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000
FXUS62 KCAE 190708
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
308 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA...AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. HAVE
REMAINED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY DAYBREAK WITH
MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TODAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER
INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY TODAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED
FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG LIFT EXPECTED WITH
AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE
REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH ACROSS TENNESSEE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY ACROSS CSRA AND
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING...AND AS THIS PULLS AWAY GENERALLY EXPECT A DECREASE
IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. POPS DECREASE TO AROUND 20
PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL PRECIP COVERAGE GENERALLY
ONLY SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS ON
TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD TO THE REGION. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH GREATER MOISTURE BY SATURDAY. WILL MENTION CHANCE
RAIN NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST
GFS/ECMWF. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS ENOUGH TO MENTION PRECIP UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR AT ALL TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A S/W ENERGY AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
BY 09Z-11Z AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OVER THE
TERMINALS INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SOLAR INSOLATION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NEW MODEL RUNS AND COULD ADD THIS TO THE TAFS WITH LATER
UPDATES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 190708
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
308 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA...AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. HAVE
REMAINED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY DAYBREAK WITH
MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TODAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER
INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY TODAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOTED
FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG LIFT EXPECTED WITH
AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE
REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH ACROSS TENNESSEE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY ACROSS CSRA AND
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING...AND AS THIS PULLS AWAY GENERALLY EXPECT A DECREASE
IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. POPS DECREASE TO AROUND 20
PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL PRECIP COVERAGE GENERALLY
ONLY SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOW POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS ON
TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD TO THE REGION. UPPER FLOW
REMAINS ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH GREATER MOISTURE BY SATURDAY. WILL MENTION CHANCE
RAIN NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST
GFS/ECMWF. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS ENOUGH TO MENTION PRECIP UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR AT ALL TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A S/W ENERGY AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
BY 09Z-11Z AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OVER THE
TERMINALS INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SOLAR INSOLATION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NEW MODEL RUNS AND COULD ADD THIS TO THE TAFS WITH LATER
UPDATES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 190551
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE A BIT OF
HEATING HELP GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT
REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HAVE REMAINED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY
DAYBREAK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG
LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH
ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DESPITE EXPECTED WARM
ADVECTION.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...LATEST
MODEL MEAN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...-8 TO -10 SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX/ CAPE > 3000 J/JG
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG.
APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THINK MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL DUE TO VERY DRY AIR MID LEVELS AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. LOW POPS BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS
ON TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MENTION CHANCE RAIN NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS ENOUGH TO MENTION PRECIP UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR AT ALL TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A S/W ENERGY AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
BY 09Z-11Z AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OVER THE
TERMINALS INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SOLAR INSOLATION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NEW MODEL RUNS AND COULD ADD THIS TO THE TAFS WITH LATER
UPDATES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 190551
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE A BIT OF
HEATING HELP GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT
REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HAVE REMAINED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY
DAYBREAK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG
LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH
ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DESPITE EXPECTED WARM
ADVECTION.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...LATEST
MODEL MEAN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...-8 TO -10 SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX/ CAPE > 3000 J/JG
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG.
APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THINK MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL DUE TO VERY DRY AIR MID LEVELS AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. LOW POPS BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS
ON TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MENTION CHANCE RAIN NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS ENOUGH TO MENTION PRECIP UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR AT ALL TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A S/W ENERGY AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
BY 09Z-11Z AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OVER THE
TERMINALS INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SOLAR INSOLATION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NEW MODEL RUNS AND COULD ADD THIS TO THE TAFS WITH LATER
UPDATES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 190551
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE A BIT OF
HEATING HELP GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT
REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HAVE REMAINED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY
DAYBREAK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG
LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH
ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DESPITE EXPECTED WARM
ADVECTION.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...LATEST
MODEL MEAN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...-8 TO -10 SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX/ CAPE > 3000 J/JG
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG.
APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THINK MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL DUE TO VERY DRY AIR MID LEVELS AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. LOW POPS BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS
ON TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MENTION CHANCE RAIN NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS ENOUGH TO MENTION PRECIP UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR AT ALL TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A S/W ENERGY AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
BY 09Z-11Z AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OVER THE
TERMINALS INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SOLAR INSOLATION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NEW MODEL RUNS AND COULD ADD THIS TO THE TAFS WITH LATER
UPDATES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 190551
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
151 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE A BIT OF
HEATING HELP GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT
REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HAVE REMAINED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY
DAYBREAK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG
LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH
ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DESPITE EXPECTED WARM
ADVECTION.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...LATEST
MODEL MEAN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...-8 TO -10 SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX/ CAPE > 3000 J/JG
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG.
APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THINK MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL DUE TO VERY DRY AIR MID LEVELS AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. LOW POPS BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS
ON TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MENTION CHANCE RAIN NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS ENOUGH TO MENTION PRECIP UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR AT ALL TAF
SITES AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A S/W ENERGY AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
BY 09Z-11Z AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OVER THE
TERMINALS INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SOLAR INSOLATION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NEW MODEL RUNS AND COULD ADD THIS TO THE TAFS WITH LATER
UPDATES.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 190005
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
805 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE A BIT OF
HEATING HELP GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT
REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HAVE REMAINED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY
DAYBREAK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG
LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH
ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DESPITE EXPECTED WARM
ADVECTION.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...LATEST
MODEL MEAN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...-8 TO -10 SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX/ CAPE > 3000 J/JG
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG.
APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THINK MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL DUE TO VERY DRY AIR MID LEVELS AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. LOW POPS BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS
ON TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MENTION CHANCE RAIN NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS. WEDGE CONDITIONS AND LOW CIGS
HAVE BROKEN WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH OVERRUNNING TAKING PLACE. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO RETURN BY AROUND 04Z-05Z AND LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTH BY 09Z-11Z AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING
WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS INTO MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SOLAR INSOLATION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADDRESS WITH NEW
MODEL INFORMATION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS62 KCAE 190005
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
805 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE A BIT OF
HEATING HELP GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT
REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HAVE REMAINED WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS BY
DAYBREAK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG
LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH
ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DESPITE EXPECTED WARM
ADVECTION.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...LATEST
MODEL MEAN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...-8 TO -10 SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX/ CAPE > 3000 J/JG
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 80S. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG.
APPEARS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THINK MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL DUE TO VERY DRY AIR MID LEVELS AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. LOW POPS BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS
ON TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MENTION CHANCE RAIN NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS. WEDGE CONDITIONS AND LOW CIGS
HAVE BROKEN WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH OVERRUNNING TAKING PLACE. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO RETURN BY AROUND 04Z-05Z AND LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTH BY 09Z-11Z AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING
WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS OVER THE TERMINALS INTO MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SOLAR INSOLATION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO WILL NOT MENTION AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADDRESS WITH NEW
MODEL INFORMATION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KCAE 181830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NE FROM THE CSRA AND S
MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHIFT THIS AREA NE ACROSS
THE FA TODAY WHILE APPEARING TO WEAKEN IT SOME. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COULD BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT. AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG
LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH
ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DESPITE EXPECTED WARM
ADVECTION.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...LATEST
MODEL MEAN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...-8
TO -10 SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX/ CAPE > 3000 J/JG AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOW 80S. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR
AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG. APPEARS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. THINK MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DUE TO
VERY DRY AIR MID LEVELS AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. LOW
POPS BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MENTION CHANCE RAIN NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN RECENT WET CONDITIONS/PATTERN AND EXPECTED MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING EARLY THIS WEEK.



