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000
FXUS62 KCAE 051822
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.  THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MOVING NE TOWARD
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. S/W ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. REGIONAL
88D COMPOSITE ALREADY SHOWS ONE LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE CWA. AN
ADDITIONAL LINE IS MOVING ACROSS NRN GA AND CONVECTION ACROSS SERN
GA/LOWCOUNTRY IS MOVING NE AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEABREEZE.
THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS NEAR
THE COAST. TO THE WEST COLD POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED
LOW WILL STAY MAINLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE/SRN APPALACHIANS.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY ROTATING FROM SW TO NE
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ANYTIME OVERNIGHT. AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE VERY CLOSE
AND STAYED IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND SHIFT WELL TO OUR NE WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY. WEAK
SURFACE WAVE WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER
OUR REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR NORTH
AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH AXIS OF COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST FA AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS WILL PROVIDE BETTER POPS FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST FA. BY
TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR E AND
NE WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTH
BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
EAST INTO OUR FA WITH BEST MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CHANCES POPS
MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTH AND EAST FA AIDED BY SEA BREEZE...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WED THRU SAT/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...POSSIBLY LOW END CHANCE S/E FA NEAR SEA
BREEZE...AND PROVIDE A WARMING TREND. TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH
100 BY LATE WEEK AS H85 DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE ALREADY SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND WESTERN NRN CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
SHORT WAVES IN AL/GA CONTINUE TO MOVE NE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FROM 7 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA. AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN THE TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 051822
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY.  THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND MOVING NE TOWARD
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. S/W ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDLANDS/CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. REGIONAL
88D COMPOSITE ALREADY SHOWS ONE LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE CWA. AN
ADDITIONAL LINE IS MOVING ACROSS NRN GA AND CONVECTION ACROSS SERN
GA/LOWCOUNTRY IS MOVING NE AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEABREEZE.
THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS NEAR
THE COAST. TO THE WEST COLD POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED
LOW WILL STAY MAINLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE/SRN APPALACHIANS.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY ROTATING FROM SW TO NE
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ANYTIME OVERNIGHT. AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE VERY CLOSE
AND STAYED IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND SHIFT WELL TO OUR NE WITH UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY. WEAK
SURFACE WAVE WILL SHIFT TO OUR NE WITH SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER
OUR REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR NORTH
AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH AXIS OF COPIOUS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST FA AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS WILL PROVIDE BETTER POPS FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST FA. BY
TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR E AND
NE WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE AS UPPER HIGH TO OUR SOUTH
BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
EAST INTO OUR FA WITH BEST MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CHANCES POPS
MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTH AND EAST FA AIDED BY SEA BREEZE...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WED THRU SAT/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTH INTO
OUR REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...POSSIBLY LOW END CHANCE S/E FA NEAR SEA
BREEZE...AND PROVIDE A WARMING TREND. TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH
100 BY LATE WEEK AS H85 DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE ALREADY SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND WESTERN NRN CSRA/WRN MIDLANDS. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
SHORT WAVES IN AL/GA CONTINUE TO MOVE NE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FROM 7 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA. AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN THE TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051516
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1116 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND LATE TONIGHT. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER
AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF
WEAK H5 JET WILL ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH
PW`S AROUND 2.0 WILL CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES AROUND 1.7
INCHES WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GA NORTHEAST INTO SC.
ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH LIS AROUND -6
ACROSS THE CSRA TO -4 ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES...BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
A TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE LOW KICKS OUT. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS
TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATIONS OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MORE
DIURNAL. ON THE DOWNSIDE THOUGH...IT WILL BRING A RETURN OF HOTTER
TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 7 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 051516
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1116 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND LATE TONIGHT. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER
AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF
WEAK H5 JET WILL ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH
PW`S AROUND 2.0 WILL CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PW VALUES AROUND 1.7
INCHES WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GA NORTHEAST INTO SC.
ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH LIS AROUND -6
ACROSS THE CSRA TO -4 ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES...BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
A TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE LOW KICKS OUT. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS
TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATIONS OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MORE
DIURNAL. ON THE DOWNSIDE THOUGH...IT WILL BRING A RETURN OF HOTTER
TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 7 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050804
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
404 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND LATE TONIGHT. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH
WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET
WILL ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND
2.0 WILL CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
A TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE LOW KICKS OUT. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS
TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATIONS OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MORE
DIURNAL. ON THE DOWNSIDE THOUGH...IT WILL BRING A RETURN OF HOTTER
TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILALBE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND MONDAY. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET WILL
ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND 2.0
WILL CUASE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW
SEVERE CRITERA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILALBE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND MONDAY. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET WILL
ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND 2.0
WILL CUASE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW
SEVERE CRITERA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILALBE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND MONDAY. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET WILL
ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND 2.0
WILL CUASE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW
SEVERE CRITERA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050622
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND MONDAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS AVAILALBE SO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND MONDAY. WV SHOWS A COUPLE OF S/WVS OVER AL/GA WHICH WILL SWING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RRQ OF WEAK H5 JET WILL
ASSIST IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND HIGH PW`S AROUND 2.0
WILL CUASE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY TSTMS. H85 JET NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY SO ANY WINDS THAT MIX DOWN IN TSTMS SHOULD BE BELOW
SEVERE CRITERA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVES IN AL AND GA MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS OR FOG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATING.NEXT BATCH
OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WESTERN GA AND IS ALSO DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY. FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVE IN
WESTERN GA MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 05Z...THEN BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES AND DISSIPATING.NEXT BATCH
OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WESTERN GA AND IS ALSO DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY. FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINS LOW DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE SHORT WAVE IN
WESTERN GA MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES FROM 16Z ONWARD AND WILL ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 05Z...THEN BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050225 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF OGB. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINING LOW
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
SHRA/TSRA ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01Z...THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 050225 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF OGB. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINING LOW
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
SHRA/TSRA ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01Z...THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050225 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING GENERALLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A WEAKENING CLUSTER
OF STORMS PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA. THINK THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA COULD IMPACT PARTS OF
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM INDICATE THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF OGB. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINING LOW
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
SHRA/TSRA ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01Z...THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 042358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF OGB. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINING LOW
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
SHRA/TSRA ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01Z...THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 042358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF OGB. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINING LOW
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
SHRA/TSRA ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 01Z...THEN
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS AT 13Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 16 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOWER CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042251 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 042251 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 042251 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 042251 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF MODERATE
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAINED CONFINED TO THE SOUTH SECTION
WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS. EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTH PART THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...SHOWERS
WERE SCATTERED AND WEAK.

ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD AFFECT
THE AREA TONIGHT MAINTAINING A CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF MODERATE
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAINED CONFINED TO THE SOUTH SECTION
WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDINESS. EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTH PART THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...SHOWERS
WERE SCATTERED AND WEAK.

ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD AFFECT
THE AREA TONIGHT MAINTAINING A CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYED AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041642
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041642
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041642
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041642
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041518
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1118 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041518
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1118 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SECTION WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE SUN HAS OCCURRED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING STRONG HEATING.

CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041157
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE
OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SHOW THE JET WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTS VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 041157
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE
OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SHOW THE JET WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTS VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041157
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE
OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS SHOW THE JET WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNAL GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OBSERVATION TRENDS PLUS THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE WILL BE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HRRR DISPLAYED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE 300 PM
TO 500 PM TIME FRAME. THE ARW AND SPC WRF HAD LESS COVERAGE.
UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS THE HRRR. THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGESTS VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS EXPLICITLY IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNALY GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNALY GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...REMAINING THERE
INTO MONDAY. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW...AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD CHANCE TO
LOW END LIKELY POPS APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR SUNDAY...WITH
POPS FOR MONDAY SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY AROUND 90 DEGREES...BUT CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP THOSE READINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH FLATTENS
OUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN
HINTS AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WENT WITH
DIURNALY GENERATED POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONGER TERM. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040631
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040631
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
231 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL 850MB JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...PW
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
WITH YESTERDAYS STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
H85 WINDS MIXING DOWN. HAVE CUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF RW/TRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE WEST
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL TROF TO LIFT NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DECREASING THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS AND POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS
CURRENTLY SHOW NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA AS AREA REMAINS
RATHER STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE
SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA FROM EASTERN AL INTO WEST-CENTRAL
GA. LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER. THE LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ACTIVITY MOVING CLOSER TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE/MODEL
POPS RATHER LOW ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS. BIG DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. HAVE TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS BASED ON LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AND LESS CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FROM EARLIER STORMS AND RADAR IS
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. THE UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS AS WE ARE LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NAM/HRRR SHOWING POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
AL/GA AND LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS STARTED AT 05Z AGS/DNL AND 08Z
CAE/CUB BUT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...SUPPORTED BY VFR FORECASTS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE
WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. RADAR TRENDS
CURRENTLY SHOW NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA AS AREA REMAINS
RATHER STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE
SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA FROM EASTERN AL INTO WEST-CENTRAL
GA. LOOKS AS THOUGH THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE IF THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER. THE LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...MAIN TROUGH
AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ACTIVITY MOVING CLOSER TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE/MODEL
POPS RATHER LOW ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS. BIG DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. HAVE TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS BASED ON LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AND LESS CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FROM EARLIER STORMS AND RADAR IS
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. THE UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS AS WE ARE LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NAM/HRRR SHOWING POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
AL/GA AND LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS STARTED AT 05Z AGS/DNL AND 08Z
CAE/CUB BUT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...SUPPORTED BY VFR FORECASTS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE
WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 040014
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
814 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS CURRENTLY SHOW NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS AREA REMAINS RATHER STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THE
LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ACTIVITY MOVING
CLOSER TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
GUIDANCE/MODEL POPS RATHER LOW ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. BIG DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS BASED ON
LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND LESS CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.

ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED FROM EARLIER STORMS AND RADAR IS
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. THE UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS AS WE ARE LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NAM/HRRR SHOWING POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
AL/GA AND LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO
HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS STARTED AT 05Z AGS/DNL AND 08Z
CAE/CUB BUT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...SUPPORTED BY VFR FORECASTS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID MORNING FROM THE
WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE TO
HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS
AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION SUPPORT
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATION
TRENDS AND MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 031722
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
122 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE TRAINING HAS PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND IN THE SOUTH PART. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE
TO HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR
TRENDS AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION
SUPPORT LIMITED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG
WIND MAY MIX DOWN DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY
DURING THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-025-
     030-035>037-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031722
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
122 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE TRAINING HAS PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND IN THE SOUTH PART. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE
TO HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR
TRENDS AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION
SUPPORT LIMITED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG
WIND MAY MIX DOWN DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY
DURING THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-025-
     030-035>037-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 031722
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
122 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE TRAINING HAS PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND IN THE SOUTH PART. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

AN H85 JET AND SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY CONTINUE
TO HELP CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR
TRENDS AND STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION
SUPPORT LIMITED COVERAGE. WE HAVE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO
GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG
WIND MAY MIX DOWN DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY
DURING THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-025-
     030-035>037-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031407
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT A TRAINING RADAR PATTERN WAS SETTING UP WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUSTAINED BY THE STRONG H85 JET. THE ANALYSIS
SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES. WE HAVE POSTED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TODAY.

THE LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN APPROACHING THE CSRA AND SOUTH
MIDLANDS FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING INDICATES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG. THE
ANALYSIS SHOWED H85 WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON THIS SHEAR COMBINED
WITH SURFACE- BASED LI/S LIKELY LOWERING TO -4 TO -6 IN THE SOUTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG
WIND MAY MIX DOWN DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-020-
     025>028-030-031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 031407
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT A TRAINING RADAR PATTERN WAS SETTING UP WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUSTAINED BY THE STRONG H85 JET. THE ANALYSIS
SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES. WE HAVE POSTED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TODAY.

THE LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN APPROACHING THE CSRA AND SOUTH
MIDLANDS FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING INDICATES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG. THE
ANALYSIS SHOWED H85 WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON THIS SHEAR COMBINED
WITH SURFACE- BASED LI/S LIKELY LOWERING TO -4 TO -6 IN THE SOUTH
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE TAF
PERIOD MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET. OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. VERY STRONG
WIND MAY MIX DOWN DURING SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR
FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ018-020-
     025>028-030-031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 031031
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SATPIX
SHOW WEAK S/WV MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE...CSRA...AND INTO MIDLANDS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH TO THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING.

ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
OUTSIDE OF RAIN ACTIVITY AT ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 14Z THEN
BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY
BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z TODAY. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE
MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ALL
FORECAST AREA TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030730
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
330 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SATPIX
SHOW WEAK S/WV MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE AND INTO MIDLANDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH TO THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA BETWEEN 07-10Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
TSTMS. IFR CIGS AT OGB TIL AROUND 14Z THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ALL
FORECAST AREA TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030730
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
330 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SATPIX
SHOW WEAK S/WV MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE AND INTO MIDLANDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH TO THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA BETWEEN 07-10Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
TSTMS. IFR CIGS AT OGB TIL AROUND 14Z THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ALL
FORECAST AREA TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030730
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
330 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SATPIX
SHOW WEAK S/WV MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE AND INTO MIDLANDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH TO THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS TONIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST SHOULD SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS STILL APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINE THIS WILL A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO
APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM. MAIN UPPER
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL BRING
MORE OF A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE UPPER PATTERN HINTS AT ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A BLEND HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA BETWEEN 07-10Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
TSTMS. IFR CIGS AT OGB TIL AROUND 14Z THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ALL
FORECAST AREA TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 030559
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
159 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING/...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SATPIX SHOW WEAK S/WV MOVING
THROUGH UPSTATE AND INTO MIDLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO
NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES
SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO
OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING
OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN
UPPER LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.

SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BETWEEN 07-10Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSTMS. IFR CIGS AT
OGB TIL AROUND 14Z THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z TODAY. SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POSSIBLITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ALL FORECAST
AREA TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
23





000
FXUS62 KCAE 030559
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
159 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING/...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SATPIX SHOW WEAK S/WV MOVING
THROUGH UPSTATE AND INTO MIDLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO
NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES
SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO
OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING
OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN
UPPER LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.

SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BETWEEN 07-10Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSTMS. IFR CIGS AT
OGB TIL AROUND 14Z THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z TODAY. SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POSSIBLITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ALL FORECAST
AREA TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
23




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030559
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
159 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING/...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SATPIX SHOW WEAK S/WV MOVING
THROUGH UPSTATE AND INTO MIDLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO
NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES
SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO
OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING
OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN
UPPER LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.

SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BETWEEN 07-10Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSTMS. IFR CIGS AT
OGB TIL AROUND 14Z THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z TODAY. SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POSSIBLITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ALL FORECAST
AREA TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
23





000
FXUS62 KCAE 030559
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
159 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING/...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SATPIX SHOW WEAK S/WV MOVING
THROUGH UPSTATE AND INTO MIDLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO
NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES
SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO
OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING
OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN
UPPER LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.

SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BETWEEN 07-10Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSTMS. IFR CIGS AT
OGB TIL AROUND 14Z THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z TODAY. SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POSSIBLITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ALL FORECAST
AREA TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
23




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030242
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WV LOOP SHOWS TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE
MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PALMETTO STATE IS MAINLY FROM THE WEST.
MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL WEAK S/WS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION HAS REALLY
STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE CWA...DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF A WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS AFTER RAINFALL COOLED THE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS
MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SEEM REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER
TIMES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR
NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER
THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN UPPER
LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.

SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY
LIGHT RAIN REMAINING OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH 01Z. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT REGARDING POSSIBLE
FOG/STRATUS DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO NOT FORECAST ANY RESTRICTIONS AND THERE IS A FORECAST LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND NOT FAVOR
FOG BUT THINK THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
EARLY MORNING. MODELS ALSO INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
WITH POSSIBLE STORMS MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE 09Z-14Z AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW AGAIN ON FRIDAY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BUT WILL ALLOW
LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION WHEN BETTER TIMING AND
LOCATION INFORMATION IS KNOWN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
23




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030027
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
827 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION THAT PRODUCED STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL APPROACHING THE COAST THIS EVENING. 88D SHOWS MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THE TREND FOR THE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ON THE DECLINE ACROSS THE SRN MIDLANDS/SRN
CSRA. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
AWAY FROM THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING.

CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS
MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SEEM REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER
TIMES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR
NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER
THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN UPPER
LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.

SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY
LIGHT RAIN REMAINING OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH 01Z. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT REGARDING POSSIBLE
FOG/STRATUS DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO NOT FORECAST ANY RESTRICTIONS AND THERE IS A FORECAST LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND NOT FAVOR
FOG BUT THINK THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
EARLY MORNING. MODELS ALSO INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
WITH POSSIBLE STORMS MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE 09Z-14Z AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW AGAIN ON FRIDAY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BUT WILL ALLOW
LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION WHEN BETTER TIMING AND
LOCATION INFORMATION IS KNOWN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 030027
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
827 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION THAT PRODUCED STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL APPROACHING THE COAST THIS EVENING. 88D SHOWS MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THE TREND FOR THE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ON THE DECLINE ACROSS THE SRN MIDLANDS/SRN
CSRA. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
AWAY FROM THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING.

CLOUDINESS AND MIXING SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS
MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SEEM REASONABLE. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER
TIMES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO OUR
NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER
THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN UPPER
LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.

SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY
LIGHT RAIN REMAINING OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH
THROUGH 01Z. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT REGARDING POSSIBLE
FOG/STRATUS DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO NOT FORECAST ANY RESTRICTIONS AND THERE IS A FORECAST LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND NOT FAVOR
FOG BUT THINK THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
EARLY MORNING. MODELS ALSO INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
WITH POSSIBLE STORMS MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE 09Z-14Z AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW AGAIN ON FRIDAY SHOULD YIELD GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BUT WILL ALLOW
LATER FORECASTS TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION WHEN BETTER TIMING AND
LOCATION INFORMATION IS KNOWN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





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