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000
FXUS62 KCAE 110900
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A DRY FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AND MUCH LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKING EASTWARD WITH A MOISTURE
INCREASE IN THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
SHOULD OCCUR BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR
PRECIPITATION AS INDICATED BY MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND JUST WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
WESTERLY H85 FLOW. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE POPS WITH A
FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTION. THE TOP-DOWN METHOD USING THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORTED A MIX
OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL INDICATED
QPF OF 0.01 OF AN INCH OR LESS. FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...30 TO 70
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 7-10
KTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING LATER TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 110320
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1020 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. LESS WIND
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH LIGHTER WIND AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 110320
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1020 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. LESS WIND
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH LIGHTER WIND AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 102356
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
656 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. LESS WIND
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO BE COOLER...IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP
INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 102356
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
656 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. LESS WIND
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO BE COOLER...IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP
INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 102356
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
656 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. LESS WIND
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO BE COOLER...IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP
INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. WILL SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 102135
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
435 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. LESS WIND
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO BE COOLER...IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP
INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 102108
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
408 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE GFS
LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23
TO 20 KNOTS. WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING AND MIDDLE 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 102108
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
408 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE GFS
LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23
TO 20 KNOTS. WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING AND MIDDLE 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 102108
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
408 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE GFS
LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23
TO 20 KNOTS. WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING AND MIDDLE 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 102001
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE GFS
LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23
TO 20 KNOTS. WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING AND MIDDLE 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DEVELOP WEAK LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DRIER WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR FROZEN PRECIP WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING THE BEST MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO DEVELOP THE LOW WHICH MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS
IF VERIFIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL LINGER AS WARM ADVECTION OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALLOW FOR WEDGE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STAYS
IN. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE COLDEST SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS DUE
TO MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HOWEVER WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
VARYING GREATLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z...SUBSIDING BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS LAMP AND NAM
BUFKIT WITH GUSTS 23 TO 29 KNOTS. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE
SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION AND CONSIDERING FUEL MOISTURE
AND COLD TEMPERATURES WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING
DESPITE THE WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 101737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1237 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GFS LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23 TO 29 KNOTS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. AN H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND THE
GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
LOW DEEPENS FARTHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE POPS
RANGED FROM 10 TO 60 PERCENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS LOWEST AND NAM
HIGHEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN.
LEANED TOWARD THE SREF FOR THE TIMING AND HELD OFF INCLUDING POPS
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY NAM ARE CORRECT WITH A FASTER TIMING SLEET AND SNOW
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR WOULD EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF WEAK FORCING
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED QPF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. THE NAM DEPICTED .01 TO .1 OF AN INCH. WE USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE
NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MOS HAS POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A FEW STRATO CU THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CLOUDS/CEILINGS
NOT AN ISSUE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE WEST AT 12 TO 18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARDS SUNSET. WINDS WILL STILL BE FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT FROM 5 TO 8 KNOTS. ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND EXPECT WINDS FROM THE WEST
BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE WITH SPEEDS FROM 5 TO 8 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS LAMP AND NAM
BUFKIT WITH GUSTS 23 TO 29 KNOTS. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE
SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION AND CONSIDERING FUEL MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING DESPITE THE
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS62 KCAE 101659
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1159 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GFS LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23 TO 29 KNOTS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. AN H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND THE
GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
LOW DEEPENS FARTHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE POPS
RANGED FROM 10 TO 60 PERCENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS LOWEST AND NAM
HIGHEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN.
LEANED TOWARD THE SREF FOR THE TIMING AND HELD OFF INCLUDING POPS
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY NAM ARE CORRECT WITH A FASTER TIMING SLEET AND SNOW
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR WOULD EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF WEAK FORCING
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED QPF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. THE NAM DEPICTED .01 TO .1 OF AN INCH. WE USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE
NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MOS HAS POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A FEW LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL STILL BE
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT FROM 5 TO 8 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS LAMP AND NAM
BUFKIT WITH GUSTS 23 TO 29 KNOTS. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE
SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION AND CONSIDERING FUEL MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING DESPITE THE
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77
FIRE WEATHER...77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 101659
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1159 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GFS LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23 TO 29 KNOTS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. AN H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND THE
GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
LOW DEEPENS FARTHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE POPS
RANGED FROM 10 TO 60 PERCENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS LOWEST AND NAM
HIGHEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN.
LEANED TOWARD THE SREF FOR THE TIMING AND HELD OFF INCLUDING POPS
