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000
FXUS62 KCAE 200242
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SC/GA COAST WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF GA
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH SOME SHOWERS
REPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF
SC AND GA...WITH A FEW STRIKES NOTED AROUND THE CHS AND MYR AREAS.
WITH THE LOW SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION WILL EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPECT TO RAINFALL...HOWEVER WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL
SEE THE WINDS INCREASE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND A BIT HIGHER ON AREA LAKES. LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREA LAKES FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 11
PM SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z.

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 13Z...REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3 MILES.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 05Z AND
LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 13Z. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KCAE 200242
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SC/GA COAST WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF GA
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH SOME SHOWERS
REPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF
SC AND GA...WITH A FEW STRIKES NOTED AROUND THE CHS AND MYR AREAS.
WITH THE LOW SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION WILL EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPECT TO RAINFALL...HOWEVER WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL
SEE THE WINDS INCREASE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND A BIT HIGHER ON AREA LAKES. LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREA LAKES FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 11
PM SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z.

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 13Z...REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3 MILES.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 05Z AND
LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 13Z. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 200007
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
805 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE FL/GA COAST AND CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. SOME INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS COASTAL GA AND INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS AREA LAKES
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR 11PM TONIGHT THROUGH 11PM
SUNDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS
AND OCCASIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH...LOWER POPS IN THE CSRA OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE LOW BIAS EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z.

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 13Z...REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3 MILES.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS BELOW 1000 FT/IFR FROM 03Z THROUGH
AROUND 13Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING.
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 200007
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
805 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE FL/GA COAST AND CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. SOME INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS COASTAL GA AND INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS AREA LAKES
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR 11PM TONIGHT THROUGH 11PM
SUNDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS
AND OCCASIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH...LOWER POPS IN THE CSRA OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE LOW BIAS EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z.