.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY. IN
THE NEAR TERM...AREA OF SHOWERS JUST NE OF AGS/DNL MOVING SLOWLY NE
TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS...WHILE APPEARING TO DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE. WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.
OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS...WITH HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING SE AND
INCREASING...WILL PROMOTE LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS. EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NT. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NE FROM THE CSRA AND S
MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHIFT THIS AREA NE ACROSS
THE FA TODAY WHILE APPEARING TO WEAKEN IT SOME. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COULD BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT. AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG
LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH
ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DESPITE EXPECTED WARM
ADVECTION.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...LATEST
MODEL MEAN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...-8
TO -10 SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX/ CAPE > 3000 J/JG AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOW 80S. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR
AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG. APPEARS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. THINK MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DUE TO
VERY DRY AIR MID LEVELS AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. LOW
POPS BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MENTION CHANCE RAIN NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN RECENT WET CONDITIONS/PATTERN AND EXPECTED MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING EARLY THIS WEEK.



.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY. IN
THE NEAR TERM...AREA OF SHOWERS JUST NE OF AGS/DNL MOVING SLOWLY NE
TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS...WHILE APPEARING TO DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE. WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.
OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS...WITH HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING SE AND
INCREASING...WILL PROMOTE LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS. EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NT. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NE FROM THE CSRA AND S
MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHIFT THIS AREA NE ACROSS
THE FA TODAY WHILE APPEARING TO WEAKEN IT SOME. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COULD BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT. AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG
LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH
ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DESPITE EXPECTED WARM
ADVECTION.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...LATEST
MODEL MEAN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...-8
TO -10 SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX/ CAPE > 3000 J/JG AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOW 80S. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR
AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG. APPEARS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. THINK MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DUE TO
VERY DRY AIR MID LEVELS AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. LOW
POPS BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MENTION CHANCE RAIN NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN RECENT WET CONDITIONS/PATTERN AND EXPECTED MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING EARLY THIS WEEK.



.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY. IN
THE NEAR TERM...AREA OF SHOWERS JUST NE OF AGS/DNL MOVING SLOWLY NE
TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS...WHILE APPEARING TO DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE. WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.
OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS...WITH HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING SE AND
INCREASING...WILL PROMOTE LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS. EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NT. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181830
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NE FROM THE CSRA AND S
MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHIFT THIS AREA NE ACROSS
THE FA TODAY WHILE APPEARING TO WEAKEN IT SOME. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COULD BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT. AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER INDIANA LATE IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM THE CSRA NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. STRONG
LIFT EXPECTED WITH AREA UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION 250 MB JET FROM GULF COAST NORTH
ACROSS TENNESSEE. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED EARLY AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS AIR MASS BECOMES WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CSRA/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DESPITE EXPECTED WARM
ADVECTION.


A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...LATEST
MODEL MEAN SUGGESTS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MIDLANDS/CSRA
AROUND 03Z-05Z TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...-8
TO -10 SFC BASED LIFTED INDEX/ CAPE > 3000 J/JG AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE LOW 80S. MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR
AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG. APPEARS THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. THINK MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DUE TO
VERY DRY AIR MID LEVELS AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. LOW
POPS BY MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MEAN APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND MORE LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL MENTION CHANCE RAIN NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN RECENT WET CONDITIONS/PATTERN AND EXPECTED MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING EARLY THIS WEEK.



