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000
FXUS62 KCAE 271140
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH S/W AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAVE MOVED
NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BEHIND THE FRONT.  MODEL TIME-HEIGHT
DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271140
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH S/W AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAVE MOVED
NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BEHIND THE FRONT.  MODEL TIME-HEIGHT
DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 271041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
541 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT
DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
541 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT
DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 270800
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
300 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT
DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 270800
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
300 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE SUNSHINE. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO LOWER 50S IN THE CSRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT
DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 270543
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
JUST TO OUR NORTH. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
BRIEF SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY
SUNSHINE LEADING TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRYING HAS OCCURRED
IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 270543
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
JUST TO OUR NORTH. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
BRIEF SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY
SUNSHINE LEADING TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRYING HAS OCCURRED
IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 270230
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
930 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
JUST TO OUR NORTH. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
BRIEF SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY
SUNSHINE LEADING TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRYING HAS OCCURRED
IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND
MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 270230
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
930 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
JUST TO OUR NORTH. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
BRIEF SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY
SUNSHINE LEADING TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS
30-35 KNOTS. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRYING HAS OCCURRED
IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND
MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 262325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. A QUICK
MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN PWAT LESS THAN ONE
HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY SUNSHINE LEADING
TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.  BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. THE
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRYING HAS OCCURRED
IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND
MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 262325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. A QUICK
MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN PWAT LESS THAN ONE
HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY SUNSHINE LEADING
TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.  BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. THE
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRYING HAS OCCURRED
IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND
MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH DIMINISHED MIXING AND A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 262126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
426 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. A QUICK
MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN PWAT LESS THAN ONE
HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY SUNSHINE LEADING
TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.  BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. THE
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRYING HAS OCCURRED
IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND
MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 262126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
426 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. A QUICK
MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN PWAT LESS THAN ONE
HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY SUNSHINE LEADING
TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.  BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. THE
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRYING HAS OCCURRED
IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND
MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 262126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
426 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. A QUICK
MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN PWAT LESS THAN ONE
HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY SUNSHINE LEADING
TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.  BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. THE
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRYING HAS OCCURRED
IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND
MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 262126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
426 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. A QUICK
MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN PWAT LESS THAN ONE
HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY SUNSHINE LEADING
TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.  BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. THE
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRYING HAS OCCURRED
IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. IT
WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS AND
MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 261934
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY
FROM THE REGION. A QUICK MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH
UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW
UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA CAPES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING RAIN HAS
SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW BREAKS. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY SUNSHINE LEADING
TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.  BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. THE
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW VFR. WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS.
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/HC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC







000
FXUS62 KCAE 261934
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY
FROM THE REGION. A QUICK MOVING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH
UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW
UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA CAPES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING RAIN HAS
SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW BREAKS. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NC/VA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY BEING OFFSET BY SUNSHINE LEADING
TO MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.  BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND 850MB WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. THE
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NOTICEABLE THURSDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING AROUND SUNSET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM AROUND 50
NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S IN THE CSRA.  FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LEADING TO LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A GENERALLY ZONAL WEST TO
EAST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BUT
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL INDUCE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE
FRONT AND HOW FAR IT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF NO POPS OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.  IF
THE FRONT IS TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
POTENTIAL WEDGE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY BUT AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNIFICANT ENERGY RELOADING IN A
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE
WEEK.  OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD LIKELY
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS IMPROVING TO LOW VFR. WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS.
