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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180259
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
859 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND PRODUCED SOME RETURNS ON KBLX RADAR TO THE NORTH OF BILLINGS.
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THESE RETURNS TO PUSH NORTHWARD. LOWERED POPS
FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON THIS. MODELS ALL WANT TO SWING ENERGY
INTO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. HAVE MAINTAINED
POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. LOWERED WINDS MOST
LOCATIONS AS GRADIENT WAS PRETTY WEAK AT THE MOMENT AND THIS
SUPPORTED BY LIGHT WINDS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TOWARD MORNING
AND ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP. LOWS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER
TONIGHT WITH A WARMER DAY TODAY AND CLOUDS OVERHEAD. LOWS LOOK IN
GOOD SHAPE. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

CUMULUS FIELD HAD DEVELOPED OVER E PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THIS AREA. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WERE
AROUND 20 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY EVENING
SHOWERS IN THE E.

A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...SEEN OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL BE
JUST REACHING THE WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z FRI. SOME WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SOME POPS
IN THE NW THROUGH 06Z. SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL THEN ARRIVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT SO HAD LOW POPS OVER THE W AFTER 06Z.
EXPECTING A WARM PREFRONTAL NIGHT AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE MIN TEMPERATURES.

THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH N MT FRI THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. MODELS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN TWO
PARTS...WITH THE SECOND PART LAGGING BEHIND THE FIRST ONE UNTIL
AROUND 00Z SAT. WITH THE FIRST PART OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING...HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FURTHER E THROUGH 18Z. KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS MORE FRONTOGENESIS MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SE LOOKED FINE. THE
WRF SHOWED A FEW HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF SURFACE CAPE NEAR THE SE MT
BORDER AND OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY BY 00Z SAT...SO KEPT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER OVER SE MT AND SHERIDAN COUNTY INTO FRI EVENING. THE
SECOND PART OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM
KBIL E FRI EVENING. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AFTER 06Z.
RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ON FRI BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 700
MB AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FRI NIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT BRINGING A WARM
AND DRY DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SAT NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE FOR BOTH
PERIODS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN OUR AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MUST STRESS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND WILL COME THRU EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WE MAY GET BY WITH ONLY
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. MIXING WILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG SO WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DESPITE THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. THAT BEING SAID...BELOW ZERO 700MB TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...SO HAVE DROPPED FCST TEMPS JUST A BIT.

PACIFIC TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING
FOR AMPLIFIED SW FLOW OVER US MON/TUE...WITH HEIGHT FALLS OPENING
THE DOOR TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE. THERMAL
LOW IN SE MT ALONG WITH SOME HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
YIELD SOME EARLY SEASON TSTM ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA BY TUE.
OTHERWISE...TUE WILL BE THE DAY THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY REALLY
INCREASES DUE TO TROF PUSHING ASHORE AND STRONGER ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS ALSO WHEN MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER.

GFS/ECMWF PAINT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BY WED/THU. THE
GFS WRAPS A MOIST TROWAL INTO OUR REGION WED THRU THU...WITH
UPPER LOW SHIFTING JUST TO OUR EAST. THE ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARD A
MORE PROGRESSIVE EVENT FOR US...LIFTING THE LOW NORTH AND ALLOWING
FOR DRIER AIR WITH INCREASED DOWNSLOPING. THE CANADIAN KEEPS THE
NORTHERLY JET FURTHER WEST BY 144 HOURS. ENSEMBLES AGREE IN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE SHIFT...BUT ARE VERY SCATTERED IN THE IMPORTANT
DETAILS...SO IMPOSSIBLE NOW TO SAY WHICH WAY IT WILL GO FOR US.
AFTER A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT PER AFOREMENTIONED GREAT
BASIN SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP POPS BROADBRUSHED AT A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE WED/THU PERIOD. AGAIN...STRESS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY
HERE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT IN A
GRAPHIC/HWO.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED...IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...850MB TEMPS
FALLING BELOW ZERO UNDER THE TROWAL COULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WET SNOWFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MTNS. SO
IF A GOOD PCPN EVENT DEVELOPS...AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT RAIN TO
CHANGE TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOMETHING TO
THINK ABOUT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AFTER A MILD TUE EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPS OF
SOME MAGNITUDE FOR WED/THU. WILL KEEP DAY 6/7 TEMPS AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND COOLER GFS. JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUD OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 30
KTS OR HIGHER AT KLVM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/067 036/067 041/070 039/069 044/070 045/054 038/050
    04/W    30/U    00/U    00/B    22/T    55/W    44/W
LVM 042/064 033/066 039/068 037/069 041/067 039/052 033/052
    33/W    20/U    00/U    01/B    24/T    66/W    43/W
HDN 036/070 036/068 040/072 036/070 039/073 041/056 034/051
    04/W    30/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    45/W    44/W
MLS 037/068 036/065 040/072 039/069 041/071 043/058 036/051
    03/W    30/N    00/U    00/U    12/W    35/T    44/W
4BQ 037/072 036/068 041/073 039/070 042/074 044/062 033/052
    02/T    30/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    24/T    44/W
BHK 032/067 035/063 036/071 038/066 040/068 043/061 034/047
    02/W    30/N    00/U    00/U    12/W    34/T    44/W
SHR 037/072 034/066 037/070 036/069 039/074 042/058 037/050
    02/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    34/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 172105
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
305 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

CUMULUS FIELD HAD DEVELOPED OVER E PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THIS AREA. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WERE
AROUND 20 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY EVENING
SHOWERS IN THE E.

