Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300226
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
826 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND MODELS INDICATE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT. NO UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. INHERITED
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND IN NEED OF ONLY LIMITED EDITS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY. POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TUESDAY WITH PRE
FRONTAL WARMING. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAYS DID...AND THE MAIN TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS FURTHER NORTH
THAN YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO WE CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT THE SHARP
COLD ADVECTION. THAT SAID...YESTERDAY WAS HIGHLY UNUSUAL AND
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SHAPE UP AS A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY ON ITS OWN MERITS. NAM SOUNDINGS DO MIX DOWN SOME
DECENT WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE EXPECT HUMIDITY READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE OUR
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT AND CLOSELY MONITOR TUESDAY
PARAMETERS. AS FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...AGAIN THE MID
LEVEL WIND PROGGS ARE NOTHING LIKE YESTERDAY...SO JUST A TYPICALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MORE TYPICAL AND NOT WORTHY OF HIGH WIND CONSIDERATION AT
THIS TIME. BT




.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LONG TERM PROGGS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT OVERALL A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT MESSAGE. TROUGH EXITING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
WILL LEAVE A COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER BROADER
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...THEN WE SEE SOME RIDGE BUILDING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER EXTENDED PERIOD FOR
US...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS FAR AS WE CAN TELL AT
THIS POINT. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/072 046/077 041/056 033/050 031/054 032/057 036/060
    00/B    01/N    32/W    12/W    22/W    10/U    11/B
LVM 039/070 043/073 035/049 026/046 025/050 028/052 030/054
    00/B    03/T    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
HDN 037/074 039/080 040/059 031/053 028/057 029/059 034/062
    00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    10/U    11/B
MLS 040/070 040/080 041/057 031/051 029/055 030/058 033/061
    00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    12/W    11/U    11/B
4BQ 038/070 039/081 039/058 030/051 027/053 028/058 032/063
    00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    12/W    10/U    01/U
BHK 036/066 037/078 038/056 029/048 025/052 027/055 030/059
    00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    12/W    11/U    00/B
SHR 036/069 037/077 037/053 028/048 026/050 025/055 032/060
    00/B    01/B    23/W    13/W    22/W    10/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300226
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
826 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND MODELS INDICATE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT. NO UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. INHERITED
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND IN NEED OF ONLY LIMITED EDITS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY. POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TUESDAY WITH PRE
FRONTAL WARMING. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAYS DID...AND THE MAIN TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS FURTHER NORTH
THAN YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO WE CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT THE SHARP
COLD ADVECTION. THAT SAID...YESTERDAY WAS HIGHLY UNUSUAL AND
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SHAPE UP AS A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY ON ITS OWN MERITS. NAM SOUNDINGS DO MIX DOWN SOME
DECENT WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE EXPECT HUMIDITY READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE OUR
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT AND CLOSELY MONITOR TUESDAY
PARAMETERS. AS FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...AGAIN THE MID
LEVEL WIND PROGGS ARE NOTHING LIKE YESTERDAY...SO JUST A TYPICALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MORE TYPICAL AND NOT WORTHY OF HIGH WIND CONSIDERATION AT
THIS TIME. BT




.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LONG TERM PROGGS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT OVERALL A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT MESSAGE. TROUGH EXITING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
WILL LEAVE A COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER BROADER
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...THEN WE SEE SOME RIDGE BUILDING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER EXTENDED PERIOD FOR
US...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS FAR AS WE CAN TELL AT
THIS POINT. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/072 046/077 041/056 033/050 031/054 032/057 036/060
    00/B    01/N    32/W    12/W    22/W    10/U    11/B
LVM 039/070 043/073 035/049 026/046 025/050 028/052 030/054
    00/B    03/T    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
HDN 037/074 039/080 040/059 031/053 028/057 029/059 034/062
    00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    10/U    11/B
MLS 040/070 040/080 041/057 031/051 029/055 030/058 033/061
    00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    12/W    11/U    11/B
4BQ 038/070 039/081 039/058 030/051 027/053 028/058 032/063
    00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    12/W    10/U    01/U
BHK 036/066 037/078 038/056 029/048 025/052 027/055 030/059
    00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    12/W    11/U    00/B
SHR 036/069 037/077 037/053 028/048 026/050 025/055 032/060
    00/B    01/B    23/W    13/W    22/W    10/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300226
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
826 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND MODELS INDICATE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT. NO UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. INHERITED
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND IN NEED OF ONLY LIMITED EDITS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY. POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TUESDAY WITH PRE
FRONTAL WARMING. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAYS DID...AND THE MAIN TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS FURTHER NORTH
THAN YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO WE CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT THE SHARP
COLD ADVECTION. THAT SAID...YESTERDAY WAS HIGHLY UNUSUAL AND
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SHAPE UP AS A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY ON ITS OWN MERITS. NAM SOUNDINGS DO MIX DOWN SOME
DECENT WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE EXPECT HUMIDITY READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE OUR
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT AND CLOSELY MONITOR TUESDAY
PARAMETERS. AS FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...AGAIN THE MID
LEVEL WIND PROGGS ARE NOTHING LIKE YESTERDAY...SO JUST A TYPICALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MORE TYPICAL AND NOT WORTHY OF HIGH WIND CONSIDERATION AT
THIS TIME. BT




