000
FXUS62 KCAE 220111
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
911 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY LEAD TO
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL. WILL HAVE FOG
AND STRATUS IN ALL TAFS STARTING AROUND 09Z UNTIL 13Z. STRATUS AND
FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77

000
FXUS62 KCAE 220028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
828 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AT 2145Z INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
FOCUS NOW IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. POPS DECREASING TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL. WILL HAVE FOG
AND STRATUS IN ALL TAFS STARTING AROUND 09Z UNTIL 13Z. STRATUS AND
FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77

000
FXUS62 KCAE 212306
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
706 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AT 2145Z INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
FOCUS NOW IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. POPS DECREASING TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS MOSTLY IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE...WITH LIFR VSBYS AT AGS. CAE VWP
INDICATING 20 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS.
WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT BULK OF CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77

000
FXUS62 KCAE 212251
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AT 2145Z INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
FOCUS NOW IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. POPS DECREASING TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS MOSTLY IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE...WITH LIFR VSBYS AT AGS. CAE VWP
INDICATING 20 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS.
WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT BULK OF CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77

000
FXUS62 KCAE 212145
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
545 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AT 2145Z INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
FOCUS NOW IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. POPS DECREASING TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ENHANCE CU FIELD IN NORTH/SOUTH MOISTURE BAND SITUATED CLOSE TO
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP AID IN ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WOULD LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACTIVITY WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE CAE/CUB/OGB SITES...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES AT AGS/DNL.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL SETUP ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS
MORNING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRATUS DECK DEVELOP
AT SUNRISE. WILL HINT AT THAT IN TAFS WITH LOW SCATTERED CLOUDS.
LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ANALYZE THE LOW STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL BETTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77

000
FXUS62 KCAE 211958
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. BEST MOISTURE IS SITUATED IN A
NORTH/SOUTH BAND ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THAT
IS WHERE SATELLITE INDICATES TOWERING CU FIELD AND RADAR INDICATES
SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-
BREEZE FRONT SHOULD ALSO AID COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ENHANCE CU FIELD IN NORTH/SOUTH MOISTURE BAND SITUATED CLOSE TO
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP AID IN ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WOULD LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACTIVITY WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE CAE/CUB/OGB SITES...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES AT AGS/DNL.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL SETUP ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS
MORNING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRATUS DECK DEVELOP
AT SUNRISE. WILL HINT AT THAT IN TAFS WITH LOW SCATTERED CLOUDS.
LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ANALYZE THE LOW STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL BETTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77

