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000
FXUS62 KCAE 020241
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT WED OCT  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS.
NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
OVERNIGHT AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KAGS AND KOGB. ALREADY SEEING A
DECLINE IN VSBY AT KAGS. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THEREBY LIMITING FOG. THE HRRR SHOWED MVFR FOG
AROUND SUNRISE.

SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE
NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS. HAVE INDICATED MVFR/IFR FOG AT KAGS/KOGB
THROUGH 13Z. FORECASTED MVFR FOG AT KCAE/KCUB/DNL AROUND SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 13Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 KFT TO 6 KFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 020241
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1041 PM EDT WED OCT  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS.
NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
OVERNIGHT AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KAGS AND KOGB. ALREADY SEEING A
DECLINE IN VSBY AT KAGS. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THEREBY LIMITING FOG. THE HRRR SHOWED MVFR FOG
AROUND SUNRISE.

SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE
NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS. HAVE INDICATED MVFR/IFR FOG AT KAGS/KOGB
THROUGH 13Z. FORECASTED MVFR FOG AT KCAE/KCUB/DNL AROUND SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 13Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 KFT TO 6 KFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020029
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
829 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS.
NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
OVERNIGHT AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z...PARTICULARLY AT KAGS AND KOGB.
THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...THEREBY LIMITING FOG. THE HRRR SHOWED MVFR FOG AROUND
SUNRISE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AS THE NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS. HAVE INDICATED VFR THROUGH 06Z
THEN MVFR/IFR FOG AT KAGS AFTER 09Z. HAVE FORECASTED MVFR FOG AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB/DNL AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 13Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 KFT TO 6 KFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020029
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
829 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS.
NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
OVERNIGHT AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z...PARTICULARLY AT KAGS AND KOGB.
THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...THEREBY LIMITING FOG. THE HRRR SHOWED MVFR FOG AROUND
SUNRISE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AS THE NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS. HAVE INDICATED VFR THROUGH 06Z
THEN MVFR/IFR FOG AT KAGS AFTER 09Z. HAVE FORECASTED MVFR FOG AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB/DNL AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 13Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 KFT TO 6 KFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 012355
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
755 PM EDT WED OCT  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z...PARTICULARLY AT KAGS AND KOGB.
THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...THEREBY LIMITING FOG. THE HRRR SHOWED MVFR FOG AROUND
SUNRISE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AS THE NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS. HAVE INDICATED VFR THROUGH 06Z
THEN MVFR/IFR FOG AT KAGS AFTER 09Z. HAVE FORECASTED MVFR FOG AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB/DNL AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 13Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 KFT TO 6 KFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 012355
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
755 PM EDT WED OCT  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AFTER 06Z...PARTICULARLY AT KAGS AND KOGB.
THE RAP AND NAM MODELS INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...THEREBY LIMITING FOG. THE HRRR SHOWED MVFR FOG AROUND
SUNRISE. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AS THE NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS. HAVE INDICATED VFR THROUGH 06Z
THEN MVFR/IFR FOG AT KAGS AFTER 09Z. HAVE FORECASTED MVFR FOG AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB/DNL AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 13Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 KFT TO 6 KFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 012054
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
452 PM EDT WED OCT  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
CALM WIND TONIGHT WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
TOWARD MORNING PARTICULARLY AT AGS...OGB...AND CAE. EXPECT VFR
THROUGH AROUND 09Z-10Z THEN MVFR TO IFR FROM 10-13Z THEN IMPROVING
QUICKLY TO VFR AFTER 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS COULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011735
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WIND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING PARTICULARLY AT
AGS...OGB...AND CAE. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR THROUGH AROUND
9-10Z THEN MVFR TO IFR FROM 10-13Z THEN IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR
AFTER 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 011735
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WIND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING PARTICULARLY AT
AGS...OGB...AND CAE. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR THROUGH AROUND
9-10Z THEN MVFR TO IFR FROM 10-13Z THEN IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR
AFTER 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 011613
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1213 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT
FALLING TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -5 FRIDAY
AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IF
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WARMING OCCURS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE H85 WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE SATURDAY. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
WARMER GUIDANCE MAY BE BETTER JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
BELIEVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALSO BETTER FRIDAY
NIGHT BECAUSE OF MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE TEMPERATURE SATURDAY BECAUSE OF
A RELATIVELY WARM START ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE NATION SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND 50. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WIND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING PARTICULARLY AT
AGS...OGB...AND CAE. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT VFR THROUGH AROUND
9-10Z THEN MVFR TO IFR FROM 10-13Z THEN IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR
AFTER 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE WEAK RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
LIGHT WIND SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE FOG. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -5 FRIDAY
AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IF
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WARMING OCCURS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE H85 WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE SATURDAY. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
WARMER GUIDANCE MAY BE BETTER JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
BELIEVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALSO BETTER FRIDAY
NIGHT BECAUSE OF MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE TEMPERATURE SATURDAY BECAUSE OF
A RELATIVELY WARM START ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE NATION SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND 50. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
IFR AND LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS THAT HAD OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING
APPEAR TO BE LIFTING AND EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE WEAK RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
LIGHT WIND SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE FOG. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -5 FRIDAY
AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IF
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WARMING OCCURS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE H85 WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE SATURDAY. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