.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LONG TERM PROGGS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT OVERALL A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT MESSAGE. TROUGH EXITING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
WILL LEAVE A COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER BROADER
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...THEN WE SEE SOME RIDGE BUILDING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER EXTENDED PERIOD FOR
US...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS FAR AS WE CAN TELL AT
THIS POINT. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/072 046/077 041/056 033/050 031/054 032/057 036/060
    00/B    01/N    32/W    12/W    22/W    10/U    11/B
LVM 039/070 043/073 035/049 026/046 025/050 028/052 030/054
    00/B    03/T    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
HDN 037/074 039/080 040/059 031/053 028/057 029/059 034/062
    00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    10/U    11/B
MLS 040/070 040/080 041/057 031/051 029/055 030/058 033/061
    00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    12/W    11/U    11/B
4BQ 038/070 039/081 039/058 030/051 027/053 028/058 032/063
    00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    12/W    10/U    01/U
BHK 036/066 037/078 038/056 029/048 025/052 027/055 030/059
    00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    12/W    11/U    00/B
SHR 036/069 037/077 037/053 028/048 026/050 025/055 032/060
    00/B    01/B    23/W    13/W    22/W    10/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300226
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
826 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND MODELS INDICATE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT. NO UPDATES. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. INHERITED
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND IN NEED OF ONLY LIMITED EDITS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY. POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TUESDAY WITH PRE
FRONTAL WARMING. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAYS DID...AND THE MAIN TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS FURTHER NORTH
THAN YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO WE CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT THE SHARP
COLD ADVECTION. THAT SAID...YESTERDAY WAS HIGHLY UNUSUAL AND
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SHAPE UP AS A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY ON ITS OWN MERITS. NAM SOUNDINGS DO MIX DOWN SOME
DECENT WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE EXPECT HUMIDITY READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE OUR
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT AND CLOSELY MONITOR TUESDAY
PARAMETERS. AS FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...AGAIN THE MID
LEVEL WIND PROGGS ARE NOTHING LIKE YESTERDAY...SO JUST A TYPICALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MORE TYPICAL AND NOT WORTHY OF HIGH WIND CONSIDERATION AT
THIS TIME. BT




.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LONG TERM PROGGS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT OVERALL A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT MESSAGE. TROUGH EXITING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
WILL LEAVE A COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER BROADER
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...THEN WE SEE SOME RIDGE BUILDING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER EXTENDED PERIOD FOR
US...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS FAR AS WE CAN TELL AT
THIS POINT. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/072 046/077 041/056 033/050 031/054 032/057 036/060
    00/B    01/N    32/W    12/W    22/W    10/U    11/B
LVM 039/070 043/073 035/049 026/046 025/050 028/052 030/054
    00/B    03/T    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
HDN 037/074 039/080 040/059 031/053 028/057 029/059 034/062
    00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    10/U    11/B
MLS 040/070 040/080 041/057 031/051 029/055 030/058 033/061
    00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    12/W    11/U    11/B
4BQ 038/070 039/081 039/058 030/051 027/053 028/058 032/063
    00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    12/W    10/U    01/U
BHK 036/066 037/078 038/056 029/048 025/052 027/055 030/059
    00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    12/W    11/U    00/B
SHR 036/069 037/077 037/053 028/048 026/050 025/055 032/060
    00/B    01/B    23/W    13/W    22/W    10/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292101
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
301 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. INHERITED
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND IN NEED OF ONLY LIMITED EDITS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY. POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TUESDAY WITH PRE
FRONTAL WARMING. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAYS DID...AND THE MAIN TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS FURTHER NORTH
THAN YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO WE CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT THE SHARP
COLD ADVECTION. THAT SAID...YESTERDAY WAS HIGHLY UNUSUAL AND
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SHAPE UP AS A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY ON ITS OWN MERITS. NAM SOUNDINGS DO MIX DOWN SOME
DECENT WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE EXPECT HUMIDITY READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE OUR
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT AND CLOSELY MONITOR TUESDAY
PARAMETERS. AS FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...AGAIN THE MID
LEVEL WIND PROGGS ARE NOTHING LIKE YESTERDAY...SO JUST A TYPICALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MORE TYPICAL AND NOT WORTHY OF HIGH WIND CONSIDERATION AT
THIS TIME. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LONG TERM PROGGS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT OVERALL A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT MESSAGE. TROUGH EXITING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
WILL LEAVE A COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER BROADER
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...THEN WE SEE SOME RIDGE BUILDING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER EXTENDED PERIOD FOR
US...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS FAR AS WE CAN TELL AT
THIS POINT. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/073 045/077 041/053 033/048 030/051 032/057 036/059
    00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    11/B    11/B
LVM 038/071 042/072 033/046 026/044 025/047 027/052 032/052
    00/B    02/W    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
HDN 037/075 039/080 041/055 033/049 030/052 031/059 035/062
    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B    11/B
MLS 039/071 041/079 043/055 033/047 030/051 032/058 036/062
    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 036/072 039/080 041/055 032/048 029/050 030/058 035/063
    00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B    11/B
BHK 035/068 038/077 040/053 031/045 027/048 030/055 034/060
    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 034/070 037/078 037/050 030/045 027/047 028/055 032/059
    00/B    01/B    23/W    23/W    22/W    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 292101
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
301 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. INHERITED
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND IN NEED OF ONLY LIMITED EDITS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY. POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TUESDAY WITH PRE
FRONTAL WARMING. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY. LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAYS DID...AND THE MAIN TRACK OF THE TROUGH IS FURTHER NORTH
THAN YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO WE CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT THE SHARP
COLD ADVECTION. THAT SAID...YESTERDAY WAS HIGHLY UNUSUAL AND
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SHAPE UP AS A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY ON ITS OWN MERITS. NAM SOUNDINGS DO MIX DOWN SOME
DECENT WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE EXPECT HUMIDITY READINGS TO
BOTTOM OUT AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE OUR
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT AND CLOSELY MONITOR TUESDAY
PARAMETERS. AS FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY...AGAIN THE MID
LEVEL WIND PROGGS ARE NOTHING LIKE YESTERDAY...SO JUST A TYPICALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MORE TYPICAL AND NOT WORTHY OF HIGH WIND CONSIDERATION AT
THIS TIME. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

