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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291506
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
906 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Minor updates to adjust precipitation timing this afternoon. Any
cells should be pretty limited in potential but short term models
are consistent in developing isolated weak convection. borsum

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...

Drier westerly flow will persist today with dewpoints lingering
in the upper 30s. Downslope flow will keep any chance for pops to
a minimum in western zones even though shortwaves continue to
cross the region. Higher dewpoints and lingering instability in
east however may support showers and thunder this
afternoon/evening...so introduced pops in east. Downslope flow
should also help push highs into the upper 70s.

Upper level low and cold front will push across the region
tonight...and across the region Monday monday morning ahead of a
developing ridge over the Western US. Models continue support
early fropa...greatly limiting severe weather potential...however
small hail continues to look likely due to low freezing level.
High temps in the 60s west...and 70s west are expected to occur
early in the day Monday...with cooling during the afternoon.
Increasing cloud cover...and post frontal showers bring
unseasonably cool temps for the evening hours. Gilstad

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...


Main change to the extended forecast this morning is for warmer
temperatures late week into the weekend...and less precipitation
potential overall after Tuesday. Models continue to show a cool
wet pattern for Tuesday with upper low over eastern MT shifting
into the Dakotas. Gusty northwest winds and instability will make
for a showery and blustery day. Northwest flow backs to the west
as ridge builds in aloft behind exiting upper low. Downslope
westerly winds will help temperatures back into the lower 70s and
bring dry conditions. Heights continue to rise Thursday into
Friday with downslope westerly flow in the lower levels pushing
highs into the lower 80s for the end of the week. Models this time
yesterday showed a Pacific storm system pushing in for the
weekend, but latest models hold this system off the coast keeping
an amplified ridge in place through early next week. Warmed
weekend temperatures and dried out the late extended as a result.
Chambers
&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions will prevail today. A disturbance crossing the area
will bring a few showers/thunderstorms this afternoon with local
MVFR conditions possible. Best chances for a thunderstorm will be
near terrain west and along the eastern state line. An approaching
storm system will bring deteriorating flight conditions to the
area from west to east tonight. Chambers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 050/065 045/060 043/072 049/082 054/083 055/082
    1/U 35/T    33/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 075 043/062 040/060 038/074 045/081 049/081 050/080
    1/U 44/T    32/T    11/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
HDN 079 049/068 043/059 042/072 047/084 053/086 055/084
    1/U 24/T    35/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 078 054/070 048/058 045/071 050/082 056/085 057/086
    1/U 35/T    55/T    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 079 050/072 044/059 043/069 046/082 052/085 055/085
    2/T 24/T    44/T    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 077 049/071 043/057 040/067 043/077 050/082 051/082
    2/T 25/T    55/T    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
SHR 076 046/067 041/057 039/070 044/081 048/083 051/083
    2/T 25/T    34/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290904
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
304 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...

Drier westerly flow will persist today with dewpoints lingering
in the upper 30s. Downslope flow will keep any chance for pops to
a minimum in western zones even though shortwaves continue to
cross the region. Higher dewpoints and lingering instability in
east however may support showers and thunder this
afternoon/evening...so introduced pops in east. Downslope flow
should also help push highs into the upper 70s.

Upper level low and cold front will push across the region
tonight...and across the region Monday monday morning ahead of a
developing ridge over the Western US. Models continue support
early fropa...greatly limiting severe weather potential...however
small hail continues to look likely due to low freezing level.
High temps in the 60s west...and 70s west are expected to occur
early in the day Monday...with cooling during the afternoon.
Increasing cloud cover...and post frontal showers bring
unseasonably cool temps for the evening hours. Gilstad

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...


