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000
FXUS62 KCAE 231535
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1035 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE SHEAR
SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM
DISPLAYS JUST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND
11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE 6 PM TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN
THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS
IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1015 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE SHEAR
SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM
DISPLAYS JUST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM.
SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM
TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA DURING THE 23Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1015 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM LI PATTERN SUPPORTS THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD HELP HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT WITH A LACK
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE SHEAR
SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LITTLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM
DISPLAYS JUST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED LI/S -1 TO -2 IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM.
SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM
TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA DURING THE 23Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231416
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
916 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE
NC COAST AND RIDGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS LIFT
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA. THIS IS QUITE A
BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO
CREATE AND MAINTAIN THE WEDGE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OBS INDICATE NE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HOWEVER...VWP
SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL HOLD IN FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM
PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA DURING THE 23Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231416
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
916 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE
NC COAST AND RIDGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS LIFT
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA. THIS IS QUITE A
BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO
CREATE AND MAINTAIN THE WEDGE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OBS INDICATE NE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HOWEVER...VWP
SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL HOLD IN FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM
PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA DURING THE 23Z TO 04Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VERY STRONG AND SOME OF THIS WIND MAY
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OR WITH ANY
OTHER STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE NAM AND 88D VAD WIND
PROFILES WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MAY OCCUR IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231243
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
743 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE
NC COAST AND RIDGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS LIFT
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA. THIS IS QUITE A
BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO
CREATE AND MAINTAIN THE WEDGE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OBS INDICATE NE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HOWEVER...VWP
SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL HOLD IN FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM
PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.

SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND
VSBYS BECAUSE OF RAIN AND BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME
LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
CROSS THE AREA 23Z-02Z AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231243
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
743 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE
NC COAST AND RIDGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS LIFT
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THESE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA. THIS IS QUITE A
BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO
CREATE AND MAINTAIN THE WEDGE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OBS INDICATE NE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HOWEVER...VWP
SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL HOLD IN FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION.

TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A
SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM
PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MID/UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY.
WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS
THE CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THERE WILL LIKELY BY A CHILLY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.

SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND
VSBYS BECAUSE OF RAIN AND BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME
LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO
CROSS THE AREA 23Z-02Z AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC INTO NC. EXPECT
PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE NC COAST AND RIDGE
BACK INTO THE PALMETTO STATE. MODELS LIFT THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN
INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE ARE OF RAIN ACROSS GA INTO
SC AND PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO NC THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT
RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 INCHES ACROSS
THE CSRA TO JUST OVER 1.0 INCH ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THESE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES
APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN
CWA. THIS IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE
NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES.
CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO CREATE AND MAINTAIN WEAK WEDGE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT OBS AND VWP. OBS
INDICATE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
HOWEVER...VWP SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SURFACE
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE
THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THE
MID/UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT S/W DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY. WILL
BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING
LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND
BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z-02Z AND
HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 231152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
652 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC INTO NC. EXPECT
PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE NC COAST AND RIDGE
BACK INTO THE PALMETTO STATE. MODELS LIFT THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN
INVERTED TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE ARE OF RAIN ACROSS GA INTO
SC AND PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO NC THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT
RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 INCHES ACROSS
THE CSRA TO JUST OVER 1.0 INCH ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THESE
VALUES WILL CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES
APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN
CWA. THIS IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE
NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES.
CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING TO CREATE AND MAINTAIN WEAK WEDGE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT OBS AND VWP. OBS
INDICATE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
HOWEVER...VWP SHOWS ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SURFACE
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE
THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THE
MID/UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT S/W DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY. WILL
BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING
LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE HAS RESULTED IN
DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND
BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 23Z-02Z AND
HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 230936
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC INTO NC. EXPECT PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO
OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED S/W MOVING ACROSS ERN TX
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REGION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO TRY AND HOLD ON ALONG THE NC COAST AND RIDGE BACK
INTO THE PALMETTO STATE. MODELS LIFT THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS AN INVERTED
TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

