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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240907
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
307 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

CORE OF A 150 KT JET WILL PASS N OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED JET DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO REMAIN N OF THE AREA.
STREAMLINED VORTICITY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY WITH
SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL REACH THE SW MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN FRINGE OF ZONES THIS
MORNING...THEN PUSH N THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE REWORKED THE POPS A BIT TO HAVE LOW CHANCES
OVER THE W/NW...SHIFTING TO THE NW/N CENTRAL ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON BASED ON THE BEST LOCATIONS OF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/QPF. IN
ADDITION...SOME FRONTOGENESIS WILL LINGER OVER THESE AREAS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WAS FORECAST TO PUSH SE OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. MIXING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES.

THE MOISTURE WILL PUSH N OUT OF THE FAR NW ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. KEPT SOME LOW POPS MAINLY
IN THE EVENING OVER THE NW ZONES BASED ON THE DEPICTION OF
MOISTURE IN THE TIME-HEIGHTS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA ON SAT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS.
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SAT
NIGHT AND BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SW MOUNTAINS LATE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

A SERIES OF WAVES WILL WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAIRLY
FAST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SECOND WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH THE THIRD COMING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AS MOST OF THEM WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE OTHER IMPACT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE IS TO
DRIVE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.

THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THUS INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO WARRANT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE QUICK MOVING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SOMEWHAT BUT
COULD GET 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE PLAINS WILL PROBABLY COME ON MONDAY AS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE CRUISES THROUGH IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE. DID RAISE POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MAY HAVE TO GET MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS OVER TIME BUT
THE MODELS WERE STILL KEEPING THE PLAINS MAINLY PRECIPITATION
FREE.

THE THIRD SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST COLDEST OF THE THREE
BUT SHOULD GIVE THE MOUNTAINS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. RAISED POPS FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS TO END THE WEEK AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK UP TOWARD THE LOWER 60S AFTER A WEEK OF
SEASONAL VALUES. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LIVINGSTON WILL DECREASE EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REPLACE THE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO
BILLINGS TO MILES CITY LINE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 041/070 047/061 037/052 030/054 037/058 035/055
    0/B 00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    13/W    21/B
LVM 063 039/069 041/054 032/046 028/050 034/054 034/054
    2/W 10/N    13/W    33/W    11/B    23/W    22/W
HDN 069 037/073 039/064 035/053 029/055 033/059 033/056
    0/B 00/U    03/W    33/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 068 038/070 041/065 037/051 029/053 033/057 031/053
    0/B 00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 068 038/071 043/067 037/051 028/053 032/058 033/054
    0/B 00/U    02/W    42/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
BHK 067 034/065 038/065 036/048 025/047 029/054 029/049
    0/B 00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 064 037/073 041/066 032/050 025/053 029/059 029/055
    0/B 00/U    02/W    44/W    11/U    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240232
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS TO ADJUST FOR TIMING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE ALREADY THROUGH LIVINGSTON. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES.
REIMER/TESAR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A 170KT JET CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER WASHINGTON AND IDAHO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PROVIDING FOR LEE-
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS OUR LAST FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING NEARLY AS
STRONG OF WINDS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR
FAR WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
WHERE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR STRONG RIDGING TO BUILD BACK ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK AROUND 15-18C WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH MOVE INLAND AND AS FAR EAST AS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURNED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
BUMP UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TWO
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST ARRIVES SUNDAY...WITH TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SUFFER PRECIPITATION
WISE FROM A ZONAL DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE BEST LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS MAIN FORCING BANDS PUSH THROUGH. BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE THE CHANGE FROM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. THOSE
PLANNING HUNTING TRIPS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR CHANGING WEATHER AND WINTER CONDITIONS. WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW REGIME CONTINUING EXPECT PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS FOR
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAY CAUSE SOME OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...EXCEPT AT LIVINGSTON WHERE GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/065 041/069 047/061 037/054 031/056 037/058 036/057
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
LVM 044/061 039/068 041/055 032/048 028/054 034/054 034/055
    22/W    20/U    23/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    22/W
HDN 042/068 037/072 039/063 035/054 028/058 033/060 033/058
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 042/065 038/070 041/064 038/052 029/056 032/056 031/055
    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 042/068 038/070 043/067 037/052 028/055 032/058 034/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/U    12/W    22/W
BHK 040/064 034/065 038/065 037/050 026/050 029/054 028/050
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 041/065 037/073 041/066 033/052 025/057 028/060 030/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/B    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 240232
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS TO ADJUST FOR TIMING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE ALREADY THROUGH LIVINGSTON. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES.
REIMER/TESAR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A 170KT JET CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER WASHINGTON AND IDAHO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PROVIDING FOR LEE-
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS OUR LAST FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING NEARLY AS
STRONG OF WINDS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR
FAR WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
WHERE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR STRONG RIDGING TO BUILD BACK ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK AROUND 15-18C WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH MOVE INLAND AND AS FAR EAST AS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURNED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
BUMP UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TWO
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST ARRIVES SUNDAY...WITH TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SUFFER PRECIPITATION
WISE FROM A ZONAL DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE BEST LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS MAIN FORCING BANDS PUSH THROUGH. BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE THE CHANGE FROM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. THOSE
PLANNING HUNTING TRIPS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR CHANGING WEATHER AND WINTER CONDITIONS. WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW REGIME CONTINUING EXPECT PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS FOR
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAY CAUSE SOME OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...EXCEPT AT LIVINGSTON WHERE GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/065 041/069 047/061 037/054 031/056 037/058 036/057
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
LVM 044/061 039/068 041/055 032/048 028/054 034/054 034/055
    22/W    20/U    23/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    22/W
HDN 042/068 037/072 039/063 035/054 028/058 033/060 033/058
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 042/065 038/070 041/064 038/052 029/056 032/056 031/055
    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 042/068 038/070 043/067 037/052 028/055 032/058 034/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/U    12/W    22/W
BHK 040/064 034/065 038/065 037/050 026/050 029/054 028/050
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 041/065 037/073 041/066 033/052 025/057 028/060 030/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/B    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 232047
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

