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000
FXUS62 KCAE 011732
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MID
LEVEL CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...AROUND 70...APPEAR ON TARGET AND
ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY ARMS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011732
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MID
LEVEL CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...AROUND 70...APPEAR ON TARGET AND
ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA MOVING NORTHEAST...AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...ALONG COASTAL
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR FA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR
FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT CHANCE
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK. TEMPERATURES WARMING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SIMILAR WITH 00Z ECMWF WITH SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES/CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE POP GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY MONDAY BUT ECMWF
WEAKER AND MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY ARMS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB FROM ABOUT 09Z THROUGH 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG. BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 011447
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A PATCH OF STRATOCU DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
STARTED TO MIX OUT...WHILE OTHER STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL THINK THE INVERSION WILL
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH IT...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE 00Z RUN OF
THE WRF-NMM. TEMPS LOOK OK.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SE
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 011447
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A PATCH OF STRATOCU DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
STARTED TO MIX OUT...WHILE OTHER STRATOCU HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. STILL THINK THE INVERSION WILL
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH IT...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE 00Z RUN OF
THE WRF-NMM. TEMPS LOOK OK.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SE
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 010903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 010903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 010903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 010903
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A RELATIVE DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 010547
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPEPR RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SE
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREAEE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUIGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING AT AGS/OGB AND EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
THROUGH 14Z. SHOULD SEE FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OTHER TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...CALM
WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 010547
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPEPR RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SE
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREAEE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUIGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING AT AGS/OGB AND EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
THROUGH 14Z. SHOULD SEE FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OTHER TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...CALM
WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 010547
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPEPR RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SE
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREAEE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUIGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING AT AGS/OGB AND EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
THROUGH 14Z. SHOULD SEE FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OTHER TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...CALM
WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 010547
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT A
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS.
INDICATIONS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SPELL
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FURTHER OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. UPEPR RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SE
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHILE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER
THE MIDWEST. UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA PROGGED TO CONTINUE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA). MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN OVER
OUR FA...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREAEE IN MOISTURE NOTED SOUTH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AND CAPPED
CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA...APPEARING TO SUPPRESS THUNDER...THOUGH
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING PREMISE FOR SOME
SHALLOW DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN
GULF...WHILE MIDWEST CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS SE TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH APPEARS
WILL GET SUPPRESSED AND EJECTED TO THE EAST/SE...REMAINING SOUTH
OF OUR FA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR APPEARS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA...THOUIGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED. SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY DIURNAL POPS APPEARS OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
31/12Z ECMWF SHIFTS UPPER CLOSED LOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE 01/00Z GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST BUT INDICATES UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING WEST INTO OUR REGION. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION WITH AN EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ACCEPT BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING FORECAST WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATES CHANCE POPS...AND MAX TEMPS TRENDING DOWN
SOME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING AT AGS/OGB AND EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
THROUGH 14Z. SHOULD SEE FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OTHER TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...CALM
WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 010423
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1223 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT RAIN. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING AT AGS/OGB AND EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
THROUGH 14Z. SHOULD SEE FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OTHER TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...CALM
WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 010423
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1223 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT RAIN. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING AT AGS/OGB AND EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
THROUGH 14Z. SHOULD SEE FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OTHER TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...CALM
WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 010423
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1223 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT RAIN. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING AT AGS/OGB AND EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
THROUGH 14Z. SHOULD SEE FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OTHER TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...CALM
WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 010219
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT RAIN. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER ATMOSPHERE MOVING SOUTH INTO REGION HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS EVENING. ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL PRODUCE MVFR
VSBYS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT AGS BETWEEN 10Z-12Z.
WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WE CAN
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 010219
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BECAUSE OF THE RECENT RAIN. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER ATMOSPHERE MOVING SOUTH INTO REGION HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS EVENING. ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL PRODUCE MVFR
VSBYS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT AGS BETWEEN 10Z-12Z.
WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WE CAN
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 312324
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
723 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER ATMOSPHERE MOVING SOUTH INTO REGION HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS EVENING. ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL PRODUCE MVFR
VSBYS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT AGS BETWEEN 10Z-12Z.
WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WE CAN
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY 14Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 312024
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
424 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER ATMOSPHERE MOVING SOUTH INTO REGION HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CSRA. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR AFT 20Z MOST AREAS AND BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE BY 22Z.
SOME FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR
VSBYS AT AGS BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WE CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 312024
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
424 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER ATMOSPHERE MOVING SOUTH INTO REGION HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CSRA. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR AFT 20Z MOST AREAS AND BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE BY 22Z.
SOME FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR
VSBYS AT AGS BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WE CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 312024
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
424 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER ATMOSPHERE MOVING SOUTH INTO REGION HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CSRA. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR AFT 20Z MOST AREAS AND BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE BY 22Z.
SOME FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR
VSBYS AT AGS BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WE CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 312024
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
424 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS
SHOW H5 RIDGING BUILDING TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK. WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER ATMOSPHERE MOVING SOUTH INTO REGION HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS
OVER THE MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CSRA. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR AFT 20Z MOST AREAS AND BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE BY 22Z.
SOME FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR
VSBYS AT AGS BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROF OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WE CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 311734
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATPIX SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO THE FA ERODING CLOUDS AND
LETTING IN THE SUN. MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE TO OFFER THROUGH THE
NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE BUT WILL BURN OFF BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER ARMS MOVING SOUTH INTO REGION HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS OVER
THE MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CSRA. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR AFT 20Z MOST AREAS AND BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE BY 22Z. SOME FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT
AGS BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK WE CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 311734
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATPIX SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO THE FA ERODING CLOUDS AND
LETTING IN THE SUN. MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE TO OFFER THROUGH THE
NIGHT TIME PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE BUT WILL BURN OFF BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE MIDWEST. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH DURING THE
PERIOD. DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST/EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE RISING POPS.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER ARMS MOVING SOUTH INTO REGION HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS OVER
THE MIDLANDS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CSRA. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR AFT 20Z MOST AREAS AND BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE BY 22Z. SOME FOG
TOWARD DAYBREAK WILL PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT
AGS BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK WE CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING WITH FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 311027
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH SWRN NC AND NWRN SC. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN SC...WITH
A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE ACTIVITY. MAY STILL SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...THEN POSSIBLY A BREAK IN
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WITH GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING NORTH...AND MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE NAM ALTHOUGH BOTH SHOW THE THE BEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL ACROSS THE SC COASTAL PLAIN. THIS BAND LOOKS TO
BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS TIME MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS EAST
OF ALL TAF SITES. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS/VSBYS REMAINING MVFR/IFR
THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS...WILL NOT PLACE ANY
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 311027
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH SWRN NC AND NWRN SC. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN SC...WITH
A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE ACTIVITY. MAY STILL SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...THEN POSSIBLY A BREAK IN
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WITH GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING NORTH...AND MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE NAM ALTHOUGH BOTH SHOW THE THE BEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL ACROSS THE SC COASTAL PLAIN. THIS BAND LOOKS TO
BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS TIME MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS EAST
OF ALL TAF SITES. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS/VSBYS REMAINING MVFR/IFR
THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS...WILL NOT PLACE ANY
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 311027
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH SWRN NC AND NWRN SC. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN SC...WITH
A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE ACTIVITY. MAY STILL SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...THEN POSSIBLY A BREAK IN
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. THERE APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WITH GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING NORTH...AND MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE NAM ALTHOUGH BOTH SHOW THE THE BEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL ACROSS THE SC COASTAL PLAIN. THIS BAND LOOKS TO
BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS TIME MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS EAST
OF ALL TAF SITES. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS/VSBYS REMAINING MVFR/IFR
THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS...WILL NOT PLACE ANY
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 310831
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
431 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH SWRN NC AND NWRN SC. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EAST-CENTRAL
SC...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE LINE. THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD. WILL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS THE NEXT FEW HOURS EAST...AND CHANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE...THEN GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS
MORNING. WITH CLOUDY SKIES DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WITH GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING NORTH...AND MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE NAM ALTHOUGH BOTH SHOW THE THE BEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS BAND LOOKS
TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS TIME MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS
NOW EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS/VSBYS
REMAINING OR LOWERING INTO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 310831
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
431 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH SWRN NC AND NWRN SC. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EAST-CENTRAL
SC...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE LINE. THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD. WILL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS THE NEXT FEW HOURS EAST...AND CHANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE...THEN GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS
MORNING. WITH CLOUDY SKIES DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WITH GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING NORTH...AND MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE NAM ALTHOUGH BOTH SHOW THE THE BEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS BAND LOOKS
TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS TIME MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS
NOW EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS/VSBYS
REMAINING OR LOWERING INTO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 310639
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH SWRN NC AND NWRN SC. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EAST-CENTRAL
SC...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE LINE. THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD. WILL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS THE NEXT FEW HOURS EAST...AND CHANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE...THEN GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS
MORNING. WITH CLOUDY SKIES DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WITH GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING NORTH...AND MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS BAND LOOKS
TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS TIME MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS
NOW EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS/VSBYS
REMAINING OR LOWERING INTO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 310639
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH SWRN NC AND NWRN SC. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EAST-CENTRAL
SC...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE LINE. THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD. WILL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS THE NEXT FEW HOURS EAST...AND CHANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE...THEN GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS
MORNING. WITH CLOUDY SKIES DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WITH GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING NORTH...AND MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS BAND LOOKS
TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS TIME MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS
NOW EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS/VSBYS
REMAINING OR LOWERING INTO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 310639
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH SWRN NC AND NWRN SC. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EAST-CENTRAL
SC...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE LINE. THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD. WILL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS THE NEXT FEW HOURS EAST...AND CHANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE...THEN GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS
MORNING. WITH CLOUDY SKIES DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WITH GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING NORTH...AND MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS BAND LOOKS
TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS TIME MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS
NOW EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS/VSBYS
REMAINING OR LOWERING INTO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 310639
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH SWRN NC AND NWRN SC. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EAST-CENTRAL
SC...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE LINE. THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD. WILL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS THE NEXT FEW HOURS EAST...AND CHANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE...THEN GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS
MORNING. WITH CLOUDY SKIES DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WITH GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING NORTH...AND MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS BAND LOOKS
TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS TIME MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS
NOW EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS/VSBYS
REMAINING OR LOWERING INTO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 310255
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST GA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

GIVEN CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ONLY A FEW MORE
DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS S/W MOVING WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THIS BAND
LOOKS TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 1 AM TO 2 AM...THEN EXPECT
CEILINGS/VSBYS TO LOWER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 310255
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST GA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

GIVEN CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ONLY A FEW MORE
DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS S/W MOVING WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THIS BAND
LOOKS TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 1 AM TO 2 AM...THEN EXPECT
CEILINGS/VSBYS TO LOWER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 310255
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST GA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

GIVEN CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ONLY A FEW MORE
DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS S/W MOVING WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THIS BAND
LOOKS TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 1 AM TO 2 AM...THEN EXPECT
CEILINGS/VSBYS TO LOWER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 302359
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
BROUGHT A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CROSSING THE CSRA AND THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS. WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS S/W MOVING WEST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING ALONG WITH
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS/IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXPECT CEILINGS/VSBYS TO
LOWER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302359
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
BROUGHT A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CROSSING THE CSRA AND THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS. WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS S/W MOVING WEST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING ALONG WITH
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS/IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXPECT CEILINGS/VSBYS TO
LOWER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 302359
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
BROUGHT A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CROSSING THE CSRA AND THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS. WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS S/W MOVING WEST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING ALONG WITH
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS/IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXPECT CEILINGS/VSBYS TO
LOWER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302234
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
BROUGHT A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CROSSING THE CSRA AND THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS. WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATPIX CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THE EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 302234
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
BROUGHT A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CROSSING THE CSRA AND THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS. WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATPIX CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THE EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 302234
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
BROUGHT A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CROSSING THE CSRA AND THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS. WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATPIX CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THE EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 302234
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
BROUGHT A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CROSSING THE CSRA AND THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE MIDLANDS. WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATPIX CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THE EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 301809
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS KEEP DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE FA. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL
TRIGGER PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATPIX
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IN CENTRAL GA HEADING INTO THE
CSRA SO FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPS DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ADVECTING NORTHWARD. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 80S IN THE CSRA.