000
FXUS62 KCAE 211842
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
242 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BEST
MOISTURE IS SITUATED IN A NORTH/SOUTH BAND ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND THAT IS WHERE SATELLITE INDICATES TOWERING
CU FIELD AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT SHOULD ALSO AID COVERAGE IN
THE EAST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT CAUSING STANDING WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF FROPA INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BEST
HEATING OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. PWAT VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES APPEARING FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER. BY MONDAY THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NC
WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM WHICH CURRENTLY KEEPS THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ENHANCE CU FIELD IN NORTH/SOUTH MOISTURE BAND SITUATED CLOSE TO
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP AID IN ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WOULD LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACTIVITY WOULD FALL
ACROSS THE CAE/CUB/OGB SITES...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES AT AGS/DNL.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL SETUP ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS
MORNING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STRATUS DECK DEVELOP
AT SUNRISE. WILL HINT AT THAT IN TAFS WITH LOW SCATTERED CLOUDS.
LATER SHIFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ANALYZE THE LOW STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL BETTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 211151
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS LATER IN THE MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
PART EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE EAST
PART CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA- BREEZE FRONT
SHOULD ALSO AID COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE NAM GENERALLY INDICATES
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERATE MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO USED
THE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS SHOW
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING FARTHER EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PLUS OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS MOSTLY IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE...WITH LIFR VSBYS AT AGS. CAE VWP
INDICATING 20 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS.
WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT BULK OF CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 211028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRATUS AND
AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PART
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE EAST
PART CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
SHOULD ALSO AID COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE NAM GENERALLY INDICATES
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERATE MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO USED
THE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS SHOW
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING FARTHER EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PLUS OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS MOSTLY IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE...WITH LIFR VSBYS AT AGS. CAE VWP
INDICATING 20 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS.
WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT BULK OF CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SOME MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 210755
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
355 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRATUS AND
AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE EAST
PART CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
SHOULD ALSO AID COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE NAM GENERALLY INDICATES
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERATE MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO USED
THE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS SHOW
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING FARTHER EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PLUS OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS MOSTLY IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH AGS/DNL REMAIN VFR.
CAE VWP INDICATING 25-30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT SOME FOG
TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME AS TO HOW LOW CIGS WILL GO. ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MODEL DATA SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT BULK OF
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 210720
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
320 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRATUS AND
AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT SHOULD ALSO AID COVERAGE IN
THE EAST PART. CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE NAM
GENERALLY INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S WHICH IS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERATE MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO USED
THE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS SHOW
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING FARTHER EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PLUS OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS MOSTLY IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH AGS/DNL REMAIN VFR.
CAE VWP INDICATING 25-30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT SOME FOG
TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME AS TO HOW LOW CIGS WILL GO. ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS. WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MODEL DATA SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT BULK OF
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 210600
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRATUS AND
AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT SHOULD ALSO AID COVERAGE IN
THE EAST PART. CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE NAM
GENERALLY INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S WHICH IS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERATE MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO USED
THE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS SHOW
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING FARTHER EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PLUS OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAINING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT AS STRONG AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL SO FOG FIGURES TO BE A MORE FAVORED
THREAT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z-09Z. WILL INCLUDE
SOME IFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB AND POSSIBLE THEY COULD OCCUR AT CAE
09Z-12Z. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
BUT GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN GREAT AS OF LATE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS.
WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT BULK OF CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 210437
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1237 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE TODAY. A MOIST SOUTH FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE PLUS HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART CLOSER TO THE
TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT SHOULD ALSO AID
COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART. SOME CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THE NAM GENERALLY INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 80S WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SHOW CONSIDERATE MOISTURE IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. ALSO USED
THE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS SHOW
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING FARTHER EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PLUS OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAINING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT AS STRONG AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL SO FOG FIGURES TO BE A MORE FAVORED
THREAT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z-09Z. WILL INCLUDE
SOME IFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB AND POSSIBLE THEY COULD OCCUR AT CAE
09Z-12Z. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
BUT GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN GREAT AS OF LATE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS.
WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MODEL
DATA SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT BULK OF CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 210211
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1011 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL US DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN US ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PEE DEE OTHERWISE POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
REST OF NIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING INVERSION AND WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EAST WILL LIMIT
FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CURRENT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY.
THEN A STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES...EXPECT TYPICAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MOSTLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE...ALONG
WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY GOING
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING EAST OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE FLOW ALSO OUT OF THE NORTH.  THIS
LEADS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT SHOULD THIN LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET
IS NOT AS STRONG TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL
SO FOG FIGURES TO BE A MORE FAVORED THREAT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT SOME FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z-09Z. WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB
AND POSSIBLE THEY COULD OCCUR AT CAE 09Z-12Z. CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT GUIDANCE HAS NOT
BEEN GREAT AS OF LATE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 202359
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL US DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN US ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INTO THE LOW COUNTRY
ALONG AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...SO CUT POPS WAY BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CHANCE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING INVERSION AND WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CURRENT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY.
THEN A STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES...EXPECT TYPICAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MOSTLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE...ALONG
WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY GOING
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING EAST OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE FLOW ALSO OUT OF THE NORTH.  THIS
LEADS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT SHOULD THIN LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET
IS NOT AS STRONG TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL
SO FOG FIGURES TO BE A MORE FAVORED THREAT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT SOME FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z-09Z. WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB
AND POSSIBLE THEY COULD OCCUR AT CAE 09Z-12Z. CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT GUIDANCE HAS NOT
BEEN GREAT AS OF LATE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 202144
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
544 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL US DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN US ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INTO THE LOW COUNTRY
ALONG AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST...SO CUT POPS WAY BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA.
CHANCE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING INVERSION AND WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CURRENT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY.
THEN A STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES...EXPECT TYPICAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MOSTLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE...ALONG
WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY GOING
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING EAST OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE FLOW ALSO OUT OF THE NORTH.  THIS
LEADS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION CREATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT POTENTIAL IMPACTS
AT CAE/CUB/OGB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT AGS/DNL. CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CEASING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
DEVELOPING INVERSION AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALOFT THE FOG
THREAT REMAINS ELEVATED. MODELS INDICATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER MUCH WILL DEPEND ON RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR FOG AT ALL TAF SITES AND WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 201834
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
234 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL US DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN US ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS
INDICATING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BEING PARTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE LOWER 80S EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SOME CELLS HAVING HEAVY RAIN WITH THEM.
POTENTIAL EXITS FOR RAIN RATES OR 1 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME STANDING WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH
SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING AND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES TO THE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CEASE. FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE
TRAPPED UNDER THE DEVELOPING INVERSION AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CURRENT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY.
THEN A STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH PASSES...EXPECT TYPICAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MOSTLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE...ALONG
WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY GOING
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING EAST OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE FLOW ALSO OUT OF THE NORTH.  THIS
LEADS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION CREATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. EXPECT POTENTIAL IMPACTS
AT CAE/CUB/OGB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT AGS/DNL. CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CEASING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
DEVELOPING INVERSION AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALOFT THE FOG
THREAT REMAINS ELEVATED. MODELS INDICATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER MUCH WILL DEPEND ON RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR FOG AT ALL TAF SITES AND WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 201453
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1053 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL US DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN US ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN AREAS WHICH WERE PREVIOUSLY PARTLY
CLOUDY. CAE WSR-88D RETURNS ALSO SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FROM WEST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH YORK COUNTY. EXPECT THIS LINE TO
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH AREAS WHICH HAVE BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
WARMED INTO THE MID 70S RESULTING IN EXPANSION OF THE LINE AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 80S AND COMBINE WITH THE
INSTABILITY. MAIN CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS PWAT VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.7
INCHES. THERE IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL
WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD AS SPC HAS AREA IN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES 20-30 PERCENT FRIDAY AS STRONGER UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 12-14 HOURS OF SUNSHINE WITH FEWER CLOUDS. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

