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000
FXUS62 KCAE 061839
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELMARVA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BRIEF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE PEA-SIZE HAIL
IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE ATLANTIC BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN US. THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
AREA WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CUMULUS CONTINUING TO
VERTICALLY DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS ATTM. WITH CUMULUS SHOWING WELL DEFINED EDGES AND
CLOUD TOPS FROM RADAR PUSHING THE -20C LEVEL EXPECT SHOWER
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY 500 MB READINGS REMAIN AROUND -22C
ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.
ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
CSRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLUMBIA AREA. SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CSRA TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE PEE DEE
REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS LESS THAN OPTIMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL DIRECT A WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS DISPLAY A FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS DO DEPICT A BAND OF MOISTURE BRUSHING MAINLY
THE NORTH SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATED WITH
AN H85 WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOW AND ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST. THE MODELS
HAVE LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BUT INDICATE
EVEN LESS MOISTURE WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. IT SHOULD BE DRY.
IT SHOULD BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGING AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY SURFACE RIDGING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LIMITING MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IN A FLAT PATTERN. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MOS SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE MOS HAS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WITH
WITH A FEW JUST WEST OF CAE/CUB. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO EXPAND OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION FROM CAE/CUB
TO OGB AND NORTHWARD. HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AT CAE/CUB/OGB AS
SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINAL. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
SHOWERS DUE TO FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 7 KFT...HOWEVER POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. WITH SUNSET SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH WITH ACTIVITY ENDING BY LATE EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
23Z...THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND
15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM 16Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 061609
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1209 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELMARVA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BRIEF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE PEA SIZE HAIL
IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN US. THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER DELMARVA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING THE VERY COOL AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -23C AND FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 7 KFT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEA SIZED HAIL. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP FROM COLUMBIA NORTHWARD. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH SKIES RANGING FROM PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CSRA TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE PEE
DEE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS LESS THAN OPTIMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
AND SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SUPPORTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY
SUNDAY.

UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WESTERN
CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND
LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION MIDWEEK. A MORE
ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.

CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS SHOWERS WELL NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES WITH CUMULUS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB FROM 18-23Z. ANY POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL. WIND GUSTS THROUGH 23Z WILL BE UP TO 20
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 061609
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1209 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER DELMARVA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BRIEF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE PEA SIZE HAIL
IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN US. THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OVER CURRENTLY OVER DELMARVA WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING THE VERY COOL AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -23C AND FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 7 KFT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEA SIZED HAIL. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP FROM COLUMBIA NORTHWARD. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH SKIES RANGING FROM PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CSRA TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE PEE
DEE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS LESS THAN OPTIMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
AND SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SUPPORTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY
SUNDAY.

UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WESTERN
CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND
LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION MIDWEEK. A MORE
ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.

CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS SHOWERS WELL NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES WITH CUMULUS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS SO HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB FROM 18-23Z. ANY POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL. WIND GUSTS THROUGH 23Z WILL BE UP TO 20
KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 061325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
925 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA TODAY WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY
CAUSE BRIEF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL IN THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGING SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL WITH TEMPS AROUND MINUS 23C AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MODELS
INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICES OF MINUS 2C TO MINUS 4C. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LOW AND COOL POOL WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. KEPT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH AGREE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
AND SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SUPPORTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY
SUNDAY.

UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WESTERN
CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND
LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION MIDWEEK. A MORE
ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB FROM 18-23Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 15-20 KT AT TIMES
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 061325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
925 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA TODAY WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY
CAUSE BRIEF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL IN THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGING SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL WITH TEMPS AROUND MINUS 23C AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MODELS
INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICES OF MINUS 2C TO MINUS 4C. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LOW AND COOL POOL WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. KEPT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH AGREE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
AND SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SUPPORTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY
SUNDAY.

UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WESTERN
CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND
LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION MIDWEEK. A MORE
ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB FROM 18-23Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 15-20 KT AT TIMES
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 061020
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
620 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL WITH TEMPS AROUND MINUS 23C AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MODELS
INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICES OF MINUS 2C TO MINUS 4C. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LOW AND COOL POOL WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. KEPT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH AGREE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
AND SOME SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY
SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
KCAE/KCUB/KOGB FROM 18-23Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 15-20 KT AT TIMES
TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 060837
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
437 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL WITH TEMPS AROUND MINUS 23C AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MODELS
INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICES OF MINUS 2C TO MINUS 4C. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LOW AND COOL POOL WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. KEPT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH AGREE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
AND SOME SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY
SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT KCAE/KCUB/KOGB FROM
18-23Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL.
WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 15-20 KT AT TIMES TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 060746
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL WITH TEMPS AROUND MINUS 23C AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. MODELS
INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICES OF MINUS 2C TO MINUS 4C. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
THE UPPER LOW AND COOL POOL WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. KEPT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHICH AGREE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
AND SOME SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY
SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY.

VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW
COULD IMPACT THE COLUMBIA AREA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
09Z...HOWEVER ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT KCAE/KCUB/KOGB FROM 18-23Z...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 060536
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER...WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE NC COAST TONIGHT. THOUGH
INSTABILITY AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO
PROVIDE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY NE
FORECAST AREA BASED ON A PREPONDERANCE OF THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY LIFTING OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC BUT LINGERING 500MB COLD POOL AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOWER 50S BUT WILL WARM A
BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY.

VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW
COULD IMPACT THE COLUMBIA AREA TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
09Z...HOWEVER ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS...SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT KCAE/KCUB/KOGB FROM 18-23Z...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 060231
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1031 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER...WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE NC COAST TONIGHT. THOUGH
INSTABILITY AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO
PROVIDE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY NE
FORECAST AREA BASED ON A PREPONDERANCE OF THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY LIFTING OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC BUT LINGERING 500MB COLD POOL AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOWER 50S BUT WILL WARM A
BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CROSSING THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BUT REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. BROKEN STRATO-CU OR ALTO-CU OVERNIGHT AT TIMES
WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. COLD AIR ALOFT AGAIN FRIDAY AND EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AT CAE/CUB TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
LIMITED AND SHALLOW AND LOW THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 052328
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER...WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE NC COAST TONIGHT. THOUGH
INSTABILITY AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO LESSEN
LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MAINTAIN ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY NE FORECAST AREA BASED ON A
PREPONDERANCE OF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
ISOLATED THUNDER AND POSSIBLILTY OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH LESS THREAT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY LIFTING OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC BUT LINGERING 500MB COLD POOL AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOWER 50S BUT WILL WARM A
BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CROSSING THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BUT REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. BROKEN STRATO-CU OR ALTO-CU OVERNIGHT AT TIMES
WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. COLD AIR ALOFT AGAIN FRIDAY AND EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AT CAE/CUB TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
LIMITED AND SHALLOW AND LOW THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 052328
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER...WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE NC COAST TONIGHT. THOUGH
INSTABILITY AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO LESSEN
LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MAINTAIN ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY NE FORECAST AREA BASED ON A
PREPONDERANCE OF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
ISOLATED THUNDER AND POSSIBLILTY OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH LESS THREAT LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY LIFTING OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC BUT LINGERING 500MB COLD POOL AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOWER 50S BUT WILL WARM A
BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CROSSING THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BUT REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. BROKEN STRATO-CU OR ALTO-CU OVERNIGHT AT TIMES
WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. COLD AIR ALOFT AGAIN FRIDAY AND EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH SOME INSTABILITY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AT CAE/CUB TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
LIMITED AND SHALLOW AND LOW THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 051824
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
224 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO CROSS
THE REGION WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 6 KFT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL
EXISTS FROM THESE CELLS AND A COUPLE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
FROM NORTH OF THE CAE AREA THUS FAR WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TO AROUND
10 MPH OVERNIGHT. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
THE WINDS PERSISTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN OPTIMAL. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER
OUTLYING AREAS SEEING THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY LIFTING OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC BUT LINGERING 500MB COLD POOL AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOWER 50S BUT WILL WARM A
BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CROSSING THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE TAF SITES. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 6
KFT REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...HOWEVER THESE ARE
NOT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY GUSTY
WINDS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
EXITING THE REGION FRIDAY EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO AGAIN
DEVELOP WITH ANY SHOWERS CONTAINED TO THE CAE/CUB TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME GUSTY FROM 06/15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MP
NEAR TERM...MP
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...MP