A 170KT JET CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER WASHINGTON AND IDAHO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PROVIDING FOR LEE-
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS OUR LAST FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING NEARLY AS
STRONG OF WINDS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SO
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR
FAR WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
WHERE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR STRONG RIDGING TO BUILD BACK ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK AROUND 15-18C WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH MOVE INLAND AND AS FAR EAST AS IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURNED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
BUMP UP POPS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TWO
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST ARRIVES SUNDAY...WITH TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OVERALL BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL SUFFER PRECIPITATION
WISE FROM A ZONAL DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE BEST LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS MAIN FORCING BANDS PUSH THROUGH. BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL BE THE CHANGE FROM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. THOSE
PLANNING HUNTING TRIPS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR CHANGING WEATHER AND WINTER CONDITIONS. WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW REGIME CONTINUING EXPECT PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS FOR
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS WITH
OCCASIONAL OBSCURATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INCLUDING THE KLVM
TAF SITE. HOWEVER WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT NEAR AND EAST OF ALL AREA
MOUNTAINS. THE KSHR TAF LOCATION COULD SEE SOME ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THIS MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.
CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/065 041/069 047/061 037/054 031/056 037/058 036/057
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
LVM 044/061 039/068 041/055 032/048 028/054 034/054 034/055
    22/W    20/U    23/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    22/W
HDN 042/068 037/072 039/063 035/054 028/058 033/060 033/058
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
MLS 042/065 038/070 041/064 038/052 029/056 032/056 031/055
    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 042/068 038/070 043/067 037/052 028/055 032/058 034/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/U    12/W    22/W
BHK 040/064 034/065 038/065 037/050 026/050 029/054 028/050
    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 041/065 037/073 041/066 033/052 025/057 028/060 030/056
    00/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    11/B    12/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 231529
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
929 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

STRONG JET STREAM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. STRONG WINDS AT
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL ARE RESULTING IN PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY GRIDS SOME
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING HAS KEPT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN STRONG WIND
GUSTS FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA. THIS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BY LATE
MORNING AND THIS IS ALREADY SHOWING AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED QUITE
A BIT ALREADY AT LIVINGSTON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPE FLOW
TODAY. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SOME OF THESE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSE TO 70
DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS...NO
OTHER UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

130 KT JET MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI. THE BULK OF THE JET DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
N OF THE AREA AS MODELS ALL KEEP THE JET CORE TO THE N.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FAST SW
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. PIECES OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FLOW WILL THEN BECOME
ZONAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA FRI NIGHT.

