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000
FXUS62 KCAE 190014
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS LOWER DECK TO SCATTER OUT AS IT REACHES
THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT FOG. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY
FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 190014
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWING STRATO-CU CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE
MIDLANDS FROM THE UPSTATE SC AND NORTH GEORGIA. MODELS SUGGEST
THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN
WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT INCREASING FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS LOWER DECK TO SCATTER OUT AS IT REACHES
THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT FOG. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANY
FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 182257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
557 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL BE SOME CIRRUS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH THE MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT BE
CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONSIST OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB/DNL.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH REGARDING THAT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 182257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
557 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL BE SOME CIRRUS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH THE MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT BE
CLOSE TO WHAT OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BASED ON 18Z GUIDANCE...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY FOR POPS SATURDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION
FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60 PERCENT...

THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND WITH LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION IN THE POP
GUIDANCE...LOWERED POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THE CSRA AND SOUTH MIDLANDS. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
MOISTURE FLUX IN THOSE REGIONS. WEAKER LIFT AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS SUGGESTS LOWER POPS. DRIZZLE EXPECTED
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONSIST OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB/DNL.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH REGARDING THAT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 181810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
110 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL BE SOME CIRRUS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR
MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL RAIN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH INCREASING POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECT RAIN TO FALL OVER THE
AREA. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONSIST OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB/DNL.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH REGARDING THAT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KCAE 181810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
110 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL BE SOME CIRRUS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS.  MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH THE MIDDLE 30S FOR
MOST AREAS...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE TO WHAT
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER MOVING
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS
WEAK AND MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS FOR THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL RAIN ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH INCREASING POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECT RAIN TO FALL OVER THE
AREA. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FOR
MONDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A
WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONSIST OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB/DNL.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH REGARDING THAT AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS RE-ENTER THE FORECASTS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 181449
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL CONSIST OF
SCATTERED CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 181449
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL CONSIST OF
SCATTERED CIRRUS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 181110
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
610 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181110
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
610 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
554 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. LINGERING MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
554 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. LINGERING MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
554 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. LINGERING MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
554 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. LINGERING MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD HELP DETER
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS AND OGB ALREADY
SHOWING MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST THEIR TAFS ACCORDINGLY. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD HELP DETER
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS AND OGB ALREADY
SHOWING MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST THEIR TAFS ACCORDINGLY. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
312 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EARLY
MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD HELP DETER
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS AND OGB ALREADY
SHOWING MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST THEIR TAFS ACCORDINGLY. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
237 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MVFR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
237 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DIRECT DRY
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS FRIDAY BUT SHOW AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
MOVING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY LATE. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PLUS LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND RAIN. LEANED TOWARD JUST BELOW THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE MOISTURE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS POPS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
TOO WARM BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

HIGH MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES BUT APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MVFR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180542
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THREAT OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
HELP DETER SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AGS
ALREADY SHOWING TRENDS MFVR/IFR VSBYS...SO WILL ADJUST AGS TAF
ACCORDINGLY. WILL MONITOR OGB FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW THREAT
OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT AND VEER FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW THREAT OF MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LOCAL RADIATION FOG SCHEME. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180319
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1019 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW THREAT
OF EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT AND VEER FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY. CIRRUS...DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW THREAT OF MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LOCAL RADIATION FOG SCHEME. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 172346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT AND
VEER FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING AT ANY OF
THE TAF LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 172346
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT AND
VEER FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING AT ANY OF
THE TAF LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 172159
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
459 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN. DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY THIN CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 172159
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
459 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN. DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY THIN CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 172159
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
459 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH/THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
AIR MASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN. DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY THIN CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 171716
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1216 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES...WHILE THE IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME VERY THIN CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR...AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT.
SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT
OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE
REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN. DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY THIN CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. DUE TO THE DRY
AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77









000
FXUS62 KCAE 171716
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1216 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES...WHILE THE IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME VERY THIN CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR...AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT.
SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT
OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE
REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD
OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND IN COOL WEDGE
OF AIR THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. LEANED TOWARD
JUST BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW. WITH SUCH TIMING
DIFFERENCES...HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR...EITHER TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN. DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY THIN CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. DUE TO THE DRY
AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77










000
FXUS62 KCAE 171512
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1012 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES...WHILE THE IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME VERY THIN CIRRUS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR...AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS LIGHT.
SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THE ONLY FLY IN THAT
OINTMENT MAY BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S STILL APPEAR TO BE
REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE ONLY
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY THIN CIRRUS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.  WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 171141
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT FURTHER EAST. AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT EARLY MORNING
FOG. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171141
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT FURTHER EAST. AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT EARLY MORNING
FOG. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
348 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT FURTHER EAST. AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT EARLY MORNING
FOG. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
348 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT FURTHER EAST. AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT EARLY MORNING
FOG. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
348 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT FURTHER EAST. AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT EARLY MORNING
FOG. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170848
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
348 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT FURTHER EAST. AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT EARLY MORNING
FOG. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT TODAY BUT MAINLY FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170840
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
340 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170840
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
340 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170840
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
340 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170840
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
340 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS. USED
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170746
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170746
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170746
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170746
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE FLAT FLOW BUT
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN THIN. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS LATELY BUT WE ARE IN A DIFFERENT AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN
THE FLAT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS HAVE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY DOMINATE SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE INDICATING LITTLE
MOISTURE SUNDAY.

DEEP MOISTURE MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTENT
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS
SUPPORT POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.

THE PATTERN AND MOS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170513
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1213 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND WILL HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND
40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...01Z.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES
FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT 01Z...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN CHANCES MOVING
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170513
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1213 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DIRECT
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND WILL HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND
40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...01Z.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES
FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT 01Z...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN CHANCES MOVING
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170238
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
938 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKE THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AT 21Z COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE CSRA/PIEDMONT. RAINFALL MOVING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH FULL SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND BEGINS TRACKING
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...HOWEVER EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...01Z.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES
FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT 01Z...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN CHANCES MOVING
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170238
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
938 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKE THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AT 21Z COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE CSRA/PIEDMONT. RAINFALL MOVING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH FULL SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND BEGINS TRACKING
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...HOWEVER EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...01Z.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES
FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT 01Z...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN CHANCES MOVING
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170145
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
845 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKE THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AT 21Z COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE CSRA/PIEDMONT. RAINFALL MOVING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH FULL SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND BEGINS TRACKING
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...HOWEVER EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...01Z.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES
FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT 01Z...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN CHANCES MOVING
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 3 TO 5
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 170145
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
845 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKE THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AT 21Z COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE CSRA/PIEDMONT. RAINFALL MOVING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH FULL SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND BEGINS TRACKING
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...HOWEVER EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...01Z.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES
FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT 01Z...BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN CHANCES MOVING
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 3 TO 5
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170001
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
701 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKE THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AT 21Z COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE CSRA/PIEDMONT. RAINFALL MOVING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH FULL SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND BEGINS TRACKING
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...HOWEVER EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN
CHANCES MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 3 TO 5
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170001
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
701 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKE THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AT 21Z COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE CSRA/PIEDMONT. RAINFALL MOVING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH FULL SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND BEGINS TRACKING
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...HOWEVER EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN
CHANCES MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4 KNOTS OR LESS BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 3 TO 5
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 162127
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
427 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKE THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AT 21Z COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE CSRA/PIEDMONT. RAINFALL MOVING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH FULL SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND BEGINS TRACKING
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...HOWEVER EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN
CHANCES MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE
MIDLANDS TAF SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.  CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
TEMPORARILY BROKEN MVFR BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN GUSTS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 162127
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
427 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKE THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. AT 21Z COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE CSRA/PIEDMONT. RAINFALL MOVING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH FULL SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND BEGINS TRACKING
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...HOWEVER EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN
CHANCES MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE
MIDLANDS TAF SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.  CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
TEMPORARILY BROKEN MVFR BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN GUSTS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161948
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
248 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKE THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA...AND WILL BE MOVING INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE PEE DEE AND OFF TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH
DRYING BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO MAYBE A
TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA AND DRIER AIR RETURNS TO
THE AREA. MAY HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN
SHOULD DIMINISH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND BEGINS TRACKING
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...HOWEVER EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN
CHANCES MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE
MIDLANDS TAF SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.  CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
TEMPORARILY BROKEN MVFR BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN GUSTS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 161948
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
248 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKE THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST.
RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA...AND WILL BE MOVING INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE PEE DEE AND OFF TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH
DRYING BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO MAYBE A
TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA AND DRIER AIR RETURNS TO
THE AREA. MAY HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN
SHOULD DIMINISH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST AND BEGINS TRACKING
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING...HOWEVER EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BE APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITH RAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CONTROL THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER AGREE ON RAIN
CHANCES MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE
MIDLANDS TAF SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.  CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
TEMPORARILY BROKEN MVFR BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN GUSTS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 161743
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH TODAY. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA...AND WILL BE MOVING INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE PEE DEE AND OFF TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH
DRYING BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO MAYBE A
TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA AND DRIER AIR RETURNS TO
THE AREA. MAY HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN
SHOULD DIMINISH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW EXPECTED. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR REGION FROM THE NW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN PLAY WITH REGARDS TO
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE SE COAST...SPREADING MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION GENERALLY IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...EXITING TO OUR NE BY SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE CSRA WILL PUSH EAST AND CROSS THE
ALL THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
MAINLY VFR...WITH A BRIEF MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE DURING BRIEF
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL IS MOVING EAST OF
ALL TAF SITES...AND SITES SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN GUSTS
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO ALL SITES 20Z-22Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
AFTER 00Z. VFR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 161743
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH TODAY. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA...AND WILL BE MOVING INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE PEE DEE AND OFF TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH
DRYING BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO MAYBE A
TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA AND DRIER AIR RETURNS TO
THE AREA. MAY HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN
SHOULD DIMINISH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW EXPECTED. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR REGION FROM THE NW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN PLAY WITH REGARDS TO
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE SE COAST...SPREADING MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION GENERALLY IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...EXITING TO OUR NE BY SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE CSRA WILL PUSH EAST AND CROSS THE
ALL THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
MAINLY VFR...WITH A BRIEF MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE DURING BRIEF
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL IS MOVING EAST OF
ALL TAF SITES...AND SITES SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN GUSTS
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO ALL SITES 20Z-22Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
AFTER 00Z. VFR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 161524
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1024 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH TODAY. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE CWA.  IT APPEARS MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF OUR FA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL OFF TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA WILL SWING EAST THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...BRINGING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE DUE TO BETTER COVERAGE WITH CURRENT
PRECIP. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH TO MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA AND DRIER AIR RETURNS TO
THE AREA. MAY HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN
SHOULD DIMINISH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW EXPECTED. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR REGION FROM THE NW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN PLAY WITH REGARDS TO
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE SE COAST...SPREADING MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION GENERALLY IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...EXITING TO OUR NE BY SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST AND CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS MAINLY VFR...WITH A BRIEF MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE DURING
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR DOES
SHOW SOME RAINFALL...BUT CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE
OF TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL JUST WEST OF THE CSRA WILL PUSH
TOWARDS AND INTO AGS/DNL BY 17Z...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS...WITH VCSH OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 MPH...EVENTUALLY VEERING
TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN
20Z-22Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 161524
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1024 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH TODAY. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE CWA.  IT APPEARS MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF OUR FA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL OFF TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA WILL SWING EAST THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...BRINGING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE DUE TO BETTER COVERAGE WITH CURRENT
PRECIP. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH TO MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA AND DRIER AIR RETURNS TO
THE AREA. MAY HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN
SHOULD DIMINISH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW EXPECTED. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR REGION FROM THE NW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN PLAY WITH REGARDS TO
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE SE COAST...SPREADING MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION GENERALLY IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...EXITING TO OUR NE BY SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST AND CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS MAINLY VFR...WITH A BRIEF MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE DURING
BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR DOES
SHOW SOME RAINFALL...BUT CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE
OF TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL JUST WEST OF THE CSRA WILL PUSH
TOWARDS AND INTO AGS/DNL BY 17Z...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS...WITH VCSH OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 MPH...EVENTUALLY VEERING
TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN
20Z-22Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 161120
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
620 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH TODAY. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING TO THE ENE...WITH SECONDARY VORT
LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ROLLING THROUGH OUR
REGION...OUR JUST TO OUR NORTH...LATER TODAY. IT APPEARS MAIN
UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR FA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS E TENN INTO NW GA...WILL SWING EAST
THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY
MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THE FRONT. THINK SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS LOOKS
OK...WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW EXPECTED. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR REGION FROM THE NW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN PLAY WITH REGARDS TO
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE SE COAST...SPREADING MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION GENERALLY IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...EXITING TO OUR NE BY SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE ATLANTA AREA WILL PUSH
EAST AND CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A
BLANKET OF LOW VFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDLANDS AND
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS 12Z-14Z EXCEPT OGB.  A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME
AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS WITH SHOWERS DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 MPH
BY 14Z-16Z...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN 20Z-22Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161120
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
620 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH TODAY. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING TO THE ENE...WITH SECONDARY VORT
LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ROLLING THROUGH OUR
REGION...OUR JUST TO OUR NORTH...LATER TODAY. IT APPEARS MAIN
UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR FA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS E TENN INTO NW GA...WILL SWING EAST
THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY
MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THE FRONT. THINK SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS LOOKS
OK...WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW EXPECTED. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR REGION FROM THE NW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN PLAY WITH REGARDS TO
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE SE COAST...SPREADING MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION GENERALLY IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...EXITING TO OUR NE BY SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE ATLANTA AREA WILL PUSH
EAST AND CROSS THE TERMINALS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A
BLANKET OF LOW VFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDLANDS AND
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS 12Z-14Z EXCEPT OGB.  A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME
AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS WITH SHOWERS DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 MPH
BY 14Z-16Z...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN 20Z-22Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 160618
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
118 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH TODAY. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE RECOVERY OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA) AND PEE
DEE/NORTH COAST REGION RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING.
