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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020858
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
258 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

FLOW ALOFT IN PROCESS OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO
CHANGES IN OUR EXPECTATIONS OF A DRY AND MILDER DAY. NEXT TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS
IT DROPS SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SYSTEM HAS VERY POSITIVE TILT TO IT AND INITIALLY KEEPS FORCING TO
OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT I SUSPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY A GUSTY
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SOME SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. HENCE...NOT A BIG NOR LENGTHY
PRECIPITATON EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS IT IS ANY TIME FOR A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DAY. STUCK WITH BLEND OF ALL SOLUTIONS TO NEGATE RISK OF
LARGE ERRORS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIRMASS IS SLOWLY MODIFIED BY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...AFFECTING A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...AND CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 EXPECTED. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NO
AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 053/075 047/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 080 045/073 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T
HDN 080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 079 048/081 046/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020858
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
258 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

FLOW ALOFT IN PROCESS OF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO
CHANGES IN OUR EXPECTATIONS OF A DRY AND MILDER DAY. NEXT TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS
IT DROPS SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SYSTEM HAS VERY POSITIVE TILT TO IT AND INITIALLY KEEPS FORCING TO
OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN AS COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT I SUSPECT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY A GUSTY
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH SOME SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. HENCE...NOT A BIG NOR LENGTHY
PRECIPITATON EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS IT IS ANY TIME FOR A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DAY. STUCK WITH BLEND OF ALL SOLUTIONS TO NEGATE RISK OF
LARGE ERRORS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIRMASS IS SLOWLY MODIFIED BY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...AFFECTING A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
APPROACH SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...AND CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 EXPECTED. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA...AND BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NO
AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 053/075 047/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 080 045/073 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    0/U 02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T
HDN 080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    0/U 01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    0/U 01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 079 048/081 046/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
727 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS WILL BRING A CHILLY
MORNING TOMORROW. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. SOME WESTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
AREA MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWING
PLENTY OF CU AROUND EXCEPT JUST EAST OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE DOWNSLOPING THAT
AREA AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP-
BILLINGS-SHERIDAN LINE. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 15-25C
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THESE AREAS. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BRINING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED
EARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AS THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THOSE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG
VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO
10 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. MODELS INDICATE A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RICHMOND



&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/080 053/076 048/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 041/080 045/074 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/W
HDN 047/080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 050/079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 048/080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 048/076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 044/079 048/080 048/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    00/U    00/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 020127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
727 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS WILL BRING A CHILLY
MORNING TOMORROW. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. SOME WESTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
AREA MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWING
PLENTY OF CU AROUND EXCEPT JUST EAST OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE DOWNSLOPING THAT
AREA AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP-
BILLINGS-SHERIDAN LINE. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 15-25C
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THESE AREAS. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BRINING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED
EARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AS THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THOSE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG
VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO
10 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. MODELS INDICATE A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RICHMOND



&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/080 053/076 048/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 041/080 045/074 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/W
HDN 047/080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 050/079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 048/080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 048/076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 044/079 048/080 048/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    00/U    00/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 012056
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWING
PLENTY OF CU AROUND EXCEPT JUST EAST OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE DOWNSLOPING THAT
AREA AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP-
BILLINGS-SHERIDAN LINE. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 15-25C
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THESE AREAS. THE BULK
OF THE UPPER ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
BRINING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WENDESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE
REACHED EARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL MOST
LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AS THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THOSE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG
VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO
10 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. MODELS INDICATE A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION BY 03Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/080 053/076 048/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 042/080 045/074 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/W
HDN 050/080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 052/079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 051/080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 047/076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 044/079 048/080 048/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    10/U    00/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011457
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
857 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

STRONG JET STREAM COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA HAS RESULTED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOW MOVED INTO BIG HORN AND
SHERIDAN COUNTIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. HAVE
REMOVED POPS OR LOWERED TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING FROM BILLINGS WEST AND NORTH. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURNED
SLIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM HARDIN TO SHERIDAN. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM BILLINGS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    4/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011457
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
857 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

