005/010 910/016 005/040 019/048 024/045 022/048
    1/U 97/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST
      TUESDAY FOR ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
      NOON MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST
      TUESDAY FOR ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021018
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
318 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CALGARY. CURRENT TIMING
HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUDITH GAP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...MAINLY
WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING. HIGHS WILL BE EARLY...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE IN
THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...WHERE OVER A
FOOT OF NEW SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. THE FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE 6
TO 12 INCHES. THE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS...AND HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE WARNINGS...FROM HARLOWTON...TO
ROUNDUP...THROUGH BILLINGS AND HARDIN...AND POWDER RIVER AND
CUSTER COUNTIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TAPPER OFF BY TOMORROW MORNING
AND WILL MOVE OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...WINDS WILL BE STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT...20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES..ESPECIALLY IN THE JUDITH GAP
AREA AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. ALSO WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM. A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BUT MODELS
HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT
A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WASHES OUT MOST OF THIS ENERGY
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST. THE ONE TIME FRAME THAT
SHOWS THE MOST PROMISE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. YESTERDAYS GFS RUNS SHOWED A DECENT DISTURBANCE
SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND THE LATEST ECMWF NOW
SHOWS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. HOWEVER THE LATEST GFS HAS THIS
FEATURE NOW STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN
SOME LOW POPS FOR WESTERN AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL WAVE
AND WILL SEE IF CONSISTENCY IMPROVES OVER TIME. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS PUSHING 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z...WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPING VFR CEILINGS. BY 00Z CEILINGS WILL
BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AS SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT MOST
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 003/015 905/027 009/044 028/052 029/051 030/052
    1/B 85/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U
LVM 037 001/012 906/029 015/044 027/051 029/051 030/052
    3/W 95/J    10/B    00/N    11/N    21/B    11/B
HDN 039 007/017 904/027 007/047 022/055 026/052 026/053
    0/U 75/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
MLS 036 002/011 906/014 901/042 022/049 024/046 025/045
    0/B 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 038 004/014 905/016 000/041 018/049 021/047 022/048
    0/U 75/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
BHK 034 000/010 909/011 902/040 019/047 021/044 021/042
    0/U 42/J    20/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 037 005/010 910/016 005/040 019/048 024/045 022/048
    1/U 97/J    10/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST
      TUESDAY FOR ZONES 28-29-42.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 34-38>41-56-64>67.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
      NOON MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 35>37-57-58.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MST
      TUESDAY FOR ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
      MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020411
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
911 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE WAS SKIRTING ACROSS N MT THIS EVENING...AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS TO NW MT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES OVER THE REGION WERE CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THEIR FORECAST
LOWS...SO HAVE LOWERED THESE MINS. OTHERWISE...WARM ADVECTION WAS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WHICH WAS
LOCATED FROM S BC TO CENTRAL ALBERTA AT 03Z.

MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FRONT/S LOCATION THIS EVENING AND
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT INTO THE JUDITH GAP AREA
AROUND 18Z...THROUGH KBIL AROUND 21Z AND KSHR AROUND 00Z. THE
SURFACE WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL PRECEDE THE
ONSET OF THE SNOW BASED ON THE MODELS...AND WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING IN CANADA. AROUND 6 HOURS OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND A
PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL AS Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT BRINGING POSSIBLE SNOWFALL RATES OF GREATER THAN
2 IN/HR ACCORDING TO THE SREF...MAINLY W AND S OF KBIL. THE NEW
WRF BROUGHT PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 MB/3 HR THROUGH THE
AREA MON NIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE
GUSTY WINDS. THE PRESSURE RISES WILL KEEP THE FRONT MOVING AT A
STEADY CLIP WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THE HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES. MODEL QPF/S WERE NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER AND
SUPPORTED THE GOING FORECAST. NOTED THE SREF PLUMES HAD HIGHER
MEAN SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE AREA SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS
CAREFULLY.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER MOST AREAS EARLY ON TUE. TUE NIGHT WILL
BE QUITE COLD WITH COLD ADVECTION AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BY 12Z WED WERE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO W TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO E. THE GOING WINTER
STORM WATCHES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...HIGHLIGHTING THE AREAS THAT
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACTS AND/OR SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE ON PEOPLE TRAVELING DURING THE TIME OF
THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

A CALM AND QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. SKIES REMAIN
SUNNY ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE EAST AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP MONDAY MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH JUDITH GAP BY LATE MORNING AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST AREAS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS AND WILL BE REACHED DURING THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG FOR ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HOUR PERIOD. THE GFS REMAINS ROBUST IN QPF AMOUNTS BUT THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LESSER AMOUNTS. BELIEVE THE HARDEST IMPACTED
AREAS WILL BE JUDITH GAP...THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE FOOTHILLS...AND
SHERIDAN COUNTY. CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW REMAINS HIGH
FOR THE RED LODGE AREA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY DOWN
INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY. REMAINING AREAS WITHIN THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WATCH MAY BE MORE IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WITH BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES A FACTOR. WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCHES. THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO
BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO WYOMING
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH/BIG HORN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS AND SHERIDAN COUNTY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONL
BE IN THE LOWER TEENS AT BEST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