PLAN VIEW OF MOISTURE SHOWED SOME APPROACHING THE WESTERN ZONES
BY 00Z FRI. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS KEPT THE LOWER LEVELS DRY
SO THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER BUT NO PRECIPITATION
TODAY. LEE TROUGHING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PRE-FRONTAL
MIXING...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY...IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER.

PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGESTED THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND KLVM AREA AFTER 06Z.
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE W ON FRI THROUGH
FRI NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. FRI WILL
HAVE LESS WIND THAN TODAY WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA. A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRI BEHIND THE THU NIGHT COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A DRY AND MILD SATURDAY...
COURTESY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF PAC COAST TROF. A PATTERN
SHIFT TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC FLOW...AND THUS COOLER
TEMPS...WILL BEGIN SUNDAY. TIMING OF THE INITIAL WAVE AND COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO TREND A BIT SLOWER SO HAVE RAISED EXPECTED
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND PUSHED POPS BACK SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN
W/ THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS/EC
EACH HIT OUR SOUTH PARTS WITH GREATEST QPF PER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND AT LEAST BRIEFLY VEERED N-NW UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
HAVE RAISED POPS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GIVEN OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. SHOULD BE ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY SO HAVE SUSTAINED ISOLD TO SCT POPS HERE...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW/COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF. CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST BRIEF RIDGING FOR
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 50S FOR HIGHS MONDAY/
TUESDAY...ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT
BILLINGS HAS NOT SEEN A COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY SINCE OCTOBER 3RD.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A GREAT AMOUNT OF SPREAD INVOLVING THE FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS MODEL UNCERTAINTY MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE INVOLVEMENT
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. SO AM EXPECTING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD TO CONTINUE AS WE EASE
OURSELF INTO A PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE COMING DAYS. IN ANY
EVENT...WILL SUSTAIN NEAR CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY
AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC EACH SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY BY THEN...THOUGH
IN DIFFERING REGIMES. BY 168 HOURS THESE MODELS ARE COMPLETELY OUT
OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
EASTERN PACIFIC.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS WHICH INCLUDES KLVM...WILL GUST TO 45 KTS THIS
MORNING DROPPING TO AROUND 35KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25KTS
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 047/064 041/069 045/061 037/054 031/056 037/058
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
LVM 069 045/062 040/069 043/055 032/048 028/054 034/054
    0/N 22/W    20/U    13/W    32/W    11/B    22/W
HDN 073 042/068 037/072 039/063 035/054 028/058 033/060
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
MLS 073 043/067 039/070 042/064 038/052 029/056 032/056
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W
4BQ 072 042/068 038/070 043/067 037/052 028/055 032/058
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    42/W    11/U    12/W
BHK 070 041/066 034/065 039/065 037/050 026/050 029/054
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W
SHR 071 041/067 034/073 039/066 033/052 025/057 028/060
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    42/W    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230855
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
255 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

130 KT JET MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRI. THE BULK OF THE JET DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
N OF THE AREA AS MODELS ALL KEEP THE JET CORE TO THE N.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FAST SW
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. PIECES OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FLOW WILL THEN BECOME
ZONAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA FRI NIGHT.

PLAN VIEW OF MOISTURE SHOWED SOME APPROACHING THE WESTERN ZONES
BY 00Z FRI. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS KEPT THE LOWER LEVELS DRY
SO THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER BUT NO PRECIPITATION
TODAY. LEE TROUGHING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PRE-FRONTAL
MIXING...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY...IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER.

PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGESTED THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND KLVM AREA AFTER 06Z.
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE W ON FRI THROUGH
FRI NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. FRI WILL
HAVE LESS WIND THAN TODAY WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA. A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRI BEHIND THE THU NIGHT COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A DRY AND MILD SATURDAY...
COURTESY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF PAC COAST TROF. A PATTERN
SHIFT TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC FLOW...AND THUS COOLER
TEMPS...WILL BEGIN SUNDAY. TIMING OF THE INITIAL WAVE AND COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO TREND A BIT SLOWER SO HAVE RAISED EXPECTED
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND PUSHED POPS BACK SLIGHTLY. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN
W/ THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS/EC
EACH HIT OUR SOUTH PARTS WITH GREATEST QPF PER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND AT LEAST BRIEFLY VEERED N-NW UPSLOPE SFC WINDS.
HAVE RAISED POPS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GIVEN OUR
SOUTHERN MTNS A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL. SHOULD BE ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY SO HAVE SUSTAINED ISOLD TO SCT POPS HERE...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW/COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF. CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST BRIEF RIDGING FOR
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 50S FOR HIGHS MONDAY/
TUESDAY...ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT
BILLINGS HAS NOT SEEN A COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY SINCE OCTOBER 3RD.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A GREAT AMOUNT OF SPREAD INVOLVING THE FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. THIS MODEL UNCERTAINTY MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE INVOLVEMENT
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. SO AM EXPECTING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD TO CONTINUE AS WE EASE
OURSELF INTO A PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE COMING DAYS. IN ANY
EVENT...WILL SUSTAIN NEAR CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY
AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC EACH SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY BY THEN...THOUGH
IN DIFFERING REGIMES. BY 168 HOURS THESE MODELS ARE COMPLETELY OUT
OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER WITH THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
EASTERN PACIFIC.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUD FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE WINDY ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS AT KLVM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 047/064 041/069 045/061 037/054 031/056 037/058
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
LVM 069 045/062 040/069 043/055 032/048 028/054 034/054
    0/N 22/W    20/U    13/W    32/W    11/B    22/W
HDN 073 042/068 037/072 039/063 035/054 028/058 033/060
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
MLS 073 043/067 039/070 042/064 038/052 029/056 032/056
    0/U 00/B    10/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W
4BQ 072 042/068 038/070 043/067 037/052 028/055 032/058
    0/U 00/B    10/U    02/W    42/W    11/U    12/W
BHK 070 041/066 034/065 039/065 037/050 026/050 029/054
    0/U 00/B    10/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    12/W
SHR 071 041/067 034/073 039/066 033/052 025/057 028/060
    0/B 00/B    10/U    02/W    42/W    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 230249
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
849 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

