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000
FXUS62 KCAE 262221
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
521 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR-SHORE... GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM.

PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. STILL A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

COLDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT
SEEMS TO BE BY MID DAY SUNDAY AND MOVING OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CURRENTLY THE PRECIP
FOR THE SUNDAY EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS BUT OBSERVATION TRENDS SUPPORT JUST VFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS
WILL OCCUR LATE AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST BECOMES MORE DOMINATE. GUSTY WINDS
EARLY SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 262221
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
521 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR-SHORE... GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM.

PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. STILL A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

COLDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT
SEEMS TO BE BY MID DAY SUNDAY AND MOVING OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CURRENTLY THE PRECIP
FOR THE SUNDAY EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS BUT OBSERVATION TRENDS SUPPORT JUST VFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS
WILL OCCUR LATE AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST BECOMES MORE DOMINATE. GUSTY WINDS
EARLY SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 261921
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
221 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. RADAR
INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION AND DRY FARTHER SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY
COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE... GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
UNTIL 10 PM.

PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. STILL A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

COLDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT
SEEMS TO BE BY MID DAY SUNDAY AND MOVING OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CURRENTLY THE PRECIP
FOR THE SUNDAY EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CIGS AROUND 4 KFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECTED SOME
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
27/06Z. AFTER 27/15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 261921
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
221 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. RADAR
INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION AND DRY FARTHER SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY
COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE... GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
UNTIL 10 PM.

PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. STILL A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

COLDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT
SEEMS TO BE BY MID DAY SUNDAY AND MOVING OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CURRENTLY THE PRECIP
FOR THE SUNDAY EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CIGS AROUND 4 KFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECTED SOME
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
27/06Z. AFTER 27/15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 261906
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
206 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. RADAR
INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION AND DRY FARTHER SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY
COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE... GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
UNTIL 10 PM.

PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. STILL A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CIGS AROUND 4 KFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECTED SOME
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
27/06Z. AFTER 27/15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 261906
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
206 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. RADAR
INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO THE PEE DEE
REGION AND DRY FARTHER SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY
COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE... GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
UNTIL 10 PM.

PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. STILL A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CIGS AROUND 4 KFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECTED SOME
CLEARING THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
27/06Z. AFTER 27/15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 261752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND WAY FROM
THE AREA. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION AND DRY FARTHER SOUTH.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR
60 SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX.
LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...
GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND
LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM.

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CIGS AROUND 4 KFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST. WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 27/06Z.
AFTER 27/15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 261752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND WAY FROM
THE AREA. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION AND DRY FARTHER SOUTH.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR
60 SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX.
LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...
GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND
LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM.

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CIGS AROUND 4 KFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST. WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 27/06Z.
AFTER 27/15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 261751
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE A STRENTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND WAY FROM
THE AREA. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION AND DRY FARTHER SOUTH.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR
60 SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX.
LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...
GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND
LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM.

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CIGS AROUND 4 KFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST. WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 27/06Z.
AFTER 27/15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 261751
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE A STRENTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND WAY FROM
THE AREA. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION AND DRY FARTHER SOUTH.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR
60 SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX.
LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...
GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND
LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM.

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CIGS AROUND 4 KFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST. WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 27/06Z.
AFTER 27/15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 261439
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
939 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION AT MID-MORNING WILL
BE SWINGING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO CROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN NC WITH A
SECONDARY LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT WEAK AS H7-H5 DPVA LIMITED. KEPT POPS
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION
AND DRY FARTHER SOUTH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TO RETURN FOR THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S WITH THE COOLER READINGS
NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND EAST. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR-SHORE...GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND
LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOON TO 10 PM AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT.

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NC AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONSOLIDATE OFF SHORE AND LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WITH LOW AND MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE CSRA ATTM. EXPECT CEILING TO REMAIN VFR.
THOUGH...SOME CLOUDS AROUND 2 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY...15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
14 KNOTS BY 27/09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 261439
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
939 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION AT MID-MORNING WILL
BE SWINGING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO CROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN NC WITH A
SECONDARY LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT WEAK AS H7-H5 DPVA LIMITED. KEPT POPS
IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION
AND DRY FARTHER SOUTH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS TO RETURN FOR THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S WITH THE COOLER READINGS
NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND EAST. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR-SHORE...GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND
LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOON TO 10 PM AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT.

