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000
FXUS62 KCAE 250238 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WANE OVERALL IN INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE NC/SC STATE LINE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH
OF OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HOLD ON TO
SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z THEN
CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS A FLAT
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER
FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NEARLY ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING. FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING WILL
DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS AND EXTENT
OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER...BUT GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS SOME
MVFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB SO WILL MENTION. SOME CU MAY DEVELOP BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 242335
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
735 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BEST COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION SOUTH OF COLUMBIA.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO FOCUS HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THINK LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS A FLAT
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER
FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND
DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.  AT THIS TIME....WILL HANDLE IN THE TAFS WITH VCTS/VCSH
AND UPGRADE LATER IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. FOG THREAT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY
OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS AND EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT TSRA CHANCE FRIDAY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 242335
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
735 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BEST COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION SOUTH OF COLUMBIA.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO FOCUS HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THINK LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS A FLAT
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER
FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT AND
DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.  AT THIS TIME....WILL HANDLE IN THE TAFS WITH VCTS/VCSH
AND UPGRADE LATER IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. FOG THREAT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY
OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS AND EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT TSRA CHANCE FRIDAY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 242241 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BEST COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION SOUTH OF COLUMBIA.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO FOCUS HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THINK LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS A FLAT
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER
FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...SINCE
CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS
LIMITED...WILL HANDLE IN THE TAFS WITH VCSH AND UPGRADE LATER
IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS AND EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT TSRA CHANCE FRIDAY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 242241 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BEST COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION SOUTH OF COLUMBIA.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO FOCUS HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THINK LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS A FLAT
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER
FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...SINCE
CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS
LIMITED...WILL HANDLE IN THE TAFS WITH VCSH AND UPGRADE LATER
IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS AND EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT TSRA CHANCE FRIDAY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241901
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SE FROM THE MID WEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. BEST MOISTURE
JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENT AND E NC/VA...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PW) AROUND 2 INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PW VALUES ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FA. MODERATE INSTABILITY PROJECTED FOR OUR FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR/BRN VALUES NEAR
AND TO THE NE OF OUR NE FA. NE FA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET. COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO OUR NE WILL FAVOR
SEVERE RISK ACROSS OUR NE FA. SPC UPGRADED DAY ONE OUTLOOK TO
SLIGHT RISK SVR CLIPPING OUR NE FA.

THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER DURING
THE LATE EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE COAST. WENT WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS A FLAT
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER
FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...SINCE
CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS
LIMITED...WILL HANDLE IN THE TAFS WITH VCSH AND UPGRADE LATER
IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS AND EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT TSRA CHANCE FRIDAY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241901
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SE FROM THE MID WEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. BEST MOISTURE
JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENT AND E NC/VA...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PW) AROUND 2 INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PW VALUES ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FA. MODERATE INSTABILITY PROJECTED FOR OUR FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR/BRN VALUES NEAR
AND TO THE NE OF OUR NE FA. NE FA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET. COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO OUR NE WILL FAVOR
SEVERE RISK ACROSS OUR NE FA. SPC UPGRADED DAY ONE OUTLOOK TO
SLIGHT RISK SVR CLIPPING OUR NE FA.

THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER DURING
THE LATE EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE COAST. WENT WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS A FLAT
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER
FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...SINCE
CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS
LIMITED...WILL HANDLE IN THE TAFS WITH VCSH AND UPGRADE LATER
IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS AND EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT TSRA CHANCE FRIDAY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241455
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT RADAR CHECKING CLEAR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)...WITH
SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING E ACROSS NC. EXPECTING
BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SE FROM THE MID WEST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND
DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. BEST
MOISTURE JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENT AND E NC/VA...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AROUND 2 INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PW
VALUES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FA. MODERATE INSTABILITY PROJECTED FOR OUR
FA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR/BRN
VALUES NEAR AND TO THE NE OF OUR NE FA. NE FA IN FAVORABLE
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO OUR NE WILL FAVOR
SEVERE RISK ACROSS OUR NE FA. SPC UPGRADED DAY ONE OUTLOOK TO
SLIGHT RISK SVR CLIPPING OUR NE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...SINCE
CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS
LIMITED...WILL HANDLE IN THE TAFS WITH VCSH AND UPGRADE LATER
IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MONRING WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS AND EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT TSRA CHANCE FRIDAY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 241455
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1055 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT RADAR CHECKING CLEAR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)...WITH
SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING E ACROSS NC. EXPECTING
BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SE FROM THE MID WEST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND
DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. BEST
MOISTURE JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENT AND E NC/VA...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) AROUND 2 INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PW
VALUES ACROSS MOST OF OUR FA. MODERATE INSTABILITY PROJECTED FOR OUR
FA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR/BRN
VALUES NEAR AND TO THE NE OF OUR NE FA. NE FA IN FAVORABLE
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO OUR NE WILL FAVOR
SEVERE RISK ACROSS OUR NE FA. SPC UPGRADED DAY ONE OUTLOOK TO
SLIGHT RISK SVR CLIPPING OUR NE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...SINCE
CONFIDENCE OF TSRA SPECIFICALLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS
LIMITED...WILL HANDLE IN THE TAFS WITH VCSH AND UPGRADE LATER
IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE WARRANTS. FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MONRING WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS AND EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT TSRA CHANCE FRIDAY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AGS/OGB. MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241049
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING
MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
WITH FRONT MOVING INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A LITTLE
LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF SUPPORTS
HIGHER POPS...SO WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD AND IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE UPSTATE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTION SO HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AT
ALL SITES AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. FRONT WILL
SLIDE TO THE COAST TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z...THEN VEERING TO WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS THROUGH
25/00Z...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 25/04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 241049
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING
MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
WITH FRONT MOVING INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A LITTLE
LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF SUPPORTS
HIGHER POPS...SO WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD AND IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE UPSTATE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARD TO
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTION SO HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AT
ALL SITES AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. FRONT WILL
SLIDE TO THE COAST TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z...THEN VEERING TO WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS THROUGH
25/00Z...FINALLY SUBSIDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 25/04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 240759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING MAINLY
NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. WITH FRONT MOVING
INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A LITTLE LOW ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS...SO
WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PREFER
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF
THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240759
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING MAINLY
NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. WITH FRONT MOVING
INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A LITTLE LOW ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS...SO
WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PREFER
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF
THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 240751
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. WITH FRONT MOVING INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A
LITTLE LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF
SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS...SO WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PREFER
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF
THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240751
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND WEAKEN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS/WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AREA IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WITH RESULTING MODERATELY STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF REGION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. WITH FRONT MOVING INTO AREA...THINK MOS CONSENSUS POPS A
LITTLE LOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SREF
SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS...SO WENT LIKELY IN THOSE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT DECREASING POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
POSSIBLY MOVING THRU THE AREA BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE
BUILDING LATER ON SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. PREFER
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF
THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCE
POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 240612
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR COVERAGE BECOMING ISOLATED...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS STABILIZE. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 240612
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR COVERAGE BECOMING ISOLATED...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS STABILIZE. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 4 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE SCATTERED CLOUDS HELP
TO PREVENT FOG...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT.
HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAIN LOW. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 25/00Z
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 25/00Z...FINALLY
SUBSIDING TO WESTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 240133
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
933 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
RADAR COVERAGE BECOMING ISOLATED...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS STABILIZE. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. CAN NOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 04Z. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z
THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT AGS AND DNL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF
THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT AGS AND DNL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF
THE WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
THIS AT OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS BY 20Z THURSDAY DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ISSUES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND LONG THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS REIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INT HE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70...DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT OGB WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
ACTIVITY..BUT AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER
CUB/CAE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT
OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 231857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS..MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND LONG THE COAST. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS BACK TO THE
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ERN/CNRL TN CLOSER TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS REIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ALONG/EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE EARLY/LATE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW TO
MODERATE. HAVE RANGED POPS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. AIR MASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRONGER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INT HE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70...DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT OGB WHICH APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
ACTIVITY..BUT AN ISOLATE SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER
CUB/CAE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THIS AT
OGB/AGS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 231437
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE LIFTED AND ONLY SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS REMAIN. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES INT HE LOWER/MIDDLE 70 AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CUT
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE FROM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT
AT/NEAR THE TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231437
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1037 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS HAVE LIFTED AND ONLY SCATTERED LOWER
CLOUDS REMAIN. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES INT HE LOWER/MIDDLE 70 AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT CUT
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE FROM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN ONCE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT
AT/NEAR THE TAF SITES REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 231051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN IMPACTS
CURRENTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. FOG LAYER IS MOSTLY THIN AND IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ALL SITES
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 231051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN IMPACTS
CURRENTLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB. FOG LAYER IS MOSTLY THIN AND IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ALL SITES
RETURNING TO VFR BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MID
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 230737
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
337 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AREA NEAR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS HIGH...AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT SOME DRYING EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER GEORGIA ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS WEAK. LOW CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE/WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0
INCHES AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW TO MODERATE. KEPT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FRONT APPEARS TO BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE FRIDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE EAST. AIR MASS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE STRONGER. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SURFACE OBS INDICATING MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND STRATUS THROUGH DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
08 AND 13Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR AROUND 13Z WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230612
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SURFACE OBS INDICATING MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND STRATUS THROUGH DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
08 AND 13Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR AROUND 13Z WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 230225
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CSRA.  WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
LATER RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A
STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 230225
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CSRA.  WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
LATER RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A
STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
MAINLY EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 222311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS62 KCAE 222311
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MUGGY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KCAE 222257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 222257
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NO PRECIPITATION APPROACHING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN
THE CURRENT MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE
AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 221855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN A BAND FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAST AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
ALONG THE CSRA AND SRN MIDLANDS REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT A CONTINUED TREND OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH INITIALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WILL MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77









