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000
FXUS62 KCAE 300442
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
MODELS SHOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOULD SEE RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

MODELS SHOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT MODELS INDICATE IFR IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 6 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 300442
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
MODELS SHOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOULD SEE RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

MODELS SHOW FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT MODELS INDICATE IFR IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 6 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 292359
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLIER ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT EAST OF THE MIDLANDS WEAKENING AND
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS DID NOT PICK UP ON THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY BUT AS THE SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED
INLAND THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A FEW DEGREES. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT MODELS INDICATE IFR IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 6 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 292359
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLIER ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT EAST OF THE MIDLANDS WEAKENING AND
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS DID NOT PICK UP ON THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY BUT AS THE SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED
INLAND THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A FEW DEGREES. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT MODELS INDICATE IFR IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 6 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 292359
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLIER ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT EAST OF THE MIDLANDS WEAKENING AND
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS DID NOT PICK UP ON THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY BUT AS THE SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED
INLAND THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A FEW DEGREES. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT MODELS INDICATE IFR IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 6 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 292359
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
759 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLIER ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT EAST OF THE MIDLANDS WEAKENING AND
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY
MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS DID NOT PICK UP ON THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY BUT AS THE SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED
INLAND THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED A FEW DEGREES. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT MODELS INDICATE IFR IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 5 TO 6 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 292219
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLIER ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT EAST OF THE MIDLANDS WEAKENING AND
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
87




000
FXUS62 KCAE 292219
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
619 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLIER ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT EAST OF THE MIDLANDS WEAKENING AND
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
87





000
FXUS62 KCAE 292104
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
504 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS BERKELEY COUNTY SC...IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON INTO SOUTHERN
ORANGEBURG COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAP A BIT STRONGER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD
SLIGHT POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NAM MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 292104
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
504 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS BERKELEY COUNTY SC...IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON INTO SOUTHERN
ORANGEBURG COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAP A BIT STRONGER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD
SLIGHT POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NAM MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291838
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
238 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS BERKELEY COUNTY SC...IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON INTO SOUTHERN
ORANGEBURG COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAP A BIT STRONGER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD
SLIGHT POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

GOING FORECAST OF LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS GOOD. NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
87





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291838
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
238 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS BERKELEY COUNTY SC...IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON INTO SOUTHERN
ORANGEBURG COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAP A BIT STRONGER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD
SLIGHT POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

GOING FORECAST OF LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS GOOD. NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY...INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH THE LACK OF A
STRONG TRIGGER OR DIVERGENCE ALOFT EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
AMPLIFICATION BELIEVE THIS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND SLOWLY SHEAR
APART ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
87




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS BERKELY COUNTY SC...IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON INTO SOUTHERN
ORANGEBURGE COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAP A BIT STRONGER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD
SLIGHT POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

GOING FORECAST OF LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS GOOD. NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLTY AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
87





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS BERKELY COUNTY SC...IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON INTO SOUTHERN
ORANGEBURGE COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAP A BIT STRONGER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD
SLIGHT POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

GOING FORECAST OF LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS GOOD. NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLTY AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
87





000
FXUS62 KCAE 291757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS BERKELY COUNTY SC...IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON INTO SOUTHERN
ORANGEBURGE COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAP A BIT STRONGER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD
SLIGHT POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

GOING FORECAST OF LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS GOOD. NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLTY AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
87




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH WITH
A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS BERKELY COUNTY SC...IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CLARENDON INTO SOUTHERN
ORANGEBURGE COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAP A BIT STRONGER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD
SLIGHT POPS IN THIS AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE
OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

GOING FORECAST OF LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS GOOD. NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLTY AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT BY SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
87




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291402
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1002 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RISING
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN PWAT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS IN SE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BUT POPS LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
STRONGER CAP TODAY SO NOT CONFIDENT IN PRECIP DEVELOPING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S WHICH AGREE WITH MOS CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST...AND
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE APPROACHES
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
87




000
FXUS62 KCAE 291402
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1002 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RISING
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN PWAT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY HINTING AT A
FEW SHOWERS IN SE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BUT POPS LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
STRONGER CAP TODAY SO NOT CONFIDENT IN PRECIP DEVELOPING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S WHICH AGREE WITH MOS CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST...AND
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OGB AND POINTS EAST AS SEA BREEZE APPROACHES
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
87





000
FXUS62 KCAE 290810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RISING
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN PWAT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHICH AGREE WITH MOS
CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RISING
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN PWAT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHICH AGREE WITH MOS
CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 290810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RISING
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN PWAT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHICH AGREE WITH MOS
CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 290810
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
410 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. RISING
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN PWAT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHICH AGREE WITH MOS
CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS INDICATE THE
RETURN OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS
THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO
BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD
BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS
WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
NIGHTTIME LOWS HOLD IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290600
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC BUILDING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. IN ADDITION DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA/CSRA. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A TAD
COOLER OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS...LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING.

DESPITE PREMISE FOR LESS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR FA WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S...ABOUT 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 290600
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC BUILDING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. IN ADDITION DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA/CSRA. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A TAD
COOLER OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS...LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING.

DESPITE PREMISE FOR LESS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR FA WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S...ABOUT 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290600
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC BUILDING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. IN ADDITION DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA/CSRA. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A TAD
COOLER OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS...LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING.

DESPITE PREMISE FOR LESS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR FA WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S...ABOUT 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290600
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC BUILDING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. IN ADDITION DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA/CSRA. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A TAD
COOLER OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS...LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING.

DESPITE PREMISE FOR LESS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR FA WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S...ABOUT 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ONLY AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 290453
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC BUILDING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. IN ADDITION DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA/CSRA. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A TAD
COOLER OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS...LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DESPITE PREMISE FOR LESS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR FA WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S...ABOUT 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER OUR
FA TO ISOLATED AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 290453
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC BUILDING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. IN ADDITION DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA/CSRA. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A TAD
COOLER OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS...LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DESPITE PREMISE FOR LESS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR FA WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S...ABOUT 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER OUR
FA TO ISOLATED AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290453
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC BUILDING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. IN ADDITION DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA/CSRA. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A TAD
COOLER OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS...LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DESPITE PREMISE FOR LESS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR FA WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S...ABOUT 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER OUR
FA TO ISOLATED AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 290453
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC BUILDING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. IN ADDITION DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA/CSRA. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A TAD
COOLER OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS...LOWS MAINLY MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DESPITE PREMISE FOR LESS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR FA WITH CROSSOVER TEMPS/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S...ABOUT 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS
AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER OUR
FA TO ISOLATED AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 282253
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
653 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC BUILDING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST TODAY. IN ADDITION DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA/CSRA. CONVECTION LIMITED WITH FOCUS IN THE UPSTATE WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HIGHER/CONVERGENCE STRONGER. WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...MORE IN THE WEST
MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. MAY BE A TAD COOLER
TONIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS...MAINLY MID 60S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

LATEST RADAR INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA (FA).  WILL EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR FA TO
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.  DESPITE PREMISE FOR LESS MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER OUR FA WITH CROSSOVER
TEMPS/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...ABOUT 6 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG
THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR REMAINING IN
PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER OUR FA TO
ISOLATED AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. &&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 282253
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
653 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC BUILDING A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST TODAY. IN ADDITION DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA/CSRA. CONVECTION LIMITED WITH FOCUS IN THE UPSTATE WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HIGHER/CONVERGENCE STRONGER. WEAK
CONVECTION IN THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...MORE IN THE WEST
MIDLANDS/PIEDMONT DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. MAY BE A TAD COOLER
TONIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS...MAINLY MID 60S FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