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AS UPPER NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NC AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
CONSOLIDATE OFF SHORE AND LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WITH LOW AND MID CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE CSRA ATTM. EXPECT CEILING TO REMAIN VFR.
THOUGH...SOME CLOUDS AROUND 2 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY...15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
14 KNOTS BY 27/09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 261106
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
606 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA...WEAKER SHORT WAVES OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AT 07Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATING A FEW
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT WEAK AS H7-H5
DPVA LIMITED. MOS POPS QUITE LOW SO REDUCED POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS
RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...GUSTS TO 25 KTS
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOON TO 10 PM
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES AS UPPER NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD ADVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TODAY THEN NORTHEASTERLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WITH LOW AND MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN GA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. EXPECT CEILING TO REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER SOME
CLOUDS AROUND 2 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED VCSH AT ALL
SITES AS WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN REMAINING NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH WESTERLY AROUND 7
KNOTS AT MOST TAF SITES WHICH WILL QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AT 14Z AGS/DNL...15Z ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
FROM 18Z THROUGH 27/02Z THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 14 KNOTS BY 27/09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 261106
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
606 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA...WEAKER SHORT WAVES OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AT 07Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATING A FEW
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT WEAK AS H7-H5
DPVA LIMITED. MOS POPS QUITE LOW SO REDUCED POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS
RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...GUSTS TO 25 KTS
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOON TO 10 PM
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES AS UPPER NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD ADVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TODAY THEN NORTHEASTERLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WITH LOW AND MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN GA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. EXPECT CEILING TO REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER SOME
CLOUDS AROUND 2 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED VCSH AT ALL
SITES AS WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN REMAINING NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH WESTERLY AROUND 7
KNOTS AT MOST TAF SITES WHICH WILL QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AT 14Z AGS/DNL...15Z ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
FROM 18Z THROUGH 27/02Z THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 14 KNOTS BY 27/09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 260936
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA...WEAKER SHORT WAVES OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AT 07Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATING A FEW
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT WEAK AS H7-H5
DPVA LIMITED. MOS POPS QUITE LOW SO REDUCED POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS
RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...GUSTS TO 25 KTS
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOON TO 10 PM
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES AS UPPER NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD ADVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT HAVE MOVED INTO
CENTRAL GA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THROUGH MIDDAY HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED RESULTING
IN INCLUSION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z AT
AGS/DNL/OGB AND 11 TO 18Z AT CAE/CUB. CEILINGS WILL RISE AFTER 18Z
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...CURRENT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 11Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS. AROUND 18Z WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 260936
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE TO ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA...WEAKER SHORT WAVES OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AT 07Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATING A FEW
SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT WEAK AS H7-H5
DPVA LIMITED. MOS POPS QUITE LOW SO REDUCED POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS
RELATIVELY COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...GUSTS TO 25 KTS
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
CSRA...CLARKS HILL/THURMOND LAKE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOON TO 10 PM
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES AS UPPER NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD ADVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT HAVE MOVED INTO
CENTRAL GA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THROUGH MIDDAY HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED RESULTING
IN INCLUSION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z AT
AGS/DNL/OGB AND 11 TO 18Z AT CAE/CUB. CEILINGS WILL RISE AFTER 18Z
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...CURRENT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 11Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS. AROUND 18Z WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 260803
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA...WEAKER SHORT WAVES OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY AT 07Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATING A FEW SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS MORNING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...BUT MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT WEAK AS H7-H5 DPVA
LIMITED. MOS POPS QUITE LOW SO REDUCED POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST
GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY
COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WILL HOLD OFF
ON LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THRU MORNING AS
APPEARS MARGINAL. STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKES MAY BE AFTER 00Z AS
COLD ADVECTION INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES AS UPPER NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD ADVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT HAVE MOVED INTO
CENTRAL GA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THROUGH MIDDAY HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED RESULTING
IN INCLUSION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z AT
AGS/DNL/OGB AND 11 TO 18Z AT CAE/CUB. CEILINGS WILL RISE AFTER 18Z
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...CURRENT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 11Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS. AROUND 18Z WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 260803
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA...WEAKER SHORT WAVES OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY AT 07Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RADAR INDICATING A FEW SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS MORNING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...BUT MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT WEAK AS H7-H5 DPVA
LIMITED. MOS POPS QUITE LOW SO REDUCED POPS TO AT MOST SLIGHT
CHANCE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST
GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB JETMAX. LAKE WATERS RELATIVELY
COOL...SO STRONGEST WINDS NEAR-SHORE...GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WILL HOLD OFF
ON LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THRU MORNING AS
APPEARS MARGINAL. STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKES MAY BE AFTER 00Z AS
COLD ADVECTION INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES AS UPPER NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST AND COLD ADVECTION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT HAVE MOVED INTO
CENTRAL GA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THROUGH MIDDAY HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED RESULTING
IN INCLUSION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z AT
AGS/DNL/OGB AND 11 TO 18Z AT CAE/CUB. CEILINGS WILL RISE AFTER 18Z
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...CURRENT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 11Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS. AROUND 18Z WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 260617
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS
IS DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
NORTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. H5 TEMPS AS LOW
AS MINUS 28C. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT GRAUPEL GIVEN SUCH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON MONDAY GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOUDS. IT SHOULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED...SO WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT HAVE MOVED INTO
CENTRAL GA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THROUGH MIDDAY HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED RESULTING
IN INCLUSION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z AT
AGS/DNL/OGB AND 11 TO 18Z AT CAE/CUB. CEILINGS WILL RISE AFTER 18Z
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...CURRENT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 11Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS. AROUND 18Z WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 260617
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS
IS DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
NORTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. H5 TEMPS AS LOW
AS MINUS 28C. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT GRAUPEL GIVEN SUCH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON MONDAY GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOUDS. IT SHOULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED...SO WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT HAVE MOVED INTO
CENTRAL GA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THROUGH MIDDAY HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED RESULTING
IN INCLUSION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z AT
AGS/DNL/OGB AND 11 TO 18Z AT CAE/CUB. CEILINGS WILL RISE AFTER 18Z
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...CURRENT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 11Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS. AROUND 18Z WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 260028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS
IS DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
NORTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. H5 TEMPS AS LOW
AS MINUS 28C. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT GRAUPEL GIVEN SUCH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON MONDAY GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOUDS. IT SHOULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED...SO WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AS IT MOVES CLOSER OVERNIGHT.  CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
END OF VFR TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY.  THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BRIEFLY BETWEEN
11Z AND 15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH...AND WITH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG FORMATION.  WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS...THEN AS THE LOW
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS...AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS OR
HIGHER.  AT THIS TIME THE RAIN CHANCES AT ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 260028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS
IS DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
NORTHEAST AND UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. H5 TEMPS AS LOW
AS MINUS 28C. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT GRAUPEL GIVEN SUCH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON MONDAY GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOUDS. IT SHOULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...LOOKS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED...SO WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AS IT MOVES CLOSER OVERNIGHT.  CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
END OF VFR TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY.  THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BRIEFLY BETWEEN
11Z AND 15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH...AND WITH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG FORMATION.  WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS...THEN AS THE LOW
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS...AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS OR
HIGHER.  AT THIS TIME THE RAIN CHANCES AT ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 252355