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FA WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATPIX CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THE EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 301809
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS KEEP DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE FA. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL
TRIGGER PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATPIX
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IN CENTRAL GA HEADING INTO THE
CSRA SO FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPS DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ADVECTING NORTHWARD. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 80S IN THE CSRA.
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FA WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATPIX CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THE EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 301809
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS KEEP DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE FA. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL
TRIGGER PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATPIX
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IN CENTRAL GA HEADING INTO THE
CSRA SO FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPS DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ADVECTING NORTHWARD. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 80S IN THE CSRA.
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FA WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATPIX CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THE EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 301754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS KEEP DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE FA. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL
TRIGGER PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATPIX
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IN CENTRAL GA HEADING INTO THE
CSRA SO FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPS DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ADVECTING NORTHWARD. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 80S IN THE CSRA.
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FA WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATPIX CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THE EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 301754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS KEEP DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE FA. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL
TRIGGER PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATPIX
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IN CENTRAL GA HEADING INTO THE
CSRA SO FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPS DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ADVECTING NORTHWARD. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 80S IN THE CSRA.
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FA WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATPIX CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THE EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 301754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS KEEP DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE FA. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL
TRIGGER PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATPIX
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IN CENTRAL GA HEADING INTO THE
CSRA SO FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPS DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ADVECTING NORTHWARD. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 80S IN THE CSRA.
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FA WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATPIX CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THE EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 301754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS KEEP DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE FA. SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL
TRIGGER PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATPIX
SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST IN CENTRAL GA HEADING INTO THE
CSRA SO FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPS DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ADVECTING NORTHWARD. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 80S IN THE CSRA.
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SOME
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FA WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATPIX CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH 03Z THE EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH IFR CIGS AND VFR/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 301036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR STILL BEING INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE
TRYING TO SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
LOW-COUNTRY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WHERE CURRENT RAINFALL CURRENTLY IS
OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE DAY...AND WITH THE EXPECTED
AREAS OF RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES...WITH MOST NUMBERS SHOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S... AND HAVE TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP AS
RAINFALL BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS.
EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE CURRENT PRECIP MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS
TAF SITES. SHOULD BE RAINING LIGHTLY AT ALL SITES BY 12Z. CURRENTLY
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...AND HAVE BROUGHT CEILINGS
DOWN INTO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 301036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR STILL BEING INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE
TRYING TO SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
LOW-COUNTRY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WHERE CURRENT RAINFALL CURRENTLY IS
OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE DAY...AND WITH THE EXPECTED
AREAS OF RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES...WITH MOST NUMBERS SHOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S... AND HAVE TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP AS
RAINFALL BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS.
EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE CURRENT PRECIP MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS
TAF SITES. SHOULD BE RAINING LIGHTLY AT ALL SITES BY 12Z. CURRENTLY
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH
THE DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...AND HAVE BROUGHT CEILINGS
DOWN INTO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300852
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
452 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR STILL BEING INDICATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND AREAS NORTH...WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND LOW-COUNTRY.
MAJORITY OF THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SPRINKLES AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE GOING SLIGHTLY LOWER ON POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE DAY...AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AREAS OF RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES...WITH MOST NUMBERS
SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S... AND HAVE TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS STILL REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL.
EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BY 08Z AT AGS/DNL...AND AFTER 14Z
AT THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300852
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
452 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR STILL BEING INDICATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND AREAS NORTH...WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND LOW-COUNTRY.
MAJORITY OF THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SPRINKLES AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE GOING SLIGHTLY LOWER ON POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE DAY...AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AREAS OF RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES...WITH MOST NUMBERS
SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S... AND HAVE TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS STILL REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL.
EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BY 08Z AT AGS/DNL...AND AFTER 14Z
AT THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300617
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR STILL BEING INDICATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND AREAS NORTH...WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND LOW-COUNTRY.