STRONG JET STREAM COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA HAS RESULTED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOW MOVED INTO BIG HORN AND
SHERIDAN COUNTIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. HAVE
REMOVED POPS OR LOWERED TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING FROM BILLINGS WEST AND NORTH. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURNED
SLIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM HARDIN TO SHERIDAN. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM BILLINGS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    4/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011216
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
616 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE INVOLVING POPS. INCREASED THEM OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES FROM RED LODGE TO LODGE GRASS AS RADAR SHOWS SOME DECENT
RETURNS...THOUGH MOST SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    3/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011216
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
616 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE INVOLVING POPS. INCREASED THEM OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES FROM RED LODGE TO LODGE GRASS AS RADAR SHOWS SOME DECENT
RETURNS...THOUGH MOST SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    3/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010934
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
334 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    1/B 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010934
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
334 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

JET MAX AND COLD POOL ALOFT GENERATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ALL MODELS INDICATE A
DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.
WE ONLY NEEDED A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED POPS FOR
TODAY....AND IT STILL LOOKS DRY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW/FLAT RIDGE PATTERN.
TUESDAY TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WARM TO NEAR
SEASONAL READINGS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARS WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SEE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY...HELPING TO KEEP THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN
SPLIT FLOW...AFFECTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUING CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. AAG


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ROUTES...INCLUDING...KSHR...KBIL...AND KLVM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROUTES THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 050/077 053/074 048/063 046/070 049/072 049/076
    1/B 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
LVM 068 043/078 045/070 041/064 038/071 040/071 043/076
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 074 050/080 052/077 050/066 048/073 050/075 051/079
    2/T 00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/U
MLS 073 052/078 054/078 051/066 048/071 051/075 052/079
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 072 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/071 051/075 052/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U
BHK 071 049/077 051/079 048/065 045/069 047/073 048/076
    2/T 00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/U
SHR 068 045/079 050/080 046/067 044/072 046/075 047/079
    3/T 00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010314
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
914 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT DID
NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE REMOVING THEM COMPLETELY. AIRMASS IS
STABILIZING AND CURRENT ACTIVITY EAST OF BILLINGS IS DIMINISHING
BUT DARKENING EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO
INDICATIVE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN
DID OCCUR LOCALLY THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE WEST END OF
BILLINGS AND OVER TOWARDS LAUREL. COULD SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG
BUT SKIES UPSTREAM STILL HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER FLOATING THROUGH
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY THAN SOUTHWESTERLY. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME POP-UP INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

CURRENT WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARD MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS MORE LIMITED...WITH PW VALUES
FALLING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH. THAT IS REFLECTED IN OVERALL LACK OF
PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY BOTH GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE TO REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AIR UNDER THE BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING DAY
TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES.

DRYING CONTINUES ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE LAST SHORTWAVE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. PW VALUES CRASH TO
AROUND 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND OVERALL LACK
OF FORCING WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH NO THREAT OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
ON TUESDAY...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES TAKING
HOLD...ALLOWING FOR DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST MODELS
TIGHTENED UP THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. TRACK OF THE BEST ENERGY
HAS SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
BEING ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS DECENT QG
FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRUCTURE AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL BE LINEAR IN NATURE SO COULD BE A PRETTY QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND DRY OUT THE PLAINS. KEPT MORE BROADBRUSHED
LOW POPS FOR REMAINING UNCERTAINTY...IF SYSTEM DROPS JUST A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD CERTAINLY BE MORE
ROBUST AND OF A LONGER DURATION.

THURSDAY LOOKS UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH MOST MODELS HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS MARITIME CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS IN AND CLOUD COVER HOLD DOWN HIGHS. KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR
MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE ARE PROVIDING INSTABILITY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND MAY GET
CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT DRAGGING IN WARMER GREAT BASIN AIRMASS.
TRAPPED VORTICITY OVER NORTHERN WYOMING MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER
FOR THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE NIGHT...WITH
ISOLD TS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT
LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. W-NW WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON MONDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/070 050/078 053/074 048/063 046/069 049/071 049/074
    32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/B
LVM 043/070 043/080 046/070 041/064 038/070 040/070 043/074
    32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 051/072 050/081 052/077 050/066 048/072 050/074 051/077
    22/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/B
MLS 052/074 052/080 054/078 051/066 048/070 051/074 052/077
    12/T    00/U    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 051/071 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/070 051/074 052/077
    23/T    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/B
BHK 049/072 049/078 051/079 048/065 045/068 047/072 048/074
    23/T    00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 047/069 045/080 050/080 046/067 044/071 046/074 047/077
    23/T    00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 312017
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
217 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME POP-UP INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

CURRENT WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARD MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS MORE LIMITED...WITH PW VALUES
FALLING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH. THAT IS REFLECTED IN OVERALL LACK OF
PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY BOTH GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE TO REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AIR UNDER THE BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING DAY
TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES.