LONG TERM PROGGS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT OVERALL A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT MESSAGE. TROUGH EXITING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
WILL LEAVE A COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER BROADER
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THURSDAY...THEN WE SEE SOME RIDGE BUILDING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED AND COOLER EXTENDED PERIOD FOR
US...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS FAR AS WE CAN TELL AT
THIS POINT. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/073 045/077 041/053 033/048 030/051 032/057 036/059
    00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    11/B    11/B
LVM 038/071 042/072 033/046 026/044 025/047 027/052 032/052
    00/B    02/W    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B    12/W
HDN 037/075 039/080 041/055 033/049 030/052 031/059 035/062
    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B    11/B
MLS 039/071 041/079 043/055 033/047 030/051 032/058 036/062
    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 036/072 039/080 041/055 032/048 029/050 030/058 035/063
    00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B    11/B
BHK 035/068 038/077 040/053 031/045 027/048 030/055 034/060
    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 034/070 037/078 037/050 030/045 027/047 028/055 032/059
    00/B    01/B    23/W    23/W    22/W    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291505
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
905 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO THE WIND AND SKY TODAY. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING REMOTELY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND YESTERDAYS EVENT. PIECES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL TOP THE RIDGE AT TIMES BRINGING WITH THEM SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AS FOR REMAINING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MAX IN THE 60S AND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. RAISED BOTH
TODAYS AND MONDAYS TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES AS WE CONTINUE TO
OVERACHIEVE IN THESE DRY AIRMASSES. IN CASE YOU FORGOT...NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY LOWER 50S...SO STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS BUT SOME MIXED OUT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING MAX HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
LOW...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LONG TERM. GIVEN HOW TEMPERATURES
RESPONDED WITH THE FRONT TODAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE GFS IS TRACKING THE LOW
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS RUN...AND AS SUCH...IS NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN WINDS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN PRESSURE RISES. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO HAVE SIMILARITIES TO THE FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH SATURDAY...IT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS STRONG...THOUGH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ARE POSSIBLE. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 042/073 045/077 041/053 033/048 030/051 032/057
    0/U 00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
LVM 064 038/071 042/072 033/046 026/044 025/047 027/052
    0/N 00/B    02/W    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B
HDN 069 037/075 039/080 041/055 033/049 030/052 031/059
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 066 039/071 041/079 043/055 033/047 030/051 032/058
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B
4BQ 066 036/072 039/080 041/055 032/048 029/050 030/058
    0/U 00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 061 035/068 038/077 040/053 031/045 027/048 030/055
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B
SHR 063 034/070 037/078 037/050 030/045 027/047 028/055
    0/U 00/B    01/B    23/W    23/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291505
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
905 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO THE WIND AND SKY TODAY. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING REMOTELY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND YESTERDAYS EVENT. PIECES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL TOP THE RIDGE AT TIMES BRINGING WITH THEM SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AS FOR REMAINING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MAX IN THE 60S AND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. RAISED BOTH
TODAYS AND MONDAYS TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES AS WE CONTINUE TO
OVERACHIEVE IN THESE DRY AIRMASSES. IN CASE YOU FORGOT...NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY LOWER 50S...SO STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS BUT SOME MIXED OUT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING MAX HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
LOW...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LONG TERM. GIVEN HOW TEMPERATURES
RESPONDED WITH THE FRONT TODAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE GFS IS TRACKING THE LOW
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS RUN...AND AS SUCH...IS NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN WINDS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN PRESSURE RISES. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO HAVE SIMILARITIES TO THE FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH SATURDAY...IT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS STRONG...THOUGH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ARE POSSIBLE. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 042/073 045/077 041/053 033/048 030/051 032/057
    0/U 00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
LVM 064 038/071 042/072 033/046 026/044 025/047 027/052
    0/N 00/B    02/W    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B
HDN 069 037/075 039/080 041/055 033/049 030/052 031/059
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 066 039/071 041/079 043/055 033/047 030/051 032/058
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B
4BQ 066 036/072 039/080 041/055 032/048 029/050 030/058
    0/U 00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 061 035/068 038/077 040/053 031/045 027/048 030/055
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B
SHR 063 034/070 037/078 037/050 030/045 027/047 028/055
    0/U 00/B    01/B    23/W    23/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 291505
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
905 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...JUST
SOME TWEAKS TO THE WIND AND SKY TODAY. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING REMOTELY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAY. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND YESTERDAYS EVENT. PIECES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL TOP THE RIDGE AT TIMES BRINGING WITH THEM SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AS FOR REMAINING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MAX IN THE 60S AND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. RAISED BOTH
TODAYS AND MONDAYS TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES AS WE CONTINUE TO
OVERACHIEVE IN THESE DRY AIRMASSES. IN CASE YOU FORGOT...NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY LOWER 50S...SO STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS BUT SOME MIXED OUT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING MAX HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
LOW...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LONG TERM. GIVEN HOW TEMPERATURES
RESPONDED WITH THE FRONT TODAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE GFS IS TRACKING THE LOW
