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000
FXUS62 KCAE 041420
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF WHICH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK WEDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
STILL HAVE LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WILL ALLOW THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM AS CONDITIONS SHOULD HAVE IMPROVED
AT ALL SITES. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT A RAPID WARM
UP...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. VWP THIS MORNING AT
CAE SHOWS 35 KTS AT 1K FT AND 40 KTS AT 2K FT. EXPECT SOME WIND
GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS AROUND 30 MPH...BUT LESS MIXING OVER COOL
LAKE WATERS...LAKE MURRAY WATER TEMP 47...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LESS GUSTS OVER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS AT LAST 21 KTS SUSTAINED AN/OR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER
THAN 25 KTS. THINK WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA LAKES WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL
WILL BE BREEZY ON THE AREA LAKES AND OVER THE LAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...DUE TO
NEARLY PARALLEL DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY AS
UPPER ENERGY SWINGS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK...BUT IS
TRENDING UP SOME DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WARM TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER THU AFTN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FA TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BECOME A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FRONT STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IN PLAY. SREF
PROVIDING SOME POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS
QUITE COOL DUE TO COLD AIR MASS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED
WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. SOME PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES COULD POSSIBLY BE IN PLAY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. FRONT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH CENTER BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SE CONUS. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES IN
LATEST RUNS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
PERIOD...LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE...GENERALLY PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS
MORNING...THEN SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE LATE MODRNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE
SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 15Z AS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO LIFR AFTER
03Z AGS/DNL AND BY 07Z CAE/CUB/OGB...ALTHOUGH THINK VSBYS MAY NOT
BE AS LOW DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 041420
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF WHICH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK WEDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
STILL HAVE LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WILL ALLOW THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM AS CONDITIONS SHOULD HAVE IMPROVED
AT ALL SITES. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT A RAPID WARM
UP...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. VWP THIS MORNING AT
CAE SHOWS 35 KTS AT 1K FT AND 40 KTS AT 2K FT. EXPECT SOME WIND
GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS AROUND 30 MPH...BUT LESS MIXING OVER COOL
LAKE WATERS...LAKE MURRAY WATER TEMP 47...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LESS GUSTS OVER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS AT LAST 21 KTS SUSTAINED AN/OR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER
THAN 25 KTS. THINK WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA LAKES WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL
WILL BE BREEZY ON THE AREA LAKES AND OVER THE LAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...DUE TO
NEARLY PARALLEL DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY AS
UPPER ENERGY SWINGS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK...BUT IS
TRENDING UP SOME DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WARM TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER THU AFTN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FA TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BECOME A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FRONT STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IN PLAY. SREF
PROVIDING SOME POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS
QUITE COOL DUE TO COLD AIR MASS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED
WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. SOME PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES COULD POSSIBLY BE IN PLAY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. FRONT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH CENTER BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SE CONUS. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES IN
LATEST RUNS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
PERIOD...LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE...GENERALLY PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS
MORNING...THEN SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE LATE MODRNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE
SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 15Z AS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO LIFR AFTER
03Z AGS/DNL AND BY 07Z CAE/CUB/OGB...ALTHOUGH THINK VSBYS MAY NOT
BE AS LOW DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 041420
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF WHICH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK WEDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
STILL HAVE LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WILL ALLOW THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM AS CONDITIONS SHOULD HAVE IMPROVED
AT ALL SITES. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT A RAPID WARM
UP...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. VWP THIS MORNING AT
CAE SHOWS 35 KTS AT 1K FT AND 40 KTS AT 2K FT. EXPECT SOME WIND
GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS AROUND 30 MPH...BUT LESS MIXING OVER COOL
LAKE WATERS...LAKE MURRAY WATER TEMP 47...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LESS GUSTS OVER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS AT LAST 21 KTS SUSTAINED AN/OR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER
THAN 25 KTS. THINK WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA LAKES WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL
WILL BE BREEZY ON THE AREA LAKES AND OVER THE LAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...DUE TO
NEARLY PARALLEL DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY AS
UPPER ENERGY SWINGS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK...BUT IS
TRENDING UP SOME DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WARM TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER THU AFTN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FA TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BECOME A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FRONT STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IN PLAY. SREF
PROVIDING SOME POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS
QUITE COOL DUE TO COLD AIR MASS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED
WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. SOME PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES COULD POSSIBLY BE IN PLAY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. FRONT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH CENTER BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SE CONUS. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES IN
LATEST RUNS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
PERIOD...LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE...GENERALLY PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS
MORNING...THEN SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE LATE MODRNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE
SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 15Z AS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO LIFR AFTER
03Z AGS/DNL AND BY 07Z CAE/CUB/OGB...ALTHOUGH THINK VSBYS MAY NOT
BE AS LOW DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 041420
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
920 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF WHICH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK WEDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
STILL HAVE LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WILL ALLOW THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM AS CONDITIONS SHOULD HAVE IMPROVED
AT ALL SITES. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT A RAPID WARM
UP...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. VWP THIS MORNING AT
CAE SHOWS 35 KTS AT 1K FT AND 40 KTS AT 2K FT. EXPECT SOME WIND
GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS AROUND 30 MPH...BUT LESS MIXING OVER COOL
LAKE WATERS...LAKE MURRAY WATER TEMP 47...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LESS GUSTS OVER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS AT LAST 21 KTS SUSTAINED AN/OR FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER
THAN 25 KTS. THINK WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA LAKES WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL
WILL BE BREEZY ON THE AREA LAKES AND OVER THE LAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...DUE TO
NEARLY PARALLEL DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY AS
UPPER ENERGY SWINGS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK...BUT IS
TRENDING UP SOME DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WARM TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER THU AFTN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FA TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BECOME A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FRONT STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IN PLAY. SREF
PROVIDING SOME POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS
QUITE COOL DUE TO COLD AIR MASS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED
WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. SOME PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES COULD POSSIBLY BE IN PLAY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. FRONT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH CENTER BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SE CONUS. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES IN
LATEST RUNS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
PERIOD...LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE...GENERALLY PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS
MORNING...THEN SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE LATE MODRNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE
SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 15Z AS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO LIFR AFTER
03Z AGS/DNL AND BY 07Z CAE/CUB/OGB...ALTHOUGH THINK VSBYS MAY NOT
BE AS LOW DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 041147
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF WHICH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA). WEDGE
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SRN SC COAST WEST
ACROSS CENT GA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN PROGRESS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10AM. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...EXPECT A RAPID WARM UP...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FA. SOME WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS AROUND 30MPH
EXPECTED...BUT LESS MIXING OVER COOL LAKE WATERS...LAKE MURRAY
WATER TEMP 47...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LESS GUSTS OVER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...HELD OFF ON LAKE WIND ADVISORY. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...DUE TO
NEARLY PARALLEL DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY AS
UPPER ENERGY SWINGS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK...BUT IS
TRENDING UP SOME DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WARM TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER THU AFTN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FA TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BECOME A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FRONT STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IN PLAY. SREF
PROVIDING SOME POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS
QUITE COOL DUE TO COLD AIR MASS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED
WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. SOME PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES COULD POSSIBLY BE IN PLAY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. FRONT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH CENTER BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SE CONUS. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES IN