DRYING CONTINUES ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE LAST SHORTWAVE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. PW VALUES CRASH TO
AROUND 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND OVERALL LACK
OF FORCING WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH NO THREAT OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
ON TUESDAY...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES TAKING
HOLD...ALLOWING FOR DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST MODELS
TIGHTENED UP THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. TRACK OF THE BEST ENERGY
HAS SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
BEING ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS DECENT QG
FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRUCTURE AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL BE LINEAR IN NATURE SO COULD BE A PRETTY QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND DRY OUT THE PLAINS. KEPT MORE BROADBRUSHED
LOW POPS FOR REMAINING UNCERTAINTY...IF SYSTEM DROPS JUST A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD CERTAINLY BE MORE
ROBUST AND OF A LONGER DURATION.

THURSDAY LOOKS UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH MOST MODELS HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS MARITIME CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS IN AND CLOUD COVER HOLD DOWN HIGHS. KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR
MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE ARE PROVIDING INSTABILITY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND MAY GET
CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT DRAGGING IN WARMER GREAT BASIN AIRMASS.
TRAPPED VORTICITY OVER NORTHERN WYOMING MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER
FOR THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH MID
EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY
PRECIPITATION AREAS. VFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLEARING BY SUNRISE MONDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/070 050/078 053/074 048/063 046/069 049/071 049/074
    32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/B
LVM 043/070 043/080 046/070 041/064 038/070 040/070 043/074
    42/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 051/072 050/081 052/077 050/066 048/072 050/074 051/077
    32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/B
MLS 052/074 052/080 054/078 051/066 048/070 051/074 052/077
    12/T    00/U    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 051/071 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/070 051/074 052/077
    23/T    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/B
BHK 049/072 049/078 051/079 048/065 045/068 047/072 048/074
    13/T    00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 047/069 045/080 050/080 046/067 044/071 046/074 047/077
    33/T    00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 312017
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
217 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME POP-UP INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

CURRENT WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARD MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS MORE LIMITED...WITH PW VALUES
FALLING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH. THAT IS REFLECTED IN OVERALL LACK OF
PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY BOTH GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE TO REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AIR UNDER THE BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING DAY
TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES.

DRYING CONTINUES ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE LAST SHORTWAVE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. PW VALUES CRASH TO
AROUND 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND OVERALL LACK
OF FORCING WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH NO THREAT OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY
ON TUESDAY...WITH THE DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES TAKING
HOLD...ALLOWING FOR DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST MODELS
TIGHTENED UP THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. TRACK OF THE BEST ENERGY
HAS SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
BEING ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS DECENT QG
FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRUCTURE AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL BE LINEAR IN NATURE SO COULD BE A PRETTY QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND DRY OUT THE PLAINS. KEPT MORE BROADBRUSHED
LOW POPS FOR REMAINING UNCERTAINTY...IF SYSTEM DROPS JUST A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD CERTAINLY BE MORE
ROBUST AND OF A LONGER DURATION.

THURSDAY LOOKS UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH MOST MODELS HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS MARITIME CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS IN AND CLOUD COVER HOLD DOWN HIGHS. KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR
MAINLY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE ARE PROVIDING INSTABILITY SHOWER POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND MAY GET
CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT DRAGGING IN WARMER GREAT BASIN AIRMASS.
TRAPPED VORTICITY OVER NORTHERN WYOMING MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER
FOR THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH MID
EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY
PRECIPITATION AREAS. VFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLEARING BY SUNRISE MONDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/070 050/078 053/074 048/063 046/069 049/071 049/074
    32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/B
LVM 043/070 043/080 046/070 041/064 038/070 040/070 043/074
    42/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 051/072 050/081 052/077 050/066 048/072 050/074 051/077
    32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/B    12/T    21/B
MLS 052/074 052/080 054/078 051/066 048/070 051/074 052/077
    12/T    00/U    01/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 051/071 051/080 053/083 050/066 047/070 051/074 052/077
    23/T    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/B
BHK 049/072 049/078 051/079 048/065 045/068 047/072 048/074
    13/T    00/B    01/U    22/T    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 047/069 045/080 050/080 046/067 044/071 046/074 047/077
    33/T    00/U    01/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 311501
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
901 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO SLIGHTLY
ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN WAVE IS
TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS KEEPING RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING THIS
MORNING. THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE BETTER
THAN EXPECTED WITH THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION. STILL ANTICIPATE
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS. A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS WELL KEEPING HIGHS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