STRATUS AND FOG HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT MVFR AT ALL SITES AROUND
13Z WITH FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 17Z. FIRST CONCERN FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE AREA WILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE AT
CAE/CUB/OGB...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. NEXT CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL AND WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
INCREASING. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT ALL SITES
FROM AROUND 21/06Z ONWARD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 201219
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
819 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL US DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN US ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FOG AND STRATUS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WITH THE EXPECTED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S RESULTING IN CUMULUS DEVELOPING.
WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND HEATING WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH UPPER TROUGH IS WEAK...IT WILL
STILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING NORTH OUT OF AREA THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO TAKE OUT POPS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS UNTIL ABOUT 11 AM. MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SO WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD AS SPC HAS AREA IN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES 20-30 PERCENT FRIDAY AS STRONGER UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 12-14 HOURS OF SUNSHINE WITH FEWER CLOUDS. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

STRATUS AND FOG HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT MVFR AT ALL SITES AROUND
13Z WITH FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 17Z. FIRST CONCERN FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE AREA WILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE AT
CAE/CUB/OGB...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. NEXT CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL AND WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS
INCREASING. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT ALL SITES
FROM AROUND 21/06Z ONWARD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 201031
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER TROUGH IS WEAK...IT WILL STILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH
TO GIVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH OUT OF AREA THIS
MORNING...DECIDED TO TAKE OUT POPS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
UNTIL ABOUT 11 AM. MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SO WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD AS SPC HAS AREA IN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES 20-30 PERCENT FRIDAY AS STRONGER UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 12-14 HOURS OF SUNSHINE WITH FEWER CLOUDS. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING.  LATEST OBS INDICATING A MIX OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CAE VWP INDICATING
A 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING.  WILL INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY THROUGH 13Z WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO CALM OVERNIGHT
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 17Z.
ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING WITH
OGB/CAE/CUB MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. MAINLY MID-LEVEL CIGS AFTER 02Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 200930
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
530 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER TROUGH IS WEAK...IT WILL STILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH
TO GIVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH OUT OF AREA THIS
MORNING...DECIDED TO TAKE OUT POPS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
UNTIL ABOUT 11 AM. MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SO WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD AS SPC HAS AREA IN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES 20-30 PERCENT FRIDAY AS STRONGER UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 12-14 HOURS OF SUNSHINE WITH FEWER CLOUDS. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF
STRATUS OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING.  LATEST OBS INDICATING A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN
TERMINALS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THINK STRATUS WILL BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
CAE VWP INDICATING A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.  WILL INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY 087Z-13Z WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO CALM
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
17Z.  ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING
WITH OGB/CAE/CUB MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 200825
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
425 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BUT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PREVENT
MUCH FOG FROM DEVELOPING. LOWS IN THE MID 60S STILL OK.