LATEST RUNS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
PERIOD...LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE...GENERALLY PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE
SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 16Z AS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO LIFR AFTER
03Z AGS/DNL AND BY 07Z CAE/CUB/OGB...ALTHOUGH THINK VSBYS MAY NOT
BE AS LOW DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 041147
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF WHICH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA). WEDGE
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SRN SC COAST WEST
ACROSS CENT GA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN PROGRESS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10AM. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...EXPECT A RAPID WARM UP...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FA. SOME WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS AROUND 30MPH
EXPECTED...BUT LESS MIXING OVER COOL LAKE WATERS...LAKE MURRAY
WATER TEMP 47...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LESS GUSTS OVER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...HELD OFF ON LAKE WIND ADVISORY. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...DUE TO
NEARLY PARALLEL DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY AS
UPPER ENERGY SWINGS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK...BUT IS
TRENDING UP SOME DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WARM TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER THU AFTN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FA TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BECOME A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FRONT STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IN PLAY. SREF
PROVIDING SOME POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS
QUITE COOL DUE TO COLD AIR MASS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED
WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. SOME PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES COULD POSSIBLY BE IN PLAY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. FRONT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH CENTER BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SE CONUS. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES IN
LATEST RUNS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
PERIOD...LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE...GENERALLY PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE
SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 16Z AS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS
AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO LIFR AFTER
03Z AGS/DNL AND BY 07Z CAE/CUB/OGB...ALTHOUGH THINK VSBYS MAY NOT
BE AS LOW DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 041006
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
506 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF WHICH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA). WEDGE
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SRN SC COAST WEST
ACROSS CENT GA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN PROGRESS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10AM. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...EXPECT A RAPID WARM UP...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FA. SOME WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS AROUND 30MPH
EXPECTED...BUT LESS MIXING OVER COOL LAKE WATERS...LAKE MURRAY
WATER TEMP 47...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LESS GUSTS OVER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...HELD OFF ON LAKE WIND ADVISORY. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...DUE TO
NEARLY PARALLEL DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY AS
UPPER ENERGY SWINGS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK...BUT IS
TRENDING UP SOME DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WARM TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER THU AFTN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FA TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BECOME A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FRONT STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IN PLAY. SREF
PROVIDING SOME POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS
QUITE COOL DUE TO COLD AIR MASS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED
WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. SOME PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES COULD POSSIBLY BE IN PLAY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. FRONT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH CENTER BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SE CONUS. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES IN
LATEST RUNS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
PERIOD...LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE...GENERALLY PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...THEN IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
FROM 06Z-15Z WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL
LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 14Z-15Z AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKE PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 040849
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
349 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF WHICH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA). WEDGE
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SRN SC COAST WEST
ACROSS CENT GA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN PROGRESS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...EXPECT A RAPID WARM UP...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FA. SOME WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS AROUND 30MPH
EXPECTED...BUT LESS MIXING OVER COOL LAKE WATERS...LAKE MURRAY
WATER TEMP 47...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LESS GUSTS OVER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...HELD OFF ON LAKE WIND ADVISORY. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...DUE TO
NEARLY PARALLEL DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY AS
UPPER ENERGY SWINGS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK...BUT IS
TRENDING UP SOME DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WARM TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER THU AFTN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FA TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BECOME A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FRONT STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IN PLAY. SREF
PROVIDING SOME POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS
QUITE COOL DUE TO COLD AIR MASS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED
WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. FRONT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH CENTER BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SE CONUS. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES IN
LATEST RUNS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
PERIOD...LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE...GENERALLY PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...THEN IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
FROM 06Z-15Z WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL
LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 14Z-15Z AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKE PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 040849
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
349 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF WHICH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA). WEDGE
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SRN SC COAST WEST
ACROSS CENT GA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN PROGRESS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...EXPECT A RAPID WARM UP...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FA. SOME WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS AROUND 30MPH
EXPECTED...BUT LESS MIXING OVER COOL LAKE WATERS...LAKE MURRAY
WATER TEMP 47...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LESS GUSTS OVER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...HELD OFF ON LAKE WIND ADVISORY. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...DUE TO
NEARLY PARALLEL DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY AS
UPPER ENERGY SWINGS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK...BUT IS
TRENDING UP SOME DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WARM TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER THU AFTN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FA TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BECOME A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FRONT STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IN PLAY. SREF
PROVIDING SOME POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS
QUITE COOL DUE TO COLD AIR MASS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED
WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. FRONT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH CENTER BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SE CONUS. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES IN
LATEST RUNS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
PERIOD...LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE...GENERALLY PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...THEN IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
FROM 06Z-15Z WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL
LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 14Z-15Z AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKE PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 040849
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
349 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF WHICH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WEAK WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA). WEDGE
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SRN SC COAST WEST
ACROSS CENT GA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN PROGRESS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...EXPECT A RAPID WARM UP...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FA. SOME WIND GUSTS OVER LAND AREAS AROUND 30MPH
EXPECTED...BUT LESS MIXING OVER COOL LAKE WATERS...LAKE MURRAY
WATER TEMP 47...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LESS GUSTS OVER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. SO...HELD OFF ON LAKE WIND ADVISORY. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...DUE TO
NEARLY PARALLEL DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY AS
UPPER ENERGY SWINGS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK...BUT IS
TRENDING UP SOME DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND WARM TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER THU AFTN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FA TO ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR
WORKING IN ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPS CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BECOME A CONCERN. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FRONT STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING NEAR THE
COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IN PLAY. SREF
PROVIDING SOME POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS
QUITE COOL DUE TO COLD AIR MASS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED
WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. FRONT TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY WITH HIGH CENTER BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SE CONUS. CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES IN
LATEST RUNS DURING THE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME
PERIOD...LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE...GENERALLY PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...THEN IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
FROM 06Z-15Z WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL
LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 14Z-15Z AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKE PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 040539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...THEN IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
FROM 06Z-15Z WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL
LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 14Z-15Z AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKE PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 040539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...THEN IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
FROM 06Z-15Z WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL
LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 14Z-15Z AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKE PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 040539
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...THEN IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

