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000
FXUS62 KCAE 271839
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
239 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
Moisture will increase Saturday through Sunday associated with
low pressure nearing the Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cumulus continue developing across the Midlands and CSRA with a
mid level cap suppressing any showers development. Clouds will
dissipate with sunset and loss of heating with mostly clear skies
expected through the early morning hours. System in the Atlantic
will continue slowly moving toward the coast overnight with
moisture and clouds ahead of the system reaching the coast around
daybreak. As such expect some increasing clouds across the area
during the early morning hours...however no showers are
anticipated overnight. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The NHC is monitoring the area of low pressure in the western
Atlantic, and future forecasts will be based more on their
guidance if the system develops sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics.

Models showing moisture increasing from the east through the day
Saturday as an area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic
progresses westward towards the South Carolina Coast. The models
are coming into a somewhat better agreement with the track and
movement of the area of low pressure through the period. General
consensus seems to bring the low towards the coast, moving inland
somewhere north of Charleston, then slowing the low as it moves
into eastern South Carolina. Models then trend towards moving the
low northeastward as we move into Monday.

For Saturday, expecting the morning to remain mainly dry across
the cwa, then increasing shower and thunderstorm chances across
the east during the afternoon. Rain/thunderstorm chances continue
Sunday into Monday as the low slowly moves through the region.
Highest chances for precip will remain greatest across the eastern
counties, with pops trending lower the further west you go. Trended
towards the WPC qpf amounts through the period. With the potential
slow movement to the low, can not rule out periods of heavy
rainfall which could produce localized flooding.

Used the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much uncertainty in the longer term forecast period. Models
differ on the upper air solutions through the middle of the week,
with the gfs showing a weak ridge north of the cwa and a weak low
just east. The ecmwf shows a trough east of the area, and high
pressure over the region. All in all, can not rule out any
isolated or scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms any day
next week. Temperature forecast was a general blend of guidance,
which is generally at or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions to dominate the taf period...with early morning
mvfr fog possible at AGS/OGB.

Satellite imagery shows some cumulus have formed across the taf
sites with the system in the Atlantic slowly moving west
northwestward. expect cumulus to linger through the afternoon and
evening hours then dissipate with sunset. Moisture will continue
slowly increasing overnight with additional moisture arriving
Saturday morning as winds turn northeasterly. Showers associated
with the Atlantic system will move into the taf sites on Saturday
reaching OGB around midday and the remainder of the sites just
after the end of the period. As such have included VCSH for OGB
near the end of the period with no mention elsewhere. Winds will
be light and variable overnight then become northeasterly at 8
knots or less from 14z onward.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
thunderstorms Saturday through Monday as a system moves into the
area from the Atlantic Basin.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271451
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1051 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
Moisture will increase Saturday through Sunday associated with
low pressure nearing the Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite imagery shows clouds across the area have begun to mix
out with cumulus expected to develop from late morning through the
afternoon hours...mainly over the western Midlands. Ridging will
remain over the forecast area today then begin weakening tonight
ahead of the system offshore. Moisture will slowly increase
across the region with south southeasterly winds through the
day...then backing to light northeasterly overnight. Clouds will
begin increasing toward daybreak...however any rain associated
with the system moving in from the Atlantic will hold off until
Saturday morning. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper
80s with overnight lows tonight in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models display moisture increasing in the forecast area in a
developing easterly flow between ridging shifting north and low
pressure approaching from off the Southeast coast. The shower and
thunderstorm chance should be on the increase, especially in the
east section of the forecast area. Followed the guidance consensus
for the pop forecast. The NAM and ECMWF indicated general rainfall
totals Saturday and Saturday night up to around 0.25 of an inch.
The GFS had more rain will totals 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch in the
east section. Followed the more consistent guidance. Used the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period. The GFS
displayed low pressure from off the Southeast coast moving inland
and remaining near or in the forecast area through much of the
period. The ECMWF stalled the low near the coast and then
indicated a general northeast movement along the coast. The low
may gain sub-tropical characteristics. The slower GFS solution
indicates more of a flood threat in the forecast area. There may
also be a tornado threat as well because of tropical moisture and
possible high shear. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS support the
highest pops Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions through the taf period.