MONDAY...ALTHOUGH UPPER TROUGH IS WEAK...IT WILL STILL PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD AS SPC HAS AREA IN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE
MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES 20-30 PERCENT FRIDAY AS STRONGER UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 12-14 HOURS OF SUNSHINE WITH FEWER CLOUDS. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF
STRATUS OR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING.  LATEST OBS INDICATING A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN
TERMINALS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THINK STRATUS WILL BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
CAE VWP INDICATING A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.  WILL INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY 087Z-13Z WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO CALM
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
17Z.  ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING
WITH OGB/CAE/CUB MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 200600
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EAST AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO DECREASE. STILL A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY IN THE FAR NORTH AND
FAR NORTHEAST THOUGH. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WITH
INSTABILITY WEAK TO MODERATE CHANCE POPS APPEAR APPROPRIATE. MAIN
THREAT HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.8 INCHES
AND SLOW MOVEMENT/DEEP WARM CLOUD. CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT TIME
JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE.
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH RAINFALL AREAS. MONDAYS TEMPERATURES ONLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
CSRA MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONCE WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...A DRY SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
APPEARS TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
WEEKEND MAY SHAPE UP TO BE DRY. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.  ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN OVERNIGHT FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF STRATUS
OR FOG.  GUIDANCE AGAIN IN AGREEMENT SHOWING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN TERMINALS RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
YESTERDAY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY LOW WILL MENTION
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY.

THINK STRATUS WILL BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
CAE VWP INDICATING A 25-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.  WILL INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY 07Z-13Z WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS MONDAY.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO CALM
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
17Z.  ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING
WITH OGB/CAE/CUB MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 200058
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
858 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS CONFIDENCE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR CUTTING
POPS BACK TO CHANCE REST OF NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA AND WITH INSTABILITY WEAK TO MODERATE CHANCE POPS APPEAR APPROPRIATE.
MAIN THREAT HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.8
INCHES AND SLOW MOVEMENT/DEEP WARM CLOUD. CLOUD COVER LINGERING
OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT TIME
JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE.
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH RAINFALL AREAS. MONDAYS TEMPERATURES ONLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
CSRA MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONCE WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...A DRY SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
APPEARS TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
WEEKEND MAY SHAPE UP TO BE DRY. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.  SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR CAE/CUB/OGB 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN TONIGHT FAVORS
INCREASED CHANCES OF STRATUS OR FOG.  GUIDANCE AGAIN IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN TERMINALS
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY LOW AM INCLINED TO INCLUDE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS LATER
TONIGHT.

THINK STRATUS WILL BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND FORECAST 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.  WILL INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY 07Z-13Z WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO CALM OVERNIGHT
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 17Z.
ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING WITH
OGB/CAE/CUB MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 192352
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AT
23Z TRIGGERING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
IN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY. CONVECTION MAY DRIFT TO THE EAST. MAIN THREAT HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND SLOW
MOVEMENT/DEEP WARM CLOUD.

OVERNIGHT...REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH INSTABILITY LINGERING...WHICH LEAVE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS PRONE TO FOG AND WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL. CLOUD COVER
LINGERING OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT TIME
JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE.
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH RAINFALL AREAS. MONDAYS TEMPERATURES ONLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
CSRA MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONCE WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...A DRY SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
APPEARS TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
WEEKEND MAY SHAPE UP TO BE DRY. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.  SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR CAE/CUB/OGB 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN TONIGHT FAVORS
INCREASED CHANCES OF STRATUS OR FOG.  GUIDANCE AGAIN IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN TERMINALS
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
ALREADY LOW AM INCLINED TO INCLUDE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS LATER
TONIGHT.

THINK STRATUS WILL BE MORE FAVORED GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND FORECAST 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.  WILL INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS
GENERALLY 07Z-13Z WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS
MONDAY.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO CALM OVERNIGHT
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 17Z.
ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING WITH
OGB/CAE/CUB MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.