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/HC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC








000
FXUS62 KCAE 261752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH
UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW
UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA CAPES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE PEE DEE REGION. DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE PEE DEE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. SOME CLEARING EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 261752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH
UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW
UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA CAPES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE PEE DEE REGION. DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE PEE DEE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. SOME CLEARING EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 261543
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1043 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO CSRA. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY BECOMING VFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE
RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP ALONG
THE COAST. THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY NEAR CAPE FEAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. SOME STRATO-CU POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. THE REAL CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP
KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 261543
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1043 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO CSRA. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS LATE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY BECOMING VFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE
RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP ALONG
THE COAST. THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY NEAR CAPE FEAR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. SOME STRATO-CU POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. THE REAL CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP
KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 261418
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
918 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO CSRA. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE CSRA LATE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY BECOMING VFR ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE CSRA AROUND 9
AM...THEN THE MIDLANDS BETWEEN 11 AM UNTIL 1 PM AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY
NEAR CAPE FEAR AND WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z. HOWEVER
...STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. THE REAL
CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
30 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 261418
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
918 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO CSRA. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE CSRA LATE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS SLOWLY BECOMING VFR ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE CSRA AROUND 9
AM...THEN THE MIDLANDS BETWEEN 11 AM UNTIL 1 PM AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY
NEAR CAPE FEAR AND WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z. HOWEVER
...STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. THE REAL
CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND
30 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 261149
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

LOW TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND COASTAL
GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE REMAINED BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR ALL NIGHT...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CSRA. 88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
STRETCHING FROM OCONEE COUNTY SC SOUTHWARD TO THE MACON GA AREA. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE CSRA AROUND 9 AM...THEN THE MIDLANDS BETWEEN 11 AM UNTIL 1 PM AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW CENTER IS
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SC AND WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
18Z. HOWEVER...STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY.
THE REAL CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 30 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 261149
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

LOW TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND COASTAL
GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE REMAINED BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR ALL NIGHT...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CSRA. 88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
STRETCHING FROM OCONEE COUNTY SC SOUTHWARD TO THE MACON GA AREA. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE CSRA AROUND 9 AM...THEN THE MIDLANDS BETWEEN 11 AM UNTIL 1 PM AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW CENTER IS
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SC AND WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
18Z. HOWEVER...STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY.
THE REAL CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 30 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 260812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

LOW TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE SC COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CSRA AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 260812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA STILL EXPECTED END LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS...AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT...DRAGGING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

LOW TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD
MEAN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE SC COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CSRA AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 260601
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
AND MOVING NE ACROSS N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND
3/4 INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE SC COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CSRA AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 260601
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
AND MOVING NE ACROSS N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND
3/4 INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST TAF SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE SC COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE CSRA AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 260329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
AND MOVING NE ACROSS N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND
3/4 INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
TRENDING DOWN AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING. EXPECT
IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 260329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR
REGION. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
AND MOVING NE ACROSS N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND
3/4 INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
TRENDING DOWN AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/MVFR DEVELOPING. EXPECT
IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE
AT TIMES. THE LOW CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE
THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 252336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. EMBEDDED
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THIS EVENING. 2028Z ACARS
SOUNDING AT CAE STILL INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A WEAK DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND MOVING NE ACROSS
N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3/4 TO
ONE INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE MOMENT...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE AT
TIMES. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO LOWER TO LIKELY IFR MAINLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY. THE LOW
CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR
ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 252336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN RAINFALL
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY. A DRY FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A SW UPPER FLOW FOR OUR REGION. EMBEDDED
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY THIS EVENING. 2028Z ACARS
SOUNDING AT CAE STILL INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. AT THE
SURFACE...FRONT STRETCHED OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A WEAK DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE EXISTS. SECONDARY WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND MOVING NE ACROSS
N FL AND TO THE SC COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. CONTINUED WRAP
AOUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND UPPER LIFT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3/4 TO
ONE INCH ACROSS OUR FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES PROGGED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...SO NO THUNDER MENTION FOR OUR
FA. MODEL CONSENSUS ON MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE MOMENT...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL AND
COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MODERATE AT
TIMES. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO LOWER TO LIKELY IFR MAINLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY. THE LOW
CENTER WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z TO VFR
ALTHOUGH STRATO-CU DECK POSSIBLE THROUGH END PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 251851
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CATEGORICAL POPS
TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S BUT WILL FALL
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT
MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE
50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS
TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP
INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 251851
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CATEGORICAL POPS
TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S BUT WILL FALL
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
RAIN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS
DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH OVERNIGHT
MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE
50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS
TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP
INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 251754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CATEGORICAL POPS
TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S BUT WILL FALL
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS
TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP
INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 251754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CATEGORICAL POPS
TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S BUT WILL FALL
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS
TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP
INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 251318
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. KEPT TODAY`S HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS
TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP
INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 251146
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. KEPT TODAY`S HIGH IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE
GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND OBS INDICATE
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS
GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO
BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION/LOW
CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE
INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 251146
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. KEPT TODAY`S HIGH IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST BACK INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE
GULF. A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AND OBS INDICATE
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE UPSTATE AND NRN GA. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS
GOOD SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
S/W...ACROSS SRN TX...THAT WILL HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO
BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A MENTION OF VCSH OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION/LOW
CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE
INLAND SITES. EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 250851
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. KEPT TODAY`S HIGH IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK
INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW
FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W THAT WILL
HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION.
ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AT
THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 250851
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY CROSSING THE UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. KEPT TODAY`S HIGH IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S EAST.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND MOVING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUED LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RAIN BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...SO KEPT THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA...AND THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK
INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW
FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W THAT WILL
HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION.
ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AT
THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 250602
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE
COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP TONIGHT
SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE
TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO
AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK
INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW
FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W THAT WILL
HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION.
ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AT
THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 250602
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE
COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP TONIGHT
SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE
TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO
AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MOVING IT
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK
INTO SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND OBS INDICATE THE FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WV LOOP SHOWS GOOD SW
FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN S/W THAT WILL
HELP INITIATE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE TAFS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND CLOSER TO THE REGION.
ALSO EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BECOME STEADIER DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AT
THE INLAND TAF SITES...BUT EXPECT OGB TO CONTINUE TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY...THEN MORE NORTHERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TRAVELS UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 250349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE
COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP TONIGHT
SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE
TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO
AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND LOW
CEILINGS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT OGB UNTIL 4Z. THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS SEEN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT OGB AND MVFR AT AGS AND DNL. UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
CAE AND CUB WILL FALL INTO MVFR BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST. OGB WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE RAIN STARTING AROUND 8Z FOLLOWED
BY THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AIRPORTS RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRAVELS
UP THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 250349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE
COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT IS JUST TO OUR WEST CURRENTLY. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP TONIGHT
SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE
TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO
AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND LOW
CEILINGS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT OGB UNTIL 4Z. THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS SEEN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT OGB AND MVFR AT AGS AND DNL. UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
CAE AND CUB WILL FALL INTO MVFR BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST. OGB WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE RAIN STARTING AROUND 8Z FOLLOWED
BY THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AIRPORTS RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRAVELS
UP THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 250216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH LI VALUES NEAR -1. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND LOW
CEILINGS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT OGB UNTIL 4Z. THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS SEEN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT OGB AND MVFR AT AGS AND DNL. UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
CAE AND CUB WILL FALL INTO MVFR BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST. OGB WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE RAIN STARTING AROUND 8Z FOLLOWED
BY THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AIRPORTS RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRAVELS
UP THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 250216
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH LI VALUES NEAR -1. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE AND LOW
CEILINGS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT OGB UNTIL 4Z. THE MAIN
ISSUE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOW CEILINGS. THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS SEEN MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS AT OGB AND MVFR AT AGS AND DNL. UNSURE AT THIS TIME WHETHER
CAE AND CUB WILL FALL INTO MVFR BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST. OGB WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE RAIN STARTING AROUND 8Z FOLLOWED
BY THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA AIRPORTS RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE LOW TRAVELS
UP THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 242323
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH LI VALUES NEAR -1. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE TROF
STALLS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT OGB AND
WILL MENTION IN TAF AFTER 12Z. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR AGS AND
DNL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 242323
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
623 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. AN ISOLATED
CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS WITH LI VALUES NEAR -1. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE TROF
STALLS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT OGB AND
WILL MENTION IN TAF AFTER 12Z. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR AGS AND
DNL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS WILL TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE TROF
STALLS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT OGB AND
WILL MENTION IN TAF AFTER 12Z. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR AGS AND
DNL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241847
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE COAST.