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 13Z...REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3 MILES.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS BELOW 1000 FT/IFR FROM 03Z THROUGH
AROUND 13Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING.
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 192259
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
659 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE FL/GA COAST AND CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. SOME INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS COASTAL GA AND INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS AREA LAKES
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR 11PM TONIGHT THROUGH 11PM
SUNDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS
AND OCCASIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH...LOWER POPS IN THE CSRA OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE LOW BIAS EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR KJAX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3
MILES. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVE HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT/IFR THROUGH
AROUND 13Z SUNDAY. THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 192259
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
659 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE FL/GA COAST AND CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. SOME INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS COASTAL GA AND INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS AREA LAKES
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR 11PM TONIGHT THROUGH 11PM
SUNDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS
AND OCCASIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH...LOWER POPS IN THE CSRA OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT QPF
EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE LOW BIAS EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR KJAX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3
MILES. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVE HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT/IFR THROUGH
AROUND 13Z SUNDAY. THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 192100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FOCUS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...LOWER POPS IN THE CSRA
OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT QPF EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE LOW BIAS EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR KJAX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3
MILES. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVE HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT/IFR THROUGH
AROUND 13Z SUNDAY. THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 192100
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FOCUS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...LOWER POPS IN THE CSRA
OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT QPF EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE LOW BIAS EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR KJAX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3
MILES. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVE HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT/IFR THROUGH
AROUND 13Z SUNDAY. THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 191833
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FOCUS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...LOWER POPS IN THE CSRA
OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT QPF EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE LOW BIAS EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3
MILES. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVE HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT/IFR THROUGH
AROUND 13Z SUNDAY. THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191833
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FOCUS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...LOWER POPS IN THE CSRA
OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT QPF EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE LOW BIAS EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3
MILES. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVE HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT/IFR THROUGH
AROUND 13Z SUNDAY. THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 191814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
214 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FOCUS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...LOWER POPS IN THE CSRA
OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT QPF EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE LOW BIAS EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY.
WE USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE EAST
SECTION. CLOUDINESS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW SUPPORT USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD REDUCING VISIBLITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3
MILES. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVE HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT/IFR THROUGH
AROUND 13Z SUNDAY. THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
214 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A FOCUS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST MIDLANDS/PEE DEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...LOWER POPS IN THE CSRA
OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT QPF EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE LOW BIAS EXPECT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY.
WE USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE EAST
SECTION. CLOUDINESS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW SUPPORT USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD REDUCING VISIBLITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3
MILES. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVE HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FT/IFR THROUGH
AROUND 13Z SUNDAY. THEN CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 191343
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
943 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
BELIEVE RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS LIFT AND MORE
SHALLOW MOISTURE. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS
AND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. USED THE
COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT THE NAM AND
GFS MOS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THE GFS DISPLAYS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. BELIEVE LINGERING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE EAST SECTION.
CLOUDINESS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW SUPPORT USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST LATER THIS EVENING. BULK OF
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TO AROUND 20 KTS OR HIGHER. CEILINGS MAY
IMPROVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 191148
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BELIEVE
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS LIFT AND MORE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THE GFS DISPLAYS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. BELIEVE LINGERING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE EAST SECTION.
CLOUDINESS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW SUPPORT USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST LATER THIS EVENING. BULK OF
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TO AROUND 20 KTS OR HIGHER. CEILINGS MAY
IMPROVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 191148
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BELIEVE
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS LIFT AND MORE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THE GFS DISPLAYS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. BELIEVE LINGERING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE EAST SECTION.
CLOUDINESS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW SUPPORT USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST LATER THIS EVENING. BULK OF
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TO AROUND 20 KTS OR HIGHER. CEILINGS MAY
IMPROVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 191024
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BELIEVE
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS LIFT AND MORE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THE GFS DISPLAYS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. BELIEVE LINGERING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE EAST SECTION.
CLOUDINESS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW SUPPORT USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST LATER THIS EVENING. BULK OF
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE ONSHORE AND
INTO THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 191024
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
624 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BELIEVE
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS LIFT AND MORE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THE GFS DISPLAYS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. BELIEVE LINGERING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE EAST SECTION.
CLOUDINESS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW SUPPORT USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST LATER THIS EVENING. BULK OF
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE ONSHORE AND
INTO THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 191007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BELIEVE
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS LIFT AND MORE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THE GFS DISPLAYS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. BELIEVE LINGERING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE EAST SECTION.
CLOUDINESS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW SUPPORT USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND BLANKETING THE TAF SITES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
MOISTURE ONSHORE AND INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 191007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BELIEVE
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS LIFT AND MORE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THE GFS DISPLAYS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. BELIEVE LINGERING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE EAST SECTION.
CLOUDINESS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW SUPPORT USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND BLANKETING THE TAF SITES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
MOISTURE ONSHORE AND INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 190704
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
304 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS LIFT AND MORE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THE GFS DISPLAYS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. BELIEVE LINGERING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. WE USED AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. CLOUDINESS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORT
USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND BLANKETING THE TAF SITES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
MOISTURE ONSHORE AND INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 190642
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
242 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS LIFT AND MORE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THE GFS DISPLAYS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. BELIEVE LINGERING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. WE USED AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. CLOUDINESS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORT
USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND BLANKETING THE TAF SITES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
MOISTURE ONSHORE AND INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 190642
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
242 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS LIFT AND MORE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THE GFS DISPLAYS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. BELIEVE LINGERING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. WE USED AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. CLOUDINESS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORT
USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND BLANKETING THE TAF SITES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
MOISTURE ONSHORE AND INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 190513
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NORTH
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN NORTH FLORIDA. A CLOSED UPPER LOW
REMAINS NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
DRY INTRUSION PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING THE EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BUT THE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS SHIFTED INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
TAKING PLACE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK BUT HAVE DECREASED
POPS A BIT AFTER 09Z FROM THE SOUTH AS THE DRY INTRUSION WORKS ITS
WAY NORTHEASTWARD AND RESULTS IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

