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000
FXUS62 KCAE 241449
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED
OFF THE COAST WHILE YET ANOTHER FRONT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPSLOPE CLOUDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PEE DEE REGION AND NEW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE DOWN TO 0.70 INCHES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT THE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT IS OCCURRING ALTHOUGH THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FORECAST NUMBERS AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE
NORTH BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A LITTLE STRONGER COMPARED TO
THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO DISPLAYS THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
IT SHOULD BE DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. EXPECT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COVERAGE LIMITED BY
THE UPPER RIDGING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. EXPECTING 15 TO 20
MPH WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z
SATURDAY TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIRMASS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. WIND APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE IS HIGH REDUCING THE FIRE
THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC


000
FXUS62 KCAE 241046
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FURTHER DRYING HAS OCCURRED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE A
DRY AND BREEZY DAY. WE ARE GETTING OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START
BECAUSE OF MIXING. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY. THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE
NORTH BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A LITTLE STRONGER COMPARED TO
THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO DISPLAYS THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
IT SHOULD BE DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. EXPECT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COVERAGE LIMITED BY
THE UPPER RIDGING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING.  WILL MENTION LLWS UNTIL 14Z DUE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z SATURDAY TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. WIND APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE IS HIGH REDUCING THE FIRE
THREAT.

&&

&&
.CLIMATE...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 241026
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FURTHER DRYING HAS OCCURRED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE A
DRY AND BREEZY DAY. WE ARE GETTING OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START
BECAUSE OF MIXING. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY. THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE
NORTH BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A LITTLE STRONGER COMPARED TO
THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO DISPLAYS THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
IT SHOULD BE DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. EXPECT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COVERAGE LIMITED BY
THE UPPER RIDGING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING.  WILL MENTION LLWS UNTIL 14Z DUE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z SATURDAY TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. WIND APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE IS HIGH REDUCING THE FIRE
THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 240722
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
322 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FURTHER DRYING HAS OCCURRED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE A
DRY AND BREEZY DAY. WE ARE GETTING OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START
BECAUSE OF MIXING. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY. THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE
NORTH BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A LITTLE STRONGER COMPARED TO
THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO DISPLAYS THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
IT SHOULD BE DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. EXPECT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COVERAGE LIMITED BY
THE UPPER RIDGING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SOME
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PLUS SOME DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THUS PRECLUDING ANY
FOG/STRATUS THREAT. WILL MENTION LLWS UNTIL 14Z DUE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 35 KTS NEAR 2000 FT AGL. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. WIND APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE IS HIGH REDUCING THE FIRE
THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 240538
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
138 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FURTHER DRYING HAS OCCURRED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE A
DRY AND BREEZY DAY. WE ARE GETTING OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START
BECAUSE OF MIXING. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY. THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE
NORTH BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A LITTLE STRONGER COMPARED TO
THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO DISPLAYS THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
IT SHOULD BE DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. EXPECT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COVERAGE LIMITED BY
THE UPPER RIDGING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SOME
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PLUS SOME DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THUS PRECLUDING ANY
FOG/STRATUS THREAT. WILL MENTION LLWS UNTIL 14Z DUE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 35 KTS NEAR 2000 FT AGL. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE IS HIGH REDUCING
THE FIRE THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 240329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1129 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. FURTHER DRYING
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT BY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL BECAUSE OF AIR
MASS MODIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH BUT ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE FRONT
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES.
EXPECT MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SOME
LATE TONIGHT...PLUS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS PRECLUDING ANY FOG/STRATUS THREAT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME
THROUGH IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS MAINLY BELOW 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO AROUND
25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE IS HIGH REDUCING THE FIRE THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 240213
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1013 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IN THE UPSTATE AT 02Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION...SO REMOVED POPS FOR REST OF NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH GFS MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODEL BLEND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. AIR MASS MODIFIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH BUT ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE FRONT
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE AIR MASS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND THE INSTABILITY INCREASES. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FROM THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY TO THE MID 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE TO
THE LOWER 60S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SOME
TONIGHT...PLUS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...THUS PRECLUDING ANY FOG/STRATUS THREAT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH IN
THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL RED FLAG...EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS MAINLY BELOW 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO AROUND
25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE IS HIGH REDUCING FIRE THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 232342
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...CLEARING ACROSS MIDLANDS. POPS DECREASING RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE REGION AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE UPSTATE AND NORTH
GEORGIA. LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH GFS MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODEL BLEND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. AIR MASS MODIFIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH BUT ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE FRONT
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE AIR MASS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND THE INSTABILITY INCREASES. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FROM THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY TO THE MID 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE TO
THE LOWER 60S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CHANCES FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SOME TONIGHT...PLUS SOME DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...PRECLUDING ANY FOG/STRATUS
THREAT. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL RED FLAG...EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS MAINLY BELOW 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO AROUND
25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE IS HIGH REDUCING FIRE THREAT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 232103
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WEAK TO MODERATE HOWEVER DRIER AIR
ADVECTING EAST FROM GEORGIA. RADAR SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN/NORTH MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLUSTER OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPSTATE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF COLUMBIA EARLY THIS EVENING. DRY MID LEVEL AIR SUPPORTS A
HAIL THREAT...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.