000
FXUS62 KCAE 051824
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
224 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO CROSS
THE REGION WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 6 KFT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL
EXISTS FROM THESE CELLS AND A COUPLE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
FROM NORTH OF THE CAE AREA THUS FAR WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TO AROUND
10 MPH OVERNIGHT. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
THE WINDS PERSISTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN OPTIMAL. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER
OUTLYING AREAS SEEING THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY LIFTING OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NC BUT LINGERING 500MB COLD POOL AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND SOME
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOWER 50S BUT WILL WARM A
BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON SUNDAY FEATURES A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WEAKENS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MID WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CROSSING THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE TAF SITES. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 6
KFT REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...HOWEVER THESE ARE
NOT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY GUSTY
WINDS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
EXITING THE REGION FRIDAY EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO AGAIN
DEVELOP WITH ANY SHOWERS CONTAINED TO THE CAE/CUB TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME GUSTY FROM 06/15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MP
NEAR TERM...MP
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...MP





000
FXUS62 KCAE 051808
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
208 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO CROSS
THE REGION WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 6 KFT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL
EXISTS FROM THESE CELLS AND A COUPLE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
FROM NORTH OF THE CAE AREA THUS FAR WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TO AROUND
10 MPH OVERNIGHT. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
THE WINDS PERSISTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN OPTIMAL. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER
OUTLYING AREAS SEEING THE MID 40S.


A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
MIDLANDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. 0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME
VERY STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10C/KM
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6
INCHES...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO
PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
REPORTS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE.
POPS RANGE FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLAND AND CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS HEATING
DIMINISHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL WARRANT KEEPING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION AND MIDLANDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY
TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR...THUS ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SET UP A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CROSSING THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE TAF SITES. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 6
KFT REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...HOWEVER THESE ARE
NOT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY GUSTY
WINDS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
EXITING THE REGION FRIDAY EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO AGAIN
DEVELOP WITH ANY SHOWERS CONTAINED TO THE CAE/CUB TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME GUSTY FROM 06/15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 051808
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
208 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO CROSS
THE REGION WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 6 KFT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL
EXISTS FROM THESE CELLS AND A COUPLE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
FROM NORTH OF THE CAE AREA THUS FAR WITH SOME STRONGER CELLS
DEVELOPING AROUND AND SOUTH OF CAE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL
HAIL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TO AROUND
10 MPH OVERNIGHT. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
THE WINDS PERSISTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN OPTIMAL. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER
OUTLYING AREAS SEEING THE MID 40S.