AS FOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THIS PACKAGE...JET MAX ON THE FRONT END OF
BROADER TROUGH IS WEAKER THAN THE ONE ON THE BACKSIDE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SOME OF THE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY SOUTH IN NW WYOMING. ONLY THE RAP HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS SO FAR WITH THE GFS/WRF/ECMWF ALL OVERPLAYING
THE PRECIPITATION TOO FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER US THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THIS
SIDE OF THE STATELINE BY AFTERNOON AS JET STREAM BUCKLES NORTH
WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHEST POPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND HIT THE SE SECTION
HARDEST LATE MORNING TO THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AFFECTS MAINLY OUR WESTERN TERRAIN BEFORE
SPREADING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED
FORECASTS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN...TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE...AND LITTLE HAS
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS. THE TIMING PROBLEMS HAVE
NECESSITATED A MORE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...STARTING OFF QUIET FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA DIGS
SOUTH AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST OVER MONTANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED POPS COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BROAD TROF REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH KEEPS KEEPS SLIGHT PRECIP
POTENTIAL IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL. PERSISTENCE OF
TROF WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH LOCAL MVFR AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 051/070 050/078 054/077 050/069 049/069 050/074
    3/T 32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 068 044/070 043/079 046/077 043/068 044/069 045/076
    3/T 42/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 072 051/072 050/080 053/081 051/072 051/073 050/077
    2/T 32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 074 052/074 052/079 054/080 053/071 053/072 052/075
    2/T 12/T    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 071 051/071 051/080 053/083 052/072 051/073 051/076
    4/T 23/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 072 050/072 048/077 051/080 050/073 049/070 049/073
    4/T 12/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 068 047/069 046/080 050/083 049/073 048/075 048/078
    5/T 33/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 311501
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
901 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO SLIGHTLY
ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN WAVE IS
TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS KEEPING RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING THIS
MORNING. THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE BETTER
THAN EXPECTED WITH THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION. STILL ANTICIPATE
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS. A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS WELL KEEPING HIGHS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

AS FOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THIS PACKAGE...JET MAX ON THE FRONT END OF
BROADER TROUGH IS WEAKER THAN THE ONE ON THE BACKSIDE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SOME OF THE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY SOUTH IN NW WYOMING. ONLY THE RAP HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS SO FAR WITH THE GFS/WRF/ECMWF ALL OVERPLAYING
THE PRECIPITATION TOO FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER US THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THIS
SIDE OF THE STATELINE BY AFTERNOON AS JET STREAM BUCKLES NORTH
WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHEST POPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND HIT THE SE SECTION
HARDEST LATE MORNING TO THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AFFECTS MAINLY OUR WESTERN TERRAIN BEFORE
SPREADING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED
FORECASTS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN...TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE...AND LITTLE HAS
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS. THE TIMING PROBLEMS HAVE
NECESSITATED A MORE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...STARTING OFF QUIET FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA DIGS
SOUTH AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST OVER MONTANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED POPS COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BROAD TROF REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH KEEPS KEEPS SLIGHT PRECIP
POTENTIAL IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL. PERSISTENCE OF
TROF WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH LOCAL MVFR AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 051/070 050/078 054/077 050/069 049/069 050/074
    3/T 32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 068 044/070 043/079 046/077 043/068 044/069 045/076
    3/T 42/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 072 051/072 050/080 053/081 051/072 051/073 050/077
    2/T 32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 074 052/074 052/079 054/080 053/071 053/072 052/075
    2/T 12/T    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 071 051/071 051/080 053/083 052/072 051/073 051/076
    4/T 23/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 072 050/072 048/077 051/080 050/073 049/070 049/073
    4/T 12/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 068 047/069 046/080 050/083 049/073 048/075 048/078
    5/T 33/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 310930
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
330 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS. A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS WELL KEEPING HIGHS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