A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE...SEEN OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL BE
JUST REACHING THE WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z FRI. SOME WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NW ZONES THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SOME POPS
IN THE NW THROUGH 06Z. SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL THEN ARRIVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT SO HAD LOW POPS OVER THE W AFTER 06Z.
EXPECTING A WARM PREFRONTAL NIGHT AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE MIN TEMPERATURES.

THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH N MT FRI THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. MODELS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN TWO
PARTS...WITH THE SECOND PART LAGGING BEHIND THE FIRST ONE UNTIL
AROUND 00Z SAT. WITH THE FIRST PART OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING...HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FURTHER E THROUGH 18Z. KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS MORE FRONTOGENESIS MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SE LOOKED FINE. THE
WRF SHOWED A FEW HUNDRED JOULES/KG OF SURFACE CAPE NEAR THE SE MT
BORDER AND OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY BY 00Z SAT...SO KEPT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER OVER SE MT AND SHERIDAN COUNTY INTO FRI EVENING. THE
SECOND PART OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM
KBIL E FRI EVENING. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AFTER 06Z.
RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ON FRI BASED ON MIXING TO AROUND 700
MB AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FRI NIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT BRINGING A WARM
AND DRY DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA SAT NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE FOR BOTH
PERIODS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN OUR AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MUST STRESS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND WILL COME THRU EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WE MAY GET BY WITH ONLY
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. MIXING WILL BE
FAIRLY STRONG SO WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DESPITE THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. THAT BEING SAID...BELOW ZERO 700MB TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...SO HAVE DROPPED FCST TEMPS JUST A BIT.

PACIFIC TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING
FOR AMPLIFIED SW FLOW OVER US MON/TUE...WITH HEIGHT FALLS OPENING
THE DOOR TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE MON AND ESPECIALLY TUE. THERMAL
LOW IN SE MT ALONG WITH SOME HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
YIELD SOME EARLY SEASON TSTM ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA BY TUE.
OTHERWISE...TUE WILL BE THE DAY THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY REALLY
INCREASES DUE TO TROF PUSHING ASHORE AND STRONGER ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS ALSO WHEN MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER.