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY NAM ARE CORRECT WITH A FASTER TIMING SLEET AND SNOW
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR WOULD EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF WEAK FORCING
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED QPF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. THE NAM DEPICTED .01 TO .1 OF AN INCH. WE USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE
NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MOS HAS POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A FEW LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL STILL BE
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT FROM 5 TO 8 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS LAMP AND NAM
BUFKIT WITH GUSTS 23 TO 29 KNOTS. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE
SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION AND CONSIDERING FUEL MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING DESPITE THE
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77
FIRE WEATHER...77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 101659
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1159 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GFS LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23 TO 29 KNOTS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. AN H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND THE
GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
LOW DEEPENS FARTHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE POPS
RANGED FROM 10 TO 60 PERCENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS LOWEST AND NAM
HIGHEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN.
LEANED TOWARD THE SREF FOR THE TIMING AND HELD OFF INCLUDING POPS
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY NAM ARE CORRECT WITH A FASTER TIMING SLEET AND SNOW
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR WOULD EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF WEAK FORCING
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED QPF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. THE NAM DEPICTED .01 TO .1 OF AN INCH. WE USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE
NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MOS HAS POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A FEW LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL STILL BE
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT FROM 5 TO 8 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS LAMP AND NAM
BUFKIT WITH GUSTS 23 TO 29 KNOTS. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE
SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION AND CONSIDERING FUEL MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING DESPITE THE
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77
FIRE WEATHER...77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 101131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE GFS
LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23
TO 29 KNOTS. WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. AN H7 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT CLOUDINESS IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FLURRIES OCCURRED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN NORTH GEORGIA BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IN THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS LESS
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS AND THE
HRRR. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING AND
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND THE
GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
LOW DEEPENS FARTHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE POPS
RANGED FROM 10 TO 60 PERCENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS LOWEST AND NAM
HIGHEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN.
LEANED TOWARD THE SREF FOR THE TIMING AND HELD OFF INCLUDING POPS
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY NAM ARE CORRECT WITH A FASTER TIMING SLEET AND SNOW
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR WOULD EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF WEAK FORCING
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED QPF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. THE NAM DEPICTED .01 TO .1 OF AN INCH. WE USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE
NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MOS HAS POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z...SUBSIDING BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS LAMP AND NAM
BUFKIT WITH GUSTS 23 TO 29 KNOTS. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE
SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION AND CONSIDERING FUEL MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING DESPITE THE
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 101131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE GFS
LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23
TO 29 KNOTS. WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. AN H7 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT CLOUDINESS IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FLURRIES OCCURRED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN NORTH GEORGIA BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IN THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS LESS
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS AND THE
HRRR. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING AND
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND THE
GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
LOW DEEPENS FARTHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE POPS
RANGED FROM 10 TO 60 PERCENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS LOWEST AND NAM
HIGHEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN.
LEANED TOWARD THE SREF FOR THE TIMING AND HELD OFF INCLUDING POPS
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY NAM ARE CORRECT WITH A FASTER TIMING SLEET AND SNOW
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR WOULD EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF WEAK FORCING
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED QPF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. THE NAM DEPICTED .01 TO .1 OF AN INCH. WE USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE
NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MOS HAS POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z...SUBSIDING BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS LAMP AND NAM
BUFKIT WITH GUSTS 23 TO 29 KNOTS. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE
SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION AND CONSIDERING FUEL MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING DESPITE THE
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 101131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE GFS
LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23
TO 29 KNOTS. WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. AN H7 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HELPING SUPPORT CLOUDINESS IN THE CSRA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FLURRIES OCCURRED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN NORTH GEORGIA BUT
THE CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IN THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS LESS
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS AND THE
HRRR. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING AND
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND THE
GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
LOW DEEPENS FARTHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE POPS
RANGED FROM 10 TO 60 PERCENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS LOWEST AND NAM
HIGHEST. WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN.
LEANED TOWARD THE SREF FOR THE TIMING AND HELD OFF INCLUDING POPS
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE GFS AND
ESPECIALLY NAM ARE CORRECT WITH A FASTER TIMING SLEET AND SNOW
COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR WOULD EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF WEAK FORCING
IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED QPF 0.01 OF AN
INCH OR LESS. THE NAM DEPICTED .01 TO .1 OF AN INCH. WE USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE
NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MOS HAS POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z...SUBSIDING BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS LAMP AND NAM
BUFKIT WITH GUSTS 23 TO 29 KNOTS. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE
SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION AND CONSIDERING FUEL MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING DESPITE THE
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 100943
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
443 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY BECAUSE OF THE FLOW
BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. THE GFS
LAMP AND NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 23
TO 29 KNOTS. WE HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING AND MIDDLE 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 5. LESS WIND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE GETS
CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WILL BE COLD. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE LOW NEAR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND THE
GREATER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD OCCUR AS THE LOW DEEPENS
FARTHER EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE POPS RANGED FROM 10
TO 60 PERCENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS LOWEST AND NAM HIGHEST. WE LEANED
TOWARD THE LOWER POPS BASED ON THE PATTERN. LEANED TOWARD THE SREF
FOR THE TIMING AND HELD OFF INCLUDING POPS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
LATER FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY NAM ARE CORRECT
WITH A FASTER TIMING SLEET AND SNOW COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR WOULD EXPECT
LIGHT AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF WEAK FORCING IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED QPF 0.01 OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE NAM
DEPICTED .01 TO .1 OF AN INCH. WE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD AND DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE
NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR MAY BE LINGER WITH A WEDGE PATTERN MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MOS HAS POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND 20 TO 50 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z...SUBSIDING BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BREEZY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS LAMP AND NAM
BUFKIT WITH GUSTS 23 TO 29 KNOTS. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE
SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION AND CONSIDERING FUEL MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR WE HAVE NOT ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING DESPITE THE
WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 100538
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1238 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND
AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER WARMER AREA LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 100538
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1238 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND
AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER WARMER AREA LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 100345
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SEEING SNOW FLURRIES AND
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA AS OF 03Z. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCUMULATE UP TO A
DUSTING ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN JUST
WET. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OBSERVATIONS
SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
AT LANCASTER AND CHERAW CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WHEREAS
JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AT NEWBERRY AND WINNSBORO DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 20S. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS
WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WARMER AREA LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 100300
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SEEING SNOW FLURRIES AND
A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA AS OF 03Z. NO GROUND ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. OBSERVATIONS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER
TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS AT LANCASTER AND CHERAW CURRENTLY 10
DEGREES WHEREAS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AT NEWBERRY AND
WINNSBORO DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 20S. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA LAKES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 100128
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
828 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SEEING SNOW
FLURRIES AND A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS OF 0130Z. NO ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. OBSERVATIONS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG THE
NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS AT LANCASTER AND CHERAW
CURRENTLY 10 DEGREES WHEREAS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AT
NEWBERRY AND WINNSBORO DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 20S. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME
TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA
LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT. SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH
03Z IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR 06Z-09Z.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
BY 03Z THEN BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 100128
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
828 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SEEING SNOW
FLURRIES AND A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS OF 0130Z. NO ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. OBSERVATIONS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG THE
NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS AT LANCASTER AND CHERAW
CURRENTLY 10 DEGREES WHEREAS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AT
NEWBERRY AND WINNSBORO DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 20S. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME
TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA
LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT. SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH
03Z IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR 06Z-09Z.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
BY 03Z THEN BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 100128
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
828 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SEEING SNOW
FLURRIES AND A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS OF 0130Z. NO ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. OBSERVATIONS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR ALONG THE
NC/SC BORDER TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS AT LANCASTER AND CHERAW
CURRENTLY 10 DEGREES WHEREAS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AT
NEWBERRY AND WINNSBORO DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 20S. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME
TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA
LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT. SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH
03Z IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR 06Z-09Z.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
BY 03Z THEN BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 100007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
707 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES EARLY
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE
STATE. FLURRIES ARE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR AND BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD. WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS FROM
COUNTY OFFICIALS AND THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA OF SNOW FLURRIES. AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO FALLEN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS
WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WARMER AREA LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT. SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH
03Z IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR 06Z-09Z.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
BY 03Z THEN BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 100007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
707 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES EARLY
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE
STATE. FLURRIES ARE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR AND BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD. WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS FROM
COUNTY OFFICIALS AND THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA OF SNOW FLURRIES. AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO FALLEN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS
WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WARMER AREA LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT. SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH
03Z IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR 06Z-09Z.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
BY 03Z THEN BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 100007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
707 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES EARLY
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE
STATE. FLURRIES ARE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR AND BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD. WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS FROM
COUNTY OFFICIALS AND THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA OF SNOW FLURRIES. AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO FALLEN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS
WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WARMER AREA LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT. SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH
03Z IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR 06Z-09Z.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
BY 03Z THEN BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 092226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
526 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES EARLY
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE
STATE. FLURRIES ARE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR AND BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD. WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS FROM
COUNTY OFFICIALS AND THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA OF SNOW FLURRIES. AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO FALLEN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS
WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WARMER AREA LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY EVENING IN A
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION
RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT. WEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AFTER
SUNSET.

DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO
PICK UP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z WITH MIXING COMMENCING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 092226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
526 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES EARLY
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE
STATE. FLURRIES ARE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR AND BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD. WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS FROM
COUNTY OFFICIALS AND THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA OF SNOW FLURRIES. AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO FALLEN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS
WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WARMER AREA LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY EVENING IN A
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION
RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT. WEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AFTER
SUNSET.

DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO
PICK UP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z WITH MIXING COMMENCING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 092226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
526 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TO SEE SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES EARLY
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE
STATE. FLURRIES ARE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR AND BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD. WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS FROM
COUNTY OFFICIALS AND THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA OF SNOW FLURRIES. AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO FALLEN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS
WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WARMER AREA LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY EVENING IN A
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION
RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT. WEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AFTER
SUNSET.

DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO
PICK UP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z WITH MIXING COMMENCING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 092126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
426 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
PERSISTENT NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SOME
SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. WE HAVE
RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS FROM COUNTY OFFICIALS AND THROUGH SOCIAL
MEDIA OF SNOW FLURRIES. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALSO FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS
WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WARMER AREA LAKES. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY EVENING IN A
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION
RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT. WEST 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS...SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT AFTER
SUNSET.

DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO
PICK UP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z WITH MIXING COMMENCING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 092010
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
310 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SOME
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA. WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS FROM COUNTY OFFICIALS
AND THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA OF SNOW FLURRIES. AS PRECIPITATION
FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS
WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WARMER AREA LAKES. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO FEED
INTO THE REGION BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. MAINTAINED
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT SHIFTS INTO
OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVELS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UPPER
ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR REGION BY SUN NIGHT/MON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A
WEDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY NEARING FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE COULD COME INTO QUESTION. HOWEVER RAIN APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000
FT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ONLY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES. WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO ONCE
AGAIN BEGIN TO PICK UP IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z WITH
MIXING COMMENCING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 091829
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
129 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EWD FROM GA INTO
SC...LIGHT AREA OF MIXED PCPN WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS. HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLURRIES IN MCCORMICK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALSO FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND
GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION OR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 091829
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
129 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EWD FROM GA INTO
SC...LIGHT AREA OF MIXED PCPN WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS. HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLURRIES IN MCCORMICK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALSO FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND
GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION OR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 091703
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1203 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EWD FROM GA INTO
SC...LIGHT AREA OF MIXED PCPN WITH MOST AREAS REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS. HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLURRIES IN MCCORMICK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS...TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALSO FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AROUND A DEGREE OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS. AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSRA. REPORTS OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN GA. RADAR SHOWS SOME
LIGHT ECHOES OVER THAT REGION TRYING TO PUSH EWD. THOUGH WIND
GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION OR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 091621
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1121 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AROUND A DEGREE OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS. AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSRA. REPORTS OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN GA. RADAR SHOWS SOME
LIGHT ECHOES OVER THAT REGION TRYING TO PUSH EWD. THOUGH WIND
GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 4000-8000 FT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION OR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 091134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT. ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY. UPPER ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH...COMBINED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING
CLOUDINESS EAST INTO OUR FA...EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. THOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER
AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH MIXING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 5000-8000 FT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY PRECIPITATION OR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL PRECLUDE
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 091134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT. ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY. UPPER ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH...COMBINED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING
CLOUDINESS EAST INTO OUR FA...EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. THOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER
AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH MIXING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 5000-8000 FT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY PRECIPITATION OR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL PRECLUDE
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 091134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT. ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY. UPPER ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH...COMBINED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING
CLOUDINESS EAST INTO OUR FA...EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. THOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH
SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WARMER
AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH MIXING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 5000-8000 FT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY PRECIPITATION OR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WILL PRECLUDE
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 090712
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ISSUED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT UPPER
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...COMBINED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING CLOUDINESS EAST INTO OUR FA...EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER
LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTREM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS BUT WILL BECOME STRONGER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS AROUND 5000-8000 FT BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION OR
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 090712
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ISSUED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT UPPER
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...COMBINED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING CLOUDINESS EAST INTO OUR FA...EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER
LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTREM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS BUT WILL BECOME STRONGER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS AROUND 5000-8000 FT BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION OR
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 090712
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD AND DRY PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A PERSISTENT
NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DIRECT COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST EXPECTED TO LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ISSUED LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT UPPER
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...COMBINED WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING CLOUDINESS EAST INTO OUR FA...EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER
LAND AREAS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON WARMER AREA LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

PERSISTENT UPPER PATTERN...WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE W
CONUS...AND TROUGH E CONUS. A GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MAINTAINED LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
NOTED. FOR THAT REASON...INCLINED TO KEEP THAT TIME PERIOD DRY FOR
NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AIR
MASS TO SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
SUN/MON...WITH UPPER ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR
REGION BY SUN NT/MON. ACCEPTED GUIDANCE BLEND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GIVEN A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTREM...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES COULD BE IN PLAY...BUT
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER
THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS BUT WILL BECOME STRONGER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS AROUND 5000-8000 FT BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION OR
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 090552
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY. A 40KT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PROMOTE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. DESPITE MIXING...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL
FEED COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND
INCONSISTENCY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCE...STUCK
WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS BUT WILL BECOME STRONGER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS AROUND 5000-8000 FT BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION OR
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 090053
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 01Z SHOWS MOST ALL OF THE LIGHT RAINFALL HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S IN THE UPSTATE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE REST OF
THE NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY. A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROMOTE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH. DESPITE MIXING...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL
FEED COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND
INCONSISTENCY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCE...STUCK
WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP ALONG SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF -SHRA 19Z-23Z...HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN VFR.
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON OCCASION. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOCAL MODEL PRETTY GOOD FORECASTING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING PRECIP EAST OF TAF SITES
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...87





000
FXUS62 KCAE 081958
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
258 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING HEIGHT
FALLS OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT VALUE OF AROUND
0.25 INCHES. RADAR RETURNS TO THE WEST ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE
OBSERVATIONS. INDICATING THAT THE PRECIP IS EVAPORATING IN THE DRY
LOWER LEVELS. ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT
AND BRIEF AS THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE THIS EVENING.

DEEP MIXING WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WIND
GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...JUST BELOW OUR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL
FEED COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND
INCONSISTENCY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCE...STUCK
WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP ALONG SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF -SHRA 19Z-23Z...HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN VFR.
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON OCCASION. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOCAL MODEL PRETTY GOOD FORECASTING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING PRECIP EAST OF TAF SITES
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...87





000
FXUS62 KCAE 081929
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
229 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING HEIGHT
FALLS OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST MOISTURE...HOWEVER ITS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN OBSERVED.
THEREFORE FAVORED THE DRIER NAM. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING SHOWS A
PWAT VALUE OF AROUND 0.25 INCHES. RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPSTATE ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OBSERVATIONS. INDICATING THAT THE
PRECIP IS EVAPORATING IN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THE FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

DEEP MIXING WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WIND
GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...JUST BELOW OUR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CONUS WITH TROUGH E CONUS. A
GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED COLD AND GENERALLY DRY. MODELS MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE
WEST/UPPER TROUGH EAST REGIME. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT. GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL FAVOR NO POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP ALONG SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF -SHRA 19Z-23Z...HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN VFR.
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON OCCASION. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOCAL MODEL PRETTY GOOD FORECASTING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING PRECIP EAST OF TAF SITES
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...87





000
FXUS62 KCAE 081752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING HEIGHT
FALLS OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST MOISTURE...HOWEVER ITS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN OBSERVED.
THEREFORE FAVORED THE DRIER NAM. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING SHOWS A
PWAT VALUE OF AROUND 0.25 INCHES. RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPSTATE ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OBSERVATIONS. INDICATING THAT THE
PRECIP IS EVAPORATING IN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THE FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

DEEP MIXING WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WIND
GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...JUST BELOW OUR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CONUS WITH TROUGH E CONUS. A
GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED COLD AND GENERALLY DRY. MODELS MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE
WEST/UPPER TROUGH EAST REGIME. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT. GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL FAVOR NO POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE WIND PICKING UP A BIT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOST
ASSOCIATED PRECIP NOT REACHING THE GROUND PER LATEST UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS. LOCAL MODEL SHOWS LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW
AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...87





000
FXUS62 KCAE 081521
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1021 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING HEIGHT
FALLS OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOST MOISTURE...HOWEVER ITS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN OBSERVED.
THEREFORE FAVORED THE DRIER NAM. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING SHOWS A
PWAT VALUE OF AROUND 0.25 INCHES. RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPSTATE ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OBSERVATIONS. INDICATING THAT THE
PRECIP IS EVAPORATING IN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AS THE FRONT QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

DEEP MIXING WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WIND
GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...JUST BELOW OUR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CONUS WITH TROUGH E CONUS. A
GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED COLD AND GENERALLY DRY. MODELS MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE
WEST/UPPER TROUGH EAST REGIME. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT. GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL FAVOR NO POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT TAF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT FOR
DELAYED WIND SPEED INCREASE NEEDED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. LOCAL MODEL SHOWS LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW
AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...63
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...87





000
FXUS62 KCAE 081453
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
953 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE TODAY AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
E KY/TN WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.5 INCH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA 19Z-01Z TIME FRAME. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS OF
CHANCE POPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...JUST BELOW OUR LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CONUS WITH TROUGH E CONUS. A
GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED COLD AND GENERALLY DRY. MODELS MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE
WEST/UPPER TROUGH EAST REGIME. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT. GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL FAVOR NO POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT TAF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT FOR
DELAYED WIND SPEED INCREASE NEEDED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. LOCAL MODEL SHOWS LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP OUT OF TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW
AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...87





000
FXUS62 KCAE 081132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE TODAY AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
E KY/TN WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.5 INCH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA 19Z-01Z TIME FRAME. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS OF
CHANCE POPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...JUST BELOW OUR LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CONUS WITH TROUGH E CONUS. A
GENERAL NW ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF COLDER AND
DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED COLD AND GENERALLY DRY. MODELS MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGE
WEST/UPPER TROUGH EAST REGIME. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT. GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL FAVOR NO POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY LIMITED.
SMALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER DAYBREAK AND THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS DUE TO INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. MIXING
COMBINED WITH A DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY FOG CONCERNS LATER THIS
MORNING OR MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





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