A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
MIDLANDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. 0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME
VERY STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10C/KM
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6
INCHES...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO
PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
REPORTS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE.
POPS RANGE FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLAND AND CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS HEATING
DIMINISHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL WARRANT KEEPING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION AND MIDLANDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY
TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR...THUS ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SET UP A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CROSSING THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE TAF SITES. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 6
KFT REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...HOWEVER THESE ARE
NOT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AND ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY GUSTY
WINDS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
EXITING THE REGION FRIDAY EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO AGAIN
DEVELOP WITH ANY SHOWERS CONTAINED TO THE CAE/CUB TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME GUSTY FROM 06/15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 051021
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
621 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
WITH US TODAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
MIDLANDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. 0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME
VERY STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10C/KM
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6
INCHES...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO
PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
REPORTS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE.
POPS RANGE FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLAND AND CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS HEATING
DIMINISHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL WARRANT KEEPING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION AND MIDLANDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY
TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR...THUS ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SET UP A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS FROM
ABOUT 17-23Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED TO PEAK UPWARDS OF AROUND 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050709
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
309 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
WITH US TODAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES WERE FALLING ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE TREND FOR DECREASING
RAINFALL AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. 0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME
VERY STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10C/KM
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6
INCHES...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO
PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
REPORTS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE.
POPS RANGE FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLAND AND CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS
HEATING DIMINISHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.
COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL WARRANT KEEPING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION AND MIDLANDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY
TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR...THUS ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SET UP A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS FROM
ABOUT 17-23Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED TO PEAK UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050709
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
309 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
WITH US TODAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
UPSTATE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES WERE FALLING ACROSS THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE TREND FOR DECREASING
RAINFALL AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. 0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME
VERY STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10C/KM
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6
INCHES...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO
PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
REPORTS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE.
POPS RANGE FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLAND AND CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS
HEATING DIMINISHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.
COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL WARRANT KEEPING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION AND MIDLANDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY
TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR...THUS ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SET UP A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS FROM
ABOUT 17-23Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED TO PEAK UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050535
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPSTATE TO CENTRAL GA
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. ARRAY OF LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE IN INDICATING THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA... BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE IN ORDER ACROSS OUR NW
FA AROUND THROUGH 06Z. STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS FROM
ABOUT 17-23Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED TO PEAK UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050535
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPSTATE TO CENTRAL GA
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. ARRAY OF LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE IN INDICATING THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA... BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE IN ORDER ACROSS OUR NW
FA AROUND THROUGH 06Z. STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS FROM
ABOUT 17-23Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED TO PEAK UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 050355
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1155 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPSTATE TO CENTRAL GA
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. ARRAY OF LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE IN INDICATING THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA... BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE IN ORDER ACROSS OUR NW
FA AROUND THROUGH 06Z. STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AROUND 09Z.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT THE CAE/CUB TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
BROKEN STRATO-CUMULUS DECK EXPECTED AT TIMES ALTHOUGH VFR. A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GUSTY TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 042324
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
724 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY TO
OUR NW ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHIFTING TO THE SE. ARRAY OF
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE IN INDICATING THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA
(FA)...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE IN ORDER ACROSS OUR NW FA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AROUND 09Z.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT THE CAE/CUB TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
BROKEN STRATO-CUMULUS DECK EXPECTED AT TIMES ALTHOUGH VFR. A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GUSTY TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 042324
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
724 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY TO
OUR NW ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHIFTING TO THE SE. ARRAY OF
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE IN INDICATING THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA
(FA)...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE IN ORDER ACROSS OUR NW FA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AROUND 09Z.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT THE CAE/CUB TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
BROKEN STRATO-CUMULUS DECK EXPECTED AT TIMES ALTHOUGH VFR. A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY GUSTY TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 042214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY TO
OUR NW ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHIFTING TO THE SE. ARRAY OF
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE IN INDICATING THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA
(FA)...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE IN ORDER ACROSS OUR NW FA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 042214
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY TO
OUR NW ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/TN ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHIFTING TO THE SE. ARRAY OF
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE IN INDICATING THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA
(FA)...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE IN ORDER ACROSS OUR NW FA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041817
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MP
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...MP





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041817
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-9 C/KM WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES...IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL REPORTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND TAKE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.  THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN
NC/VA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FOR FRIDAY WHICH
WILL WARRANT KEEPING SOME POPS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
MIDLANDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND FURTHER
COOLING LIMITED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA MID
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BUT THEN WARM ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MP
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...MP





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041758
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041758
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEPARTING THE REGION ALLOWING A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL
PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THE CUMULUS AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL CROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS INCREASING AS THE TROUGHS
CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VERY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS
REMAINS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041604
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1204 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALREADY OVERTAKING THE REGION.
WITH THE DRIER AIR CLOUDS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED AND EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SKIES TEMPORARILY
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN TONIGHT
AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041604
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1204 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALREADY OVERTAKING THE REGION.
WITH THE DRIER AIR CLOUDS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED AND EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SKIES TEMPORARILY
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN TONIGHT
AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS. AN UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS CROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041033
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS
COOL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA COULD BRING BACK SOME CLOUDINESS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE COUNTERED
BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIVING A
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN A STABLE AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MOS
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING. VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT IN. A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH INCREASING
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN COUPLED FROM THE WEST DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 041033
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
633 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY MID-MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS
COOL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA COULD BRING BACK SOME CLOUDINESS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE COUNTERED
BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIVING A
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN A STABLE AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MOS
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING. VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT IN. A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH INCREASING
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN COUPLED FROM THE WEST DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040825
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
425 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS COOL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.


THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIVING
A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY. MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT KOGB THROUGH ABOUT
09-10Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OTHER TERMINALS
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOGB AND THE
AUGUSTA AREA TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040733
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
333 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS COOL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.


THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIVING
A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY. MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOGB AND THE AUGUSTA AREA
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040733
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
333 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS COOL INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST.


THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DRIVING
A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY. MOS GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS
ON THURSDAY AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A
HALF INCH. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION BENEATH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT. SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...COOL AIR
ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY...HAVE INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S...THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOGB AND THE AUGUSTA AREA
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040514
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. DRIER AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A
SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KOGB AND THE AUGUSTA AREA
TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040425
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1225 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. DRIER AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A
SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AT
LEAST THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW RISK.
SO VFR FORECAST...SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1026 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WATCH
EXPIRED AT 900 PM.

COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING SHALLOW THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AT
LEAST THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW RISK.
SO VFR FORECAST...SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040226
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1026 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WATCH
EXPIRED AT 900 PM.

COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING SHALLOW THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AT
LEAST THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW RISK.
SO VFR FORECAST...SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL REMOVE THE WEST MIDLANDS FROM THE WATCH AT
00Z...WHERE THREAT LOW. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE EAST AND STORMS FOCUSED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. CANT RULE OUT A
STORM EAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AT
LEAST THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW RISK.
SO VFR FORECAST...SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 040002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL REMOVE THE WEST MIDLANDS FROM THE WATCH AT
00Z...WHERE THREAT LOW. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE EAST AND STORMS FOCUSED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. CANT RULE OUT A
STORM EAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AT
LEAST THROUGH 04Z...SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
SHALLOW AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW RISK.
SO VFR FORECAST...SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 032356
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL REMOVE THE WEST MIDLANDS FROM THE WATCH AT
00Z...WHERE THREAT LOW. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE EAST AND STORMS FOCUSED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. CANT RULE OUT A
STORM EAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. FEW
SHOWERS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL WILL MOVE IN AROUND 18Z
WITH SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF CAE/CUB MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS OUT OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 032356
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
756 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT AT 23Z EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AREA...MOVING THROUGH CAE AROUND 06Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL REMOVE THE WEST MIDLANDS FROM THE WATCH AT
00Z...WHERE THREAT LOW. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE EAST AND STORMS FOCUSED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. CANT RULE OUT A
STORM EAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER BUT WITH MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW
THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST A LITTLE HIGH...SO CUT
BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. FEW
SHOWERS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL WILL MOVE IN AROUND 18Z
WITH SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF CAE/CUB MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS OUT OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCAE 031911
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
311 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY...LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. COORDINATION WITH
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS RESULTED IN ISSUING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140 VALID THROUGH 9PM. MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES APPROACHING THE AREA WITH
LOW CLOUDS HAVING MIXED OUT AND CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. CAE
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA WITH
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE A BIT
LESS TODAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED..WITH SECONDARY
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE 10 TO 11 KFT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCES LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOMEWHAT MORE
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND A HALF INCH AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 40S AND
50S WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY.

THIS CLOSED LOW WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8-9 C/KM...AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -24C SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF
INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL AROUND 0.60
INCHES AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER POTENT
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
PUSHING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.  POOLING MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT RAISES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE AN INCH AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DETERRING FACTOR FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MONDAY BUT
THEN REDEVELOPS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY NORTH
OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS...MAY
NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN
GRADUALLY MODERATE WARMER TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES AND EXPECT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z. FEW
SHOWERS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL WILL MOVE IN AROUND 18Z
WITH SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF CAE/CUB MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 1830 AND 19Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS OUT OF TAFS. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$





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