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
655 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS IS DRY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. H5 TEMPS AS LOW
AS MINUS 28C. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT GRAUPEL GIVEN SUCH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON MONDAY GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOUDS. IT SHOULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED...SO WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AS IT MOVES CLOSER OVERNIGHT.  CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
END OF VFR TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY.  THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BRIEFLY BETWEEN
11Z AND 15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH...AND WITH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG FORMATION.  WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS...THEN AS THE LOW
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS...AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS OR
HIGHER.  AT THIS TIME THE RAIN CHANCES AT ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 252355
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
655 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS IS DRY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. H5 TEMPS AS LOW
AS MINUS 28C. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT GRAUPEL GIVEN SUCH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON MONDAY GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOUDS. IT SHOULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED...SO WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AS IT MOVES CLOSER OVERNIGHT.  CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
END OF VFR TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY.  THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BRIEFLY BETWEEN
11Z AND 15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH...AND WITH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG FORMATION.  WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS...THEN AS THE LOW
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS...AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS OR
HIGHER.  AT THIS TIME THE RAIN CHANCES AT ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 251941
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
241 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS IS DRY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVES
WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. H5 TEMPS AS LOW AS
MINUS 28C. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH
COLD ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE
THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT GRAUPEL GIVEN SUCH
COLD TEMPS ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH AND CLOUDS. IT SHOULD
BECOME A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT IN WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED...SO WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NC/VA
BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THIS EVENING...MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL THEN LOWER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD NEAR 12Z. HAVE GONE LOW END VFR FOR NOW
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MODELS ALSO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK ALTHOUGH BELIEVE LIGHT WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE TAF SITES
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO TIMING AND COVERAGE SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED MENTION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 5 TO 7
KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 251941
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
241 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS IS DRY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVES
WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. H5 TEMPS AS LOW AS
MINUS 28C. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH
COLD ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE
THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT GRAUPEL GIVEN SUCH
COLD TEMPS ALOFT. WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH AND CLOUDS. IT SHOULD
BECOME A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT IN WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
WITH ITS LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
PERIODS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THE MAIN AREA CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED...SO WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS
RISING FOR WEDNESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THEN WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES BY FRIDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND
FASTER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS GENERATES LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INDICATE PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NC/VA
BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THIS EVENING...MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL THEN LOWER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD NEAR 12Z. HAVE GONE LOW END VFR FOR NOW
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MODELS ALSO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK ALTHOUGH BELIEVE LIGHT WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE TAF SITES
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO TIMING AND COVERAGE SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED MENTION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 5 TO 7
KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 251856
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
156 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS IS DRY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT... IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. STEEPENING
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON.
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TO BE LIGHT. CUT MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE...BUT MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT SO CUT POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL END OF PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NC/VA
BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THIS EVENING...MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL THEN LOWER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD NEAR 12Z. HAVE GONE LOW END VFR FOR NOW
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MODELS ALSO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK ALTHOUGH BELIEVE LIGHT WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE TAF SITES
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO TIMING AND COVERAGE SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED MENTION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 5 TO 7
KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 251856
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
156 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS IS DRY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
STILL EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT... IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. STEEPENING
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT
APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON.
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TO BE LIGHT. CUT MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE...BUT MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT SO CUT POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL END OF PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NC/VA
BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THIS EVENING...MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL THEN LOWER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD NEAR 12Z. HAVE GONE LOW END VFR FOR NOW
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MODELS ALSO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK ALTHOUGH BELIEVE LIGHT WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE TAF SITES
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO TIMING AND COVERAGE SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED MENTION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 5 TO 7
KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 251432
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
932 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AIR
MASS DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CAROLINAS. SOUTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AND SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY WITH BULK OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER WEST OF REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AS CLIPPER APPROACHES NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CUT MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN COLD
ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS. UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE
DEE...BUT MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED. TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT SO CUT POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL END OF PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOWERING
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT SPREADING MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO
TIMING AND COVERAGE SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL SITES AND WILL
ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 251432
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
932 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AIR
MASS DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CAROLINAS. SOUTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AND SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY WITH BULK OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER WEST OF REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AS CLIPPER APPROACHES NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CUT MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN COLD
ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS. UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE
DEE...BUT MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED. TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT SO CUT POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL END OF PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOWERING
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT SPREADING MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO
TIMING AND COVERAGE SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL SITES AND WILL
ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 251129
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AIR MASS DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CAROLINAS. SOUTH
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH BULK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER WEST OF REGION
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AS CLIPPER APPROACHES NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CUT MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN COLD
ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS. UPPER TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE
DEE...BUT MOISTURE OVERALL APPEARS LIMITED. TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT SO CUT POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL END OF PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOWERING
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT SPREADING MID AND UPPER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS LOWERING TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO
TIMING AND COVERAGE SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL SITES AND WILL
ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 250757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AIR MASS DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CAROLINAS. SOUTH
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH BULK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER WEST OF REGION
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AS CLIPPER APPROACHES NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  THE COLD
FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH COLD
ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE
THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CUT MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SLIGHTLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. A
FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE...BUT MOISTURE OVERALL
APPEARS LIMITED. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT SO CUT POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL END OF PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVED EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 26/00Z AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 250550
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1250 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE PALMETTO STATE AS
THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A 30
KT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2 KFT OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH 09Z...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S AND LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 50
DEGREES. EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN UP ON THE AREA LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND WILL STAY
NEAR CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NC MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. KEPT LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 40 AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVED EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 26/00Z AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 250550