LATEST RADAR INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA (FA).  WILL EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER OUR FA TO
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.  DESPITE PREMISE FOR LESS MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER OUR FA WITH CROSSOVER
TEMPS/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...ABOUT 6 DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG
THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS AT FOG PRONE AGS/OGB
POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE DRY AIR REMAINING IN
PLACE...REDUCING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER OUR FA TO
ISOLATED AT BEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. &&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281516
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1116 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF THE COAST. CAE WSR-
88D SHOWS NO RETURNS WITH AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR UPSTATE AND MOUNTAINS OF NC. CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH
ALL ACTIVITY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE
1.5 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER.
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOWER TODAY
SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES AROUND 4 KFT.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 281516
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1116 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF THE COAST. CAE WSR-
88D SHOWS NO RETURNS WITH AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR UPSTATE AND MOUNTAINS OF NC. CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING WITH
ALL ACTIVITY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE
1.5 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER.
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOWER TODAY
SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES AROUND 4 KFT.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281153
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE
1.5 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER.
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOWER TODAY
SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES AROUND 4 KFT.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 281153
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE
1.5 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER.
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOWER TODAY
SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES AROUND 4 KFT.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281153
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE
1.5 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER.
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOWER TODAY
SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES AROUND 4 KFT.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281153
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE
1.5 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER.
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOWER TODAY
SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS. EXPECT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES AROUND 4 KFT.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 6 KNOTS OR
LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 281031
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE
1.5 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER.
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.OP
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE...BUT TS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON DO
NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 281031
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE
1.5 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER.
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.OP
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE...BUT TS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON DO
NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 280821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
421 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE EARLY MORNING RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG
WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLAND WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE
1.5 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER.
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAFS SITES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR. ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVES EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT...FOG MORE LIKELY. ALSO THE FOG WILL BE MORE
LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY. WILL
EXPECT ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THIS MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE. VFR
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...BUT TS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT APPEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 280821
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
421 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE EARLY MORNING RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG
WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLAND WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES. A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE
1.5 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER.
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT OR
BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAFS SITES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR. ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVES EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT...FOG MORE LIKELY. ALSO THE FOG WILL BE MORE
LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY. WILL
EXPECT ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THIS MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE. VFR
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...BUT TS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT APPEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280816
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
416 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE EARLY MORNING RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG
OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLAND WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES.
A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE 1.5 TO 1.70
INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER. WENT WITH
PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RIDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT
OR BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...TO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAFS SITES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR. ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVES EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT...FOG MORE LIKELY. ALSO THE FOG WILL BE MORE
LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY. WILL
EXPECT ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THIS MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE. VFR
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...BUT TS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT APPEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280816
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
416 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE EARLY MORNING RADAR INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERED. PATCHY FOG
OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLAND WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES.
A MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWAT IN THE 1.5 TO 1.70
INCH RANGE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER. WENT WITH
PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. RIDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND PWAT AT
OR BELOW ONE INCH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...TO WILL HOLD SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF WOULD BE MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30-50
PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAFS SITES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR. ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVES EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT...FOG MORE LIKELY. ALSO THE FOG WILL BE MORE
LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY. WILL
EXPECT ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THIS MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE. VFR
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...BUT TS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT APPEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 280551
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CSRA...BUT SOME ACTIVITY
REMAINS AROUND ATLANTA TOWARDS THE ATHENS AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAFS SITES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR. ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVES EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT...FOG MORE LIKELY. ALSO THE FOG WILL BE MORE
LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY. WILL
EXPECT ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THIS MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE. VFR
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...BUT TS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT APPEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280551
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CSRA...BUT SOME ACTIVITY
REMAINS AROUND ATLANTA TOWARDS THE ATHENS AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAFS SITES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR. ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVES EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT...FOG MORE LIKELY. ALSO THE FOG WILL BE MORE
LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY. WILL
EXPECT ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THIS MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE. VFR
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE...BUT TS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT APPEAR HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
77





