Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 250257
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
857 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
NIGHTTIME INVERSION SETTING UP QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES HAS DIMINISHED. ONLY SOME
ISOLATED POPS EXPECTED FROM BILLINGS TO MILES CITY TONIGHT BUT
THAT CHANCE WILL BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
ENERGY MOVING BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CAUSING THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. TWEAK TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA TO A WEST
DIRECTION. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE IS
PROVIDING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES SO THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CONSISTING OF A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. IN ADDITION...WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING EAST OF
BILLINGS...AS WELL AS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS IN
BETWEEN SUCH AS BILLINGS WILL SEE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOST
OF FRIDAY BUT THE AXIS GETS SHIFTED EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PROVIDE FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
WINDS BECOMING EAST AND SOUTHEAST ADVECTING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PLACE A WARM FRONT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES. THE LOW DRIFTS A BIT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
TAKING THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT.

THE 500MB LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. A DOUBLE-
BARRELED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO PROVIDING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN STORE
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREA. MODELS BRING INCREASING
PRECIP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON TAP TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WHERE BETTER SHEAR EXISTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE IN LIQUID FORM.
HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF SHERIDAN AND RED LODGE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES
COULD OCCUR BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WAS IN STORE FOR AREAS E OF KBIL
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. A STRONG
PACIFIC JET WILL CARVE OUT A POSITIVELY TILTED PACIFIC TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUN. AN UPPER LOW OVER E CO WILL ROTATE NE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MON. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN PHASE
WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW ON TUE AND ROTATE OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THU LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM AND THERE WILL BE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE SYSTEM/S SURFACE LOW...INTO MON.

THE ABOVE FACTORS WILL BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY E OF KBIL. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL THEN BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH
THU. CONTINUED WITH THE HIGH POPS OVER THE E SUN THROUGH MON.
AROUND AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE MT
THROUGH MON. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW COLD AIR INTO THE
AREA FROM THE N WHICH WILL CAUSE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE MT...ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT.
TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN SUN AND MON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E.

OTHERWISE WENT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH
WED. THE MODELS HAD THU DRYING OUT. EXPECTING ONLY A SLOW WARMUP
THROUGH THE WEEK AS MODELS KEEP THE COLD 850 MB AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRI MORN.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH 05Z...INCLUDING KLVM AND KBIL...WITH
BRIEF...ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 05Z EITHER. MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ROUTES BY FRI AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS/STORMS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI EVE. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/063 041/059 041/052 034/052 034/052 036/058 036/062
    23/W    66/T    87/W    43/W    33/W    22/W    11/U
LVM 038/056 036/053 035/052 033/052 032/055 035/059 035/065
    26/W    68/T    85/W    32/W    22/W    11/U    11/U
HDN 034/064 039/064 040/051 032/051 030/051 032/057 032/063
    22/W    44/T    78/W    65/W    33/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 039/067 045/065 040/048 032/046 030/047 033/052 033/057
    21/B    63/T    78/W    86/W    43/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 036/068 042/070 040/048 032/046 030/045 032/050 032/057
    11/B    33/T    78/W    86/W    53/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 037/066 043/063 038/046 032/043 028/043 030/048 031/055
    10/B    63/T    78/W    86/W    53/W    32/W    11/B
SHR 035/064 039/065 040/048 033/048 031/048 030/053 032/061
    23/W    43/T    68/W    65/W    33/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 242140
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
340 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE IS
PROVIDING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES SO THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CONSISTING OF A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. IN ADDITION...WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING EAST OF
BILLINGS...AS WELL AS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS IN
BETWEEN SUCH AS BILLINGS WILL SEE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOST
OF FRIDAY BUT THE AXIS GETS SHIFTED EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
UPPER LOW THAT MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PROVIDE FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
WINDS BECOMING EAST AND SOUTHEAST ADVECTING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PLACE A WARM FRONT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES. THE LOW DRIFTS A BIT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
TAKING THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT.

THE 500MB LOW OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. A DOUBLE-
BARRELED SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO PROVIDING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN STORE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREA. MODELS BRING INCREASING PRECIP INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
BE ON TAP TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE BETTER
SHEAR EXISTS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THE SHOWERS TO BE IN LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS OF SHERIDAN
AND RED LODGE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES COULD OCCUR BUT MAINLY ON
GRASSY SURFACES. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WAS IN STORE FOR AREAS E OF KBIL
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. A STRONG
PACIFIC JET WILL CARVE OUT A POSITIVELY TILTED PACIFIC TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUN. AN UPPER LOW OVER E CO WILL ROTATE NE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MON. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN PHASE
WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW ON TUE AND ROTATE OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH
THU LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM AND THERE WILL BE AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE SYSTEM/S SURFACE LOW...INTO MON.

THE ABOVE FACTORS WILL BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY E OF KBIL. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL THEN BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH
THU. CONTINUED WITH THE HIGH POPS OVER THE E SUN THROUGH MON.
AROUND AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE MT
THROUGH MON. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW COLD AIR INTO THE
AREA FROM THE N WHICH WILL CAUSE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE MT...ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT.
TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN SUN AND MON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E.