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS RUN...AND AS SUCH...IS NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN WINDS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN PRESSURE RISES. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO HAVE SIMILARITIES TO THE FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH SATURDAY...IT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS STRONG...THOUGH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ARE POSSIBLE. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 042/073 045/077 041/053 033/048 030/051 032/057
    0/U 00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
LVM 064 038/071 042/072 033/046 026/044 025/047 027/052
    0/N 00/B    02/W    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B
HDN 069 037/075 039/080 041/055 033/049 030/052 031/059
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 066 039/071 041/079 043/055 033/047 030/051 032/058
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B
4BQ 066 036/072 039/080 041/055 032/048 029/050 030/058
    0/U 00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 061 035/068 038/077 040/053 031/045 027/048 030/055
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B
SHR 063 034/070 037/078 037/050 030/045 027/047 028/055
    0/U 00/B    01/B    23/W    23/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND YESTERDAYS EVENT. PIECES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL TOP THE RIDGE AT TIMES BRINGING WITH THEM SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AS FOR REMAINING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MAX IN THE 60S AND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. RAISED BOTH
TODAYS AND MONDAYS TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES AS WE CONTINUE TO
OVERACHIEVE IN THESE DRY AIRMASSES. IN CASE YOU FORGOT...NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY LOWER 50S...SO STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS BUT SOME MIXED OUT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING MAX HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
LOW...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LONG TERM. GIVEN HOW TEMPERATURES
RESPONDED WITH THE FRONT TODAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE GFS IS TRACKING THE LOW
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS RUN...AND AS SUCH...IS NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN WINDS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN PRESSURE RISES. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO HAVE SIMILARITIES TO THE FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH SATURDAY...IT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS STRONG...THOUGH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY SOUTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS UNTIL MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO
20 KNOTS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 042/073 045/077 041/053 033/048 030/051 032/057
    0/U 00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
LVM 064 038/071 042/072 033/046 026/044 025/047 027/052
    0/U 00/B    02/W    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B
HDN 069 037/075 039/080 041/055 033/049 030/052 031/059
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 066 039/071 041/079 043/055 033/047 030/051 032/058
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B
4BQ 066 036/072 039/080 041/055 032/048 029/050 030/058
    0/U 00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 061 035/068 038/077 040/053 031/045 027/048 030/055
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B
SHR 063 034/070 037/078 037/050 030/045 027/047 028/055
    0/U 00/B    01/B    23/W    23/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND YESTERDAYS EVENT. PIECES OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL TOP THE RIDGE AT TIMES BRINGING WITH THEM SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AS FOR REMAINING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MAX IN THE 60S AND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. RAISED BOTH
TODAYS AND MONDAYS TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES AS WE CONTINUE TO
OVERACHIEVE IN THESE DRY AIRMASSES. IN CASE YOU FORGOT...NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY LOWER 50S...SO STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE THE NEXT TWO
DAYS BUT SOME MIXED OUT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING MAX HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
LOW...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LONG TERM. GIVEN HOW TEMPERATURES
RESPONDED WITH THE FRONT TODAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE GFS IS TRACKING THE LOW
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS RUN...AND AS SUCH...IS NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN WINDS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN PRESSURE RISES. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO HAVE SIMILARITIES TO THE FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH SATURDAY...IT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS STRONG...THOUGH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY SOUTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS UNTIL MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO
20 KNOTS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 042/073 045/077 041/053 033/048 030/051 032/057
    0/U 00/B    01/B    32/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
LVM 064 038/071 042/072 033/046 026/044 025/047 027/052
    0/U 00/B    02/W    33/W    23/W    32/W    11/B
HDN 069 037/075 039/080 041/055 033/049 030/052 031/059
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 066 039/071 041/079 043/055 033/047 030/051 032/058
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B
4BQ 066 036/072 039/080 041/055 032/048 029/050 030/058
    0/U 00/B    00/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 061 035/068 038/077 040/053 031/045 027/048 030/055
    0/U 00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    21/B    11/B
SHR 063 034/070 037/078 037/050 030/045 027/047 028/055
    0/U 00/B    01/B    23/W    23/W    22/W    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290353
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
953 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE DECREASING AS WEAK VERTICAL MOTIONS MOVES IN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA AND LOW LEVEL COOLING ALLOWS WEAK INVERSION TO
WEAKEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT WITH CERTAINLY LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY. ALLOWED
RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AND CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. HUMIDITY
RECOVER WILL BE ONLY MODERATE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT
WITH LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPDATE SENT. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK WITH FRONT IN WEST...BUT SOME
MARGINAL CAPE IN EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG NORTHERN CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTY LINES. CONVECTIVE RELATED
GUSTS COULD HIT 60-70 MPH LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED 30 TO
NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN POST FRONTAL
AREAS. SHARP TEMPERATURE DROPS BEHIND FRONT 10-15 DEGREES. WE WILL
TRY TO KEEP UP WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS REPORTS AS WE GET
THEM...AND SUMMARIZE SOMETHING THIS EVENING AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS REGION...WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A DROP
IN WINDS BY 03-06Z. WINDS MAY HANG ON LONGER IN THE FAR EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY OUR HIGH WIND WARNING THERE WHICH GOES UNTIL 3 AM.