GFS/ECMWF PAINT COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BY WED/THU. THE
GFS WRAPS A MOIST TROWAL INTO OUR REGION WED THRU THU...WITH
UPPER LOW SHIFTING JUST TO OUR EAST. THE ECMWF HAS MOVED TOWARD A
MORE PROGRESSIVE EVENT FOR US...LIFTING THE LOW NORTH AND ALLOWING
FOR DRIER AIR WITH INCREASED DOWNSLOPING. THE CANADIAN KEEPS THE
NORTHERLY JET FURTHER WEST BY 144 HOURS. ENSEMBLES AGREE IN THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE SHIFT...BUT ARE VERY SCATTERED IN THE IMPORTANT
DETAILS...SO IMPOSSIBLE NOW TO SAY WHICH WAY IT WILL GO FOR US.
AFTER A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE NIGHT PER AFOREMENTIONED GREAT
BASIN SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP POPS BROADBRUSHED AT A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE WED/THU PERIOD. AGAIN...STRESS TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY
HERE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT IN A
GRAPHIC/HWO.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED...IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...850MB TEMPS
FALLING BELOW ZERO UNDER THE TROWAL COULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WET SNOWFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MTNS. SO
IF A GOOD PCPN EVENT DEVELOPS...AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT RAIN TO
CHANGE TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOMETHING TO
THINK ABOUT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AFTER A MILD TUE EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPS OF
SOME MAGNITUDE FOR WED/THU. WILL KEEP DAY 6/7 TEMPS AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND COOLER GFS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUD OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 30
KTS OR HIGHER AT KLVM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/067 036/067 041/070 039/069 044/070 045/054 038/050
    14/W    30/U    00/U    00/B    22/T    55/W    44/W
LVM 042/064 033/066 039/068 037/069 041/067 039/052 033/052
    33/W    20/U    00/U    01/B    24/T    66/W    43/W
HDN 036/070 036/068 040/072 036/070 039/073 041/056 034/051
    04/W    30/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    45/W    44/W
MLS 037/068 036/065 040/072 039/069 041/071 043/058 036/051
    03/W    30/N    00/U    00/U    12/W    35/T    44/W
4BQ 037/072 036/068 041/073 039/070 042/074 044/062 033/052
    02/T    30/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    24/T    44/W
BHK 032/067 035/063 036/071 038/066 040/068 043/061 034/047
    02/W    30/N    00/U    00/U    12/W    34/T    44/W
SHR 037/072 034/066 037/070 036/069 039/074 042/058 037/050
    02/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    34/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 171534
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
N-S ORIENTED UPPER JET WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO SE MT THIS MORNING...THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HRRR/SSEO SHOWED ONLY A VERY MINIMAL CHANCE OF THUNDER
OVER THE SE THIS AFTERNOON SO JUST LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BASED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON TO PARTLY SUNNY.
HRRR SHOWED PATCHY STRATUS BURNING OFF THIS MORNING. WEB CAMS ALSO
SHOWED FOG LIFTING AT JUDITH GAP SO DID NOT ADD FOG THERE DESPITE
LOW TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD. REMOVED MORNING MOUNTAIN POPS
BASED ON TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND WEBCAMS. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKED FINE BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND MIXING TO
AROUND 700 MB. WIND FORECAST WAS ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SLIDING EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET
AND AN ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD. PRESSURE
RISES AND A STIFF EAST WIND HAVE ENDED AT LIVINGSTON AS OF 3 AM.
I SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE A SOME SHOWERS IN THE EAST AT SUNRISE...AND
PERHAPS FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE AFTERNOON
OUT EAST DUE TO INSTABILITY IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TODAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. AS
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TAKES PLACE. I DID BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS IN
THE PARADISE VALLEY AND LIVINGSTON AREAS THIS EVENING DUE TO LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING LATE TODAY.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WITH THIS PACKAGE IS TIMING OF TOMORROWS
PACIFIC FRONT. GFS AND NAM BRING IT THROUGH BILLINGS BEFORE 18Z
WITH THE EC AND GEM A LITTLE AFTER. AS MARGINAL AS THIS SEEMS IT
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AS WELL
AS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER. GFS IS
SHOWING SOMEWHAT OF A REBOUND EFFECT IN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH GENERAL DOWNSLOPE AND LITTLE
RAINFALL...IT APPEARS THE AIR MASS WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MILD TEMPS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS DESPITE A RELATIVELY EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE. INDICATIONS
ON SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER REMAINING PRIMARILY OVER OUR SOUTHERN BORDERS AND
SHERIDAN COUNTY. I DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY STABILIZES
AFTER 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT SO HAVE WITHDRAWN ALL POPS FOR LATE
NIGHT. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MILD PREFRONTAL SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY JUST AS WARM SUNDAY
AS ZONAL FLOW PUSHES A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BUT FRONT
WILL BE DRY. MONDAY FEATURES CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND REMAINING DRY.

MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE TUESDAY A LARGE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER WESTERN MONTANA. SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND MOISTURE DEEPENS UP AND PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING THE TROUGH TO SWING
THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF MONTANA WHICH IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
SOUTHERN MONTANA THAN HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. WHILE
MOUNTAINS DO STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOOK LESS CERTAIN AND WEDNESDAY EVEN HINTS AT DRY
SLOTTING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE REGION AND MODELS VARY ON HOW
MUCH OF A SURFACE LOW TO SPIN UP OVER THE DAKOTAS. DOES SUPPORT
UPSLOPE AND COOL WEATHER BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK AS
THREATENING WITH THE BULK OF THE SYSTEMS ENERGY STAYING FURTHER
NORTH. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS NEAR KLVM/KSHR/KBHK WILL
DISSIPATE BY 16-17Z THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
FAR SOUTHEAST MT TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE REGION. JKL
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 039/064 038/066 041/072 040/069 043/069 045/052
    0/B 14/W    30/B    00/U    00/B    23/T    45/W
LVM 059 039/062 034/066 039/068 038/066 041/065 039/052
    1/N 13/W    20/U    00/U    02/W    24/T    65/W
HDN 062 035/068 037/067 040/073 041/072 039/072 041/055
    1/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    35/W
MLS 060 035/066 037/065 040/072 041/070 041/070 043/058
    1/B 03/W    40/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    34/T
4BQ 060 034/071 037/066 041/073 040/073 042/072 044/062
    1/B 02/T    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    24/T
BHK 052 030/064 035/063 036/071 039/066 040/068 043/061
    2/W 02/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    24/T
SHR 058 036/070 036/064 037/070 038/069 040/071 042/058
    0/B 02/T    20/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    24/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170927
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
327 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SLIDING EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET
AND AN ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD. PRESSURE
RISES AND A STIFF EAST WIND HAVE ENDED AT LIVINGSTON AS OF 3 AM.
I SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE A SOME SHOWERS IN THE EAST AT SUNRISE...AND
PERHAPS FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE AFTERNOON
OUT EAST DUE TO INSTABILITY IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TODAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. AS
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TAKES PLACE. I DID BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS IN
THE PARADISE VALLEY AND LIVINGSTON AREAS THIS EVENING DUE TO LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING LATE TODAY.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WITH THIS PACKAGE IS TIMING OF TOMORROWS
PACIFIC FRONT. GFS AND NAM BRING IT THROUGH BILLINGS BEFORE 18Z
WITH THE EC AND GEM A LITTLE AFTER. AS MARGINAL AS THIS SEEMS IT
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AS WELL
AS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER. GFS IS
SHOWING SOMEWHAT OF A REBOUND EFFECT IN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH GENERAL DOWNSLOPE AND LITTLE
RAINFALL...IT APPEARS THE AIR MASS WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT MILD TEMPS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS DESPITE A RELATIVELY EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE. INDICATIONS
ON SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER REMAINING PRIMARILY OVER OUR SOUTHERN BORDERS AND
SHERIDAN COUNTY. I DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY STABILIZES
AFTER 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT SO HAVE WITHDRAWN ALL POPS FOR LATE
NIGHT. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MILD PREFRONTAL SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY JUST AS WARM SUNDAY
AS ZONAL FLOW PUSHES A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BUT FRONT
WILL BE DRY. MONDAY FEATURES CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND REMAINING DRY.

MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE TUESDAY A LARGE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER WESTERN MONTANA. SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND MOISTURE DEEPENS UP AND PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING THE TROUGH TO SWING
THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF MONTANA WHICH IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR
SOUTHERN MONTANA THAN HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. WHILE
MOUNTAINS DO STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOOK LESS CERTAIN AND WEDNESDAY EVEN HINTS AT DRY
SLOTTING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY MAIN TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE REGION AND MODELS VARY ON HOW
MUCH OF A SURFACE LOW TO SPIN UP OVER THE DAKOTAS. DOES SUPPORT
UPSLOPE AND COOL WEATHER BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK AS
THREATENING WITH THE BULK OF THE SYSTEMS ENERGY STAYING FURTHER
NORTH. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND UPSLOPE
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF STRATUS PRODUCING IFR
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND THIS WILL
BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. BY MIDDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 039/064 038/066 041/072 040/069 043/069 045/052
    0/E 14/W    30/B    00/U    00/B    23/T    45/W
LVM 059 039/062 034/066 039/068 038/066 041/065 039/052
    1/N 13/W    20/U    00/U    02/W    24/T    65/W
HDN 062 035/068 037/067 040/073 041/072 039/072 041/055
    1/E 04/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    35/W
MLS 060 035/066 037/065 040/072 041/070 041/070 043/058
    2/W 03/W    40/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    34/T
4BQ 060 034/071 037/066 041/073 040/073 042/072 044/062
    2/W 02/T    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    24/T
BHK 052 030/064 035/063 036/071 039/066 040/068 043/061
    2/W 02/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    24/T
SHR 058 036/070 036/064 037/070 038/069 040/071 042/058
    0/E 02/T    20/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    24/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170316
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
916 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE STILL AROUND IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND A JET MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN VERY PULSY AS THEY DIE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
DEVELOPMENT. ENOUGH REGENERATION THOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID BACK OFF ON THE
POPS SOME THIS EVENING AS AREAL COVERAGE WAS SCATTERED. CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY
RAIN SHOWERS OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. FORECAST LOWS LOOK GOOD AND
DID NOT CHANGE. ADJUSTED WINDS A BIT TO KEEP AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND IN A LITTLE LONGER. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LIFT
WILL BE PROVIDED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES/JET DYNAMICS AND 500 MB
VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BE OVER
THESE AREAS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. A FEW
ISOLATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES BUT ONLY
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL HEATING. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN IMPACTING OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF US BUT
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. STRONG
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
NAM12 IS BRINGING IN SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 500 J/KG ALONG WITH
LI`S OF A -2C ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN POWDER RIVER AND CARTER
COUNTIES. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS
BUFKIT SHOWING THESE AREAS TO BE CAPPED DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MAINLY DRY AND WARM
PERIOD SAT THROUGH MON AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL THEN APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUE AND ROTATE INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THE GFS HAS TRENDED N WITH THE UPPER
LOW...AND BY 00Z THU HAD IT OVER MT IN THE LATEST RUN. MEANWHILE
THE ECMWF TRENDED THE LOW NE INTO E MT AND DEEPENED IT BY 00Z THU.
THE NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION FOR BOTH MODELS SHOWED
CONFIDENCE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NEUTRAL WITH THE UPPER LOW
FORECAST FOR WED. BOTH MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
THE REGION...BUT THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEM WAS
UNCERTAIN. IN ADDITION...THE NAEFS TABLE SHOWED INCREASING
ANOMALIES OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM TUE THROUGH WED SUGGESTING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM.