AS FOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THIS PACKAGE...JET MAX ON THE FRONT END OF
BROADER TROUGH IS WEAKER THAN THE ONE ON THE BACKSIDE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SOME OF THE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY SOUTH IN NW WYOMING. ONLY THE RAP AND HRRR HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS SO FAR WITH THE GFS/WRF/ECMWF ALL OVERPLAYING
THE PRECIPITATION TOO FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THIS
SIDE OF THE STATELINE BY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY TURNS NORTHEAST ON
TROUGHS FRONT SIDE. SO HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHEST POPS SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING...AND HIT THE SE SECTION HARDEST LATE MORNING TO THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
AFFECTS MAINLY OUR WESTERN TERRAIN BEFORE SPREADING SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECASTS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN...TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE...AND LITTLE HAS
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS. THE TIMING PROBLEMS HAVE
NECESSITATED A MORE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...STARTING OFF QUIET FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA DIGS
SOUTH AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST OVER MONTANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED POPS COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BROAD TROF REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH KEEPS KEEPS SLIGHT PRECIP
POTENTIAL IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL. PERSISTENCE OF
TROF WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR AND FREQUENT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 051/070 050/078 054/077 050/069 049/069 050/074
    3/T 32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 066 044/070 043/079 046/077 043/068 044/069 045/076
    4/T 42/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 071 051/072 050/080 053/081 051/072 051/073 050/077
    3/T 32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 074 052/074 052/079 054/080 053/071 053/072 052/075
    2/T 22/T    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 070 051/071 051/080 053/083 052/072 051/073 051/076
    4/T 23/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 072 050/072 048/077 051/080 050/073 049/070 049/073
    4/T 12/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 066 047/069 046/080 050/083 049/073 048/075 048/078
    5/T 33/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 310930
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
330 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS. A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS WELL KEEPING HIGHS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

AS FOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THIS PACKAGE...JET MAX ON THE FRONT END OF
BROADER TROUGH IS WEAKER THAN THE ONE ON THE BACKSIDE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SOME OF THE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY SOUTH IN NW WYOMING. ONLY THE RAP AND HRRR HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS SO FAR WITH THE GFS/WRF/ECMWF ALL OVERPLAYING
THE PRECIPITATION TOO FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THIS
SIDE OF THE STATELINE BY AFTERNOON AS ENERGY TURNS NORTHEAST ON
TROUGHS FRONT SIDE. SO HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHEST POPS SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING...AND HIT THE SE SECTION HARDEST LATE MORNING TO THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
AFFECTS MAINLY OUR WESTERN TERRAIN BEFORE SPREADING SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECASTS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN...TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE...AND LITTLE HAS
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS. THE TIMING PROBLEMS HAVE
NECESSITATED A MORE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...STARTING OFF QUIET FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA DIGS
SOUTH AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST OVER MONTANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED POPS COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BROAD TROF REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH KEEPS KEEPS SLIGHT PRECIP
POTENTIAL IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL. PERSISTENCE OF
TROF WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR AND FREQUENT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 051/070 050/078 054/077 050/069 049/069 050/074
    3/T 32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 066 044/070 043/079 046/077 043/068 044/069 045/076
    4/T 42/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 071 051/072 050/080 053/081 051/072 051/073 050/077
    3/T 32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 074 052/074 052/079 054/080 053/071 053/072 052/075
    2/T 22/T    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 070 051/071 051/080 053/083 052/072 051/073 051/076
    4/T 23/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 072 050/072 048/077 051/080 050/073 049/070 049/073
    4/T 12/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 066 047/069 046/080 050/083 049/073 048/075 048/078
    5/T 33/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 310329
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
929 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAVING
MOVED INTO THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA SO DO EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT BUT CURRENT ACTIVITY IS VERY ISOLATED. DOES NOT LOOK
QUITE AS WET WITH THE NEXT ROUND AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS JET
ENERGY OVER OREGON IS TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH WILL PUT
BEST LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING. UPDATED
FORECASTS. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS
PUSHING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY WAVE IS PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OUT OF YELLOWSTONE PARK. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MORE VIGOROUS WITH THIS WAVE ALL MORNING...EVEN BACK OVER
IDAHO EARLIER...INDICATING ENHANCED MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. WOULD
STILL NOT RULE OUT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES WITH THE INITIAL WAVE. IN
FACT...A THUNDERSTORM HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
GILLETTE WITH THIS LINE...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER A LINE
CAN UNZIP NORTHWARD DESPITE THE CIN THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. IF A
LINE CAN DEVELOP THERE...IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE AT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT BEFORE THE LINE EXITS INTO THE DAKOTAS.