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1250 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE PALMETTO STATE AS
THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A 30
KT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2 KFT OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH 09Z...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S AND LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 50
DEGREES. EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN UP ON THE AREA LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND WILL STAY
NEAR CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NC MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. KEPT LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 40 AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVED EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 26/00Z AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 250304
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1004 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE PALMETTO STATE AS
THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A 30
KT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2 KFT OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH 09Z...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S AND LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 50
DEGREES. EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN UP ON THE AREA LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND WILL STAY
NEAR CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NC MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. KEPT LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 40 AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.  DRY HIGH
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUBSIDES. HOWEVER WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 3 KTS OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME SW ON SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 250304
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1004 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE PALMETTO STATE AS
THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A 30
KT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2 KFT OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH 09Z...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S AND LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 50
DEGREES. EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN UP ON THE AREA LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND WILL STAY
NEAR CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NC MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. KEPT LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 40 AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.  DRY HIGH
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUBSIDES. HOWEVER WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 3 KTS OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME SW ON SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 242315
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF PRODUCED BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON THE AREA LAKES.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS ON THE LAKES HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE PALMETTO
STATE AS THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS
SHOW A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K FT OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH 09Z...TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S AND LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 50 DEGREES. EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN UP ON THE AREA LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND WILL
STAY NEAR CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NC MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. KEPT LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 40 AND
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUBSIDES. HOWEVER WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
ABOVE 3 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME SW ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
SUFFICIENT MIXING AT THE SURFACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 242315
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF PRODUCED BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON THE AREA LAKES.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS ON THE LAKES HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE PALMETTO
STATE AS THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS
SHOW A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K FT OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH 09Z...TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S AND LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 50 DEGREES. EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN UP ON THE AREA LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND WILL
STAY NEAR CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NC MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. KEPT LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 40 AND
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUBSIDES. HOWEVER WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
ABOVE 3 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME SW ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
SUFFICIENT MIXING AT THE SURFACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241930
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS
NORTHEASTWARD PATH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
AREA TONIGHT KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NC MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH/SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. KEPT LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 40 AND
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT AS CLOUDS PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF IS PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT THE TAF SITES. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DO NOT EXPECT FOG AT
THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 3 TO 5
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-
     016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241842
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS
NORTHEASTWARD PATH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
AREA TONIGHT KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING
TO COASTAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY
AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT AS CLOUDS PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF IS PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT THE TAF SITES. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DO NOT EXPECT FOG AT
THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 3 TO 5
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-
     016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241842
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS
NORTHEASTWARD PATH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
AREA TONIGHT KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING
TO COASTAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY
AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT AS CLOUDS PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF IS PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT THE TAF SITES. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DO NOT EXPECT FOG AT
THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 3 TO 5
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-
     016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241445
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
945 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGION DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGIONS. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH ALL RAIN ENDING BY MIDDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH- NORTHEAST ALONG
THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING WINDS ON LAKE MURRAY UP TO 21 MPH THIS
MORNING SO HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA TONIGHT
KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING
TO COASTAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY
AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BECOMING MVFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
BY 18Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MID MORNING...VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN VFR. LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO VFR BY
18Z.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-
     016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241445
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
945 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGION DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE REGIONS. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH ALL RAIN ENDING BY MIDDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH- NORTHEAST ALONG
THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING WINDS ON LAKE MURRAY UP TO 21 MPH THIS
MORNING SO HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA TONIGHT
KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING
TO COASTAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY
AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BECOMING MVFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
BY 18Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MID MORNING...VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN VFR. LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO VFR BY
18Z.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-
     016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241348
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
848 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGION DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGIONS. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN ENDING BY MIDDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THIS GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE AND HAVE
REMAINED WITH 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS REMAINS JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
AREA TONIGHT KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING
TO COASTAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY
AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BECOMING MVFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
BY 18Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MID MORNING...VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN VFR. LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO VFR BY
18Z.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241348
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
848 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGION DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGIONS. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH ALL RAIN ENDING BY MIDDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THIS GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE AND HAVE
REMAINED WITH 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS REMAINS JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
AREA TONIGHT KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING
TO COASTAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY
AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BECOMING MVFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
BY 18Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MID MORNING...VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN VFR. LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO VFR BY
18Z.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241146
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA DIMINISHING. EXPECT THE
RAIN TO END BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THEN AROUND MIDDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...RAIN HAS BEGUN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE CSRA AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS
AREA OF NC. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
MORNING REMAINING SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS THE CSRA AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. BELIEVE THIS GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE AND HAVE
REMAINED WITH 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS REMAINS JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
CROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS...AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE
LOW CENTER CROSSING THE AREA CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
AND SOUTHERN CSRA HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
SOME SHOWERS PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA
TONIGHT KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH
WILL CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES YET BE BELOW LAKE
WINDS ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING
TO COASTAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY
AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING MVFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
VFR BY 18Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. RADAR
INDICATING BULK OF SHOWERS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AT 12Z.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE AT MOST SCATTERED DURING THE REST OF THE
MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MID MORNING...VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO BE 6 MILES OR HIGHER. LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
RISE TO VFR BY 18Z.


WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 241146
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA DIMINISHING. EXPECT THE
RAIN TO END BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THEN AROUND MIDDAY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...RAIN HAS BEGUN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE CSRA AND
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS
AREA OF NC. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
MORNING REMAINING SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS THE CSRA AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. BELIEVE THIS GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE AND HAVE
REMAINED WITH 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS REMAINS JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
CROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS...AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE
LOW CENTER CROSSING THE AREA CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
AND SOUTHERN CSRA HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
SOME SHOWERS PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA
TONIGHT KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH
WILL CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES YET BE BELOW LAKE
WINDS ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING
TO COASTAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY
AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING MVFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
VFR BY 18Z.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. RADAR
INDICATING BULK OF SHOWERS MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AT 12Z.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE AT MOST SCATTERED DURING THE REST OF THE
MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS WILL BE LOW THROUGH MID MORNING...VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO BE 6 MILES OR HIGHER. LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
RISE TO VFR BY 18Z.


WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 240945
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
445 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS...AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS...BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE LOW CENTER
CROSSING THE AREA CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN
CSRA HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING...AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH WILL CREATE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES YET BE BELOW LAKE WINDS ADVISORY
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING
TO COASTAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY
AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH VFR FINALLY
RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. LOWER VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

NORTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.
CEILINGS RISING TO VFR BY 18Z. CLEAR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 240945
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
445 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS...AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS...BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE LOW CENTER
CROSSING THE AREA CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN
CSRA HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING...AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH WILL CREATE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES YET BE BELOW LAKE WINDS ADVISORY
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING
TO COASTAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY
AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH VFR FINALLY
RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. LOWER VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

NORTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.
CEILINGS RISING TO VFR BY 18Z. CLEAR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 240945
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
445 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS...AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS...BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE LOW CENTER
CROSSING THE AREA CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN
CSRA HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING...AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH WILL CREATE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES YET BE BELOW LAKE WINDS ADVISORY
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SWING
TO COASTAL NC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY
AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH VFR FINALLY
RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. LOWER VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

NORTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.
CEILINGS RISING TO VFR BY 18Z. CLEAR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 240538
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1238 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL END SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ELONGATED AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE SC
COASTAL PLAIN SW ACROSS S GA. A ROUGHLY 25 DEGREE TEMP GRADIENT
EXISTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) AT 10PM...WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND CENTRAL FA...AND TEMPS NEAR 60 SE
FA. THE LOWS WILL TRACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. IN THE NEAR
TERM...THE WARM FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SE FA
WITH RISING TEMPS THERE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PATCHES
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING SO
HAVE SHOWN POPS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
GULF. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO DO NOT
EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW
PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH.

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND COLD ADVECTION.  SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN TO THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT SO DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS A 1033MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS MID WEEK.  HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.

A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK AND DRY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH VFR FINALLY
RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. LOWER VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

NORTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL
PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.
CEILINGS RISING TO VFR BY 18Z. CLEAR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL END SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL
CONTINEU TO SWING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ELONGATED AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE SC
COASTAL PLAIN SW ACROSS S GA. A ROUGHLY 25 DEGREE TEMP GRADIENT
EXISTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) AT 10PM...WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND CENTRAL FA...AND TEMPS NEAR 60 SE
FA. THE LOWS WILL TRACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. IN THE NEAR
TERM...THE WARM FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SE FA
WITH RISING TEMPS THERE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PATCHES
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING SO
HAVE SHOWN POPS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
GULF. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO DO NOT
EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW
PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH.

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND COLD ADVECTION.  SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN TO THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT SO DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS A 1033MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS MID WEEK.  HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.

A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK AND DRY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MESSY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH VFR FINALLY RETURNING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE SURFACE FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CWA...AND WITH THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE VARIABLE.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AT
CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL. AT OGB WHICH IS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH DIRECTION HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE
FRONT FLUCTUATES.  RADAR VWP DOES SHOW WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING...SO
HAVE DROPPED THE MENTION OF LLWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 240336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL END SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL
CONTINEU TO SWING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ELONGATED AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE SC
COASTAL PLAIN SW ACROSS S GA. A ROUGHLY 25 DEGREE TEMP GRADIENT
EXISTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) AT 10PM...WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND CENTRAL FA...AND TEMPS NEAR 60 SE
FA. THE LOWS WILL TRACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. IN THE NEAR
TERM...THE WARM FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SE FA
WITH RISING TEMPS THERE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PATCHES
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING SO
HAVE SHOWN POPS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
GULF. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO DO NOT
EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW
PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH.

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND COLD ADVECTION.  SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN TO THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT SO DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS A 1033MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS MID WEEK.  HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.