Main change to the extended forecast this morning is for warmer
temperatures late week into the weekend...and less precipitation
potential overall after Tuesday. Models continue to show a cool
wet pattern for Tuesday with upper low over eastern MT shifting
into the Dakotas. Gusty northwest winds and instability will make
for a showery and blustery day. Northwest flow backs to the west
as ridge builds in aloft behind exiting upper low. Downslope
westerly winds will help temperatures back into the lower 70s and
bring dry conditions. Heights continue to rise Thursday into
Friday with downslope westerly flow in the lower levels pushing
highs into the lower 80s for the end of the week. Models this time
yesterday showed a Pacific storm system pushing in for the
weekend, but latest models hold this system off the coast keeping
an amplified ridge in place through early next week. Warmed
weekend temperatures and dried out the late extended as a result.
Chambers
&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions will prevail today. A disturbance crossing the area
will bring a few showers/thunderstorms this afternoon with local
MVFR conditions possible. Best chances for a thunderstorm will be
near terrain west and along the eastern state line. An approaching
storm system will bring deteriorating flight conditions to the
area from west to east tonight. Chambers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 050/065 045/060 043/072 049/082 054/083 055/082
    1/U 35/T    33/T    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 075 043/062 040/060 038/074 045/081 049/081 050/080
    1/U 44/T    32/T    11/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
HDN 079 049/068 043/059 042/072 047/084 053/086 055/084
    1/U 24/T    35/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 078 054/070 048/058 045/071 050/082 056/085 057/086
    1/U 35/T    55/T    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 079 050/072 044/059 043/069 046/082 052/085 055/085
    2/T 24/T    44/T    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 077 049/071 043/057 040/067 043/077 050/082 051/082
    2/T 25/T    55/T    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
SHR 076 046/067 041/057 039/070 044/081 048/083 051/083
    2/T 25/T    34/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290233
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
833 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Zonal flow was increasing across the area and was serving to dry
out the mid levels some. Very weak shortwave activity triggered a
few very weak showers this evening, but not much rain actually hit
the ground. Atmosphere will continue to stabilize tonight with the
loss of sunshine and only very weak shortwave influx progged by
the models. Lowered pops this evening and overnight with this in
mind. Adjusted clouds to match lowering pops as cumulus clouds
were dissipating. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

Drier westerly flow has moved into the region with relatively cool
temperatures so airmass is pretty stable this afternoon and any
convection will likely be terrain aided. Diurnal cooling will
cause activity to decrease. This pattern remains in place for
Sunday with dewpoints lingering in the upper 30s and have only
minimal pops in the forecast. Will be warmer on Sunday as surface
flow is more downslopish and temperatures reach the 70s.

Monday a fast moving small upper level low moves into the area
ahead of a developing ridge over the Western US. The timing of
this low appears to be fairly early and a strong cold front is
driven across the forecast area in the morning hours. Latest GFS
and WRF push westerly surface flow across the area early enough
that severe weather does not look to be a concern over Montana.
However low freezing levels will support any cells post frontal to
easily generate small hail that could reach the ground. High
temperatures will be in the morning hours with cooling during the
afternoon. Will see increasing showers post frontal as the low
settles in Monday evening and temperatures become unseasonably
cool. Borsum

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...


The extended has not changed much with the latest runs. Tuesday
will see some linger showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.
The best chance will be in the eastern zones. Along with the
showers, conditions will be cooler and breezy. By Wednesday
things will be drying out as ridging works into the area. Expect a
warming trend through the extended as the ridge remains in place.
Can not rule out some isolated showers over the mountains during
each afternoon, thus have kept just slight chance over the
mountains.

Going into next weekend, the ridge will begin to break down. This
will increase the rain chances, but with the latest runs the EC
was mostly dry and the GFS had just some scattered activity. Given
this, did low pops slightly, but still tried to stay closer to
climo pops. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...