DUAL POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN REALLY GOOD
RELATIVE TO OBSERVED RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS AND HIGHEST TOTALS IN BURKE COUNTY GEORGIA WHERE UP TO
2.5 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN. A CALL TO BURKE COUNTY REVEALED NO
WATER PROBLEMS AND THINK THE STEADY RAINFALL IS FALLING AT RATES
LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLE DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP
FOR SATURDAY. RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW
SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE SC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND BLANKETING THE TAF SITES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
MOISTURE ONSHORE AND INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 190513
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
113 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NORTH
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN NORTH FLORIDA. A CLOSED UPPER LOW
REMAINS NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
DRY INTRUSION PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING THE EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BUT THE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS SHIFTED INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
TAKING PLACE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK BUT HAVE DECREASED
POPS A BIT AFTER 09Z FROM THE SOUTH AS THE DRY INTRUSION WORKS ITS
WAY NORTHEASTWARD AND RESULTS IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

DUAL POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN REALLY GOOD
RELATIVE TO OBSERVED RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS AND HIGHEST TOTALS IN BURKE COUNTY GEORGIA WHERE UP TO
2.5 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN. A CALL TO BURKE COUNTY REVEALED NO
WATER PROBLEMS AND THINK THE STEADY RAINFALL IS FALLING AT RATES
LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLE DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP
FOR SATURDAY. RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW
SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE SC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND BLANKETING THE TAF SITES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
MOISTURE ONSHORE AND INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 190335
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1135 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NORTH
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN NORTH FLORIDA. A CLOSED UPPER LOW
REMAINS NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
DRY INTRUSION PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING THE EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BUT THE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS SHIFTED INTO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
TAKING PLACE. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK BUT HAVE DECREASED
POPS A BIT AFTER 09Z FROM THE SOUTH AS THE DRY INTRUSION WORKS ITS
WAY NORTHEASTWARD AND RESULTS IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

DUAL POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN REALLY GOOD
RELATIVE TO OBSERVED RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS AND HIGHEST TOTALS IN BURKE COUNTY GEORGIA WHERE UP TO
2.5 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN. A CALL TO BURKE COUNTY REVEALED NO
WATER PROBLEMS AND THINK THE STEADY RAINFALL IS FALLING AT RATES
LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLE DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP
FOR SATURDAY. RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW
SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE SC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND BLANKETING THE TAF SITES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING MOISTURE ONSHORE AND INTO THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE AND WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 190234
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1034 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR THE MS/AL
BORDER WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DRY INTRUSION PUSHING
INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT 10PM. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE
EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BUT THE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS
SHIFTED INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS TAKING PLACE. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK BUT HAVE
DECREASED POPS A BIT AFTER 09Z FROM THE SOUTH AS THE DRY INTRUSION
WORKS ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD AND RESULTS IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

DUAL POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN REALLY GOOD
RELATIVE TO OBSERVED RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS AND HIGHEST TOTALS IN BURKE COUNTY GEORGIA WHERE UP TO
2.5 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN. A CALL TO BURKE COUNTY REVEALED NO
WATER PROBLEMS AND THINK THE STEADY RAINFALL IS FALLING AT RATES
LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLE DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR
SATURDAY. RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
FLUX SHIFTS TO THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS
THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
IN THE GULF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SE GA AND WILL BE
OFF THE SC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
STATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND BLANKETING THE TAF SITES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING MOISTURE ONSHORE AND INTO THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE AND WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 190234
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1034 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR THE MS/AL
BORDER WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DRY INTRUSION PUSHING
INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT 10PM. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING THE
EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTH CAROLINA
BUT THE MORE INTENSE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS
SHIFTED INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS TAKING PLACE. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK BUT HAVE
DECREASED POPS A BIT AFTER 09Z FROM THE SOUTH AS THE DRY INTRUSION
WORKS ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD AND RESULTS IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