TONIGHT...A 20 PERCENT CHANCE EARLY. PLAN ON NO POPS IN THE WEST
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOWS
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH GFS MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODEL BLEND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. AIR MASS MODIFIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH BUT ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE FRONT
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE AIR MASS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND THE INSTABILITY INCREASES. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FROM THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY TO THE MID 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE TO
THE LOWER 60S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER IMPULSES WILL COME THROUGH LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITIES. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY
PROJECTING LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND MAINLY FAVORING THE NORTH AND EAST FA. LATEST RADAR
INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. WILL
HANDLE WITH VCSH AT CAE/CUB/OGB IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH POSSIBILITY
OF HAVING TO AMEND OGB TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PREDOMINATE MENTION IN
THE NEAR TERM. WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN...TO PRECLUDE FOG/STRATUS THREAT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 231936
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
336 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP. MODELS GIVE AFTERNOON
CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG...LIS -5/-6 AND TOTALS AROUND 45. PW VALUES
INITIALLY AROUND 1.4 INCHES BUT DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM WEST TO
LOWER PW TO 1.20 INCHES. KIS LESS THAN 30 AS MOISTURE IS MAINLY
BELOW 10 KFT. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING MAY LIFT MOISTURE ENOUGH
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST PART. SPC HAS AREA IN
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS OUTLOOK BUT IF HIGH ELEVATED CORES DEVELOP
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
BUT AGAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST. HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE BUT
IN FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST WILL KEEP 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...A 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
PLAN ON NO POPS IN THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH GFS MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODEL BLEND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. AIRMASS MODIFIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH BUT ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE FRONT
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE AIRMASS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND THE INSTABILITY INCREASES. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FROM THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY TO THE MID 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE TO
THE LOWER 60S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER IMPULSES WILL COME THROUGH LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITIES. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY
PROJECTING LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND MAINLY FAVORING THE NORTH AND EAST FA. LATEST RADAR
INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. WILL
HANDLE WITH VCSH AT CAE/CUB/OGB IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH POSSIBILITY
OF HAVING TO AMEND OGB TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PREDOMINATE MENTION IN
THE NEAR TERM. WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN...TO PRECLUDE FOG/STRATUS THREAT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 231843
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
243 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP. MODELS GIVE AFTERNOON
CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG...LIS -5/-6 AND TOTALS AROUND 45. PW VALUES
INITIALLY AROUND 1.4 INCHES BUT DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM WEST TO
LOWER PW TO 1.20 INCHES. KIS LESS THAN 30 AS MOISTURE IS MAINLY
BELOW 10 KFT. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING MAY LIFT MOISTURE ENOUGH
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST PART. SPC HAS AREA IN
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS OUTLOOK BUT IF HIGH ELEVATED CORES DEVELOP
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
BUT AGAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST. HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE BUT
IN FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST WILL KEEP 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...A 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
PLAN ON NO POPS IN THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH GFS MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODEL BLEND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. AIRMASS MODIFIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH BUT ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE FRONT
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE AIRMASS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND THE INSTABILITY INCREASES. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FROM THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY TO THE MID 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE TO
THE LOWER 60S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF SC/CU AROUND THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST
TAF SITES HAVE RETURNED TO VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT BOTH AGS/DNL
REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING
THAT CLOUD BASIS WILL RISE BETWEEN 19Z TO 20Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE AND ALONG THE
COAST. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOCAL/SPC WRF MODEL RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MODELS INDICATE A 30 KT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE BREEZE ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BREEZY WITH WINDS AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 231750
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP. MODELS GIVE AFTERNOON
CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG...LIS -5/-6 AND TOTALS AROUND 45. PW VALUES
INITIALLY AROUND 1.4 INCHES BUT DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM WEST TO
LOWER PW TO 1.20 INCHES. KIS LESS THAN 30 AS MOISTURE IS MAINLY
BELOW 10 KFT. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING MAY LIFT MOISTURE ENOUGH
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST PART. SPC HAS AREA IN
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS OUTLOOK BUT IF HIGH ELEVATED CORES DEVELOP
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
BUT AGAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST. HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE BUT
IN FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST WILL KEEP 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...A 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
PLAN ON NO POPS IN THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH GFS MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODEL BLEND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. AIRMASS MODIFIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH BUT ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE FRONT
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE AIRMASS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND THE INSTABILITY INCREASES. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE
FROM THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY TO THE MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
THE UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE TO THE LOWER 60S
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF SC/CU AROUND THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST
TAF SITES HAVE RETURNED TO VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT BOTH AGS/DNL
REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING
THAT CLOUD BASIS WILL RISE BETWEEN 19Z TO 20Z AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE AND ALONG THE
COAST. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOCAL/SPC WRF MODEL RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MODELS INDICATE A 30 KT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS UP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE BREEZE ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BREEZY WITH WINDS AVERAGE 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 231439
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1039 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TODAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PLUS
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LIMITED
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED MOISTURE BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS WITH
THE GREATER VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BASICALLY HAVE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE WEST AND 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE
EAST WITH AROUND 50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST PART. MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. WE WILL
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START SO THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARED
BETTER FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE AREA. THE
GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS
ALSO SHOWS LESS MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN H5 RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS.
BELIEVE THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW IS AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS. FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AS NEARLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z. UPPER IMPULSE
AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH/EAST OF
MOST TAF SITES. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY LATER THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 231313
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
913 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TODAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PLUS
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LIMITED
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED MOISTURE BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS WITH
THE GREATER VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. WE WILL
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START SO THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARED
BETTER FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE AREA. THE
GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS
ALSO SHOWS LESS MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN H5 RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS.
BELIEVE THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW IS AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS. FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AS NEARLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z. UPPER IMPULSE
AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH/EAST OF
MOST TAF SITES. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY LATER THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 231022
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TODAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PLUS
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LIMITED
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED MOISTURE BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS WITH
THE GREATER VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. WE WILL
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START SO THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARED
BETTER FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE AREA. THE
GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS
ALSO SHOWS LESS MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN H5 RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS.
BELIEVE THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW IS AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS. FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES ENE ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS SHOULD END BY AROUND 12Z-13Z. SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 13Z. UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WILL NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION
AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 231007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TODAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PLUS
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LIMITED
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED MOISTURE BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS WITH
THE GREATER VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. WE WILL
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START SO THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARED
BETTER FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE AREA. THE
GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS
ALSO SHOWS LESS MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN H5 RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS.
BELIEVE THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW IS AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS. FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE ENE. MOST
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE SC AND EASTERN GA. HIGH
RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS FOR
AGS/DNL UNTIL AROUND 09Z-10Z...AND 10Z-11Z AT CAE/CUB. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION PRECIP AT OGB AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUING TO INDICATE CIG RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING...IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. WILL MONITOR LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT TO IFR IF NEEDED. UPPER IMPULSE AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
SCT SHRA/TSRA. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY LATE THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 230832
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
431 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PLUS DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LIMITED COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED MOISTURE BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS WITH THE GREATER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. WE WILL
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START SO THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARED
BETTER FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE AREA. THE
GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS
ALSO SHOWS LESS MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN H5 RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS.
BELIEVE THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW IS AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS. FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE ENE. MOST
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE SC AND EASTERN GA. HIGH
RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS FOR
AGS/DNL UNTIL AROUND 09Z-10Z...AND 10Z-11Z AT CAE/CUB. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION PRECIP AT OGB AT THIS TIME.

GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUING TO INDICATE CIG RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING...IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. WILL MONITOR LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT TO IFR IF NEEDED. UPPER IMPULSE AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
SCT SHRA/TSRA. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY LATE THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 230807
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
407 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PLUS DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LIMITED COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED MOISTURE BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS WITH THE GREATER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. WE WILL
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START SO THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARED
BETTER FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE AREA. THE
GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS
ALSO SHOWS LESS MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN H5 RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS.
BELIEVE THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW IS AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS. FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE ENE. MOST
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE SC AND EASTERN GA. HIGH
RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS FOR
AGS/DNL UNTIL AROUND 09Z-10Z...OTHERWISE NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION PRECIP AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUING TO INDICATE CIG RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING...IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. WILL MONITOR LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT TO IFR IF NEEDED. UPPER IMPULSE AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
SCT SHRA/TSRA. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY LATE THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 230531
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PLUS DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LIMITED COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED MOISTURE BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS WITH THE GREATER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. WE WILL
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START SO THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARED
BETTER FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PLUS GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORTED VERY LOW POPS. EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR NORMAL
READINGS DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE ENE. MOST
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE SC...STRETCHING SW ACROSS
NE AND CENT GA. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE CSRA. WILL
MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS FOR AGS/DNL UNTIL AROUND
09Z...OTHERWISE NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION PRECIP AT THE OTHER
TAF SITES.

GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUING TO INDICATE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. WILL
MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT TO IFR IF NEEDED.
UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 230351
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1151 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH RESOLUTION WRF INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WILL DIMINISH. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER RANGING FROM 1.00 T0 1.75 INCHES. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS.
WILL RANGE POPS FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT CSRA TO 60 PERCENT NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...MODELS INDICATE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ENDING. CUT POPS AFTER 18Z FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN INCREASING
H500 HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM ACROSS
OUR FA. MOST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE
SC...STRETCHING SW ACROSS NE AND CENT GA. THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE CSRA. FOR
NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION PRECIP IN AGS/DNL TAFS...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUING TO INDICATE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. WILL
MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT TO IFR IF NEEDED.
UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 230211
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1011 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH GEORGIA INTENSIFYING PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS IN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY. LIFT ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA.
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN CSRA/PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. WILL
INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA. DECREASED POPS ACROSS REST OF REGION
WITH LITTLE FORCING FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FRONT APPROACHING LATE CANT RULE OUT A SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER RANGING FROM 1.00 T0 1.75 INCHES. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS.
WILL RANGE POPS FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT CSRA TO 60 PERCENT NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...MODELS INDICATE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ENDING. CUT POPS AFTER 18Z FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN INCREASING
H500 HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM ACROSS
OUR FA. MOST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE
SC...STRETCHING SW ACROSS NE AND CENT GA. THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE CSRA. FOR
NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION PRECIP IN AGS/DNL TAFS...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUING TO INDICATE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. WILL
MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT TO IFR IF NEEDED.
UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 230022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH GEORGIA INTENSIFYING PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS IN AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY. LIFT ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA.
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN CSRA/PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. WILL
INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA. DECREASED POPS ACROSS REST OF REGION
WITH LITTLE FORCING FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FRONT APPROACHING LATE CANT RULE OUT A SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER RANGING FROM 1.00 T0 1.75 INCHES. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST MIDLANDS.
WILL RANGE POPS FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT CSRA TO 60 PERCENT NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...MODELS INDICATE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ENDING. CUT POPS AFTER 18Z FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN INCREASING
H500 HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM ACROSS OUR FA. MOST
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE SC AND N/CENT GA. HIGH
RES MODELS INDICATE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST NEAR AN UPPER
IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST AND
APPROACHES THE FA LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING CIG RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT...IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. WILL MONITOR LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT TO IFR IF NEEDED. UPPER IMPULSE
AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW...ALONG WITH SOME TIMING
QUESTIONS...TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 222323
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
723 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LESS MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY...AND RESULTING
INSTABILITY WEAKER. SHOWERS ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE INTO MIDLANDS. STRONGER CONVECTION IN NORTH
GEORGIA/UPSTATE BUT LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO MIDLANDS. WILL CUT POPS
BACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...SLIGHT CHANCE REST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER RANGING FROM 1.00 T0 1.75 INCHES. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. WILL
RANGE POPS FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT CSRA TO 60 PERCENT NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...MODELS INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ENDING.

THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN INCREASING
H500 HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

RADAR INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM ACROSS OUR FA. MOST
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE SC AND N/CENT GA. HIGH
RES MODELS INDICATE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST NEAR AN UPPER
IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST AND
APPROACHES THE FA LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING CIG RESTRICTIONS
LATE TONIGHT...IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. WILL MONITOR LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT TO IFR IF NEEDED. UPPER IMPULSE
AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW...ALONG WITH SOME TIMING
QUESTIONS...TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 222126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
526 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LESS MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY...AND RESULTING
INSTABILITY WEAKER. SHOWERS ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT WEAKENING AS
THEY MOVE INTO MIDLANDS. STRONGER CONVECTION IN NORTH
GEORGIA/UPSTATE BUT LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO MIDLANDS. WILL CUT POPS
BACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...SLIGHT CHANCE REST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER RANGING FROM 1.00 T0 1.75 INCHES. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. WILL
RANGE POPS FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT CSRA TO 60 PERCENT NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...MODELS INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ENDING.

THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN INCREASING
H500 HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ALONG A SEA BREEZE...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN DECREASING IN THE LAST
HOUR OR SO. OTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE UPSTATE AND PORTIONS
OF N/NE GA...MOVING SLOWLY. WILL EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AND NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. OBS INDICATE MAINLY SCT CU
WITH BASES ABOVE VFR. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST NEAR AN UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE
TROUGH...WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE FA LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
INDICATING CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT...IN A CONTINUED MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW...ALONG WITH SOME TIMING QUESTIONS...TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 221829
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
229 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. CAE WSR-88D RETURNS SHOWS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE CSRA AS WELL AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SEA BREEZE. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SOME BECOMING
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND CEASE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
SHORT TERM. THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE MIDLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER RANGING FROM 1.00 T0 1.75 INCHES. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. WILL
RANGE POPS FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT CSRA TO 60 PERCENT NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...MODELS INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ENDING.

THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN INCREASING
H500 HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING FOG
HAS BURNED OFF WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING AS TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE LOWER 80S. WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
AGS/DNL WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
TOWARD THE COAST. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SOME INTENSIFYING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AGS/DNL AREA WHILE CONFIDENCE IN OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINS TOO LOW
ATTM. OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT THREAT ALSO REMAINS LOW AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PREVENTING A STRONG INVERSION
FROM DEVELOPING. FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY LATE
MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 221512
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1112 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW FOG CONTINUES TO
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP A BIT PRODUCING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING
OVER THE AREA THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE
HEAVY RAIN AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN 1.6 INCHES OR GREATER. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SEVERE
CELL IS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND NAM MOS POPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.7 OF AN INCH AND
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN WILL SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADINGS AND POSSIBLY MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING WIND. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY
BASED ON YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH
PLUS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY DIURNAL COOLING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
THE MODELS SHOW THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERING THURSDAY BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE VERY LOW POPS...BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THURSDAY AND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. FURTHER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS
VERY LOW POPS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FOG HAS ERODED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
REMAINING...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MAIN
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...HOWEVER WITH A 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA
LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MUCH OF THE STRATUS POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON AFTERNOON SHOWERS SO HAVE KEPT STRATUS OUT OF TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 221419
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LINGERING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
NAM MOS POPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.7 OF AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN WILL SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADINGS AND POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WIND. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH
PLUS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY DIURNAL COOLING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
THE MODELS SHOW THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERING THURSDAY BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE VERY LOW POPS...BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THURSDAY AND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. FURTHER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS
VERY LOW POPS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
STRATUS EXPECTED TO LIFT/DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 221046
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS HELPED CAUSE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ANY FOG BY 900 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS
POPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.7 OF AN INCH AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN WILL SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADINGS AND POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY BASED ON
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH
PLUS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY DIURNAL COOLING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
THE MODELS SHOW THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERING THURSDAY BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE VERY LOW POPS...BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THURSDAY AND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. FURTHER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS
VERY LOW POPS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND
13Z...WITH POSSIBLE LIFR AT AGS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO BURN
OFF DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 221009
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
609 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND HAS HELPED CAUSE AREAS OF
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED AT AUGUSTA AND
ORANGEBURG. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH PART
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
THE FOG BY 900 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS
POPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.7 OF AN INCH AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN WILL SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADINGS AND POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY BASED ON
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH
PLUS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY DIURNAL COOLING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
THE MODELS SHOW THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERING THURSDAY BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE VERY LOW POPS...BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THURSDAY AND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. FURTHER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS
VERY LOW POPS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND
13Z...WITH POSSIBLE LIFR AT AGS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO BURN
OFF DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ030-
     035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ063>065-
     077.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 220914
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
514 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND HAS HELPED CAUSE AREAS OF
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED AT AUGUSTA AND
ORANGEBURG. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH PART
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
THE FOG BY 900 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS
POPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.7 OF AN INCH AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN WILL SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADINGS AND POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH H5
TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY BASED ON
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH
PLUS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY DIURNAL COOLING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
THE MODELS SHOW THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERING THURSDAY BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE VERY LOW POPS...BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THURSDAY AND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. FURTHER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS
VERY LOW POPS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY.
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND
13Z...WITH POSSIBLE LIFR AT AGS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO BURN
OFF DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ030-
     035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ063>065-
     077.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 220720
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
320 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REST OF TONIGHT...CONTINUED HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LINGERING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
NAM MOS POPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.7 OF AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN WILL SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADINGS AND POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WIND. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY BASED ON
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH
PLUS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY DIURNAL COOLING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
THE MODELS SHOW THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERING THURSDAY BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE VERY LOW POPS...BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THURSDAY AND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. FURTHER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS
VERY LOW POPS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY.
EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND
13Z...WITH POSSIBLE LIFR AT AGS. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO BURN
OFF DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77