88D REGIONAL SHOWS A LARGE ARE OF RAIN ACROSS GA INTO SC AND
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO NC THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT RAIN/SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PW VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4 INCHES ACROSS THE CSRA
TO 0.75 INCHES ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VALUES APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA. THIS IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. CURRENT RAINFALL HELPING
TO SETUP WEAK WEDGE AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT OBS AND VWP. OBS
INDICATE NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
HOWEVER...VWP SHOWS SE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 1K FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. OBSERVING MODEL LI FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE WEDGE WILL
HOLD IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT QUITE A GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
CWA. HAVE GONE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EXTREME SRN CSRA
REGION. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...SURFACE
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
APPROACHES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BACKED OFF THE SEVERE
THREAT SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE COAST AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. THE BEST TIME FRAME
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
6 PM AND 11 PM. SPC WRM SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE 6 PM TO 11 PM PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER SPREADING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...DO NO EXPECT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY MAY RISE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THE
MID/UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO NEXT S/W DIGGING SEWD
INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THEM TO QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. IT WILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND FOR THE DAY. WILL
BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT LINGER NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SHOWERS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z/06Z NAM IS STILL
THE FARTHEST EWD OF THE SYSTEMS BY TUE NIGHT/WED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE
TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230731
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC. EXPECT PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
88D REGIONAL SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PALMETTO STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP THE VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE HRRR MODEL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS THE RAIN
FILLS IN ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AIRMASS BECOMES NEARLY
SATURATED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OUT AND BE SLOW TO MOVE
UPWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230731
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO THE AREA AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GA/SC. EXPECT PLENTY OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
88D REGIONAL SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PALMETTO STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP THE VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE HRRR MODEL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AS THE RAIN
FILLS IN ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AIRMASS BECOMES NEARLY
SATURATED...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OUT AND BE SLOW TO MOVE
UPWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230554
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230554
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THICKENING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR BY
12Z AGS/DNL AND CAE/CUB/OGB BY 15Z...WITH LIFR BECOMING POSSIBLE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 230336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 230336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH FURTHER OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS FILLING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY
TOWARDS MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 222351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE
START OFF DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 222351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE
START OFF DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...SO HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED ON
THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL FOG IN THE EAST... WITH
THE LARGEST IMPACT ON OGB. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW HOWEVER THERE SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS THAT FOG WILL FORM AROUND 06Z AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO THE
COLUMBIA AREA BY 09Z.

STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN INTO
MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN DETERIORATING
THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR BECOMING
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE CEILINGS
MAY RECOVER AND SHOWERS BECOME LIGHT. HOWEVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE POSSIBLY ALLOWING
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO FORM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE
NORTHWARDS OUT OF SOUTHERN GA...MAINLY JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CSRA. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE MOISTURE RETURN. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN NC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AGAIN.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA
LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
IN CONTROL OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER
TONIGHT...TOWARDS 06Z AT AGS/DNL...AND TOWARDS 12Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB.
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A
WEAK SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN
INTO MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN
DETERIORATING THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR
BECOMING POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE
NORTHWARDS OUT OF SOUTHERN GA...MAINLY JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CSRA. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE MOISTURE RETURN. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN NC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE COAST. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AGAIN.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. VERY WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA
LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST GFS/PREVIOUS ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS WELL AS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. DRY WEATHER THANKSGIVING
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY 12Z.

VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
IN CONTROL OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER
TONIGHT...TOWARDS 06Z AT AGS/DNL...AND TOWARDS 12Z AT CAE/CUB/OGB.
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GET LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER A
WEAK SURFACE WEDGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN
INTO MVFR/IFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. RAINFALL WILL AID IN
DETERIORATING THE CONDITIONS EVEN MORE TOWARDS MORNING...WITH LIFR
BECOMING POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY..WV LOOP SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA/NERN
NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARDS 18Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS MAY ENTER THE CSRA TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY..WV LOOP SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA/NERN
NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARDS 18Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS MAY ENTER THE CSRA TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 221542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY..WV LOOP SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA/NERN
NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARDS 18Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS MAY ENTER THE CSRA TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 221542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY..WV LOOP SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX. AT THE
SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN VA/NERN
NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WE START OFF
DRY...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA/CSRA LATE
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
TOWARDS MORNING. WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN CWA AS THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY
ON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DROPOFF AFTER SUNSET. THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STEADY TOWARDS
MORNING. FOR NOW...LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND AROUND 40
ACROSS THE NORTH STILL REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BY SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WELL ABOVE 1.5
INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0 INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE PALMETTO STATE
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TO
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NWD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARDS 18Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
RESTRICTIONS MAY ENTER THE CSRA TAF SITES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221144
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX.
AT THE SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN
VA/NERN NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...S/W ACROSS NM/TX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. BY
SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH THIS
EVENING TO WELL ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0
INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE
PALMETTO STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
IN THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE
VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY
WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR
SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NWD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 15Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221144
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX.
AT THE SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN
VA/NERN NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...S/W ACROSS NM/TX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. BY
SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH THIS
EVENING TO WELL ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0
INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE
PALMETTO STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
IN THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE
VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY
WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR
SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NWD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 15Z AND SHIFT
MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220946
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
446 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX.
AT THE SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN
VA/NERN NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...S/W ACROSS NM/TX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. BY
SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH THIS
EVENING TO WELL ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0
INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE
PALMETTO STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
IN THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE
VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY
WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR
SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NWD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A
BIT AFTER 15Z AND SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. WILL CARRY
A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBYS AT AGS 07Z-11Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 220946
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
446 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX.
AT THE SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN
VA/NERN NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...S/W ACROSS NM/TX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. BY
SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH THIS
EVENING TO WELL ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0
INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE
PALMETTO STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
IN THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE
VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY
WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR
SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NWD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A
BIT AFTER 15Z AND SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. WILL CARRY
A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBYS AT AGS 07Z-11Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220946
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
446 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX.
AT THE SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN
VA/NERN NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...S/W ACROSS NM/TX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. BY
SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH THIS
EVENING TO WELL ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0
INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE
PALMETTO STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
IN THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE
VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY
WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR
SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NWD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A
BIT AFTER 15Z AND SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. WILL CARRY
A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBYS AT AGS 07Z-11Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220946
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
446 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PLENTY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING S/W ACROSS NM/W TX.
AT THE SURFACE...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ERN
VA/NERN NC WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...S/W ACROSS NM/TX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BEGINS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE NC/VA COAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. BY
SUNDAY...S/W WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TRY AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKING A MODEL LI FIELDS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK SURFACE RIDING AND SFC WINDS FROM THE NE/E FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INDICATES AT LEAST SOME WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE NRN CSRA. WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN WEDGE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE AND S AS 50
TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES. PW VALUES WILL RISE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH THIS
EVENING TO WELL ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...APPROACHING NEARLY 2.0
INCHES...BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. WITH SUCH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX...THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM
FRONT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA SOUTH OF I-20. SPC DAY TWO HAS THE SERN HALF OF THE
PALMETTO STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
WHERE THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING FIRST IN THE SERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
IN THE PLAINS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND WILL
LIKELY SLOW/STALL ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR NEAR THE COAST. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUE TO KEEP A CHANE OF
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE VICINITY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE
VERY TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH WEDGE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM
THE SOUTH. HAVE STAYED WELL BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY
WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE. THE HIGH FOR
SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES NWD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER ON
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD AS ENERGY DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. BY TUE NIGHT...BOTH
MODELS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRING A SYSTEM UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAN 12Z/18Z RUNS. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASE POPS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THU AND
FRI...BOTH MODELS HAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A
BIT AFTER 15Z AND SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. WILL CARRY
A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBYS AT AGS 07Z-11Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 220537
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1237 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...VERY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG GRADIENT IN DEW POINTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A
BIT AFTER 15Z AND SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. WILL CARRY
A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBYS AT AGS 07Z-11Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220537
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1237 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...VERY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG GRADIENT IN DEW POINTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP A
BIT AFTER 15Z AND SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING.

CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. WILL CARRY
A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VSBYS AT AGS 07Z-11Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 220349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...VERY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG GRADIENT IN DEW POINTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME STRATO-CU OR ALTO-CUMULUS MAY
MOVE INTO THE CSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG
COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME THOUGH. STRATO-CU MORE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...VERY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG GRADIENT IN DEW POINTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME STRATO-CU OR ALTO-CUMULUS MAY
MOVE INTO THE CSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG
COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME THOUGH. STRATO-CU MORE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 220349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...VERY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG GRADIENT IN DEW POINTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME STRATO-CU OR ALTO-CUMULUS MAY
MOVE INTO THE CSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG
COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME THOUGH. STRATO-CU MORE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...VERY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG GRADIENT IN DEW POINTS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME STRATO-CU OR ALTO-CUMULUS MAY
MOVE INTO THE CSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG
COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME THOUGH. STRATO-CU MORE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 212337
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME STRATO-CU OR ALTO-CUMULUS MAY
MOVE INTO THE CSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG
COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME THOUGH. STRATO-CU MORE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 212337
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME STRATO-CU OR ALTO-CUMULUS MAY
MOVE INTO THE CSRA TOWARD DAYBREAK. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG
COMING OFF THE NEARBY RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME THOUGH. STRATO-CU MORE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 212202
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
502 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT
AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY
RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME
THOUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 212202
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
502 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT
AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY
RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME
THOUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 211830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
130 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK DRY FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTH AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
SLIGHTLY COOL...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT...VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH. SKIES CLEAR. WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT
AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY
RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME
THOUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 211830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
130 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK DRY FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTH AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
SLIGHTLY COOL...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT...VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH. SKIES CLEAR. WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS MON THRU TUE NT...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE EAST. GFS
SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO OUR REGION. DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY...AND CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT
AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY
RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME
THOUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 211714
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1214 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK DRY FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTH AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
SLIGHTLY COOL...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT...VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH. SKIES CLEAR. WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS MON THRU TUE NT...PER LATEST GUIDANCE...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE
EAST. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WED/THU WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT
AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY
RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME
THOUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 211714
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1214 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WEAK DRY FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTH AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
SLIGHTLY COOL...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TONIGHT...VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH. SKIES CLEAR. WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS MON THRU TUE NT...PER LATEST GUIDANCE...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE
EAST. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WED/THU WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG AT
AGS/OGB DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG COMING OFF THE NEARBY
RIVERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME
THOUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 211139
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
639 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DRY FRONT STILL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA)...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A REINFORCING COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE AIR MASS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...WITH
LOWERING DEWPOINTS. BAND OF THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE FA
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE...EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
OUT OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST ELEMENTS
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS MON THRU TUE NT...PER LATEST GUIDANCE...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE
EAST. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WED/THU WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCAL FOG HAS IMPACTED
AGS/CUB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT FOG PAST 13Z.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 211139
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
639 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DRY FRONT STILL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA)...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A REINFORCING COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE AIR MASS BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...WITH
LOWERING DEWPOINTS. BAND OF THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE FA
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE...EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
OUT OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST ELEMENTS
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEDGE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSITION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS MON THRU TUE NT...PER LATEST GUIDANCE...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE
EAST. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WED/THU WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCAL FOG HAS IMPACTED
AGS/CUB EARLY THIS MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT FOG PAST 13Z.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 210748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
248 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW CONTINEUS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DRY FRONT STILL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. AT 07Z...WINDS STILL LIGHT WSW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
(FA)...WITH MAIN DEWPOINT GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF OUR FA. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A
REINFORCING COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO NE BEHIND THE
FRONT TODAY...WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS. BAND OF THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER
IMPULSE...EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING.
MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST ELEMENTS LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH UPPER HEIGHT RISES FOR THE SE CONUS. SURFACE
HIGH CENTER TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST LATE SAT...BUT WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND WEST INTO OUR FA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SLOWER WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
RETURN...STILL INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF POPS...BUT TRENDING A LITTLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL COOL
DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO IN SITU WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA WITH
THE ONSET OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER WEAK
WEGDE WILL HOLD OR WHETHER A WARM FRONT CAN TRAVERSE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR FA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY/SUN NT. THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WITH
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING WEDGE AND WARM FRONT POSTION AND
INDICATIONS OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
APPEAR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUN/SUN
NT.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SW UPPER FLOW
OVER OUR REGION. BEST ATMOSPEHRIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
COAST MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
APPEARS WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS MON THRU TUE NT...PER LATEST GUIDANCE...TRENDED HIGHER TO THE
EAST. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE E CONUS BY
WED/THU WITH FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE AND COOL DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST BY 15Z AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FOG NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP...HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA AND LOWERING
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210541
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO OUR EAST
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOW THUS FAR. NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH A
FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
GENERALLY ZONAL TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO OUR NE AND TROUGHINESS MOVES INTO THE
SW US. COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...PUSHING INTO THE E CONUS
BY WED. UPPER HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SE CONUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY
850MB JET OF 60 KNOTS WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT
LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ON SUNDAY.

MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW FOR OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
AFFECTING THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST BY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF LEADING TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS SOLUTION
FROM PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST BY 15Z AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FOG NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP...HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA AND LOWERING
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210541
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO OUR EAST
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOW THUS FAR. NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH A
FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
GENERALLY ZONAL TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO OUR NE AND TROUGHINESS MOVES INTO THE
SW US. COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...PUSHING INTO THE E CONUS
BY WED. UPPER HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SE CONUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY
850MB JET OF 60 KNOTS WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT
LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ON SUNDAY.

MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW FOR OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
AFFECTING THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST BY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF LEADING TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS SOLUTION
FROM PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 09Z AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST BY 15Z AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FOG NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP...HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA AND LOWERING
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 210241
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
941 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO OUR EAST
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW THUS FAR TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL DOWN TO
THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
GENERALLY ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO OUR NE AND TROUGHINESS MOVES INTO THE
SW US. COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...PUSHING INTO THE E CONUS
BY WED. UPPER HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SE CONUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY
850MB JET OF 60 KNOTS WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT
LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ON SUNDAY.

MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW FOR OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
AFFECTING THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST BY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF LEADING TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS SOLUTION
FROM PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME NORTHEAST
5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 210241
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
941 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO OUR EAST
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW THUS FAR TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL DOWN TO
THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
GENERALLY ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO OUR NE AND TROUGHINESS MOVES INTO THE
SW US. COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...PUSHING INTO THE E CONUS
BY WED. UPPER HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SE CONUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY
850MB JET OF 60 KNOTS WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT
LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ON SUNDAY.

MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW FOR OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
AFFECTING THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST BY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF LEADING TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS SOLUTION
FROM PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME NORTHEAST
5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 202351
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO
OUR EAST SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES SCOOTING EAST WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BIGGEST IMPACT IS THE STRONGER WINDS
THAT THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING
AND WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL DOWN TO THE MIDDLE
30S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
GENERALLY ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO OUR NE AND TROUGHINESS MOVES INTO THE
SW US. COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...PUSHING INTO THE E CONUS
BY WED. UPPER HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SE CONUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY
850MB JET OF 60 KNOTS WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT
LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ON SUNDAY.

MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW FOR OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
AFFECTING THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST BY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF LEADING TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS SOLUTION
FROM PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TONIGHT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 202351
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO
OUR EAST SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES SCOOTING EAST WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BIGGEST IMPACT IS THE STRONGER WINDS
THAT THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING
AND WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL DOWN TO THE MIDDLE
30S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
GENERALLY ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO OUR NE AND TROUGHINESS MOVES INTO THE
SW US. COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...PUSHING INTO THE E CONUS
BY WED. UPPER HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SE CONUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY
850MB JET OF 60 KNOTS WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT
LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ON SUNDAY.

MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW FOR OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
AFFECTING THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST BY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF LEADING TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS SOLUTION
FROM PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TONIGHT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 202156
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
456 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO
OUR EAST SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES SCOOTING EAST WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BIGGEST IMPACT IS THE STRONGER WINDS
THAT THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING
AND WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL DOWN TO THE MIDDLE
30S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
GENERALLY ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO OUR NE AND TROUGHINESS MOVES INTO THE
SW US. COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...PUSHING INTO THE E CONUS
BY WED. UPPER HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SE CONUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY
850MB JET OF 60 KNOTS WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT
LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ON SUNDAY.

MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW FOR OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
AFFECTING THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST BY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF LEADING TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS SOLUTION
FROM PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK IN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...SOMETIMES GUSTY UP TO 18
KNOTS...DIMINISHING TO WESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. DO
NOT EXPECT FOG TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT WINDS AND THE DRY AIR
MASS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 201821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO
OUR EAST SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT AND WEAKEN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR SW...WITH A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SLIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
GENERALLY ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO OUR NE AND TROUGHINESS MOVES INTO THE
SW US. COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...PUSHING INTO THE E CONUS
BY WED. UPPER HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SE CONUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY
850MB JET OF 60 KNOTS WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT
LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ON SUNDAY.

MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW FOR OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
AFFECTING THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST BY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF LEADING TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS SOLUTION
FROM PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK IN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...SOMETIMES GUSTY UP TO 18
KNOTS...DIMINISHING TO WESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. DO
NOT EXPECT FOG TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT WINDS AND THE DRY AIR
MASS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 201821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO
OUR EAST SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT AND WEAKEN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR SW...WITH A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SLIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
DOWN TO THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
GENERALLY ZONAL FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT TO OUR NE AND TROUGHINESS MOVES INTO THE
SW US. COOL DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...PUSHING INTO THE E CONUS
BY WED. UPPER HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE SE CONUS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW/MOISTURE FLUX EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY
850MB JET OF 60 KNOTS WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT
LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ON SUNDAY.

MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW FOR OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER FRONT AND ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY
AFFECTING THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST BY MONDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LATEST GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF LEADING TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CHANCE POPS IN ORDER FOR
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARDS SOLUTION
FROM PREVIOUS ECMWF SHOWING WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK IN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...SOMETIMES GUSTY UP TO 18
KNOTS...DIMINISHING TO WESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. DO
NOT EXPECT FOG TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT WINDS AND THE DRY AIR
MASS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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