000
FXUS62 KCAE 280400
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1200 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH 2
AM. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD
SEE FOG DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS
CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAFS SITES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR. ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVES EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT...FOG MORE LIKELY. WILL EXPECT ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH DIURNAL HEATING
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE. VFR EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE...BUT TS
CHANCES THU AFTN DO NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 280400
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1200 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH 2
AM. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD
SEE FOG DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS
CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TAFS SITES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR. ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVES EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT...FOG MORE LIKELY. WILL EXPECT ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH DIURNAL HEATING
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE. VFR EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE...BUT TS
CHANCES THU AFTN DO NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 272309
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO
THE WEST MIDLANDS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THAT REGION.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS CONTINUES
TO BE HEAVY RAIN. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LATEST RADAR INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WILL EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WILL EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME
AREAS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR. ITEM OF UNCERTAINITY
INVOLVES EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT...FOG MORE LIKELY. WILL EXPECT ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH DIURNAL HEATING
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE. VFR EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE...BUT TS
CHANCES THU AFTN DO NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 272309
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO
THE WEST MIDLANDS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THAT REGION.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS CONTINUES
TO BE HEAVY RAIN. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LATEST RADAR INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WILL EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. WILL EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME
AREAS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR. ITEM OF UNCERTAINITY
INVOLVES EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER.
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT...FOG MORE LIKELY. WILL EXPECT ANY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT WITH DIURNAL HEATING
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE. VFR EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE...BUT TS
CHANCES THU AFTN DO NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 272253
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
653 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO
THE WEST MIDLANDS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THAT REGION.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS CONTINUES
TO BE HEAVY RAIN. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE TAF SITES WITH WSR-88D NETWORK
SHOWING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR OGB. WILL INCLUDE TSRA FOR OGB AND
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN
WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE SUNRISE HOURS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY
MID MORNING WITH CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 272253
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
653 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO
THE WEST MIDLANDS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THAT REGION.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS CONTINUES
TO BE HEAVY RAIN. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE TAF SITES WITH WSR-88D NETWORK
SHOWING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR OGB. WILL INCLUDE TSRA FOR OGB AND
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN
WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE SUNRISE HOURS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY
MID MORNING WITH CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 272253
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
653 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO
THE WEST MIDLANDS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THAT REGION.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS CONTINUES
TO BE HEAVY RAIN. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE TAF SITES WITH WSR-88D NETWORK
SHOWING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR OGB. WILL INCLUDE TSRA FOR OGB AND
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN
WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE SUNRISE HOURS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY
MID MORNING WITH CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 272253
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
653 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO
THE WEST MIDLANDS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THAT REGION.
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS CONTINUES
TO BE HEAVY RAIN. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE TAF SITES WITH WSR-88D NETWORK
SHOWING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR OGB. WILL INCLUDE TSRA FOR OGB AND
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN
WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE SUNRISE HOURS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY
MID MORNING WITH CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE COLUMBIA AREA. WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSISTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN
ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE TAF SITES WITH WSR-88D NETWORK
SHOWING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR OGB. WILL INCLUDE TSRA FOR OGB AND
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN
WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE SUNRISE HOURS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY
MID MORNING WITH CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE COLUMBIA AREA. WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSISTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN
ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST...WITH UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LOWER LEVELS...A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY 30-40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WEST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST EACH
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DURING THE LONGER TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES APPEAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE HANDLING
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
TENNESSEE RIVER REGIONS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND MORE
CUTOFF WITH THE LOW MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST AND DOES NOT CUT THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
DURING THE PERIOD AT THE SURFACE...MODELS TRY TO BRING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A
DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. WINDS WITH THE ECMWF
WOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY 30-50 PERCENT POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE TAF SITES WITH WSR-88D NETWORK
SHOWING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR OGB. WILL INCLUDE TSRA FOR OGB AND
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN
WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE SUNRISE HOURS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY
MID MORNING WITH CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271728
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE COLUMBIA AREA. WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSISTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN
ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW BUT DEEPER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE TAF SITES WITH WSR-88D NETWORK
SHOWING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR OGB. WILL INCLUDE TSRA FOR OGB AND
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN
WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE SUNRISE HOURS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY
MID MORNING WITH CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271728
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE COLUMBIA AREA. WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSISTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN
ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW BUT DEEPER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE TAF SITES WITH WSR-88D NETWORK
SHOWING MOST ACTIVITY NEAR OGB. WILL INCLUDE TSRA FOR OGB AND
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN
WITH VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE SUNRISE HOURS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY
MID MORNING WITH CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
5 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271034
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS OF
AROUND 40 PERCENT. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE SCATTERED COVERAGE
DISPLAYED ON THE ARW. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BECAUSE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THE NAM DOES LOWER SURFACE-BASED
LI/S TO AROUND -6 TODAY SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW BUT DEEPER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS OR SO WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 271034
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS OF
AROUND 40 PERCENT. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE SCATTERED COVERAGE
DISPLAYED ON THE ARW. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BECAUSE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THE NAM DOES LOWER SURFACE-BASED
LI/S TO AROUND -6 TODAY SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW BUT DEEPER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS OR SO WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271034
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS OF
AROUND 40 PERCENT. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE SCATTERED COVERAGE
DISPLAYED ON THE ARW. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BECAUSE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THE NAM DOES LOWER SURFACE-BASED
LI/S TO AROUND -6 TODAY SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW BUT DEEPER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS OR SO WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 271034
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS OF
AROUND 40 PERCENT. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE SCATTERED COVERAGE
DISPLAYED ON THE ARW. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BECAUSE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THE NAM DOES LOWER SURFACE-BASED
LI/S TO AROUND -6 TODAY SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW BUT DEEPER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS OR SO WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 270655
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS OF
AROUND 40 PERCENT. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE SCATTERED COVERAGE
DISPLAYED ON THE ARW. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BECAUSE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THE NAM DOES LOWER SURFACE-BASED
LI/S TO AROUND -6 TODAY SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW BUT DEEPER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE LIFR CIGS WOULD BE OGB. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING TO VFR BY NOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 270655
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS OF
AROUND 40 PERCENT. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE SCATTERED COVERAGE
DISPLAYED ON THE ARW. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BECAUSE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THE NAM DOES LOWER SURFACE-BASED
LI/S TO AROUND -6 TODAY SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW BUT DEEPER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE LIFR CIGS WOULD BE OGB. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING TO VFR BY NOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 270655
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS OF
AROUND 40 PERCENT. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE SCATTERED COVERAGE
DISPLAYED ON THE ARW. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BECAUSE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THE NAM DOES LOWER SURFACE-BASED
LI/S TO AROUND -6 TODAY SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW BUT DEEPER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE LIFR CIGS WOULD BE OGB. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING TO VFR BY NOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




000
FXUS62 KCAE 270655
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CIRCULATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PLUS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS POPS OF
AROUND 40 PERCENT. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE SCATTERED COVERAGE
DISPLAYED ON THE ARW. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BECAUSE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT THE NAM DOES LOWER SURFACE-BASED
LI/S TO AROUND -6 TODAY SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOIST ONSHORE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE.
LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC EARLY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. MOISTURE APPEARS
SHALLOW BUT DEEPER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE LIFR CIGS WOULD BE OGB. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
LATER THIS MORNING TO VFR BY NOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




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