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000
FXUS62 KCAE 301137
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 14Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA WITH
A TEMPO FOR TSRA ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z THROUGH 20Z
WITH CONVECTION AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301137
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 14Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA WITH
A TEMPO FOR TSRA ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z THROUGH 20Z
WITH CONVECTION AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301137
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 14Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA WITH
A TEMPO FOR TSRA ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z THROUGH 20Z
WITH CONVECTION AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301137
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. 88D REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 14Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA WITH
A TEMPO FOR TSRA ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z THROUGH 20Z
WITH CONVECTION AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300905
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300905
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
505 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM. THESE TRENDS PLUS THE DIURNAL TIMING FAVORS
SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND EXPECTED
AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300701
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. THIS TREND PLUS THE DIURNAL
TIMING FAVORS SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300701
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. THIS TREND PLUS THE DIURNAL
TIMING FAVORS SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300701
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. THIS TREND PLUS THE DIURNAL
TIMING FAVORS SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300701
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
301 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS...MAINLY EARLY TODAY.
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SHOWERS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST PART LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE LESS
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
INTO THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE. THIS TREND PLUS THE DIURNAL
TIMING FAVORS SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON A RELATIVELY WARM START AND
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SUN WITH A WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY A PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE HAVE POPS 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF DISPLAYS
THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS TRENDED
FARTHER SOUTH. KEPT JUST A SMALL POP IN THE SOUTH PART WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF THE COAST SHOULD CIRCULATE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE PLUS ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS
INDICATED GREATER MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE LESS
OF A SHOWER CHANCE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCE MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DRYING SATURDAY. WE FORECASTED CHANCE POPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT WITH A DRY PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO EAST FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300528
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY
WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300528
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY
WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300528
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY
WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300528
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MENTION -SHRA IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY
WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035
TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035
TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035
TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST. MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
RETURNING ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN GA WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OCCURRENCE FROST
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035
TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO
EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 292325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRY AIR
MASS WAS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
OCCURRENCE FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035 TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECTY WEST TO EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-
22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 292325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRY AIR
MASS WAS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
OCCURRENCE FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH BKN035 TO BKN045 FM 03Z-07Z
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. EXPECTY WEST TO EAST FROPA ACROSS THE FA FM 19Z-
22Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 292127
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
527 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRY AIR
MASS WAS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
OCCURRENCE FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE EVENING. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 292127
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
527 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DRY AIR
MASS WAS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
AND CLEAR SKIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER...THE
OCCURRENCE FROST SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE EVENING. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...SO THUNDER THREAT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
AREA. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
COLD ADVECTION LAGS BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK
COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DRY
FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR ALTHOUGH SBCAPE APPEARS LOW. WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT COLD ADVECTION LAGS
BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DRY FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77








000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT COLD ADVECTION LAGS
BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DRY FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77