A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK AND DRY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MESSY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH VFR FINALLY RETURNING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE SURFACE FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CWA...AND WITH THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE VARIABLE.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AT
CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL. AT OGB WHICH IS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH DIRECTION HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE
FRONT FLUCTUATES.  RADAR VWP DOES SHOW WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING...SO
HAVE DROPPED THE MENTION OF LLWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL END SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL
CONTINEU TO SWING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ELONGATED AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE SC
COASTAL PLAIN SW ACROSS S GA. A ROUGHLY 25 DEGREE TEMP GRADIENT
EXISTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) AT 10PM...WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND CENTRAL FA...AND TEMPS NEAR 60 SE
FA. THE LOWS WILL TRACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. IN THE NEAR
TERM...THE WARM FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SE FA
WITH RISING TEMPS THERE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PATCHES
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING SO
HAVE SHOWN POPS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
GULF. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO DO NOT
EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW
PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH.

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND COLD ADVECTION.  SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN TO THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT SO DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS A 1033MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS MID WEEK.  HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.

A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK AND DRY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MESSY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH VFR FINALLY RETURNING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE SURFACE FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CWA...AND WITH THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE VARIABLE.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AT
CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL. AT OGB WHICH IS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH DIRECTION HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE
FRONT FLUCTUATES.  RADAR VWP DOES SHOW WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING...SO
HAVE DROPPED THE MENTION OF LLWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 240336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL END SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL
CONTINEU TO SWING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ELONGATED AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR THE SC
COASTAL PLAIN SW ACROSS S GA. A ROUGHLY 25 DEGREE TEMP GRADIENT
EXISTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) AT 10PM...WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND CENTRAL FA...AND TEMPS NEAR 60 SE
FA. THE LOWS WILL TRACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. IN THE NEAR
TERM...THE WARM FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SE FA
WITH RISING TEMPS THERE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES PATCHES
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING SO
HAVE SHOWN POPS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
GULF. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO DO NOT
EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW
PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH.

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND COLD ADVECTION.  SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN TO THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT SO DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS A 1033MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS MID WEEK.  HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.

A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK AND DRY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MESSY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH VFR FINALLY RETURNING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE SURFACE FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CWA...AND WITH THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE VARIABLE.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AT
CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL. AT OGB WHICH IS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH DIRECTION HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE
FRONT FLUCTUATES.  RADAR VWP DOES SHOW WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING...SO
HAVE DROPPED THE MENTION OF LLWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL END SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US WILL
SWING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
TAKE A SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SW GA NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A SECONDARY LOW TRACKING NE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING JUST TO OUR WEST BEHIND THE LEAD IMPULSES. ALSO...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NE LATER TONIGHT. SO...THIS
SUGGESTS PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. IN THE NEAR
TERM...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PATCHY AND
LIGHTER LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE LESS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER N FL AND NE GOMEX BLOCKING BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION. NONETHELESS...AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD HAS
RECEIVED A RESPECTABLE 0.87 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 600 PM EST. IN
THE NEAR TERM...HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL AFFECT MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE APPEARS
WILL HOLD IN THE NEAR TERM NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA. HOWEVER WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW APPEARS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FA
WITH RISING TEMPS EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS LATE
AS LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR NE. OVERALL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THIS EVENT APPEAR WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ABOUT ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTH FA TO ABOUT ONE INCH OR A LITTLE
OVER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING SO
HAVE SHOWN POPS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
GULF. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO DO NOT
EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW
PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH.

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND COLD ADVECTION.  SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN TO THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT SO DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS A 1033MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS MID WEEK.  HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.

A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK AND DRY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MESSY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...WITH VFR FINALLY RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH 02Z...THEN SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR
BETWEEN 02Z-04Z. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL PUSH EAST BY 06Z...WITH
DRIZZLE REMAINING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE SURFACE FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CWA...AND WITH THE SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
PLAY HAVOC ON THE SURFACE WIND FORECASTS DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL. AT OGB WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT...EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY. LLWS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH 06Z DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THE TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW
SOME WEAKENING AFTER 06Z...SO WILL ALLOW THE LLWS TO BE DROPPED AT
THAT TIME. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KNTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 232341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL END SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US WILL
SWING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
TAKE A SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SW GA NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A SECONDARY LOW TRACKING NE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING JUST TO OUR WEST BEHIND THE LEAD IMPULSES. ALSO...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NE LATER TONIGHT. SO...THIS
SUGGESTS PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. IN THE NEAR
TERM...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PATCHY AND
LIGHTER LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE LESS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER N FL AND NE GOMEX BLOCKING BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION. NONETHELESS...AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD HAS
RECEIVED A RESPECTABLE 0.87 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 600 PM EST. IN
THE NEAR TERM...HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL AFFECT MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE APPEARS
WILL HOLD IN THE NEAR TERM NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA. HOWEVER WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW APPEARS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FA
WITH RISING TEMPS EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS LATE
AS LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR NE. OVERALL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THIS EVENT APPEAR WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ABOUT ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTH FA TO ABOUT ONE INCH OR A LITTLE
OVER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING SO
HAVE SHOWN POPS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
GULF. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO DO NOT
EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW
PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH.