&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 191842
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
242 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. THE
DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WAS THE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME
HEATING AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. AS THIS BATCH MOVES EASTWARD
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS HAS BECOME PARTLY SUNNY AS THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WHICH CROSSED EASTERN GA CONTINUES DIVING SOUTHWARD. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING RECENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S ACTIVITY
HAS NOT BEEN SUSTAINED. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH LESS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CSRA WHERE CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED FROM THE
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH INSTABILITY LINGERING...WHICH LEAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN TN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
MOVEMENT AS WELL AS ABILITY TO PERSIST IN AN AREA WHICH HAS
ALREADY SEEN CONVECTION. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PRONE TO FOG AND WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL.
CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT TIME
JUST CHANCE POPS MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE.
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON AMOUNT AND THICKNESS OF EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH RAINFALL AREAS. MONDAYS TEMPERATURES ONLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
CSRA MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONCE WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...A DRY SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
APPEARS TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
WEEKEND MAY SHAPE UP TO BE DRY. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RESULTING IN LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AREAS WHICH WERE PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING HAVE SEEN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
IN AND AROUND CUB/OGB. EXPECT THESE CELLS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD WHILE AREAS OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THESE AREAS WILL SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE CONCERNS AT TAF
SITES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS ALOFT...BUT WITHOUT SURFACE HEATING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE
DIMINISHES. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS RETURNING TO VFR BY MID MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 191222
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL GA AND INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING SO SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR HAVE RAINFALL IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MUCH
LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COMPLEX TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH LEAVES THE
QUESTION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WITH REMAINS OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR HEATING. WITH
CLOUDINESS COVERING THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LIMITING HEATING
WILL REMAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. SURFACE FRONT
WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING HIGH CHANCE LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING...THEN JUST CHANCE MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT WILL TAKE OUT
POPS LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DE
PENDANT UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS THAT ARE IN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 70S MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RESULTING IN LOW
CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT CAE WSR-88D
RETURNS INDICATE LARGE COMPLEX CROSSING EAST CENTRAL GA MOVING
TOWARD AGS/DNL. EXPECT SHOWERS...TEMPO THUNDER...AT AGS/DNL FROM
14Z THROUGH 18Z. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION AN
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ATTM AS MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON CURRENT COMPLEX IN GA AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FOR HEATING. FINAL CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WITH
CURRENT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA RISK IS ELEVATED SO
HAVE INCLUDED FOG FROM AROUND 20/06Z ONWARD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 191037
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM GEORGIA AS UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH IS SPREADING TO THE EAST. HAVE INCLUDED AN 80 PERCENT
AREA MOVING INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WITH THUNDER PRESENT...DECIDED TO MENTION CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ON INTO THE TODAY PERIOD.

TODAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. LIKED THE LOCAL LOCAL HIGH POPS LATER
TODAY. GENERALLY CARRIED 60 PERCENT POPS IN THE GRIDDED DATA FOR
MOST OF THE DAY BUT DID INCLUDE 80-90 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON TOWARD EVENING. WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WHOLE TODAY PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MODELS VARY ON POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH AFFECTS THE STABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. GFS
MOS GIVES 84 HIGH WITH MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WHEREAS NAM MOS GAVE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
79 HIGH. DECIDED ON A MODEL BLEND WITH 81 HIGH AND JUST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. MODELS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM FOR YESTERDAY. SPC
HAS AREA IN SEE TEXT AND THINK MAIN REASONING IS FOR WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD SKY COVER TODAY BUT IF THERE ARE
MORE BREAKS GIVING MORE SUNSHINE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE OBVIOUSLY.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER OUR
REGION...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. HIGH POPS TODAY. GFS
INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN NAM. TAKING A BLEND GENERALLY
INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOW/MID LEVEL JET AND SHEAR WEAK.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS OUR FA IN SEE TEXT.

VIL OF THE DAY 55

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. SURFACE FRONT
WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING HIGH CHANCE LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING...THEN JUST CHANCE MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT WILL TAKE OUT
POPS LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DE
PENDANT UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS THAT ARE IN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 70S MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS...THOUGH MAINLY VFR AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS. ACROSS OUR
FA...MOST RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS ARE GENERALLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEST
APPROACH MAY BE TO CONCENTRATE DETAIL IN THE NEAR TERM. LATEST RADAR
INDICATES AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE
GA...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SE. WILL MONITOR RADAR FOR POSSIBLE
IMPACTS TO AGS/DNL IN THE NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AND
CHANCES OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 191015
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM GEORGIA AS UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH IS SPREADING TO THE EAST. HAVE INCLUDED AN 80 PERCENT
AREA MOVING INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WITH THUNDER PRESENT...DECIDED TO MENTION CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ON INTO THE TODAY PERIOD.

TODAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. LIKED THE LOCAL LOCAL HIGH POPS LATER
TODAY. GENERALLY CARRIED 60 PERCENT POPS IN THE GRIDDED DATA FOR
MOST OF THE DAY BUT DID INCLUDE 80-90 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON TOWARD EVENING. WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WHOLE TODAY PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MODELS VARY ON POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH AFFECTS THE STABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. GFS
MOS GIVES 84 HIGH WITH MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WHEREAS NAM MOS GAVE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
79 HIGH. DECIDED ON A MODEL BLEND WITH 81 HIGH AND JUST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. MODELS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM FOR YESTERDAY. SPC
HAS AREA IN SEE TEXT AND THINK MAIN REASONING IS FOR WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD SKY COVER TODAY BUT IF THERE ARE
MORE BREAKS GIVING MORE SUNSHINE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE OBVIOUSLY.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER OUR
REGION...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. HIGH POPS TODAY. GFS
INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN NAM. TAKING A BLEND GENERALLY
INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOW/MID LEVEL JET AND SHEAR WEAK.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS OUR FA IN SEE TEXT.

VIL OF THE DAY 55

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. SURFACE FRONT
WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING HIGH CHANCE LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING...THEN JUST CHANCE MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT WILL TAKE OUT
POPS LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DE
PENDANT UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS THAT ARE IN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 70S MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN THE NEAR TERM.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF
INCREASING COVERAGE AND CHANCES OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 190948
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
548 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM GEORGIA AS UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH IS SPREADING TO THE EAST. HAVE INCLUDED AN 80 PERCENT
AREA MOVING INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WITH THUNDER PRESENT...DECIDED TO MENTION CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ON INTO THE TODAY PERIOD.

TODAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. LIKED THE LOCAL LOCAL HIGH POPS LATER
TODAY. GENERALLY CARRIED 60 PERCENT POPS IN THE GRIDDED DATA FOR
MOST OF THE DAY BUT DID INCLUDE 80-90 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON TOWARD EVENING. WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING IN FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WHOLE TODAY PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MODELS VARY ON POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH AFFECTS THE STABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL. GFS
MOS GIVES 84 HIGH WITH MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WHEREAS NAM MOS GAVE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
79 HIGH. DECIDED ON A MODEL BLEND WITH 81 HIGH AND JUST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. MODELS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM FOR YESTERDAY. SPC
HAS AREA IN SEE TEXT AND THINK MAIN REASONING IS FOR WEAKER
INSTABILITY. EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD SKY COVER TODAY BUT IF THERE ARE
MORE BREAKS GIVING MORE SUNSHINE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE OBVIOUSLY.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER OUR
REGION...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. HIGH POPS TODAY. GFS
INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN NAM. TAKING A BLEND GENERALLY
INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOW/MID LEVEL JET AND SHEAR WEAK.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS OUR FA IN SEE TEXT.

VIL OF THE DAY 55

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. SURFACE FRONT
WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING HIGH CHANCE LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING...THEN JUST CHANCE MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT WILL TAKE OUT
POPS LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DE
PENDANT UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS THAT ARE IN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 70S MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST ARRAY OF MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THE NEAR TERM. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS APPEARS WOULD BE
GENERALLY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. WILL COMMUNICATE THAT
WITH TEMPO SHRA GROUP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 190922
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
522 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SO JUST SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE HIGHER IN THE WEST AT
ABOUT 60 PERCENT AND LOWER IN THE EAST AT 30-40 PERCENT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

TODAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. LIKED THE LOCAL LOCAL HIGH POPS LATER
TODAY. GENERALLY CARRIED 60 PERCENT POPS IN THE GRIDDED DATA FOR
MOST OF THE DAY BUT DID INCLUDE 80-90 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON TOWARD EVENING. WENT SHOWERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MODELS VARY ON POPS
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH AFFECTS THE STABILITY
PARAMETERS AS WELL. GFS MOS GIVES 84 HIGH WITH MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WHEREAS NAM MOS GAVE
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A 79 HIGH. DECIDED ON A MODEL BLEND
WITH 81 HIGH AND JUST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MODELS WERE A FEW
DEGREES TOO WARM FOR YESTERDAY. SPC HAS AREA IN SEE TEXT AND
THINK MAIN REASONING IS FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY. EXPECT A PRETTY
GOOD SKY COVER TODAY BUT IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS GIVING MORE
SUNSHINE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OBVIOUSLY.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER OUR
REGION...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. HIGH POPS TODAY. GFS
INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN NAM. TAKING A BLEND GENERALLY
INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOW/MID LEVEL JET AND SHEAR WEAK.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS OUR FA IN SEE TEXT.