000
FXUS62 KCAE 220453
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REST OF TONIGHT...CONTINUED HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LINGERING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
NAM MOS POPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.7 OF AN INCH AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN WILL SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADINGS AND POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WIND. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY BASED ON
YESTERDAY/S VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH
PLUS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY DIURNAL COOLING AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
THE MODELS SHOW THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERING THURSDAY BUT
DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM AND GFS MOS
INDICATE VERY LOW POPS...BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THURSDAY AND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. FURTHER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS
VERY LOW POPS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL. WILL HAVE
FOG AND STRATUS IN ALL TAFS STARTING AROUND 09Z UNTIL 13Z...ALTHOUGH
LATEST OBS SUGGEST THAT IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT AGS SOONER
THAN 09Z.  STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF DURING THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH. VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$


000
FXUS62 KCAE 220111
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
911 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY LEAD TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL. WILL HAVE FOG
AND STRATUS IN ALL TAFS STARTING AROUND 09Z UNTIL 13Z. STRATUS AND
FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77


000
FXUS62 KCAE 220028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
828 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AT 2145Z INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
FOCUS NOW IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. POPS DECREASING TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL. WILL HAVE FOG
AND STRATUS IN ALL TAFS STARTING AROUND 09Z UNTIL 13Z. STRATUS AND
FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77


000
FXUS62 KCAE 212306
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
706 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AT 2145Z INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
FOCUS NOW IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. POPS DECREASING TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS MOSTLY IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE...WITH LIFR VSBYS AT AGS. CAE VWP
INDICATING 20 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS.
WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT BULK OF CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77


000
FXUS62 KCAE 212251
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AT 2145Z INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
FOCUS NOW IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. POPS DECREASING TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS MOSTLY IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE...WITH LIFR VSBYS AT AGS. CAE VWP
INDICATING 20 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS.
WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT BULK OF CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77


000
FXUS62 KCAE 212145
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
545 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AT 2145Z INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
FOCUS NOW IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. POPS DECREASING TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ENHANCE CU FIELD IN NORTH/SOUTH MOISTURE BAND SITUATED CLOSE TO
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP AID IN ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WOULD LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACTIVITY WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE CAE/CUB/OGB SITES...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES AT AGS/DNL.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL SETUP ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS
MORNING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRATUS DECK DEVELOP
AT SUNRISE. WILL HINT AT THAT IN TAFS WITH LOW SCATTERED CLOUDS.
LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ANALYZE THE LOW STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL BETTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77


000
FXUS62 KCAE 211958
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. BEST MOISTURE IS SITUATED IN A
NORTH/SOUTH BAND ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THAT
IS WHERE SATELLITE INDICATES TOWERING CU FIELD AND RADAR INDICATES
SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-
BREEZE FRONT SHOULD ALSO AID COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ENHANCE CU FIELD IN NORTH/SOUTH MOISTURE BAND SITUATED CLOSE TO
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP AID IN ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WOULD LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACTIVITY WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE CAE/CUB/OGB SITES...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES AT AGS/DNL.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL SETUP ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS
MORNING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRATUS DECK DEVELOP
AT SUNRISE. WILL HINT AT THAT IN TAFS WITH LOW SCATTERED CLOUDS.
LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ANALYZE THE LOW STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL BETTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77


000
FXUS62 KCAE 211842
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
242 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BEST
MOISTURE IS SITUATED IN A NORTH/SOUTH BAND ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND THAT IS WHERE SATELLITE INDICATES TOWERING
CU FIELD AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT SHOULD ALSO AID COVERAGE IN
THE EAST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ENHANCE CU FIELD IN NORTH/SOUTH MOISTURE BAND SITUATED CLOSE TO
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP AID IN ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WOULD LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACTIVITY WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE CAE/CUB/OGB SITES...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES AT AGS/DNL.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL SETUP ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS
MORNING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRATUS DECK DEVELOP
AT SUNRISE. WILL HINT AT THAT IN TAFS WITH LOW SCATTERED CLOUDS.
LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ANALYZE THE LOW STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL BETTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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