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000
FXUS62 KCAE 300603
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
203 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND ENHANCED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND
CENTRAL CSRA AND WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SOME SHOWERS
CONTINUE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS HAVE SHOWN A
GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND AND EXPECT ALL SHOWERS TO END OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS RECOVERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALREADY.
HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL AND HAVE
IMPACTED AGS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THOSE
SITES THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG WILL BE
THE NEXT CONCERN AND WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. WITH SHOWERS KEEPING AREAS MIXED BELIEVE FOG WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE MVFR. ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AS A WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300603
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
203 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND ENHANCED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW SHOWERS REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND
CENTRAL CSRA AND WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES SOME SHOWERS
CONTINUE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS HAVE SHOWN A
GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND AND EXPECT ALL SHOWERS TO END OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS RECOVERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALREADY.
HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN FOG.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL AND HAVE
IMPACTED AGS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THOSE
SITES THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG WILL BE
THE NEXT CONCERN AND WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. WITH SHOWERS KEEPING AREAS MIXED BELIEVE FOG WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL BE MVFR. ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AS A WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA AND DIMINISHED
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME CONVECTION SOUTH OF BURKE COUNTY AND NEAR THE
CHARLOTTE AREA. PWAT VALUES HAVE RISEN TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AS NOTED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. WILL HOLD ON TO A
SMALL POP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND DIMINISH THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS RECOVERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALREADY.
HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO FOG.

88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED WEST
OF THE CWA/TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD MORNING.
GUIDANCE SPLIT ON POTENTIAL FOR FOG WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR
TO IFR. HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT MVFR FOG AT
OGB/AGS/DNL. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE CSRA WHERE SHRA/TSRA MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE FIELD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 4 TO
6 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA AND DIMINISHED
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME CONVECTION SOUTH OF BURKE COUNTY AND NEAR THE
CHARLOTTE AREA. PWAT VALUES HAVE RISEN TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AS NOTED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. WILL HOLD ON TO A
SMALL POP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND DIMINISH THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS RECOVERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALREADY.
HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO FOG.

88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED WEST
OF THE CWA/TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD MORNING.
GUIDANCE SPLIT ON POTENTIAL FOR FOG WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR
TO IFR. HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT MVFR FOG AT
OGB/AGS/DNL. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE CSRA WHERE SHRA/TSRA MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE FIELD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 4 TO
6 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300131 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
931 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA AND DIMINISHED
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME CONVECTION SOUTH OF BURKE COUNTY AND NEAR THE
CHARLOTTE AREA. PWAT VALUES HAVE RISEN TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AS NOTED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. WILL HOLD ON TO A
SMALL POP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND DIMINISH THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS RECOVERED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALREADY.
HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO FOG.

88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED WEST
OF THE CWA/TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD MORNING.
GUIDANCE SPLIT ON POTENTIAL FOR FOG WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR
TO IFR. HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT MVFR FOG AT
OGB/AGS/DNL. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE CSRA WHERE SHRA/TSRA MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE FIELD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 4 TO
6 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 292339
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO FOG.

88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED WEST
OF THE CWA/TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD MORNING.
GUIDANCE SPLIT ON POTENTIAL FOR FOG WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR
TO IFR. HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT MVFR FOG AT
OGB/AGS/DNL. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE CSRA WHERE SHRA/TSRA MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE FIELD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 4 TO
6 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 292339
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF
RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO FOG.