THE SECONDARY WAVE IS STARTING TO DEVELOP A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH
OF RED LODGE DOWN TOWARD JACKSON WYOMING. TREND IN THE HRRR HAS
BEEN TO EVOLVE THIS LINE ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED.
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WHILE WOULDNT RULE OUT
A SEVERE REPORT...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.

CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THUS KEEPING AN
OVERALL WET FORECAST GOING THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN COOLER...WITH DAY
TIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF QUIET FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
CONSISTENT WITH ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTH AND DEFLECTS THE FLOW OVER MONTANA TO THE SOUTHWEST
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS DRAG THE BULK OF THE
PACIFIC SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
SLOWER AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORCING AND THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEAK ENERGY AND GENERAL TROFINESS RESIDES
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF STRONGEST FORCING
OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT IF ECMWF IS CORRECT THIS COULD BE A BIT
LATE. CONTINUED 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MID 70S WEDNESDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WITH ANY CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS
HAVING SHIFTED INTO THE DAKOTAS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL
LATER TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST SUNDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
AND FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-18Z.
JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 054/068 051/069 050/078 054/077 050/069 049/069
    7/T 44/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 071 046/066 043/068 043/079 046/077 043/068 044/069
    7/T 43/T    22/T    10/U    12/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 074 054/069 051/071 051/080 053/081 051/072 051/073
    6/T 45/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T
MLS 077 056/072 052/073 052/079 054/080 053/071 053/072
    4/T 34/T    12/T    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T
4BQ 083 055/066 051/070 051/080 053/083 052/072 051/073
    5/T 35/T    23/T    10/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 079 054/071 049/070 049/077 051/080 050/073 049/070
    5/T 53/T    13/T    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 080 052/065 047/070 046/080 050/083 049/073 048/075
    6/T 35/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 310329
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
929 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAVING
MOVED INTO THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA SO DO EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT BUT CURRENT ACTIVITY IS VERY ISOLATED. DOES NOT LOOK
QUITE AS WET WITH THE NEXT ROUND AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS JET
ENERGY OVER OREGON IS TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH WILL PUT
BEST LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING. UPDATED
FORECASTS. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS
PUSHING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY WAVE IS PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OUT OF YELLOWSTONE PARK. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MORE VIGOROUS WITH THIS WAVE ALL MORNING...EVEN BACK OVER
IDAHO EARLIER...INDICATING ENHANCED MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. WOULD
STILL NOT RULE OUT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES WITH THE INITIAL WAVE. IN
FACT...A THUNDERSTORM HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
GILLETTE WITH THIS LINE...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER A LINE
CAN UNZIP NORTHWARD DESPITE THE CIN THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. IF A
LINE CAN DEVELOP THERE...IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE AT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT BEFORE THE LINE EXITS INTO THE DAKOTAS.

THE SECONDARY WAVE IS STARTING TO DEVELOP A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH
OF RED LODGE DOWN TOWARD JACKSON WYOMING. TREND IN THE HRRR HAS
BEEN TO EVOLVE THIS LINE ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED.
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WHILE WOULDNT RULE OUT
A SEVERE REPORT...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.

CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THUS KEEPING AN
OVERALL WET FORECAST GOING THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN COOLER...WITH DAY
TIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF QUIET FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
CONSISTENT WITH ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTH AND DEFLECTS THE FLOW OVER MONTANA TO THE SOUTHWEST
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS DRAG THE BULK OF THE
PACIFIC SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
SLOWER AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORCING AND THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEAK ENERGY AND GENERAL TROFINESS RESIDES
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF STRONGEST FORCING
OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT IF ECMWF IS CORRECT THIS COULD BE A BIT
LATE. CONTINUED 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MID 70S WEDNESDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WITH ANY CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS
HAVING SHIFTED INTO THE DAKOTAS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL
LATER TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST SUNDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
AND FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-18Z.
JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 054/068 051/069 050/078 054/077 050/069 049/069
    7/T 44/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 071 046/066 043/068 043/079 046/077 043/068 044/069
    7/T 43/T    22/T    10/U    12/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 074 054/069 051/071 051/080 053/081 051/072 051/073
    6/T 45/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T
MLS 077 056/072 052/073 052/079 054/080 053/071 053/072
    4/T 34/T    12/T    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T
4BQ 083 055/066 051/070 051/080 053/083 052/072 051/073
    5/T 35/T    23/T    10/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 079 054/071 049/070 049/077 051/080 050/073 049/070
    5/T 53/T    13/T    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 080 052/065 047/070 046/080 050/083 049/073 048/075
    6/T 35/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302034
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
234 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS
PUSHING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY WAVE IS PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OUT OF YELLOWSTONE PARK. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MORE VIGOROUS WITH THIS WAVE ALL MORNING...EVEN BACK OVER
IDAHO EARLIER...INDICATING ENHANCED MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. WOULD
STILL NOT RULE OUT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES WITH THE INITIAL WAVE. IN
FACT...A THUNDERSTORM HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
GILLETTE WITH THIS LINE...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER A LINE
CAN UNZIP NORTHWARD DESPITE THE CIN THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. IF A
LINE CAN DEVELOP THERE...IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE AT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT BEFORE THE LINE EXITS INTO THE DAKOTAS.

THE SECONDARY WAVE IS STARTING TO DEVELOP A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH
OF RED LODGE DOWN TOWARD JACKSON WYOMING. TREND IN THE HRRR HAS
BEEN TO EVOLVE THIS LINE ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED.
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WHILE WOULDNT RULE OUT
A SEVERE REPORT...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.

CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THUS KEEPING AN
OVERALL WET FORECAST GOING THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN COOLER...WITH DAY
TIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF QUIET FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
CONSISTENT WITH ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTH AND DEFLECTS THE FLOW OVER MONTANA TO THE SOUTHWEST
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS DRAG THE BULK OF THE
PACIFIC SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
SLOWER AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORCING AND THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEAK ENERGY AND GENERAL TROFINESS RESIDES
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF STRONGEST FORCING
OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT IF ECMWF IS CORRECT THIS COULD BE A BIT
LATE. CONTINUED 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MID 70S WEDNESDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/068 051/069 050/078 054/077 050/069 049/069 050/070
    64/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    22/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 046/066 043/068 043/079 046/077 043/068 044/069 045/072
    63/T    22/T    10/U    12/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 054/069 051/071 051/080 053/081 051/072 051/073 050/073
    55/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 056/072 052/073 052/079 054/080 053/071 053/072 052/071
    44/T    12/T    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 055/066 051/070 051/080 053/083 052/072 051/073 051/072
    65/T    23/T    10/U    01/U    22/T    33/T    22/T
BHK 054/071 049/070 049/077 051/080 050/073 049/070 049/069
    63/T    13/T    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 052/065 047/070 046/080 050/083 049/073 048/075 048/074
    55/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 302034
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
234 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ARE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS
PUSHING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY WAVE IS PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OUT OF YELLOWSTONE PARK. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN MORE VIGOROUS WITH THIS WAVE ALL MORNING...EVEN BACK OVER
IDAHO EARLIER...INDICATING ENHANCED MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. WOULD
STILL NOT RULE OUT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES WITH THE INITIAL WAVE. IN
FACT...A THUNDERSTORM HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF
GILLETTE WITH THIS LINE...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER A LINE
CAN UNZIP NORTHWARD DESPITE THE CIN THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. IF A
LINE CAN DEVELOP THERE...IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE AT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT BEFORE THE LINE EXITS INTO THE DAKOTAS.

THE SECONDARY WAVE IS STARTING TO DEVELOP A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH
OF RED LODGE DOWN TOWARD JACKSON WYOMING. TREND IN THE HRRR HAS
BEEN TO EVOLVE THIS LINE ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED.
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WHILE WOULDNT RULE OUT
A SEVERE REPORT...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY.

CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THUS KEEPING AN
OVERALL WET FORECAST GOING THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN COOLER...WITH DAY
TIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF QUIET FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
CONSISTENT WITH ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTH AND DEFLECTS THE FLOW OVER MONTANA TO THE SOUTHWEST
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS DRAG THE BULK OF THE
PACIFIC SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS
SLOWER AND A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FORCING AND THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEAK ENERGY AND GENERAL TROFINESS RESIDES
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF STRONGEST FORCING
OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT IF ECMWF IS CORRECT THIS COULD BE A BIT
LATE. CONTINUED 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MID 70S WEDNESDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/068 051/069 050/078 054/077 050/069 049/069 050/070
    64/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    22/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 046/066 043/068 043/079 046/077 043/068 044/069 045/072
    63/T    22/T    10/U    12/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 054/069 051/071 051/080 053/081 051/072 051/073 050/073
    55/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 056/072 052/073 052/079 054/080 053/071 053/072 052/071
    44/T    12/T    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 055/066 051/070 051/080 053/083 052/072 051/073 051/072
    65/T    23/T    10/U    01/U    22/T    33/T    22/T
BHK 054/071 049/070 049/077 051/080 050/073 049/070 049/069
    63/T    13/T    10/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 052/065 047/070 046/080 050/083 049/073 048/075 048/074
    55/T    22/T    10/U    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301449
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
849 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS THE FORECAST
REASONING BELOW REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...FROM NEAR MILES CITY TO SHERIDAN...TO
DEVELOP INTO STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BAKER AND EKALAKA BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THESE
LOCATIONS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ELIMINATED. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY ENTERING SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.
DONT EXPECT THIS ACTIVE TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE...BUT COULD BE A
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO AS TWO SEPARATE
SHORT WAVES TRACK THROUGH A BROADER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND REQUIRED
LIMITED ADJUSTMENTS. WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND WET
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND RIDE THE SW FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR REGION THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WE HAVE ANTICIPATED. IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THE MODELS ARE ALL PROGGING A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE FROM THE SE CORNER OF MONTANA TO
THE NE CORNER OF WYOMING. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CONVERGENT AREA IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...OUR TYPICAL SET UP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE ARE PROGGED JUST WEST OF THE
MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER AS UPWARD FORCING MOVES THROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. SO A SHORT WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BUFKIT DATA INDICATES
THE CAP BREAKING BETWEEN 3PM AND 4PM IN THE BAKER AREA. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WATCH BOX ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY. CIPS ANALOGS ALSO SHOW A HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND AND SOME
HAIL FOR THIS PATTERN WHICH PROVIDES US FURTHER CONFIDENCE OF THE
THREAT. THUS...WE WILL ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ZONES
IN THE FAR EAST TODAY...AND FOCUS ON IT A LITTLE HARDER IN OUR WX
STORY ETC.

THE SECOND AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WILL HELP ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. I RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY
SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ENERGY PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING LINGERING A FEW
SHOWERS BEHIND IT IN THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MINIMAL CHANGES ONCE AGAIN TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN. MODELS ARE HOWEVER TAKING TAKING DIFFERENT TACK ON HOW
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WHICH
HOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF. THERE IS
ALSO SOME INDICATION OF SHALLOW RIDGING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGE...CLIMBING ONLY TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AN UPPER
TROF WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...BUT MODELS VARY A BIT ON TIMING OF WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION AS WELL AS WHETHER TROF AXIS CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD OR NOT. THE GFS SEEMS TO FAVOR KEEPING THE TROF ANCHORED
OVER THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...AND ANGLING INTO WESTERN
MONTANA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE TROF...AND KEEPS THE BEST
ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH
POPS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS THE
GFS SEEMS MOST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE ECMWF IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM 24HRS AGO. THEREFORE...WILL ALSO
CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH HIGHS OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL BECOME PERSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 054/069 051/070 050/078 052/077 051/072 047/068
    7/T 64/T    22/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
LVM 071 046/067 044/068 044/078 045/077 046/072 046/067
    7/T 63/T    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    33/T
HDN 074 054/072 051/071 051/080 052/080 053/075 051/072
    6/T 55/T    22/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
MLS 077 056/073 053/072 052/080 054/080 053/075 050/071
    4/T 44/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    22/T    33/T
4BQ 083 055/070 051/071 051/080 053/082 054/076 053/074
    5/T 65/T    12/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
BHK 079 054/071 049/071 049/078 051/078 052/074 053/070
    5/T 63/T    13/T    11/U    01/U    23/T    33/T
SHR 080 052/068 047/070 045/080 048/080 050/075 049/072
    6/T 55/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    22/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





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