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000
FXUS62 KCAE 011444
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1044 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST...WITH IN SITU WEDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CAROLINAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE MIDLANDS.

AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS WAS PRODUCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF SUMTER AND LEE COUNTIES. THIS AREA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE PEE DEE REGION BY MIDDAY.

ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER MS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR N AND NE WHILE APPEARING TO MOVE THE
COASTAL FRONT INLAND. DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS.

WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY GENERALLY WEAK TODAY WITH LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2C TO -3C AND WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB AT OR
BELOW 25 KNOTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC WITH LOW LCL AROUND 2000 FT. THINK HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL IS GREATEST RISK WITH AROUND 10KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTH SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND STORM MOTIONS
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. TRAINING OF STORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...THOUGH
WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS MAY PRODUCE A DAMAGING GUST OR TWO FROM
THE MOST INTENSE CELLS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITH LOWS
IN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE W
CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE POPS CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WITH A
WEAK UP-SLOPE COMPONENT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY...BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFLICTING MODEL
GUIDANCE MAKES IT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE VICINITY SHOWERS AND NO PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS
AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011444
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1044 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST...WITH IN SITU WEDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CAROLINAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE MIDLANDS.

AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS WAS PRODUCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF SUMTER AND LEE COUNTIES. THIS AREA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE PEE DEE REGION BY MIDDAY.

ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER MS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR N AND NE WHILE APPEARING TO MOVE THE
COASTAL FRONT INLAND. DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS.

WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY GENERALLY WEAK TODAY WITH LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2C TO -3C AND WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB AT OR
BELOW 25 KNOTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC WITH LOW LCL AROUND 2000 FT. THINK HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL IS GREATEST RISK WITH AROUND 10KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTH SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND STORM MOTIONS
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. TRAINING OF STORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...THOUGH
WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS MAY PRODUCE A DAMAGING GUST OR TWO FROM
THE MOST INTENSE CELLS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITH LOWS
IN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE W
CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE POPS CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WITH A
WEAK UP-SLOPE COMPONENT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY...BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFLICTING MODEL
GUIDANCE MAKES IT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE VICINITY SHOWERS AND NO PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS
AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 011021
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
621 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST...WITH IN SITU WEDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS
THE W CAROLINAS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY OVER MS...MOVES
INTO OUR REGION LATE TODAY. MODELS SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR N AND NE TODAY...WHILE
APPEARING TO MOVE THE FRONT SLIGHTLY INLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OVERALL BEST PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
EARLY...MAINLY TO OUR N AND E...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING LATER ELSEWHERE. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CLOUD COVER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
IT COULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AND EAST FA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WITH
OTHER INDICATIONS OF SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS WELL.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...THINK AN AVERAGE OF GOOD CHANCE
POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
FA. SEVERE CONVECTION NOT ANTICIPATED. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
GENERALLY WEAK TODAY WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2C TO -3C AND WINDS
AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH LOW LCL AROUND 2000 FT. THINK
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL IS GREATEST RISK WITH
AROUND 10KFT WARM CLOUD DEPTH SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND
STORM MOTIONS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. TRAINING OF STORMS WOULD ALSO BE
A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN. WPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE W
CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE POPS CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WITH A WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH IFR
STRATUS BLANKETING THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOWER VSBYS NOTED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT VSBYS WILL FALL
INTO THE LIFR/IFR RANGE.  EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INTERACT WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...CONFLICTING MODEL
GUIDANCE MAKES IT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE VICINITY SHOWERS AND NO PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS AT
THIS TIME.  LOW CLOUDS AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 011021
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
621 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST...WITH IN SITU WEDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS
THE W CAROLINAS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY OVER MS...MOVES
INTO OUR REGION LATE TODAY. MODELS SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR N AND NE TODAY...WHILE
APPEARING TO MOVE THE FRONT SLIGHTLY INLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OVERALL BEST PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
EARLY...MAINLY TO OUR N AND E...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING LATER ELSEWHERE. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CLOUD COVER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
IT COULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AND EAST FA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WITH
OTHER INDICATIONS OF SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS WELL.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...THINK AN AVERAGE OF GOOD CHANCE
POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
FA. SEVERE CONVECTION NOT ANTICIPATED. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
GENERALLY WEAK TODAY WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2C TO -3C AND WINDS
AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH LOW LCL AROUND 2000 FT. THINK
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL IS GREATEST RISK WITH
AROUND 10KFT WARM CLOUD DEPTH SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND
STORM MOTIONS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. TRAINING OF STORMS WOULD ALSO BE
A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN. WPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE W
CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE POPS CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WITH A WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH IFR
STRATUS BLANKETING THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOWER VSBYS NOTED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT VSBYS WILL FALL
INTO THE LIFR/IFR RANGE.  EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE MORNING AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INTERACT WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...CONFLICTING MODEL
GUIDANCE MAKES IT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE VICINITY SHOWERS AND NO PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS AT
THIS TIME.  LOW CLOUDS AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010544
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
144 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST...WITH IN SITU WEDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY ACROSS N
GA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE MAY MOVE IN LATE TODAY.
MODELS SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO OUR N AND NE TODAY...WHILE APPEARING TO MOVE THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY INLAND. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE
MAINLY TO OUR N AND NE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY FAVOR OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER
TO THE FRONT. SEVERE CONVECTION NOT ANTICIPATED. WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY GENERALLY WEAK TODAY WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2C TO
-3C AND WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO
2 INCHES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH LOW
LCL AROUND 2000 FT. THINK HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING
POTENTIAL IS GREATEST RISK WITH AROUND 10KFT WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND STORM MOTIONS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS. TRAINING OF STORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN.
WPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE W
CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE POPS CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z FRIDAY.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WITH A WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS BLANKETING THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED COOLING
OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR
RANGE DURING THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME ALL TERMINALS.  LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.  AS AN 850MB LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
UPSTATE ON FRIDAY...THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO
SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 010544
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
144 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST...WITH IN SITU WEDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CAROLINAS. AN UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY ACROSS N
GA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER IMPULSE MAY MOVE IN LATE TODAY.
MODELS SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO OUR N AND NE TODAY...WHILE APPEARING TO MOVE THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY INLAND. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE
MAINLY TO OUR N AND NE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY FAVOR OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER
TO THE FRONT. SEVERE CONVECTION NOT ANTICIPATED. WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY GENERALLY WEAK TODAY WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2C TO
-3C AND WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO
2 INCHES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH LOW
LCL AROUND 2000 FT. THINK HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING
POTENTIAL IS GREATEST RISK WITH AROUND 10KFT WARM CLOUD DEPTH
SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND STORM MOTIONS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS. TRAINING OF STORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN.
WPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE W
CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE POPS CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z FRIDAY.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WITH A WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS BLANKETING THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED COOLING
OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CEILING HEIGHTS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR
RANGE DURING THE 08Z-14Z TIME FRAME ALL TERMINALS.  LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.  AS AN 850MB LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
UPSTATE ON FRIDAY...THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO
SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 010252
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE
MOVED INTO THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS. WITH
PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FROM
THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. HAVE REMAINED WITH POPS OVERNIGHT 50 PERCENT FOR THOSE
AREAS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WITH
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH THROUGH 05Z AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z. EXPECT STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING BY 02/18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 010252
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE
MOVED INTO THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN NC...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD THE MIDLANDS. WITH
PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FROM
THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. HAVE REMAINED WITH POPS OVERNIGHT 50 PERCENT FOR THOSE
AREAS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WITH
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH THROUGH 05Z AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z. EXPECT STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING BY 02/18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 010018
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LANCASTER AND INTO NC. CAE WSR-
88D SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE PRODUCING
LIGHT RAINFALL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVES MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH AL/GA WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES TO INCREASE THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLIER RAINFALL
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WITH
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH THROUGH 05Z AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z. EXPECT STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING BY 02/18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 010018