.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY. IN
THE NEAR TERM...AREA OF SHOWERS JUST NE OF AGS/DNL MOVING SLOWLY NE
TOWARDS THE OTHER TERMINALS...WHILE APPEARING TO DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE. WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.
OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS...WITH HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING SE AND
INCREASING...WILL PROMOTE LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS. EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NT. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181543
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1143 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPED THE POPS TODAY BASED ON
PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTING NE FROM THE CSRA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SHIFT THIS AREA NE ACROSS THE FA TODAY WHILE APPERARING TO WEAKEN
IT SOME. WILL EXPECT WEDGE TO TRY TO SLOWLY ERODE TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH DIURNAL HEATING LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY. WILL EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN CIGS AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS DURING THE DAY  LATER
TODAY AS WEDGE TRIES TO SLOWLY ERODE. MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS
AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR AGS/DNL MOVIGN NE TOWARDS THE OTHER
TERMINALS. WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUP. OTHERWISE...WILL
EXPECTED ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
AND SE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE LOWER CIGS AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS. EXPECTED RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NT. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181543
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1143 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPED THE POPS TODAY BASED ON
PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTING NE FROM THE CSRA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SHIFT THIS AREA NE ACROSS THE FA TODAY WHILE APPERARING TO WEAKEN
IT SOME. WILL EXPECT WEDGE TO TRY TO SLOWLY ERODE TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH DIURNAL HEATING LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY. WILL EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN CIGS AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS DURING THE DAY  LATER
TODAY AS WEDGE TRIES TO SLOWLY ERODE. MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS
AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR AGS/DNL MOVIGN NE TOWARDS THE OTHER
TERMINALS. WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUP. OTHERWISE...WILL
EXPECTED ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
AND SE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE LOWER CIGS AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS. EXPECTED RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NT. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
921 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LARGER AREA OF RAIN HAS PUSHED
TO OUR EAST. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED NEAR
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE CSRA INTO
CENTRAL GA. WILL EXPECT WEDGE TO TRY TO SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
THE CSRA LATER THIS MORNING WHILE IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST...THEN
INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK BUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK.
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY LATER TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH MAINLY IFR TO
MVFR CIGS...AND MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. WILL EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CIGS
AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS LATER TODAY AS WEDGE TRIES TO
SLOWLY ERODE. IN THE NEAR TERM...RADAR INDICATES RAIN NEAR
AGS/DNL...AND WILL HANDLE WITH NEAR TERM TEMPO GROUP.
OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND SE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE LOWER CIGS AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS. EXPECTED RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NT. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
921 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LARGER AREA OF RAIN HAS PUSHED
TO OUR EAST. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED NEAR
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE CSRA INTO
CENTRAL GA. WILL EXPECT WEDGE TO TRY TO SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
THE CSRA LATER THIS MORNING WHILE IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST...THEN
INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK BUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK.
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY LATER TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH MAINLY IFR TO
MVFR CIGS...AND MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. WILL EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CIGS
AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS LATER TODAY AS WEDGE TRIES TO
SLOWLY ERODE. IN THE NEAR TERM...RADAR INDICATES RAIN NEAR
AGS/DNL...AND WILL HANDLE WITH NEAR TERM TEMPO GROUP.
OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND SE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE LOWER CIGS AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS. EXPECTED RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NT. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
921 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LARGER AREA OF RAIN HAS PUSHED
TO OUR EAST. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED NEAR
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE CSRA INTO
CENTRAL GA. WILL EXPECT WEDGE TO TRY TO SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
THE CSRA LATER THIS MORNING WHILE IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST...THEN
INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK BUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK.
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY LATER TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH MAINLY IFR TO
MVFR CIGS...AND MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. WILL EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CIGS
AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS LATER TODAY AS WEDGE TRIES TO
SLOWLY ERODE. IN THE NEAR TERM...RADAR INDICATES RAIN NEAR
AGS/DNL...AND WILL HANDLE WITH NEAR TERM TEMPO GROUP.
OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND SE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE LOWER CIGS AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS. EXPECTED RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NT. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181321
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
921 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LARGER AREA OF RAIN HAS PUSHED
TO OUR EAST. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED NEAR
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE CSRA INTO
CENTRAL GA. WILL EXPECT WEDGE TO TRY TO SLOWLY ERODE TODAY. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR
THE CSRA LATER THIS MORNING WHILE IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST...THEN
INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK BUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK.
ANY RAIN ACTIVITY LATER TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS WOULD BE BRIEF AND
LIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT. PLUME OF HIGH
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER APPEARS WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH MAINLY IFR TO
MVFR CIGS...AND MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. WILL EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CIGS
AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS LATER TODAY AS WEDGE TRIES TO
SLOWLY ERODE. IN THE NEAR TERM...RADAR INDICATES RAIN NEAR
AGS/DNL...AND WILL HANDLE WITH NEAR TERM TEMPO GROUP.
OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AND SE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE LOWER CIGS AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS. EXPECTED RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AS WELL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NT. A FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY SEVERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181037
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH
MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
AFFECTING THE REGION. CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED OVERNIGHT BUT
BELIEVE MVFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPO IFR. HAVE ALSO SHOWN MVFR VISIBILITIES IN TEMPO GROUP THROUGH
15Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR
CEILINGS OR LOWER IN THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWER
CEILINGS HANGING AROUND HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS RETURNING
BY 08/09Z. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 181037
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH
MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
AFFECTING THE REGION. CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED OVERNIGHT BUT
BELIEVE MVFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPO IFR. HAVE ALSO SHOWN MVFR VISIBILITIES IN TEMPO GROUP THROUGH
15Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR
CEILINGS OR LOWER IN THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWER
CEILINGS HANGING AROUND HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS RETURNING
BY 08/09Z. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 181037
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH
MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
AFFECTING THE REGION. CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED OVERNIGHT BUT
BELIEVE MVFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPO IFR. HAVE ALSO SHOWN MVFR VISIBILITIES IN TEMPO GROUP THROUGH
15Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR
CEILINGS OR LOWER IN THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWER
CEILINGS HANGING AROUND HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS RETURNING
BY 08/09Z. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
341 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH
MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST OF CAE/CUB. CEILINGS REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS
CURRENTLY BUT BELIEVE DETERIORATION TO IFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS IN THE UPSTATE SHOWING IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE TAF SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY
RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGHOUT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
341 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH
MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST OF CAE/CUB. CEILINGS REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS
CURRENTLY BUT BELIEVE DETERIORATION TO IFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS IN THE UPSTATE SHOWING IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE TAF SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY
RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGHOUT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KCAE 180741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
341 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH
MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICTING THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER. EXPECTING
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS ALOFT...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN...ALONG WITH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL KEEP THE POPS
LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST OF CAE/CUB. CEILINGS REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS
CURRENTLY BUT BELIEVE DETERIORATION TO IFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS IN THE UPSTATE SHOWING IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE TAF SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY
RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGHOUT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180651
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH
MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US
OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST OF CAE/CUB. CEILINGS REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS
CURRENTLY BUT BELIEVE DETERIORATION TO IFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS IN THE UPSTATE SHOWING IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE TAF SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY
RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGHOUT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180651
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH
MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US
OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST OF CAE/CUB. CEILINGS REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS
CURRENTLY BUT BELIEVE DETERIORATION TO IFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS IN THE UPSTATE SHOWING IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE TAF SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY
RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGHOUT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 180651
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH
MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US
OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST OF CAE/CUB. CEILINGS REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS
CURRENTLY BUT BELIEVE DETERIORATION TO IFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS IN THE UPSTATE SHOWING IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE TAF SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY
RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGHOUT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180651
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 06Z SHOWS
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO REMAIN THROUGH
MORNING AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US
OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST OF CAE/CUB. CEILINGS REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS
CURRENTLY BUT BELIEVE DETERIORATION TO IFR WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS IN THE UPSTATE SHOWING IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE TAF SITES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS MAY
RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LEANED TOWARD THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGHOUT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KCAE 180222
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1022 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SC COAST. AN LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN GA TO CENTRAL SC. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO
REMAIN OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ANTICIPATED.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER AL. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP LIKELY OR GREATER POPS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 06Z...WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. AFTER 06Z...MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RH
HIGH SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTO
LOWER TO MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AND FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AS
CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
AL/GA. MODEL GUIDANCE AND TIME HEIGHT FORECASTS AND HI RES MODEL
DATA INDICATING THAT THIS PERIOD OF VFR CIGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND CIGS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO IFR BY 04Z ALL TERMINALS WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND LIGHT RAIN FALLING. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND EXPECT
CIGS TO FALL INTO LIFR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AFTER 08Z-09Z.
VSBYS ARE MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT
FORECAST. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 180222
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1022 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SC COAST. AN LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN GA TO CENTRAL SC. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO
REMAIN OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ANTICIPATED.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER AL. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP LIKELY OR GREATER POPS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 06Z...WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. AFTER 06Z...MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RH
HIGH SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTO
LOWER TO MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AND FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AS
CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
AL/GA. MODEL GUIDANCE AND TIME HEIGHT FORECASTS AND HI RES MODEL
DATA INDICATING THAT THIS PERIOD OF VFR CIGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND CIGS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO IFR BY 04Z ALL TERMINALS WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND LIGHT RAIN FALLING. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND EXPECT
CIGS TO FALL INTO LIFR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AFTER 08Z-09Z.
VSBYS ARE MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT
FORECAST. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 180222
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1022 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SC COAST. AN LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN GA TO CENTRAL SC. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO
REMAIN OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ANTICIPATED.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER AL. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL KEEP LIKELY OR GREATER POPS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 06Z...WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. AFTER 06Z...MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RH
HIGH SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTO
LOWER TO MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AND FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AS
CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
AL/GA. MODEL GUIDANCE AND TIME HEIGHT FORECASTS AND HI RES MODEL
DATA INDICATING THAT THIS PERIOD OF VFR CIGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND CIGS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO IFR BY 04Z ALL TERMINALS WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND LIGHT RAIN FALLING. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND EXPECT
CIGS TO FALL INTO LIFR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AFTER 08Z-09Z.
VSBYS ARE MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT
FORECAST. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 172336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SC COAST. AN LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN AL TO CENTRAL SC. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO
REMAIN OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ANTICIPATED.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING INTO AL...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
FARTHER TO THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF GA/AL
TRACKING NE. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG
DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RH
HIGH SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTO
LOWER TO MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AND FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AS
CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
AL/GA. MODEL GUIDANCE AND TIME HEIGHT FORECASTS AND HI RES MODEL
DATA INDICATING THAT THIS PERIOD OF VFR CIGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND CIGS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO IFR BY 04Z ALL TERMINALS WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND LIGHT RAIN FALLING. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND EXPECT
CIGS TO FALL INTO LIFR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AFTER 08Z-09Z.
VSBYS ARE MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT
FORECAST. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 172336
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SC COAST. AN LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN AL TO CENTRAL SC. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO
REMAIN OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ANTICIPATED.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING INTO AL...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
FARTHER TO THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF GA/AL
TRACKING NE. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG
DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RH
HIGH SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTO
LOWER TO MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AND FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AS
CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
AL/GA. MODEL GUIDANCE AND TIME HEIGHT FORECASTS AND HI RES MODEL
DATA INDICATING THAT THIS PERIOD OF VFR CIGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND CIGS WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO IFR BY 04Z ALL TERMINALS WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND LIGHT RAIN FALLING. LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND EXPECT
CIGS TO FALL INTO LIFR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AFTER 08Z-09Z.
VSBYS ARE MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT
FORECAST. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 172252
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
652 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SC COAST. AN LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN AL TO CENTRAL SC. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO
REMAIN OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ANTICIPATED.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING INTO AL...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
FARTHER TO THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF GA/AL
TRACKING NE. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG
DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RH
HIGH SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTO
LOWER TO MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AND FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS IN PLACE...BUT
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS AND EXPECT SOME
CONTINUED GRADUAL CIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY. INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA AT ALL TERMINALS. WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP WITH LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
WILL INDICATE RETURN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON EXTENT OF FOG/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER. CIGS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 172252
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
652 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SC COAST. AN LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN AL TO CENTRAL SC. EXPECT THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WEDGE TO
REMAIN OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ANTICIPATED.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING INTO AL...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE
FARTHER TO THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF GA/AL
TRACKING NE. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG
DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RH
HIGH SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTO
LOWER TO MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AND FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS IN PLACE...BUT
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS AND EXPECT SOME
CONTINUED GRADUAL CIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY. INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA AT ALL TERMINALS. WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP WITH LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
WILL INDICATE RETURN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE
ON EXTENT OF FOG/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER. CIGS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW BREAKS ACROSS SOME
AREAS. WILL EXPECT THE WEDGE TO VERY SLOWLY TRY TO ERODE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY SOME.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING NE INTO MS...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS
OF GA/ALA TRACKING NE. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. GENERAL CONSENSUS IN
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL
LIKELY STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME RAINFALL.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RH
HIGH SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTO
LOWER TO MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AND FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS IN PLACE...BUT
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS AND EXPECT SOME
CONTINUED GRADUAL CIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
ENERGY. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA AT ALL TERMINALS. WEDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP WITH LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE RETURN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER. CIGS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW BREAKS ACROSS SOME
AREAS. WILL EXPECT THE WEDGE TO VERY SLOWLY TRY TO ERODE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY SOME.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING NE INTO MS...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS
OF GA/ALA TRACKING NE. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. GENERAL CONSENSUS IN
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL
LIKELY STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME RAINFALL.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RH
HIGH SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTO
LOWER TO MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AND FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS IN PLACE...BUT
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS AND EXPECT SOME
CONTINUED GRADUAL CIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
ENERGY. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA AT ALL TERMINALS. WEDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP WITH LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE RETURN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER. CIGS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW BREAKS ACROSS SOME
AREAS. WILL EXPECT THE WEDGE TO VERY SLOWLY TRY TO ERODE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY SOME.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING NE INTO MS...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS
OF GA/ALA TRACKING NE. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. GENERAL CONSENSUS IN
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL
LIKELY STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME RAINFALL.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RH
HIGH SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTO
LOWER TO MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AND FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS IN PLACE...BUT
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS AND EXPECT SOME
CONTINUED GRADUAL CIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
ENERGY. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA AT ALL TERMINALS. WEDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP WITH LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE RETURN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER. CIGS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171805
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
205 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW BREAKS ACROSS SOME
AREAS. WILL EXPECT THE WEDGE TO VERY SLOWLY TRY TO ERODE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY SOME.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING NE INTO MS...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS
OF GA/ALA TRACKING NE. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. GENERAL CONSENSUS IN
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL
LIKELY STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME RAINFALL.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT
AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE WEDGE. MODELS KEEP LOW LEVEL RH
HIGH SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
MORNING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WITH SATURDAY MAX TEMPS AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST INTO
LOWER TO MID 70S.