WARMER GUIDANCE MAY BE BETTER JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
BELIEVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALSO BETTER FRIDAY
NIGHT BECAUSE OF MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE TEMPERATURE SATURDAY BECAUSE OF
A RELATIVELY WARM START ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE NATION SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND 50. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
IFR AND LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS THAT HAD OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING
APPEAR TO BE LIFTING AND EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011015
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
615 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS HELPED CAUSE AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
DISSIPATE THE FOG BEFORE 1000 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
LIGHT WIND SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE FOG. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -5 FRIDAY
AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IF
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WARMING OCCURS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE H85 WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE SATURDAY. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
WARMER GUIDANCE MAY BE BETTER JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
BELIEVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALSO BETTER FRIDAY
NIGHT BECAUSE OF MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE TEMPERATURE SATURDAY BECAUSE OF
A RELATIVELY WARM START ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE NATION SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND 50. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING THAN FOG DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF 20 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS MORNING....ALTHOUGH
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WAS OBSERVED AS WELL EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCTD-BKN LIFR STRATUS AT SEVERAL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES AFTER 14Z. FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
SFC WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY SE AROUND 5 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP CAUSE AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE
THE FOG BEFORE 1000 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
LIGHT WIND SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE FOG. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -5 FRIDAY
AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IF
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WARMING OCCURS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE H85 WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE SATURDAY. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
WARMER GUIDANCE MAY BE BETTER JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
BELIEVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALSO BETTER FRIDAY
NIGHT BECAUSE OF MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE TEMPERATURE SATURDAY BECAUSE OF
A RELATIVELY WARM START ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE NATION SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND 50. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING THAN FOG DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF 20 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS MORNING....ALTHOUGH
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WAS OBSERVED AS WELL EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCTD-BKN LIFR STRATUS AT SEVERAL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES AFTER 14Z. FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
SFC WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY SE AROUND 5 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP CAUSE AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE
THE FOG BEFORE 1000 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
LIGHT WIND SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE FOG. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -5 FRIDAY
AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IF
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WARMING OCCURS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE H85 WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE SATURDAY. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
WARMER GUIDANCE MAY BE BETTER JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
BELIEVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALSO BETTER FRIDAY
NIGHT BECAUSE OF MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE TEMPERATURE SATURDAY BECAUSE OF
A RELATIVELY WARM START ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE NATION SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND 50. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING THAN FOG DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF 20 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS MORNING....ALTHOUGH
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WAS OBSERVED AS WELL EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCTD-BKN LIFR STRATUS AT SEVERAL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES AFTER 14Z. FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
SFC WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY SE AROUND 5 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 010655
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP CAUSE AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD DISSIPATE
THE FOG BEFORE 1000 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
LIGHT WIND SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE FOG. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S -4 TO -5 FRIDAY
AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IF
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WARMING OCCURS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE H85 WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
DRYING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE SATURDAY. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
WARMER GUIDANCE MAY BE BETTER JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
BELIEVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALSO BETTER FRIDAY
NIGHT BECAUSE OF MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL WITH THE TEMPERATURE SATURDAY BECAUSE OF
A RELATIVELY WARM START ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE NATION SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND 50. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT OCCASIONAL
IFR/LIFR AT AGS/OGB. STILL EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AT AGS/OGB...ESPECIALLY 06Z-13Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB/DNL 09Z-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
ALL SITES AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 302344
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
744 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT PROMOTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME LIGHT OR CALM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO DROP TO AROUND 60
DEGREES BY MORNING. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES BY
AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT THAT DAY TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM FRIDAY MORNING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
FROM UPPER SUPPORT PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST. POPS FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING HAVE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND ARE
NOW IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY...50 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE COOLEST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS...PER CLIMATOLOGY...INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. STILL EXPECT
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AT AGS/OGB...ESPECIALLY 06Z-13Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB/DNL 09Z-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
ALL SITES AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 302344
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
744 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT PROMOTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME LIGHT OR CALM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO DROP TO AROUND 60
DEGREES BY MORNING. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES BY
AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT THAT DAY TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM FRIDAY MORNING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
