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000
FXUS62 KCAE 010654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
254 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWED CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT
STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRING AT
AGS. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL
PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS AND POSSIBLY OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 17Z ONWARD REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 010247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WAS DIMINISHING. IR SATELLITE SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

FEW SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF OGB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
COVERED IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE BY 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. FOG THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 010247
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF
THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDLANDS
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS WAS DIMINISHING. IR SATELLITE SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING. PWAT STILL AT OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

FEW SHOWERS REMAIN JUST EAST OF OGB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
COVERED IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATE BY 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
STRATUS REMAINS HIGH AS MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. FOG THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMIZED BY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ALL PARAMETERS CONSIDERED HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 312354
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z...03Z OGB.
WITH THE RAINFALL CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS IS INCREASING. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG WILL BE LONGEVITY OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TONIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX
OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 312354
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
754 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z...03Z OGB.
WITH THE RAINFALL CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS IS INCREASING. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CAE/CUB/DNL WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG WILL BE LONGEVITY OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TONIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MIX
OUT BY 13Z WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312329
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING INDICATED THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDLANDS COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. LIFTED
INDICES RANGED FROM MINUS 3 TO MINUS 6 WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES UP
3000 J/KG. PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 311839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINA THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AXIS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
AXIS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE CSRA. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH STORM MOTION GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GOING UP AND RIGHT BACK DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
THEY RAIN THEMSELVES OUT. THINK SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW GIVEN
SUCH WARM AIR IN THE LOWER 20KFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
BUT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 311839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINA THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AXIS JUST UNDER 2 INCHES EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
AXIS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE CSRA. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH STORM MOTION GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GOING UP AND RIGHT BACK DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
THEY RAIN THEMSELVES OUT. THINK SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW GIVEN
SUCH WARM AIR IN THE LOWER 20KFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES PUSHING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
BUT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY 06Z OR SO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER SUCH A WARM DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
UNDER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN W TO E FLOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACES WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THE RUN
OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S IN SOME AREAS...DECIDED TO RAISE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MONDAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER/H8 TEMPS. EXPECT MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A LOCATION OR TWO MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S....EXPECT
S/W ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAINING
NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT HANGING UP JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS 18Z-02Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL WITH RADAR
INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE
POSITIONED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THINK THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER SO NOT MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT FOG POTENTIAL LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 311437 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NOTICEABLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AROUND -5C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +9C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TODAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SOME CHANCES IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AS WELL WITH CHANNELED
VORTICITY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH BROUGHT EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20/30 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 90S FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORNING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 311437 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A NOTICEABLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AROUND -5C AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +9C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TODAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SOME CHANCES IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AS WELL WITH CHANNELED
VORTICITY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH BROUGHT EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20/30 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

MOS GUIDANCE HAS HAD A COOL BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 90S FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORNING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY AND
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 311008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IN GA AND THE UPSTATE OF SC HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN CSRA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE CSRA THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY IMPACT
AGS/DNL TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY HOLDING TOGETHER TO REACH CENTRAL MIDLANDS
SITES.

CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. LOWEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE...FORECASTING ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS
TO SLOWLY RISE AND MIX OUT BY 16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...












000
FXUS62 KCAE 310650
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 310650
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 310550
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTEN
OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE/VERY
LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THESE
NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM IN
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 310550
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REST OF THE NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING IN LOWER POPS.  BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA- BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTEN
OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCE/VERY
LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THESE
NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM IN
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH AGS/DNL BY
09Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN ADVANCE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
CSRA. HOWEVER WILL NOT PUT IN TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO RIDGE. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 310245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED THETA-E RIDGE...PWAT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...ALLOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALL TAF SITES VFR
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSS THE
AREA. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z.
WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY 16Z. REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 310245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED THETA-E RIDGE...PWAT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...ALLOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALL TAF SITES VFR
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSS THE
AREA. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z.
WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY 16Z. REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 310109
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
909 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS SPREADING HIGH AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED THETA-E RIDGE...PWAT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA...ALLOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR THIS AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF AGS/DNL LOSING STRENGTH WITH SUNSET AND
WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA EXPECTED
TO END EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF AGS/DNL LOSING STRENGTH WITH SUNSET AND
WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 302346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA EXPECTED
TO END EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF AGS/DNL LOSING STRENGTH WITH SUNSET AND
WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND 08Z
AGS/OGB AND 10Z CAE/CUB. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR
FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK...THEN FINALLY MIX OUT BY
16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 302248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA EXPECTED
TO END EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CHANCES OF RAIN AT
TERMINALS ARE LOW THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND DRY AIR
ALOFT SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AROUND AGS/DNL WILL WARRANT VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG
08Z-14Z WHICH WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA EXPECTED
TO END EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CHANCES OF RAIN AT
TERMINALS ARE LOW THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND DRY AIR
ALOFT SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AROUND AGS/DNL WILL WARRANT VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG
08Z-14Z WHICH WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 301841
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
241 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAVE THINNED AS MIXING
HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME EARLIER SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
WEAKENING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE. EXPECT
GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CSRA AND POSSIBLY ALONG A
NORTHWESTWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PWAT VALUES
AND HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LIKELY
PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT IN PLACE WITH
700MB TEMPS AROUND +9C AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -4C. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
HIGHER TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE CSRA SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CHANCES OF RAIN AT
TERMINALS ARE LOW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND DRY AIR
ALOFT SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AROUND AGS/DNL WILL WARRANT VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG
08Z-14Z WHICH WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 301841
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
241 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
AND INSTABILITY DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAVE THINNED AS MIXING
HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME EARLIER SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
HAVE DISSIPATED DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
WEAKENING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE. EXPECT
GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CSRA AND POSSIBLY ALONG A
NORTHWESTWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PWAT VALUES
AND HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND LIKELY
PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT IN PLACE WITH
700MB TEMPS AROUND +9C AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -4C. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
HIGHER TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE CSRA SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...EXPECT SOME STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT STILL HANGS IN STRONG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKENING FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST/WEST BY MONDAY. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS/MODEL SPECTRUM ONLY INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE/VERY LOW CHANCES POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO THESE NUMBERS WITH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
ONLY SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CHANCES OF RAIN AT
TERMINALS ARE LOW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND DRY AIR
ALOFT SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AROUND AGS/DNL WILL WARRANT VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG
08Z-14Z WHICH WILL LIFT INTO AN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 301446
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1046 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES BUT STILL REMAINS IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHER VALUES OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. 14Z LAPS SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB AND WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING
INTO THE MID 80S ALREADY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
REACHED AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WAS NOTED ALONG A NORTH-
SOUTH LINE FROM BAMBERG COUNTY SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED
WITH OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY.