OTHERWISE WENT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH
WED. THE MODELS HAD THU DRYING OUT. EXPECTING ONLY A SLOW WARMUP
THROUGH THE WEEK AS MODELS KEEP THE COLD 850 MB AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KT OVER THE AREA WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT
LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM KLVM TO A KBIL TO KSHR
LINE ON FRI. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/063 041/059 041/052 034/052 034/052 036/058 036/062
    23/W    66/T    87/W    43/W    33/W    22/W    11/U
LVM 035/056 036/053 035/052 033/052 032/055 035/059 035/065
    26/W    68/T    85/W    32/W    22/W    11/U    11/U
HDN 036/064 039/064 040/051 032/051 030/051 032/057 032/063
    22/W    44/T    78/W    65/W    33/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 039/067 045/065 040/048 032/046 030/047 033/052 033/057
    21/B    63/T    78/W    86/W    43/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 037/068 042/070 040/048 032/046 030/045 032/050 032/057
    11/B    33/T    78/W    86/W    53/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 037/066 043/063 038/046 032/043 028/043 030/048 031/055
    10/B    63/T    78/W    86/W    53/W    32/W    11/B
SHR 034/064 039/065 040/048 033/048 031/048 030/053 032/061
    23/W    43/T    68/W    65/W    33/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 241530
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
930 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST BRINGING A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MOST AREAS BUT THE FAR EAST
SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE RIDGE IS NOT TOO STRONG AS A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING BRINGING A VERY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE. BELIEVE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE FROM BILLINGS AND AREAS WESTWARD SO HAVE
REMOVED POPS JUST A BIT FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS AND SOUTH DOWN
INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY. WINDS WILL MIX OUT ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND BE
GUSTY FROM THE WEST BUT NOT NEARLY AS WINDY AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY SLIDING UNDER
THE RIDGE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND
GRADIENT WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND BUT COULD SEE A SHOWER WET THE GROUND HERE AND THERE.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY...TROF ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES AS
STRONG ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS QUICKLY BACKS THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DIFFLUENCE INCREASING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY AND A COPIOUS
PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH OVER RIDE THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AT THE SURFACE THE INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INDUCES SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WHICH
PULLS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION...UPPER LEVEL LIFT...MID LEVEL
ENERGY AND UPSLOPE WINDS IS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE
EVENING FROM THE SOUTH SO TRENDED POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS LOOKS LIKE
AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

DEVELOPING TROF ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL PUSH INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN INTENSIFY IN
THE HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND LONG DURATION PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN PARTS. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING A MID LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF IN EASTERN CO BY 12Z SUN...
THEN LIFTING TO NE/SD BY 12Z MON. IMPRESSIVE MAGNITUDES OF
ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WITH PCPN
BECOMING FOCUSED IN OUR EAST ALONG A LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENT
ZONE. THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT CERTAINLY GIVE CREDENCE TO A
SLOWER EVOLVING AND MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACKING LOW. THESE
INCLUDE A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR NORTH...A NWLY JET WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PAC NW TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND AN ANOMALOUS SW-MOVING LOW WHICH WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PHASE WITH THE PLAINS LOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SO WITH CONFIDENCE HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR EAST
SUN-TUE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING SFC TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL. 00Z GFS REMAINS THE COLDEST OF ALL MODELS SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO -2C SUN NITE AND COLDER MON NITE. OTHER MODELS SHOW
VALUES CLOSER TO 0C. SO SOME WET SNOWFALL IS A POSSIBILITY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN RIDGES AND THE BIG HORN
MTNS...WHICH WILL BE FAVORED ONCE NW FLOW DEEPENS ON SUNDAY. EVEN
W/OUT THE SNOW THE PERIOD OF COLD AND WET WEATHER WILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO YOUNG LIVESTOCK.

BACKING UP TO SATURDAY...THE INITIAL STAGE OF THIS EVENT...UNSTABLE
AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT INTO SAT
NITE. THIS INCLUDES BILLINGS. SHEAR PROFILES ACTUALLY FAVOR SOME
STRONGER STORMS IN OUR SE NEAR INVERTED SFC TROF.

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY PERHAPS
ALL THE WAY TO WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DEEP EAST WINDS AND AN EVENTUAL
CANADIAN SFC HIGH. HAVE DROPPED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS THRU EACH OF
THESE DAYS...BUT LEFT ALONE OR RAISED LOW TEMPS A BIT GIVEN PCPN
AND CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED THRU THE PERIOD.

SHOULD SEE DRYING AND MODERATING TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW FINALLY DEPARTS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
AND HIGH CLOUD. A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO KBIL TO BRIDGER
LINE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF KBIL
OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AREAS
OF OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZYS AND NE BIG HORNS. EXPECT AREAS OF
OBSCURATION OVER THE BEARTOOTHS...ABSAROKAS AND CRAZYS OVERNIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-35 KTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND OVER SE MT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 040/061 041/058 040/050 035/053 036/051 038/059
    2/W 15/W    56/T    87/W    33/W    33/W    21/B
LVM 054 036/054 036/054 038/056 034/055 034/058 035/059
    3/W 36/W    68/T    85/W    32/W    23/W    11/B
HDN 062 036/064 039/064 037/049 033/052 032/051 032/059
    2/W 25/W    54/T    78/W    54/W    33/W    21/B
MLS 061 039/065 044/065 040/045 033/048 032/047 033/055
    0/N 22/W    53/T    78/W    86/W    43/W    21/B
4BQ 061 037/065 042/070 040/047 033/047 032/046 032/054
    0/B 23/W    43/T    78/W    86/W    53/W    21/B
BHK 058 037/063 041/063 038/045 033/045 030/044 030/052
    0/N 22/W    43/T    78/W    86/W    53/W    21/B
SHR 059 035/062 038/067 038/048 034/049 033/050 032/056
    1/B 24/W    53/T    68/W    64/W    33/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240937
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY SLIDING UNDER
THE RIDGE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND
GRADIENT WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND BUT COULD SEE A SHOWER WET THE GROUND HERE AND THERE.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY...TROF ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES AS
STRONG ENERGY DIVES OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS QUICKLY BACKS THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
SOUTH BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DIFFLUENCE INCREASING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY AND A COPIOUS
PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH OVER RIDE THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AT THE SURFACE THE INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INDUCES SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WHICH
PULLS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION...UPPER LEVEL LIFT...MID LEVEL
ENERGY AND UPSLOPE WINDS IS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE
EVENING FROM THE SOUTH SO TRENDED POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY THIS LOOKS LIKE
AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP MAYBE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