high pressure ridge will remain over the taf sites through the day
then weaken overnight as a disturbance over the western Atlantic
moves toward the SC coast. Expect some diurnal cumulus from late
morning through the afternoon hours with clouds dissipating with
sunset. Although moisture will be slowly increasing across the
area the potential for fog overnight at AGS/OGB remains too low to
include attm.Winds through the period will be southeasterly at 8
knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
thunderstorms Saturday through Monday as a system moves into the
area from the Atlantic Basin. Lower confidence in breezy
conditions Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271047
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
647 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the forecast area through tonight.
Moisture will increase Saturday through Sunday associated with
low pressure nearing the Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery trends and the models depict the mid-level
shortwave trough weakening or the ridge building westward slightly
from the Atlantic while an upper low remains over the vicinity of
the Bahamas. The models display continued surface ridging along
the southeast coast limiting moisture here. Model forecast
soundings indicate a mid-level subsidence inversion or cap which
should help diminish the thunderstorm chance. All the GFS, NAM and
ECMWF MOS have pops less than 20 percent. The high-resolution
models display just isolated coverage at most. Believe the
thunderstorm chance is too low to include in the forecast. Used
the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models display moisture increasing in the forecast area in a
developing easterly flow between ridging shifting north and low
pressure approaching from off the Southeast coast. The shower and
thunderstorm chance should be on the increase, especially in the
east section of the forecast area. Followed the guidance consensus
for the pop forecast. The NAM and ECMWF indicated general rainfall
totals Saturday and Saturday night up to around 0.25 of an inch.
The GFS had more rain will totals 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch in the
east section. Followed the more consistent guidance. Used the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period. The GFS
displayed low pressure from off the Southeast coast moving inland
and remaining near or in the forecast area through much of the
period. The ECMWF stalled the low near the coast and then
indicated a general northeast movement along the coast. The low
may gain sub-tropical characteristics. The slower GFS solution
indicates more of a flood threat in the forecast area. There may
also be a tornado threat as well because of tropical moisture and
possible high shear. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS support the
highest pops Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected. High pressure and drier air will build
over the Forecast Area today, ensuring fair weather. MVFR
fog/stratus possible at ags and ogb late Friday night/early
Saturday morning, but confidence a little too low to include in
the TAFS at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and possible thunderstorms
and associated restrictions, with breezy conditions possible at
times, late Saturday afternoon through at least early next week,
as a low pressure system, which may possibly become tropical,
approaches from the SE and then may stall or move slowly near the
region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 262338
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
738 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday.
Moisture will increase over the weekend associated with low
pressure nearing the southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Isolated afternoon diurnal convection across the western part of
the Forecast Area associated with a weak and slowly moving upper
disturbance likely to continue for a couple more hours before
dissipating with the loss of heating. Convection has generally
been low topped within a weakly unstable environment with little
wind shear as cells have been nearly stationary in movement.

Expect skies to clear a bit across the region but maybe staying a
bit higher in cloud cover over the upper CSRA and western Midlands
closer to the upper disturbance. Overnight lows will again be
limited by a 20-25 knot low level jet which will help keep the
boundary layer disturbed. Overnight lows expected to be in the
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue to show surface ridging coming on off the
Atlantic. Surface low forecast to continue developing across the
western Atlantic east of Florida through the period. This low will
track westward through the period. Models still keep the low off
the coast during the day Saturday, then move it just off the coast
Saturday night. At this time it appears as if Friday and Friday
night will remain dry, due to the influence of the surface high
and upper ridge. Model forecast soundings indicate a mid-level
subsidence inversion or cap becoming more established Friday which
should help diminish the thunderstorm chance also. However by
Saturday the upper ridge begins breaking down as the low off the
coast tracks westward. With easterly flow off the Atlantic, would
expect rain chances to increase during the day on Saturday.
However the best chance for any rainfall will remain mainly across
the eastern portions of the CWA during the day and into Saturday
night. Used a blend of guidance for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Uncertainty enters the forecast as we get into the longer term.
Biggest uncertainty revolves around the track of the low pressure
system forecast to be just off the coast Sunday morning. The gfs
tracks the low inland, then stalls it over the eastern CWA before
it appears to dissipate. The ECMWF is different in that it stalls
it just along the coast during the day Sunday, then tracks it off
to the northeast along the coast of the Carolina`s Sunday night
into Monday. Either way, an increased chance for rainfall appears
likely from Sunday night into Monday.  Depending on the track of
the storm, locally heavy rainfall and some flooding could become
an issue in the forecast area.