TRENDS LOOKING GOOD OVERNIGHT...NO NEED FOR UPDATE. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT BLASTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MAINLY WIND LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED WELL EAST INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO OUR AREA
ON THURSDAY. BUT FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA ALLOWING FOR A LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA
BRINGING A RETURNED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 15-17C RANGE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE LACKING SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL DOWN FRIDAY BUT
READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MAIN TAKE AWAY FROM THE EXTENDED MODELS IS THAT THERE IS MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THIS RUN AND THAT THERE IS
DEFINITELY A PATTERN SHIFT IN PROGRESS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC AND MORE JET ENERGY BUILDING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHERE A RIDGE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE LATEST GFS RUN FLIP-FLOPPED OFF ITS PREVIOUS TROF FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME AND TRENDED TOWARD THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY HAS TRENDED SLOWER LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PROGRESSIVE TROF PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENERGY IS DIS-JOINTED AND A
DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE SO KEPT LOWER ELEVATION
LOW WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. HEIGHTS
INCREASE ON TUESDAY UNDER PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. JET STREAM OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL PUSH A GOOD DEAL OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AND CAP TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER AREA OF
WEAK ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SURGE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT. KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR THIS FEATURE AND
CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN LIMIT HEATING HOLDING TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FOR THE LATER EXTENDED THE GFS HAD DEVELOPED A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THE LATEST RUNS
HAVE FLOPPED TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THOSE HOPING FOR MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER...THE CFS LONG RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN
THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY AT LIVINGSTON WHERE GUSTS WILL STILL
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/070 048/064 042/070 043/059 036/054 032/056 040/058
    00/B    10/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    12/W
LVM 041/068 045/063 041/069 043/052 031/049 030/053 036/054
    00/N    11/N    10/U    13/W    32/W    11/U    22/W
HDN 038/073 043/070 038/072 040/062 035/055 029/058 036/060
    00/B    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    12/W
MLS 037/072 043/068 041/070 042/063 038/053 030/056 037/056
    00/U    00/B    00/B    02/W    21/N    11/U    12/W
4BQ 037/071 042/069 039/071 045/062 037/054 031/056 036/058
    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    12/W
BHK 035/070 041/067 037/065 040/061 036/051 028/051 035/054
    00/U    00/B    00/B    02/W    21/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 032/072 041/068 037/073 040/063 032/053 026/057 029/059
    00/B    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/U    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 222056
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT BLASTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MAINLY WIND LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED WELL EAST INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO OUR AREA
ON THURSDAY. BUT FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA ALLOWING FOR A LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA
BRINGING A RETURNED DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 15-17C RANGE.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE LACKING SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL DOWN FRIDAY BUT
READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MAIN TAKE AWAY FROM THE EXTENDED MODELS IS THAT THERE IS MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THIS RUN AND THAT THERE IS
DEFINITELY A PATTERN SHIFT IN PROGRESS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC AND MORE JET ENERGY BUILDING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHERE A RIDGE HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE LATEST GFS RUN FLIP-FLOPPED OFF ITS PREVIOUS TROF FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME AND TRENDED TOWARD THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY HAS TRENDED SLOWER LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PROGRESSIVE TROF PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENERGY IS DIS-JOINTED AND A
DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE SO KEPT LOWER ELEVATION
LOW WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. HEIGHTS
INCREASE ON TUESDAY UNDER PROGRESSIVE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. JET STREAM OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL PUSH A GOOD DEAL OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AND CAP TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER AREA OF
WEAK ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A SURGE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT. KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR THIS FEATURE AND
CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN LIMIT HEATING HOLDING TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

FOR THE LATER EXTENDED THE GFS HAD DEVELOPED A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THE LATEST RUNS
HAVE FLOPPED TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THOSE HOPING FOR MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER...THE CFS LONG RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET FOR MOST AREAS. WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT INCLUDING THE KLVM TAF SITE. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/070 048/064 042/070 043/059 036/054 032/056 040/058
    00/B    10/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    12/W
LVM 041/068 045/063 041/069 043/052 031/049 030/053 036/054
    00/N    11/N    10/U    13/W    32/W    11/U    22/W
HDN 038/073 043/070 038/072 040/062 035/055 029/058 036/060
    00/B    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    12/W
MLS 037/072 043/068 041/070 042/063 038/053 030/056 037/056
    00/U    00/B    00/B    02/W    21/N    11/U    12/W
4BQ 037/071 042/069 039/071 045/062 037/054 031/056 036/058
    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    12/W
BHK 035/070 041/067 037/065 040/061 036/051 028/051 035/054
    00/U    00/B    00/B    02/W    21/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 032/072 041/068 037/073 040/063 032/053 026/057 029/059
    00/B    00/B    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/U    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 221549
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
949 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT IS WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE DAY. A FEW
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS...BUT
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

OVERALL SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

TROF CROSSING THE REGION WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY. BEST ENERGY
AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROF...WHICH IS
WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP IN THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
TODAY...AS TROF PUSHES EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING/NIGHT...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMUP TO THE
AREA. THIS RIDGING DOES SLIP OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...ALLOWING A RETURN OF SHALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOWE TO THE
REGION BYT THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OPENS THE DOOR FOR
SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE TO REACH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FACING
SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH / ABSAROKEE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. DID INCREASE MOUNTAIN POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
KEPT ISOLATED DUE SHORT WINDOW FOR PRECIP AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIFT NORTH W/ MID LEVEL WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS AS
THIS OCCURS. OTHERWISE OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD
TURN A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY BEHIND WEAK FROPA...THEN SATURDAY
SHOULD TURN WARMER AGAIN AS OVERALL FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF PAC
COAST TROF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH OF
THESE DAYS...IE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN SHIFT IS IN STORE BEGINNING SUNDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED PAC
TROF IS KICKED THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COUPLE COOLER DAYS
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEAR IN STORE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW/COOLER AIR ALOFT...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ORGANIZATION WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH A LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS SHOULD SUFFICE
FOR THESE PERIODS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER OUR CWA NEXT
TUESDAY...SO AM COMFORTABLE KEEPING POPS A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR DAY 7. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL TO MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL...HIGHS SOMEWHERE NEAR 60F ON SUNDAY THEN IN THE 50S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