DUAL POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN REALLY GOOD
RELATIVE TO OBSERVED RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
MIDLANDS AND HIGHEST TOTALS IN BURKE COUNTY GEORGIA WHERE UP TO
2.5 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN. A CALL TO BURKE COUNTY REVEALED NO
WATER PROBLEMS AND THINK THE STEADY RAINFALL IS FALLING AT RATES
LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS
SUGGEST POSSIBLE DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR
SATURDAY. RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
FLUX SHIFTS TO THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS
THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
IN THE GULF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SE GA AND WILL BE
OFF THE SC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
STATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
AND BLANKETING THE TAF SITES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND BEGIN TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING MOISTURE ONSHORE AND INTO THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE AND WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 182349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS CLOSED OFF NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST SOUTH
OF TALLAHASSEE.  STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NOTED ON THE CAE WSR-88D VAD
WIND PROFILE IN THE 3000-8000 FT LAYER WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPLY
RICH ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINING
WITH DIFLUENT 500MB FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS NOTED ON REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY.

CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGION AND NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE TO RISE AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS BEEN UNDER MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN.  GENERAL RAINFALL
TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF I-20
BUT PARTS OF BURKE COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AS
OBSERVED IN THE MIDVILLE AREA.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT ALL AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING.  RAINFALL RATES IN THE MORE INTENSE RAIN AREAS HAVE
BEEN GENERALLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES PER HOUR AND THINK THAT KIND OF
RAIN RATE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLOODING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OVER A PREVIOUS DRY SURFACE.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
IN THE GULF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SE GA AND WILL BE
OFF THE SC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
STATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AND BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING. AREA
WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REPORTING HEAVY RAIN. THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECT MODERATE
RAIN REDUCING VSBYS TO AROUND 3 MILES AND CIGS BETWEEN 700 AND
1500 FEET. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH NORTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 182349
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS CLOSED OFF NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST SOUTH
OF TALLAHASSEE.  STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NOTED ON THE CAE WSR-88D VAD
WIND PROFILE IN THE 3000-8000 FT LAYER WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPLY
RICH ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINING
WITH DIFLUENT 500MB FLOW AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS NOTED ON REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY.

CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGION AND NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE TO RISE AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS BEEN UNDER MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN.  GENERAL RAINFALL
TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH OF I-20
BUT PARTS OF BURKE COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AS
OBSERVED IN THE MIDVILLE AREA.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT ALL AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING.  RAINFALL RATES IN THE MORE INTENSE RAIN AREAS HAVE
BEEN GENERALLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES PER HOUR AND THINK THAT KIND OF
RAIN RATE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLOODING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OVER A PREVIOUS DRY SURFACE.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
IN THE GULF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SE GA AND WILL BE
OFF THE SC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
STATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AND BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST SATURDAY EVENING. AREA
WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REPORTING HEAVY RAIN. THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXPECT MODERATE
RAIN REDUCING VSBYS TO AROUND 3 MILES AND CIGS BETWEEN 700 AND
1500 FEET. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH NORTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181820
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
220 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
IN THE GULF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SE GA AND WILL BE
OFF THE SC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
STATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AORUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.

CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181820
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
220 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
IN THE GULF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SE GA AND WILL BE
OFF THE SC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
STATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S TO AORUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.

CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.

CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
SHOW MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT THE MOMENT BUT HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES NEAR
STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL
LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS GFS SUGGEST POSSIBLE
DRY SLOT BY AFTERNOON. RAISED THE POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND USED AN AVERAGE MOS POP FOR SATURDAY. RAIN
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FLUX SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. CLOUDINESS AND NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL
AND SHOWS TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 NEAR THE CORE. BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS WILL REDUCE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. SO ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. MODEL AVERAGE QPF IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA.
CURRENT THINKING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 1 TO 2
INCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS.