After Monday, held onto diurnal pop trends for the remainder of
the period, with chance pops during the day, and slight chance
during the overnight hours. Confidence in the longer term forecast
remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions to dominate the period...with early morning MVFR
possible at AGS/OGB.

High pressure ridge remains in control of the area with a weak
disturbance over central GA. Showers remain isolated in the CSRA
early this evening...not expected to impact Terminals and are
expected to dissipate by 01z with loss of heating/forcing. Based
on persistence will forecast a brief period of MVFR fog at AGS/OGB
around daybreak Friday otherwise VFR with mainly clear skies
through the overnight. At most scattered cumulus after
12z...ridge building west from the Atlantic and subsidence
expected. Southeast winds Friday less than 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR fog possible at ags and ogb
early each morning. Increasing confidence in restrictions Saturday
night through Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches from
the southeast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 261022
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
622 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday.
Moisture may increase over the weekend associated with low
pressure nearing the southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This morning`s analysis showed a pressure ridge extending along
the Southeast coast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The water
vapor imagery indicated a weakness in the mid-level ridge over the
forecast area. Strong heating combined with less mid-level
capping may help support thunderstorms but expect little coverage
because of shallow moisture. The greater thunderstorm chance may
be this afternoon and evening near the sea breeze front in the
southeast part of the forecast area and in the west section
closer to somewhat deeper moisture. The ARW supported isolated
coverage. The NAM and GFS MOS pops were very low. We forecasted
slight chance pops. Followed the guidance consensus for the
temperature forecast. Wind should be light with the ridge axis
just southeast of the area. The NAM and GFS MOS indicated mainly
southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The models depict the mid-level shortwave trough weakening or the
ridge building westward slightly from the Atlantic while an upper
low remains over the vicinity of the Bahamas for Friday and Friday
night. The models display continued surface ridging along the
southeast coast limiting moisture here. Model forecast soundings
indicate a mid-level subsidence inversion or cap becoming more
established Friday which should help diminish the thunderstorm
chance. All the GFS and NAM MOS have pops less than 20 percent. We
maintained the dry forecast. Used the guidance consensus for the
temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The medium-range models continue to indicate a low pressure
system in the Atlantic moving toward the Southeast coast over the
weekend. The system may be stalled over the region early next
week. It is possible the low could gain sub-tropical characteristics.
There has been poor run-to-run model consistency with the timing
and placement of deepest moisture and confidence remains low. The
GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS pops have not been consistent. We
continued the forecast of chance pops. Depending on the track of
the storm, locally heavy rainfall and flooding could become an
issue in the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Brief MVFR/IFR fog possible this morning at AGS and OGB until
13z, otherwise VFR conditions across the area today into tonight.
High pressure centered off the Atlantic coast will provide a
general light southerly flow over the area today. Expect some
cumulus to develop by late morning or early afternoon. Isolated
convection possible by late afternoon, but coverage is expected to
be minimal so will not mention in any of the TAF sites.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some fog possible at the fog prone sites
ags and ogb early each morning. Moisture return and associated
restrictions possible Saturday through Monday as a subtropical
low approaches the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 260629
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
229 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday.
Moisture may increase over the weekend associated with low
pressure nearing the southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This morning`s analysis showed a pressure ridge extending along
the Southeast coast into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The water
vapor imagery indicated a weakness in the mid-level ridge over the
forecast area. Strong heating combined with less mid-level
capping may help support thunderstorms but expect little coverage
because of shallow moisture. The greater thunderstorm chance may
be this afternoon and evening near the sea breeze front in the
southeast part of the forecast area and in the northwest section
closer to somewhat deeper moisture. The ARW supported isolated
coverage. The NAM and GFS MOS pops were very low. We forecasted
slight chance pops. Followed the guidance consensus for the
temperature forecast. Wind should be light with the ridge axis
just southeast of the area. The NAM and GFS MOS indicated mainly
southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The models depict the mid-level shortwave trough weakening or the
ridge building westward slightly from the Atlantic while an upper
low remains over the vicinity of the Bahamas for Friday and Friday
night. The models display continued surface ridging along the
southeast coast limiting moisture here. Model forecast soundings
indicate a mid-level subsidence inversion or cap becoming more
established Friday which should help diminish the thunderstorm
chance. All the GFS and NAM MOS have pops less than 20 percent. We
maintained the dry forecast. Used the guidance consensus for the
temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The medium-range models continue to indicate a low pressure
system in the Atlantic moving toward the Southeast coast over the
weekend. The system may be stalled over the region early next
week. It is possible the low could gain sub-tropical characteristics.
There has been poor run-to-run model consistency with the timing
and placement of deepest moisture and confidence remains low. The
GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS indicate pops 30 to 60 percent Saturday
through Wednesday. We continued the forecast of chance pops.
Depending on the track of the storm, locally heavy rainfall and
flooding could become an issue in the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly clear skies overnight and near calm wind as high pressure
off the coast ridges into the region.