EXPECT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE AND IN THE CSRA WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE NOTICEABLY HIGHER TODAY
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
CSRA...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE
STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CHANCES OF RAIN AT
TERMINALS ARE LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
OGB/AGS/DNL WOULD LIKELY BE MORE LIKELY THAN CAE/CUB TO OBSERVE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM TEH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301446
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1046 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATES ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES BUT STILL REMAINS IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHER VALUES OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. 14Z LAPS SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB AND WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING
INTO THE MID 80S ALREADY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
REACHED AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WAS NOTED ALONG A NORTH-
SOUTH LINE FROM BAMBERG COUNTY SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED
WITH OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY.

EXPECT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS WITH A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE AND IN THE CSRA WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE NOTICEABLY HIGHER TODAY
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
CSRA...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE
STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CHANCES OF RAIN AT
TERMINALS ARE LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH
OGB/AGS/DNL WOULD LIKELY BE MORE LIKELY THAN CAE/CUB TO OBSERVE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM TEH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 301008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC
THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MORNING LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-BREEZE
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM DUE TO
THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT
WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE
CSRA...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE
STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 2.5KFT EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT THESE
CONDITIONS IMPACTING TAF SITES THROUGH SUNRISE...SO HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY  REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN NC THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA.  WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE CSRA...THEN
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BEST FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH ALL SITES VFR
FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY  REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN NC THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA.  WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR THE CSRA...THEN
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH
THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY
TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BEST FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH ALL SITES VFR
FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300543
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY  REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN NC THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...HE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA.  WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BEST FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH ALL SITES VFR
FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300543
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY  REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN NC THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