000
FXUS62 KCAE 291811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
ALSO. AIR MASS WILL START OFF DRY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE...LOCAL NUMBERS AND TRENDS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA EARLY IN
THE DAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...35 KTS TO 50 KTS AT 850MB
WITH RESULTING SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS MIDLANDS DURING THE
MORNING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING
BUT EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO BE LACKING...PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOW...AROUND 1.00 INCH MAX. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS...SO POPS/QPF MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THAT
REGION. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING WITH LOW QPF. FRONT/TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT COLD ADVECTION LAGS
BEHIND FRONT. EXPECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S...POSSIBLY 70 IN THE CSRA. WEAK COLD/DRY ADVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO
CSRA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT/TROUGH AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
FRIDAY WITH BULK OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DRY FOR SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS STILL MAINLY NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SE AND S TONIGHT. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. WILL LIKELY ONLY PLACE
A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE TAF REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT
EXPECT READINGS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...STILL 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291141
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NC/VA. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290933
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
533 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 290933
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
533 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL RESIDING OVER
THE REGION TODAY. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. LOW-LEVEL
JET AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS...AND ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE. FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE
WINDS ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290618
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE
BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WEAKENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL RUNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 290618
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE
BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WEAKENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL RUNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 290618
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE
BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WEAKENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL RUNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ALSO. AIRMASS WILL START OFF DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO MODIFY. BETTER RAIN CHANCE SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING
SYSTEM. WITH PW VALUES STILL LOW...THE PRECIP MAY BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE CSRA. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 290526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE
BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WEAKENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL RUNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG
SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ROTATING THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED
SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1. HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW.
CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY
UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF AREA. WITH WARM
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY WARMER CSRA BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 290526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE
BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WEAKENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL RUNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG
SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ROTATING THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED
SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1. HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW.
CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY
UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF AREA. WITH WARM
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY WARMER CSRA BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 290526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE
BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WEAKENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL RUNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG
SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ROTATING THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED
SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1. HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW.
CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY
UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF AREA. WITH WARM
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY WARMER CSRA BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE
BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL JET AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WEAKENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL RUNS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE
50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG
SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ROTATING THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED
SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1. HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW.
CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY
UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF AREA. WITH WARM
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY WARMER CSRA BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290236
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1035 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER IN THE 40S THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET
DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION
SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290236
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1035 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER IN THE 40S THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET
DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION
SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 290236
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1035 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER IN THE 40S THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET
DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION
SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290144
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
944 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER IN THE 40S THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET
DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION
SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 7000 FEET EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. NW WINDS WILL
VEER NORTH BY MIDNIGHT THEN NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY 20Z AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 290144
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
944 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER IN THE 40S THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE 30S BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET
DIMINISHES. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION
SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 7000 FEET EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. NW WINDS WILL
VEER NORTH BY MIDNIGHT THEN NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY 20Z AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 282347
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE
REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 7000 FEET EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. NW WINDS WILL
VEER NORTH BY MIDNIGHT THEN NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY 20Z AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 282347
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE
REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 7000 FEET EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. NW WINDS WILL
VEER NORTH BY MIDNIGHT THEN NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY 20Z AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 282347
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE
REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 7000 FEET EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. NW WINDS WILL
VEER NORTH BY MIDNIGHT THEN NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY 20Z AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 282347
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
746 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE
REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
NEAR 7000 FEET EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. NW WINDS WILL
VEER NORTH BY MIDNIGHT THEN NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY 20Z AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OF THE COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 282308
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
708 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE
REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR
7000 FEET EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. W TO NW WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE WED INTO THU.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 282308
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
708 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION
OVERNIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD MORNING. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY NOT DROP
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. MOS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD FREEZE
REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR
7000 FEET EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. W TO NW WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE WED INTO THU.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 282102
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS
QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL
JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD
MORNING. SO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOS
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD
FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR
7000 FEET EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. W TO NW WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE WED INTO THU.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS
QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL
JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD
MORNING. SO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOS
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD
FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS COLD
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SCT SCU...WITH BASES ABOVE VFR
LEVEL...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY DUSK. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS AFTER DUSK. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LOWERING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE WED AND THU.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS
QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL
JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD
MORNING. SO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOS
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD
FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS COLD
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SCT SCU...WITH BASES ABOVE VFR
LEVEL...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY DUSK. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS AFTER DUSK. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LOWERING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE WED AND THU.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 281826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS
QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL
JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD
MORNING. SO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOS
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD
FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS COLD
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SCT SCU...WITH BASES ABOVE VFR
LEVEL...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY DUSK. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS AFTER DUSK. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LOWERING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE WED AND THU.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 281826
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS
QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL
JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD
MORNING. SO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOS
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD
FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA...NOTED SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1.
HOWEVER SREF CAPE PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF AREA. WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY
WARMER CSRA BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS COLD
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SCT SCU...WITH BASES ABOVE VFR
LEVEL...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY DUSK. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS AFTER DUSK. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LOWERING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE WED AND THU.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281820
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
220 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS
QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL
JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD
MORNING. SO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOS
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD
FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT SINCE SREF CAPE
PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF AREA.
WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY WARMER CSRA
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS COLD
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SCT SCU...WITH BASES ABOVE VFR
LEVEL...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY DUSK. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS AFTER DUSK. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LOWERING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE WED AND THU.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281820
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
220 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS
QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL
JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD
MORNING. SO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOS
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD
FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT SINCE SREF CAPE
PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF AREA.
WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY WARMER CSRA
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS COLD
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SCT SCU...WITH BASES ABOVE VFR
LEVEL...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY DUSK. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS AFTER DUSK. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LOWERING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE WED AND THU.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 281820
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
220 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS
QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL
JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD
MORNING. SO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOS
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD
FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT SINCE SREF CAPE
PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF AREA.
WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY WARMER CSRA
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS COLD
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SCT SCU...WITH BASES ABOVE VFR
LEVEL...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY DUSK. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS AFTER DUSK. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LOWERING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE WED AND THU.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281820
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
220 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS
QUITE DRY. WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND LOW- LEVEL
JET NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS TOWARD
MORNING. SO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOS
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL RUNS. LOCAL RADIATION SCHEME IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HARD
FREEZE REMAINS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ALOFT. READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL TRACK EAST AND DE-AMPLIFY...HOWEVER TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BRIEFLY MONDAY MORNING AIDED
BY 35-50 KTS 850MB JETMAX AND STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. IN ADDITION MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THRU UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QPF MOSTLY
LIGHT. MOS SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS A LITTLE
STRONGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WEAK...ALTHOUGH
THUNDER POSSIBLE/MAINLY CSRA WILL LEAVE OUT SINCE SREF CAPE
PROBABILITY LOW. CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FRONT...LIKELY UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS MOVES SOUTHEAST OF AREA.
WITH WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY WARMER CSRA
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...
DRY CONDITIONS BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS COLD
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SCT SCU...WITH BASES ABOVE VFR
LEVEL...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY DUSK. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS AFTER DUSK. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUE. INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LOWERING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED LATE WED AND THU.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 281011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
611 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30...WITH
A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME BELOW FREEZING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
COULD BE THE SURFACE WINDS. IF THE REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME FEEL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO JUSTIFY A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...AND OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 281011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
611 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30...WITH
A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME BELOW FREEZING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
COULD BE THE SURFACE WINDS. IF THE REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME FEEL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO JUSTIFY A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...AND OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 281011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
611 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30...WITH
A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME BELOW FREEZING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
COULD BE THE SURFACE WINDS. IF THE REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME FEEL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO JUSTIFY A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...AND OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 281011
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
611 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COLD
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30...WITH
A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME BELOW FREEZING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
COULD BE THE SURFACE WINDS. IF THE REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME FEEL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO JUSTIFY A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...AND OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.

WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 280918
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
518 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

REST OF TODAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30...WITH
A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME BELOW FREEZING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
COULD BE THE SURFACE WINDS. IF THE REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME FEEL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO JUSTIFY A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...AND OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 280918
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
518 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

REST OF TODAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30...WITH
A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME BELOW FREEZING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
COULD BE THE SURFACE WINDS. IF THE REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME FEEL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO JUSTIFY A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...AND OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 280918
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
518 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

REST OF TODAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30...WITH
A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME BELOW FREEZING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
COULD BE THE SURFACE WINDS. IF THE REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME FEEL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO JUSTIFY A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...AND OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 280918
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
518 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

REST OF TODAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30...WITH
A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME BELOW FREEZING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
COULD BE THE SURFACE WINDS. IF THE REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME FEEL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO JUSTIFY A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...AND OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE TAF SITES.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 280718
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
318 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

REST OF TODAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD
ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30...WITH
A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME BELOW FREEZING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
COULD BE THE SURFACE WINDS. IF THE REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME FEEL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO JUSTIFY A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/..
MODELS STILL INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...AND OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 280718
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
318 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

REST OF TODAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD
ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIR TO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE AIRMASS DRY...AND WINDS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND THE
CSRA...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30...WITH
A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME BELOW FREEZING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
COULD BE THE SURFACE WINDS. IF THE REMAIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME FEEL
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME IN
MANY LOCATIONS TO JUSTIFY A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
BY 14Z...THEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/..
MODELS STILL INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CWA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. BY 00Z THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...AND OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER RAINFALL CHANCE TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 280640
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
240 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY AROUND SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

REST OF TODAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION. DESPITE COLD
ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30 CENTRAL
AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 280521
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREPARES TO SWING INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 10Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND
DAYBREAK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 280521
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREPARES TO SWING INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 10Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND
DAYBREAK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 280521
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREPARES TO SWING INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 10Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND
DAYBREAK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 280521
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREPARES TO SWING INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 10Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND
DAYBREAK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 280202
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1002 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREPARES TO SWING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF CAE BY MIDNIGHT AND EXIT THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST
AROUND DAYBREAK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS
WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR THROUGH 06Z. ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATE VFR AFTER 07Z.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 280202
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1002 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREPARES TO SWING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF CAE BY MIDNIGHT AND EXIT THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST
AROUND DAYBREAK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS
WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR THROUGH 06Z. ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATE VFR AFTER 07Z.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 280202
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1002 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREPARES TO SWING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF CAE BY MIDNIGHT AND EXIT THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST
AROUND DAYBREAK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS
WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR THROUGH 06Z. ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATE VFR AFTER 07Z.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 280202
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1002 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREPARES TO SWING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF CAE BY MIDNIGHT AND EXIT THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST
AROUND DAYBREAK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS
WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR THROUGH 06Z. ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATE VFR AFTER 07Z.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 272345
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DECREASES. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE
BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 272345
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DECREASES. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE
BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 272103
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS 00Z-06Z TIME-FRAME. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 272103
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS 00Z-06Z TIME-FRAME. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 272103
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS 00Z-06Z TIME-FRAME. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 272103
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL A FEW
LINGER SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPSTATE.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS AT 5 PM WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PRODUCING MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS 00Z-06Z TIME-FRAME. AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT AGS/DNL.

GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 271805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR MASS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AND WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR ILM TO OGB TO AGS AT 130PM.
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED IN MORNING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF COLUMBIA.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A
FAST MOVING UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN GA AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SOME
LOCATIONS PUSHED OVER THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS EVENING.
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. CAE/CUB ARE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE 18Z-22Z TIME
FRAME BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.  AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 21Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OGB WILL WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THE 18Z-20Z TIME FRAME WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND
23Z OR SO.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT POPS
ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 271805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A COLD AIR MASS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
CENTER OF A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AND WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR ILM TO OGB TO AGS AT 130PM.
INSTABILITY DEVELOPED IN MORNING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF COLUMBIA.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A
FAST MOVING UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN GA AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SOME
LOCATIONS PUSHED OVER THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS EVENING.
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW- MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY UP AND
WITH MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. CAE/CUB ARE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE 18Z-22Z TIME
FRAME BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.  AGS/DNL MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 21Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR OTHERWISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OGB WILL WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THE 18Z-20Z TIME FRAME WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND
23Z OR SO.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT POPS
ARE RELATIVELY LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 271443 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1043 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR THIS MORNING
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF
COLUMBIA EXTENDING FROM NEAR GOLDSBORO NC TO WINNSBORO TO ATHENS
THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
SOUTHEASTWARD...MODEL FORECASTS OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPING AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW ALONG WITH SOME
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS MAY BE TOO FAR WEST
WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A BREAK LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOWLY FALLING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AS MOST
LOCATIONS FROM COLUMBIA NORTHWARD HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED THEIR HIGH
TEMP WHILE THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING LEFT BEFORE FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CAE/CUB BY 15Z AND EVENTUALLY CROSS
OGB/AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH.
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE EXPECTED BY NOW AT MOST TERMINALS BUT HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING AND ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE MADE IN 15Z ISSUANCE BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF
TERMINALS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OGB MAY BE IMPACTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271443 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1043 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR THIS MORNING
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF
COLUMBIA EXTENDING FROM NEAR GOLDSBORO NC TO WINNSBORO TO ATHENS
THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
SOUTHEASTWARD...MODEL FORECASTS OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPING AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW ALONG WITH SOME
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS MAY BE TOO FAR WEST
WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A BREAK LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOWLY FALLING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AS MOST
LOCATIONS FROM COLUMBIA NORTHWARD HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED THEIR HIGH
TEMP WHILE THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING LEFT BEFORE FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CAE/CUB BY 15Z AND EVENTUALLY CROSS
OGB/AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH.
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE EXPECTED BY NOW AT MOST TERMINALS BUT HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING AND ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE MADE IN 15Z ISSUANCE BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF
TERMINALS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OGB MAY BE IMPACTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC






000
FXUS62 KCAE 271443 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1043 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH OUR THIS MORNING
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF A COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF
COLUMBIA EXTENDING FROM NEAR GOLDSBORO NC TO WINNSBORO TO ATHENS
THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
SOUTHEASTWARD...MODEL FORECASTS OF A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPING AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW ALONG WITH SOME
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IN
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS MAY BE TOO FAR WEST
WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A BREAK LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER INCREASE IN POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOWLY FALLING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AS MOST
LOCATIONS FROM COLUMBIA NORTHWARD HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED THEIR HIGH
TEMP WHILE THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING LEFT BEFORE FALLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF...AND WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL ONLY GO 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR
POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE
ANY FROST ACROSS THE AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
MORNING AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FROST. ALSO IF WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER
WAY...FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS...OR A FROST ADVISORY...MAY BE
REQUIRED. GROWERS AND OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MON/MON NT. THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING
OUT BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE WED AND CHANCE
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CAE/CUB BY 15Z AND EVENTUALLY CROSS
OGB/AGS/DNL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH.
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE EXPECTED BY NOW AT MOST TERMINALS BUT HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING AND ADJUSTMENTS
WILL BE MADE IN 15Z ISSUANCE BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF
TERMINALS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OGB MAY BE IMPACTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...HC





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