Latest CAE VWP showing a 20 kt low-level jet. Could see MVFR/IFR
fog/stratus at ags/ogb during the early morning hours. Expect any
development to begin after 08Z, with IFR possible 08Z through
12Z. By 13z should see VFR conditions at all sites with diurnal
cumulus developing for the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some fog possible at the fog prone sites
ags and ogb early each morning. Moisture return and associated
restrictions possible Saturday through Monday as a subtropical
low approaches the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 252210
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
610 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the forecast area through Friday.
Moisture may increase over the weekend associated with low
pressure nearing the southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Similar conditions early this evening as compared to Tuesday with
some lingering diurnal cumulus clouds around but no precipitation
as the region remains under the influence of surface high pressure
and a weak upper ridge. Temperatures continue to be quite warm
with Columbia still in the upper 80s at 6pm and expect
temperatures to slowly cool through the night with a 20 knot low
level jet helping to keep the boundary layer mixed. Convective
complex over western TN/KY will continue to push east overnight
but not expected to survive past the mountains or reach the
forecast area.

Increased low level moisture due to persistent southwesterly
winds will mean that we cannot completely rule out some patchy fog
towards morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weakness in the upper ridge over our region associated with a
stalled upper impulse, along with a slight increase in
atmospheric moisture, and daytime heating, may provide a slight
chance of showers thursday afternoon and early evening mainly
across the north, and possibly an isolated shower near the S/E
forecast area (FA) near a sea breeze boundary. On Friday, the
upper ridge will build westward from the western atlantic into the
se conus and east coast, while an upper low remains over the
vicinity of the Bahamas. Model forecast soundings indicate mid
level subsidence inversion/cap reestablishing itself over the area
Friday, appearing to preclude significant convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The focus will be on the Atlantic low pressure system shifting NW
toward the SE coast over the weekend. Latest 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs
generally maintain good consistency with each other, and with previous
12z runs, through Monday, bringing the upper and surface lows towards
the SE coast where it stalls or moves slowly. GFS and ECMWF begin to
diverge early to mid next week, with ECMWF slowly taking it NE up the
coast, while the GFS shifts it inland across the Carolinas and
into the central Appalachians. At this time, it appears that the
latest GFS and ECMWF runs generally suggest that the highest
atmospheric moisture may remain mainly just to our south and east
through Monday, though GFS is the wetter solution for Tue into
Wed. For now, will go with a model blend on weather elements,
generally indicating chance to good chance showers/thunderstorms
Saturday through at least Monday, possibly continuing into
Tue/Wed. This system will also have to be monitored for possible
tropical development.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through 06z at all sites as high
pressure off the coast ridges into the region. Winds will be
variable, with a general Southerly direction at times, less than 7
knots. Can not rule out the redevelopment of mvfr/ifr visibilities
in fog once again at ags/ogb late tonight. Expect any development
to begin after 06z, with ifr development possible after 08z
through 12z. By 13z on Thursday, a return to vfr for all sites.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some fog possible at the fog prone sites
ags and ogb early each morning. Moisture return and associated
restrictions possible Saturday/Sunday as a subtropical low
approaches the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 251034
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
634 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will remain over the forecast area through
Friday. Moisture may increase over the weekend associated with low
pressure nearing the southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the ridge over the
forecast area. A sea breeze front will likely move well inland
late this afternoon and evening. However, surface high pressure
extending from the Atlantic westward along the northeast Gulf
coast will continue to limit moisture. The models show just
shallow moisture and indicate mid-level capping. The NAM and GFS
MOS have pops less than 10 percent. We maintained the dry
forecast. The temperature guidance was consistent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday and Thursday night,
There should be less mid-level capping with a continued shortwave
trough in the upper ridging supporting an increased thunderstorm
chance. However, still expect shallow moisture with little
coverage. Some of the NAM and GFS MOS have pops around 20
percent. Forecasted a small pop in the afternoon and evening
mainly along the I-95 corridor because of convergence associated
with a sea breeze front and in the northwest section closer to
somewhat deeper moisture. The temperature guidance was close.