PRECIPITATION WILL START MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES MON NIGHT
AND REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE W ON TUE. DID INCREASE POPS FROM KBIL W
ON TUE. MODELS AGREED IN SPREADING THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER E TUE
NIGHT SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
TRACK...MODELS HAD A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WED SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE
WARM SECTOR BASED ON THE GFS. DUE TO THE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
ON WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS RAIN ON
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK COULD CREATE FLOODING ISSUES. LATEST CIPS
ANALOGS SHOWED 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WITH SIMILAR
SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DO TAKE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WED. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TO VFR.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/061 039/065 040/066 041/072 040/069 043/069 045/052
    51/E    12/W    20/B    00/U    00/B    23/T    45/W
LVM 028/061 039/061 036/066 039/068 038/066 041/065 039/052
    41/N    23/W    20/U    00/U    02/W    24/T    45/W
HDN 028/061 034/066 037/067 040/073 041/072 039/072 041/055
    41/E    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    35/W
MLS 029/059 034/063 036/065 040/072 041/070 041/073 043/058
    33/W    12/W    30/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    34/T
4BQ 026/059 033/066 037/066 041/073 040/073 042/075 044/062
    22/W    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    24/T
BHK 026/052 029/058 033/063 036/071 039/069 040/071 043/061
    23/W    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    24/T
SHR 028/059 036/067 037/064 037/070 038/069 040/071 042/058
    51/E    12/W    20/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    24/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 162111
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
311 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LIFT
WILL BE PROVIDED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES/JET DYNAMICS AND 500 MB
VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER THE WEST AND
CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BE OVER
THESE AREAS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. A FEW
ISOLATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES BUT ONLY
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES TOMORROW BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL HEATING. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN IMPACTING OUR FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE MAIN LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF US BUT
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS OUR AREA. STRONG
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
NAM12 IS BRINGING IN SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 500 J/KG ALONG WITH
LI`S OF A -2C ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN POWDER RIVER AND CARTER
COUNTIES. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS
BUFKIT SHOWING THESE AREAS TO BE CAPPED DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS. RICHMOND


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MAINLY DRY AND WARM
PERIOD SAT THROUGH MON AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL THEN APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUE AND ROTATE INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THE GFS HAS TRENDED N WITH THE UPPER
LOW...AND BY 00Z THU HAD IT OVER MT IN THE LATEST RUN. MEANWHILE
THE ECMWF TRENDED THE LOW NE INTO E MT AND DEEPENED IT BY 00Z THU.
THE NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION FOR BOTH MODELS SHOWED
CONFIDENCE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NEUTRAL WITH THE UPPER LOW
FORECAST FOR WED. BOTH MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
THE REGION...BUT THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SYSTEM WAS
UNCERTAIN. IN ADDITION...THE NAEFS TABLE SHOWED INCREASING
ANOMALIES OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM TUE THROUGH WED SUGGESTING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM.