FROM UPPER SUPPORT PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST. POPS FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING HAVE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND ARE
NOW IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY...50 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE COOLEST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS...PER CLIMATOLOGY...INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. STILL EXPECT
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AT AGS/OGB...ESPECIALLY 06Z-13Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB/DNL 09Z-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
ALL SITES AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE VIEW SHOWING TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE AREA IS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH OF THESE
LOWS WILL REMAIN/TRACK FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE CWA TO HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ONCE
AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO
DROP TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES BY
AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT THAT DAY TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM FRIDAY MORNING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
FROM UPPER SUPPORT PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST. POPS FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING HAVE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND ARE
NOW IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY...50 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE COOLEST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS...PER CLIMATOLOGY...INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES OF AGS/OGB FOR A FEW
HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB/DNL 11Z-13Z
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL SITES AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 302100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE VIEW SHOWING TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE AREA IS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH OF THESE
LOWS WILL REMAIN/TRACK FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE CWA TO HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ONCE
AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO
DROP TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES BY
AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT THAT DAY TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM FRIDAY MORNING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
FROM UPPER SUPPORT PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST. POPS FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING HAVE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND ARE
NOW IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY...50 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE COOLEST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS...PER CLIMATOLOGY...INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES OF AGS/OGB FOR A FEW
HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB/DNL 11Z-13Z
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL SITES AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301825
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
225 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE VIEW SHOWING TWO AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE AREA IS OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH OF THESE LOWS WILL REMAIN/TRACK FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM THE CWA TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH LEAVES THE CWA
BASICALLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...AREA WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING. WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABLE TO DROP TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES BY
AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT THAT DAY TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM FRIDAY MORNING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
FROM UPPER SUPPORT PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST. POPS FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING HAVE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND ARE
NOW IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY...50 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE COOLEST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS...PER CLIMATOLOGY...INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SOME FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES OF AGS/OGB FOR A FEW
HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB/DNL...BUT
CONFIDENCE TO HIGH ENOUGH THERE TO PLACE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301825
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
225 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE VIEW SHOWING TWO AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE AREA IS OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH OF THESE LOWS WILL REMAIN/TRACK FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM THE CWA TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH LEAVES THE CWA
BASICALLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...AREA WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING. WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABLE TO DROP TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES BY
AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT THAT DAY TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM FRIDAY MORNING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
FROM UPPER SUPPORT PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST. POPS FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING HAVE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND ARE
NOW IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY...50 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE COOLEST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS...PER CLIMATOLOGY...INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SOME FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES OF AGS/OGB FOR A FEW
HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB/DNL...BUT
CONFIDENCE TO HIGH ENOUGH THERE TO PLACE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301506
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1106 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE VIEW SHOWING TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE AREA IS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
BOTH OF THESE LOWS WILL REMAIN/TRACK FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE CWA
TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH LEAVES THE CWA BASICALLY DRY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...AREA WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING. WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABLE TO DROP TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SLIGHT
WARMING EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S. FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SOME FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES OF AGS/OGB FOR A FEW
HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB/DNL...BUT
CONFIDENCE TO HIGH ENOUGH THERE TO PLACE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 301506
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1106 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE VIEW SHOWING TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE AREA IS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
BOTH OF THESE LOWS WILL REMAIN/TRACK FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE CWA
TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH LEAVES THE CWA BASICALLY DRY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...AREA WILL START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING. WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABLE TO DROP TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SLIGHT
WARMING EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S. FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SOME FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES OF AGS/OGB FOR A FEW
HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB/DNL...BUT
CONFIDENCE TO HIGH ENOUGH THERE TO PLACE IN TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KCAE 301311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
911 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS...ALONG WITH AREA WEB CAMS...STILL
INDICATE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CSRA AND MIDLANDS...AND ALONG SOME RIVER
VALLEYS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.

