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000
FXUS62 KCAE 241042
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL
SIDE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFF
THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN
A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT
THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K
FT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE
WITH NE WINDS. HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...AND
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...LEADING TO VEERING LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...WITH VFR BASES. LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS...AND
POSSIBLY VSBYS...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 241042
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL
SIDE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFF
THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN
A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT
THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K
FT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE
WITH NE WINDS. HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...AND
A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...LEADING TO VEERING LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE LATE TODAY WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...WITH VFR BASES. LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS...AND
POSSIBLY VSBYS...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 240719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MORNING WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL
SIDE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFF
THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN
A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT
THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K
FT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CSRA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE
SW EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NE AND INCREASED IN
SPEED BEHIND THE FEATURE...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN.
SO...NO FOG EXPECTED.

VFR TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT
TO PROVIDE SOME STRATOCU CLOUDINESS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
VFR BASES EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 240719
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MORNING WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING
TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL
SIDE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFF
THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SPC DAY 2 HAS AREA IN
A SEE TEXT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS
FRIDAY FROM MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS ON
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BEST
SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND THE PEE DEE...BUT BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT
THE MAIN S/W WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW AND HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH WB ZERO VALUES LESS THAN 10K
FT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...AS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CSRA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE
SW EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NE AND INCREASED IN
SPEED BEHIND THE FEATURE...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN.
SO...NO FOG EXPECTED.

VFR TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT
TO PROVIDE SOME STRATOCU CLOUDINESS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
VFR BASES EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT 05Z. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TO CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SW TONIGHT AS
HIGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MODELS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND AND POSSIBLY SURFACE WIND TO SHIFT TO NE AND PICK UP IN SPEED
LATER TONIGHT...ALSO ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AS WELL.
AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG AT MOST
TERMINALS...THOUGH SOME QUESTION EXISTS AT FOG PRONE AGS IN THE NEAR
TERM.

OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT TO PROVIDE SOME STRATOCU CLOUDINESS LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING WITH VFR BASES EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 240526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT 05Z. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TO CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SW TONIGHT AS
HIGH TO OUR NORTH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MODELS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND AND POSSIBLY SURFACE WIND TO SHIFT TO NE AND PICK UP IN SPEED
LATER TONIGHT...ALSO ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AS WELL.
AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG AT MOST
TERMINALS...THOUGH SOME QUESTION EXISTS AT FOG PRONE AGS IN THE NEAR
TERM.

OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT TO PROVIDE SOME STRATOCU CLOUDINESS LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING WITH VFR BASES EXPECTED.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240242
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A THREAT GIVEN NORTHEAST WINDS
SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 240022
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL
BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 232344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 232344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER SMOKE IN THE VCNTY OF
CUB/CAE COULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 03Z. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SPREADING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS PRECEDING. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 232110
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD
FOG UNLIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR
TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 232110
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST OF
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LEAVING MUCH LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. THE FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE THREAT OF FOG WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD
FOG UNLIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR
TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 231807
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
207 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE MIDLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ONLY DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FRONT ARE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A TAD COOLER. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT
IN VERY FEW CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT OF FOG
WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MAKE WIDESPREAD FOG UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AT
5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO HAS ENDED.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231807
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
207 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE MIDLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ONLY DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FRONT ARE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A TAD COOLER. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT
IN VERY FEW CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE THREAT OF FOG
WILL BE REDUCED IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THURSDAY AND A
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
DRY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND MIXING INDUCED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS BECOMES
WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND PWS ARE LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR FRIDAY. WEAK DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 24/10Z WHEN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KAGS...BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MAKE WIDESPREAD FOG UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AT
5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS AS COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO HAS ENDED.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 231138
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ENTIRE AREA BY 14Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMMING NW 5 TO 10KTS AS CDFNT PUSHES TO THE COAST BY 15Z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 231138
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ENTIRE AREA BY 14Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMMING NW 5 TO 10KTS AS CDFNT PUSHES TO THE COAST BY 15Z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 230857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
457 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS
STILL JUST TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR
REGION LATER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXISTS. SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE STAYING UP JUST
ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE...AND IS LEADING TO VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES. WILL GENERALLY INDICATE IFR VSBYS IN FOG...WITH
TEMPO PERIODS OF LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...ONCE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OR DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS...WHICHEVER COMES
FIRST...AND THE FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230857
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
457 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS
STILL JUST TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR
REGION LATER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXISTS. SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE STAYING UP JUST
ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE...AND IS LEADING TO VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES. WILL GENERALLY INDICATE IFR VSBYS IN FOG...WITH
TEMPO PERIODS OF LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...ONCE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OR DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS...WHICHEVER COMES
FIRST...AND THE FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 230753
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
353 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED. THERE ARE
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME FOR AN ADVISORY. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE AND HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. AS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.
MODELS DO INDICATE AT 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT/CALM MOST PLACES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY THEN MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. EXPECT A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK S/W MOVING ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND AFFECTING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE FLUX AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIFFUSE/WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
STALL NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALSO LOOK LOW. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS
STILL JUST TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXISTS. LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WHICH ARE STAYING UP JUST ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE.  WILL
INDICATE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR AT FOG PRONE
AGS. OTHERWISE...ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANY FOG
DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING ALONG THE AREA RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AS NEARLY DIMINISHED. SOME MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ON LAKE WATEREE BUT EXPECT THE POOL LEVEL ON THE LAKE TO
FALL BELOW 100.0 FEET AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS STILL WELL
TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH...WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS...WITH
MVFR VSBYS ALREADY DEVELOPING AT CAE/CUB AND SOME OTHER LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTH. LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WHICH ARE STAYING UP JUST ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE.
WILL INDICATE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONCE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANY FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVTIY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 230540
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MAIN FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS STILL WELL
TO OUR NORTH. MODELS INDICATE FRONT TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH...WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR ENTERING OUR REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS...WITH
MVFR VSBYS ALREADY DEVELOPING AT CAE/CUB AND SOME OTHER LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTH. LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE SURFACE AND/OR BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WHICH ARE STAYING UP JUST ENOUGH TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE.
WILL INDICATE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONCE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ANY FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECT VFR TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT MAY PROVIDE CIG RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVTIY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230249
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 08Z-13Z AND EVEN IFR
AT AGS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. NAM AND RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS
DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF
AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 230249
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES STILL
ON TAP WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 08Z-13Z AND EVEN IFR
AT AGS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. NAM AND RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS
DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF
AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 230010
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA. SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 230010
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA. SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 222358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 222358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z.

SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. WIDESPREAD MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY 06Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

GFS/LAMP MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FOG 07Z-13Z. NAM AND
RUC DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL JET FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THUS NO FOG.
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS DIMINISHING...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG
AT THE FOG PRONG LOCATIONS OF AGS/OGB. AFTER 14Z...VFR EXPECTED ALL
SITES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 222051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH
23/01Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT...
THOUGH VSBYS COULD DECREASE TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND COULD GET
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER IS RELATIVELY LOW. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING
AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWEST.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 222051
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
451 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH
EASTERN ALABAMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT
THIS TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS
FOR EARLY EVENING SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE TAF SITES THROUGH
23/01Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT...
THOUGH VSBYS COULD DECREASE TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND COULD GET
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SINCE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER IS RELATIVELY LOW. EXPECT
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS. EXPECT CLEARING
AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWEST.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NEAR TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SCTD
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC WRF AND NSSL WRF MODELS SHOWING
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
INDICATE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. THERE ARE
SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. NO LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT THIS
TIME WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE TN VALLEY AND NRN GA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT
LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING
POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCTD
CLOUDS AFTER 04Z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NEAR TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SCTD
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC WRF AND NSSL WRF MODELS SHOWING
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
INDICATE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. THERE ARE
SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. NO LIGHTNING STRIKES INDICATED AT THIS
TIME WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE TN VALLEY AND NRN GA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/SLGT CHC TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT
LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
STORM TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND INVERTED V FORECAST SOUNDING
POSSIBLE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION EXPECT AND PROBABLY OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER BUT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS UNDER FULL SUN AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN DRY AIR MASS EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
COOL SIDE OF MOS CONSENSUS. RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWS A MORE
ROBUST SHORT WAVE THAN ECMWF AND GFS. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN LOW
FRIDAY. CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CHANCE RAIN AND POSSIBLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCTD
CLOUDS AFTER 04Z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
958 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NEAR TN VALLEY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH SCTD SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC WRF AND NSSL WRF MODELS
SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA BY AROUND 20Z AND MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 03Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS AND LOCAL
CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS
SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8 WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER
DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB
ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 221358
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
958 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NEAR TN VALLEY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH SCTD SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC WRF AND NSSL WRF MODELS
SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA BY AROUND 20Z AND MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 03Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS AND LOCAL
CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS
SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8 WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER
DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA.
ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED FOR
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT LOW WET BULB
ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 221121
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
721 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS S/W APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS ALONG
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FRONT/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND LOCAL CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF
SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT
LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BRIEF PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220924
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
524 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS S/W APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS ALONG
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FRONT/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND LOCAL CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF
SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT
LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AT AGS...AND POSSIBLY OGB...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED
TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND
INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 220924
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
524 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS S/W APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS ALONG
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FRONT/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND LOCAL CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF
SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT
LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY MORNING FOG AT AGS...AND POSSIBLY OGB...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED
TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND
INCLUDE VCSH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 220814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
414 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS S/W APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS ALONG
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FRONT/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND LOCAL CONVECTIVE CHECKLIST INDICATE THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEAKLY/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND H8
WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL WRF
SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA. ENSEMBLE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. SPC HAS AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...BUT
LOW WET BULB ZERO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. A DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED
CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT A COOL MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS
THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE INCREASE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
DETAILS WITH ECMWF STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
WEAK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH WOULD WORK AGAINST FOG THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM AT MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD PROVIDE A FOG THREAT AT THE FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS...AGS/OGB.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77








000
FXUS62 KCAE 220636
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
236 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
TRACKS EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH TN AND GA AN INTO THE UPSTATE. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MODEST LIFT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING FACTOR BEING
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB WEST FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
ALSO APPEARS WEAK. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ALTHOUGH ADJUST TIMING LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NOT MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z- 06Z.

DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS DURING
THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WEAK.  THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH WOULD WORK AGAINST FOG THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM AT MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD PROVIDE A FOG THREAT AT THE FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS...AGS/OGB.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 220636
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
236 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
TRACKS EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH TN AND GA AN INTO THE UPSTATE. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MODEST LIFT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING FACTOR BEING
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB WEST FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
ALSO APPEARS WEAK. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ALTHOUGH ADJUST TIMING LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NOT MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z- 06Z.

DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS DURING
THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WEAK.  THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE INDICATES SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH WOULD WORK AGAINST FOG THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM AT MOST
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD PROVIDE A FOG THREAT AT THE FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS...AGS/OGB.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND INCLUDE VCSH
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 220213
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1013 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
TRACKS EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH TN AND GA AN INTO THE UPSTATE. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MODEST LIFT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING FACTOR BEING
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB WEST FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
ALSO APPEARS WEAK. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ALTHOUGH ADJUST TIMING LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NOT MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z- 06Z.

DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS DURING
THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WEAK.  THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH 09Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RADIATION FOG PARTICULARLY AT FOG PRONE OGB WHERE
SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR LONGER. LAMP PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES A CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES 09Z-12Z AT OGB ALTHOUGH
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NEAR CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AFTER 15Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER 17Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 220213
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1013 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
TRACKS EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH TN AND GA AN INTO THE UPSTATE. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MODEST LIFT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING FACTOR BEING
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB WEST FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
ALSO APPEARS WEAK. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ALTHOUGH ADJUST TIMING LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NOT MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z- 06Z.

DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS DURING
THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WEAK.  THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH 09Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RADIATION FOG PARTICULARLY AT FOG PRONE OGB WHERE
SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR LONGER. LAMP PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES A CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES 09Z-12Z AT OGB ALTHOUGH
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NEAR CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AFTER 15Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER 17Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 212348
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
TRACKS EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MODEST LIFT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING FACTOR BEING
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB WEST FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
ALSO APPEARS WEAK. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A
HARD TIME COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ALTHOUGH ADJUST TIMING LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NOT MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z- 06Z.

DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS DURING
THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WEAK.  THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH 09Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RADIATION FOG PARTICULARLY AT FOG PRONE OGB WHERE
SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR LONGER. LAMP PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES A CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES 09Z-12Z AT OGB ALTHOUGH
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NEAR CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AFTER 15Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER 17Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 212102
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
502 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE THE MID 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE AREA TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO A NOTED COOL
BIAS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MODEST LIFT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING FACTOR BEING
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB WEST FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
ALSO APPEARS WEAK. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD
TIME COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL
WRF SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ALTHOUGH ADJUST TIMING LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NOT MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z- 06Z.

DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS DURING
THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WEAK.  THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RADIATION FOG PARTICULARLY AT FOG PRONE OGB WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CLEAR LONGER. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES TOWARD DAYBREAK AT OGB ALTHOUGH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE UNFAVORABLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 212102
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
502 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE THE MID 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE AREA TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO A NOTED COOL
BIAS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MODEST LIFT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING FACTOR BEING
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB WEST FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
ALSO APPEARS WEAK. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD
TIME COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL
WRF SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ALTHOUGH ADJUST TIMING LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NOT MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z- 06Z.

DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS DURING
THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WEAK.  THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RADIATION FOG PARTICULARLY AT FOG PRONE OGB WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CLEAR LONGER. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES TOWARD DAYBREAK AT OGB ALTHOUGH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
ARE UNFAVORABLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 211814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
214 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE THE MID 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE AREA TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO A NOTED COOL
BIAS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MODEST LIFT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING FACTOR BEING
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB WEST FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
ALSO APPEARS WEAK. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD
TIME COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL
WRF SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ALTHOUGH ADJUST TIMING LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NOT MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z- 06Z.

DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS DURING
THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WEAK.  THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ROTATE TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS EVENING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF RADIATION FOG
PARTICULARLY AT FOG PRONE OGB WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR
LONGER. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK AT OGB ALTHOUGH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
UNFAVORABLE. LIGHT/CALM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 211814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
214 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE THE MID 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN THE AREA TONIGHT. ALOFT...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. LEANED
TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO A NOTED COOL
BIAS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MODEST LIFT EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AIR MASS WILL
BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIMITING FACTOR BEING
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB WEST FLOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT
ALSO APPEARS WEAK. STRONGER DYNAMICS PROBABLY ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE A HARD
TIME COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER LATEST SPC WRF AND LOCAL
WRF SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS ALTHOUGH ADJUST TIMING LATER IN
THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS FRONT NOT MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 03Z- 06Z.

DRY RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. LIMITED CLOUDS DURING
THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AXIS THROUGH MIDLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DIFFUSE FRONT/TROUGH FRIDAY. FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BUT MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WEAK.  THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ROTATE TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS EVENING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF RADIATION FOG
PARTICULARLY AT FOG PRONE OGB WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR
LONGER. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK AT OGB ALTHOUGH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
UNFAVORABLE. LIGHT/CALM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









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