FLOW BACKS STEADILY WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY WITH A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND EXPECTED. FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA LOSING A BIT OF ITS STRENGTH
WHICH MAY ALLOWS SOME DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD KEEP COLDER
SURFACE AIR AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS AT TIMES DURING THE WEEKEND AND BOOSTED WINDS FOR
HARLOWTON AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING A KLONDIKE CHINOOK PHASE.
BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35
KTS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KBIL/KLVM/KMLS BETWEEN 19-21Z
AND THROUGH KSHR BETWEEN 21-23Z. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 015/036 004/014 903/027 015/044 029/047 027/050 029/051
    02/O    86/S    11/B    00/N    01/N    11/U    11/N
LVM 012/036 001/012 907/028 016/044 027/046 027/048 028/050
    04/O    96/S    11/B    00/N    12/W    11/U    11/N
HDN 007/038 008/017 903/025 012/045 025/049 024/051 026/052
    01/U    76/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/U    11/B
MLS 008/035 003/011 905/018 009/044 025/044 023/047 026/046
    01/B    42/S    21/B    00/B    11/B    11/U    11/B
4BQ 007/037 005/014 904/018 006/043 022/045 020/048 024/048
    00/U    76/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    10/U    11/B
BHK 001/033 001/010 909/013 004/042 022/041 020/044 023/044
    00/U    42/S    21/B    10/B    01/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 005/037 006/010 910/018 006/042 020/043 021/046 022/048
    01/B    97/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
      TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 34-38-39-41-56-64>67.
     WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
      MONDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
      TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020411
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
911 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE WAS SKIRTING ACROSS N MT THIS EVENING...AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS TO NW MT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES OVER THE REGION WERE CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THEIR FORECAST
LOWS...SO HAVE LOWERED THESE MINS. OTHERWISE...WARM ADVECTION WAS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WHICH WAS
LOCATED FROM S BC TO CENTRAL ALBERTA AT 03Z.

MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FRONT/S LOCATION THIS EVENING AND
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT INTO THE JUDITH GAP AREA
AROUND 18Z...THROUGH KBIL AROUND 21Z AND KSHR AROUND 00Z. THE
SURFACE WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL PRECEDE THE
ONSET OF THE SNOW BASED ON THE MODELS...AND WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING IN CANADA. AROUND 6 HOURS OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND A
PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL AS Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT BRINGING POSSIBLE SNOWFALL RATES OF GREATER THAN
2 IN/HR ACCORDING TO THE SREF...MAINLY W AND S OF KBIL. THE NEW
WRF BROUGHT PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 MB/3 HR THROUGH THE
AREA MON NIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE
GUSTY WINDS. THE PRESSURE RISES WILL KEEP THE FRONT MOVING AT A
STEADY CLIP WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THE HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES. MODEL QPF/S WERE NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER AND
SUPPORTED THE GOING FORECAST. NOTED THE SREF PLUMES HAD HIGHER
MEAN SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE AREA SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS
CAREFULLY.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER MOST AREAS EARLY ON TUE. TUE NIGHT WILL
BE QUITE COLD WITH COLD ADVECTION AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BY 12Z WED WERE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO W TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO E. THE GOING WINTER
STORM WATCHES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...HIGHLIGHTING THE AREAS THAT
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACTS AND/OR SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE ON PEOPLE TRAVELING DURING THE TIME OF
THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

A CALM AND QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. SKIES REMAIN
SUNNY ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE EAST AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP MONDAY MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH JUDITH GAP BY LATE MORNING AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST AREAS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS AND WILL BE REACHED DURING THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG FOR ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HOUR PERIOD. THE GFS REMAINS ROBUST IN QPF AMOUNTS BUT THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LESSER AMOUNTS. BELIEVE THE HARDEST IMPACTED
AREAS WILL BE JUDITH GAP...THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE FOOTHILLS...AND
SHERIDAN COUNTY. CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW REMAINS HIGH
FOR THE RED LODGE AREA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY DOWN
INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY. REMAINING AREAS WITHIN THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WATCH MAY BE MORE IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WITH BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES A FACTOR. WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCHES. THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO
BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO WYOMING
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH/BIG HORN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS AND SHERIDAN COUNTY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONL
BE IN THE LOWER TEENS AT BEST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