MODEST RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK WAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO GENERATE MUCH MORE
THAN SOME CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH NOTHING LIKE TODAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD A BIT MONDAY FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY.
BT



.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE MONDAY LINGERS
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY
EVENING. CERTAINLY SOME SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH POTENTIALLY A BIT
MORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS THE TRAJECTORY IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY OF CONCERN. THE TUESDAY EVENING SYSTEM OPENS THE DOOR
FOR A CHANGE TO A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN. THIS BRINGS IN A
COOLER AND UNSETTLED REGIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...BUT
A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS LOOKING PROMISING FOR AT LEAST SOME
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE...BUT ARE TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OVER SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS NORTH OF
BILLINGS. AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS...INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK MAY SEE
A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/066 042/071 045/072 041/055 033/050 030/053 033/058
    10/B    00/B    01/B    32/W    22/W    22/W    21/B
LVM 035/063 038/069 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049 028/053
    10/U    00/B    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W    21/B
HDN 037/068 037/073 039/076 040/057 032/052 029/054 032/059
    10/U    00/B    01/B    32/W    23/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 038/065 039/069 041/076 042/057 033/050 030/053 033/060
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 037/065 036/070 039/077 040/056 032/050 028/052 029/061
    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 035/060 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049 030/057
    30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
SHR 037/062 034/068 037/075 036/051 028/048 026/050 028/057
    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    23/W    22/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290353
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
953 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE DECREASING AS WEAK VERTICAL MOTIONS MOVES IN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA AND LOW LEVEL COOLING ALLOWS WEAK INVERSION TO
WEAKEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT WITH CERTAINLY LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY. ALLOWED
RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AND CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. HUMIDITY
RECOVER WILL BE ONLY MODERATE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT
WITH LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPDATE SENT. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK WITH FRONT IN WEST...BUT SOME
MARGINAL CAPE IN EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG NORTHERN CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTY LINES. CONVECTIVE RELATED
GUSTS COULD HIT 60-70 MPH LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED 30 TO
NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN POST FRONTAL
AREAS. SHARP TEMPERATURE DROPS BEHIND FRONT 10-15 DEGREES. WE WILL
TRY TO KEEP UP WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS REPORTS AS WE GET
THEM...AND SUMMARIZE SOMETHING THIS EVENING AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS REGION...WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A DROP
IN WINDS BY 03-06Z. WINDS MAY HANG ON LONGER IN THE FAR EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY OUR HIGH WIND WARNING THERE WHICH GOES UNTIL 3 AM.

MODEST RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK WAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO GENERATE MUCH MORE
THAN SOME CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH NOTHING LIKE TODAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD A BIT MONDAY FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY.
BT