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND COLD ADVECTION.  SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN TO THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT SO DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS A 1033MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS MID WEEK.  HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.

A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK AND DRY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MESSY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...WITH VFR FINALLY RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH 02Z...THEN SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN OCCUR
BETWEEN 02Z-04Z. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL PUSH EAST BY 06Z...WITH
DRIZZLE REMAINING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE SURFACE FRONT JUST EAST OF THE CWA...AND WITH THE SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
PLAY HAVOC ON THE SURFACE WIND FORECASTS DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL. AT OGB WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT...EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY. LLWS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH 06Z DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THE TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW
SOME WEAKENING AFTER 06Z...SO WILL ALLOW THE LLWS TO BE DROPPED AT
THAT TIME. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KNTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNTS AFTER 12Z-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 232303
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
603 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL END SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US WILL
SWING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
TAKE A SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SW GA NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A SECONDARY LOW TRACKING NE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING JUST TO OUR WEST BEHIND THE LEAD IMPULSES. ALSO...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NE LATER TONIGHT. SO...THIS
SUGGESTS PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. IN THE NEAR
TERM...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PATCHY AND
LIGHTER LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE LESS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER N FL AND NE GOMEX BLOCKING BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION. NONETHELESS...AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD HAS
RECEIVED A RESPECTABLE 0.87 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 600 PM EST. IN
THE NEAR TERM...HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL AFFECT MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE APPEARS
WILL HOLD IN THE NEAR TERM NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA. HOWEVER WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW APPEARS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FA
WITH RISING TEMPS EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS LATE
AS LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR NE. OVERALL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THIS EVENT APPEAR WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ABOUT ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTH FA TO ABOUT ONE INCH OR A LITTLE
OVER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE SHOWN POPS
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MOST
OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN GULF. CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO DO NOT EXPECT IDEAL
CONDITIONS. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW
PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH.

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND COLD ADVECTION.  SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN TO THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT SO DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS A 1033MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS MID WEEK.  HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.

A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK AND DRY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CIGS HAVE FALLEN TO MVFR CATEGORY AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
DROP TO IFR CIGS BETWEEN 19Z-22Z...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS
BUT WILL CONTINUE MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MODEL TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN PUSHING OUT OF THE
AREA EARLIER...AFTER 03Z OR SO ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
AND IFR/LIFR CIGS. AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES DURING THE 04Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH AFTER 12Z-14Z.
HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z SATURDAY BUT WILL OPT
TO KEEP MVFR CIGS GOING THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232303
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
603 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL END SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US WILL
SWING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
TAKE A SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SW GA NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A SECONDARY LOW TRACKING NE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT.
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING JUST TO OUR WEST BEHIND THE LEAD IMPULSES. ALSO...BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LEAD
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NE LATER TONIGHT. SO...THIS
SUGGESTS PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. IN THE NEAR
TERM...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE PATCHY AND
LIGHTER LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE LESS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTED...POSSIBLY DUE TO
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER N FL AND NE GOMEX BLOCKING BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION. NONETHELESS...AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD HAS
RECEIVED A RESPECTABLE 0.87 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 600 PM EST. IN
THE NEAR TERM...HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL AFFECT MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. WEAK SURFACE WEDGE APPEARS
WILL HOLD IN THE NEAR TERM NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA. HOWEVER WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW APPEARS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FA
WITH RISING TEMPS EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS LATE
AS LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR NE. OVERALL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THIS EVENT APPEAR WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ABOUT ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTH FA TO ABOUT ONE INCH OR A LITTLE
OVER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE SHOWN POPS
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MOST
OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN GULF. CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST SO DO NOT EXPECT IDEAL
CONDITIONS. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS A
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW
PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH.

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND COLD ADVECTION.  SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN TO THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT SO DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS A 1033MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS MID WEEK.  HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.

A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK AND DRY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. CIGS HAVE FALLEN TO MVFR CATEGORY AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
DROP TO IFR CIGS BETWEEN 19Z-22Z...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS
BUT WILL CONTINUE MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MODEL TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN PUSHING OUT OF THE
AREA EARLIER...AFTER 03Z OR SO ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
AND IFR/LIFR CIGS. AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES DURING THE 04Z-06Z
TIME FRAME...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH AFTER 12Z-14Z.
HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z SATURDAY BUT WILL OPT
TO KEEP MVFR CIGS GOING THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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