MODELS ARE AND FASTER MOVING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN US OPENS AND MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. HAVE MAX TEMPS UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH.



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT POSSIBLY A LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WHICH IS AN MORE UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GIVEN AN UNCERTAIN ZONAL PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS IN PLACE...BUT
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS AND EXPECT SOME
CONTINUED GRADUAL CIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
ENERGY. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA AT ALL TERMINALS. WEDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP WITH LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE RETURN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER. CIGS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171714
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY.
EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MAY
OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY BUT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IF
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW BREAKS ACROSS SOME
AREAS. WILL EXPECT THE WEDGE TO VERY SLOWLY TRY TO ERODE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY SOME.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING NE INTO MS...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS
OF GA/ALA TRACKING NE. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. GENERAL CONSENSUS IN
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL
LIKELY STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME RAINFALL.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
OPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...NUDGING A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY APPEARS
WEAK SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS SOUTH. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND RIDGE DOWN THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSTATE WITH AROUND 1 INCH APPEARING LIKELY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. PAST SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL SO HAVE BLENDED
IN LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS IN PLACE...BUT
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS AND EXPECT SOME
CONTINUED GRADUAL CIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
ENERGY. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA AT ALL TERMINALS. WEDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP WITH LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE RETURN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER. CIGS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171714
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY.
EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MAY
OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY BUT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IF
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW BREAKS ACROSS SOME
AREAS. WILL EXPECT THE WEDGE TO VERY SLOWLY TRY TO ERODE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY SOME.
MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING NE INTO MS...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS
OF GA/ALA TRACKING NE. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. GENERAL CONSENSUS IN
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL
LIKELY STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME RAINFALL.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
OPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...NUDGING A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY APPEARS
WEAK SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS SOUTH. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND RIDGE DOWN THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSTATE WITH AROUND 1 INCH APPEARING LIKELY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. PAST SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL SO HAVE BLENDED
IN LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS IN PLACE...BUT
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS AND EXPECT SOME
CONTINUED GRADUAL CIG IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM.  SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
ENERGY. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA AT ALL TERMINALS. WEDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP WITH LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE RETURN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER. CIGS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE SATURDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171547
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1147 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY.
EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MAY
OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY BUT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IF
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL EXPECT THE WEDGE TO VERY SLOWLY TRY TO ERODE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY SOME. MAIN ISSUE
IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER SHORT
WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NE
INTO MS...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE FARTHER TO
THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF GA/ALA TRACKING
NE. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST
WEST OF THE AUGUSTA AREA. THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
EXISTS...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE FA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH RAINFALL.  LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
OPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...NUDGING A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY APPEARS
WEAK SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS SOUTH. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND RIDGE DOWN THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSTATE WITH AROUND 1 INCH APPEARING LIKELY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. PAST SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL SO HAVE BLENDED
IN LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS IN PLACE. LIFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE IMPROVED TO IFR. WILL EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO LOW END MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA
AT ALL TERMINALS. WEDGE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP WITH
LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE RETURN TO IFR CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...AND POSSIBLY FOG...SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171547
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1147 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY.
EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MAY
OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY BUT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IF
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL EXPECT THE WEDGE TO VERY SLOWLY TRY TO ERODE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY SOME. MAIN ISSUE
IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. APPEARANCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER SHORT
WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NE
INTO MS...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE FARTHER TO
THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF GA/ALA TRACKING
NE. LATEST RADAR INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST
WEST OF THE AUGUSTA AREA. THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
EXISTS...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE FA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH RAINFALL.  LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
OPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...NUDGING A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY APPEARS
WEAK SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS SOUTH. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND RIDGE DOWN THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSTATE WITH AROUND 1 INCH APPEARING LIKELY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. PAST SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL SO HAVE BLENDED
IN LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS IN PLACE. LIFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE IMPROVED TO IFR. WILL EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO LOW END MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA
AT ALL TERMINALS. WEDGE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN/REDEVELOP WITH
LOWERING CIGS TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE RETURN TO IFR CIGS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG/VSBYS DUE TO PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...AND POSSIBLY FOG...SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/SUN NT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
938 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR
EAST MONDAY BUT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IF FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATE DIMINISHED ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY WITH THE
WEDGE PATTERN DISSIPATING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW
THE GREATER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AFFECTING
THE SOUTH PART TODAY. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED
SHOWER COVERAGE. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK. THE MODELS ALSO
INDICATE WEAK SHEAR. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ISOLATED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TODAY BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DISSIPATING
WEDGE PATTERN. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY
SUPPORTING THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THERE MAY BE AREAS
OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS
THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WERE CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
OPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...NUDGING A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY APPEARS
WEAK SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS SOUTH. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND RIDGE DOWN THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSTATE WITH AROUND 1 INCH APPEARING LIKELY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. PAST SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL SO HAVE BLENDED
IN LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS START THE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SHOW AN
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTED THE WEDGE PATTERN WILL
DISSIPATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
THE TIMING. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. THERE
WILL BE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY.
THE MODELS INDICATED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE
WILL BE STRONGER IN THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AT AGS AND DNL AND WE FORECASTED MORE
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE.
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY WEAK. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH THE CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
SHOWER CHANCE. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COMBINED WITH
RELEASES FROM PARR RESERVOIR AND LAKE MURRAY WILL PRODUCES RISES
ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST
BELOW THE ADVISORY STAGE OF 10 FEET AT COLUMBIA TODAY. A CREST
NEAR FLOOD STAGE OF 115 FEET AT CAROLINA EASTMAN MAY OCCUR TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE THREE RIVERS
GREENWAY AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM FROM COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE
CONGAREE NATIONAL PARK. ALL OTHER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IN THE HEADWATERS SUNDAY COULD
LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171338
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
938 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR
EAST MONDAY BUT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IF FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATE DIMINISHED ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY WITH THE
WEDGE PATTERN DISSIPATING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW
THE GREATER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AFFECTING
THE SOUTH PART TODAY. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED
SHOWER COVERAGE. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK. THE MODELS ALSO
INDICATE WEAK SHEAR. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ISOLATED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TODAY BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DISSIPATING
WEDGE PATTERN. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY
SUPPORTING THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THERE MAY BE AREAS
OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS
THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WERE CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
OPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...NUDGING A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY APPEARS
WEAK SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS SOUTH. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND RIDGE DOWN THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSTATE WITH AROUND 1 INCH APPEARING LIKELY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. PAST SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL SO HAVE BLENDED
IN LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS START THE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SHOW AN
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTED THE WEDGE PATTERN WILL
DISSIPATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
THE TIMING. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. THERE
WILL BE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY.
THE MODELS INDICATED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE
WILL BE STRONGER IN THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AT AGS AND DNL AND WE FORECASTED MORE
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE.
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY WEAK. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH THE CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
SHOWER CHANCE. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COMBINED WITH
RELEASES FROM PARR RESERVOIR AND LAKE MURRAY WILL PRODUCES RISES
ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST
BELOW THE ADVISORY STAGE OF 10 FEET AT COLUMBIA TODAY. A CREST
NEAR FLOOD STAGE OF 115 FEET AT CAROLINA EASTMAN MAY OCCUR TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE THREE RIVERS
GREENWAY AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM FROM COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE
CONGAREE NATIONAL PARK. ALL OTHER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IN THE HEADWATERS SUNDAY COULD
LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TODAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IF FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATE DIMINISHED ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY WITH THE
WEDGE PATTERN DISSIPATING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW
THE GREATER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AFFECTING
THE SOUTH PART TODAY. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED
SHOWER COVERAGE. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK. THE MODELS ALSO
INDICATE WEAK SHEAR. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ISOLATED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TODAY BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DISSIPATING