FLOW BACKS STEADILY WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY WITH A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND EXPECTED. FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA LOSING A BIT OF ITS STRENGTH
WHICH MAY ALLOWS SOME DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD KEEP COLDER
SURFACE AIR AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS AT TIMES DURING THE WEEKEND AND BOOSTED WINDS FOR
HARLOWTON AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING A KLONDIKE CHINOOK PHASE.
BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35
KTS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KBIL/KLVM/KMLS BETWEEN 19-21Z
AND THROUGH KSHR BETWEEN 21-23Z. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 015/036 004/014 903/027 015/044 029/047 027/050 029/051
    02/O    86/S    11/B    00/N    01/N    11/U    11/N
LVM 012/036 001/012 907/028 016/044 027/046 027/048 028/050
    04/O    96/S    11/B    00/N    12/W    11/U    11/N
HDN 007/038 008/017 903/025 012/045 025/049 024/051 026/052
    01/U    76/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/U    11/B
MLS 008/035 003/011 905/018 009/044 025/044 023/047 026/046
    01/B    42/S    21/B    00/B    11/B    11/U    11/B
4BQ 007/037 005/014 904/018 006/043 022/045 020/048 024/048
    00/U    76/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    10/U    11/B
BHK 001/033 001/010 909/013 004/042 022/041 020/044 023/044
    00/U    42/S    21/B    10/B    01/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 005/037 006/010 910/018 006/042 020/043 021/046 022/048
    01/B    97/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
      TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 34-38-39-41-56-64>67.
     WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
      MONDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
      TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020411
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
911 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE WAS SKIRTING ACROSS N MT THIS EVENING...AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS TO NW MT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES OVER THE REGION WERE CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THEIR FORECAST
LOWS...SO HAVE LOWERED THESE MINS. OTHERWISE...WARM ADVECTION WAS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WHICH WAS
LOCATED FROM S BC TO CENTRAL ALBERTA AT 03Z.

MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FRONT/S LOCATION THIS EVENING AND
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IT INTO THE JUDITH GAP AREA
AROUND 18Z...THROUGH KBIL AROUND 21Z AND KSHR AROUND 00Z. THE
SURFACE WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL PRECEDE THE
ONSET OF THE SNOW BASED ON THE MODELS...AND WHAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING IN CANADA. AROUND 6 HOURS OF GOOD INSTABILITY AND A
PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL AS Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT BRINGING POSSIBLE SNOWFALL RATES OF GREATER THAN
2 IN/HR ACCORDING TO THE SREF...MAINLY W AND S OF KBIL. THE NEW
WRF BROUGHT PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 MB/3 HR THROUGH THE
AREA MON NIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE
GUSTY WINDS. THE PRESSURE RISES WILL KEEP THE FRONT MOVING AT A
STEADY CLIP WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THE HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES. MODEL QPF/S WERE NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER AND
SUPPORTED THE GOING FORECAST. NOTED THE SREF PLUMES HAD HIGHER
MEAN SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE AREA SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS
CAREFULLY.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER MOST AREAS EARLY ON TUE. TUE NIGHT WILL
BE QUITE COLD WITH COLD ADVECTION AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BY 12Z WED WERE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO W TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO E. THE GOING WINTER
STORM WATCHES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...HIGHLIGHTING THE AREAS THAT
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACTS AND/OR SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE ON PEOPLE TRAVELING DURING THE TIME OF
THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

A CALM AND QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. SKIES REMAIN
SUNNY ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE EAST AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP MONDAY MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH JUDITH GAP BY LATE MORNING AND THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST AREAS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS AND WILL BE REACHED DURING THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE VERY STRONG FOR ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HOUR PERIOD. THE GFS REMAINS ROBUST IN QPF AMOUNTS BUT THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LESSER AMOUNTS. BELIEVE THE HARDEST IMPACTED
AREAS WILL BE JUDITH GAP...THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE FOOTHILLS...AND
SHERIDAN COUNTY. CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW REMAINS HIGH
FOR THE RED LODGE AREA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY DOWN
INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY. REMAINING AREAS WITHIN THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WATCH MAY BE MORE IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY WITH BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES A FACTOR. WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCHES. THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO
BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH INTO WYOMING
TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH/BIG HORN
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS AND SHERIDAN COUNTY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONL
BE IN THE LOWER TEENS AT BEST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

FLOW BACKS STEADILY WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY WITH A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND EXPECTED. FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA LOSING A BIT OF ITS STRENGTH
WHICH MAY ALLOWS SOME DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TRAJECTORIES SHOULD KEEP COLDER
SURFACE AIR AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS AT TIMES DURING THE WEEKEND AND BOOSTED WINDS FOR
HARLOWTON AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING A KLONDIKE CHINOOK PHASE.
BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35
KTS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KBIL/KLVM/KMLS BETWEEN 19-21Z
AND THROUGH KSHR BETWEEN 21-23Z. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 015/036 004/014 903/027 015/044 029/047 027/050 029/051
    02/O    86/S    11/B    00/N    01/N    11/U    11/N
LVM 012/036 001/012 907/028 016/044 027/046 027/048 028/050
    04/O    96/S    11/B    00/N    12/W    11/U    11/N
HDN 007/038 008/017 903/025 012/045 025/049 024/051 026/052
    01/U    76/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/U    11/B
MLS 008/035 003/011 905/018 009/044 025/044 023/047 026/046
    01/B    42/S    21/B    00/B    11/B    11/U    11/B
4BQ 007/037 005/014 904/018 006/043 022/045 020/048 024/048
    00/U    76/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    10/U    11/B
BHK 001/033 001/010 909/013 004/042 022/041 020/044 023/044
    00/U    42/S    21/B    10/B    01/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 005/037 006/010 910/018 006/042 020/043 021/046 022/048
    01/B    97/S    11/B    00/B    01/B    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
      TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 34-38-39-41-56-64>67.
     WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
      MONDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 63.
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
      TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




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