Friday,
The models depict upper-level ridging retrograding into the
region with diminished moisture. The NAM and GFS MOS were
consistent with pops less than 20 percent. Believe the
thunderstorm chance is too low to include in the forecast. The
temperature guidance was consistent.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The focus during the medium-range period is on the Atlantic low
pressure system shifting toward the Southeast coast over the
weekend. The system may be stalled over the region early next
week. It is possible the low could gain sub-tropical
characteristics. There has been poor run-to-run model consistency
with the timing and placement of the system and confidence remains
low. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS indicate pops 30 to 60 percent
Saturday through Tuesday. The GFS ensemble guidance suggests a
spread of 20 to 50 percent during the period. We continued the
forecast of chance pops. Depending on the track of the storm,
locally heavy rainfall and flooding could become an issue in the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
low level moisture coupled with near calm wind and dry air aloft
leading to early morning fog especially at AGS and OGB, which
should continue until around 13z, leaving VFR conditions through
the end of the taf period. High pressure off the coast will
continue to ridge into the region. Winds will be Southerly less
than 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some fog possible at the fog prone sites
ags and ogb early each morning. Moisture return and associated
restrictions possible Saturday/Sunday as a subtropical low
approaches the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 250600
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
200 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will remain over the forecast area through
Friday. Moisture may increase over the weekend associated with low
pressure nearing the southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the ridge over the
forecast area. A sea breeze front will likely move well inland
late this afternoon and evening. However, surface high pressure
extending from the Atlantic westward along the northeast Gulf
coast will continue to limit moisture. The models show just
shallow moisture and indicate mid-level capping. The NAM and GFS
MOS have pops less than 10 percent. We maintained the dry
forecast. The temperature guidance was consistent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday and Thursday night,
There should be less mid-level capping with a continued shortwave
trough in the upper ridging. Strong heating and a sea breeze front
pushing well inland may help support a few showers or
thunderstorms. Some of the NAM and GFS MOS have pops around 20
percent. Forecasted a small pop in the afternoon and evening along
the I-95 corridor. The temperature guidance was close.

Friday,
The models depict upper-level ridging retrograding into the
region with diminished moisture. The NAM and GFS MOS were
consistent with pops less than 20 percent. Believe the
thunderstorm chance is too low to include in the forecast. The
temperature guidance was consistent.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The focus during the medium-range period is on the Atlantic low
pressure system shifting toward the Southeast coast over the
weekend. The system may be stalled over the region early next
week. It is possible the low could gain sub-tropical
characteristics. There has been poor run-to-run model consistency
with the timing and placement of the system and confidence remains
low. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS indicate pops 30 to 60 percent
Saturday through Tuesday. The GFS ensemble guidance suggests a
spread of 20 to 50 percent during the period. We continued the
forecast of chance pops. Depending on the track of the storm,
locally heavy rainfall and flooding could become an issue in the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence for VFR conditions expected through 06Z.
Increasing low level moisture coupled with near calm wind and dry
air aloft could lead to early morning fog 08Z-12Z. Any fog that
develops will dissipate by 13Z...leaving VFR conditions through
the end of the taf period. High pressure off the coast will
continue to ridge into the region. Winds will be Southerly less
than 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some fog possible at the fog prone sites
ags and ogb early each morning. Moisture return and associated
restrictions possible Saturday/Sunday as a subtropical low
approaches the area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





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