TODAY...HE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT
THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME SEA-
BREEZE SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CWA.  WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW 95 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BEST FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH ALL SITES VFR
FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER 17Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH THE ROCK HILL
AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SURFACE OBS DEFINE THE FRONT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WHICH HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVED
INTO EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET WITH JUST A FEW REMAINING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH THE SHOWERS DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A
BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THOUGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED TO AROUND 7 KNOTS AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST FOG CHANCES REMAIN AT FOG
PRONE OGB/AGS...SHOWERS THIS EVENING AROUND OGB ADDING TO THE
POTENTIAL...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH
ALL SITES VFR FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER
17Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 300245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1045 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH THE ROCK HILL
AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SURFACE OBS DEFINE THE FRONT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SHOWERS WHICH HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVED
INTO EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH
SUNSET WITH JUST A FEW REMAINING CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BEGIN
RETURNING NORTHWARD. WITH THE SHOWERS DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A
BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM SHOWERS AROUND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THEN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THOUGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED TO AROUND 7 KNOTS AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST FOG CHANCES REMAIN AT FOG
PRONE OGB/AGS...SHOWERS THIS EVENING AROUND OGB ADDING TO THE
POTENTIAL...WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MVFR
FOG AT CAE/CUB BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SUNRISE HELPING FOG MIX OUT WITH
ALL SITES VFR FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS/DNL AFTER
17Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 292353
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE ROCK HILL AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CUMULUS OUTLINING THE FRONT WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TRYING TO WORK IN
FROM THE COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEARING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NEARING AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
FALL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING FAR EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THE SEA BREEZE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT RETURN NORTHWARD. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF OGB EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FOG DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHT FOG AT CAE/CUB.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM LATE
TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY 15Z
SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR ANY MORE THAN
ISOLATED STORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 292353
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE ROCK HILL AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CUMULUS OUTLINING THE FRONT WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TRYING TO WORK IN
FROM THE COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEARING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NEARING AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
FALL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING FAR EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THE SEA BREEZE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT RETURN NORTHWARD. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF OGB EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FOG DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT FOG PRONE
OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHT FOG AT CAE/CUB.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM LATE
TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY 15Z
SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR ANY MORE THAN
ISOLATED STORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 292222
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE ROCK HILL AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CUMULUS OUTLINING THE FRONT WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TRYING TO WORK IN
FROM THE COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEARING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NEARING AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
FALL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING FAR EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THE SEA BREEZE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT RETURN NORTHWARD. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CHANCES
OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT
FOG PRONE OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHTER FOG AT CAE/CUB.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NEAR
CALM LATE TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR STORMS
THROUGH 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 292222
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
622 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED FROM EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE ROCK HILL AREA AND INTO THE UPSTATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CUMULUS OUTLINING THE FRONT WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TRYING TO WORK IN
FROM THE COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEARING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NEARING AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
FALL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REACHING FAR EASTERN OGB AND CLARENDON COUNTIES. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THE SEA BREEZE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT RETURN NORTHWARD. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CHANCES
OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT
FOG PRONE OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHTER FOG AT CAE/CUB.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NEAR
CALM LATE TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR STORMS
THROUGH 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 291824
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
224 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BACKDOOR FRONT NOSED DOWN
INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE FRONT AT 17Z LOCATED
FROM NEAR GRD TO FDW TO LBT TO EWN. THERE WAS LITTLE INDICATION OF
A CHANGE IN AIRMASS THOUGH WITH ONLY A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS IDENTIFYING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 90S.
OBSERVED LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND THERE IS NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN...MIX OUT AND RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND POSSIBLY
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CHANCES
OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT
FOG PRONE OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHTER FOG AT CAE/CUB.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NEAR
CALM LATE TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR STORMS
THROUGH 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291824
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
224 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BACKDOOR FRONT NOSED DOWN
INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE FRONT AT 17Z LOCATED
FROM NEAR GRD TO FDW TO LBT TO EWN. THERE WAS LITTLE INDICATION OF
A CHANGE IN AIRMASS THOUGH WITH ONLY A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS IDENTIFYING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 90S.
OBSERVED LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND THERE IS NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN...MIX OUT AND RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND POSSIBLY
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE AS WELL WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE CSRA AND EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH HIGH H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S...BUT WENT ABOVE AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD
ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR
CONSENSUS...LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT
RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS S/W MOVE W TO E IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO
UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
NORMALS HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CHANCES
OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT
FOG PRONE OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHTER FOG AT CAE/CUB.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NEAR
CALM LATE TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR STORMS
THROUGH 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291746
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
146 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BACKDOOR FRONT NOSED DOWN
INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE FRONT AT 17Z LOCATED
FROM NEAR GRD TO FDW TO LBT TO EWN. THERE WAS LITTLE INDICATION OF
A CHANGE IN AIRMASS THOUGH WITH ONLY A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS IDENTIFYING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RESULTED IN A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 90S.
OBSERVED LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE AND THERE IS NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN...MIX OUT AND RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HELPING TO KEEP THE VERY WARM AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BETTER TONIGHT AS WELL ALSO
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND POSSIBLY
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A CAPPING INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CHANCES
OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT
FOG PRONE OGB/AGS WITH LOWER CHANCES AND LIGHTER FOG AT CAE/CUB.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NEAR
CALM LATE TONIGHT THEN PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BY 15Z SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERE STILL TO DRY SATURDAY FOR STORMS
THROUGH 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HC
NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291413 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1013 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
AND LOOKS TO BE SITUATED FROM NEAR GREENVILLE TO LANCASTER
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEWPORT NC WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST 925MB MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NC AND
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA FROM HRRR AND SPC WRF
INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN NC BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE
AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE SHALLOW AND LIKELY WILL MIX OUT AND
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL NC BY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL QUICKLY RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND PEAK IN
THE MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291413 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1013 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
AND LOOKS TO BE SITUATED FROM NEAR GREENVILLE TO LANCASTER
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEWPORT NC WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST 925MB MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NC AND
HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA FROM HRRR AND SPC WRF
INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN NC BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE
AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE SHALLOW AND LIKELY WILL MIX OUT AND
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL NC BY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL QUICKLY RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND PEAK IN
THE MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PW VALUES LESS
THAN AN INCH...PRECIP SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 90S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY PROVIDES SOME FOG CONCERNS AT THE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF
AGS/OGB THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION CONCERNS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 291028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PW VALUES LESS
THAN AN INCH...PRECIP SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 90S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S. FOR
SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY. CONTINUE WARM TEMPERATURES AS READINGS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY PROVIDES SOME FOG CONCERNS AT THE FOG PRONE TERMINALS OF
AGS/OGB THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION CONCERNS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











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