EVOLUTION OF FLOW IN THE PACIFIC IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS WE GET INTO
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE EASE OUR WAY
INTO A PATTERN SHIFT. TROF NEAR 35N 170E WILL INTERACT W/ TROPICAL
STORM ANA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
FLOW WILL APPROACH THE PAC COAST AND EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW WILDLY VARYING POSSIBILITIES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES...SO MUST STRESS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OUR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES HALLOWEEN.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 042/070 047/066 042/073 044/058 036/055 034/058
    1/U 00/B    10/B    00/U    12/W    22/W    11/B
LVM 061 039/067 043/065 041/072 041/055 031/052 030/055
    0/U 00/N    11/B    10/U    23/W    22/W    11/B
HDN 067 038/073 043/070 038/074 040/060 034/056 031/059
    1/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 065 037/072 043/068 041/070 042/062 034/054 030/056
    0/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 065 037/071 042/069 039/072 042/061 034/053 030/057
    1/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 062 035/070 040/067 037/066 041/060 033/050 028/054
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/W    11/B
SHR 065 034/072 040/071 036/076 038/060 031/053 025/058
    1/U 00/B    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 220906
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
306 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

OVERALL SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

TROF CROSSING THE REGION WILL COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BUT AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY. BEST ENERGY
AND INSTABILITY IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROF...WHICH IS
WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP IN THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA
TODAY...AS TROF PUSHES EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING/NIGHT...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMUP TO THE
AREA. THIS RIDGING DOES SLIP OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...ALLOWING A RETURN OF SHALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE
REGION BY THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OPENS THE DOOR FOR
SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE TO REACH WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FACING
SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH / ABSAROKEE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
DID INCREASE MOUNTAIN POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT
ISOLATED DUE SHORT WINDOW FOR PRECIP AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIFT NORTH W/ MID LEVEL WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS AS
THIS OCCURS. OTHERWISE OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD
TURN A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY BEHIND WEAK FROPA...THEN SATURDAY
SHOULD TURN WARMER AGAIN AS OVERALL FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF PAC
COAST TROF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH OF
THESE DAYS...IE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.

A PATTERN SHIFT IS IN STORE BEGINNING SUNDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED PAC
TROF IS KICKED THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COUPLE COOLER DAYS
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEAR IN STORE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW/COOLER AIR ALOFT...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ORGANIZATION WITH THESE
SHOWERS WITH A LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS SHOULD SUFFICE
FOR THESE PERIODS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER OUR CWA NEXT
TUESDAY...SO AM COMFORTABLE KEEPING POPS A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR DAY 7. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL TO MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL...HIGHS SOMEWHERE NEAR 60F ON SUNDAY THEN IN THE 50S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