FOR THE REMINDER OF THE DAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
DRY AIR ALOFT.  BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE
LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE.

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 301311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
911 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS...ALONG WITH AREA WEB CAMS...STILL
INDICATE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG STILL IN PLACES...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CSRA AND MIDLANDS...AND ALONG SOME RIVER
VALLEYS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.

FOR THE REMINDER OF THE DAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
DRY AIR ALOFT.  BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE
LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE.

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KCAE 301213
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
813 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH MIDLANDS...ALONG
WITH THE NORTHWESTERN CSRA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE AREAS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY MID MORNING.
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020-021-025-026.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 301213
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
813 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH MIDLANDS...ALONG
WITH THE NORTHWESTERN CSRA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE AREAS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY MID MORNING.
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020-021-025-026.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040.

&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 301041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY MID
MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE
LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 301041
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS...WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY MID
MORNING. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE
LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301005
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
605 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING...MOS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301005
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
605 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING...MOS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. WEAK LLJ JUST ENOUGH TO DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300634
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
234 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING...MOS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND 15Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300634
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
234 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DRY AIR
ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS SHOULD
DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING...MOS TEMPERATURES
APPEAR ON TARGET IN THE LOWER 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR OK...WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...NEAR 60
MOST AREAS. WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED...MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND 15Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
115 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND 15Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
115 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND 15Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.  EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-16Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300229
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS/DNL...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-17Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
811 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE
SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS/DNL...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-17Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
811 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END COMPLETELY ONCE THE
SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FA WHERE THE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ANY CLEARING OF CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HORUS...ESPECIALLY AT
AGS/DNL...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES 14Z-17Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 292107
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
507 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID-MORNING TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN
TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING CLOUDS.

POTENTIAL FOR FOG APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WITH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY CLEARING COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT AGS/DNL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR FROM LATE NIGHT TO AROUND SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 292107
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
507 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND MID-MORNING TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN
TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING CLOUDS.