.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE MONDAY LINGERS
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY
EVENING. CERTAINLY SOME SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH POTENTIALLY A BIT
MORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS THE TRAJECTORY IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY OF CONCERN. THE TUESDAY EVENING SYSTEM OPENS THE DOOR
FOR A CHANGE TO A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN. THIS BRINGS IN A
COOLER AND UNSETTLED REGIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...BUT
A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS LOOKING PROMISING FOR AT LEAST SOME
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE...BUT ARE TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OVER SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS NORTH OF
BILLINGS. AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS...INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK MAY SEE
A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/066 042/071 045/072 041/055 033/050 030/053 033/058
    10/B    00/B    01/B    32/W    22/W    22/W    21/B
LVM 035/063 038/069 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049 028/053
    10/U    00/B    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W    21/B
HDN 037/068 037/073 039/076 040/057 032/052 029/054 032/059
    10/U    00/B    01/B    32/W    23/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 038/065 039/069 041/076 042/057 033/050 030/053 033/060
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 037/065 036/070 039/077 040/056 032/050 028/052 029/061
    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 035/060 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049 030/057
    30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
SHR 037/062 034/068 037/075 036/051 028/048 026/050 028/057
    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    23/W    22/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290353
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
953 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE DECREASING AS WEAK VERTICAL MOTIONS MOVES IN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA AND LOW LEVEL COOLING ALLOWS WEAK INVERSION TO
WEAKEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT WITH CERTAINLY LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY. ALLOWED
RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AND CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. HUMIDITY
RECOVER WILL BE ONLY MODERATE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT
WITH LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPDATE SENT. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK WITH FRONT IN WEST...BUT SOME
MARGINAL CAPE IN EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG NORTHERN CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTY LINES. CONVECTIVE RELATED
GUSTS COULD HIT 60-70 MPH LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED 30 TO
NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN POST FRONTAL
AREAS. SHARP TEMPERATURE DROPS BEHIND FRONT 10-15 DEGREES. WE WILL
TRY TO KEEP UP WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS REPORTS AS WE GET
THEM...AND SUMMARIZE SOMETHING THIS EVENING AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS REGION...WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A DROP
IN WINDS BY 03-06Z. WINDS MAY HANG ON LONGER IN THE FAR EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY OUR HIGH WIND WARNING THERE WHICH GOES UNTIL 3 AM.

MODEST RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK WAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO GENERATE MUCH MORE
THAN SOME CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH NOTHING LIKE TODAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD A BIT MONDAY FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY.
BT



.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE MONDAY LINGERS
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY
EVENING. CERTAINLY SOME SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH POTENTIALLY A BIT
MORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS THE TRAJECTORY IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY OF CONCERN. THE TUESDAY EVENING SYSTEM OPENS THE DOOR
FOR A CHANGE TO A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN. THIS BRINGS IN A
COOLER AND UNSETTLED REGIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...BUT
A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS LOOKING PROMISING FOR AT LEAST SOME
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE...BUT ARE TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OVER SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS NORTH OF
BILLINGS. AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS...INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK MAY SEE
A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/066 042/071 045/072 041/055 033/050 030/053 033/058
    10/B    00/B    01/B    32/W    22/W    22/W    21/B
LVM 035/063 038/069 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049 028/053
    10/U    00/B    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W    21/B
HDN 037/068 037/073 039/076 040/057 032/052 029/054 032/059
    10/U    00/B    01/B    32/W    23/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 038/065 039/069 041/076 042/057 033/050 030/053 033/060
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 037/065 036/070 039/077 040/056 032/050 028/052 029/061
    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 035/060 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049 030/057
    30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
SHR 037/062 034/068 037/075 036/051 028/048 026/050 028/057
    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    23/W    22/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290353
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
953 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE DECREASING AS WEAK VERTICAL MOTIONS MOVES IN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA AND LOW LEVEL COOLING ALLOWS WEAK INVERSION TO
WEAKEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT WITH CERTAINLY LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY. ALLOWED
RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AND CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. HUMIDITY
RECOVER WILL BE ONLY MODERATE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT
WITH LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPDATE SENT. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK WITH FRONT IN WEST...BUT SOME
MARGINAL CAPE IN EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG NORTHERN CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTY LINES. CONVECTIVE RELATED
GUSTS COULD HIT 60-70 MPH LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED 30 TO
NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN POST FRONTAL
AREAS. SHARP TEMPERATURE DROPS BEHIND FRONT 10-15 DEGREES. WE WILL
TRY TO KEEP UP WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS REPORTS AS WE GET
THEM...AND SUMMARIZE SOMETHING THIS EVENING AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS REGION...WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A DROP
IN WINDS BY 03-06Z. WINDS MAY HANG ON LONGER IN THE FAR EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY OUR HIGH WIND WARNING THERE WHICH GOES UNTIL 3 AM.

MODEST RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK WAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO GENERATE MUCH MORE
THAN SOME CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH NOTHING LIKE TODAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD A BIT MONDAY FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY.
BT