DEVELOPING TROF ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL PUSH INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN INTENSIFY IN
THE HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND LONG DURATION PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN PARTS. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING A MID LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF IN EASTERN CO BY 12Z SUN...
THEN LIFTING TO NE/SD BY 12Z MON. IMPRESSIVE MAGNITUDES OF
ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WITH PCPN
BECOMING FOCUSED IN OUR EAST ALONG A LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENT
ZONE. THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT CERTAINLY GIVE CREDENCE TO A
SLOWER EVOLVING AND MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACKING LOW. THESE
INCLUDE A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR NORTH...A NWLY JET WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PAC NW TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND AN ANOMALOUS SW-MOVING LOW WHICH WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PHASE WITH THE PLAINS LOW TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SO WITH CONFIDENCE HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR EAST
SUN-TUE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING SFC TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL. 00Z GFS REMAINS THE COLDEST OF ALL MODELS SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS TO -2C SUN NITE AND COLDER MON NITE. OTHER MODELS SHOW
VALUES CLOSER TO 0C. SO SOME WET SNOWFALL IS A POSSIBILITY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN RIDGES AND THE BIG HORN
MTNS...WHICH WILL BE FAVORED ONCE NW FLOW DEEPENS ON SUNDAY. EVEN
W/OUT THE SNOW THE PERIOD OF COLD AND WET WEATHER WILL BE
HAZARDOUS TO YOUNG LIVESTOCK.

BACKING UP TO SATURDAY...THE INITIAL STAGE OF THIS EVENT...UNSTABLE
AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT INTO SAT
NITE. THIS INCLUDES BILLINGS. SHEAR PROFILES ACTUALLY FAVOR SOME
STRONGER STORMS IN OUR SE NEAR INVERTED SFC TROF.

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY PERHAPS
ALL THE WAY TO WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DEEP EAST WINDS AND AN EVENTUAL
CANADIAN SFC HIGH. HAVE DROPPED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS THRU EACH OF
THESE DAYS...BUT LEFT ALONE OR RAISED LOW TEMPS A BIT GIVEN PCPN
AND CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED THRU THE PERIOD.

SHOULD SEE DRYING AND MODERATING TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW FINALLY DEPARTS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
AND HIGH CLOUD. PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A KBIL-KSHR LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A FEW MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-35 KTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 040/061 041/058 040/050 035/053 036/051 038/059
    2/W 15/W    56/T    87/W    33/W    33/W    21/B
LVM 054 036/054 036/054 038/056 034/055 034/058 035/059
    3/W 36/W    68/T    85/W    32/W    23/W    11/B
HDN 062 036/064 039/064 037/049 033/052 032/051 032/059
    2/W 25/W    54/T    78/W    54/W    33/W    21/B
MLS 061 039/065 044/065 040/045 033/048 032/047 033/055
    0/N 22/W    53/T    78/W    86/W    43/W    21/B
4BQ 061 037/065 042/070 040/047 033/047 032/046 032/054
    0/B 23/W    43/T    78/W    86/W    53/W    21/B
BHK 058 037/063 041/063 038/045 033/045 030/044 030/052
    0/N 22/W    43/T    78/W    86/W    53/W    21/B
SHR 059 035/062 038/067 038/048 034/049 033/050 032/056
    1/B 24/W    53/T    68/W    64/W    33/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240237
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
837 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. NIGHT
TIME TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS SETTING UP AND WINDS ALOFT ARE
ALREADY DECOUPLING FROM THE SURFACE. MAIN FORCING WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE DATKOA`S THIS
EVENING. THERE REMAINS WEAK JET DYNAMICS OVER THE AREA WITH LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET. EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ISOLATED
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH THE WEAK
LIFT ALOFT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AIR MASS DRYING OUT LATE
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILDS IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHER CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE STRONG PACIFIC FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE CURRENTLY
SHOWING THIS SUBSIDENCE AS WELL AS SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT AS
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ELIMINATE SHOWER CHANCES EXCEPT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OVER AND THE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE
HOWEVER BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT
PLACING A WARM FRONT ACROS THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS
PUT A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX EXCEPT FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
WHERE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE GFS HAD BEEN SHOWING A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE
WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO THE WETTER AND COLDER ECMWF. IN
ADDITION...MODEL DETAILS HAVE VARIED FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE VALUES. HOWEVER...THE NEW ECMWF
HAS COME IN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TERMS OF SHOWING A WARMER
AND DRIER WEEKEND SOLUTION. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD
A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS.