COLD WEDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH THE STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD LIFR VSBYS/CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO START THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
FROM 06Z-15Z WITH A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE SHALLOW COOL
LAYER AND LIGHT TO NEAR CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 14Z-15Z AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKE PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 040305
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1005 PM EST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS. A WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND DRYING ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE 15Z-17Z...BECOMING VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST
UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 040305
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1005 PM EST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS. A WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND DRYING ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE 15Z-17Z...BECOMING VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST
UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 040305
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1005 PM EST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS. A WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND DRYING ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE 15Z-17Z...BECOMING VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST
UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 040305
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1005 PM EST TUE MAR  3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS. A WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND DRYING ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE 15Z-17Z...BECOMING VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST
UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 040102
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
OVERCAST CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT. LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEDGE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR VSBYS IN
DENSE DRIZZLE/FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATING VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM AS EARLY
AS 05Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z...BECOMING VFR BY
18Z. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 040102
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
OVERCAST CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT. LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEDGE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR VSBYS IN
DENSE DRIZZLE/FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATING VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM AS EARLY
AS 05Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z...BECOMING VFR BY
18Z. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 040102
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
OVERCAST CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT. LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEDGE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR VSBYS IN
DENSE DRIZZLE/FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATING VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM AS EARLY
AS 05Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z...BECOMING VFR BY
18Z. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 040102
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS SO HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ALL OF THE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT DRIZZLE STILL
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FA. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS ALREADY AT A QUARTER MILE. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM DURING WHICH TIME THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
OVERCAST CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT. LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEDGE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR VSBYS IN
DENSE DRIZZLE/FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATING VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM AS EARLY
AS 05Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z...BECOMING VFR BY
18Z. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 032341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.
BIGGER ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG.
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORY DUE TO
SEMI-LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER
SHIFTS WOULD NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
OVERCAST CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT. LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEDGE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR VSBYS IN
DENSE DRIZZLE/FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATING VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM AS EARLY
AS 05Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z...BECOMING VFR BY
18Z. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 032341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.
BIGGER ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG.
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORY DUE TO
SEMI-LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER
SHIFTS WOULD NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
OVERCAST CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT. LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEDGE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR VSBYS IN
DENSE DRIZZLE/FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATING VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM AS EARLY
AS 05Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z...BECOMING VFR BY
18Z. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 032341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.
BIGGER ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG.
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORY DUE TO
SEMI-LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER
SHIFTS WOULD NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
OVERCAST CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT. LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEDGE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR VSBYS IN
DENSE DRIZZLE/FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATING VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM AS EARLY
AS 05Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z...BECOMING VFR BY
18Z. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 032341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.
BIGGER ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG.
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORY DUE TO
SEMI-LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER
SHIFTS WOULD NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
OVERCAST CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT. LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS A WEDGE FRONT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TAF
SITES.

ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR VSBYS IN
DENSE DRIZZLE/FOG. GUIDANCE INDICATING VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM AS EARLY
AS 05Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z.

CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z...BECOMING VFR BY
18Z. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 032050
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
350 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.
BIGGER ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG.
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORY DUE TO
SEMI-LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER
SHIFTS WOULD NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE WEDGE FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST CEILINGS OVERCAST
AND BELOW 1KFT...WITH MANY SITES AROUND 500 FT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES BRING MOISTURE OVER THE WEDGE.
BIGGER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE INDICATING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS BY
07Z...LASTING THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT AND BREAK OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WEDGE LIFTS AND
BREAKS. PRECIP OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE DZ...WITH SOME RA MIXED
IN AT TIMES. WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH. SOME
LLWS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 032050
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
350 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A
RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT
BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG.
BIGGER ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE THE FOG.
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS IT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORY DUE TO
SEMI-LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER
SHIFTS WOULD NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE WEDGE FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST CEILINGS OVERCAST
AND BELOW 1KFT...WITH MANY SITES AROUND 500 FT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES BRING MOISTURE OVER THE WEDGE.
BIGGER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE INDICATING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS BY
07Z...LASTING THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT AND BREAK OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WEDGE LIFTS AND
BREAKS. PRECIP OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE DZ...WITH SOME RA MIXED
IN AT TIMES. WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH. SOME
LLWS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 031953
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
253 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND IS CLOSE TO THE CSRA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD TURN
MORE EASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL GA WILL LEAD TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND RAIN TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO TREND TO PUSH THE PRECIP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY LEAVE THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN STEADY LATE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST...WHILE THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.
STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL
EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. BIGGER ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS
MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING ANY ADVISORY DUE TO SEMI-LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL. HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISE IF LATER SHIFTS WOULD NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE WEDGE FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST CEILINGS OVERCAST
AND BELOW 1KFT...WITH MANY SITES AROUND 500 FT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES BRING MOISTURE OVER THE WEDGE.
BIGGER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE INDICATING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS BY
07Z...LASTING THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT AND BREAK OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WEDGE LIFTS AND
BREAKS. PRECIP OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE DZ...WITH SOME RA MIXED
IN AT TIMES. WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH. SOME
LLWS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 031953
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
253 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND IS CLOSE TO THE CSRA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD TURN
MORE EASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL GA WILL LEAD TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND RAIN TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO TREND TO PUSH THE PRECIP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY LEAVE THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN STEADY LATE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST...WHILE THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.
STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL
EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. BIGGER ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS
MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING ANY ADVISORY DUE TO SEMI-LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL. HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISE IF LATER SHIFTS WOULD NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA BY THE MORNING. DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS
BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THAN TREND. WOULD BE
FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS
SW TO NE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE SE PORTION OF
THE CWA. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AS THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CANADIAN HIGH CENTER BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AIR
MASS BEHIND FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONLY
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S...NEARLY
20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
ACCEPT HPC GUIDANCE/TEMPS...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE WEDGE FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST CEILINGS OVERCAST
AND BELOW 1KFT...WITH MANY SITES AROUND 500 FT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES BRING MOISTURE OVER THE WEDGE.
BIGGER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE INDICATING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS BY
07Z...LASTING THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT AND BREAK OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WEDGE LIFTS AND
BREAKS. PRECIP OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE DZ...WITH SOME RA MIXED
IN AT TIMES. WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH. SOME
LLWS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 031801
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND IS CLOSE TO THE CSRA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD TURN
MORE EASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL GA WILL LEAD TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND RAIN TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO TREND TO PUSH THE PRECIP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY LEAVE THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN STEADY LATE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST...WHILE THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.
STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL
EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. BIGGER ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS
MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING ANY ADVISORY DUE TO SEMI-LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL. HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISE IF LATER SHIFTS WOULD NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPS COULD REACH 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FA...WHICH WOULD BE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WED NT DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT...NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT.  BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER
ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AND
INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTER BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THU NT INTO FRI. AIR MASS BEHIND
FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THU NT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS...SEVERELY
REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT HPC
GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE WEDGE FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST CEILINGS OVERCAST
AND BELOW 1KFT...WITH MANY SITES AROUND 500 FT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES BRING MOISTURE OVER THE WEDGE.
BIGGER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE INDICATING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS BY
07Z...LASTING THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT AND BREAK OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WEDGE LIFTS AND
BREAKS. PRECIP OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE DZ...WITH SOME RA MIXED
IN AT TIMES. WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH. SOME
LLWS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 031801
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A RETURN TO WARM TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND IS CLOSE TO THE CSRA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD TURN
MORE EASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL GA WILL LEAD TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND RAIN TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO TREND TO PUSH THE PRECIP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY LEAVE THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN STEADY LATE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST...WHILE THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS FLORIDA. THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.
STILL EXPECT THAT THE WEAK WEDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL
EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. BIGGER ISSUE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARDS
MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING ANY ADVISORY DUE TO SEMI-LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL. HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISE IF LATER SHIFTS WOULD NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPS COULD REACH 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FA...WHICH WOULD BE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WED NT DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT...NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT.  BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER
ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AND
INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTER BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THU NT INTO FRI. AIR MASS BEHIND
FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THU NT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS...SEVERELY
REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT HPC
GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE WEDGE FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST CEILINGS OVERCAST
AND BELOW 1KFT...WITH MANY SITES AROUND 500 FT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES BRING MOISTURE OVER THE WEDGE.
BIGGER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE INDICATING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS BY
07Z...LASTING THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT AND BREAK OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WEDGE LIFTS AND
BREAKS. PRECIP OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE DZ...WITH SOME RA MIXED
IN AT TIMES. WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH. SOME
LLWS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NEAR THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE WEDGE BREAKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 031503
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1003 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION TODAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING. BACK DOOR FRONT NOTED BY DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WIND
SHIFT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...AND
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING OUT. WEAK WEDGE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS TRYING TO SETUP
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS TRYING TO TURN A LITTLE MORE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. BEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN THE UPSTATE AT THIS
TIME...AND NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT OUR CWA WILL BE ABLE TO
BECOME TRULY WEDGY BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST
AND THE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO START SETTING UP. AS FOR PRECIP...A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GA WILL LEAD TO SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO TREND TO
PUSH THE PRECIP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY LEAVE THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN STEADY LATE.

TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...WITH
UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST. WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM
FRONT TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL EXPECT WEAK
WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL
EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. AREAS ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPS COULD REACH 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FA...WHICH WOULD BE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WED NT DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT...NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT.  BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER
ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AND
INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTER BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THU NT INTO FRI. AIR MASS BEHIND
FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THU NT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS...SEVERELY
REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT HPC
GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH CIGS
BELOW 1KFT AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE BECOME
WIDESPREAD. IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS MAY
IMPROVE A BIT TO LOW MVFR DURING THE 23Z-05Z TIME FRAME AT
AGS/DNL/OGB ON THE FRINGE OF THE WEDGE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG AND
LIFR CIGS AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE
LIKELY WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 031503
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1003 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION TODAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING. BACK DOOR FRONT NOTED BY DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WIND
SHIFT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...AND
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING OUT. WEAK WEDGE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS TRYING TO SETUP
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS TRYING TO TURN A LITTLE MORE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. BEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN THE UPSTATE AT THIS
TIME...AND NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT OUR CWA WILL BE ABLE TO
BECOME TRULY WEDGY BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST
AND THE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO START SETTING UP. AS FOR PRECIP...A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GA WILL LEAD TO SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO TREND TO
PUSH THE PRECIP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY LEAVE THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN STEADY LATE.

TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...WITH
UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST. WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM
FRONT TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL EXPECT WEAK
WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL
EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. AREAS ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPS COULD REACH 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FA...WHICH WOULD BE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WED NT DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT...NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT.  BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER
ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AND
INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTER BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THU NT INTO FRI. AIR MASS BEHIND
FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THU NT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS...SEVERELY
REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT HPC
GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH CIGS
BELOW 1KFT AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE BECOME
WIDESPREAD. IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS MAY
IMPROVE A BIT TO LOW MVFR DURING THE 23Z-05Z TIME FRAME AT
AGS/DNL/OGB ON THE FRINGE OF THE WEDGE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG AND
LIFR CIGS AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE
LIKELY WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 031503
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1003 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION TODAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING. BACK DOOR FRONT NOTED BY DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WIND
SHIFT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...AND
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING OUT. WEAK WEDGE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS TRYING TO SETUP
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS TRYING TO TURN A LITTLE MORE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. BEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN THE UPSTATE AT THIS
TIME...AND NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT THAT OUR CWA WILL BE ABLE TO
BECOME TRULY WEDGY BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST
AND THE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO START SETTING UP. AS FOR PRECIP...A
WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GA WILL LEAD TO SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO TREND TO
PUSH THE PRECIP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY LEAVE THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN STEADY LATE.

TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...WITH
UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST. WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM
FRONT TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL EXPECT WEAK
WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...WILL
EXPECT TO SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. AREAS ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPS COULD REACH 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FA...WHICH WOULD BE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WED NT DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT...NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT.  BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER
ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AND
INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTER BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THU NT INTO FRI. AIR MASS BEHIND
FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THU NT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS...SEVERELY
REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT HPC
GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH CIGS
BELOW 1KFT AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE BECOME
WIDESPREAD. IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS MAY
IMPROVE A BIT TO LOW MVFR DURING THE 23Z-05Z TIME FRAME AT
AGS/DNL/OGB ON THE FRINGE OF THE WEDGE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG AND
LIFR CIGS AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE
LIKELY WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 031148
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION TODAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA SW INTO THE SW CONUS. SURFACE HIGH CENTER BUILDING EAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
BACK DOOR FRONT NOTED BY DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA TODAY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LEAD TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARDS SHIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT NONETHELESS
RESULT IN A WEAK WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY FALLING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STEADY LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...WITH UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST. WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT TO
BEGIN CREEPING NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL EXPECT WEAK WEDGE TO REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS COULD REACH 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FA...WHICH
WOULD BE FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WED NT DUE TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT.  BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER
ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AND
INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTER BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THU NT INTO FRI. AIR MASS BEHIND
FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THU NT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS...SEVERELY
REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT HPC
GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH CIGS
AROUND 1000FT OR BELOW AND EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
BECOME WIDESPREAD. IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8
TO 10 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CIGS MAY IMPROVE A BIT TO LOW MVFR
DURING THE 23Z-05Z TIME FRAME AT AGS/DNL/OGB ON THE FRINGE OF THE
WEDGE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
TONIGHT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG AND LIFR CIGS AT TERMINALS THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DENSE FOG A POSSIBILITY.
STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKELY WILL RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 030803
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION TODAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA SW INTO THE SW CONUS. SURFACE HIGH CENTER BUILDING EAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
BACK DOOR FRONT NOTED BY DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA TODAY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LEAD TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARDS SHIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT NONETHELESS
RESULT IN A WEAK WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY FALLING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STEADY LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...WITH UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST. WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT TO
BEGIN CREEPING NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL EXPECT WEAK WEDGE TO REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS COULD REACH 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FA...WHICH
WOULD BE FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WED NT DUE TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT.  BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER
ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AND
INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTER BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THU NT INTO FRI. AIR MASS BEHIND
FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THU NT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS...SEVERELY
REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT HPC
GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GOING TO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEDGE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.

VFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BY
08Z AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR BY AROUND 12Z AND REMAIN RESTRICTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z ALL
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT AGS/DNL/OGB AS IT COULD
OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THERE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DETERIORATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE STALL FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROP FURTHER TO LIFR WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 030803
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION TODAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA SW INTO THE SW CONUS. SURFACE HIGH CENTER BUILDING EAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
BACK DOOR FRONT NOTED BY DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA TODAY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LEAD TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARDS SHIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT NONETHELESS
RESULT IN A WEAK WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY FALLING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STEADY LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...WITH UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST. WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT TO
BEGIN CREEPING NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL EXPECT WEAK WEDGE TO REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS COULD REACH 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FA...WHICH
WOULD BE FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WED NT DUE TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT.  BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER
ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AND
INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTER BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THU NT INTO FRI. AIR MASS BEHIND
FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THU NT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS...SEVERELY
REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT HPC
GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GOING TO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEDGE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.

VFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BY
08Z AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR BY AROUND 12Z AND REMAIN RESTRICTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z ALL
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT AGS/DNL/OGB AS IT COULD
OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THERE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DETERIORATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE STALL FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROP FURTHER TO LIFR WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 030803
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION TODAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA SW INTO THE SW CONUS. SURFACE HIGH CENTER BUILDING EAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
BACK DOOR FRONT NOTED BY DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA TODAY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LEAD TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARDS SHIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT NONETHELESS
RESULT IN A WEAK WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY FALLING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STEADY LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...WITH UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST. WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT TO
BEGIN CREEPING NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL EXPECT WEAK WEDGE TO REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS COULD REACH 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FA...WHICH
WOULD BE FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WED NT DUE TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT.  BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER
ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AND
INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTER BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THU NT INTO FRI. AIR MASS BEHIND
FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THU NT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS...SEVERELY
REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT HPC
GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GOING TO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEDGE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.

VFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BY
08Z AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR BY AROUND 12Z AND REMAIN RESTRICTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z ALL
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT AGS/DNL/OGB AS IT COULD
OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THERE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DETERIORATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE STALL FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROP FURTHER TO LIFR WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 030803
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK SURFACE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION TODAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT...WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA SW INTO THE SW CONUS. SURFACE HIGH CENTER BUILDING EAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
BACK DOOR FRONT NOTED BY DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA TODAY. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL
LEAD TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR REGION. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE LIGHT PATCHY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARDS SHIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT NONETHELESS
RESULT IN A WEAK WEDGE DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY FALLING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STEADY LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA...WITH UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING WELL TO OUR WEST. WEDGE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT TO
BEGIN CREEPING NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL EXPECT WEAK WEDGE TO REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. WARM FRONT TO TRAVERSE NORTH THROUGH THE FA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP SW FLOW TO PROVIDE WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS COULD REACH 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH FA...WHICH
WOULD BE FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY NOV. NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY AND REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WED NT DUE TO SW FLOW
ALOFT...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY
INTO THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
REMAINS NEAR THE SW CONUS. UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY WSW OVER
OUR REGION. COLD FRONT TO COME SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY....LATEST
MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH IT.  BEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS APPEAR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR N AND NE DUE TO MAIN UPPER
ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY W TO WSW AND
INDICATES THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTER BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THU NT INTO FRI. AIR MASS BEHIND
FRONT IS OF POLAR CANADIAN ORIGIN AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THU NT INTO FRI.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW CONUS UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT
EAST. IT ALONG WITH SOME LEADING IMPULSES APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO OUR REGION...LEADING TO A WAVE OR TWO OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS...SEVERELY
REDUCING CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT HPC
GUIDANCE...PROVIDING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GOING TO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEDGE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.

VFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BY
08Z AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR BY AROUND 12Z AND REMAIN RESTRICTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z ALL
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT AGS/DNL/OGB AS IT COULD
OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THERE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DETERIORATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE STALL FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROP FURTHER TO LIFR WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 030559
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT A STRONG GRADIENT IN
DEWPOINTS EXISTS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE
SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST HRRR AND LAMP POP TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GOING TO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEDGE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.

VFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BY
08Z AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR BY AROUND 12Z AND REMAIN RESTRICTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z ALL
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT AGS/DNL/OGB AS IT COULD
OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THERE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DETERIORATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE STALL FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROP FURTHER TO LIFR WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 030559
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT A STRONG GRADIENT IN
DEWPOINTS EXISTS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE
SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST HRRR AND LAMP POP TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GOING TO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEDGE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.

VFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BY
08Z AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR BY AROUND 12Z AND REMAIN RESTRICTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z ALL
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT AGS/DNL/OGB AS IT COULD
OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THERE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DETERIORATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE STALL FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROP FURTHER TO LIFR WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 030559
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT A STRONG GRADIENT IN
DEWPOINTS EXISTS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE
SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST HRRR AND LAMP POP TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GOING TO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEDGE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.

VFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BY
08Z AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR BY AROUND 12Z AND REMAIN RESTRICTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z ALL
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT AGS/DNL/OGB AS IT COULD
OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THERE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DETERIORATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE STALL FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROP FURTHER TO LIFR WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 030559
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT A STRONG GRADIENT IN
DEWPOINTS EXISTS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE
SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST HRRR AND LAMP POP TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GOING TO RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WEDGE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.

VFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BY
08Z AND EVENTUALLY TO IFR BY AROUND 12Z AND REMAIN RESTRICTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z ALL
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT AGS/DNL/OGB AS IT COULD
OCCUR A LITTLE LATER THERE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DETERIORATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE STALL FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROP FURTHER TO LIFR WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKELY
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 030340
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1040 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT A STRONG GRADIENT IN
DEWPOINTS EXISTS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE
SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST HRRR AND LAMP POP TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAY
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 030340
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1040 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT A STRONG GRADIENT IN
DEWPOINTS EXISTS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE
SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST HRRR AND LAMP POP TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAY
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 030307
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAY
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 030307
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAY
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 030307
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAY
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 030307
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAY
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 022343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 022331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
ALSO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022326
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
SO HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYS
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE SPC WRF SHOWS COVERAGE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATES 2000 FOOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 022210
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATED 2000 FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022210
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATED 2000 FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 022210
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATED 2000 FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 022210
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM INDICATED 2000 FOOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...WE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022123
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
423 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022123
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
423 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
THUS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
STALLING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND
MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 022039
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 022039
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 022039
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 022039
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
339 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND IFR TUESDAY. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021831
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021831
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 021831
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021831
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 021813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...











000
FXUS62 KCAE 021813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...











000
FXUS62 KCAE 021813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...










000
FXUS62 KCAE 021813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM THE CSRA AND MOVING EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WARM DAY...HIGHS BACK IN THE
70S...LOOKING ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
STILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH READINGS THEN
BECOMING STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA SO THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LATER ON IN THE LONGER
TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...