MAJORITY OF THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SPRINKLES AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE GOING SLIGHTLY LOWER ON POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE DAY...AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AREAS OF RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES...WITH MOST NUMBERS
SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S... AND HAVE TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER
ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS
WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION
FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL
REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS STILL REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL.
EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BY 08Z AT AGS/DNL...AND AFTER 14Z
AT THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300617
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR STILL BEING INDICATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND AREAS NORTH...WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND LOW-COUNTRY.
MAJORITY OF THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SPRINKLES AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE GOING SLIGHTLY LOWER ON POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE DAY...AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AREAS OF RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES...WITH MOST NUMBERS
SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S... AND HAVE TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER
ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS
WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION
FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL
REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS STILL REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL.
EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BY 08Z AT AGS/DNL...AND AFTER 14Z
AT THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300617
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR STILL BEING INDICATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND AREAS NORTH...WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND LOW-COUNTRY.
MAJORITY OF THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SPRINKLES AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE GOING SLIGHTLY LOWER ON POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE DAY...AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AREAS OF RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES...WITH MOST NUMBERS
SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S... AND HAVE TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER
ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS
WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION
FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL
REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS STILL REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL.
EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BY 08Z AT AGS/DNL...AND AFTER 14Z
AT THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300617
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR STILL BEING INDICATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND AREAS NORTH...WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND LOW-COUNTRY.
MAJORITY OF THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SPRINKLES AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE GOING SLIGHTLY LOWER ON POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE DAY...AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AREAS OF RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES...WITH MOST NUMBERS
SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S... AND HAVE TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER
ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS
WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION
FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL
REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS STILL REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL.
EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BY 08Z AT AGS/DNL...AND AFTER 14Z
AT THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300328
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1128 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DEW POINTS GENERALLY
GREATER THAN 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE
GA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND LOWCOUNTRY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER BUT STILL LIFTING UPPER
ENERGY NE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE WITH IT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE S/SW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL STILL
TRY TO HANG TOUGH TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH POPS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS...FAVORING BEST POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREA SUNDAY. ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO
THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE
ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL. 88D
REGIONAL COMPOSITE HAS SHOWN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONFINED ALONG THE
COAST...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS SRN GA/FL. EXPECT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR OGB/AGS/DNL FROM 18Z-19Z THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300328
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1128 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DEW POINTS GENERALLY
GREATER THAN 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE
GA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND LOWCOUNTRY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER BUT STILL LIFTING UPPER
ENERGY NE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE WITH IT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE S/SW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL STILL
TRY TO HANG TOUGH TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH POPS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS...FAVORING BEST POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREA SUNDAY. ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO
THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE
ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL. 88D
REGIONAL COMPOSITE HAS SHOWN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONFINED ALONG THE
COAST...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS SRN GA/FL. EXPECT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR OGB/AGS/DNL FROM 18Z-19Z THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300231
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE...AND CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DEW POINTS GENERALLY GREATER
THAN 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE GA AS WELL AS THE
SC LOWCOUNTRY. SPC SREF KEEPS FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE CSRA INTO THIS EVENING. POPS SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER BUT STILL LIFTING UPPER
ENERGY NE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE WITH IT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE S/SW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL STILL
TRY TO HANG TOUGH TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH POPS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS...FAVORING BEST POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREA SUNDAY. ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO
THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE
ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL. 88D
REGIONAL COMPOSITE HAS SHOWN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONFINED ALONG THE
COAST...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS SRN GA/FL. EXPECT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR OGB/AGS/DNL FROM 18Z-19Z THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300231
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE...AND CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DEW POINTS GENERALLY GREATER