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...PLUS INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FA. WILL
MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH 13Z FOR THE E/SE FA...AND WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST. UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING TO THE ENE...WITH
SECONDARY VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ROLLING
THROUGH OUR REGION...OUR JUST TO OUR NORTH...LATER TODAY. IT APPEARS
MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR FA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS CENT TENN INTO ALA...EXPECTED TO SWING
EAST THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE STILL APPEARS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...AND STILL THINK
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS LOOKS OK...MAINLY MORNING HOURS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW EXPECTED. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR REGION FROM THE NW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN PLAY WITH REGARDS TO
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE SE COAST...SPREADING MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION GENERALLY IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...EXITING TO OUR NE BY SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE GIVING WAY TO AN
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SOME LOWER VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE CIGS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT THINK IT WILL OCCUR BY 15Z
AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB AND 16Z AT OGB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FOG AT OGB/AGS BEFORE THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH DAWN THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 MPH BY
15Z-17Z...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 21Z-23Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 160618
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
118 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH TODAY. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE RECOVERY OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA) AND PEE
DEE/NORTH COAST REGION RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING.
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...PLUS INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD
PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FA. WILL
MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH 13Z FOR THE E/SE FA...AND WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST. UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING TO THE ENE...WITH
SECONDARY VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ROLLING
THROUGH OUR REGION...OUR JUST TO OUR NORTH...LATER TODAY. IT APPEARS
MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR FA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS CENT TENN INTO ALA...EXPECTED TO SWING
EAST THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
MOISTURE STILL APPEARS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT...AND STILL THINK
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS LOOKS OK...MAINLY MORNING HOURS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AVERAGING ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW EXPECTED. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO OUR REGION FROM THE NW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN PLAY WITH REGARDS TO
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE SE COAST...SPREADING MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION GENERALLY IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...EXITING TO OUR NE BY SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
CONTINUE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT US AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE GIVING WAY TO AN
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SOME LOWER VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE CIGS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT THINK IT WILL OCCUR BY 15Z
AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB AND 16Z AT OGB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FOG AT OGB/AGS BEFORE THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH DAWN THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 MPH BY
15Z-17Z...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 21Z-23Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 160556
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1256 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND TOWARDS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...THEN THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE MID-WEST...WITH A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF IT.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MID
CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE REGION TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST.
MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE ENOUGH VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOWARDS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH...CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND MOISTURE
BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE. READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD BE
MORE COMMON TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS THE CLOUDS MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MARCHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID MORNING AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES STRUGGLING TO
SURPASS 1.1 INCHES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND CONFINED TO ABOUT
600MB AND BELOW. BY MID AFTERNOON MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA AND MIXING DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WILL END THE RAIN CHANCE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY
MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RETURN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS TUESDAY WITH LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS AGREE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS EVERY COUPLE OF
DAYS THROUGH THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS AS THE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE
ECMWF MAKING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES. THIS WILL KEEP A WEAK
SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SLIGHTLY WITH NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE GIVING WAY TO AN
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SOME LOWER VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE CIGS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT THINK IT WILL OCCUR BY 15Z
AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB AND 16Z AT OGB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FOG AT OGB/AGS BEFORE THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH DAWN THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 MPH BY
15Z-17Z...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 21Z-23Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 160556
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1256 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND TOWARDS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...THEN THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE MID-WEST...WITH A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF IT.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MID
CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE REGION TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST.
MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE ENOUGH VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOWARDS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH...CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND MOISTURE
BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE. READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD BE
MORE COMMON TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS THE CLOUDS MOVE INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MARCHING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID MORNING AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES STRUGGLING TO
SURPASS 1.1 INCHES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND CONFINED TO ABOUT
600MB AND BELOW. BY MID AFTERNOON MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR
INTRUDING INTO THE AREA AND MIXING DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WILL END THE RAIN CHANCE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS BY
MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. WITH THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RETURN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS TUESDAY WITH LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS AGREE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS EVERY COUPLE OF
DAYS THROUGH THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS AS THE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE
ECMWF MAKING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CHANGES. THIS WILL KEEP A WEAK
SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SLIGHTLY WITH NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE GIVING WAY TO AN
APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SOME LOWER VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE CIGS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT THINK IT WILL OCCUR BY 15Z
AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB AND 16Z AT OGB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FOG AT OGB/AGS BEFORE THE
CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH DAWN THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 MPH BY
15Z-17Z...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 21Z-23Z WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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