000
FXUS62 KCAE 021755
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021755
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 021755
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021755
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1255 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...AGAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS AFTER 14Z AS COLD
AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 021713
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1213 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER
WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN AFTER 06Z. MVFR VSBYS/IFR CIGS
AFTER 14Z AS COLD AIR WEDGE SETS UP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 021452
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
952 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA. FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021410
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
910 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG RAPIDLY DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 021132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 021132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 021132
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
632 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHING SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
15Z OR SO THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
AND THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 06Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNERSDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHFIT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHIGN SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 020654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNERSDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHFIT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHIGN SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 020654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNERSDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHFIT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHIGN SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020654
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
BACK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNERSDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...
IN SITU WEDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. INDICATIONS OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WORKING TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
REGARDS TO COVERAGE...AND EXTENT...AND TIMING. ISSUED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE FA UNTIL 14Z.

TODAY...
LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SHFIT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE. FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY NEAR THE FRONT...MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN FA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF SOME UPPER ENERGY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. IN SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR FA IN RESPONSE...WITH COOL TEMPS. MODELS SUGGEST
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH OUR FA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS TUE
NT...WITH WARM MAX TEMPS WED. ACCEPTED MODEL CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GENERALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUNDER
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OF MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO STALL TO
OUR SOUTH SAT...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY...POSSIBLY
PUSHIGN SOME MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SUNDAY...WITH GFS PUSHING FRONT FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...WHILE ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...ACCEPTED BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...PROVIDING
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 020526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 020321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1021 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 020321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1021 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1021 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 020321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1021 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN
DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 020319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN
DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN
DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 020319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF RAIN
DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 012341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WEAKENS. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED
POOL OF COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT
SHOWING AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS
ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING
OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES
OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 012341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WEAKENS. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED
POOL OF COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT
SHOWING AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS
ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING
OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES
OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 012341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WEAKENS. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED
POOL OF COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT
SHOWING AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS
ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING
OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES
OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 012341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WEAKENS. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED
POOL OF COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT
SHOWING AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS
ADDITION TO THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

THE COOL AND MOIST WEDGE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS. MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PLUS INCREASING H85 WESTERLY FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD HELP SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE MORNING
OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. USED THE GFS LAMP AND FORECASTED A
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE TIMES
OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 012150
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
450 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF COLD AIR TO REMAIN
IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 012150
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
450 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF COLD AIR TO REMAIN
IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 012150
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
450 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF COLD AIR TO REMAIN
IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 012150
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
450 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF COLD AIR TO REMAIN
IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 012036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
336 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 012036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
336 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 012036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
336 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 012036
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
336 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011841
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH
THE WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTH WESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS ON MONDAY AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH
UNLESS WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ON
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE
SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. A COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE
OVERRUNNING PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY
INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD WEDGE.
WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR. COOLER ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011841
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH
THE WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTH WESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS ON MONDAY AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH
UNLESS WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ON
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE
SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. A COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE
OVERRUNNING PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY
INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD WEDGE.
WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR. COOLER ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011841
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH
THE WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTH WESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS ON MONDAY AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH
UNLESS WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ON
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE
SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. A COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE
OVERRUNNING PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY
INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD WEDGE.
WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR. COOLER ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011841
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH
THE WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTH WESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS ON MONDAY AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH
UNLESS WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ON
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE
SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. A COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE
OVERRUNNING PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY.
THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY
INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD WEDGE.
WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR. COOLER ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH
THE WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTH WESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS ON MONDAY AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH
UNLESS WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.  A SLIGHT WARM UP ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH
THE WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTH WESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS ON MONDAY AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH
UNLESS WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.  A SLIGHT WARM UP ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AND POPS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH
THE WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTH WESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS ON MONDAY AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH
UNLESS WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.  A SLIGHT WARM UP ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
ABOVE FREEZING AT 15Z. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND POPS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST THE WEDGE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT POPS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DECREASE FROM THE 20 TO
40 RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE UPPER FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. A 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS...SETTING UP ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.  A SLIGHT WARM UP ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
ABOVE FREEZING AT 15Z. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND POPS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST THE WEDGE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT POPS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DECREASE FROM THE 20 TO
40 RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE UPPER FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. A 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS...SETTING UP ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.  A SLIGHT WARM UP ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
ABOVE FREEZING AT 15Z. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND POPS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST THE WEDGE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT POPS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DECREASE FROM THE 20 TO
40 RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE UPPER FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. A 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS...SETTING UP ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.  A SLIGHT WARM UP ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY
ABOVE FREEZING AT 15Z. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND POPS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST THE WEDGE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS 850MB WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT POPS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DECREASE FROM THE 20 TO
40 RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MONDAY WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE UPPER FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. A 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS...SETTING UP ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.  A SLIGHT WARM UP ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO HOLD IN THE COOL SATURATED AIR MASS.
THEREFORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
RESTRICTION HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
LOCATIONS PRONE TO FOG SUCH AS AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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