CEILINGS MAINLY VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST GEORGIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND
03Z WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP AND HRRR. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180943
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
543 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180943
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
543 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF MVFR
CIGS IN AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY SPREAD WEST INTO
THE FA. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS SPREADING
UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS N FL/S AL/S GA. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL BY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. USED THE HRRR AND SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180633
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LEADED TOWARD THE SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180633
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
233 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION TODAY. BELIEVE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BUT WILL BE DELAYED ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART BECAUSE OF
THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LEADED TOWARD THE SPC WRF FOR THE
START TIME OF THE RAIN. BELIEVE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH PART
THIS MORNING...THE CENTRAL SECTION ABOUT MIDDAY AND THE NORTH PART
LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDINESS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE AREA SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE NAM IS
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD AND MAY BE CORRECT SINCE THE
H5 CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE POPS
WERE CLOSE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS FOR POP FORECAST SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS
WAS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE H5 COLD POOL AND SHOWS
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR -18 OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM KEPT THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE HELD OFF
INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN SUPPORT A SOAKING
RAIN WITH TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES. IF THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR HERE AND
IN THE HEADWATERS...FLOODING MAY OCCUR AT SOME OF THE RIVER
FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AND HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. DRY RIDGING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING
THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180517
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180517
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS AT 05Z...EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NEAR TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NE TOWARDS N FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN
GRADUALLY SPREADING NE TOWARDS OUR FA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
RESULTANT LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS. IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
PROVIDE SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
BRING RAIN TOWARDS AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING NE TOWARDS THE
OTHER TERMINALS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
IFR.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR
IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180233
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PUSHING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THE TAF SITES NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 180233
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING THE TAF SITES. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH EASTERLY
WINDS PUSHING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THE TAF SITES NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180128 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
928 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180128 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
928 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
INT HE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
AND AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND HRRR HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 12Z AND SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH CURRENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN
A HALF INCH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO
LOWER THEM THROUGH 12Z. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
THIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 180002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND TRACKS EASTWARD. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM 06Z
ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SHOWERS BEGINNING AT
THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
BETWEEN 16Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171919
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171919
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH
UNTIL THAT TIME. STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH
NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST.
THE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN
THE TRACK WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME
EXPECT IT TO BE CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS
POSSIBLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...DRAGGING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.


CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE ARE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO I
WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH UNTIL THAT TIME.
STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH NORTH AND WEST
PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST. THE GRADIENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME EXPECT IT TO
CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY
PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171754
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT TO SEA EASTER
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INCONSISTENT BUT NOW SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. WHAT SEEMED LIKE A NICE EASTER WEEKEND
JUST TWO DAYS AGO NOW LOOKS TO BE WET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY SLOWLY IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOW.


CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW AND ARE VERY CLOSE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY AND BE JUST OFF THE GA COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY STACKED SO THAT THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE UPPER LOW.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE ARE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DECREASE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE
FLUX OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THE 500 MB FLOW HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO I
WOULD NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION THREAT TO DIMINISH UNTIL THAT TIME.
STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM JUST OVER A HALF INCH NORTH AND WEST
PARTS OF THE CWA TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST. THE GRADIENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIGHT SO ANY VARIATION IN THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME EXPECT IT TO
CLOUDY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THEN MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY
PROVIDED WE GET ENOUGH SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171653 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171653 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171651
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1251 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171651
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1251 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 171033
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SCT TO BKN
STRATOCU WITH VFR BASES EXPECTED TODAY. ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH LOWER BASES LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171019
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171019
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170742
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
342 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...EXPECT GENERALLY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170531
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170531
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL DISCREPANCY
REDUCES CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT AND TIMING. WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-020-
     021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 170358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1158 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HINTING AT BRINGING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH A 25 TO 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. CURRENT SATELLITE TREND SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING WEST/NORTHWEST.
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AS CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
ALSO INDICATES THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR RAIN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS
COLD BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND CLOUDINESS. CONFIDENCE
STILL LOW ON SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
COAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS...MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH/WEST THAN NAM WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE CWA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS SHOW CUTOFF LOWS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE AFTER 08Z BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PREVENTING ANY FOG
ISSUES. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AGAIN
AFTER 09Z AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE VFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     020-021.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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