A SPLIT UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH MON. THE
MODELS CONTINUED TO CUTOFF A LOW WELL TO THE S OF THE REGION AND
ROTATE IT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MON. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH WHICH
BRINGS A SURFACE LOW INTO S MT ON SAT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
WAS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF THE AREA WITH THE SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT ON
SAT MORNING...WHILE OTHER PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO WESTERN AREAS.
SE MT WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE SCALED BACK
POPS OVER THE E BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPORTED BY
CAPES ON THE GFS. ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES ON SAT...ESPECIALLY
FROM KBIL E. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT
NIGHT SUPPORTING THE INHERITED LIKELY POPS. THE WARM 850 MB
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT FROM KBIL W BASED
ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS E DURING SUN WHICH WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DECREASE OVER THE W. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED A HALF INCH OVER SE MT. NUDGED TEMPERATURES
HIGHER ON SUN AS WELL. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
W TO E SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH WEAKENS OVER
THE AREA. DEFORMATION OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY FOR WED FOR NOW EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE PATTERN. MON WILL BE A COOLER DAY BUT THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND FOR TUE AND WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

OVERALL...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THE
REST OF TONIGHT...THOUGH W TO SW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE KLVM AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE A PROBLEM
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT...INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURS MORNING. THURS
AFTERNOON...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS A DISTURBANCE
GENERATES SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KBIL WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS THURS AFTERNOON. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/062 040/063 039/061 042/051 035/054 036/060 039/063
    12/W    22/W    64/T    66/W    32/W    22/W    11/U
LVM 037/055 034/063 035/059 039/055 034/055 034/064 036/067
    12/W    23/W    66/T    65/W    32/W    22/W    11/U
HDN 034/061 038/063 037/067 037/051 032/055 032/060 031/064
    11/B    22/W    44/T    66/W    42/W    22/W    11/U
MLS 036/062 039/061 038/065 040/048 032/054 032/055 034/063
    11/N    21/B    65/T    77/W    74/W    32/W    11/U
4BQ 034/060 037/058 038/071 041/051 032/054 032/054 031/062
    11/N    11/B    34/T    77/W    64/W    32/W    11/U
BHK 033/058 038/060 036/058 036/046 029/049 028/051 030/056
    11/N    11/B    65/T    67/W    75/W    32/W    11/U
SHR 032/060 035/065 039/068 039/050 034/052 033/057 032/063
    11/B    22/W    43/T    66/W    43/W    22/W    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 232145
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
345 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE STRONG PACIFIC FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE CURRENTLY
SHOWING THIS SUBSIDENCE AS WELL AS SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT AS
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ELIMINATE SHOWER CHANCES EXCEPT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OVER AND THE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE
HOWEVER BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT
PLACING A WARM FRONT ACROS THE CENTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS
PUT A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX EXCEPT FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
WHERE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE GFS HAD BEEN SHOWING A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE
WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO THE WETTER AND COLDER ECMWF. IN
ADDITION...MODEL DETAILS HAVE VARIED FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE VALUES. HOWEVER...THE NEW ECMWF
HAS COME IN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TERMS OF SHOWING A WARMER
AND DRIER WEEKEND SOLUTION. THUS HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD
A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS.

A SPLIT UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH MON. THE
MODELS CONTINUED TO CUTOFF A LOW WELL TO THE S OF THE REGION AND
ROTATE IT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MON. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE TROUGH WHICH
BRINGS A SURFACE LOW INTO S MT ON SAT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
WAS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF THE AREA WITH THE SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT ON
SAT MORNING...WHILE OTHER PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO WESTERN AREAS.
SE MT WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE SCALED BACK
POPS OVER THE E BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPORTED BY
CAPES ON THE GFS. ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES ON SAT...ESPECIALLY
FROM KBIL E. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA SAT
NIGHT SUPPORTING THE INHERITED LIKELY POPS. THE WARM 850 MB
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT FROM KBIL W BASED
ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS E DURING SUN WHICH WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DECREASE OVER THE W. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED A HALF INCH OVER SE MT. NUDGED TEMPERATURES
HIGHER ON SUN AS WELL. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
W TO E SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH WEAKENS OVER
THE AREA. DEFORMATION OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY FOR WED FOR NOW EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE PATTERN. MON WILL BE A COOLER DAY BUT THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND FOR TUE AND WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY W TO NW SURFACE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM KBIL W ON THU WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION TONIGHT THROUGH THU. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/062 040/063 039/061 042/051 035/054 036/060 039/063
    12/W    22/W    64/T    66/W    32/W    22/W    11/U
LVM 036/055 034/063 035/059 039/055 034/055 034/064 036/067
    12/W    23/W    66/T    65/W    32/W    22/W    11/U
HDN 036/061 038/063 037/067 037/051 032/055 032/060 031/064
    11/B    22/W    44/T    66/W    42/W    22/W    11/U
MLS 037/062 039/061 038/065 040/048 032/054 032/055 034/063
    11/N    21/B    65/T    77/W    74/W    32/W    11/U
4BQ 034/060 037/058 038/071 041/051 032/054 032/054 031/062
    11/N    11/B    34/T    77/W    64/W    32/W    11/U
BHK 033/058 038/060 036/058 036/046 029/049 028/051 030/056
    11/N    11/B    65/T    67/W    75/W    32/W    11/U
SHR 032/060 035/065 039/068 039/050 034/052 033/057 032/063
    21/B    22/W    43/T    66/W    43/W    22/W    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 231554
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

STRONG PACIFIC FRONT HAS WORKED ITS WAY EAST OF THE STATE AND HAS
TAKEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH IT. RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THESE WILL MOVE OUT
LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A BLUSTERY DAY WITH WINDS GUSTING IN THE
40 TO 50 MPH RANGE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AREAS TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
FORECAST HAS THIS ALL HANDLED WELL SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS CENTERED
OVER WESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL AREAS...JUST EAST OF BILLINGS...AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY MID MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GREATEST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
DESPITE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT. INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THOUGH THERE
ARE STILL A FEW AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT AS WELL AS
OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.
AS A RESULT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER TODAY. STRONG MIXING TODAY
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO WORK TO THE SURFACE AND EXPECT
GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH TO BE COMMON INTO THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 50 MPH FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG
TIMBER TODAY BUT DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT
CROSSWIND EXPOSURE ALONG I-90. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AS IT
PASSES SO KEPT LOW POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
30S...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S OVER WESTERN VALLEYS.

THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY BUT LESS WINDY THAN TODAY. WITH CONTINUED
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
BEFORE DEVELOPING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. FRIDAY IS A DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND MAINLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FALL AND MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE. ONE OF THE SUBTLETIES IN THE FORECAST IS HOW
QUICKLY THE AIRMASS MOISTENS IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL PLUME
GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW BY SUNDAY BUT THEY ARE DIFFERING
ON HOW COOL AND HOW DEEP THE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING ON SUNDAY. OPTED FOR NO CHANGES
SINCE ECMWF SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COOLER SOLUTION BUT GFS TRIES TO
BE WARMER AND PRODUCE A BIT LESS PRECIPITATION. WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM UP TEMPS.

BREAK IN THE WEATHER STARTS ON MONDAY THOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY
HANG INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR PART OF THE DAY. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOK DRIER AND WARMER. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY W TO NW SURFACE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 TO 40 KT. OTHERWISE EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS E OF KBIL WILL BECOME VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION OVER
THE BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 036/060 039/062 039/052 039/044 032/052 038/061
    2/W 32/W    22/W    44/W    66/W    32/W    22/W
LVM 047 034/054 033/063 035/052 038/050 030/056 034/066
    3/W 32/W    23/W    46/W    66/W    32/W    23/W
HDN 056 036/061 038/063 037/058 037/046 031/052 034/062
    2/W 32/W    22/W    44/W    66/W    42/W    21/B
MLS 059 037/060 038/059 037/047 037/042 029/049 030/053
    3/W 22/W    11/B    66/W    77/W    74/W    21/B
4BQ 058 034/059 037/058 034/054 036/047 029/050 030/053
    3/W 31/N    11/B    44/W    77/W    63/W    31/B
BHK 058 034/056 036/058 033/045 032/039 026/045 027/050
    3/W 22/W    11/B    46/W    67/W    74/W    21/B
SHR 052 031/057 034/065 038/062 040/047 033/051 034/057
    2/W 22/W    22/W    33/W    66/W    43/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230957
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
357 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS CENTERED
OVER WESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO CENTRAL AREAS...JUST EAST OF BILLINGS...AND WILL PUSH
THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA MID MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GREATEST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
DESPITE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT. INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...THOUGH THERE
ARE STILL A FEW AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT AS WELL AS
OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.
AS A RESULT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER TODAY. STRONG MIXING TODAY
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO WORK TO THE SURFACE AND EXPECT
GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH TO BE COMMON INTO THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 50 MPH FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG
TIMBER TODAY BUT DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT
CROSSWIND EXPOSURE ALONG I-90. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AS IT
PASSES SO KEPT LOW POPS IN PLACE. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
30S...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S OVER WESTERN VALLEYS.

THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY BUT LESS WINDY THAN TODAY. WITH CONTINUED
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
BEFORE DEVELOPING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. FRIDAY IS A DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND MAINLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FALL AND MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES UPSLOPE. ONE OF THE SUBTLETIES IN THE FORECAST IS HOW
QUICKLY THE AIRMASS MOISTENS IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL PLUME
GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW BY SUNDAY BUT THEY ARE DIFFERING
ON HOW COOL AND HOW DEEP THE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING ON SUNDAY. OPTED FOR NO CHANGES
SINCE ECMWF SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COOLER SOLUTION BUT GFS TRIES TO
BE WARMER AND PRODUCE A BIT LESS PRECIPITATION. WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM UP TEMPS.

BREAK IN THE WEATHER STARTS ON MONDAY THOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY
HANG INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR PART OF THE DAY. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOK DRIER AND WARMER. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 036/060 039/062 039/052 039/044 032/052 038/061
    2/W 32/W    22/W    44/W    66/W    32/W    22/W
LVM 047 034/054 033/063 035/052 038/050 030/056 034/066
    3/W 32/W    23/W    46/W    66/W    32/W    23/W
HDN 056 036/061 038/063 037/058 037/046 031/052 034/062
    2/W 32/W    22/W    44/W    66/W    42/W    21/B
MLS 059 037/060 038/059 037/047 037/042 029/049 030/053
    3/W 22/W    11/B    66/W    77/W    74/W    21/B
4BQ 058 034/059 037/058 034/054 036/047 029/050 030/053
    3/W 31/N    11/B    44/W    77/W    63/W    31/B
BHK 058 034/056 036/058 033/045 032/039 026/045 027/050
    3/W 22/W    11/B    46/W    67/W    74/W    21/B
SHR 052 031/057 034/065 038/062 040/047 033/051 034/057
    2/W 22/W    22/W    33/W    66/W    43/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230309
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
909 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT AND ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH LIVINGSTON AND WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH BILLINGS BY 06Z AND MILES CITY
AROUND 12Z. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATE
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE FRONT FROM MAINLY FROM BILLINGS WEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING AS FRONT WILL NOT REACH THAT AREA UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL WITH THE HRRR SHOWING CONVECTION
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN KICKS IN TONIGHT AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. OUR MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
OUR PRIMARILY WIND RELATED. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF
RIAN AND SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER US THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE SCATTERED WITH AMOUNTS LIMITED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