EVOLUTION OF FLOW IN THE PACIFIC IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS WE GET INTO
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE EASE OUR WAY
INTO A PATTERN SHIFT. TROF NEAR 35N 170E WILL INTERACT W/ TROPICAL
STORM ANA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
FLOW WILL APPROACH THE PAC COAST AND EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW WILDLY VARYING POSSIBILITIES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES...SO MUST STRESS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OUR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES HALLOWEEN.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND TUESDAY EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY...WITH 15 TO 25 KT GUSTS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 042/070 047/066 042/073 044/058 036/055 034/058
    1/B 00/B    10/B    00/U    12/W    22/W    11/B
LVM 061 039/067 043/065 041/072 041/055 031/052 030/055
    1/B 00/N    11/B    10/U    23/W    22/W    11/B
HDN 067 038/073 043/070 038/074 040/060 034/056 031/059
    1/B 00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 065 037/072 043/068 041/070 042/062 034/054 030/056
    1/B 00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 065 037/071 042/069 039/072 042/061 034/053 030/057
    1/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 062 035/070 040/067 037/066 041/060 033/050 028/054
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/W    11/B
SHR 065 034/072 040/071 036/076 038/060 031/053 025/058
    1/B 00/B    00/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 220235
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
835 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH YELLOWSTONE COUNTY THIS HOUR WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES THROUGH THE
EVENING ADJUSTING FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PLACING HIGHEST POPS TO BILLINGS EAST. SOME LIGHTNING NOTED IN THE
EAST AND ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH REMAINDER OF EVENING
AS WELL. THAT SAID...I DO NOT EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO GET MORE
THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDRETHS AT BEST. BEST FORCING EXITS OUR
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD BE SUNNY BEHIND SYSTEM
FOR TOMORROW WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER MONTANA. STRONGEST
WINDS SO FAR THIS EVENING WERE IN LIVINGSTON AREA WITH A 57 MPH
GUST. BIG TIMBER AND REEDPOINT BOTH HAD 43 MPH GUSTS...LOGAN
AIRPORT HIT A 43 MPH GUST AS WELL WITH 46 RECORDED HERE AT OUR
OFFICE ON THE WESTSIDE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SURFACE OBS SHOWING THE COLD HAEV MOVED THROUGH LIVINGSTON WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR AS PRESSURE RISES ARE OBSERVED JUST WEST OF
BILLINGS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THRUST OF THE FRONT IS IN THE VICNITY
OF BOZEMAN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS GALLATIN COUNTY AND NORTHERN PARK COUNTY AND
ARE QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-
ROUNDUP LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING
AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
LOOK TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK AS WINDY AS LAST WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. 700MB WINDS ARE ONLY
25 TO 35 KTS TONIGHT THROUGHW WEDNESAY WITH 850MB WINDS 25 TO 35
KTS TONIGHT AND 20 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...GUSTS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH A FEW POSSIBLY CLOSE
TO 50 MPH.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY BUT STIL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND TROUGHINESS TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROS THE EAST. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOWING RIDGING TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS MONTANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
DURING THE AFTERNOON....HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BY THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA RESULTING IN LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COMBINED WITH A DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST ARE OF A MINOR NATURE. OVERALL A MORE PROGRESSIVE FALL
PATTERN IS STARTING TO DEVELOP PUSHING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA
EVERY FEW DAYS...THOUGH STILL NO STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON
THE HORIZON THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY HAS A DECENT MOISTURE FEED ASSOCIATED WITH
IT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY.
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING WEST
COAST TROF. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY BUT AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY APPROACHES WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PREVENT MORE THAN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THOUGH IT COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHERE STRONG PULSE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM
THE 70S SATURDAY TOWARD MORE SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROF
KICKS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS
ON TUESDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHES OVER THE AREA MID WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH LIVINGSTON...WHERE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...GUST 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BEFORE
DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 042/070 047/066 041/073 044/057 036/055 035/058
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B    11/B
LVM 040/061 039/067 043/065 041/072 041/055 031/053 032/055
    31/B    00/N    01/B    10/U    13/W    21/B    11/B
HDN 043/067 038/073 043/070 038/074 040/060 034/057 032/059
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B    11/B
MLS 045/065 037/072 043/069 041/070 042/062 033/054 031/056
    51/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B
4BQ 044/065 037/071 042/069 040/073 042/061 034/054 031/056
    41/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/U
BHK 044/062 035/070 040/067 038/067 041/059 032/050 029/052
    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/U
SHR 041/065 034/072 040/071 037/076 038/060 030/055 027/057
    21/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 212332
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
532 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING UVV
FIELDS FROM BILLINGS TO FOOTHILLS. LOWERED EVENING POPS HERE AND
RAISED THEM TO OUR EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE LOSES INFLUENCE. CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS SUPPORT THIS CHANGE AS WELL. ALSO EXPANDED EVENING
POPS FURTHER EAST AS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN WARM
SECTOR IN POWDER RIVER/CARTER COUNTIES. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SURFACE OBS SHOWING THE COLD HAEV MOVED THROUGH LIVINGSTON WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR AS PRESSURE RISES ARE OBSERVED JUST WEST OF
BILLINGS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THRUST OF THE FRONT IS IN THE VICNITY
OF BOZEMAN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS GALLATIN COUNTY AND NORTHERN PARK COUNTY AND
ARE QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-
ROUNDUP LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING
AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
LOOK TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK AS WINDY AS LAST WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. 700MB WINDS ARE ONLY
25 TO 35 KTS TONIGHT THROUGHW WEDNESAY WITH 850MB WINDS 25 TO 35
KTS TONIGHT AND 20 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...GUSTS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH A FEW POSSIBLY CLOSE
TO 50 MPH.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY BUT STIL ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND TROUGHINESS TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROS THE EAST. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOWING RIDGING TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS MONTANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
DURING THE AFTERNOON....HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BY THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA RESULTING IN LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COMBINED WITH A DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST ARE OF A MINOR NATURE. OVERALL A MORE PROGRESSIVE FALL
PATTERN IS STARTING TO DEVELOP PUSHING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA
EVERY FEW DAYS...THOUGH STILL NO STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON
THE HORIZON THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY HAS A DECENT MOISTURE FEED ASSOCIATED WITH
IT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY.
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING WEST
COAST TROF. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY BUT AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY APPROACHES WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PREVENT MORE THAN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THOUGH IT COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHERE STRONG PULSE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM
THE 70S SATURDAY TOWARD MORE SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROF
KICKS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS
ON TUESDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHES OVER THE AREA MID WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
30 TO 40KTS AT TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 042/070 047/066 041/073 044/057 036/055 035/058
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B    11/B
LVM 040/061 039/067 043/065 041/072 041/055 031/053 032/055
    31/B    00/N    01/B    10/U    13/W    21/B    11/B
HDN 043/067 038/073 043/070 038/074 040/060 034/057 032/059
    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B    11/B
MLS 045/065 037/072 043/069 041/070 042/062 033/054 031/056
    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B
4BQ 044/065 037/071 042/069 040/073 042/061 034/054 031/056
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/U
BHK 044/062 035/070 040/067 038/067 041/059 032/050 029/052
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/U
SHR 041/065 034/072 040/071 037/076 038/060 030/055 027/057
    21/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 212129
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
329 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS GALLATIN COUNTY AND NORTHERN PARK COUNTY
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND ARE QUICKLY MOVING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN- BILLINGS- ROUNDUP LINE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING AS BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. MAIN IMPACT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS WINDY AS LAST
WEEKS FRONTAL PASSAGE. 700MB WINDS ARE ONLY 25 TO 35 KTS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB WINDS 25 TO 35 KTS TONIGHT AND 20 TO
25 KTS WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 50
MPH.

THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ALLOW RIDGING TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON....HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
RESULTING IN LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AND A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COMBINED WITH A DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST ARE OF A MINOR NATURE. OVERALL A MORE PROGRESSIVE FALL
PATTERN IS STARTING TO DEVELOP PUSHING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA
EVERY FEW DAYS...THOUGH STILL NO STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON
THE HORIZON THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY HAS A DECENT MOISTURE FEED ASSOCIATED WITH
IT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...BUT DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY.
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING WEST
COAST TROF. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY BUT AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY APPROACHES WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PREVENT MORE THAN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THOUGH IT COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHERE STRONG PULSE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM
THE 70S SATURDAY TOWARD MORE SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROF
KICKS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS
ON TUESDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHES OVER THE AREA MID WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
30 TO 40KTS AT TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/065 042/070 047/066 041/073 044/057 036/055 035/058
    31/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    12/W    21/B    11/B
LVM 040/061 039/067 043/065 041/072 041/055 031/053 032/055
    51/B    00/N    01/B    10/U    13/W    21/B    11/B
HDN 043/067 038/073 043/070 038/074 040/060 034/057 032/059
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B    11/B
MLS 045/065 037/072 043/069 041/070 042/062 033/054 031/056
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B
4BQ 044/065 037/071 042/069 040/073 042/061 034/054 031/056
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/U
BHK 044/062 035/070 040/067 038/067 041/059 032/050 029/052
    21/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/U
SHR 041/065 034/072 040/071 037/076 038/060 030/055 027/057
    21/B    00/B    00/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





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