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LANCASTER AND INTO NC. CAE WSR-
88D SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE PRODUCING
LIGHT RAINFALL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVES MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH AL/GA WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES TO INCREASE THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLIER RAINFALL
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WITH
THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES TONIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH THROUGH 05Z AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z. EXPECT STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING BY 02/18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 312140
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
540 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NEWBERRY THROUGH CHERAW AND MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 20 KNOTS.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THIS LINE WITH
MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AND A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS PWAT
VALUES REMAIN AT 2 INCHES OR GREATER AND A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312140
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
540 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NEWBERRY THROUGH CHERAW AND MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 20 KNOTS.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THIS LINE WITH
MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AND A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS PWAT
VALUES REMAIN AT 2 INCHES OR GREATER AND A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 312040
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
440 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...UP TO 1.8 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT INCREASING
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO MINUS 4C.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 312040
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
440 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...UP TO 1.8 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT INCREASING
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO MINUS 4C.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL/OGB...BUT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO AFFECT CAE/CUB CURRENTLY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AT
CAE/CUB. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT OTHER SITES SO
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. MOIST EAST FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 311800
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...UP TO 1.8 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT INCREASING
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO MINUS 4C.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COVERAGE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET
AS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PROBABILITY
FOR THUNDER IS LOW. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. MOIST EAST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND
ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 311800
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...UP TO 1.8 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT INCREASING
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO MINUS 4C.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COVERAGE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET
AS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PROBABILITY
FOR THUNDER IS LOW. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. MOIST EAST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND
ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 311538
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1138 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...AROUND 1.7 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT
INCREASING TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON THE EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. GIVEN
HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY. WILL STAY JUST
ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX
SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO
AROUND 2.00 INCHES. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE TEXT FOR FRIDAY
WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS
OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA.
GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIMITING VSBYS
IS POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN TAFS AND WILL AMEND WHEN
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SHOWERS LIMITING VSBYS/CIGS. MOST
MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 311538
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1138 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...AROUND 1.7 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT
INCREASING TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON THE EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. GIVEN
HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY. WILL STAY JUST
ABOVE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX
SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO
AROUND 2.00 INCHES. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE TEXT FOR FRIDAY
WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS
OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA.
GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIMITING VSBYS
IS POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN TAFS AND WILL AMEND WHEN
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SHOWERS LIMITING VSBYS/CIGS. MOST
MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 311042
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY UP ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE UPSTATE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY IN AN AREA ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER PORTION OF THE CWA. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE
THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE UPSTATE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE POPS RANGING
FROM CHANCES ACROSS THE CSRA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WILL
DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS FEATURE
EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP
MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING AT CAE/CUB/OBG.  SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO A
AGS/DNL AS REGIONAL RADAR NOW SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS MORNING...AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.  HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINING THIS MORNING IN SOME FORM...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
VCSH...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS...FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE A
POSSIBLE BREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT AGS/DNL BY 14Z.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WEAK ISENTROPIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MODELS
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
REINTRODUCE VCSH AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 17-19Z. THIS SHOULD BE DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE
SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FORMING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MOST MODELS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 311042
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
642 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY UP ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO THE UPSTATE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY IN AN AREA ALONG
THE SAVANNAH RIVER PORTION OF THE CWA. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE
THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE UPSTATE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE POPS RANGING
FROM CHANCES ACROSS THE CSRA TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY WILL
DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS FEATURE
EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW PRECIP
MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THIS MORNING AT CAE/CUB/OBG.  SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO A
AGS/DNL AS REGIONAL RADAR NOW SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CSRA THIS MORNING...AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.  HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINING THIS MORNING IN SOME FORM...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
VCSH...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS...FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE A
POSSIBLE BREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT AGS/DNL BY 14Z.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WEAK ISENTROPIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MODELS
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
REINTRODUCE VCSH AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 17-19Z. THIS SHOULD BE DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE
SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FORMING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MOST MODELS LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 310830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY
OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH
THIS FEATURE EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND
SLOW PRECIP MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH.  WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM.  WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL.  CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 310830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
430 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY
OF MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WV LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW
CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH
THIS FEATURE EWD AS IT WEAKENS AND THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...APPROACHING 2 INCHES. MODELS RUNS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MODEL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW RECENTLY AND WILL STAY JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW VALUES AND
SLOW PRECIP MOVEMENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE
HIGHEST ISENTROPIC LIFT THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST...CLOSER TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE
TEXT FOR FRIDAY WITH WIND FIELD WITH INCREASING SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS OF CLOUD COVER...HIGH PW VALUES AND
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS ARE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER
1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO
LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH.  WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM.  WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL.  CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 310537
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO VARY BETWEEN PARTY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH.  WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM.  WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL.  CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 310537
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. THESE
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO VARY BETWEEN PARTY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INHIBIT FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FORMING AT AGS/OGB IF CLOUDS THIN
ENOUGH.  WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH SITES FOR VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 4SM.  WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA-BREEZE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR MODEL.  CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT RAIN GROUP...BUT WILL GO WITH
VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 302337
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASING TREND AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ALL SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY 10 PM. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL
ALSO DECREASE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.