.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE MONDAY LINGERS
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY
EVENING. CERTAINLY SOME SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH POTENTIALLY A BIT
MORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS THE TRAJECTORY IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY OF CONCERN. THE TUESDAY EVENING SYSTEM OPENS THE DOOR
FOR A CHANGE TO A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN. THIS BRINGS IN A
COOLER AND UNSETTLED REGIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...BUT
A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS LOOKING PROMISING FOR AT LEAST SOME
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE...BUT ARE TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OVER SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS NORTH OF
BILLINGS. AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS...INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK MAY SEE
A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/066 042/071 045/072 041/055 033/050 030/053 033/058
    10/B    00/B    01/B    32/W    22/W    22/W    21/B
LVM 035/063 038/069 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049 028/053
    10/U    00/B    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W    21/B
HDN 037/068 037/073 039/076 040/057 032/052 029/054 032/059
    10/U    00/B    01/B    32/W    23/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 038/065 039/069 041/076 042/057 033/050 030/053 033/060
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 037/065 036/070 039/077 040/056 032/050 028/052 029/061
    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 035/060 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049 030/057
    30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
SHR 037/062 034/068 037/075 036/051 028/048 026/050 028/057
    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    23/W    22/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282032
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
232 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK WITH FRONT IN WEST...BUT SOME
MARGINAL CAPE IN EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG NORTHERN CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTY LINES. CONVECTIVE RELATED
GUSTS COULD HIT 60-70 MPH LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED 30 TO
NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 50-60 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN POST FRONTAL
AREAS. SHARP TEMPERATURE DROPS BEHIND FRONT 15-20 DEGREES. WE
WILL TRY TO KEEP UP WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS REPORTS AS WE GET
THEM...AND SUMMARIZE SOMETHING THIS EVENING AS WELL.

NO CHANGES TO RED FLAG OR HIGH WIND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. VERY
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO WIND. FIRES NEAR RED
LODGE AND COLUMBUS THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
MORE. MEDIA PARTNERS...PLEASE REMIND FOLKS TO USE EXTREME CAUTION.
LIVES AND PROPERTY AT STAKE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS REGION...WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A DROP
IN WINDS BY 03-06Z. WINDS MAY HANG ON LONGER IN THE FAR EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY OUR HIGH WIND WARNING THERE WHICH GOES UNTIL 3 AM.

MODEST RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK WAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO GENERATE MUCH MORE
THAN SOME CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH NOTHING LIKE TODAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD A BIT MONDAY FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE MONDAY LINGERS
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY
EVENING. CERTAINLY SOME SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH POTENTIALLY A BIT
MORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS THE TRAJECTORY IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY OF CONCERN. THE TUESDAY EVENING SYSTEM OPENS THE DOOR
FOR A CHANGE TO A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN. THIS BRINGS IN A
COOLER AND UNSETTLED REGIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...BUT
A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS LOOKING PROMISING FOR AT LEAST SOME
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
INTO LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRENDING LOWER OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF
30 TO 45KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH AN OCCASIONAL AREA OF HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR
CEILINGS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/066 042/071 045/072 041/055 033/050 030/053 033/058
    10/B    00/B    01/B    32/W    22/W    22/W    21/B
LVM 035/063 038/069 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049 028/053
    10/U    00/B    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W    21/B
HDN 037/068 037/073 039/076 040/057 032/052 029/054 032/059
    10/U    00/B    01/B    32/W    23/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 038/065 039/069 041/076 042/057 033/050 030/053 033/060
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 037/065 036/070 039/077 040/056 032/050 028/052 029/061
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 035/060 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049 030/057
    30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
SHR 037/062 034/068 037/075 036/051 028/048 026/050 028/057
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    23/W    22/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW
      7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW
      7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
      ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281444
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR
AROUND 18-19Z AT LIVINGSTON...AND AROUND 20-21Z AT BILLINGS
ACCORDING TO ALL THE MOST RECENT DATA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED JUST FINE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE..BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MILES
CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60
KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER EAST OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281444
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR
AROUND 18-19Z AT LIVINGSTON...AND AROUND 20-21Z AT BILLINGS
ACCORDING TO ALL THE MOST RECENT DATA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED JUST FINE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE..BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MILES
CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60
KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER EAST OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281444
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR
AROUND 18-19Z AT LIVINGSTON...AND AROUND 20-21Z AT BILLINGS
ACCORDING TO ALL THE MOST RECENT DATA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED JUST FINE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE..BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MILES
CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60
KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER EAST OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281444
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR
AROUND 18-19Z AT LIVINGSTON...AND AROUND 20-21Z AT BILLINGS
ACCORDING TO ALL THE MOST RECENT DATA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED JUST FINE. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE..BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MILES
CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60
KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER EAST OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280857
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
257 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH MILES CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER
EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280857
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
257 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH MILES CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER
EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280244
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD
FOR A FEW HOURS. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL HELP THE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S BUT WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO
DOWNSLOPE LATER WHICH WILL SLOW THE COOLING. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A
VERY WINDY DAY FOR THE REGION AND IN PARTICULAR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA. ITS ABOUT AS WARM AND DRY AS IT CAN GET FOR MARCH
AND THESE WINDS ARE GOING TO SUPPORT CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. THE RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON
UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND LET THE MIDNIGHT
CREW GET A LOOK AT THE DATA BECAUSE THE AREA OF CONCERN COULD
EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. WE TRUST THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE A VERY
WINDY ACTIVE DAY IS WELL KNOWN AND WILL NOT SURPRISE TO MANY
PEOPLE TOMORROW. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SW FROM KBIL W BY 12Z SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS KLVM BEFORE 18Z SAT AND WILL REACH KBIL BY 21Z. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KMLS AROUND 22Z AND KSHR AROUND 23Z.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE WSW AND WILL GUST INTO THE 25 TO
35 KT RANGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W OR NW
WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON SAT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280244
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
844 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD
FOR A FEW HOURS. CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL HELP THE
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S BUT WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO
DOWNSLOPE LATER WHICH WILL SLOW THE COOLING. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A
VERY WINDY DAY FOR THE REGION AND IN PARTICULAR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA. ITS ABOUT AS WARM AND DRY AS IT CAN GET FOR MARCH
AND THESE WINDS ARE GOING TO SUPPORT CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. THE RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON
UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND LET THE MIDNIGHT
CREW GET A LOOK AT THE DATA BECAUSE THE AREA OF CONCERN COULD
EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. WE TRUST THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE A VERY
WINDY ACTIVE DAY IS WELL KNOWN AND WILL NOT SURPRISE TO MANY
PEOPLE TOMORROW. BT