88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED WEST
OF THE CWA/TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS SCT/BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD MORNING.
GUIDANCE SPLIT ON POTENTIAL FOR FOG WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR
TO IFR. HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT MVFR FOG AT
OGB/AGS/DNL. BEST CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE CSRA WHERE SHRA/TSRA MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...AREA WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE FIELD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM 4 TO
6 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 291823
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291823
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291823
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291809
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF
SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291152
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF
SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT HAS REMAINED OUT OF THE TAF SITES AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT HAS REMAINED OUT OF THE TAF SITES AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291048
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT HAS REMAINED OUT OF THE TAF SITES AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION...WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING HAVE INCLUDED
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z. SHOWERS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 290717
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
317 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 290717
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
317 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE.
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH REGION LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH LIFT APPEARS WEAK. WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS
WITH GFS/NAM FOCUS CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE PIEDMONT. ECMWF/SREF SUGGEST FRONT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSER TO THE MIDLANDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST AND LOWER POPS WEST
FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS APPEARS TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY
STALLING IT TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO
STALL THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE
ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290611
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECMWF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FROM 13Z ONWARD.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE CROSSING THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS NOTED AT A FEW SITES. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT
FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOURS. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 290236 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT AGS AND
OGB.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY AT AGS AND OGB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB BEFORE DAWN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
LOW CIGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES BY 14Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 20Z
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ACTUAL TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290236 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT AGS AND
OGB.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY AT AGS AND OGB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB BEFORE DAWN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
LOW CIGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES BY 14Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 20Z
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ACTUAL TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 290236 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT AGS AND
OGB.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY AT AGS AND OGB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB BEFORE DAWN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
LOW CIGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES BY 14Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 20Z
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ACTUAL TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290001 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING
NEARLY 2 INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES AND SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY AND MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD
HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290001 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING
NEARLY 2 INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES AND SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY AND MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD
HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENDS. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 282248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 282248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 282248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 282248
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FROM
THE CSRA TO THE CATAWBA REGION. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FROM
THE CSRA TO THE CATAWBA REGION. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 281812
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FROM
THE CSRA TO THE CATAWBA REGION. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 281702
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281702
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 281702
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281702
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 281515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 281515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281515
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE LARGEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR
LESS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE
TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IF CONVECTION INITIATES
IT IS MOSTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA.

EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN
RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 281047
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AT 08Z...BUT TREND DECREASING RAPIDLY GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER
RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS
REMAINING AROUND THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE MID CLOUDS TO DEPART
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION ATTM. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
414 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AT 08Z...BUT TREND DECREASING RAPIDLY GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER
RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS
CURRENTLY CROSSING AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH 09Z WITH FOG AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 280814
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
414 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AT 08Z...BUT TREND DECREASING RAPIDLY GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING OVER
RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT.
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS
CURRENTLY CROSSING AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH 09Z WITH FOG AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280626
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS
CURRENTLY CROSSING AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH 09Z WITH FOG AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 280626
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SHOWERS
CURRENTLY CROSSING AREA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR CAE/CUB/OGB THROUGH 09Z WITH FOG AT AGS/OGB BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280231 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS SHOWING A WEAK OVERNIGHT LOW-LEVEL JET.  MODELS
INDICATING SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY
SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
AGS/OGB. THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG
AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 280231 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
AND EASTWARD AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SC MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 925MB AND 850MB WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND COULD DRIFT INTO
OUR NORTHERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES SO WILL INCREASE POPS IN THAT AREA
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 06Z-07Z AND DIMINISH POPS AFTER THAT TIME.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION IS VERY
SLOW AND HAVE NOTICED SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE STORMS IN NC.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MAY FORM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
TIME SECTIONS SHOWING A WEAK OVERNIGHT LOW-LEVEL JET.  MODELS
INDICATING SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY
SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT
AGS/OGB. THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG
AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 272136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
536 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA ALONG A SEA BREEZE AND HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AS WE NEAR SUNRISE.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE INTO TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR AT
AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATING
SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY SHOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT AGS/OGB. THE
MODELS DO INDICATE AN  INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG
AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC




000
FXUS62 KCAE 272136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
536 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA ALONG A SEA BREEZE AND HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AS WE NEAR SUNRISE.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE INTO TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR AT
AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATING
SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY SHOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT AGS/OGB. THE
MODELS DO INDICATE AN  INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG
AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
AVIATION...BC





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH BEST LIFT REMAINING
ACROSS THE SEA-BREEZE...AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPSTATE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AS WE
NEAR SUNRISE. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATING
SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY SHOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT AGS/OGB.
THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN  INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT
FOG AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271752
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT
OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH BEST LIFT REMAINING
ACROSS THE SEA-BREEZE...AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPSTATE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AS WE
NEAR SUNRISE. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE E CONUS. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED
FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AS E CONUS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SOME...WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA.