Weak showers will continue to dissipate, leaving only very
isolated light showers near the mountains this evening. VFR
conditions expected the remainder of the night. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/077 050/065 045/063 043/070 048/078 053/082 054/081
    11/U    35/T    33/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    12/T
LVM 039/073 043/062 040/063 037/072 044/077 049/079 050/079
    11/U    34/T    32/T    21/B    11/B    11/B    12/T
HDN 045/079 050/068 043/063 042/071 046/079 053/085 055/084
    10/U    24/T    34/T    31/B    11/U    11/B    12/T
MLS 048/079 053/070 048/062 045/070 049/077 055/084 058/084
    11/U    35/T    54/T    32/W    11/U    11/U    12/T
4BQ 045/079 050/073 045/063 042/069 044/077 052/084 054/083
    11/U    24/T    43/T    32/W    11/U    11/U    12/T
BHK 043/077 049/071 044/061 039/066 042/074 048/081 050/080
    11/U    25/T    64/T    43/W    11/U    11/U    12/T
SHR 041/076 046/067 042/061 039/068 042/076 048/082 051/083
    11/U    25/T    33/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270914
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
314 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...

Minor changes to the short term forecast this morning, with
models remaining in good agreement on disturbance dropping into
the region today and Saturday.

Although the strongest energy remaining to our west and northwest
across north central Montana today, a Pacific front will move into
the area this afternoon. This should bring increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms across western areas. Raised pops across
western zones slightly, and extended slight pops a bit further
east for lingering showers this evening. The best area for
stronger thunderstorms appears to be around Billings by mid
afternoon, with small hail and erratic gusty winds, as cold pool
moving east combines with good pwats at peak heating, and likely
multiple outflow boundaries from earlier activity. Any stronger
activity should taper off quickly after sunset.

Zonal flow aloft develops over the region Saturday. Weak upper
level energy and vorticity will continue to stream across the
area, bringing continued potential for showers and isolated
thunderstorms, but with less coverage overall than recent days.
Eastern zones should see best chances with improved CAPES.

Afternoon highs Friday and Saturday will be around normal with
readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Gilstad

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...


Models struggling with consistency for Monday-Tuesday storm
system. Latest Canadian and GFS models drop a stronger wrapped
up system from the Pacific NW through the area during this period, while
the ECMWF is faster bringing the energy across as an open wave and
keeps main area of dynamics well north of the area along the
Canadian border. Given the differences in the models have kept
chance pops going and will await better consistency before making
adjustments for this period. Models come to better agreement with
strengthening ridge of high pressure developing mid to late week
and continuing into next weekend. This will trend drier and
warmer heading through the end of the week. Chambers
&&

.AVIATION...


A few areas of stratus/fog are possible across the area this
morning with local ifr conditions through 16z. Isolated shower
activity late this morning over western zones will evolve into
scattered thunderstorms by mid day, spreading into central zones
around Billings by 23z. Wind gusts to 35kts and small hail will be
possible with storms this afternoon/evening along with brief heavy
rainfall. Additional stratus and fog development are possible
Friday night into Saturday morning. Chambers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 048/067 046/075 049/070 046/063 044/068 046/075
    6/T 63/T    21/B    25/T    34/T    42/W    11/B
LVM 063 041/063 039/071 043/065 041/060 039/068 042/075
    6/T 63/T    21/B    34/T    43/T    32/W    11/U
HDN 072 047/070 045/077 049/074 045/064 042/068 045/077
    3/T 53/T    20/B    24/T    34/T    43/W    11/B
MLS 071 051/072 049/078 053/074 050/065 046/067 047/077
    2/T 24/T    21/U    34/T    44/T    43/T    21/B
4BQ 071 046/071 045/077 049/075 046/066 043/067 043/077
    2/T 24/T    21/B    23/T    33/T    33/T    21/B
BHK 069 046/071 044/076 049/072 045/065 042/064 041/073
    2/T 16/T    31/B    25/T    44/T    43/T    21/B
SHR 069 043/068 042/075 045/072 043/063 040/067 042/075
    4/T 33/T    22/T    25/T    34/T    43/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings





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