PRECIPITATION WILL START MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES MON NIGHT
AND REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE W ON TUE. DID INCREASE POPS FROM KBIL W
ON TUE. MODELS AGREED IN SPREADING THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER E TUE
NIGHT SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW
TRACK...MODELS HAD A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WED SO INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE
WARM SECTOR BASED ON THE GFS. DUE TO THE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
ON WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS RAIN ON
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK COULD CREATE FLOODING ISSUES. LATEST CIPS
ANALOGS SHOWED 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WITH SIMILAR
SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DO TAKE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WED. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FROM AROUND KBIL W THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E OF KBIL AND OVER KSHR. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E OF KBIL ON THU
WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/061 039/065 040/066 041/072 040/069 043/069 045/052
    61/E    12/W    20/B    00/U    00/B    23/T    45/W
LVM 028/061 039/061 036/066 039/068 038/066 041/065 039/052
    61/N    23/W    20/U    00/U    02/W    24/T    45/W
HDN 028/061 034/066 037/067 040/073 041/072 039/072 041/055
    61/E    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    35/W
MLS 029/059 034/063 036/065 040/072 041/070 041/073 043/058
    33/W    12/W    30/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    34/T
4BQ 026/059 033/066 037/066 041/073 040/073 042/075 044/062
    22/W    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    24/T
BHK 026/052 029/058 033/063 036/071 039/069 040/071 043/061
    23/W    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    24/T
SHR 028/059 036/067 037/064 037/070 038/069 040/071 042/058
    41/E    12/W    20/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    24/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 161530
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
930 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING MAINLY
TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERE WILL OCCUR TODAY. ALSO
INCREASED WINDS FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AS SURFACE GRADIENTS
WILL SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE TODAY AND NO CHANGES MADE TO
THE LIKELY POPS OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. BUFKIT
INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB AROUND 8
C/KM ALONG WITH SLIM CAPE. ADDITIONAL LEFT WILL COME FROM LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET ALONG WITH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING OVER THE
AREA. THE LIFT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ENHANCE OUR SHOWER CHANCES. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ALL NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-
BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE. GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
DOWNSLOPING THE BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN AREAS AS THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO THE WEST OF BILLINGS...AS WELL AS
ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY WHICH IS A FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA UNDER A
NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED WELL ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS SO PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS BUT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
LEAVING JUST THE FAR EASTERN AREAS TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY...BUT ARE
IN SOMEWHAT DISARRAY CONCERNING A POTENTIALLY POWERFUL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING FOR A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO TRACK SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY ENDING UP IN CANADA
IN THE EVENING. THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
JETLET WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG UPWARD FORCING. I
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN A VERY SPRING LIKE FASHION.
I DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION YET OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT SOME SREF MEMBERS DO SHOW SOME CAPE
DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. IF THE
TRACK TRENDS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL
CYCLES OF THE ECMWF WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO INCLUDE SOME THUNDER
IN OUR FORECASTS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BREEZY AND MILD PERIOD OF WEATHER OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE A POTENTIALLY
CRUCIAL TIME FRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD BE A
BIG RAIN PRODUCER. CURRENT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH AND COULD RESULT IN RAIN ON SOME HIGH
COUNTRY SNOWPACK...OR AT LEAST ON THE FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE...HYDRO
ISSUES MAY ENSUE WITH RISING WATER LEVELS ON RIVERS. WE WILL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION FOR NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TRACKS AND THE ECMWF DOES NOT CLOSE OFF THE SYSTEM
AT ANY POINT. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY W OF KMLS TO BROADUS TODAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. E OF THIS AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE GENERALLY OBSCURED. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM AROUND KBIL W THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS E OF KBIL AND OVER KSHR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 031/055 038/064 040/065 039/072 042/069 042/068
    6/W 61/E    12/W    20/B    00/U    00/B    12/W
LVM 045 028/056 036/061 036/063 041/068 041/066 040/066
    6/W 61/E    23/W    20/U    00/U    02/W    22/W
HDN 046 028/056 034/066 038/067 039/073 042/072 041/070
    7/W 61/E    12/B    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 045 029/054 033/061 037/065 040/072 039/070 043/071
    3/W 33/W    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
4BQ 045 026/053 030/066 038/066 041/073 042/073 042/074
    6/W 22/W    11/B    20/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
BHK 042 026/047 028/055 034/061 036/071 039/069 040/071
    3/W 23/W    22/N    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
SHR 045 028/056 034/066 038/064 038/070 040/069 038/070
    7/W 41/E    11/B    20/B    00/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 160926
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
326 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ENHANCE OUR SHOWER CHANCES. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ALL NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-
BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE. GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
DOWNSLOPING THE BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN AREAS AS THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO THE WEST OF BILLINGS...AS WELL AS
ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY WHICH IS A FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA UNDER A
NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED WELL ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS SO PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS BUT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
LEAVING JUST THE FAR EASTERN AREAS TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY...BUT ARE
IN SOMEWHAT DISARRAY CONCERNING A POTENTIALLY POWERFUL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING FOR A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO TRACK SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY ENDING UP IN CANADA
IN THE EVENING. THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
JETLET WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG UPWARD FORCING. I
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN A VERY SPRING LIKE FASHION.
I DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION YET OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT SOME SREF MEMBERS DO SHOW SOME CAPE
DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. IF THE
TRACK TRENDS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL
CYCLES OF THE ECMWF WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO INCLUDE SOME THUNDER
IN OUR FORECASTS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BREEZY AND MILD PERIOD OF WEATHER OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE A POTENTIALLY
CRUCIAL TIME FRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD BE A
BIG RAIN PRODUCER. CURRENT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH AND COULD RESULT IN RAIN ON SOME HIGH
COUNTRY SNOWPACK...OR AT LEAST ON THE FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE...HYDRO
ISSUES MAY ENSUE WITH RISING WATER LEVELS ON RIVERS. WE WILL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION FOR NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TRACKS AND THE ECMWF DOES NOT CLOSE OFF THE SYSTEM
AT ANY POINT. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ALONG
A KSHR TO K6SO LINE. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE AND MOUNTAINS
MAY BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 031/055 038/064 040/065 039/072 042/069 042/068
    6/W 61/E    12/W    20/B    00/U    00/B    12/W
LVM 041 028/056 036/061 036/063 041/068 041/066 040/066
    6/W 61/E    23/W    20/U    00/U    02/W    22/W
HDN 043 028/056 034/066 038/067 039/073 042/072 041/070
    7/W 61/E    12/B    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 044 029/054 033/061 037/065 040/072 039/070 043/071
    3/W 33/W    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
4BQ 043 026/053 030/066 038/066 041/073 042/073 042/074
    6/W 22/W    11/B    20/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
BHK 041 026/047 028/055 034/061 036/071 039/069 040/071
    3/W 23/W    22/N    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
SHR 044 028/056 034/066 038/064 038/070 040/069 038/070
    7/W 41/E    11/B    20/B    00/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 160306
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
906 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST POPS/TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE
ADJUSTED FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC LIFT A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THE
LATEST RUNS...TOWARD THE EARLIER GFS SOLUTION. THIS PUTS THE BEST
LIFT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN A BAND FROM
ROUNDUP TO NEAR BILLINGS TO NORTHEAST OF SHERIDAN WYOMING. THIS
SHIFT WESTWARD ALSO MEANS COLDER AIR WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST AS WELL. THIS LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
LIKELY RANGE AS OPPOSED TO CATEGORICAL FOR NOW. ALSO...EVEN WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PRETTY LOW FOR
THE PLAINS AS LOW SHOULD BOTTOM OUT WITHIN A 3 DEGREES OF FREEZING
IN MOST LOCATIONS. CAN`T RULE OUT HIGHER HILLS/FOOTHILLS OF
CENTRAL ZONES SEEING A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
SURFACES BUT OVERALL LESS THAN AN INCH SEEMS MOST LIKELY IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT UNTIL THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND STRONG JET MAX SUPPORTING A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY W TO NW WINDS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS TODAY AND A RAIN/SNOW
MIX THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION. AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS WORKS ITS WAY SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIP THAT
WILL BE ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHICS...SINCE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...SO
I BASICALLY BROADBRUSHED LIKELY POPS...WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP IN SOME AREAS WEST OF ROSEBUD
COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH REGARDS TO
THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR...MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER AT 850
MB...AND THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SHALLOWER UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS
IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY. STILL...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
INCHES ACCUMULATED ON GRASSY SURFACES IN FOOTHILLS REGIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THURSDAY...THE PUSH OF SW WINDS MOVES
EASTWARD...GENERATING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM. STC