FRI THRU MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO
OUR REGION AND STALL. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH INCREASING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATING
SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY SHOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT AGS/OGB.
THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN  INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT
FOG AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY
AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH BEST LIFT REMAINING
ACROSS THE SEA-BREEZE...AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPSTATE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AS WE
NEAR SUNRISE. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATING
SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY SHOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT AGS/OGB.
THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN  INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT
FOG AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY
AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH BEST LIFT REMAINING
ACROSS THE SEA-BREEZE...AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPSTATE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AS WE
NEAR SUNRISE. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATING
SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY SHOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT AGS/OGB.
THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN  INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT
FOG AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY
AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH BEST LIFT REMAINING
ACROSS THE SEA-BREEZE...AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPSTATE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AS WE
NEAR SUNRISE. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATING
SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY SHOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT AGS/OGB.
THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN  INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT
FOG AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271740
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY
AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH BEST LIFT REMAINING
ACROSS THE SEA-BREEZE...AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPSTATE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST AS WE
NEAR SUNRISE. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB FOR TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL KEEP THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATING
SOME POOLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...WHICH MAY SHOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE AT AGS/OGB.
THE MODELS DO INDICATE AN  INCREASE IN SOME OF THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO LESS DRY AIR ALOFT TO WORK WITH...WHICH MAY LIMIT
FOG AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STRATUS. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271502
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1102 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF ANY GOOD TRIGGERS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB/CUB.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SUNRISE HOURS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271502
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1102 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF ANY GOOD TRIGGERS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB/CUB.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SUNRISE HOURS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271502
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1102 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF ANY GOOD TRIGGERS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB/CUB.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SUNRISE HOURS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271502
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1102 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF ANY GOOD TRIGGERS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB/CUB.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SUNRISE HOURS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271145
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A DRY
FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF TRIGGER. AFTERNOON HIGHS
COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN SUNDAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE MID 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB/CUB.

AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS TO
BEGIN DISSIPATING BETWEEN 13Z-14Z.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE ATTM. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271145
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
745 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A DRY
FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF TRIGGER. AFTERNOON HIGHS
COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN SUNDAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE MID 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB/CUB.

AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS TO
BEGIN DISSIPATING BETWEEN 13Z-14Z.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE ATTM. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6
KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271045
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A DRY
FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF TRIGGER. AFTERNOON HIGHS
COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN SUNDAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE MID 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB/CUB.

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS
ALONG WITH SOME LIFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS TO
DISSIPATE BY 12Z AND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION VFR
CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS TUESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A DRY
FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF TRIGGER. AFTERNOON HIGHS
COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN SUNDAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE MID 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB/CUB.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT AGS/OGB.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AT AGS/OGB. HAVE REMAINED
WITH MVFR AT OGB AND IFR AT AGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271028
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A DRY
FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF TRIGGER. AFTERNOON HIGHS
COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN SUNDAY...WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE MID 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB/CUB.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT AGS/OGB.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AT AGS/OGB. HAVE REMAINED
WITH MVFR AT OGB AND IFR AT AGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 270803
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
403 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A
DRY FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF TRIGGER. AFTERNOON
HIGHS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN SUNDAY...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE MID 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT AGS/OGB.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AT AGS/OGB. HAVE REMAINED
WITH MVFR AT OGB AND IFR AT AGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 270803
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
403 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT
AND ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE INDICATED A
DRY FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN LACK OF TRIGGER. AFTERNOON
HIGHS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN SUNDAY...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE MID 90S. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING SOME ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY. ADDED
IN WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED...UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...THOUGH WILL
BUILD EAST SOME INTO OUR REGION WITH SOME SLIGHT UPPER HEIGHT
RISES EXPECTED FOR OUR FA WEDNESDAY AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MAY SLIP A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR N/NE FA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC. AS A
RESULT...GUIDANCE POPS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTH
AND WEST FA WED.

THU THRU SUN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO
SHIFT WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION...ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME..ACCEPTED BLEND OF LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...WITH POPS RISING TO GOOD CHANCE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY MORNING
MVFR/IFR AT AGS/OGB.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT AGS/OGB.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AT AGS/OGB. HAVE REMAINED
WITH MVFR AT OGB AND IFR AT AGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




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