QUITE A BIT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STREAMING OUT IN
FRONT OF TROUGH WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST FROM THE
GALLATIN NORTHWARD LATE TODAY. THAT SAID...THE UPPER TROUGH HAS
SOME GOOD DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT OF IT WHICH MAY HELP SPREAD A
FEW SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORM FURTHER EAST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW CELLS TURN SEVERE OVER PARK COUNTY UP TO
WHEATLAND WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS THANKS TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES. WOULD EXPECT THIS MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGED TO COME
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT SLIDING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND WIND SWITCH SHOW GOOD PUNCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA...AND COME THROUGH BILLINGS GENERALLY AROUND 06Z
GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. WIND SPEEDS AT 850-700MB ARE NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 2MB AN HOUR WITH
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IMPLY A THREAT OF SOME STRONG WIND IN
FAVORABLE AREAS. WE WILL LIKELY HANDLE THIS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOP POST FRONTAL BAND OF QPF LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST ON THE PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE REGION...BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE WIND WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUIDANCE IS STILL INSINUATING SOME
STRONG WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER VICINITIES...AND
POSSIBLY HARLOWTON AND COLUMBUS. I AM TEMPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT DOWN ON THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS. DO NOT WANT TO
HANDCUFF US WITH A WIND HIGHLIGHT THAT IS BORDERLINE AND TRENDING
DOWN. WILL THEREFORE DEFER TO NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS FOR ACTING ON
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER VICINITY FOR
LATTER HALF OF TOMORROW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE WIND
THREATS IN WEATHER STORIES AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
SUCH AS TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIP. LARGE TROUGH
AND UPPER LOW MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RIDGING TO BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN WYOMING. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY BRINGING WARM SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. AN INVERTED
TROUGH SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AREAS. PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE RED
LODGE FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER..SURFACE WINDS AND ALOFT
QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY RESULTING IN MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

MODELS THEN SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIP MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF BILLINGS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA AND STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIP
LOOK TO BE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF BEING
THE COLDER OF THE TWO AS THE LATEST GFS HAS COME IN 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE. AS A RESULT...MADE VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE KLVM AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE KBIL AREA BY 07Z AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE KSHR
AND KMLS AREAS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND...POTENTIALLY...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. VERY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/057 036/061 038/060 039/052 037/044 032/052 036/057
    62/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/O    32/W    22/W
LVM 037/051 034/059 035/061 035/052 036/050 030/056 032/062
    63/W    33/W    23/W    46/W    66/O    32/W    23/W
HDN 044/060 034/062 035/061 037/058 035/046 031/052 032/058
    53/W    31/N    22/W    44/W    66/O    42/W    22/W
MLS 047/060 036/059 036/057 037/047 035/042 029/049 028/049
    44/W    32/W    11/B    66/W    77/O    74/W    21/B
4BQ 048/060 034/061 035/056 034/054 034/047 029/050 028/049
    33/W    22/W    11/B    44/W    66/O    63/W    31/B
BHK 047/060 033/057 033/053 033/045 030/039 026/045 025/046
    33/T    22/W    11/B    46/W    67/O    74/W    21/B
SHR 042/056 031/060 035/063 038/062 038/047 033/051 032/053
    33/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/R    43/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230133
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
733 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR WHEATLAND/SWEET
GRASS AND PARK COUNTIES TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS
CAUSING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND
MILES CITY AND BAKER SHORT AFTER 12Z. THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO TONIGHT FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AROUND 9 PM IF NECESSARY.
RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN KICKS IN TONIGHT AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. OUR MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
OUR PRIMARILY WIND RELATED. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF
RIAN AND SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER US THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE SCATTERED WITH AMOUNTS LIMITED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

QUITE A BIT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STREAMING OUT IN
FRONT OF TROUGH WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST FROM THE
GALLATIN NORTHWARD LATE TODAY. THAT SAID...THE UPPER TROUGH HAS
SOME GOOD DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT OF IT WHICH MAY HELP SPREAD A
FEW SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORM FURTHER EAST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW CELLS TURN SEVERE OVER PARK COUNTY UP TO
WHEATLAND WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS THANKS TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES. WOULD EXPECT THIS MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGED TO COME
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT SLIDING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND WIND SWITCH SHOW GOOD PUNCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA...AND COME THROUGH BILLINGS GENERALLY AROUND 06Z
GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. WIND SPEEDS AT 850-700MB ARE NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 2MB AN HOUR WITH
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IMPLY A THREAT OF SOME STRONG WIND IN
FAVORABLE AREAS. WE WILL LIKELY HANDLE THIS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOP POST FRONTAL BAND OF QPF LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST ON THE PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE REGION...BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE WIND WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUIDANCE IS STILL INSINUATING SOME
STRONG WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER VICINITIES...AND
POSSIBLY HARLOWTON AND COLUMBUS. I AM TEMPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT DOWN ON THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS. DO NOT WANT TO
HANDCUFF US WITH A WIND HIGHLIGHT THAT IS BORDERLINE AND TRENDING
DOWN. WILL THEREFORE DEFER TO NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS FOR ACTING ON
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER VICINITY FOR
LATTER HALF OF TOMORROW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE WIND
THREATS IN WEATHER STORIES AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
SUCH AS TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIP. LARGE TROUGH
AND UPPER LOW MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RIDGING TO BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN WYOMING. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY BRINGING WARM SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. AN INVERTED
TROUGH SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AREAS. PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE RED
LODGE FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER..SURFACE WINDS AND ALOFT
QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY RESULTING IN MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