POTENTIAL FOR FOG APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WITH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY CLEARING COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT AGS/DNL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR FROM LATE NIGHT TO AROUND SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS DRIER AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 292100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF AGS/DNL/OGB. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS
AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR AROUND
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 292100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF AGS/DNL/OGB. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS
AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR AROUND
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291747
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF AGS/DNL/OGB. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS
AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR AROUND
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KCAE 291747
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES
PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BE OFF THE GA COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BEGIN CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN. DO NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A WEDGE PATTERN
WITH THIS HIGH...DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH AROUND
80...THEN READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S RETURN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER SUPPORT
PERSPECTIVE.  MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.  RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF AGS/DNL/OGB. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN TO AN END AND BEGIN CLEARING
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS
AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IFR AROUND
SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 30/15Z AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS62 KCAE 291553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1153 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES PUMPING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. GULF LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING
REMOVED POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH WSR-88D NETWORK INDICATING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN DIMINISHING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN AND LIFTING CIGS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT AGS/OGB...HOWEVER WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 291553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1153 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES PUMPING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SOME HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. GULF LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OFF THE GA COAST
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER
EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING
REMOVED POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH WSR-88D NETWORK INDICATING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN DIMINISHING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN AND LIFTING CIGS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT AGS/OGB...HOWEVER WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 291047
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPEARS WEAK WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO WEAK WEDGE/RAIN. RAISED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON SREF
AND LOWER QPF EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS AND PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS INDICATE
WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF. WEAK LIFT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH MIDLANDS AND LOWER
QPF...SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCES/LIFT IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO HIGH POPS APPEAR ON TRACK. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW WITH LIFTED INDEX ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE REGION AND MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ANY
THUNDER PROBABLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE STRONGEST
LIFT EXPECTED. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TONIGHT AND
SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE SO LOWERED POPS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING REMOVED
POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT
AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO
FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH
OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 291047
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPEARS WEAK WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO WEAK WEDGE/RAIN. RAISED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON SREF
AND LOWER QPF EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS AND PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS INDICATE
WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF. WEAK LIFT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH MIDLANDS AND LOWER
QPF...SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCES/LIFT IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO HIGH POPS APPEAR ON TRACK. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW WITH LIFTED INDEX ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE REGION AND MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ANY
THUNDER PROBABLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE STRONGEST
LIFT EXPECTED. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TONIGHT AND
SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE SO LOWERED POPS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING REMOVED
POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT
AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO
FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH
OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290709
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
309 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CLEARING
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO THE
RAIN THEN WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
APPEARS WEAK WEDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO WEAK WEDGE/RAIN. RAISED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON SREF
AND LOWER QPF EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS AND PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS INDICATE
WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GULF. WEAK LIFT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH MIDLANDS AND LOWER
QPF...SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IN THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCES/LIFT IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO HIGH POPS APPEAR ON TRACK. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN IN THOSE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW WITH LIFTED INDEX ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE REGION AND MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ANY
THUNDER PROBABLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS WHERE STRONGEST
LIFT EXPECTED. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TONIGHT AND
SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE SO LOWERED POPS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE MORNING BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND FAST MOVING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT WEDGE WILL QUICKLY ERODE AND WITH LACK OF FORCING REMOVED
POPS...AND RAISED TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. RAISED TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
BASED ON LATEST MOS ANS SREF TRENDS WITH RIDGING ACROSS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. AGS/DNL/OGB ALREADY HAVE MVFR
CIGS AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL
BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB
AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 290540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. AGS/DNL/OGB ALREADY HAVE MVFR
CIGS AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL
BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB
AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PUSH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES NORTH TO 1.9 INCHES
SOUTH. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE GULF. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND A FEW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CSRA
AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RESTRICT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS VERY
CLOSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BE SPREADING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PUSH EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO
SWING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER SYSTEM TO
TAP AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THIS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.  WILL HOLD ONTO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIURNAL WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
EXPECTED...SO ONLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MORNING LOWS
ON MONDAY.  MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 60S AGAIN.  WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BOTH ALOFT ANT AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME.  A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED IN THE CSRA AT AGS/DNL AND ALSO
OGB...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. AGS/DNL/OGB ALREADY HAVE MVFR
CIGS AND EXPECT THEM TO LOWER BELOW 2000 FT AFTER 14Z WHEN RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AGS/DNL
BETWEEN 16Z-20Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO FALL BELOW MVFR AT CAE/CUB
AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST 10 MPH OR LESS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THE WARM SECTOR
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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