WEDGE PATTERN. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY
SUPPORTING THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THERE MAY BE AREAS
OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS
THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WERE CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
OPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...NUDGING A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY APPEARS
WEAK SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS SOUTH. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND RIDGE DOWN THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSTATE WITH AROUND 1 INCH APPEARING LIKELY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. PAST SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL SO HAVE BLENDED
IN LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS START THE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SHOW AN
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTED THE WEDGE PATTERN WILL
DISSIPATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
THE TIMING. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. THERE
WILL BE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY.
THE MODELS INDICATED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE
WILL BE STRONGER IN THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AT AGS AND DNL AND WE FORECASTED MORE
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE.
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY WEAK. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH THE CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
SHOWER CHANCE. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COMBINED WITH
RELEASES FROM PARR RESERVOIR AND LAKE MURRAY WILL PRODUCES RISES
ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST
BELOW THE ADVISORY STAGE OF 10 FEET AT COLUMBIA TODAY. A CREST
NEAR FLOOD STAGE OF 115 FEET AT CAROLINA EASTMAN MAY OCCUR TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE THREE RIVERS
GREENWAY AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM FROM COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE
CONGAREE NATIONAL PARK. ALL OTHER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IN THE HEADWATERS SUNDAY COULD
LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 171038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TODAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IF FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATE DIMINISHED ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY WITH THE
WEDGE PATTERN DISSIPATING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW
THE GREATER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AFFECTING
THE SOUTH PART TODAY. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED
SHOWER COVERAGE. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK. THE MODELS ALSO
INDICATE WEAK SHEAR. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ISOLATED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TODAY BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DISSIPATING
WEDGE PATTERN. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY
SUPPORTING THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THERE MAY BE AREAS
OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS
THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WERE CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
OPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...NUDGING A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INSTABILITY APPEARS
WEAK SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS SOUTH. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND RIDGE DOWN THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC QPF SHOWS THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSTATE WITH AROUND 1 INCH APPEARING LIKELY IN
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. PAST SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL SO HAVE BLENDED
IN LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS START THE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SHOW AN
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTED THE WEDGE PATTERN WILL
DISSIPATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
THE TIMING. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. THERE
WILL BE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY.
THE MODELS INDICATED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE
WILL BE STRONGER IN THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AT AGS AND DNL AND WE FORECASTED MORE
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE.
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY WEAK. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH THE CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
SHOWER CHANCE. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COMBINED WITH
RELEASES FROM PARR RESERVOIR AND LAKE MURRAY WILL PRODUCES RISES
ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST
BELOW THE ADVISORY STAGE OF 10 FEET AT COLUMBIA TODAY. A CREST
NEAR FLOOD STAGE OF 115 FEET AT CAROLINA EASTMAN MAY OCCUR TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE THREE RIVERS
GREENWAY AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM FROM COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE
CONGAREE NATIONAL PARK. ALL OTHER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IN THE HEADWATERS SUNDAY COULD
LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171037
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TODAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IF FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATE DIMINISHED ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY WITH THE
WEDGE PATTERN DISSIPATING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW
THE GREATER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AFFECTING
THE SOUTH PART TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH INCREASING POPS.
THE ARW AND SPC WRF DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. THE
HRRR IS TRENDING WITH GREATER COVERAGE APPROACHING THE CSRA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE WEAK
SHEAR. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DISSIPATING WEDGE PATTERN.
THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY SUPPORTING THE
COOLER GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THERE MAY BE AREAS
OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS
THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WERE CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MAINLY DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS START THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE GFS
AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN
SUGGESTED THE WEDGE PATTERN WILL DISSIPATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE TIMING. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
DIMINISH WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. THERE WILL BE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY. THE MODELS INDICATED FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER IN THE SOUTH.
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AT AGS
AND DNL AND WE FORECASTED MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS AT THESE
TERMINALS THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE SPC WRF AND ARW MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE. THE HRRR IS TRENDING WITH GREATER
COVERAGE APPROACHING THE CSRA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS THE BREAK
DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP INSTABILITY
WEAK. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED
WITH THE CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
SHOWER CHANCE. THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COMBINED WITH
RELEASES FROM PARR RESERVOIR AND LAKE MURRAY WILL PRODUCES RISES
ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST
BELOW THE ADVISORY STAGE OF 10 FEET AT COLUMBIA TODAY. A CREST
NEAR FLOOD STAGE OF 115 FEET AT CAROLINA EASTMAN MAY OCCUR TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE THREE RIVERS
GREENWAY AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM FROM COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE
CONGAREE NATIONAL PARK. ALL OTHER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IN THE HEADWATERS SUNDAY COULD
LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 171037
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TODAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IF FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATE DIMINISHED ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY WITH THE
WEDGE PATTERN DISSIPATING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW
THE GREATER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AFFECTING
THE SOUTH PART TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH INCREASING POPS.
THE ARW AND SPC WRF DISPLAY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. THE
HRRR IS TRENDING WITH GREATER COVERAGE APPROACHING THE CSRA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS
WILL HELP KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE WEAK
SHEAR. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DISSIPATING WEDGE PATTERN.
THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY SUPPORTING THE
COOLER GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THERE MAY BE AREAS
OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS
THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WERE CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MAINLY DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS START THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE GFS
AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN
SUGGESTED THE WEDGE PATTERN WILL DISSIPATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE TIMING. THE MODELS TYPICALLY
DIMINISH WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. THERE WILL BE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY. THE MODELS INDICATED FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WILL BE STRONGER IN THE SOUTH.
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AT AGS
AND DNL AND WE FORECASTED MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS AT THESE
TERMINALS THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE SPC WRF AND ARW MODELS DISPLAY
SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE. THE HRRR IS TRENDING WITH GREATER
COVERAGE APPROACHING THE CSRA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS THE BREAK
DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP INSTABILITY
WEAK. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED
WITH THE CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
SHOWER CHANCE. THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COMBINED WITH
RELEASES FROM PARR RESERVOIR AND LAKE MURRAY WILL PRODUCES RISES
ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST
BELOW THE ADVISORY STAGE OF 10 FEET AT COLUMBIA TODAY. A CREST
NEAR FLOOD STAGE OF 115 FEET AT CAROLINA EASTMAN MAY OCCUR TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE THREE RIVERS
GREENWAY AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM FROM COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE
CONGAREE NATIONAL PARK. ALL OTHER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IN THE HEADWATERS SUNDAY COULD
LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170538
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
138 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TODAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IF FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATE DIMINISHED ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY WITH THE
WEDGE PATTERN DISSIPATING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW
THE GREATER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AFFECTING
THE SOUTH PART TODAY. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED
SHOWER COVERAGE. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK. THE MODELS ALSO
INDICATE WEAK SHEAR. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ISOLATED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TODAY BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DISSIPATING
WEDGE PATTERN. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY
SUPPORTING THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THERE MAY BE AREAS
OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS
THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WERE CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS START THE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SHOW AN
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTED THE WEDGE PATTERN WILL
DISSIPATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
THE TIMING. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. THERE
WILL BE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY.
THE MODELS INDICATED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE
WILL BE STRONGER IN THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AT AGS AND DNL AND WE FORECASTED MORE
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE.
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY WEAK. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH THE CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
SHOWER CHANCE. THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COMBINED WITH
RELEASES FROM PARR RESERVOIR AND LAKE MURRAY WILL PRODUCES RISES
ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST
BELOW THE ADVISORY STAGE OF 10 FEET AT COLUMBIA TODAY. A CREST
NEAR FLOOD STAGE OF 115 FEET AT CAROLINA EASTMAN MAY OCCUR TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE THREE RIVERS
GREENWAY AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM FROM COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE
CONGAREE NATIONAL PARK. ALL OTHER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IN THE HEADWATERS SUNDAY COULD
LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170538
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
138 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TODAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IF FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS INDICATE DIMINISHED ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY WITH THE
WEDGE PATTERN DISSIPATING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS SHOW
THE GREATER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE AFFECTING
THE SOUTH PART TODAY. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED
SHOWER COVERAGE. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK. THE MODELS ALSO
INDICATE WEAK SHEAR. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ISOLATED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TODAY BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DISSIPATING
WEDGE PATTERN. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY
SUPPORTING THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTED CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART. THERE MAY BE AREAS
OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS
THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
WERE CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS START THE
FORECAST. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE SHOW AN
IMPROVING TREND INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SURFACE-BASED LI PATTERN SUGGESTED THE WEDGE PATTERN WILL
DISSIPATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
THE TIMING. THE MODELS TYPICALLY DIMINISH WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. THERE
WILL BE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY.
THE MODELS INDICATED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE
WILL BE STRONGER IN THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AT AGS AND DNL AND WE FORECASTED MORE
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE.
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN SUGGESTS POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
INSTABILITY WEAK. BELIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH THE CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