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SW FROM KBIL W BY 12Z SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS KLVM BEFORE 18Z SAT AND WILL REACH KBIL BY 21Z. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KMLS AROUND 22Z AND KSHR AROUND 23Z.
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE WSW AND WILL GUST INTO THE 25 TO
35 KT RANGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W OR NW
WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON SAT. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272044
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE
THE WATCHES /FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND/ WE INHERITED FOR TOMORROW.
WE ACTUALLY ALREADY UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT TROUGH COMING ACROSS MONTANA TOMORROW. FRONTAL TIMING AND
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAVE BEEN IN QUESTION UP TO THIS
POINT...AND STILL ARE SOMEWHAT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER
BRINGING THE FRONT IN SLOWER AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHARPLY ACROSS
OUR REGION AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER NORTH LIKE THE GFS. THE LATEST
ECMWF SCENARIO THOUGH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES AS
THIS IMPLIES LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE FRONT REACHING US
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AROUND 3 PM FOR BILLINGS/ BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING REACHES PEAK DESTABILIZATION...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER
IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY IN OUR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT WITH
EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIMITED CAPE I WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER TO THE FAR BORDER LOCATIONS.

RED FLAG WARNING...STILL SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
HAVE CHANCE TO BOTTOM OUT DUE TO EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND UNUSUALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IT STILL SEEMS PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO THE RED FLAG.

HIGH WIND WATCH...700-850MB WINDS TRENDED DOWN ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS. WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE CURRENT PROGGS WHICH DONT
JUMP OUT AT US...PARTICULARLY 850MB WINDS NOT REACHING THE 50 KTS
WE LIKE TO SEE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THAT
SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE A CONCERN AS THEY INDICATE A DEEPLY
MIXED LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE DO FEEL
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER WILL HIT THEIR HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AS THE
PATTERN FAVORS HYBRID EVENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS. AFTER REVIEWING
EVERYTHING...AND IN AN EFFORT TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS SIMPLE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RUN FOR NOW AS IT ALLOWS
PUBLIC AWARENESS WITHOUT TYING OUR HANDS WITH MARGINAL WARNINGS.
WE PLAN TO VISIT THE HIGH WIND WATCH AGAIN AS WE SEE THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES SO TO SPEAK. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE QUICK
MOVING SUNDAY TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER POTENT TROF ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A TON OF PRECIPITATION OR COLD AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...IT DOES START A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF ONE OF THESE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS CAN DIG A BIT DEEPER AND GENERATE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST A CHANCE AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/072 040/066 042/071 046/071 040/057 035/052 031/054
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 046/064 035/063 039/068 042/066 035/051 027/048 024/050
    03/W    10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    43/W
HDN 046/076 037/068 037/072 040/075 038/060 032/053 029/055
    02/W    20/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 045/076 037/066 039/069 043/075 040/058 033/052 030/054
    03/W    30/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 043/079 036/066 037/070 040/077 038/058 031/052 027/053
    02/W    40/B    00/B    11/B    21/N    22/W    33/W
BHK 041/074 035/061 035/066 038/073 038/056 029/050 026/052
    02/T    40/B    00/B    01/B    21/N    21/B    22/W
SHR 043/077 036/063 035/068 039/074 035/054 028/049 026/052
    01/N    20/B    00/U    03/W    22/W    23/W    44/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
      BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271507
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IN OUR
FORECAST PROCESS TODAY WILL BE ON TOMORROW WITH WINDY TROUGH
PASSAGE. WE WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT POTENTIALLY UPGRADING
OUR FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 071 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 065 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 071 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271507
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IN OUR
FORECAST PROCESS TODAY WILL BE ON TOMORROW WITH WINDY TROUGH
PASSAGE. WE WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT POTENTIALLY UPGRADING
OUR FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 071 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 065 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 071 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271507
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IN OUR
FORECAST PROCESS TODAY WILL BE ON TOMORROW WITH WINDY TROUGH
PASSAGE. WE WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT POTENTIALLY UPGRADING
OUR FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 071 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 065 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 071 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONCENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 070 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 064 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 070 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONCENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 070 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 064 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 070 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONCENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 070 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 064 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 070 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS





000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONCENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 070 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 064 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 070 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities