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000
FXUS62 KCAE 171043
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW REMAINING
IN THE OGB AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW THOSE WHICH FORM COULD TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
CSRA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY STRATUS IN THE AREA SO
BRIEF PERIOD LOW CEILINGS THROUGH 13Z EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR
AGS/DNL AND OGB TERMINALS. VFR DEVELOPING 14Z-15Z ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING...LIKELY NORTH OF CAE/CUB TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MAINLY EAST OR NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF IFR/MVFR BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. HIGHEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE NEAR OGB THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170918
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
518 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW REMAINING
IN THE OGB AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW THOSE WHICH FORM COULD TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
CSRA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 170918
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
518 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL PUSH TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW REMAINING
IN THE OGB AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW THOSE WHICH FORM COULD TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
CSRA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EJECTING THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 170553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170156 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
956 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF
STORMS...ONE ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND
ANOTHER ACROSS UNION COUNTY NC HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE REGION. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE
AREA TAFS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM IN LAURENS COUNTY
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170156 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
956 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF
STORMS...ONE ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND
ANOTHER ACROSS UNION COUNTY NC HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE REGION. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE
AREA TAFS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM IN LAURENS COUNTY
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 162345
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TO NEAR ASHEVILLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDED...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS ALL AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
BUT ONLY SOME PERSISTANT SLOW MOVING SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN
ORANGEBURG COUNTY. SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
CHESTERFIELD AND NEWBERRY COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
HOUR...LIKELY DUE TO UPPER SUPPORT RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH.
WILL HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS THROUGH 03Z AS HRRR INDICATES SOME CONTINUED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING IN THAT AREA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED
BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF
STORMS...ONE ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND
ANOTHER ACROSS UNION COUNTY NC HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE REGION. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE
AREA TAFS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM IN LAURENS COUNTY
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...LCV







000
FXUS62 KCAE 162345
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TO NEAR ASHEVILLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDED...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS ALL AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
BUT ONLY SOME PERSISTANT SLOW MOVING SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN
ORANGEBURG COUNTY. SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
CHESTERFIELD AND NEWBERRY COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO
THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
HOUR...LIKELY DUE TO UPPER SUPPORT RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH.
WILL HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS THROUGH 03Z AS HRRR INDICATES SOME CONTINUED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING IN THAT AREA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED
BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF
STORMS...ONE ACROSS LAURENS COUNTY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS AND
ANOTHER ACROSS UNION COUNTY NC HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE REGION. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UP
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE
AREA TAFS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORM IN LAURENS COUNTY
FOR THE COLUMBIA METRO AREA. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER IN THE MORNING AS CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...LCV








000
FXUS62 KCAE 161753
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS
MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 161753
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS
MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS
MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 161748
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS.
EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MID-LEVEL DRYING BEHIND A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS
MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161619
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART WHERE A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. BELIEVE
MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S
WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING
DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 161619
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1219 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART WHERE A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. BELIEVE
MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. EARLY AFTERNOON LI/S WERE -6 TO -7.
MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF THE
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE-BASED LI/S
WERE -6 TO -7 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING
DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG WIND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161442
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5
TEMPERATURES -9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT
WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES
-9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161442
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST
PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE
HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5
TEMPERATURES -9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT
WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES
-9 TO -10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 161226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED
CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID- LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
826 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE WAS HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE WEST PART LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WE HAVE FORECASTED
CHANCE POPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID- LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE
SHALLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHED
MOISTURE PLUS HEATING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS. USED THE GFS
LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL TREND OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED UPSTREAM H5 TEMPERATURES -9 TO
-10 C. MID-LEVEL DRYING AIDING DOWNDRAFTS AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG WIND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT PLUS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORTED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 161022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. POP
CHANCES WILL LOWER WITH SUNSET WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN
COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEDGE
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MOST SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARD
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO IMPACT
AGS/DNL TERMINALS AROUND 12Z.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRY AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...MVFR TO IFR
FORECAST AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. POP
CHANCES WILL LOWER WITH SUNSET WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AIR MASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN
COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEDGE
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MOST SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARD
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO IMPACT
AGS/DNL TERMINALS AROUND 12Z.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND POSSIBLY SOME
DRY AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...MVFR TO IFR
FORECAST AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 160838
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
438 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. POP
CHANCES WILL LOWER WITH SUNSET WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN
COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEDGE
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 160838
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
438 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE PERSISTENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TODAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. POP
CHANCES WILL LOWER WITH SUNSET WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN CHANGING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN
COOLER AIR. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES
SURROUNDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEDGE
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THE WEDGE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 160539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 160539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. RADAR
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASING DURING THE MORNING AND
EXPECT HIGHER CEILINGS BY MIDDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HOWEVER WITH FRONT SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 160250
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY...THE ERN MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TAFS SITES...ESPECIALLY THE CSRA...BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO BOTH AGS/DNL FOR THAT
PERIOD. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REMAINING TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT
NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
ALL TAF SITES VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...











000
FXUS62 KCAE 160250
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE
WEDGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE EDGES OF THE WEDGE
FRONT WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH MOST SITES
REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY...THE ERN MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TAFS SITES...ESPECIALLY THE CSRA...BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO BOTH AGS/DNL FOR THAT
PERIOD. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REMAINING TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING
WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT
NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
ALL TAF SITES VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...










000
FXUS62 KCAE 152352
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MOST
SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE TAFS SITES BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING WITH
A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST/WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOW
FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ALL TAF SITES VFR
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 152352
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WEAK ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE SURFACE WEDGE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SLOWLY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY
NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY THEN BECOMING
VFR.

WEDGE CONTINUES TO HANG IN ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH MOST
SITES REPORTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WORSENING TO LIFR/IFR AT ALL TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MENTION OF ANY POPS IN TAFS.
HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SCATTERED CONTINUE ACROSS
GA...THE LOWCOUNTRY AND UPSTATE. SOME OF THESE COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE TAFS SITES BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM. WILL ADJUST ADD THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS IF THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIFR/IFR IN THE MORNING WITH
A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST/WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOW
FOG/CEILINGS TO IMPROVE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ALL TAF SITES VFR
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 151855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE OF SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL
EVEN BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING VERY
SLOWLY AND DON`T EXPECT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY AND EXPECT PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AFTER WHICH TIME POPS WILL DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
AROUND 70 TUESDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY THEN VFR.

WEDGE IS HANGING IN AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANY CLEARING IN THE
SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN AGAIN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTERACTS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG TO FORM
AFTER 06Z AT AGS AND OGB AND AFTER 09-10Z CAE...CUB AND DNL. CIGS
WILL ALSO LOWER AGAIN. DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON TUESDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 13-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 151855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE OF SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL
EVEN BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING VERY
SLOWLY AND DON`T EXPECT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY AND EXPECT PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AFTER WHICH TIME POPS WILL DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT
POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OF
THE CSRA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
AROUND 70 TUESDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HOLD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES.
A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY THEN VFR.

WEDGE IS HANGING IN AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANY CLEARING IN THE
SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN AGAIN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTERACTS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG TO FORM
AFTER 06Z AT AGS AND OGB AND AFTER 09-10Z CAE...CUB AND DNL. CIGS
WILL ALSO LOWER AGAIN. DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON TUESDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 13-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 151725
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
125 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
 WEDGE OF SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL
EVEN BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING VERY
SLOWLY AND DONT EXPECT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY AND EXPECT PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AFTER WHICH TIME POPS WILL DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN NORTH OF THE AREA AND BEGIN USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...HOWEVER WITH THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME BREAKS
ALLOWING FOR HEATING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AS THE HIGH
REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY THEN VFR.

WEDGE IS HANGING IN AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANY CLEARING IN THE
SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN AGAIN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTERACTS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG TO FORM
AFTER 06Z AT AGS AND OGB AND AFTER 09-10Z CAE...CUB AND DNL. CIGS
WILL ALSO LOWER AGAIN. DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON TUESDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 13-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 151725
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
125 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
 WEDGE OF SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL
EVEN BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING VERY
SLOWLY AND DONT EXPECT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WEDGE WILL STRUGGLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY FILL IN
QUICKLY AND EXPECT PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AFTER WHICH TIME POPS WILL DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN NORTH OF THE AREA AND BEGIN USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
EARLY MORNING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...HOWEVER WITH THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME BREAKS
ALLOWING FOR HEATING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AS THE HIGH
REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY THEN VFR.

WEDGE IS HANGING IN AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANY CLEARING IN THE
SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY FILL IN AGAIN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTERACTS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT FOG TO FORM
AFTER 06Z AT AGS AND OGB AND AFTER 09-10Z CAE...CUB AND DNL. CIGS
WILL ALSO LOWER AGAIN. DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON TUESDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 13-14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 151151
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEDGE OF SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL
EVEN BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH THIS MORNING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 5K FT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. CONDITIONS
MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES AT 11Z ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AND WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE
THE NEED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ADD SOME LIFT TO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE AREA AND
BEGIN USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...HOWEVER WITH THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME BREAKS
ALLOWING FOR HEATING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AS THE HIGH
REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION...RESULTING WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN IFR AT AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z DUE TO WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY
SATURATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 5K FT THROUGH THE MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IFR WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 16Z.
CEILINGS AND VSBYS FORECAST TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO
IFR. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THE IMPROVEMENT THOUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AGAIN ESPECIALLY AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 151151
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEDGE OF SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL
EVEN BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH THIS MORNING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 5K FT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. CONDITIONS
MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES AT 11Z ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AND WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE
THE NEED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDGE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ADD SOME LIFT TO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE AREA AND
BEGIN USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...HOWEVER WITH THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME BREAKS
ALLOWING FOR HEATING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AS THE HIGH
REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION...RESULTING WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN IFR AT AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z DUE TO WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY
SATURATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 5K FT THROUGH THE MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IFR WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 16Z.
CEILINGS AND VSBYS FORECAST TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO
IFR. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THE IMPROVEMENT THOUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AGAIN ESPECIALLY AT OGB...AGS...AND DNL

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 151035
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GA. SHOWERS WHICH
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS HAVE
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE WEDGE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ADD SOME LIFT TO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE AREA AND
BEGIN USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...HOWEVER WITH THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME BREAKS
ALLOWING FOR HEATING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AS THE HIGH
REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION...RESULTING WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE CSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTH NEAR CAE/CUB TERMINALS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH AT
LEAST 14Z DUE TO WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT.  VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR HOWEVER WITH SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEDGE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY RESULTING IN ONLY
MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. VFR FORECAST LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. AS AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 151035
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GA. SHOWERS WHICH
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS HAVE
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE WEDGE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ADD SOME LIFT TO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE AREA AND
BEGIN USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...HOWEVER WITH THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME BREAKS
ALLOWING FOR HEATING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AS THE HIGH
REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION...RESULTING WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE CSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTH NEAR CAE/CUB TERMINALS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH AT
LEAST 14Z DUE TO WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT.  VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR HOWEVER WITH SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEDGE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY RESULTING IN ONLY
MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. VFR FORECAST LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. AS AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 150836
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GA. SHOWERS WHICH
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS HAVE
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE WEDGE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ADD SOME LIFT TO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE AREA AND
BEGIN USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...HOWEVER WITH THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME BREAKS
ALLOWING FOR HEATING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AS THE HIGH
REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION...RESULTING WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY NEAR CAE/CUB TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. OTHER
SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY MOVE NEAR AGS/DNL TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS WILL LOWER TOWARD MORNING WITH
RESULTING IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FOR LOW CEILINGS IN
THE AGS AND OGB AREAS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MVFR HOWEVER WITH SOME
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEDGE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE
MORNING RESULTING IN ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. VFR
FORECAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AS AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO
THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 150836
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GA. SHOWERS WHICH
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS HAVE
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE WEDGE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ADD SOME LIFT TO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE AREA AND
BEGIN USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US...HOWEVER WITH THE REMAINS
OF THE FRONT PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME BREAKS
ALLOWING FOR HEATING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S TUESDAY WITH UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND AS THE HIGH
REACHES THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY A WEDGE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US AND TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION...RESULTING WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY NEAR CAE/CUB TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. OTHER
SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY MOVE NEAR AGS/DNL TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS WILL LOWER TOWARD MORNING WITH
RESULTING IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FOR LOW CEILINGS IN
THE AGS AND OGB AREAS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MVFR HOWEVER WITH SOME
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEDGE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE
MORNING RESULTING IN ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. VFR
FORECAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AS AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO
THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 150547
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE MODELS
GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG BY MORNING. NOT MUCH OF
A DIURNAL DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWERS SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE OFFSHORE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION...RESULTING WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY NEAR CAE/CUB TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. OTHER
SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY MOVE NEAR AGS/DNL TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS WILL LOWER TOWARD MORNING WITH
RESULTING IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FOR LOW CEILINGS IN
THE AGS AND OGB AREAS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MVFR HOWEVER WITH SOME
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEDGE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE
MORNING RESULTING IN ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. VFR
FORECAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AS AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO
THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 150547
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
147 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE MODELS
GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG BY MORNING. NOT MUCH OF
A DIURNAL DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWERS SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE OFFSHORE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDING INTO
THE REGION...RESULTING WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY NEAR CAE/CUB TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z. OTHER
SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY MOVE NEAR AGS/DNL TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS WILL LOWER TOWARD MORNING WITH
RESULTING IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST FOR LOW CEILINGS IN
THE AGS AND OGB AREAS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MVFR HOWEVER WITH SOME
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEDGE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE
MORNING RESULTING IN ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. VFR
FORECAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AS AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO
THE EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR LIGHT FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 150246
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1046 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE MODELS
GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG BY MORNING. NOT MUCH OF
A DIURNAL DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWERS SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE OFFSHORE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CSRA
UP THROUGH BAMBERG AND EASTER ORANGEBURG COUNTIES. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR/IFR THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND MODELS INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CEILINGS...CLOSE TO VFR...TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH WEDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT TOMORROW AND THIS WILL AID TO LINGER THE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 150246
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1046 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE MODELS
GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG BY MORNING. NOT MUCH OF
A DIURNAL DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWERS SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE OFFSHORE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CSRA
UP THROUGH BAMBERG AND EASTER ORANGEBURG COUNTIES. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR/IFR THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND MODELS INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CEILINGS...CLOSE TO VFR...TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH WEDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT TOMORROW AND THIS WILL AID TO LINGER THE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 142348
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE MODELS
GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG BY MORNING. NOT MUCH OF
A DIURNAL DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWERS SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE OFFSHORE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CSRA
UP THROUGH BAMBERG AND EASTER ORANGEBURG COUNTIES. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR/IFR THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND MODELS INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CEILINGS...CLOSE TO VFR...TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH WEDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT TOMORROW AND THIS WILL AID TO LINGER THE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 142348
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE MODELS
GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG BY MORNING. NOT MUCH OF
A DIURNAL DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWERS SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE OFFSHORE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CSRA
UP THROUGH BAMBERG AND EASTER ORANGEBURG COUNTIES. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR/IFR THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND MODELS INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CEILINGS...CLOSE TO VFR...TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH WEDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT TOMORROW AND THIS WILL AID TO LINGER THE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 142100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE MODELS
GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG BY MORNING. NOT MUCH OF
A DIURNAL DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWERS SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE OFFSHORE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR/IFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CAE/CUB HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AND CIGS
MAY ALSO LIFT TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT OGB/AGS/DNL.
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH WEDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 141826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE LITTLE FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
IS LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWERS SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE OFFSHORE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR/IFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CAE/CUB HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AND CIGS
MAY ALSO LIFT TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT OGB/AGS/DNL.
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH WEDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 141826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE LITTLE FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
IS LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWERS SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE OFFSHORE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR/IFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CAE/CUB HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AND CIGS
MAY ALSO LIFT TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT OGB/AGS/DNL.
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH WEDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 141805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE LITTLE FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
IS LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWER SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
MUCH OF THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 PERCENT OR LESS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR/IFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CAE/CUB HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AND CIGS
MAY ALSO LIFT TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT OGB/AGS/DNL.
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH WEDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 141805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE LITTLE FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
IS LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWER SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
MUCH OF THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 PERCENT OR LESS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE ON RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR/IFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CAE/CUB HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AND CIGS
MAY ALSO LIFT TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT OGB/AGS/DNL.
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH WEDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 141622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1222 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE LITTLE FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
IS LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWER SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
MUCH OF THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 PERCENT OR LESS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING WHILE OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT CIGS IFR THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEW POINTS WORKING
THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC.
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TAKE
CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO IFR BY AT LEAST 15/09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 141622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1222 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE LITTLE FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
IS LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWER SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
MUCH OF THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE
OFFSHORE FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 PERCENT OR LESS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING WHILE OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT CIGS IFR THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEW POINTS WORKING
THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC.
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TAKE
CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO IFR BY AT LEAST 15/09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 141429
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE LITTLE FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND EXPECT OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED INSTABILITY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY WITH THE
AIR MASS REMAINING MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN HIGH MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT AND MUCH OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF..AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 PERCENT OR LESS
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING WHILE OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT CIGS IFR THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEW POINTS WORKING
THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC.
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TAKE
CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO IFR BY AT LEAST 15/09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 141429
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE LITTLE FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND EXPECT OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED INSTABILITY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY WITH THE
AIR MASS REMAINING MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN HIGH MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT AND MUCH OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF..AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 PERCENT OR LESS
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING WHILE OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT CIGS IFR THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER DEW POINTS WORKING
THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY ALLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC.
RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD TAKE
CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO IFR BY AT LEAST 15/09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 141254
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
854 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE LITTLE FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND EXPECT OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED INSTABILITY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY WITH THE
AIR MASS REMAINING MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN HIGH MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT AND MUCH OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF..AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 PERCENT OR LESS
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF
THE REMAINING ACTIVITY CURRENTLY BETWEEN AGS AND OGB. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA AS REMAINS OF THE FRONT SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND WEDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR
FOR CAE/CUB THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR AT AGS/DNL/OGB. HAVE REMAINED
WITH VCTS FOR AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL
ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING INCREASES. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER
15/02Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 141254
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
854 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE LITTLE FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH
OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND EXPECT OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED INSTABILITY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK SO THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. THE MODELS GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO FOG. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY WITH THE
AIR MASS REMAINING MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN HIGH MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT AND MUCH OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF..AND EKD MOS
HAVE POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 20 PERCENT OR LESS
DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF
THE REMAINING ACTIVITY CURRENTLY BETWEEN AGS AND OGB. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA AS REMAINS OF THE FRONT SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND WEDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR
FOR CAE/CUB THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR AT AGS/DNL/OGB. HAVE REMAINED
WITH VCTS FOR AGS/DNL/OGB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL
ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING INCREASES. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER
15/02Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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