MODELS THEN SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIP MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF BILLINGS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA AND STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIP
LOOK TO BE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF BEING
THE COLDER OF THE TWO AS THE LATEST GFS HAS COME IN 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE. AS A RESULT...MADE VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KLVM AREA
AROUND 03Z AND THE BILLINGS AREA AROUND 06Z AND BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z ALONG AND EAST OF A KMLS-KSHR LINE. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/057 036/061 038/060 039/052 037/044 032/052 036/057
    62/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/O    32/W    22/W
LVM 037/051 034/059 035/061 035/052 036/050 030/056 032/062
    63/W    33/W    23/W    46/W    66/O    32/W    23/W
HDN 044/060 034/062 035/061 037/058 035/046 031/052 032/058
    53/W    31/N    22/W    44/W    66/O    42/W    22/W
MLS 047/060 036/059 036/057 037/047 035/042 029/049 028/049
    44/W    32/W    11/B    66/W    77/O    74/W    21/B
4BQ 048/060 034/061 035/056 034/054 034/047 029/050 028/049
    33/W    22/W    11/B    44/W    66/O    63/W    31/B
BHK 047/060 033/057 033/053 033/045 030/039 026/045 025/046
    33/T    22/W    11/B    46/W    67/O    74/W    21/B
SHR 042/056 031/060 035/063 038/062 038/047 033/051 032/053
    33/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/R    43/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 222055
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
255 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN KICKS IN TONIGHT AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. OUR MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
OUR PRIMARILY WIND RELATED. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF
RIAN AND SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVER US THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE SCATTERED WITH AMOUNTS LIMITED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO DEEP SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM.

QUITE A BIT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STREAMING OUT IN
FRONT OF TROUGH WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST FROM THE
GALLATIN NORTHWARD LATE TODAY. THAT SAID...THE UPPER TROUGH HAS
SOME GOOD DIFFLUENCE OUT IN FRONT OF IT WHICH MAY HELP SPREAD A
FEW SHOWERS AND STRAY THUNDERSTORM FURTHER EAST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE COULD SEE A FEW CELLS TURN SEVERE OVER PARK COUNTY UP TO
WHEATLAND WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS THANKS TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES. WOULD EXPECT THIS MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z
AND 04Z. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGED TO COME
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT SLIDING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND WIND SWITCH SHOW GOOD PUNCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA...AND COME THROUGH BILLINGS GENERALLY AROUND 06Z
GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. WIND SPEEDS AT 850-700MB ARE NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 2MB AN HOUR WITH
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IMPLY A THREAT OF SOME STRONG WIND IN
FAVORABLE AREAS. WE WILL LIKELY HANDLE THIS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOP POST FRONTAL BAND OF QPF LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST ON THE PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE REGION...BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE WIND WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUIDANCE IS STILL INSINUATING SOME
STRONG WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER VICINITIES...AND
POSSIBLY HARLOWTON AND COLUMBUS. I AM TEMPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT DOWN ON THE 12Z CYCLE
RUNS. DO NOT WANT TO HANDCUFF US WITH A WIND HIGHLIGHT THAT IS
BORDERLINE AND TRENDING DOWN. WILL THEREFORE DEFER TO NEXT COUPLE
OF SHIFTS FOR ACTING ON POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON TO
BIG TIMBER VICINITY FOR LATTER HALF OF TOMORROW. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO EMPHASIZE WIND THREATS IN WEATHER STORIES AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCTS. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
SUCH AS TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIP. LARGE TROUGH
AND UPPER LOW MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RIDGING TO BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA/NORTHERN WYOMING. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY BRINGING WARM SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES
WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. AN INVERTED
TROUGH SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AREAS. PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE RED
LODGE FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER..SURFACE WINDS AND ALOFT
QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY RESULTING IN MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

MODELS THEN SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE PRECIP MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF BILLINGS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA AND STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS LOW WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIP
LOOK TO BE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF BEING
THE COLDER OF THE TWO AS THE LATEST GFS HAS COME IN 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN ITS PREVIOUS CYCLE. AS A RESULT...MADE VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AND KEPT TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KLVM AREA
AROUND 03Z AND THE BILLINGS AREA AROUND 06Z AND BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z ALONG AND EAST OF A KMLS-KSHR LINE. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/057 036/061 038/060 039/052 037/044 032/052 036/057
    62/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/O    32/W    22/W
LVM 037/051 034/059 035/061 035/052 036/050 030/056 032/062
    63/W    33/W    23/W    46/W    66/O    32/W    23/W
HDN 044/060 034/062 035/061 037/058 035/046 031/052 032/058
    53/W    31/N    22/W    44/W    66/O    42/W    22/W
MLS 047/060 036/059 036/057 037/047 035/042 029/049 028/049
    44/W    32/W    11/B    66/W    77/O    74/W    21/B
4BQ 048/060 034/061 035/056 034/054 034/047 029/050 028/049
    33/W    22/W    11/B    44/W    66/O    63/W    31/B
BHK 047/060 033/057 033/053 033/045 030/039 026/045 025/046
    33/T    22/W    11/B    46/W    67/O    74/W    21/B
SHR 042/056 031/060 035/063 038/062 038/047 033/051 032/053
    33/W    22/W    22/W    44/W    66/R    43/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28-40-41-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 221534
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP AROUND THE PRYORS AND BIG HORNS THIS
MORNING AS SOME WEAK IMPULSES/MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF LARGE TROUGH TO THE WEST. ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THESE. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE. PACIFIC FRONT TONIGHT MAY HAVE A GOOD PUNCH TO IT
WITH SHOWERS...SOME THUNDER...AND STRONG WINDS. WIND WILL ALSO BE
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MIXING BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. FOR THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION WE WILL CONTEMPLATE IF WE
NEED ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR TOMORROW. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 30 TO
50 MPH EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BREAK DOWN BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WARM AND DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 70S. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOWER 80S THAT SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT IF A BROADER BREAK IN CLOUDS DEVELOPS ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY WITH
BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. STRONG PVA SPREADS INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO GO WITH STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR FORCING. THESE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT EASTWARD REACHING BILLING
LATE IN THE EVENING AND PUSHING THROUGH FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT FREEZING LEVELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 4
TO 6KFT SO HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH STORMS TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 50 MPH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 50
MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE 70S ON TUESDAY TO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER. ANOTHER STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES INTO THE TROF FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COMBINES WITH LINGERING FRONTOGENESIS FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN
SNOW MIX AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AS MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A COLD AND WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
SNOW IS PART OF THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