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SHOWERS INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS BY MORNING...SPREADING
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING STRONG Q VECTOR FORCING PUSHING
THROUGH WITH STRONG JET DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY AND QPF TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURNING BY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING
ONTO THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY...SETTING UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
AIR ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
MONDAY. GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE EC BRINGS AN OPEN WAVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LAST TWO PERIODS
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING RAINS AND
SHOWERS TO ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS AT TIMES. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/043 029/055 036/063 040/063 042/071 043/068 044/068
    66/W    51/B    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 029/041 028/055 035/058 036/061 040/067 042/065 038/065
    55/W    51/B    23/W    20/U    00/U    01/B    22/W
HDN 032/043 028/056 034/066 039/064 040/072 041/070 042/069
    77/W    41/B    11/B    30/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 030/042 027/052 031/062 038/062 040/071 041/068 042/068
    63/W    33/W    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
4BQ 031/043 026/053 030/064 039/062 041/071 041/070 041/071
    66/W    32/W    11/B    30/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
BHK 026/038 024/045 027/056 034/057 035/069 038/066 039/068
    53/W    23/W    21/N    30/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 031/042 028/054 032/064 038/061 038/069 040/068 039/068
    77/W    41/B    11/B    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 152011
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
211 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND STRONG JET MAX SUPPORTING A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY W TO NW WINDS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS TODAY AND A RAIN/SNOW
MIX THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION. AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS WORKS ITS WAY SLOWLY
WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIP THAT
WILL BE ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHICS...SINCE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP...SO
I BASICALLY BROADBRUSHED LIKELY POPS...WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP IN SOME AREAS WEST OF ROSEBUD
COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH REGARDS TO
THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR...MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER AT 850
MB...AND THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SHALLOWER UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS
IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY. STILL...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
INCHES ACCUMULATED ON GRASSY SURFACES IN FOOTHILLS REGIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THURSDAY...THE PUSH OF SW WINDS MOVES
EASTWARD...GENERATING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM. STC

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE TROUGH WILL
BRING SHOWERS INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS BY MORNING...SPREADING
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING STRONG Q VECTOR FORCING PUSHING
THROUGH WITH STRONG JET DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY AND QPF TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURNING BY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING
ONTO THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY...SETTING UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
AIR ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
MONDAY. GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE THE EC BRINGS AN OPEN WAVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LAST TWO PERIODS
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING RAINS AND
SHOWERS TO ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME TO TURN TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/043 029/055 036/063 040/063 042/071 043/068 044/068
    66/W    51/B    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
LVM 031/041 028/055 035/058 036/061 040/067 042/065 038/065
    56/W    51/B    23/W    20/U    00/U    01/B    22/W
HDN 035/043 028/056 034/066 039/064 040/072 041/070 042/069
    66/W    41/B    11/B    30/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 033/042 027/052 031/062 038/062 040/071 041/068 042/068
    64/W    33/W    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
4BQ 034/043 026/053 030/064 039/062 041/071 041/070 041/071
    66/W    22/W    11/B    30/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
BHK 030/038 024/045 027/056 034/057 035/069 038/066 039/068
    54/W    23/W    21/N    30/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 032/042 028/054 032/064 038/061 038/069 040/068 039/068
    76/W    41/B    11/B    20/U    00/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 151555
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
955 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

SW WINDS ARE STILL QUITE STRONG IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO I
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THERE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. DYNAMICS/FORCING LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST...SO I INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES AND TWEAKED POTENTIAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
RACES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND
CLOUDINESS WILL CUT BACK ON SUBSTANTIAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO T-STORM CHANCES SEEM LOW. THEREFORE...LEFT T-STORMS OUT
OF THE FORECAST. ALL OTHER CHANGES WERE MINIMAL. STC

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT NOR CONSISTENT THIS MORNING WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS BRIEFLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SWEEPING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE LOW IS ALLOWING FOR PRESSURE FALLS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS. WINDS AT
LIVINGSTON BRIEFLY HIT A SUSTAINED 41 MPH LATE LAST EVENING BUT
HAVE SINCE STAYED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
STAY JUST WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL SLACKEN AND THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS SO BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SO PRECIP SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS TODAY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THEN NORTHERLY TONIGHT
BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW IS
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG NOR DEEP AS THE LAST SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND
SO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF QPF AND GIVEN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT ANY ACCUMULATIONS MINOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY BEFORE DROPPING WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE EXIT OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL GIVE THE MERCURY A NUDGE...BUT WE WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER MILD. FRIDAY WILL
INITIALLY SEE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BREAK DOWN AS A FAST MOVING
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LINE
OF SHOWERS THAT RACES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY AND MILD WITH RIDGING/ZONAL
FLOW DEPICTED BY PROGGS. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
YET BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING AND TROUGHING LOOK OUT OF SYNC...AND THE GFS IS HINTING AT
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMING NEXT WEEK TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE
THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH. SO NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...BUT WE SHOULD STAY MILD
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY. LOOK
FOR SW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH TO CONTINUE AT KLVM THROUGH
AT LEAST 21Z BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED AND POSSIBLY
BANDED AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
POSSIBLE. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057 033/042 028/050 033/063 038/063 038/070 042/069
    5/W 66/W    32/W    22/W    30/B    00/U    00/U
LVM 054 030/040 026/050 031/058 034/060 035/066 040/066
    7/W 67/W    32/W    13/W    20/U    00/U    01/B
HDN 060 033/041 025/052 032/066 036/064 037/072 039/070
    6/W 66/W    32/W    21/B    30/B    00/U    00/U
MLS 061 032/040 026/049 029/062 034/061 037/070 039/068
    2/W 64/W    33/W    21/B    30/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 060 033/041 024/050 029/064 034/062 036/070 038/069
    3/W 66/W    22/W    21/B    30/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 057 029/037 025/042 025/056 031/056 033/069 037/066
    1/N 44/W    23/W    21/B    30/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 058 033/041 027/050 028/064 033/061 035/069 038/068
    5/W 76/W    31/B    11/B    20/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 150917
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
317 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT NOR CONSISTENT THIS MORNING WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO QPF.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS BRIEFLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SWEEPING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE LOW IS ALLOWING FOR PRESSURE FALLS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS. WINDS AT
LIVINGSTON BRIEFLY HIT A SUSTAINED 41 MPH LATE LAST EVENING BUT
HAVE SINCE STAYED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
STAY JUST WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL SLACKEN AND THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS SO BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SO PRECIP SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN TODAY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THEN NORTHERLY TONIGHT
BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW IS
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG NOR DEEP AS THE LAST SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND
SO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON
AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF QPF AND GIVEN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT ANY ACCUMULATIONS MINOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY BEFORE DROPPING WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE EXIT OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL GIVE THE MERCURY A NUDGE...BUT WE WILL STILL
BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER MILD. FRIDAY WILL
INITIALLY SEE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BREAK DOWN AS A FAST MOVING
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LINE
OF SHOWERS THAT RACES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY AND MILD WITH RIDGING/ZONAL
FLOW DEPICTED BY PROGGS. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
YET BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING AND TROUGHING LOOK OUT OF SYNC...AND THE GFS IS HINTING AT
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMING NEXT WEEK TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE
THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH. SO NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT...BUT WE SHOULD STAY MILD
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY. LOOK
FOR SW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH TO CONTINUE AT KLVM THROUGH
AT LEAST 21Z BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT. SCATTERED AND POSSIBLY
BANDED AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
POSSIBLE. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057 033/042 028/050 033/063 038/063 038/070 042/069
    3/W 66/W    32/W    22/W    30/B    00/U    00/U
LVM 054 030/040 026/050 031/058 034/060 035/066 040/066
    6/W 67/W    32/W    13/W    20/U    00/U    01/B
HDN 060 033/041 025/052 032/066 036/064 037/072 039/070
    2/W 66/W    32/W    21/B    30/B    00/U    00/U
MLS 061 032/040 026/049 029/062 034/061 037/070 039/068
    2/W 64/W    33/W    21/B    30/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 060 033/041 024/050 029/064 034/062 036/070 038/069
    1/N 66/W    22/W    21/B    30/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 057 029/037 025/042 025/056 031/056 033/069 037/066
    1/B 44/W    23/W    21/B    30/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 058 033/041 027/050 028/064 033/061 035/069 038/068
    2/W 76/W    31/B    11/B    20/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
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