THE MODELS DISPLAYED LINGERING HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT. THE
GFS HAD MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
SHOWER CHANCE. THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FOG BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WIND PLUS THE NAM FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COMBINED WITH
RELEASES FROM PARR RESERVOIR AND LAKE MURRAY WILL PRODUCES RISES
ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST JUST
BELOW THE ADVISORY STAGE OF 10 FEET AT COLUMBIA TODAY. A CREST
NEAR FLOOD STAGE OF 115 FEET AT CAROLINA EASTMAN MAY OCCUR TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE THREE RIVERS
GREENWAY AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM FROM COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE
CONGAREE NATIONAL PARK. ALL OTHER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IN THE HEADWATERS SUNDAY COULD
LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170249
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

TEMPERATURES CHANGING LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA. IFR CIGS START THE FORECAST BUT LIKELY WILL
FALL INTO LIFR BY 03Z-04Z ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE CIGS SLOWLY RISE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR BUT DO RAISE CIGS TO AROUND 2000 FT BY
LATE AFTERNOON 20Z-21Z. VSBYS ARE A TOUGHER FORECAST AS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE THAT MOVE OVER TERMINALS WILL RESULT IN LOWERED VSBYS TO
IFR AT TIMES BUT EXPECT PREVAILING VSBYS TO BE MVFR/VFR.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRIDAY COULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY
SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL AFTER 16Z. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COMBINED WITH
RELEASES FROM PARR RESERVOIR AND LAKE MURRAY WILL PRODUCES RISES
ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER. THE RIVER IS FORECASTED TO CREST JUST
BELOW THE ADVISORY STAGE OF 10.0 FEET AT COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND CREST
JUST ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 115.0 FEET AT CAROLINA EASTMAN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE
THREE RIVERS GREENWAY AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM FROM COLUMBIA OVER THE
WEEKEND AT THE CONGAREE NATIONAL PARK. ALL OTHER FORECAST POINTS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170249
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1049 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

TEMPERATURES CHANGING LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA. IFR CIGS START THE FORECAST BUT LIKELY WILL
FALL INTO LIFR BY 03Z-04Z ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE CIGS SLOWLY RISE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR BUT DO RAISE CIGS TO AROUND 2000 FT BY
LATE AFTERNOON 20Z-21Z. VSBYS ARE A TOUGHER FORECAST AS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE THAT MOVE OVER TERMINALS WILL RESULT IN LOWERED VSBYS TO
IFR AT TIMES BUT EXPECT PREVAILING VSBYS TO BE MVFR/VFR.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRIDAY COULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY
SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL AFTER 16Z. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COMBINED WITH
RELEASES FROM PARR RESERVOIR AND LAKE MURRAY WILL PRODUCES RISES
ALONG THE CONGAREE RIVER. THE RIVER IS FORECASTED TO CREST JUST
BELOW THE ADVISORY STAGE OF 10.0 FEET AT COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND CREST
JUST ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 115.0 FEET AT CAROLINA EASTMAN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE
THREE RIVERS GREENWAY AND ALSO DOWNSTREAM FROM COLUMBIA OVER THE
WEEKEND AT THE CONGAREE NATIONAL PARK. ALL OTHER FORECAST POINTS
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170004
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
804 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA. IFR CIGS START THE FORECAST BUT LIKELY WILL
FALL INTO LIFR BY 03Z-04Z ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE CIGS SLOWLY RISE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR BUT DO RAISE CIGS TO AROUND 2000 FT BY
LATE AFTERNOON 20Z-21Z. VSBYS ARE A TOUGHER FORECAST AS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE THT MOVE OVER TERMINALS WILL RESULT IN LOWERED VSBYS TO
IFR AT TIMES BUT EXPECT PREVAILING VSBYS TO BE MVFR/VFR.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRIDAY COULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY
SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL AFTER 16Z. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 170004
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
804 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA. IFR CIGS START THE FORECAST BUT LIKELY WILL
FALL INTO LIFR BY 03Z-04Z ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE CIGS SLOWLY RISE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR BUT DO RAISE CIGS TO AROUND 2000 FT BY
LATE AFTERNOON 20Z-21Z. VSBYS ARE A TOUGHER FORECAST AS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE THT MOVE OVER TERMINALS WILL RESULT IN LOWERED VSBYS TO
IFR AT TIMES BUT EXPECT PREVAILING VSBYS TO BE MVFR/VFR.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRIDAY COULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY
SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL AFTER 16Z. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170004
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
804 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA. IFR CIGS START THE FORECAST BUT LIKELY WILL
FALL INTO LIFR BY 03Z-04Z ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE CIGS SLOWLY RISE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR BUT DO RAISE CIGS TO AROUND 2000 FT BY
LATE AFTERNOON 20Z-21Z. VSBYS ARE A TOUGHER FORECAST AS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE THT MOVE OVER TERMINALS WILL RESULT IN LOWERED VSBYS TO
IFR AT TIMES BUT EXPECT PREVAILING VSBYS TO BE MVFR/VFR.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRIDAY COULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY
SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL AFTER 16Z. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 170004
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
804 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

COOL WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA. IFR CIGS START THE FORECAST BUT LIKELY WILL
FALL INTO LIFR BY 03Z-04Z ALL TERMINALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE CIGS SLOWLY RISE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR BUT DO RAISE CIGS TO AROUND 2000 FT BY
LATE AFTERNOON 20Z-21Z. VSBYS ARE A TOUGHER FORECAST AS AREAS OF
DRIZZLE THT MOVE OVER TERMINALS WILL RESULT IN LOWERED VSBYS TO
IFR AT TIMES BUT EXPECT PREVAILING VSBYS TO BE MVFR/VFR.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING THE AREA ON FRIDAY COULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSRA AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY
SHOWERS AT AGS/DNL AFTER 16Z. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 162134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
534 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT PROVIDING LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE TAF SITES. MANY OF THE
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 14Z FRIDAY AS THE WEDGE
BEGINS TO ERODE. THUS HAVE INDICATED CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 162134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
534 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT PROVIDING LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE TAF SITES. MANY OF THE
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 14Z FRIDAY AS THE WEDGE
BEGINS TO ERODE. THUS HAVE INDICATED CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77







000
FXUS62 KCAE 162134
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
534 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT PROVIDING LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE TAF SITES. MANY OF THE
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 14Z FRIDAY AS THE WEDGE
BEGINS TO ERODE. THUS HAVE INDICATED CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
77






000
FXUS62 KCAE 161741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTH WILL CHANCE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT PROVIDING LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE TAF SITES. MANY OF THE
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 14Z FRIDAY AS THE WEDGE
BEGINS TO ERODE. THUS HAVE INDICATED CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161741
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
BEGIN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSING GA GETS CLOSER TO
THE CSRA.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60
SOUTH WILL CHANCE LITTLE OVERNIGHT. KEPT LOWS NEAR
CONSENSUS...RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRENDING SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTING OUR REGION. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE W
CONUS...FOUR CORNERS/FRONT RANGE REGION...THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CANADA. LATEST
MODEL RUNS INDICATE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION
FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOT SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR REGION
UNTIL SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WEDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY ERODE FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE WEDGE ERODING DURING THE MORNING...BUT MODELS TEND
TO ERODE WEDGES TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...WEDGE MAY INDEED ERODE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
APPEARANCE OF SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION...BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NOW APPEARS WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR...WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER
THE REGION...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE COULD LEAD TO
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT RANGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT NT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER ENERGY DIGGING SE FROM W CANADA/PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/N PLAINS. UPPER HIGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE
SAT NT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES WILL
MOVE NE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULF
COAST REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND. AN
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING SW SUNDAY...WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. WITH MODELS SLOWING
PROGRESSIONS OF SYSTEMS DOWN SOME...IT NOW APPEARS AXIS OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAIN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUN NT TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WITH MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODELS SHIFT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT APPEARS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT PROVIDING LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE TAF SITES. MANY OF THE
MODELS INDICATE CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 14Z FRIDAY AS THE WEDGE
BEGINS TO ERODE. THUS HAVE INDICATED CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 161432
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY DOMINATING SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
CHANCES WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN..SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALTHOUGH BEST LIFT SHOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. KEPT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE AREA-WIDE.

LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
GIVEN WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY. HAVE
INDICATED LOWER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 CSRA...WHICH IS OPTIMISTIC.
SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MOST ABUNDANT MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING FRIDAY
MORNING BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY BE TOO QUICK AS IS OFTEN THE CASE.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK FRIDAY MORNING AT AROUND 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY SATURDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED TREND OF FAVORING POPS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE
WEDGE WOULD BE FIRST TO ERODE. RESULTANT DIURNAL HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES COULD PROMOTE SOME SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA
WHICH MAY FUEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR LIMITED. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE REMAINS
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE A
WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL NUDGE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL PULL A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MODELS
MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DISPLAY
SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE SHOULD BE
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
COAST. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST EXPECT BRIEF DRYING
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161432
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY DOMINATING SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
CHANCES WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN..SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALTHOUGH BEST LIFT SHOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. KEPT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE AREA-WIDE.

LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
GIVEN WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY. HAVE
INDICATED LOWER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 CSRA...WHICH IS OPTIMISTIC.
SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MOST ABUNDANT MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING FRIDAY
MORNING BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY BE TOO QUICK AS IS OFTEN THE CASE.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK FRIDAY MORNING AT AROUND 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY SATURDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED TREND OF FAVORING POPS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE
WEDGE WOULD BE FIRST TO ERODE. RESULTANT DIURNAL HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES COULD PROMOTE SOME SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA
WHICH MAY FUEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR LIMITED. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE REMAINS
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE A
WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL NUDGE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL PULL A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MODELS
MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DISPLAY
SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE SHOULD BE
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
COAST. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST EXPECT BRIEF DRYING
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161432
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1032 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY DOMINATING SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
CHANCES WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN..SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALTHOUGH BEST LIFT SHOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. KEPT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE AREA-WIDE.

LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
GIVEN WEDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY. HAVE
INDICATED LOWER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 CSRA...WHICH IS OPTIMISTIC.
SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MOST ABUNDANT MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING FRIDAY
MORNING BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY BE TOO QUICK AS IS OFTEN THE CASE.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK FRIDAY MORNING AT AROUND 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY SATURDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED TREND OF FAVORING POPS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE
WEDGE WOULD BE FIRST TO ERODE. RESULTANT DIURNAL HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES COULD PROMOTE SOME SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA
WHICH MAY FUEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR LIMITED. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE REMAINS
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE A
WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL NUDGE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL PULL A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE MODELS
MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DISPLAY
SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE SHOULD BE
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
COAST. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST EXPECT BRIEF DRYING
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 161131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY DOMINATING SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
CHANCES WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN..SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY
SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DRIZZLE. SOME WIND
SHOULD LIMIT FOG. THE WEDGE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MOST ABUNDANT MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING FRIDAY
MORNING BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY BE TOO QUICK AS IS OFTEN THE CASE.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK FRIDAY MORNING AT AROUND 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY SATURDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED TREND OF FAVORING POPS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE
WEDGE WOULD BE FIRST TO ERODE. RESULTANT DIURNAL HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES COULD PROMOTE SOME SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA
WHICH MAY FUEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR LIMITED. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE REMAINS
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE A
WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL NUDGE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL PULL A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DISPLAY SHALLOW MOISTURE
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND
GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. SOME
WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
COAST. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST EXPECT BRIEF DRYING
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161131
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY DOMINATING SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
CHANCES WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN..SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY
SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DRIZZLE. SOME WIND
SHOULD LIMIT FOG. THE WEDGE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MOST ABUNDANT MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING FRIDAY
MORNING BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY BE TOO QUICK AS IS OFTEN THE CASE.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK FRIDAY MORNING AT AROUND 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY SATURDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED TREND OF FAVORING POPS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE
WEDGE WOULD BE FIRST TO ERODE. RESULTANT DIURNAL HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES COULD PROMOTE SOME SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA
WHICH MAY FUEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR LIMITED. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE REMAINS
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE A
WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL NUDGE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL PULL A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MODELS MAINTAIN
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DISPLAY SHALLOW MOISTURE
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND
GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. SOME
WIND SHOULD LIMIT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
COAST. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST EXPECT BRIEF DRYING
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 161002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
602 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY DOMINATING SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY
SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DRIZZLE. SOME WIND
SHOULD LIMIT FOG. THE WEDGE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MOST ABUNDANT MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING FRIDAY
MORNING BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY BE TOO QUICK AS IS OFTEN THE CASE.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK FRIDAY MORNING AT AROUND 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY SATURDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED TREND OF FAVORING POPS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE
WEDGE WOULD BE FIRST TO ERODE. RESULTANT DIURNAL HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES COULD PROMOTE SOME SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA
WHICH MAY FUEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR LIMITED. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE REMAINS
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE A
WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL NUDGE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL PULL A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MODELS
MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND
GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS. SOME WIND
SHOULD LIMIT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
COAST. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST EXPECT BRIEF DRYING
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KCAE 161002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
602 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY DOMINATING SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY
SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DRIZZLE. SOME WIND
SHOULD LIMIT FOG. THE WEDGE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MOST ABUNDANT MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING FRIDAY
MORNING BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY BE TOO QUICK AS IS OFTEN THE CASE.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK FRIDAY MORNING AT AROUND 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY SATURDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED TREND OF FAVORING POPS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE
WEDGE WOULD BE FIRST TO ERODE. RESULTANT DIURNAL HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES COULD PROMOTE SOME SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA
WHICH MAY FUEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR LIMITED. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE REMAINS
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE A
WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL NUDGE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL PULL A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MODELS
MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND
GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS. SOME WIND
SHOULD LIMIT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
COAST. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST EXPECT BRIEF DRYING
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KCAE 161002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
602 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDINESS WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY DOMINATING SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY
SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DRIZZLE. SOME WIND
SHOULD LIMIT FOG. THE WEDGE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE COOLER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TODAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE MOST ABUNDANT MOISTURE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING FRIDAY
MORNING BUT BELIEVE THIS MAY BE TOO QUICK AS IS OFTEN THE CASE.
MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK FRIDAY MORNING AT AROUND 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY SATURDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED TREND OF FAVORING POPS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE
WEDGE WOULD BE FIRST TO ERODE. RESULTANT DIURNAL HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES COULD PROMOTE SOME SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA
WHICH MAY FUEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR LIMITED. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE REMAINS
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR
NORMAL...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE A
WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL NUDGE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST AND PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL PULL A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. MONDAY SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS SHIFT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MODELS
MAINTAIN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDINESS WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND
GFS MOS WERE CONSISTENT INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS. SOME WIND
SHOULD LIMIT FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
COAST. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST EXPECT BRIEF DRYING
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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