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS WILL TONIGHT WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT DUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO IFR RANGE AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE TROF
STALLS OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT OGB AND
WILL MENTION IN TAF AFTER 12Z. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR AGS AND
DNL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241615
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
GIVEN OUR WARM START THIS MORNING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP AND OBS INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OF
SC. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS. ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH
MORE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CSRA.  WV LOOP
CONTINUES TO TRY AND BACK THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY A VCSH AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND GUIDANCE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HAPPEN SOONER...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO BRING UP CONDITIONS FASTER.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H8/H5 WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A FOG THREAT...WHICH GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW...BUT MORE OF A STRATUS THREAT WHICH GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE.
LOWERED CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS62 KCAE 241615
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
GIVEN OUR WARM START THIS MORNING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP AND OBS INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OF
SC. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS. ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH
MORE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CSRA.  WV LOOP
CONTINUES TO TRY AND BACK THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY A VCSH AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND GUIDANCE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HAPPEN SOONER...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO BRING UP CONDITIONS FASTER.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H8/H5 WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A FOG THREAT...WHICH GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW...BUT MORE OF A STRATUS THREAT WHICH GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE.
LOWERED CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241555
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
GIVEN OUR WARM START THIS MORNING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP AND OBS INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OF
SC. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS. ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH
MORE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CSRA.  WV LOOP
CONTINUES TO TRY AND BACK THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY A VCSH AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND GUIDANCE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HAPPEN SOONER...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO BRING UP CONDITIONS FASTER.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H8/H5 WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A FOG THREAT...WHICH GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW...BUT MORE OF A STRATUS THREAT WHICH GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE.
LOWERED CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241555
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
GIVEN OUR WARM START THIS MORNING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING BACK INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
INCREASING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CENTRAL SC AND ERN GA WILL BE DRY. COLDER
AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR THE LONGER TERM.  ONCE WE GET
INTO THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN
AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP AND OBS INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OF
SC. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS. ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH
MORE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CSRA.  WV LOOP
CONTINUES TO TRY AND BACK THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY A VCSH AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND GUIDANCE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HAPPEN SOONER...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO BRING UP CONDITIONS FASTER.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H8/H5 WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A FOG THREAT...WHICH GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW...BUT MORE OF A STRATUS THREAT WHICH GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE.
LOWERED CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS62 KCAE 241431
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
GIVEN OUR WARM START THIS MORNING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP AND OBS INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OF
SC. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS. ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH
MORE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CSRA.  WV LOOP
CONTINUES TO TRY AND BACK THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY A VCSH AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND GUIDANCE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HAPPEN SOONER...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO BRING UP CONDITIONS FASTER.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H8/H5 WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A FOG THREAT...WHICH GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW...BUT MORE OF A STRATUS THREAT WHICH GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE.
LOWERED CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241431
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL
NEAR THE COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ADDING SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TONIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR
MINUS 3. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
GIVEN OUR WARM START THIS MORNING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL SHOULD STILL BE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. WITH THE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS INCREASING...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK DOWN FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT. AS THE
LOW DEVELOPS...MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AND COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONCE WE GET INTO THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS QUIET
DOWN AND DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...AND THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP AND OBS INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN GA INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE OF
SC. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS. ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH
MORE SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CSRA.  WV LOOP
CONTINUES TO TRY AND BACK THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CARRY A VCSH AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND GUIDANCE NOT VERY
OPTIMISTIC WITH CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HAPPEN SOONER...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO BRING UP CONDITIONS FASTER.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG H8/H5 WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...GUIDANCE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WOULD EXPECT LESS OF A FOG THREAT...WHICH GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW...BUT MORE OF A STRATUS THREAT WHICH GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE.
LOWERED CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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