THAN 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE GA AS WELL AS THE
SC LOWCOUNTRY. SPC SREF KEEPS FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE CSRA INTO THIS EVENING. POPS SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER BUT STILL LIFTING UPPER
ENERGY NE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE WITH IT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE S/SW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL STILL
TRY TO HANG TOUGH TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH POPS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS...FAVORING BEST POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREA SUNDAY. ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO
THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE
ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL. 88D
REGIONAL COMPOSITE HAS SHOWN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONFINED ALONG THE
COAST...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS SRN GA/FL. EXPECT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR OGB/AGS/DNL FROM 18Z-19Z THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300231
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE...AND CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DEW POINTS GENERALLY GREATER
THAN 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE GA AS WELL AS THE
SC LOWCOUNTRY. SPC SREF KEEPS FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE CSRA INTO THIS EVENING. POPS SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER BUT STILL LIFTING UPPER
ENERGY NE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE WITH IT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE S/SW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL STILL
TRY TO HANG TOUGH TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH POPS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS...FAVORING BEST POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREA SUNDAY. ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO
THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE
ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL. 88D
REGIONAL COMPOSITE HAS SHOWN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONFINED ALONG THE
COAST...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS SRN GA/FL. EXPECT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR OGB/AGS/DNL FROM 18Z-19Z THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300231
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE...AND CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DEW POINTS GENERALLY GREATER
THAN 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE GA AS WELL AS THE
SC LOWCOUNTRY. SPC SREF KEEPS FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE CSRA INTO THIS EVENING. POPS SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER BUT STILL LIFTING UPPER
ENERGY NE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE WITH IT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE S/SW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL STILL
TRY TO HANG TOUGH TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH POPS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS...FAVORING BEST POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREA SUNDAY. ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO
THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE
ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL REGENERATE. FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL. 88D
REGIONAL COMPOSITE HAS SHOWN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONFINED ALONG THE
COAST...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS SRN GA/FL. EXPECT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR OGB/AGS/DNL FROM 18Z-19Z THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 292351
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE...AND CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DEW POINTS GENERALLY GREATER
THAN 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE GA AS WELL AS THE
SC LOWCOUNTRY. SPC SREF KEEPS FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE CSRA INTO THIS EVENING. POPS SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER BUT STILL LIFTING UPPER
ENERGY NE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS
SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE WITH IT INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE S/SW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL STILL
TRY TO HANG TOUGH TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH POPS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS...FAVORING BEST POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FA SUNDAY. MONDAY...W ATL UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR SE BUILDS SOME TOWARDS THE SE COAST AS UPPER ENERGY LIFTS
OUT TO OUR N...WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTING WEST
SOME TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION
FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW INTO THE E
GULF...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL
REGENERATE. FOR OUR REGION...APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LEADING TO EXPECTATIONS OF SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD SOME TOWARDS THE SE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES
WITH REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE
ERIKA...AS IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE E GULF AND DRIFT
NORTH. FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS
AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL. 88D
REGIONAL COMPOSITE HAS SHOWN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONFINED ALONG THE
COAST...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS SRN GA/FL. EXPECT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR OGB/AGS/DNL FROM 18Z-19Z THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 292351
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MAIN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE...AND CUTOFF LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH/DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER. DEW POINTS GENERALLY GREATER
THAN 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE GA AS WELL AS THE
SC LOWCOUNTRY. SPC SREF KEEPS FORECAST AREA MAINLY DRY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE CSRA INTO THIS EVENING. POPS SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER BUT STILL LIFTING UPPER
ENERGY NE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS
SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE WITH IT INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE S/SW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL STILL
TRY TO HANG TOUGH TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH POPS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS...FAVORING BEST POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FA SUNDAY. MONDAY...W ATL UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR SE BUILDS SOME TOWARDS THE SE COAST AS UPPER ENERGY LIFTS
OUT TO OUR N...WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTING WEST
SOME TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION
FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW INTO THE E
GULF...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL
REGENERATE. FOR OUR REGION...APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LEADING TO EXPECTATIONS OF SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD SOME TOWARDS THE SE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES
WITH REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE
ERIKA...AS IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE E GULF AND DRIFT
NORTH. FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS
AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL. 88D
REGIONAL COMPOSITE HAS SHOWN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONFINED ALONG THE
COAST...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS SRN GA/FL. EXPECT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY
BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR OGB/AGS/DNL FROM 18Z-19Z THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$







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