VIL OF THE DAY 55

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. SURFACE FRONT
WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING HIGH CHANCE LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING...THEN JUST CHANCE MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT WILL TAKE OUT
POPS LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DE
PENDANT UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS THAT ARE IN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 70S MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST ARRAY OF MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THE NEAR TERM. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS APPEARS WOULD BE
GENERALLY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. WILL COMMUNICATE THAT
WITH TEMPO SHRA GROUP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 190813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SO JUST SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE HIGHER IN THE WEST AT
ABOUT 60 PERCENT AND LOWER IN THE EAST AT 30-40 PERCENT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

TODAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. LIKED THE LOCAL LOCAL HIGH POPS LATER
TODAY. GENERALLY CARRIED 60 PERCENT POPS IN THE GRIDDED DATA FOR
MOST OF THE DAY BUT DID INCLUDE 80-90 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON TOWARD EVENING. WENT SHOWERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MODELS VARY ON POPS
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH AFFECTS THE STABILITY
PARAMETERS AS WELL. GFS MOS GIVES 84 HIGH WITH MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WHEREAS NAM MOS GAVE
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A 79 HIGH. DECIDED ON A MODEL BLEND
WITH 81 HIGH AND JUST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MODELS WERE A FEW
DEGREES TOO WARM FOR YESTERDAY. SPC HAS AREA IN SEE TEXT AND
THINK MAIN REASONING IS FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY. EXPECT A PRETTY
GOOD SKY COVER TODAY BUT IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS GIVING MORE
SUNSHINE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OBVIOUSLY.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER OUR
REGION...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. HIGH POPS TODAY. GFS
INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN NAM. TAKING A BLEND GENERALLY
INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOW/MID LEVEL JET AND SHEAR WEAK.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS OUR FA IN SEE TEXT.

VIL OF THE DAY 55

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. SURFACE FRONT
WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING HIGH CHANCE LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING...THEN JUST CHANCE MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT WILL TAKE OUT
POPS LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DE
PENDANT UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS THAT ARE IN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 70S MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.




&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES
WEAKENING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE W/NW FA SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST.
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY OVER N GA...WHICH MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR
FA. GOOD COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LATEST ARRAY OF MODELS SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A
PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS...BUT KEEP CIGS MVFR DUE TO LIMITED
CONFIDENCE. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS APPEARS WOULD BE GENERALLY LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. WILL COMMUNICATE THAT WITH TEMPO SHRA GROUP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 190627
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
227 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA TRIGGERING SHOWERS IN
THE CSRA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IN TENNESSEE. INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE AREA BUT MODELS
INDICATE CONTINUED LIFT OVERNIGHT AND MOIST AIR MASS. ARES OF SHOWERS
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVING EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS
EARLY THIS MORNING...30-40 PERCENT STILL OK IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE
FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN IT IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY
TRACK EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE
TO TAKE HOLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL
THAT TIME...EXPECTING HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PROBABLY
COME IN WAVES...BUT DID NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING THIS FAR
OUT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DE PENDANT UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
AREAS THAT ARE IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.


CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER OUR
REGION...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. HIGH POPS TODAY. GFS
INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN NAM. TAKING A BLEND GENERALLY
INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOW/MID LEVEL JET AND SHEAR WEAK.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS POSSIBLE.
06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS OUR FA IN SEE TEXT.

VIL OF THE DAY 55

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES
WEAKENING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE W/NW FA SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST.
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY OVER N GA...WHICH MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR
FA. GOOD COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL
WORK AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LATEST ARRAY OF MODELS SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A
PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS...BUT KEEP CIGS MVFR DUE TO LIMITED
CONFIDENCE. BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS APPEARS WOULD BE GENERALLY LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. WILL COMMUNICATE THAT WITH TEMPO SHRA GROUP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$