000
FXUS62 KCAE 221855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES GREATEST TOWARD THE COAST...BUT
VALUES GREAT THAN 2 INCHES ARE COVERING ALL OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INSOLATION AND LOSS OF EARLIER LOW CLOUDS THE
ATMOSPHERE AS BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND STORM
MOTION ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. BOUNDARIES AND MERGING CELLS WILL BE
NEEDED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEARLY STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING STORMS. WV LOOP SHOWS
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
RETROGRADE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING
QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WE KEPT
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY GIVEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. KEPT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS.

SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES DIFFUSE THOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGERS.

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE IN THE WEST BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED FOR
SATURDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN A BAND FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAST AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
ALONG THE CSRA AND SRN MIDLANDS REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT A CONTINUED TREND OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH INITIALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WILL MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221815
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE
TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW MOVING STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN A BAND FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEAST AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
ALONG THE CSRA AND SRN MIDLANDS REGION. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECT A CONTINUED TREND OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH INITIALLY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA WILL MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS. ONCE AGAIN...BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG/STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 221054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT
OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PREFER HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BLANKETING THE REGION WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING PREDOMINATELY LIFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS LOW AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 221054
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
654 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT
OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PREFER HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BLANKETING THE REGION WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING PREDOMINATELY LIFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS LOW AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 220754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT
OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PREFER HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST. WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF CAE/CUB WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
ATTM AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
INCREASES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
354 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY MOIST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EAST MIDLANDS AND NUMEROUS OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
LATER TODAY. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY LIFT NORTH INTO
EASTERN GEORGIA/WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA ENHANCING LIFT BUT
OVERALL...LIFT APPEARS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS. PREFER HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL SPECTRUM AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOWER POPS AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH LESS CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW/WEAK WARM ADVECTION. WARMER THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK...A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE EAST...AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF COAST. WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF CAE/CUB WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR THROUGH MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE LATE MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
ATTM AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
INCREASES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS
TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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