MID LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE REGION BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS. SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z. EAST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT.
PATCHY FOG MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY AT OGB AND AGS 09Z TO
13Z...CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR FOG AT OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OGB AND
AGS/DNL TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 302337
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASING TREND AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ALL SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY 10 PM. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL
ALSO DECREASE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.


MID LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE REGION BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS. SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z. EAST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT.
PATCHY FOG MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY AT OGB AND AGS 09Z TO
13Z...CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR FOG AT OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
CONTINUED EAST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...POSSIBLY IMPACTING OGB AND
AGS/DNL TERMINAL AREAS BEFORE 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 302258
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
658 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASING TREND AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ALL SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY 10 PM. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL
ALSO DECREASE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

CLOUD BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA COULD AFFECT
OGB/AGS/DNL THROUGH SUNSET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
MODEL INDICATE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT AGS/DNL AROUND 09Z. GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...DID NOT INDICATE IFR
CIGS...THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 302258
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
658 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASING TREND AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ALL SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY 10 PM. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL
ALSO DECREASE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSISTING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

CLOUD BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA COULD AFFECT
OGB/AGS/DNL THROUGH SUNSET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
MODEL INDICATE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT AGS/DNL AROUND 09Z. GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...DID NOT INDICATE IFR
CIGS...THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 301845
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
245 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE
MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE LIMITED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PWAT INCREASES TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.

A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THOUGH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGER WITH WEAK INSENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

CLOUD BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA COULD AFFECT
OGB/AGS/DNL THROUGH SUNSET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
MODEL INDICATE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT AGS/DNL AROUND 09Z. GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...DID NOT INDICATE IFR
CIGS...THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301845
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
245 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE
MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE LIMITED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PWAT INCREASES TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.

A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THOUGH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGER WITH WEAK INSENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THURSDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY PRECIP MAX SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. PWAT WILL RANGE FROM 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES THURSDAY THOROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.8 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. POPS SLOWLY DECREASE TO LOW CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

CLOUD BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA COULD AFFECT
OGB/AGS/DNL THROUGH SUNSET. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
MODEL INDICATE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT AGS/DNL AROUND 09Z. GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT...DID NOT INDICATE IFR
CIGS...THOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 301640
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301640
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1240 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 301639
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 301639
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
AROUND 90 SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 4000 FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 301145
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE PEE
DEE REGION SOUTHWEST TO NEAR COLUMBIA AND THEN TO THE AUGUSTA
AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATED SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER WITH A COOLER START TO THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT TONIGHT DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 6000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 301145
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE PEE
DEE REGION SOUTHWEST TO NEAR COLUMBIA AND THEN TO THE AUGUSTA
AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATED SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER WITH A COOLER START TO THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT TONIGHT DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTERED BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 6000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 300752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
352 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AND PROVIDING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE PEE
DEE REGION SOUTHWEST TO NEAR COLUMBIA AND THEN TO THE AUGUSTA
AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A VERY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MID LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING OTHER THAN JUST SOME CU WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER WITH A COOLER START TO THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT TONIGHT DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
8000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 300550
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
8000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









000
FXUS62 KCAE 300550
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
8000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...










000
FXUS62 KCAE 300250
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1050 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ENTER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING STEADILY THROUGH THE 70S WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT THIS TREND TO SLOW OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
8000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE EAST
COAST TROUGH.  WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 300250
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1050 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ENTER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FEW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING STEADILY THROUGH THE 70S WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT THIS TREND TO SLOW OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
8000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE EAST
COAST TROUGH.  WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 292327
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
727 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ENTER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A DIMINISHING TREND AS HEATING IS LOST. EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SUNSET AND WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXCELLENT. THIS WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
8000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE EAST
COAST TROUGH.  WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 292327
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
727 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ENTER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A DIMINISHING TREND AS HEATING IS LOST. EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SUNSET AND WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXCELLENT. THIS WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUED DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
8000-10000 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE EAST
COAST TROUGH.  WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 291851
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ENTER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND HAS USHERED IN DRIER AND MILDER AIR.
A DRY REINFORCING TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT NW THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT NORTH
TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE AT
TIMES. FEW TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 291851
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ENTER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND HAS USHERED IN DRIER AND MILDER AIR.
A DRY REINFORCING TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY BUT CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS WERE CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING ON FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT JUST OVER 2.0
INCHES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT NW THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT NORTH
TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE AT
TIMES. FEW TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 291657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1257 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ENTER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND HAS USHERED IN DRIER AND MILDER AIR.
A DRY REINFORCING TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL DIRECT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS...WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE
JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA
UNDER A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES POPS INCREASING TO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT NW THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT NORTH
TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE AT
TIMES. FEW TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 291657
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1257 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE REGION AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ENTER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND HAS USHERED IN DRIER AND MILDER AIR.
A DRY REINFORCING TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS WILL DIRECT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS...WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE
JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS WE ENTER INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD...WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA
UNDER A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ALONG WITH ALLOWING A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN AS WE ENTER INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES POPS INCREASING TO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT NW THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT NORTH
TONIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE AT
TIMES. FEW TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU NT/FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS DUE TO AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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