BEFORE THE WEEKEND THURSDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTH DAKOTA ROTATING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BRINING DECREASING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE. ALSO WILL SEE
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

FRIDAY SHORT LIVED RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL YIELD TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS OVER WYOMING AND
CAUSES A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AT THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING TOO WARM BUT FRIDAY DOES LOOK
MAINLY DRY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS BUILDING
IN SOUTH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING A BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH SOUTHERN
MONTANA NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION...PRECIPITATION HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY
LATE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MODELS DEEPEN A WAVE OVER NEBRASKA AT
THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT STRENGTHENS THE PROCESSES STARTED
ON SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE LIFT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF STAYING SNOW ON SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND ADDED SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST MONTANA
COULD STAY IN THE COLD AND WET. WESTERN AREAS WILL START SEEING A
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL SEE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN AS BROAD
RIDGING HEADS INTO THE WEST. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS AROUND KLVM AROUND 21Z SPREADING EAST TO KBIL BY 03Z.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE INTENSE AND PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
SMALL HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY NEAR ANY STORMS.
STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH NEAR ANY STORMS. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 044/055 037/060 036/059 038/049 035/043 031/052
    2/T 62/W    43/W    22/W    44/W    54/W    32/W
LVM 070 037/049 034/060 035/061 035/049 034/049 029/056
    4/T 63/W    43/W    23/W    45/W    54/W    22/W
HDN 077 045/058 035/060 033/061 037/055 034/045 030/052
    2/T 52/W    43/W    22/W    44/W    65/W    32/W
MLS 076 048/059 037/059 032/055 035/044 033/041 028/049
    1/B 43/W    33/W    11/B    45/W    76/W    43/W
4BQ 077 050/059 035/059 032/056 034/051 032/046 028/050
    1/B 33/W    33/W    11/B    45/W    66/W    43/W
BHK 071 049/059 035/056 029/050 031/042 028/038 025/045
    1/N 33/W    22/W    11/B    45/W    66/J    43/W
SHR 075 043/054 032/058 033/061 036/059 036/046 032/051
    1/B 33/W    33/W    22/W    43/W    65/W    43/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 221002
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
402 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 30 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BREAK DOWN BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WARM AND DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 70S. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOWER 80S THAT SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT IF A BROADER BREAK IN CLOUDS DEVELOPS ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY WITH
BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. STRONG PVA SPREADS INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO GO WITH STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR FORCING. THESE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT EASTWARD REACHING BILLING
LATE IN THE EVENING AND PUSHING THROUGH FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT FREEZING LEVELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 4
TO 6KFT SO HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH STORMS TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 50 MPH DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL MIXING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 50
MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE 70S ON TUESDAY TO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER. ANOTHER STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES INTO THE TROF FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COMBINES WITH LINGERING FRONTOGENESIS FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN
SNOW MIX AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AS MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A COLD AND WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
SNOW IS PART OF THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

BEFORE THE WEEKEND THURSDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTH DAKOTA ROTATING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BRINING DECREASING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE. ALSO WILL SEE
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

FRIDAY SHORT LIVED RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL YIELD TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS OVER WYOMING AND
CAUSES A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AT THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING TOO WARM BUT FRIDAY DOES LOOK
MAINLY DRY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS BUILDING
IN SOUTH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING A BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH SOUTHERN
MONTANA NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION...PRECIPITATION HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY
LATE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MODELS DEEPEN A WAVE OVER NEBRASKA AT
THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT STRENGTHENS THE PROCESSES STARTED
ON SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE LIFT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF STAYING SNOW ON SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND ADDED SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST MONTANA
COULD STAY IN THE COLD AND WET. WESTERN AREAS WILL START SEEING A
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL SEE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN AS BROAD
RIDGING HEADS INTO THE WEST. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS AROUND KLVM AROUND 21Z SPREADING EAST TO KBIL BY 03Z.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE INTENSE AND PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
SMALL HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY NEAR ANY STORMS.
STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH NEAR ANY STORMS. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 044/055 037/060 036/059 038/049 035/043 031/052
    2/T 52/W    43/W    22/W    44/W    54/W    32/W
LVM 070 037/049 034/060 035/061 035/049 034/049 029/056
    5/T 63/W    43/W    23/W    45/W    54/W    22/W
HDN 077 045/058 035/060 033/061 037/055 034/045 030/052
    2/T 52/W    43/W    22/W    44/W    65/W    32/W
MLS 076 048/059 037/059 032/055 035/044 033/041 028/049
    1/B 63/W    33/W    11/B    45/W    76/W    43/W
4BQ 077 050/059 035/059 032/056 034/051 032/046 028/050
    1/B 33/W    33/W    11/B    45/W    66/W    43/W
BHK 071 049/059 035/056 029/050 031/042 028/038 025/045
    0/N 43/W    22/W    11/B    45/W    66/J    43/W
SHR 075 043/054 032/058 033/061 036/059 036/046 032/051
    1/E 33/W    33/W    22/W    43/W    65/W    43/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities